I attended the Houston Auto Show in 1996 as a car-pilled 12-year-old, and I distinctly remember a concept for a “crossover” vehicle from some random supplier. It wasn’t quite a car, but not a body-on-frame SUV. I talked to the reps for the company, and they said it was the future. We’d all be driving crossovers! They were not wrong, and the Toyota RAV4s that were slowly filling the streets around that time were a testament to their prognostications.
It’s now 30 years later, and there are plenty of crossovers. Too many crossovers? The latest Bank of America “Car Wars” report says we’ve probably reached crossover saturation, finally. The percentage of new car models that are crossovers might even go down in 2029 by a decent margin.
As a regular reader of The Morning Dump, you’re probably aware that one of the reasons we’ll see a drop in crossovers as a total percentage of the market is that automakers are cancelling EV projects, and a lot of those were supposed to be CUVs. One company that’s pushed forward is General Motors, and they say it’s working out for them. It’s also working out for BYD, but in a way that’s destabilizing the local and global economies.
Tesla was the original EV disruptor, but now it’s been disrupted, and some big analysts are saying the stock is a little overweight.
The Crossover Saturation Point Has Been Reached
You will not be surprised to learn that Crossovers, which were merely one option for many years, have suddenly become the default option. According to Bank of America’s “Car Wars” report, from 2016 to 2025, crossovers made up 50% of new model launches by volume, compared to just 25% for light trucks (SUVs and trucks), 11% for small cars, 5% for luxury/sports cars, and just 9% for mid-sized/large cars.
The Crossover is a result of both taste and the inevitable carcinization of the car market. People want big things that have a lot of space, thus the success of wagons, followed by minivans, followed by SUVs. What people thought they needed didn’t change, but preference and fashion did dictate the form in which that functionality would be delivered.
A crossover, though, is sort of a mix of SUV, minivan, and wagon, depending on what your particular flavor is. A Cadillac XT6 is a minivan without sliding doors, just like a Subaru Outback is a wagon that shops at REI, or a Bronco Sport is an SUV that doesn’t go to the gym.
Looking at the chart above, you’ll see the non-volume weighted percentage of new car reveals (either brand new models or significant refreshes). You’ll see small cars vanish as they’re replaced by crossovers both large and small. That changes a bit in the last couple of years as EV crossovers and new electric sedans started to come on the market, as well as a new Camry and some other reveals. In 2029, there’s another relative decline in crossovers, reflecting both a cancellation of EV projects and the full-size truck lifecycle.
As BofA puts it:
Since the MY1997 launch of the Toyota RAV4 and the Honda CR-V, crossover utility vehicles (or CUVs) have been the fastest growing vehicle segment in the US. However, that trend is finally slowing and may be plateauing. Specifically, 79 of the 159 new models we forecast for MY2026-29, or 47% of estimated new volume, will be CUVs. Although, there is still a focus, the relative mix of new CUVs drops meaningfully through MY2029. The CUV segment now appears saturated by almost all automakers increasing competition and putting the segments’ profitability at risk.
This is somewhat analogous to the proliferation of light truck nameplates in the early 2000s (Exhibit 11), but the CUV proliferation has been more than 2x and broadbased. It is unlikely that the CUVs will drop like trucks did, but it will be interesting to watch.
Basically, most car companies can’t necessarily make more money by releasing a bunch more crossovers. Where would a new crossover even fit within Toyota’s lineup?
GM Releases Non-Quarterly EV Sales To Brag About EV Sales
General Motors decided in 2018 that it didn’t want to do monthly sales releases, shifting instead to a quarterly number. As a data person and a journalist this kinda sucked, but I suppose this is a not my pig, not my farm situation. GM can do whatever it wants.
As proof, GM decided to release some EV sales numbers to brag about becoming the 2nd biggest EV company in the United States (After Tesla, supplanting Ford).
In the 2025 first quarter, Chevrolet became the fastest growing domestic EV brand, surpassing Ford. For the year through May, Chevrolet has sold more than 37,000 EVs in the U.S., compared to 34,000 for Ford. GM will report second quarter sales on July 1.
GM’s portfolio includes highly capable full-size trucks with impressive, available range like the Chevrolet Silverado EV, GMC Sierra EV, and GMC HUMMER EV; groundbreaking luxury SUVs from Cadillac like the Escalade IQ; and the budget-friendly Chevrolet Equinox EV.
