If there’s a car you really want, and it’s a type of car no one is making anymore, you gotta buy it now. That’s just the rule. While it’s not entirely universal in application, it became clearer than ever that my weird tastes are not unique, and other people out there are going to buy some of the cars I want before I get a chance.
I should have seen this coming. There were signs. Last month, someone spent $125,000 on a manual Porsche Cayenne. It’s not just that the price was are-we-sure-this-isn’t-money-laundering high. It’s that a part of me wasn’t surprised.
Can you buy a new Porsche Cayenne with a manual transmission? I suspect that, given enough money, Porsche would do that for you. Just give the automaker 2-3 years and maybe $600,000, and it’s possible you could make that happen. When you compare the two numbers, it doesn’t make the $125,000 seem that ridiculous.
Few of these cars were built, so rarity does play into it. But it’s not just rarity. A Mazdaspeed MX-5 Miata is rare, too, and a super clean one sold on BaT for just $15,000 earlier today. If you want a fast, manual Miata, you can get a new one. Or a slightly used one. If you just want a quick manual sports car, there are all sorts of Boxsters and Toyobarus, too. There are also rare cars out there that aren’t being built anymore that aren’t particularly valuable. The absolutely nicest Saab Sonett isn’t worth as much as a mid-spec Toyota RAV4 Hybrid.
I’ve been noticing a trend and roughly forming a rule in my brain, which I will try to explain below. It’s premised on this Volvo V70R that sold on C&B for more than $40,000 after fees. It definitely proves the rule.
How To Know If You Should Buy Your Enthusiast Dream Car Now, Or Rule #33
I’m going to call this Rule #33, after Astros pitcher Mike Scott, who was within one out of a no-hitter on June 12, 1988, when Atlanta Braves’ Ken Oberkfell knocked a single to Kevin Bass in right field. This is a reminder that life is unpredictable, and you can think everything is going fine and then, bam, a $20k car becomes a $40k car.
Here’s the basic outline of the rule and my general thought process behind the criteria.
- The vehicle in question has to be desirable to more than just you.
This seems like a no-brainer, but I like super weird cars that not many other people care about. Would I like a Ford Festiva that’s been updated with the Kia Pride front fascia? Yes! Are there a lot of people like me? Not enough to fill your average YMCA swimming pool. I’ll be both delighted and terrified to find out there are, even though that means Kia-badged Festivas (or imports) are going to suddenly fall under rule #33. - The automaker still needs to exist and generate interest.
There are plenty of orphaned cars that are valuable, and if you don’t believe me, you can go to Pebble Beach next year and watch people spend real money on an Alvis. It’s just a lot harder because of some simple math implied in the first criterion. Eventually, the people who have wanted X car are not going to be in the market anymore… because they’re going to die. Automakers also help keep interest alive. Just look at Ford Bronco restomod prices. They were expensive before, but something about everyone walking around with a vintage Bronco t-shirt makes them that much more fashionable. The inverse can be true. Alfa’s fall from grace seems to have hurt the used Alfa market. Existing brands just create more fans than dead ones. - There needs to be a lack of good versions of that type of car in the universe.
If you can get a new, or even a relatively young used version of the car you want, that’s likely to reduce its value. I call this the E46 BMW M3 Paradigm. Though it’s an excellent car, E46 M3s have generally held a similar value. Look at this chart:
Values are creeping up, but because of the existence of the E90 M3 (V8) and other, newer M3 generations, it’s not like you can’t get another version of that car. To some extent, it just comes down to budget and taste (the more taste you have, the more you want an E46). Will this eventually change if BMW goes full EV? Sure, but even the latest M3/M4 is close enough to make that far out into the future. - It has to be in good enough shape and close enough spec to fulfill your dreams, but not so perfect you’ll be afraid to drive it.
