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Electric Car Sales Are Absolutely Exploding Right Now

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Humans are strange, sometimes unpredictable beings. Other times, they are extremely easy to figure out. There’s been a sense that a lot of potential electric car buyers have been sitting on the sidelines, either holding onto a current electric car or waiting to try one out for the first time. Now, it’s like Cortland Finnegan is in the game, because the sidelines are emptying.

Obviously, this has to do with the expiration of the tax credit. Looking at those who have released numbers, it seems like buyers are getting into the market while there’s still inventory to buy. We’ll look at Hyundai and Kia first, as they both had record months. Ford and GM, as well, are doing super well.

Vidframe Min Top
Vidframe Min Bottom

Volkswagen? We won’t know for a while, but the company doesn’t expect this sugar high to last, as VW is slowing ID.4 production. What happens to dealers who are suddenly getting overwhelmed with EV purchases? The IRS is letting people file after September 30th, so long as a contract is signed.

Hyundai And Kia Both Have Record Months

Hyundai Ev9 Ts
Photo: Hyundai

It’s going to take a few days, or maybe a couple of weeks, to know for sure if American buyers hit a record for EV purchases (by share) in August, but my guess is seeming to hold true. The overall market is expected to increase by somewhere between 1-4% according to analysts, but EV sales are way up at Hyundai and Kia.

Hyundai saw total sales increase by 12%, and retail sales improved by 8% over last year, making the 88,532 units sold an all-time record for the brand. Electric cars? Up 72% year-over-year! On a monthly basis, the Ioniq 5 (+61%), Ioniq 6 (+30%), and new Ioniq 9 all crushed.

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Kia also saw a big increase, with sales up 10.4% year-over-year for a record month. The EV9 was up 39% and the Niro EV improved by 57%. Curiously, the EV6 was down a little year-over-year. I can’t break out Niro sales, but my guess is that EV sales were up. (The company also sold a bunch of K5s, Carnivals, and even Souls).

GM And Ford Also Moved A Bunch Of Electric Cars

Chevy Equinox Ev 1lt 6
Photo: Matt Hardigree

Ford’s sales numbers are hot off the presses, and the company did what I’m going to assume is about average for the market in August, seeing sales up by about 3.9% year-over-year. Not bad.

For the first time in a long time, though, electric car sales (+19.3%) outpaced hybrid car sales (+14.5%). That’s a reversal of the YTD trend. IRA Fever has hit Ford, and the company is now moving the Mach-Es it built (+35.3%), Lightnings (+21.2%), and… ok, the E-Transit sales aren’t great (down 76%). Ford doesn’t sell a ton of E-Transits, so the downturn there doesn’t sink the whole thing.

General Motors doesn’t break down monthly sales… unless it decides it wants to. It decided it wanted to this month, because GM was likely the 2nd biggest electric automaker in the United States again, thanks to being able to spread those cars around a bunch of brands. What the company said is that it sold more than 21,000 electric cars.

Obviously, this is because of the IRA tax credit expiring on September 30th. But what happens after that?

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From GM’s release:

August was our best month ever for EV sales – and we expect that buying surge to pay long-term dividends, given our industry-leading manufacturer loyalty, and EV customers’ overwhelming commitment to the technology. I’m grateful to our team and our dealers for helping us outperform nearly every EV competitor.

We’re expecting strong demand once again in September. The question, of course, is what’s next? There’s no doubt we’ll see lower EV sales next quarter after tax credits end September 30, and it may take several months for the market to normalize. We will almost certainly see a smaller EV market for a while, and we won’t overproduce. Still, we believe GM can continue to grow EV market share.

Our confidence in the future of our EV business starts with our portfolio. Before there was an IRA, the strongest segments were affordable EVs and luxury, and we have those bases covered with our stunning Cadillacs, the Chevrolet Equinox EV, and soon, the new Chevrolet Bolt. And the style, performance, and industry-leading range of our Chevrolet, GMC and GMC HUMMER pickups and SUVs is unmatched.

Meanwhile, we are seeing marginal competitors dramatically scale back their products and plans, which should end much of the overproduction and irrational discounts we’ve seen in the marketplace.

I think that last sentence is an apt, if not a little pointed, view of the current environment. There are too many expensive, mediocre electric cars, and clearing them out of dealerships should help more established players.

