I think a lot about fast followers, which are companies that aren’t necessarily first to a market, but come close enough and learn enough lessons to compete and/or sometimes dominate. (Apple wasn’t the first company to make a smartphone, nor was VHS the first tape-playing system). For a time, it seemed like Rivian could be that successful fast follower. Now it’s a lot less clear.
The fate of Rivian is important, if only because the company has one potentially good car coming soon and one possibly great car a little further down the track. Can the company overcome its loss of momentum to get there? That’s a big question in today’s Morning Dump.
It’s questions all around, today, actually. Can South Korea come to terms with a White House that wants a lot of cash now? Are Canada and the United States going to be able to make it work, or is the World Series suddenly something of more importance?
And, ending on a positive note, is Toyota’s SEMA concept the tamest SEMA concept ever?
Rivian Settles Lawsuit, Lays Off A Bunch Of People
There are so many advantages that Rivian had coming into the EV space. It had two attractive products that filled important niches in the market (large SUV and truck, plus a van). It was building those vehicles in America. The CEO comes off charming and not at all delusional. And, at the time, there was a huge amount of buzz around EVs, allowing the company to take in a lot of money in its IPO.
Now the company is hovering around 10% of its initial high share price, the buzz around EVs is dying, EV trucks are less popular, many incentives are going away at the federal level, and building cars in America now comes with a bunch of added materials costs thanks to tariffs.
Also, some of that IPO money is going back. Shareholders sued Rivian, claiming that the company knew it was going to raise the price of its R1 truck and SUV before it listed shares, which caused the value of those shares to drop once this was announced. While Rivian has not admitted any wrongdoing, Reuters reports that the company will pay $250 million to settle the case so it can focus on its big swing: Another two-row SUV called the Rivian R2.
People love their Rivians, generally, so perhaps a two-row SUV that costs about $45,000 and gets over 300 miles of range will appeal to a lot of people. It does feel like there are already a ton of those for sale now, although that price does make it cheaper than some potential gas-powered equivalents like the Audi Q5.
This launch is extremely important because, even with a cash injection from Volkswagen, the company continues to lose money on every vehicle it sells. Will its Q3 numbers show any improvement? Maybe.
In order to save money and “streamline,” the company announced it was laying off around 600 people, and forming “a single marketing organization” with CEO RJ Scaringe as the interim CMO, according to an email seen by Automotive News. Lowering costs is probably a good idea, though, until I drive it, I’m going to be a little skeptical that, in this market, a two-row SUV is going to move the needle enough to reverse the company’s fortunes.
You know what might? The dope as hell Rivian R3. This is a cool hatchback-type thing that’ll hopefully start in the upper-$30k range (though more for the hot version). Perhaps it’s overly optimistic to think a Hyundai Ioniq 5-sized vehicle will do any better than the Ioniq, but there is something indescribably alluring about it.
Does the R2 launch have to work for us to ever get an R3? Probably.
President Trump Demands Cash From South Korea, Which South Korea Is Not Wont To Do
One of these days, I’ll write my big piece on how the car market is way more influenced by the relative strength of different currencies than most normal people consider. A good example might be what’s happening with South Korea.
The country badly wants a deal with the United States so it can, among other things, sell cars with roughly the same tariffs as Japan. In order to get that, it pledged a lot of money in investment in the United States (a big chunk of which would be coming from Hyundai). The White House thanked Hyundai for its commitment by arresting a bunch of its citizens helping to build one of those investments.
Whereas Japan and the United States have a somewhat detailed outline of a trade deal, South Korea’s potential treaty depends on how much of that investment in America is in cash. And how fast that cash comes into the country.
This is tough for South Korea because, historically, the country’s exports helped make it money by building cars cheaply in the South Korean won and selling them in dollars, euros, and pounds. I won’t get into the complexity of the currency markets, but the won ain’t the dollar, and the country’s leaders fear that without having the ability to swap currencies freely with the United States, it’ll destabilize its own currency. Given that South Korea has faced currency issues before, this seems like a reasonable fear.
The South Korean plan has seemingly been to send over some cash, but mostly loans and guarantees. President Trump, though, seems to want that JG Wentworth speed.
Washington has pressured South Korea to accept conditions included in the agreement with Japan, such as the deadline for investments being Jan. 19, 2029, when Trump’s term ends, and allowing the U.S. government to select where the money goes. U.S. media also reported that Washington sought an increase in the investment amount.