May was GM’s second-best month in history for EV sales, which follows 94% year-over-year growth in the first quarter. In the first two months of the second quarter, GM’s share of the U.S. EV market was about 15.5%, more than double our position a year ago and approaching the company’s national market share of 17%.
General Motors makes good electric cars. It makes a lot of them. It even makes a relatively affordable EV in the form of the $35,000 Equinox EV, which I drove and was impressed with! Some of this is fun with numbers, because if I could do two pullups last year, and now I can do four pullups, I’ve increased the number of pullups I can do by 100% (note: I’m not sure I could do that many pullups).
Still, it’s an accomplishment, and GM is proving that it can still find new customers for electric cars in spite of headwinds.
Everyone Is Mad At BYD
Yikes. Just… yikes. BYD is probably going to be the biggest electric automaker in the world this year, thanks both to building affordable cars of reasonable quality and to a brutal, never-ending price war. The company is bringing a specific type of energy to its endeavors that would make Patti LuPone blush.
Like LuPone, the rest of the industry is mad at BYD, and the country’s leaders are starting to recognize that a victory for BYD over Tesla might be a pyrrhic one. Why? While China is not a profit-focused country in the EV space at the moment, carmakers are trying to lower costs by squeezing suppliers until they pop like a homemade stress ball.
Some auto manufacturers have been asking steelmakers to reduce the price of steel plates used in vehicles by more than 10% since last year, the China Iron and Steel Association said in a statement published in China Metallurgical News on Tuesday. Some carmakers have also delayed payments to mills by months, it said.
The country’s EV industry is in the throes of a vicious price war, sending share prices tumbling and prompting government intervention to try and prop up the market. It’s a fresh headwind for Chinese steel mills who have been grappling with a yearslong property market crisis and, more recently, slowing economic growth caused by US-led trade wars.
And that’s not all, from Nikkei Asia, BYD’s also putting pressure on global rubber futures:
International prices for natural rubber are plummeting as price cuts by major Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD triggered concern that a possible price war in the country’s auto sector will weigh on tire prices.
Speculation that price reductions for EVs and plug-in hybrids will lead to downward pressure on tire prices has resulted in a drop in the natural rubber market. Tires account for 70% of natural rubber demand.
Benchmark rubber futures on the Osaka Exchange fell 4% on June 3 to 280 yen ($2) per kilogram, the lowest price since February 2024. Though futures prices had tumbled after U.S. President Donald Trump announced his sweeping tariffs in early April, they rebounded later as tariff tensions between Washington and Beijing eased.
Dang, I was going to pay for my kid’s college with the collection of WHAM-O Super Balls I’ve been keeping under my bed.
Tesla Gets Downgraded Again
Tesla CEO Elon Musk, fresh from reportedly getting in a fight with the Secretary of the Treasury, is now having to wrestle with a couple of downgrades from analysts, as Bloomberg reports:
Both Argus Research and Baird cut the stock to the equivalent of hold ratings, cementing Tesla’s reputation as the least-loved megacap stock among analysts. Shares fell 1.6% in premarket trading.
The downgrades mark the latest hurdle for Tesla, shares of which are down about 27% in 2025, making it the weakest performer of the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla shares had rallied in the wake of Trump’s reelection, which Musk vigorously supported, but are down almost 40% off their peak in December.
Much of the stock’s recent decline came after the high-profile blowup between Musk and Trump last week. While Musk subsequently suggested he was open to making amends, the tensions are seen as a significant headwind overhanging the shares.
Musk deleted a lot of his mean tweets and the stock price went back up, so maybe it’s just that easy.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I adore Talking Heads. An all-time band. Sometimes my favorite band. I went to see Stop Making Sense in a theater in 2024 because I care. For reasons mostly of timing, the band never released an official video for “Psycho Killer.” The Internet is weird, and an older band’s most popular songs now might not be what was most popular back then. Why is Pavement’s “Spit on a Stranger” so popular? Who knows? Partially due to Guitar Hero, maybe, “Psycho Killer” has had almost double the number of Spotify streams as the band’s second-most-streamed song. Anyway, it was worth the wait to get Saoirse Ronan in a Talking Heads video.
The Big Question
What’s your favorite crossover?
Top Photo Credit: Toyota
What’s your favorite crossover? Ford Flex, which I really, really want to take one and swap in a S550 GT500 drivetrain into, because that’s my kind of
kinkSEMA buildAfter spending a week riding around in an Electric BYD I would say it good enough. Some of the interior lighting was fun and interesting as the lights around the interior door handles changed as you locked or unlocked it. Otherwise I didn’t feel like there was anything too special or bad about it.