VW Is Scaling Back ID.4 Production

2023 Volkswagen ID.4
Photo credit: Volkswagen

Oh, yeah, speaking of: Volkswagen is going to slow its ID.4 EV crossover production as, frankly, people don’t see it as a competitive or compelling car.

From Automotive News:

As a result of the slowdown, 160 employees will be furloughed starting in late October. VW said it will supplement unemployment from the state of Tennessee, meaning affected workers will receive 80 percent of base compensation and continue to receive full benefits.

The slowdown began Sept. 2.

“This adjustment in no way changes our commitment to the ID4, our growing EV portfolio or our commitment to our Chattanooga team,” a VW spokesperson said in a statement. ”This is a market-driven decision, based on aligning our production volume to market demand.”

I’m guessing the VW got a little boost this quarter, but that’ll certainly fade once the tax credit fades.

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Buyers Get A Paperwork Extension From The IRS

Mustang Mach E Rally
Mustang Mach-E Rally

I think the increase in sales goes to show that there’s more pent-up demand for EVs than initially thought (We don’t know how many first-time EV buyers, but I bet plenty are. I think “everyone who wants an EV has already bought one” is far from true), and that maybe the issue with EV adoption is more rooted in the fact that most companies targeted the high-end of the Model Y pricing instead of something more affordable.

It also makes the cancellation of the tax credit a bit of a bummer. Is this the most efficient way to create a greener, healthier environment with government money? Probably not, but it’s better than nothing.

If you were planning to buy an electric car but are worried about getting your paperwork in before the September 30th deadline, the good news is that you’ll have a little more time, according to the IRS, in this Automotive News article:

The information from the IRS clarifies a point of confusion for the auto industry, since the credit originally applied to vehicles “placed in service.” That implied delivery of the vehicle was required before Sept. 30 for buyers to claim the $7,500 credit for new vehicles and $4,000 credit for used vehicles.

Now, delivery can take place after Sept. 30 and the buyer can still claim the credit.

“If a taxpayer acquires a vehicle by having a written binding contract in place and a payment made on or before September 30, 2025, then the taxpayer will be entitled to claim the credit when they place the vehicle in service (namely, when they take possession of the vehicle), even if the vehicle is placed in service after September 30, 2025,” the IRS said in its Aug. 21. guidance.

That’s something.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

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There’s a new Sabrina Carpenter album out, and I’m enjoying it. Specifically, I appreciate that her reference set is a lot more Dolly Parton than, say, Britney Spears or Whitney Houston. It’s a fun place for a pop star to be, and it suits her voice and personality quite well. The video for “Tears” is a deep homage to  The Rocky Horror Picture Show, with the great Colman Domingo doing the Tim Curry role and Sabrina picking up the Susan Sarandon part. It’s fun!

The Big Question

Who is GM talking about here? Who are the marginal competitors in the EV space? Name names!

Top photo: Kia

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Myk El
Member
Myk El
2 minutes ago

There’s a new Sabrina Carpenter album out, and I’m enjoying it.

I guess I need to go view it. I shiver in antici…

JDE
JDE
1 hour ago

I would question how many of the “new” sales are due to dealership incentives in August. Not for nothing, but it sure seemed like a good number of advertisements for last of the 2024 stock as well as 2025 stock was being advertised for far less than prices have been for at least a few years. Maybe I am wrong, but I think that could have helped moved the ev’s languishing along with the threat of the tax benefit going away.

Lotsofchops
Member
Lotsofchops
2 hours ago

Sabrina Carpenter’s music isn’t quite my scene but her music video game is on point. Kudos to the team around her, they’ve been making fun stuff.

Ben
Member
Ben
3 hours ago

I think the increase in sales goes to show that there’s more pent-up demand for EVs than initially thought

How so? The end of the tax credits has essentially caused all of the EV sales for the rest of the year to be pulled forward into September. If EV sales are still strong after the credit goes away then I’ll buy that demand is higher than everyone thought, but under the circumstances the sales bump is pretty obviously a function of external factors besides pure supply and demand.

My 0.02 Cents
My 0.02 Cents
1 hour ago
Reply to  Ben

SO MUCH THIS!