“We are doing our utmost to persuade them that there are differences between Japan and South Korea, using various objective data and analyses,” Yeo told reporters last month.
South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves stood at about $422 billion as of the end of September, according to its central bank. The $350 billion that the U.S. is demanding is equivalent to 83% of that. Japan’s $550 billion investment promise is equivalent to approximately 40% of its foreign exchange reserves.
There are concerns that a short-term outflow of dollars could destabilize the country’s exchange rate.
The constant request for cash immediately on various fronts from the Trump Administration can be viewed in many ways. All presidents want stuff to happen in their own terms, which is why President Kennedy called for the United States to put a man on the moon before anyone knew how to do it. Perhaps it comes from a view that this long period of simmering inflation and cooling employment can’t last. Or maybe there’s some sort of massive remaking of the presidency that gives it unprecedented power to spend the money of private corporations.
Either way, destabilizing South Korea’s currency isn’t great if you want that country to also invest in the United States.
Trump V. Canada, Part Tres
President Trump was on Truth Social this morning and, in between ads for hearing aids and gold coins with the President’s face on them, was some angry messaging about the trade relationship between the United States and Canada.
What happened? The head of the Canadian Province of Ontario put out an ad campaign in the United States, just using a video of Ronald Reagan, pointing out that tariffs are bad.
If you want to read the full speech, btw, it’s here. I think this is the bit that’s upset the President:
You see, at first, when someone says, “Let’s impose tariffs on foreign imports,” it looks like they’re doing the patriotic thing by protecting American products and jobs. And sometimes for a short while it works — but only for a short time. What eventually occurs is: First, homegrown industries start relying on government protection in the form of high tariffs. They stop competing and stop making the innovative management and technological changes they need to succeed in world markets. And then, while all this is going on, something even worse occurs. High tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars. The result is more and more tariffs, higher and higher trade barriers, and less and less competition. So, soon, because of the prices made artificially high by tariffs that subsidize inefficiency and poor management, people stop buying. Then the worst happens: Markets shrink and collapse; businesses and industries shut down; and millions of people lose their jobs.
The memory of all this occurring back in the thirties made me determined when I came to Washington to spare the American people the protectionist legislation that destroys prosperity. Now, it hasn’t always been easy. There are those in this Congress, just as there were back in the thirties, who want to go for the quick political advantage, who will risk America’s prosperity for the sake of a short-term appeal to some special interest group, who forget that more than 5 million American jobs are directly tied to the foreign export business and additional millions are tied to imports.
If there’s one thing that the President pays attention to, it’s television, and this ad has made him real mad. So mad that he’s stopped talks with Canada. According to NBC, this has happened before:
Trump’s termination of talks Thursday is not the first time he has cut off trade negotiations with Canada. In June, he said he was “terminating ALL discussions on trade with Canada,” citing the treatment of American tech companies and dairy farmers.
Canada quickly retaliated, slapping a quota on steel products, over what Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne called “unjust U.S. tariffs.”
But days later, Canada announced it would rescind its digital services tax, which would have hit major U.S. companies, to appease Trump.
So, we’ll just have to wait and see what Canada can do to lower the temperature.
Toyota’s SEMA Camry GT-S Is Extremely Orange
Toyota is out with a SEMA Camry concept, and this version doesn’t come with a NASCAR-sourced V8 or wild powertrain. It doesn’t have 9,000 horsepower. It’s just a little lower, a little more agro, and a lot more orange.
As the company explains in a press release:
Unlike the over-the-top builds that often headline SEMA, the GT-S stays rooted in reality with its 232 horsepower, stock 2.5-liter four-cylinder hybrid system remaining unchanged. The interior, too, remains true to the production Camry, underscoring the build’s mission to highlight exterior design, stance, and chassis tuning as a natural extension of Camry’s existing capabilities.
[…]
“The Camry GT-S Concept is more than just a SEMA one-off—it’s a study in what a performance and style package could mean for Camry in the future,” said Adam Rabinowitz, chief designer, Toyota CALTY Design Research. “Our goal was to create something aspirational yet attainable, and to use this platform to gather valuable feedback from consumers.”
The team also focused on upgrades to complement the pronounced GT-S bodylines. At each corner, adjustable coilovers lower the chassis by 1.5 inches, yielding a more aggressive stance and improving handling. A high-performance brake upgrade includes massive 8-piston calipers squeezing 365mm front rotors with 6-piston calipers matched with 356mm rear rotors. To enhance mechanical grip, 20-inch performance wheels mounted with 245/35R20 tires fill the wheel wells.
