Lucid is hosting a big Lucid Investor Day event in New York this morning, and your humble The Morning Dump writer was invited to sit in on a day of discussion and announcements centered around the EV company’s path towards profitability. Will I get to see the new, midsize Lucid? That’s the hope.
I don’t think I’ve ever done a live blog version of The Morning Dump before. Doing a Live Blog in 2026 is already a questionable activity. It’s a little like taping songs off of the radio, which is a thing you technically can do although basically no one does. The Live Blog existed as the only real medium for quickly sharing news on the web for a couple of years until social media took over that role.
Social media is mostly trash now, so I’m going to give it a shot. I’m also going to do it in proper, linear order, as opposed to always putting the most recent news at the top. This is my little concession to readability.
6:55 AM: I’m On The Train And Honda Has Canceled All Its EV Plans, I Think
It’s already quite the day! I planned to make breakfast for my family and lunch my daughter before leaving, and even managed to get up at around 4:45 am in order to accomplish this. I was ahead! And then I quickly pulled up Honda’s big financial report to see if there was anything that might fit with a TMD centered around electrification. Oh boy!
Because of the way timezones work, Honda put out the news at the end of their day, which just happened to be around the time I woke up. The news is that Honda is canceling all of their new EVs planned for America. At least I hope that’s what the release said. Parsing releases before the sun comes up isn’t particularly fun.
I texted someone at Lucid with the news, and also an apology that I might look like crap since this was cutting into my shower time. His reply was:
“We’re continuing to power ahead…”
One less competitor!
7:57: Snacks Are Being Given Out, Presentation Is About To Begin
I arrived on time, somehow, and I’m now surrounded by coffee and snacks as we get ready to start. I think the big news, so far, is what was announced yesterday: CarPlay and AndroidAuto are being rolled out to Gravity customers via an OTA update.
8:05: AM Marc Winterhoff Is Here
It was confirmed to me earlier that there are two midsize vehicles coming out, once of which we’ll see today. There’s the Lucid Cosmos and then the Lucid Earth, with the Cosmos coming first (in proper Genesis order).
The pitch that I was given by our friendly Lucid PR person was that this was going to be like a group of great chefs attempting to open up a fast casual restaurant (think Danny Meyer and Steak Shack). Maybe slightly more humble ingredients, but the same sharp minds.
As you can see in the graphic above, the goal is to find margins in order to achieve profitability by “the late decade.” So not this year. Or next year. Maybe the year after. Not that Lucid is necessarily starting off bad, with the brag that it’s by far the #1 EV luxury sedan (ahead of the Tesla Model S) and, if it was put against all luxury sedans, it would be third behind the BMW 7-Series and Mercedes S-Class. The Gravity as well, at least relatively, is doing well.
As Winterhoff half-jokes, Lucid is the only company to have all of its cars on the Car And Driver 10 Best list for 2026. Sure, Lucid only has two vehicles, but those two vehicles are the best in their class at the moment.
So how is profitability achieved? The obvious ones are making the cars they currently sell cheaper to produce, and adding more affordable midsize vehicles. With the company’s Uber deal, it means more robotaxis, and Lucid wants to lead there. Finally, it sounds like Lucid is still committed to selling its vehicle software platform, similar to what Rivian did with Volkswagen.
8:31 AM: What Is This? A Lucid-Developed Robotaxi?
Ohhhhh cars under sheets. Everyone loves cars under sheets. But is that an Uber van? Just a rendering of what a concept could be, but this probably means that Lucid is looking to develop something that isn’t just a Gravity with a sensor suite.
8:39 AM: We Are Just At The Bottom Of The ‘Trough Of Disillusionment’
Erwin Raphael, SVP of Global Revenue at Lucid Motors, has the quote of the day when talking about what his projects are for the EV market going forward. Standing in front of a graphic showing the hype slowing down, he said the company is bullish, but admits “We are at the bottom of what we call the ‘Trough of Disillusionment.'” Damn, that’s good. I wish I’d have thought of that.
Quick note: Thanks to Alfa Romasochist For pointing out the hype cycle’s source.
8:51 AM: Ok, Here We Are, Talking About Midsize
Derek Jenkins, head of Design and Brand, is here to talk about the new midsize vehicles. You can hear him above on our live podcast.
I think the juxtaposition of Honda pulling out while you’re headed to a Lucid event has made me realize something.
I pawed at a pair of Lucids for about an hour in their Boston showroom a couple weeks ago. They are very different cars. I can’t think of a Honda since the NSX that was as big a departure from ‘normal’ as either Lucid is. They just look and feel different from legacy cars. Rivian has that feel too.
Do I think that means success? Probably not. The world is too unstable right now. Big dollar EVs only survive for as long as the well off decide they survive. If the luxury items don’t keep them afloat long enough to bring more pedestrian cars to market, they’ll fail.
Legacy manufacturers can ride out rough times by leaning on strong markets, and cutting weak ones off like a dead tree limb. Their goal is to always have somewhere to hide. The Lucids of the world don’t have that luxury.
Should’ve figured out that whole “how to make money” part before lighting the match…
The “Trough of Disillusionment” comes from an analyst firm called Gartner. There’s a Wikipedia article for the Gartner Hype Cycle that summarizes it pretty well.
See also AI, currently passing the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” and rapidly beginning to plummet…
Yes, thank you!
I think the PR team dropped the ball on this one. The Lucid PR person said that this was going to be like a group of great chefs attempting to open up a fast casual restaurant and then served a buffet of snacks?
It should have been various breakfast sandwiches wrapped in Lucid wrappers, served by interns with Lucid aprons and hats on.
Nice 🙂
I’m much more a savoury breakfast fan over sweet.
The people who put together these breakfast bars need to really consider adding some snacking bacon.
You had me at bacon, granted that’s the last word. It allowed me to savor it.
“I planned to make breakfast for my family and launch my daughter before leaving”
Launch your daughter? Via rocket? Trebuchet? Springboard?
How’d the launch go?
Hopefuly with better success than Space X has..
Hah, I mean, hopefully she made it to school.
I’ll take a cheese danish please.