I think it’s safe to say we’ve fully crossed over at this point.
When the original highlander came out I hated it. I thought it was one of the dumbest things out there. Then a few years ago I looked at it again and went that’s actually not bad looking it’s the right shape.It has that late 90s early 00s Japanese style just slightly bigger but it’s not that big for today’s standards. I had driven a regular and didn’t think much of it and had driven the hybrid and thought it was was to good to look like that. When I came around to them I got a hybrid dirt cheap and realized it drove better then I remembered so I ended up with a fleet of them. The hybrids go for less because people are scared of them. It’s basically the first performance hybrid. I still see tons of them on the road.
Does peak crossover mean the return of the station wagon/estate/break?
Where would a new crossover even fit within Toyota’s lineup?
A lot of my surfer friends like to use small car based vans like the VW Caddy and their is a whole segment their with very few competitors.
A replacement for Toyotas original crossover the Tercel 4wd – something practical, roomy and compact like the TJ Cruiser concept from a few years ago a Wagovan!
https://global.toyota/en/download/20533621
I don’t think I have a favorite crossover.
I don’t hate them though, some have pretty decent styling, and there’s no arguing with the fact that most of them are practical. I’m partial to the ones with a more squared off cargo area, we recently had a Telluride rental that was pretty nice, and the cargo area was relatively square and huge.
As a current 4Runner and former ZJ Grand Cherokee owner, I appreciate SUV’s with genuine offroad capability. Some crossovers come close, but without low range are not quite there.
The new Pilot and Passport are nice, though they barely get better economy than a 4Runner. I also oddly like the look of the newer Rogue and Chevy Equinox, though I wouldn’t want to own either.
I guess my fav would be the previous gen Subaru Outback.
The 4Runner is actually rated higher by the EPA (both hybrid and non-hybrid forms), but is burdened with perhaps the most rattly, dreary, and unenjoyable powertrain on the market. I’ll take it as a win for Honda that they can muster a fuel economy rating, with such a good V6, so similar to such an economy focused turd from Toyota. Yes, the 4Runner will eat it for lunch capability-wise, but boy does that powertrain ruin everything about every truck/SUV it’s put in for me. Plus, lots of people have been complaining about not getting anywhere close to EPA ratings for T24A equipped vehicles so, the T24A ends up being a rattle trap, pretty gutless, and not very economic…sweet.
If I wanted some form of off roady CUV/SUV, I think it would be hard to look past the Passport, or Bronco depending on just how off roady you want. The additional couple hundred, to almost $1k, in gas per year to not be miserable driving every would 100% be worth it to me.
My only complaint with the Passport is the price; $47k starting price seems bonkers.
For sure, personally, I’d go for the Bronco every time, it seems like a steal compared to the 4Runner and Passport, but I get the appeal.
Talking Heads is one of my all-time faves too Matt, and thanks for pointing out the new video. I’d seen it come up in suggestions recently, but didn’t bother to click on it, because the cynic in me couldn’t rationalize there being a new official video for the song, since it came out so long ago. And of course, I assumed that the official video for it was made of footage from the movie.
I resolve to try not to be such a cynic in the future, and to be a bit more open-minded about things that don’t seem, at first glance, to make a whole lot of sense. 🙂
I wish society could find a competent way to encourage efficiency, but with the government likely backing off CAFE it will hopefully mean more coupes and sedans and actual wagons (along with manuals being saved). People like to sit high, but the CAFE games don’t help perverting the market.
It all gets somewhat arbitrary. I had a 2020 Explorer, and with RWD, unibody, IRS, and 300 HP it was basically a bit tall sport wagon (not even that pudgy by modern standards).
I think with a population continues to age and gain weight, CUVs/SUVs are going to remain enormously popular. “Sitting high” can be a matter of being able to get into and out of the car without pain.
I hope you’re right, though. 🙂
My late grandfather ended up in a crossover for this reason. He mostly drove sedans but once he started having mobility issues he ended up getting a crossover because the seat was the perfect height to just slide in and out of.
Yeah, I’m 40 and I’m pretty fit but I have to remind myself not to grunt and heave myself out of my GTI.
That graph took awhile to figure out – but it’s just new models launched in a given year, almost a meaningless statistic. Of course if they launch a bunch of new CUVs one year, the next year it’s going to drop.