You know what? I’m into it. This car could easily see the light of day, as Toyota hints approximately 400 times in its press release. I love a wild SEMA concept, too, don’t get me wrong, but production-intent stuff has its place.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Thanks to the reader who sent in this salsa tune, which, I think you’d agree, is the sonic version of the Toyota Camry above. It’s “Lección de Amor” by Adalberto Alvarez. Che romantica!
The Big Question
What’s your favorite SEMA concept?
Top photo: Rivian
I have to say I respectfully disagree with every economical assertion I this article. For example building here in the US with the cost of tariffs is still cheaper than the cost of tariffs of building a vehicle overseas and importing it. IMHO BVD is going to fail because you can’t sell an early model vehicle once you state you have a better one that will be cheaper coming in a few months. Who is going to buy it? Not to mention they lost all credibility and money and the people who believed in them. IMHO sell your BVDs short.
Except for it isn’t. The issue is you have to pay out the ass on tarrifs for the parts. Cars are made of thousands of parts that are not manufactured here.
Tarrifs are moronic in a global economy.
My girlfriend literally makes products for some of the biggest companies we have. Respectfully, you have no idea what you are talking about. Internet randoms need to keep quiet.
Best SEMA concept? The 2024 Jeep Willys Dispatcher and CJ66 shown a few years prior.
I think Canada should look back into it’s history and DO something about Trump, since we can’t seem to solve the problem ourselves. Remember kids “it’s not a war crime the FIRST time somebody does it to the other guys”.
You can’t burn down the White House if he knocks it down first. 4D chess motherfuckers.
No way a broke country that can’t provide what is needed and who most of the population wants their country to do what Trump is doing and the actual profitable area of the country wants to be part of the US is going to do Jack especially by running ads that are proven ads. For God’s sake people don’t take my word and certainly not a politicians word check out the facts. Every European country the liberals are saying hates the US is copying what Trump is doing and their citizens are all for it.
I am trying to wish the R3X into existence. I’d put down a deposit as soon as it looks likely. C’mon guys, you can do this.
The R2 will be splitting the market with the Scout, which will have the same UX, better initial quality, an available range extender, and a parent company with the resources to support them through several lean years. Rivian will not last long enough to see the R3 come to market.
Also, regarding the R1’s losing money; do they still have a negative contribution margin? If not, it’s misleading to write “the company continues to lose money on every vehicle it sells.” They may be losing money as an enterprise, but that doesn’t mean that producing and selling trucks doesn’t have a positive effect on the bottom line.
Never underestimate VWs ability to screw stuff up. Remember the recent stop sale and production (for 3 months!) of ID.4 due to door handle leaking issues? Door handles!
R2 will likely also undercut the Scout in price. There are plenty of current Tesla owners interested in their next car and the R2 could well be it, most of those people are not interested in either another Tesla OR a non-EV vehicle, and VW last week said the EV version Scout is no longer a priority, so the EREV will likely kick things off.
VW is currently experiencing severe money problems and cutting programs left and right. There is no certainty that they have the resources or desire to just keep piling money into Scout if there is no immediate success especially as it’s not at all certain that it could be anything beyond a North American brand, especially given the EV back burner status.
Those are good points, but with how Germany is in free fall, VW probably wants to focus on their US operations. The Scout brand is the perfect business to diversify out of the EU’s death spiral.
To me it would make more sense to release the R3 first – then the R2.
But what do I know?
this all day
They’re following Tesla’s model of sell the lower production higher price cars first, and follow with the higher volume cheaper models as the production capabilities increase. It’s probably smarter, considering they can’t make a car cheap enough to make money on them yet
Tesla’s model worked for them a decade ago.
But right now as we’re well into a government-caused recession – lower-priced vehicles should be the priority.
Not Explorer-sized/Expedition-priced Soccer-Mom shopping carts.
I consistently see very negative anti-EV writing like this, taken from this very article, on the Autopian:
Now the company is hovering around 10% of its initial high share price, the buzz around EVs is dying, EV trucks are less popular, many incentives are going away at the federal level, and building cars in America now comes with a bunch of added materials costs thanks to tariffs.
It could be rewritten to espouse other facts:
EV sales have exploded globally in Asia, the EU and the US, even with the threat of price-increasing tariffs. Additionally, even with the direct meddling and attempts by the Trump administration to handicap the EV industry, including battery manufacturing and infrastructure grants and remove incentives, Americans purchased a record amount recently. Constant changes and attacks from this administration have created an atmosphere of uncertainty among US manufacturers, as have economic warning signs currently flashing red. A general pause in innovating and moving forward is expected by nervous US CEOs.