I turned my EV6 lease in four months early at a cost of $2,700 to not drive a car.
However, I still got the $7500 off my Audi A6 E-tron (plus a load more manufacturer incentives), oh and my payment dropped $120 a month, so there’s that…
My wife did the same with her RZ EV except she only had a couple of months left to pay, so not so painful.

Scott
Member
Scott
4 hours ago

Ah, a young Susan Sarandon! 🙂

This particular track isn’t to my taste, but Ms. Carpenter looks very nice in that powder blue suit and hat.

Wish I had an Ionic 5 to drive around LA.

OK: meaningless musings complete.

Manwich Sandwich
Manwich Sandwich
5 hours ago

“Who is GM talking about here? Who are the marginal competitors in the EV space? Name names!”

I think that put-down is directed at VW… but possibly also Mercedes and/or BMW.

But in my view, the truly marginal EV competitors in North America are Mazda, Toyota, Subaru, Stellantis and even Honda… since Honda is merely selling a re-badged GM product.

And if they are directing it at Tesla, then they are wrong. The problem with Tesla isn’t their product. The issue is mainly political. By aligning himself with Crooked Trump, Musk went from hero to less-than-zero and alienated much of his customer base and potential customer base… myself being one of them.

Last edited 5 hours ago by Manwich Sandwich
Crank Shaft
Member
Crank Shaft
4 hours ago

Yeah, the product ain’t so great either.

Manwich Sandwich
Manwich Sandwich
1 hour ago
Reply to  Crank Shaft

That’s a good writeup… but the ‘problems’ the reviewer had were not real problems in my book.

Nothing they wrote would stop me from buying a Tesla. It’s Musk, his recent political idiocy and him idiotically helping Trump get back into office that stops me from wanting to give Tesla any money directly or indirectly as long as he’s involved with the company.

But I agree on the dislike for the glass roof. I wouldn’t get any glass roof vehicle without a sunshade for it.

My Ford C-max has one of those stupid glass roofs and I keep the shade covering it most of the time.

I’d rather have a regular metal roof.

Oh and my C-max also has the same issues with the erratic behaviour of the automatic windshield wipers. Would rather have regular wipers with fixed settings.

But these are not a Tesla-specific problems. They are ‘industry trend’ problems.

JDE
JDE
1 hour ago

maybe I got lucky? I had rain sensing wipers 2 decades ago on lowly 300C. they never failed or were erratic. sold it with 160k miles and they still seem to be working for the new owner.

Manwich Sandwich
Manwich Sandwich
45 minutes ago
Reply to  JDE

Can’t say. With my C-Max, sometimes it will wipe for seemingly no reason. Other times, it will start to rain and it won’t start to wipe until I can barely see at all (but typically I’ll override it before that happens).

StillPlaysWithCars
StillPlaysWithCars
4 hours ago

Their product was fine. It’s now pretty aged and shows it.

SNL-LOL Jr
Member
SNL-LOL Jr
4 hours ago

As much as I prefer not to use them, the Tesla Supercharger network is heads and shoulders above everyone else’s.

StillPlaysWithCars
StillPlaysWithCars
3 hours ago
Reply to  SNL-LOL Jr

I’m not sure why you’re referencing the their super charger network. My comment is purely in respect to Teslas cars which is certainly not heads and shoulders above the rest. They’re equal at best and lagging in other areas.

3laine
3laine
3 hours ago

Teslas cars which is certainly not heads and shoulders above the rest. They’re equal at best and lagging in other areas.

Nah. The Model 3 is still very easy to argue it’s the best in class. In independent, simultaneous testing, it has more range than the Ioniq6, better efficiency, better infrastructure compatibility, all of which add up to faster overall travel time negating Ioniq6’s optimal charging speed advantage. It also has world class software ecosystem, and excellent trip routing, etc., making converting to an EV easier. The quality/fit/finish/materials are notably better and the Ioniq6 is nothing to write home about, either.

It’s not “equal at best” with Ioniq6 or Polestar 2 or whatever else you want to compare it to. Someone might choose another option based on personal preference, but it’s objectively a very strong option based on the things that EV buyers cite as the major reasons to switch or not switch to an EV.

Joregon
Member
Joregon
2 hours ago
Reply to  3laine

There is a lot more to a car than it’s range.

