General Motors Was (Mostly) Right

One of my favorite uses of The Morning Dump is to make big predictions and, if they come true, to feign the appropriate level of modesty while also pointing out that I was correct. One of my least favorite uses of TMD is to eat crow.

A couple of years ago, I was skeptical that GM could balance a desire to keep its stock price up with all the other investments it was making. Unless the company does a surprise announcement of a new Cimarron today, it’s likely GM is going to have the best-performing major automotive stock this year.

Given how much crap GM takes for making short-term decisions that betray its own long-term hopes, it’s only fair to point out that GM made a lot of difficult moves the last couple of years that have made it, at least in the medium-term, a successful company.

Porsche? Anyone would have wanted to be Porsche just a few years ago. Now the company is on its back foot, which means there’s a lot of opportunity ahead for its new CEO. If you love cars as I do, I think you’re hoping Porsche figures it out in the coming years.

I love automotive as a topic because it’s both a part of our everyday lives, while also being this huge, ridiculous industry. To wit, I’m going to end on some great advice from an unusual source.

GM Was A Winner This Year

One of my favorite quotes on the Internet is:

The haters said we couldn’t do it. And they were correct. Honestly, great call from the haters.

I am not a GM hater. I quite like GM and agree with David that the company has the best engineers on the planet. Many of its products are among my favorites, including its big SUVs, hi-po Cadillac sedans, and affordable offerings (Envista/Trax). At the same time, I believe Bob Lutz when he lays the blame for some of the company’s lesser moments on short-sighted accounting decisions more designed to boost the stock price than to set the company up for long-term success.

It’s with this background that I mentioned, a couple of years ago, that GM CEO Mary Barra’s plan to shore up its stock price with dividends and other actions gave me a bit of agita. With all of its EV investments, Cruise AI, and everything else going on, was this really wise? Here’s what I wrote back in 2023:

The world is a complex place, and Barra deserves credit for winding her way through difficult times and restoring some faith in the company. But this is a huge step backward in my mind (and I‘m not the only one who thinks this is weird). Yes, the company’s truck and SUV business is very profitable and I also think their new EVs look very good, but if I were a GM shareholder I’d want them to invest as much as possible in hybrids and fixing their Ultium production. It’s nice that GM will be profitable this year and that the strike is only going to cost about a billion dollars, but in what universe does GM not need every cent to survive a future with Chinese automakers expanding in Mexico and Tesla showing no signs of slowing down?

GM did eventually fix its Ultium production issues, and China and Tesla seem like less of an immediate threat to a company that’s extremely focused on the United States. Would I have taken some of that money and invested it in hybrids? Yeah, 100%, and I’m sure with hindsight that GM execs might have done that as well.

Even in 2024, I was curious if GM could maintain both its climbing share price and everything else, writing:

The broad view is that 2025 may be a good year for sales if something weird doesn’t happen, but it’ll probably be tight for automaker profits. I don’t personally think GM is cooked, I think it’ll do well, but I don’t think if we fast forward another 10 months that GM will be up 80% again.

Year-to-date, GM is not up 80%, but it’s up about 59%, which is pretty damn good. Besides making profitable vehicles that people tend to like, GM has stuck with its investments in Ultium and is therefore able to–if not make a lot of money–at least not have to write down billions of dollars like Ford. Also, it’s good at cutting stuff! From absorbing its Cruise robotaxi business back into the borg to letting go of the Brightdrop dream, the General has been smart to reconsider its strategic investments. Plus, the upcoming Hyundai-GM deal will likely yield a good EV van.

How are other automakers doing? Tesla is up about 20%, although it has a crazy market cap of $1.4 trillion. Ford is up 37% YTD, while Stellantis is down 14%. Toyota is up about 11.4%, while Honda is only up about 4%. Ferrari stumbled with a nearly 11% decline, although it has a higher market cap than either Ford or Honda. BMW, impressively, is up nearly 37%, which is ahead of the 30% rise for Mercedes. Just as a fun point of comparison, Bitcoin is down 5.2%.

Could things go wrong next year? Absolutely. GM has been too slow on hybrids in North America, and it’ll need to close that gap soon. Would I make a bet on GM failing? I would not. By betting on herself, CEO Mary Barra took home roughly $73 million, according to CNBC. Not bad.