The “exploding” has largely stopped in the US and Europe. The Chinese do what the Chinese government tells them to do.
It doesn’t take away from the fact that the Autopian can get strangely doom-scrolly
Both Europe and the US had recent record sales just last month. But I agree, global CEOs are nervous with all of the flip-flopping and uncertainty. And yes, economic indicators are indeed flashing red.
It’s easy to set sales records when starting from nothing.
The true sign will be what happens after the incentives are gone. i wouldn’t say that anything they said isn’t true for the US at least.
Watkins Glen is going to be all over that Camry. Their fleet of (slightly modified with handling stuff) Toyota pace vehicles regularly embarrass much pricier metal. Shows it’s the driver more than the car, up to a point.
“gold coins with the President’s face on them”
The brass covered iron token?:
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/y15ZCapaPO8
I must say that Camry indeed looks pretty Salsa. SEMA Camry GT-Salsa? However I doubt they sell that many in Cuba, so maybe not.
I would be way more excited for Slate than a Rivian. Rivian is doing something that other companies already do. No other company makes a barebones vehicle in the year of our Ford 2025.
This is of course assuming the retail Slate stays the same as the pre-production vehicles we have seen.
<Ron Howard voiceover> It will not.
What’s really stopping Rivian from creating their own Slate?
Money
I tend to agree with this even though the shortcuts needed (range and amenities) to hit that low price point will probably get more people to look elsewhere. But it is a seemingly FUN product. All other car companies are sucking the FUN out of the car industry, but Slate bring it back.
I feel that the Slate will be the next Cyber Truck…the few people excited by it buy it, and then it tanks.
You might be right. The Slate does have two major advantages over the Cybertruk though.
1) it should be way cheaper.
2) Bezos is less hated than Melon Husk.
re #2: Not by much though. Now imagine if Rivian made their own Slate. Does anyone dislike Rivian currently? While their vehicles have had some issues those seem mostly resolved, or certainly haven’t induced a major backlash. There isn’t much negativity towards the brand. Their tech is considered pretty good. If they wanted to it seems they could create a Slate pretty easily, as long as they have production space for it.
I’d probably buy a Slate by Rivian over a Slate by Slate if they were similarly priced.
Bezos is a far quieter destroyer of mankind, and more dangerous IMO.
Hopefully Rivian can stick around long enough to produce the R3 and maybe an R3T. I agree, I’m far more likely to buy something from them.
I saw a Slate testing on the road yesterday. It’s a nice size and looks simple…problem is all the creature comforts it lacks, are not actually the things that will make cars expensive. I have yet to see how they will actually make it cheap. Don’t get me wrong, would love to see someone pull that off, I just think it will be the Chinese somehow in partnership with Foxconn and Walmart.
With the end of the EV rebate, Slate is fucked. No way they are going to meet their low price.
Reagan delivered that speech when American sentiment for the Japan was eroding because its companies had flooded America’s market with inexpensive cars and electronics.
Reagan had just placed higher tariffs on various Japanese products to try to stem the damage the imports of cheap Japanese semiconductors had done to US manufacturers. He didn’t like tariffs, but felt that they were the best way to deal with the problem initially, until better solutions could be negotiated.
The White House thanked Hyundai for its commitment by arresting a bunch of its citizens
So you’re saying that we should endorse the Mafia because the number of products they sell out of the back of trucks is good for the economy? Fentynyl distribution provides work for Americans too, are we supporting them? The President does a lot of stupid things but I don’t count stopping illegal activities as one of them.
Thanks for the info, I never knew about Regan’s trade policies before.
Most of the people arrested were here on work visas to train at the newly built facilities and the Trump administration even went back to apologize for it happening. They also worked with S Korea and Hyundai to bring those people back into the country.
Not every “illegal” is some drug mule as your analogy suggests. Most are only illegal due to an immigration system that’s set up to fail and a government run so lean that paperwork can’t be processed in a timely manner. Perhaps if the ICE agents don’t get a bounty for every person they bring in and due process was followed incidents like this wouldn’t happen.
Re: Orange guy vs Canada.
Terrence and Phillip win again.
I like the R3’s hatchback rally car looks, but if I squint my ID.4 has those same looks and was $25,000 a year old with minimal miles and plenty of warranty. Sure, the R3 will (if it makes it) have the software VW wishes my ID.4 had. But that’s not worth that much and my ID.4 works fine.