This is the low-mile conundrum. Super low-mile cars come with just too much fear, too much baggage, and too much hassle. Can you enjoy the most perfect version of a car? In a dream, sure, but in reality, I kind of think the answer is “no.” Similarly, a car that’s in a super off-spec just doesn’t quite fulfill the dream scenario well enough. If everyone wants the slicktop manual coupe, the automatic sedan isn’t going to cut it. That’s why non-GT-R Skylines just aren’t worth all that much.
So those are my rules. I think if you’ve hit three out of four for a car you want, you’re in trouble. If you’ve hit all four, you might be too late.
The Perfect Example To Prove My Point
Ok, back to that Volvo over at Cars & Bids. I think this hits all the criteria, and also, it broke me a little because I have this on a list of cars I want to one day own.
Let’s start with the obvious, which is that I’m not the only person who likes Volvo wagons. I’ve had two of them, and both were sold pretty easily as there’s a going market for these vehicles. This particular model checks a lot of boxes in that it’s a spaceball (the Swedish minimalist six-speed manual six-speed shifter) car, with the dark orange Atacama interior, in the garulous Flash Green Metallic paint.
Obviously, Volvo is walking back its commitment to wagons, but it still exists and it still very much leans into its heritage. It’s far from an orphan brand, and even makes cars in the United States.
That being said, if you want a new manual sportswagon in the United States your choices are… you don’t have choices. There was the brief run of Jaguar XF Sportbrakes, but those were only automatic. Volvo did offer non CrossCountry V90s in R-Design trim if you did European delivery, but those couldn’t be had with a manual.
Was the last manual performance wagon sold in America the CTS-V Sport Wagon? That seems crazy, but it might be the case. A Jetta Sportwagen with the six-speed is close, maybe? What I’m saying is it’s a type of car we used to get a lot more of and now, other than the RS6 Avant and M5 Touring, we get none of in any reasonable price bracket.
This particular car is, as discussed, both the perfect spec and also not particularly low-mileage. It’s a daily driver, and it even has a few smart modifications.
It was probably always destined for a high price, and I’m kicking myself because it’s been on Craigslist nearby for months, and I can’t remember exactly, but I think it was being listed for like $25k. The asking price definitely wasn’t $40k. This exact car was also sold on BringATrailer in 2016 and it was a whopping $9,700. That’s a 400% increase in less than 10 years.
And it’s not a fluke! Something happened and these cars became way more expensive (especially if you toss out pandemic prices). I think it’s the E46 M3 Paradigm at play here. There were enough decently affordable sport wagons on the market and being made up until a few years ago, and now there’s almost nothing in the United States.
Can You Think Of Some Examples?
I’d love for you to challenge or modify Rule #33. Are there exceptions? Are there other perfect examples? What are some other cars that are on the verge of becoming a perfect Rule #33 car but aren’t quite there yet.
This is just something I’ve been kicking around, so I’m open to critiques regarding the criteria as listed. How does this rule apply when you consider that the sedans, while pricey, haven’t quite hit that same level of desirability? Is it just a wagon thing? A numbers thing?
Do trucks exist in a different paradigm? Is there a production volume where this rule just doesn’t apply anymore? Let me know in the comments below.
Last week we bought a silver over nordkap automatic 04 S60 R, 185k on it and it’s been reasonably well maintained. Now I really feel like we got a great deal on it. That wagon is the ultimate, but they’re definitely going to just keep appreciating I feel like.
“The automaker still needs to exist and generate interest”…but not too much interest. The Porsche 928 was arguably the best GT car of it’s era, but it was always too niche for most Porsche drivers. It wasn’t a race car, or trying to pretend it was, and that was always the fanbase. It wasn’t popular enough to generate any real interest.
Enter Jeremy Clarkson. In 2014 he told the story about how a 928 he had on loan back in 1994 allowed him to reach is father’s side in time to talk to him before he died. Interest in the car exploded, and so did the prices on good models. Here’s one dream-spec example that was bid up to 168K recently.