Teslas were the only game in town for “long enough” range and charging infrastructure. The charging infrastructure is opening up to other car makers, and there are now plenty of nicer/newer cars. Politics aside, Tesla Y/3 are as sexy and desirable as a gen3 Prius with 200k on it compared to the competition. Not saying they are bad, just that they need to try harder.

3laine
3laine
1 hour ago
Reply to  Joregon

There is a lot more to a car than it’s range.

Agreed. That’s why I mentioned way more characteristics than that in the post you’re replying to:

it has more range than the Ioniq6, better efficiency, better infrastructure compatibility, all of which add up to faster overall travel time negating Ioniq6’s optimal charging speed advantage. It also has world class software ecosystem, and excellent trip routing, etc., making converting to an EV easier. The quality/fit/finish/materials are notably better and the Ioniq6 is nothing to write home about, either.

________

The charging infrastructure is opening up to other car makers

I’m well aware. I’ve had Supercharger access in my Ford EV since basically the beginning of non-Tesla Supercharger access (Ford got it first), and have done several ~1,000+ mile trips since then using primarily or exclusively Superchargers.

It’s a HUGE improvement over not having Superchargers (which is why I now use them almost exclusively), but it’s not the *same* as having a Tesla, especially for 800V cars. Most non-Teslas have to block two chargers to charge at a Supercharger, for one. And two, 800V cars charge at a far lower rate than they are capable of on Tesla chargers. This is part of the reason that the Model 3 still has a better travel time on long-distance trips than the “faster charging” Ioniq6, in independent testing.

Plus the other notes I made originally: That Tesla’s software ecosystem is world class, and that their roadtrip routing embarrasses their competition (Ford, Kia, etc.) which is important for new EV owners, especially.

Lots of reasons other than purely range to choose a Tesla. There are certainly reasons to choose something else, too, but it’s FAR from just range where Tesla is very competitive or leading.

JDE
JDE
1 hour ago

In my mind, the supercharging network is the same. It is pretty unregulated as far as pricing and still fills Elon’s pockets. though I am probably unique, I was not a fan of him even when he was considered cool and Hollywood centriq

Rick C
Rick C
5 hours ago

Of course they are. So we can throw out any accusations of ‘no one wants them’. If the deal is good, Americans will accept them. The proof is right here before your eyes.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Member
Nsane In The MembraNe
5 hours ago

IMHO the marginal competitors is almost certainly a shot at Tesla. Their lineup is ancient at this point and their lead on the technology has nearly evaporated. I know some Tesla stan is going to respond with “muh range and charging, bro” or “it has nothing to do with the Nazi at the helm and you should grow up and separate the art from the artist”, but the competition is going to be fully caught up within the next year or two and rather than making meaningful updates Tesla is of course shitposting and talking about how much they don’t want to sell cars anymore.

Anyway the ID.4 makes me irrationally angry. It’s just such an unapologetically mediocre product. You’re treated to VAG’s trademark anti-styling, the range is mediocre, the power is mediocre, it’s expensive, and it has what’s possibly the most infuriating interfaces on the market. It was damn close to being ground 0 for a lot of the most infuriating features in cars these days. RIP bozo.

Anyway if you had to buy an EV today for some reason what are you taking? I’d probably go with the Cadillac Optiq. I think it’s neat looking, the range and power are competitive, the interior is quite nice, and GM had the stroke of genius that is putting buttons in the damn thing. AC? Buttons! Steering wheel? Buttons, no haptic shit! Window switches? Why…those are buttons!!!!

If you would’ve told me 5 years ago that that would be a selling point I would’ve laughed but here we are. The end of interior Teslafication can’t come soon enough.

Younork
Younork
3 hours ago

“You’re treated to VAG’s trademark anti-styling”

While I agree with everything else you said, especially those last two paragraphs, to me bland styling is a feature not a bug. I’d like my vehicles to make me as anonymous as possible.

Vetatur Fumare
Member
Vetatur Fumare
52 minutes ago
Reply to  Younork

I mean this in the nicest way (as in I am genuinely curious and want to hear your thinking, honest-to-god no snark intended whatsoever): What are you doing here at the Autopian???

Church
Member
Church
5 hours ago

Honestly, every track on the new Sabrina album is a banger. It’s just track after track of heterofatalism and I’m here for it. I hadn’t seen the video for Tears (I don’t do much video, really) but I can totally see the Rocky homage, so good call.