All of these EVs will be screwed until they are cheaper than ICE, which is quite possible in the next few years, with other countries still moving the technology forward.
R3 is really the only new car on the horizon that has me excited…I hope Rivian makes it!
Is Rivian a follower though? Weren’t they the first EV truck? I could easily see them being Blackberry and Ford and GM being Apple and Google in this analogy. Except it’s still not clear to me there’s a large enough market for full EV trucks for any of them to be all that successful.
JFC. This sounds like a comedy bit, but it’s real life.
Elbows Up!
I just wish Rivian would get rid of their silly headlight treatment. Not that would convince me to buy an expensive car that I would have to recharge on a 700-mile drive. But I just think they are ugly.
This.
As if all other trucks aren’t significantly uglier. Ram is the only one of Big 3 trucks whose front end doesn’t look like an eldritch horror mixed with a predator, but I’d prefer not to look like a date rapist with a few DUIs.
And that’s funny, because Dodge (now RAM) started that race to ugliness and they have now toned it down. Some of the current GMC trucks are incredibly ugly. Chevy is doing okay. And well, I haven’t looked at a Ford lately.
Growing up, my family always had a pickup. They used to be cheaper than cars. Back then. But I have no use case for one now. I lived in Texas for six years and a big pickup was the most common vehicle around there. I have zero interest in owning one. I can rent one from U-Haul or Home Depot for $20 if I ever need one.
Sitting out on the porch while moving my mom off the farm to assisted living in somewhat rural California, I was weirdly happy to see at least half of the HD pickups going down the road out front hauling trailers or big loads in the bed. I rarely saw that when I lived in SE Texas.
“All hat and no cattle” as they used to say.
I was just at my Sister’s and they have a Tesla model Y and a Rivian R1T, both of which we rode around in for the weekend and I have to say that the R1T was superior in every way possible. I hope they make it.
I can’t see anything other than a Hyundai in that orange and black front end.
10-15 years ago that would have been a cruel insult, now I think it’s a high compliment. Amazing how far they’ve come.
Pretty Sure there is not a one car savior for any brand, much less Rivian. Especially in the EV segment. Even if they somehow started selling 35K 300Mile EV SUV’s there would still be someone who is not ok with Electrification only. I don’t know if an E-Rev versions stolen form VW’s Scout could bring adequate volume. the styling up front is getting a little long int he tooth and adding a slope back roof does not make them much more attractive, unless maybe you are a Rabbit or Golf fan I suppose.
The Rivian saga hits me close. I love the brand and the product and I do think R2 won’t cut it, and the R3 is what should be next instead. Rooting for them all the way to R15.
I think most of the big trade shows have gotten a bit to crazy for anything most people would want. I’m sure there is some random company bringing something I would actually buy but it’s lost in the madness of the show.
Rivian following the Tesla expensive to cheaper approach was probably right when they started and the r1t / r1s were probably the right call for the time. I question if r2 is the right call for now. R3 / r3x have such a following and so many people want to be under $30k for a vehicle. There also isn’t a ton in that space right now where the r2 is entering a cramped market with better values. When / if the r3 does make it to market it will probably have some competition.
The R2 is the Ioniq 5 (and Honda Prologue, Model Y, Blazer, EV6, etc.) competitor size wise. Having spent some time up close with all three (R1S, R2, R3) the R3 is really much more like a Honda Fit/VW Golf/Chevy Bolt. It is a pretty small car. Hope they make it through R2 and into R3, they are really cool!!
He has a remarkable knack for sounding both like the boomer aunt people only talk to on holidays out of a sense of obligation ranting on FB and a petulant tween who’s mad at their parents for taking away their phone. A frog could withstand a cheesegrater better than he can take anything but blind obsequious praise. I can’t imagine how weak someone must be to see strength in him.
SEMA doesn’t do anything for me, but as for that Camry concept, I wouldn’t mind seeing some more cars with color.
I enjoy my bright orange “Hot Pepper Metallic” Maverick. It’s easier to find in the sea of grayscale that is a typical parking lot these days.
And I enjoy my “Hot Pepper Metallic” Bronco! Get lots of compliments on the color
Not only that. He also tore down “the people’s house” this week for his idiot ballroom.
Canada & South Korea should go together to induct DT into “The Order of Very Special Boys who Totally Deserve Their Father’s Love”. Once they pin the medal on him, all will be forgotten.