So…if your dream car was recently part of an online story or TV review that bumped it’s popularity, it might be time to buy before it becomes the next big thing.
As a former S60R (manual) owner… I can say confidently that there isn’t a planet where an R (sedan or wagon) is worth that much in any state.
I had always wanted them for their unique style, those cool wheels, awd + stick, 5 cylinder plus a turbo… what’s not to like?
…I did all the work myself (timing belt, water pump, tensioners), plugs, filters, fixed the AWD (and improving it!) by swapping in an XC90 controller, new lower control arms (surprisingly easy), heater core, and more shit I can’t remember.
It pains me to say this, but that car actually really didn’t meet my expectations. It was just ok, honestly, and wasn’t nearly as exciting to drive as I wanted it to be.
The front seats are a delight, but the overall interior room of this era of Volvos (especially the rear seat) is a joke for it’s size class. The turning circle on these R models is so bad you wish you had an F-150, and the handling was ok but not that great (even with aftermarket parts). It was a case of don’t meet your heros for me.
But… I picked it up for $2800 and sold it for more, so, no harm done.
I’d rather have my 500 Abarth back any day of the week vs. any R volvo.
Yeah, call me a pseudo-enthusiast or whatever but I’ve never thought the ‘fancy’ spec versions of cars are the ones to have. Maybe for BMW M cars and AMGs they truly are worth it, but in the case of Volvo R from what everyone has said it sounds like 110% of the P2 experience with 200% of the repair bill. I’d much rather have a FWD 2.3 T5 or even a 2.4 low-pressure turbo since it’s plenty of power with a lot more simplicity.
The best value is generally the cheapest version of a particular platform, and that is demonstrated by the fact that the cheapest version of the platform is almost always the lowest margin for the manufacturer, and the highest optioned version of the platform is almost always the highest margin for the manufacturer.
If you are comfortable paying for the highest optioned version of a particular platform, you should probably be stepping up to a better overall platform.
However, I think manufacturers are catching on to this, and either getting rid of the low-spec versions or paywalling critical options like manual transmission behind the highly optioned versions. The problem will be that for many platforms, a low-spec version will need to be offered to meet the required production scale to make a profit on the highly optioned versions.
There are 900+ billionaires in the US, over 21,000,000 millionaires (although a million certainly is not what it used to be), and the used car market is very imperfect, especially for rare cars like this one.
I suspect the $40,000 price was much more about what a particular person’s time is worth than what a 2004 Volvo V70R is worth.
This leads me to believe that for component swaps you double the ‘existing manufacturer’ rule. Both OEMs need to exist and be of interest.
Also, completing a manual swap on a car never offered with a manual is more of an appeal than a v8 swap in a vehicle that never existed from the factory since transmissions aren’t always OEM specific. It’s a 6 speed swap not a ‘Corvette transmission swap’.
B5 S4 is always the answer
B8 S5 – FTFY
If my ’04 XC90 were Flash Green Metallic, instead of the banal generic beige metallic that it is, I’d be keeping/driving it. I love that color, with (preferably) or without the Atacama orange interior.
I’ve had two V70Rs, and loved both of them. The first was totaled when someone tried to U-Turn across 4 lanes of traffic directly in front of me. It was a Silver over Tan with somewhere around 130k miles when it was totaled. I later found it for sale in Portland with a salvage title, so presumably it’s still on the road somewhere.
The second I currently own and have played with selling. Black over tan with the spaceball, somewhere around 160k miles. I was chasing a suspension clunk for months and almost threw in the towel. After replacing what I think is every suspension bushing on the car (and a lot of praying that it wasn’t the 4C struts) I think I have it solved. I can’t quite justify selling the car because of how hard it would be to replace.
Funnily enough, I own two of the cars discussed in this article – an ’08 Cayenne GTS 6-speed as well as the V70. I heard about both through friends/family and am very pleased for what I am into the pair of them for. The Cayenne remains the only car I have never negotiated on. The seller wanted automatic cayenne money for a stick shift car, and I agreed on the spot.