Alexk98
Member
Alexk98
5 hours ago

Who is GM talking about here? Who are the marginal competitors in the EV space? Name names!

Cybertruck certainly seems to be one compared to GM EV trucks, ID.4 is similarly marginal at best.

Fuzzyweis
Member
Fuzzyweis
5 hours ago

Maybe GM throwing some shade at Ford and its 3 whole EVs. The Silverado beats the Lightning in just about every measure, the Mach-e is a fairly old platform as evs go, and the Transit.

Ford just announced a mid sized truck but it’s years away, meanwhile GM will have the Bolt back which will be a true under 30K ev.

Meanwhile Ford is taking pot shots at Slate, talk about punching down.

Bags
Bags
5 hours ago
Reply to  Fuzzyweis

Beating the Lighting at power and range but at a higher price.
Not saying the price isn’t worth what you get – but there was a lot of shit-talking from the Chevy boys when Ford was raising prices on the Lightning about the Silverado wiping the floor with it. As it turns out, most people just don’t want an EV pickup, or at least not for $60k, $70k, $80k, whatever.

The Mach-e is supposed to be pretty good, but they weren’t even close on the incentives that GM was using to push the EVqinox, BlazEV, and Caddys. Between incentives, and (as you said) a much more complete lineup, GM is certainly reaping the benefits on sales numbers.

Rick C
Rick C
5 hours ago
Reply to  Fuzzyweis

GM having more than three models is why GM’s EV division made money last year. Having more products to offer to consumers means more potential sales.

3laine
3laine
2 hours ago
Reply to  Rick C

GM having more than three models is why GM’s EV division made money last year.

I don’t think GM’s EV division actually made money in 2024. I think they got to the point where the materials+labor was less than the sales price (but not including R&D, factory building/retooling, etc.), so they got *closer* to profitability for each EV sold, but are not actually profitable as a division.

3laine
3laine
2 hours ago
Reply to  Fuzzyweis

The Silverado beats the Lightning in just about every measure

Lightning wins on price, payload, efficiency, acceleration, frunk size, etc.

Silverado wins on some major points like range and charge rate, but Lightning wins in a lot of other ways. It’s not nearly as lopsided as claimed.

 the Mach-e is a fairly old platform as evs go

Didn’t effect that Motor Trend picked the Mach E as the winner in it’s recent comparo and the Equinox as 5th place (out of 7). I’m not saying that’s the gold standard of comparison tests, but the Mach E had some notable improvements during it’s lifespan, and it’s still a good option.

Anoos
Member
Anoos
6 hours ago

Marginal players could be Vinfast or even Tesla.

Tesla has no dealers and can drastically swing their pricing during the model year. I wouldn’t consider them to be playing by the same rules as legacy auto makers.

Dead mall parking lots across the US are full of evidence of Tesla’s overproduction.

Last edited 6 hours ago by Anoos
3laine
3laine
2 hours ago
Reply to  Anoos

“Marginal players” where a single Tesla model outsells ALL of GM’s EVs, combined, by approximately double in Q2 2025.

Last edited 2 hours ago by 3laine
Anoos
Member
Anoos
1 hour ago
Reply to  3laine

I know. I’m not saying it wasn’t a dig at Tesla.

But what other non-legacy OEMs are there that could make a bit of difference in the market as a whole? It’s not like Lucid overproduction could cause any disruption to GM.

All the non-legacy EV makers other than Tesla don’t even have enough money to build enough cars to annoy GM if they wanted to.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Anoos
3laine
3laine
25 minutes ago
Reply to  Anoos

Yeah, I’m not agreeing or disagreeing with whether that’s what GM meant. Companies make silly claims and digs at their competitors all the time.

It would just be funny to call Tesla “marginal” when a single one of their EV models has double the sales of GM’s entire EV lineup in Q2.

Mrbrown89
Member
Mrbrown89
6 hours ago

I think GM is talking about the Japanese OEMs and everyone not commited or interested in full electrification like Stellantis putting V8s back.

The V8 HEMI is the equivalent of the flex tape meme, it works until it doesnt.

Kudos to GM for being one of the few with a diversified portafolio of products, they need to start converting their regular ICE to Hybrids options too. Hyundai/Kia followed the same formula but since they are more global, they have Hybrids too.