I just remember when the original one came out I used to make the joke “to what automotive question is the answer the Toyota Venza?” and now you look at the automotive market and it’s like oh it answered approximately 90% of the market.
I’m all for automotive companies led by gearheads and yet the above conundrum is why they don’t let gearheads run the company.
I found the original Venza and Edge to be just about the perfect formula for human w.r.t. size and driving position. I was pretty surprised at how much I liked it. That said, I do not like SUV’s, and prefer less lifted vehicles. But, I could not deny how perfect the OG Edge felt.
The Edge/MKX (now Nautilus) are indeed a great size, and all the more pity that they don’t seem to have gotten/get the attention of the Escape and Explorer. The secret sauce it basically taking a mid-size sedan and turning it into a tall wagon. Much like the Volvo XC70, first generation or two of the Highlander and the aforementioned original Venza, the Murano (despite its awful CVT), and so on.
Fuzzy math: The flipside of the fun with market share are those clickbait headlines like “Tesla profit drops 90%!”
As mostly non-businessy humans, we like to think of zero being a starting point or a floor. But there’s a lot of room below break-even to lose money. And the flipside is that a company can do just a tiny bit better the next quarter and the headline is “Profit quadrupled!” and the whole time we’re talking about 1% or less of total sales.
It’s a much bigger story in a consistently profitable, high-margin business, but cars don’t really fit that mold.
“What’s your favorite crossover?”
Any one that sees me coming from behind allows me to pass on the left.
I can’t hate on CUVs. Historically I have been a fan of hatchbacks with a manual transmission as they combine practicality (I put my dog in the hatch) and fun. My car ownership has included a Mazda Protege 5, Ford SVT Focus, Mazdaspeed 3, and now a base model 2018 Mazda 3.
If I were in the market for a car today, a smaller CUV might be what I’d buy. My work commute is so short that having a manual trans for fun doesn’t mean anything anymore. I still want the practicality of a hatchback. At that point, the only advantages car-based hatchback has are handling and fuel economy, but handling is kind of a moot point on a commuter vehicle, and fuel economy on newer smaller CUVs is pretty good, so a CUV offers everything I need. Which is probably a sign I’m getting old, but I’m okay with that.
IMO your chart shows that like the general public, CUV’s are like a herd of sheep. They all eat whatever is in the pasture.
Yes, in the same way that the bottom of the Mariana Trench is a little damp.
Would diesel ignite at the bottom of the trench??
“Tesla stock is a little overweight”
Point of order; Overweight – means undervalued – originates from goods being weighed by merchants. This obvious mistake jumped out at me, not just for phrasing implying he meant the opposite, but TSLA p/e-179.48 is insane!
F(Ford) p/e- 8.49 for reference.
The first time I saw a first generation Nissan Murano I was amazed, along the futuristic Nissan Maxima and Quest.
Most CUV’s dont overly appeal to me, but parts of them do. I really want to build an AWD 2nd Gen CRX, and that takes parts from a CRV, so I really like the CRV for that.
I think it would be hilarious to take a Porsche Cayenne v8 and swap a vintage Grand Wagoneer body on to one, which would make that Wagoneer a unibody thing.
Otherwise, I don’t really LOVE any CUVs I can think of. But if Unibody is what makes it a crossover, the current Durango I like.
I want to build a CR-Z with a K20 and the AWD bits from a CR-V and then paint it like the Car and Driver two-engine CR-X. But so many modern cars are only interesting for what bits we could steal to make an interesting car.
Deep thoughts without Jack Handy: “Crossover” is a pretty lame attempt to classify something, and once a segment hits 50%+ of the market, is it really still even a singular segment?
It reminds me of “alternative music” in the early 90s until suddenly, wait a minute, this is what most people are listening to…but we kept the name, then started assigning “pop” or “arena rock” to the other stuff as a differentiator.
Anyway, I don’t hate CUVs. Because they’re not a monolith, they’re basically almost every hatchback, wagon, or roadgoing SUV out there! It means nothing anymore.
We should have just called them “tall wagons” and eventually they’d drop the modifier and just be wagons, with the remaining sedan-height ones becoming “low wagons” as a retronym.
Is Matt a Bronco Sport?
Forget crossovers, look at the graph for light trucks! Reach for the stars baby! You can do it!
I’ve never understood the hate for CUV’s. There’s different vehicles for different people and their different needs. I have owned wagons, BOF SUV’s, sedans, hatchbacks and now a CRV.