To add to the spec/rarity criteria – these kinds of cars are never easily found. If you type everything you want (trim, transmission, miles, etc.) into Autotrader/Search Tempest/Whatever, and don’t find more than 1 or 2 results, then that car is destined to fulfill Rule #33.
It took me months of looking to find my first V70R and it involved a plane ticket and 14 hours of driving to get it back home.
As far as contenders that fulfill this rule – I would argue the Turbo + Manual Subaru Baja’s fit the criteria. They are unique, exceedingly rare (especially with rust and head-gaskets claiming many), and don’t really have a modern equivalent – at least in the US. I can’t think of another example of a turbo stick shift sport truck. Maybe the only criteria they fall flat on its the universal appeal. I know most of the people on this site would appreciate a turbo Baja for it’s weirdness, but I’m not sure if the broader car community would.
To keep in the same vein, I’d imagine we’ll see E60 535 wagons (particularly M-Sport ones) going in this range. Not quite as rare as the V70R, but similarly desirable.
Another one to keep an eye on: 958.1 Cayenne GTS with the NA V8. The values have been surprisingly resilient since no one likes the six cylinder they used from 2016-2021. And since they’re Porsches, low mileage examples are out there…for a price.
You can buy our E61 535 M Sport right now, before prices go to the moon!
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2010-bmw-535i-xdrive-sports-wagon-36/
I am eyeing a panda i3 with the 120Ah battery, range extender, bamboo dash, big screen, and brown leather interior right now making this exact calculation
I sucked it up and bought my dream car brand-spanking new, and I think it still meets these criteria. And at the time, that HURT. That being my ’11 E91 328i wagon in RWD/6spd manual trim. BMW announced that ’11 was going to be IT for wagons in the US (they lied, sort of, we got a half year of E91 ’12s then they did bring the F31 after all, but no RWD and no manuals). So after having spent a few years looking for the RIGHT manual wagon used and finding nothing in the right combo of spec, condition, and price, I figured out that between doing Euro Delivery and a good dealer discount, I could just about swing the price of the thing. Thankfully, I travel for nearly free, so picking it up in Munich was no problem financially. The $40K on the road price HURT, but thankfully that was just when my career trajectory was taking off, so after the first couple years the payment didn’t hurt so badly and I paid it off in 3.5 years.
So that is how I ended up with one of ~450 such e91 wagons ever sold in the US, ordered to taste. And I still love it and will never part with it, though I definitely get the pain of owning a car that is basically irreplicable if anything happens to it.
It’s so good BMW badged it 328!:
https://flic.kr/p/FTRgCe
That they are keeping their value exceedingly well is a nice bonus, but I expect it to be pried from my cold dead fingers. I would live in it before I sold it.
Tasman…droooool. What color interior?
Chestnut. 🙂 Like Christmas every time I drive it.
A couple more pics:
https://flic.kr/p/2oWp2fs
https://flic.kr/p/ar53nh
To go all “old Corvette dude” – it’s one of two in the US in this color combination with RWD and a stick.
Matt, as the owner (and lover) of the P2 platform…go for a V70 T5 manual…it’s everything that you’d want in a hot Volvo wagon (268 hp, manual transmission) that’s easily upgradable, with none of the BS that comes with the “Four C” computerized suspension crap that will cost you an arm and a leg to fix and maintain. A few easy mods to the engine ECU, a few suspension upgrades and you’ve got a budget R.
Of course, good T5’s with a five-speed are also now creeping up in price. Long gone are the days of $700 Craigslist finds (like mine).
I’ve driven an S60R, and was completely whelmed. It looked fantastic and was unique, but I didn’t feel anything.
That V70R is a great though, and I like the wagon more than the sedan. And the color combo is *chef’s kiss*. Just a shame that it will most likely sit in a garage the rest of its life.