Rick C
Rick C
5 hours ago
Reply to  Mrbrown89

Stellantis US is lost. They’ve taken the wrong fork in the road. Luckily, Stellantis EU has what, a couple dozen EV products for sale? When their domestic market collapses, they have a way out.

3laine
3laine
21 minutes ago
Reply to  Mrbrown89

Stellantis would make a lot of sense.

marginal competitors dramatically scale back their products and plans, which should end much of the overproduction and irrational discounts”

They’re scaling back products and plans and they’ve had bonkers discounts on Charger EVs because they don’t really appeal to almost any demographic (and they’re uncompetitive).

V10omous
Member
V10omous
6 hours ago

Who is GM talking about here? Who are the marginal competitors in the EV space? Name names!

Everyone except Ford, Hyundai/Kia, Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid.

Scoutdude
Scoutdude
6 hours ago
Reply to  V10omous

Lucid is definitely in the marginal group. At least for now Rivian is right there at the edge and really need the new vehicles to be a hit.

Harvey Firebirdman
Member
Harvey Firebirdman
6 hours ago
Reply to  Scoutdude

Yeah I was about to say is Lucid even a competitor to any brand? Seems like the only reason they are still around is because of Saudi money backing them.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
5 hours ago
Reply to  Scoutdude

Sales alone aren’t what defines my response.

Nissan (among others) sells a lot of EVs but I consider them marginal.

Lucid and Rivian make high quality vehicles and are backed by big money, I believe they are here for the long haul.

Alexk98
Member
Alexk98
5 hours ago
Reply to  Scoutdude

The only thing marginal about Lucid is their sales and lack of product breadth, their tech is truly top of the market, the Air is leaps and bounds ahead of every single EV sedan on the market. The Gravity stands to do the same, but the pseudo minivan styling may not do it too many favors. It’s a shame since their tech is so good, but they certainly only have a marginal market share.

Anoos
Member
Anoos
42 minutes ago
Reply to  Alexk98

Their sales / market share makes them pretty much irrelevant to GM. There are GM dealerships selling more cars than Lucid does.

D0nut
Member
D0nut
6 hours ago

I don’t see how GM themselves aren’t considered marginal players here. As far as I’m concerned they only have one viable car/platform in the EV Blazer/Honda Prologue/etc. The Hummers and Trucks just don’t make sense and therefore will never sell a lot.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
6 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

The Cadillac SUVs are pretty good for what they are, and the trucks/Hummers at least have reasonable range, which is more than can be said for any competitors.

D0nut
Member
D0nut
6 hours ago
Reply to  V10omous

Reasonable range due to an absurdly large and expensive battery. That’s just not a sustainable product. It will never be competitive IMO. And yeah the Lyric is part of the “etc” regarding the EV Blazer.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
6 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

Unless and until better chemistry is invented and put on sale, large batteries are the only way to decent range if regulators and laws demand electric trucks.

So whether you like it or not, the GM approach is probably going to be the future, barring a paradigm shift that there’s no evidence for.

Rick C
Rick C
5 hours ago
Reply to  V10omous

This is a given. Battery design and chemistry has certainly improved over the short 12 years or so since the Modern EV Age came about.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
4 hours ago
Reply to  Rick C

Has it?

EVs are using the same Li-ion batteries they were when the Model S first came out, or else even cheaper and less dense LFP batteries.

There has been no breakthrough in range or efficiency; most EVs apart from halo models or vehicles with massive packs (like the GM trucks) are stuck around 300 miles of range.

There’s certainly nothing on the horizon that would allow for true EV towing and/or smaller packs in trucks, which is the point I was responding to.

Last edited 4 hours ago by V10omous
86-GL
86-GL
4 hours ago
Reply to  V10omous

You’re right, the last 10 years have been a bit of a plateau for Lithium tech, aside from cost. But if you’ve been paying attention to BYD and CATL, we are likely only a few years away from the next big jumps. It still feels like vapourware, but the cells and test vehicles exist. It’s going to happen.

Solid-state cells are expected to double storage density, with benefits to stability. That’s a huge win for range, power and fast charging at the pointy end of the market.

Sodium tech is expected to slash battery prices dramatically, pushing entry-level EVs to legitimate price parity with their ICE competitors. This also comes with increased stability and a wider range of temperature tolerance, opening up new markets in northern Eurasia, Africa, etc.