What Does The Next Porsche Look Like?

No company has great years every year. GM, for instance, declared bankruptcy in the not-too-distant past. Porsche has had a mostly good 21st century, although an over-investment in electric cars and an underestimation of China have combined to tank the company’s profits.

Current VW CEO/Porsche CEO Oliver Blume is about to shed his Porsche role and hand it to ex-Porsche engineer/McLaren CEO Michael Leiters–who kind of looks like a Statham brother who went to business school instead of joining the SAS.

Automotive News Europe has a long read on what Porsche is going to have to do to get out of the runoff and back onto the straight. Besides the product pivots, there will eventually have to be some restructuring:

To restore stable double-digit margins with lower volumes, Porsche will need to cut costs by several billion euros over the coming years.

Negotiations over what is known as “Structure Package II” have already begun. An initial list of potential measures was presented to the works council and subsequently leaked. Proposals include cutting bonuses and long-service awards, reducing white-collar staff, tightening home-office rules and eliminating additional rest breaks on the assembly line.

The list also mentions reducing the number of apprentices and trimming employer contributions to pension plans.

Hear me out: A new 944.

Chinese Sales Continue To Rise In Europe

While Europe has levied tariffs against Chinese automakers, those levies were not as insurmountable as the ones from the United States. To wit, China likely grew a lot in Europe this quarter, according to analysis provided to Bloomberg:

Chinese carmakers captured a record 12.8% of Europe’s electric-vehicle market in November, building on gains made this year despite the cost of European Union tariffs.

In the fast-growing hybrid-car categories, Chinese brands resumed their rise, surpassing 13% across the EU, EFTA countries and the UK, according to researcher Dataforce.

One of the big winners has been the BYD Seal U, which is a PHEV that costs about €9,000 (or $10,500) less than the comparable Volkswagen Tiguan, as Automotive News Europe reports from the same data:

The two SUVs have been in a tight race all year to be Europe’s No. 1-selling PHEV, with the Tiguan behind the Seal U by 2,363 sales after 11 months, according to figures from market researcher Dataforce.

When comparing the SUVs, the compact-sized Tiguan has an electric-only range of up to 126 km (78 miles) while the midsize Seal U’s range is between 70 km and 98 km, according to WLTP tests.

The Tiguan’s lithium-ion battery is 25.7 kilowatt hours while the Seal U’s lithium iron phosphate battery is 18.3 kWh. But the combined power of the base version of the Seal U is slightly ahead of a comparable Tiguan, 160 kW (215 hp) vs. 150 kW (204 hp).

While the Tiguan might better it in many ways, it’s smaller and more expensive, which isn’t a great recipe for sales.

Let’s All Take Some Advice From Carlos Ghosn

It may not have ended well for ex-Nissan Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn, but the longtime auto exec was quite successful as a manager right up to the point that his subordinates had him arrested and he had to flee the country in a crate.

In an interesting shift, Ghosn has become a LinkedIn guru, dispensing advice like:

As we close 2025, remember: Performance Above All.

In a world that changes faster than most companies can adapt, one truth remains constant. The companies that hashtag#win execute relentlessly while others strategize endlessly. Every decision, every initiative, every day should be measured against one criterion: does it drive hashtag#performance?

Ghosn is a hashtag guy! Based on this ANE article, it seems to be working out just fine for him:

“I had a life full of events. There are a lot of things that I can share with the public,” Ghosn said in a December 11 online interview from Lebanon. He remains grounded in his ancestral homeland by an Interpol Red Notice seeking his return to Japan to stand trial on financial misconduct charges he denies.

“It’s a win-win situation, because I’m sharing my own life experience, not only limited to Lebanon, but globally, and from the other side, I’m receiving a lot of solicitation, requests.”

I put this out there on LinkedIn, but if anyone knows Ghosn, I think he’d be a great columnist. Right?

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

It’s the incredible Chuck Mangione with “Feels So Good” live from 1979.

The Big Question

Which voices would you like to hear on The Autopian in 2026? Anyone you’d like to hear more of next year?

Top photo: GM