My CRV is better in the winter (Ontario) and for camping than our wagons were; it has higher ground clearance so when you load them up with gear and people, they weren’t 2 inches off the ground. It’s good on gas and easy to park.
I would love to have numerous vehicles for each thing, but since the price of vehicles is very high, having a single CUV is better (in my use case) than a single wagon, or sedan for that matter. Again, I’m active and have lots of stuff (crap) for my activities so I need space. It’s so much easier to load my CRV with the seats flat than any sedan or hatchback and not worry about bottoming out on a tree root or pothole (again, Ontario).
We need more small (affordable) trucks* like the Maverick. Hybridize everything.
There’s a good chunk of the minority who takes pride in loudly eschewing things the majority likes. “Iphones aren’t that good. I don’t even know who Taylor Swift is, and I’m proud of it. There is no benefit to driving a CUV.”
It’s okay to be a little basic, y’all. It’s okay.
Agreed. I’ve also noticed many in the car community also like to spew back whatever take Clarkson may have had- no matter how long ago (or wrong) it was. Or, are just so binary and narrow minded they can’t fathom how a different vehicle other than their own could be beneficial to other people’s needs.
The problem a lot of people have is the sense they’re crowding everything else off the market.
Favorite crossover is and always will be a first gen Rav4 convertible. I still need to find myself a good one of those.
I was first on scene for a vehicle rollover on a backroad, it was an immaculate Suzuki X-90 that was now a write-off. Such a shame cause it was manual, 4WD, T-tops and underneath not a spot of rust.
The driver was fine, but the poor X-90.
I desperately want a JDM import with the BEAMS 3S-GE and a manual, but finding nice ones stateside is hard, and they’re not cheap. Tiny wheelbase, nearly 200hp, manual, but a RAV-4, just excellent.
Yep. I’m afraid I’m priced out of that option, because I’m too cheap for what they go for these days, but you never know. When I’m ready to let go of the Eunos it’s high on my list to look for.
Riddle me this, how does Toyota having 9 crossovers and SUVs 15 if you count all of the variations that do not cannibalize each others sales but Toyota shits the bed at the thought of a third compact truck below the Tacoma because it will cannibalize Tacoma Tundra sales?
Smaller target audience I would imagine. Less people are buying Tacomas than are buying Rav4s, so the cannibalization would be more noticeable? No evidence to back this up, but that’s my thought.
Perhaps if you provide a cheaper product (it would have to be at least to an extent) then most people who stretched to get those other options might choose the cheaper option. Cheaper product = smaller profit.
Been saying this for years. How is Toyota so behind on a small(er) affordable truck? How are they even behind on not offering a Bronco/Wrangler competitor? I want a Hybrid Wrangler, just not made by Jeep. I want a Maverick, just not made by Ford. C’mon Toyota the Maverick is in its second generation and they haven’t even come out with a single competitor yet. Even comparing the specs for similar Rangers vs. Tacoma they are behind.
At least bring the 79 series here or the 2.8L diesel engine option for civilians if you can’t fill the other gaps.
The Land Cruiser 79 should have been Toyotas answer to the Jeep Wrangler, but instead Toyota gave us the (F) ake (J)eep
The Tacoma is a best-seller nameplate, like the RAV4 and the Camry. Protecting that volume and title are paramount.
Other models don’t really cannibalize if they aren’t intended for volume in the same way. Toyota will sell every Grand Highlander, Land Cruiser, 4Runner, etc. they make and could probably sell even more.
Corolla is a volume seller, but has never really had the best-seller nameplate in the US (although arguably it didn’t have to as it had that worldwide best seller status). There are several years where the Civic has outsold it, and the Corolla is in a segment where most brands are still maintaining an entry.
Toyota also, as we know, rarely does anything quickly. The Corolla Cross was what, 6-7 years behind the Crosstrek, Encore, etc. in a legitimate AWD entry as that segment grew? (C-HR didn’t offer AWD and wasn’t even supposed to be branded a Toyota at first.) Compounded by the smaller truck segment moving at a slower pace than others.
Maybe Archie vs Predator, but there are a lot of great ones.
i just picked this up for $3 because it was too weird/cheap not to. Glad to hear it’s solid.
It’s such a gimmicky concept, but they really went for it. You found a good deal!
That book was such a good time. Thanks for reminding me it exists! I think it’s time to read it again.