I’m a cynic when it comes to most automotive tech enhancements, but battery tech WILL continue to progress.

In the short time I’ve been a contractor, I’ve seen battery circular saws go from struggling to make crosscuts in 2x4s and pine trim, to making 20ft rip cuts in laminated LVL beams, while being lighter AND more powerful their their 120v corded brethren. It’s coming.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
4 hours ago
Reply to  86-GL

I hope you’re right, but I’ve been hearing about solid state and sodium being “a couple years away” for a good decade now.

I’ll believe it when they are actually on sale.

Needles Balloon
Needles Balloon
3 hours ago
Reply to  86-GL

The benefits of solid-state batteries are probably quite overhyped for the first 5-10 years that they’re in production. It looks like weight will significantly decrease by 1.3-1.5x which will reduce the weight-cost doomspiral, but volumetric density seems to be fairly similar. Battery safety will probably be improved somewhat. The charge rate ceiling might be higher, but it will take significant engineering work to get charge rates to match current liquid electrolyte batteries’ 5C charge rates (in China).

Sodium-ion likely won’t be revolutionary in China, as it has roughly similar specs & cost (with equal scale) to LFP which is currently dominant in that market. It has one key benefit though: LFP has terrible subzero weather performance, while Sodium-ion performs excellently even at extremely cold temperatures. This means the sodium revolution will need to come from cold weather climate countries, not China which has relatively low populations in cold regions and predominantly exports to warm countries. It will be embarrassing when CATL gets sodium-ion to market before actually cold countries do.

Rick C
Rick C
4 hours ago
Reply to  V10omous

They absolutely have. Randomly doing an internet search for lithium batteries manufacturers. The first one I find is Samsung prismatic battery information. The first generation in 2013 was rated at 78 amp-hours. The second generation showed up about two years later. Now rated at 94 amp-hours. The third generation a few years after that at 111 amp-hours. That product line is now discontinued, with attention directed at something entirely new apparently. Innovation and progress doesn’t sleep. It moves forward.

Alexk98
Member
Alexk98
5 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

The Hummer is certainly a testament to a lack of focus on efficiency, and the Chevy/GMC standard EV trucks are similar. The one thing they really have going for them is the oversized batteries mean they can actually tow with reasonable range, and the excess battery capacity makes job site power-station duty far less impactful to vehicle usability.

Love it or hate it, for the sort of fleet customers that want to buy an EV pickup, the Silverado EV is by far and away the most usable option for real work truck duty.

Harvey Firebirdman
Member
Harvey Firebirdman
6 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

I guess it will depend on how the new bolt does but I have been seeing a lot of equinox EV’s popping up all around lately on top of a lot of Lyriq and Blazers yes they are all the same platform but look at most manufactures EV’s they are normally all on a shared platform hell you can even say the same for most ICE vehicles.

Scoutdude
Scoutdude
5 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

GM is solidly in 2nd place of EV MFGs when you count the Honda/Acura badged vehicles they produce. Even w/o those they managed to get the second place last quarter. Once the next Bolt drops they are likely to pull further ahead of Ford.

As far as the trucks go when you combine the Chevy, GMC and the handful of Hummer Pickups they are in the number 1 spot, just ahead of Ford.

Of course Ford is in a much better place financially since the Lightning doesn’t have a bespoke body and they aren’t spreading themselves across so many models in the CUV space.

Rick C
Rick C
3 hours ago
Reply to  Scoutdude

GM is no longer working with Honda on EVs, almost two years now.

https://insideevs.com/news/693180/gm-honda-ditch-affordable-ev-plan/

Username Loading....
Member
Username Loading....
5 hours ago
Reply to  D0nut

Does anyone have more than 1 viable EV platform?
Kia/Hyundai: E-GMP
VW: MEB
Tesla: M3/MY (I wouldn’t consider the S and X or cybertruck viable at this point)
Ford: Does not have one current EV platform Lightning is a modified ICE platform same with Mach E
Rivian: Only the R1 platform until the R2s come out
Lucid: Air and Gravity I would presume are the same
I could go on but I think the point stands.

PBL
PBL
4 hours ago

Does anyone need more than 1 viable EV platform? Once sales start to represent more than a quarter of the overall market then maybe.

As it stands, most of the ICE-centric producers are only halfway committed anyway. Even if they are using 800V architecture they are still building cell-to-pack skateboard chassis or adapted ICE designs instead of cell-to-chassis/body. Only Tesla and Lucid are currently building CTC products, I believe, though Rivian is looking to do CTB with the R2. Meanwhile, the Chinese firms are already doing CTB.

3laine
3laine
2 hours ago

It’s an interesting thought, but to be fair, even for big ICE companies, the number of platforms for mainstream vehicles is now very small. Just the MQB platform for VW is like 100 different models.

RallyMech
RallyMech
6 hours ago

Meanwhile, we are seeing marginal competitors dramatically scale back their products and plans, which should end much of the overproduction and irrational discounts we’ve seen in the marketplace.

I think “everyone who wants an EV has already bought one” is far from true),

Everyone who wanted one already bought one, at old prices. Overproduction and irrational discounts seem to have found new buyers while the federal subsidization is still in effect. Great time for a fire sale before the government faucet is closed.

I bet there’s huge news from both sides of the issue on how EV sales have “absolutely cratered” after the credits stop flowing, and somehow that indicates something substantial on consumer EV sentiment.

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
5 hours ago
Reply to  RallyMech

Canada cancelled it’s tax credit a while back (though some provinces still have their own). I don’t have industry numbers but a visual scan of the roads and parking lots suggests EV sales have not cratered. There are plenty of newer models in the wild that were not produced back during the credits. Perhaps the market up here has more people that just ‘want’ an EV. There was even a mention in the local paper of Kia releasing a model here that won’t be available in the US. No details on what that will be yet.

It’s also possible that local electricity rates play a part. I hear these can be substantially higher in some parts of the US.

RallyMech
RallyMech
4 hours ago

Hawaii is figuring out this is a problem for their limited capability coal powered grid. At least it’s hard for them to drive far.

There’s a lot of places in the continental US where charging costs about the same per mile as gasoline even after taxes.

Not to mention the used EV market is still very sparse compared to gassers or hybrids. For a large percentage of Americans, the closest they’ll ever get to owning a new car is a rental.

Rick C
Rick C
3 hours ago
Reply to  RallyMech

Hawaii has quickly transitioned to solar, to get away from the costs of importing the constantly needed fuel for power plants.

Rick C
Rick C
3 hours ago
Reply to  RallyMech

The sales spike proves people still want EVs. As always, with any purchase, the price matters, not the technology.

RallyMech
RallyMech
3 hours ago
Reply to  Rick C

It doesn’t prove anything. The incentives coupled with the fed credit just means people bought discounted vehicles while they were available, instead of other vehicles that didn’t have incentives and federal subsidy.

Harvey Firebirdman
Member
Harvey Firebirdman
6 hours ago

Conspiracy time watch the credit expiration get pushed out (doubt that will happen but would be funny) as this was a ploy to drive up sales for car companies. You threaten to take away a “sale” or “incentive” on something and people go flocking to buy said thing.

RallyMech
RallyMech
6 hours ago

It’s the JCPenney’s, now Kohl’s, method. Buy normal product, list normal price for 10x cost, then ‘discount’ that price to 7x. Lower price further to 5x when you need to clear inventory.
People buy more because they think they’re getting a deal but wouldn’t buy the product even at 5x price normally without the sale aspect. The implied value is 100% fake, but the profit margin is real.

Harvey Firebirdman
Member
Harvey Firebirdman
6 hours ago
Reply to  RallyMech

Yeah there are many times when shopping nowadays when I look at “sales” or “clearance” and compare it to online prices to see if it actually is a sale most of the time yeay it is some bs because it is already marked up but they can say hey you are saving 50%

Harvey Sweeney
Member
Harvey Sweeney
6 hours ago

What’s up Harvey

Harvey Firebirdman
Member
Harvey Firebirdman
6 hours ago
Reply to  Harvey Sweeney

Hello fellow Harvey (though mine is just an alias haha)

Harvey Sweeney
Member
Harvey Sweeney
5 hours ago

Same!

Crank Shaft
Member
Crank Shaft
4 hours ago
Reply to  Harvey Sweeney

Hello Harveys! You guys sure know how to multiply.

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
2 hours ago
Reply to  Crank Shaft

Pookas everywhere!

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