I owned a V70. Don’t bother, just buy an e91 BMW wagon. More reliable, cheaper and easier to own, if more expensive up-front (it’s worth it). And it’s not even close. Modern Volvos, meh.
Until you try and turn one around in the street has the turning circle of a battleship
Can confirm. 7 point turns are a thing.
Compared to my 740 it was scary
I snagged one of my dream cars recently: a Saab 9-3 Sportcombi Aero with a manual transmission.
It was low mileage (96k), so I “overpaid” for it at 6k$. Flipside is there are less than 500 of those in the US, so I guess I did OK.
Point is, I think this plays into your rule pretty well. Because Saab doesn’t exist any more (sad Swedish noises), I picked up a pretty rare enthusiast-oriented car in a format that just doesn’t exist anymore.
When the previous owner listed the vehicle, he initially was trying to get significantly more for it, but it just sat. I think people are just a little too afraid of the parts situation with Saabs. It’s better than people think, especially on the GM era vehicles, but if one or two storefronts go out of business it’s going to get a LOT harder.
I think the one other element you didn’t cover is where a vehicle sits in its manufacturer’s pantheon. My Saab causes somewhat confused feelings in the Saab community because of how much of the platform is shared with other vehicles. Heck, the engine is an Aussie Holden block with a Japanese turbo and German ECU tuned together in Sweden. A lot of fans dismiss it as “an Opal” or “A GM monstrosity.” So I don’t ever expect it to command the premiums a Viggen 9-3 or 900 SPG will.
I bought an ’08 9-3 Combi in 4cyl/6spd trim new in the ’09 GM firesale. Very good car – 80% as good as the BMW wagon that replaced it for a bit more than half the price after the crazy discounts when GM was blowing them out. The big engine version is a lot of fun too, if a bit less fun to live with by most accounts.
IMHO, having owned Saabs going back to a pair of ’69 Sonetts, GM SAVED Saab, and taught them how to properly build cars, then let them die of neglect, while inflicting them with a little too much GM penny-pinching in all the wrong places (like that stereo shared with a million Crapaliers). They took some decent GM bits and made them into a better whole than GM ever did themselves.
The other thing is Saab has never made a car that *wasn’t* a parts bin special of some sort. I mean, they ran an engine block for decades from Triumph of all people.
But yeah, GM saved Saab and then killed them again. Unfortunately, kind of par for the course for the General.
Side note, the big engine isn’t too bad to live with. It’s more reliable than the ecotech in terms of big problems. Only thing you can’t pass is a gas station though lol.
For sure! The only engines they really made on their own were the strokers, and even those were basically copies of DKW designs, though not bought in like the Ford, Triumph, and sundry GM engines. The Triumph engine evolved into the H-engine one small step at a time, but it’s a pretty direct lineage. Though it is also fair to say that “Saab” designed the EcoTech for GM.
I seem to recall they are rather less fun to wrench on, given how stuffed in there the V6 is. But for sure there is a BIG gulf in fuel economy between the two. Mine would get well into the 30s easily on a fast highway run. Cool cars either way. What year is yours? I feel like the later ones got both better and worse. The new interior was functionally better but looked and felt worse than the original, but I liked the exterior facelift quite a bit. ’08 was the first year to have both, IIRC. Still the best deal I ever got on a new car. $14K off MSRP.
I sold my Combi to the daughter of a friend, who eventually sold it to another friend. He posts on here occasionally. IIRC, it’s approaching a quarter million miles, but does need the head redone due to the usual valve issues.
Its a 2007, so facelifted interior but not exterior. The facelifted exterior is awesome, but the pre-facelift one remind me of my old 94 NG900 so I’m not complaining lol. I do wish I had the rabbit hutch center SID though.
The v6 is pretty stuffed in there. I did the whole cooling system on it recently, and if I never touch the serpentine tensioner again it will still be too soon. Flipside is the water pump was cake, and its notoriously bad on the Ecotechs.
I get 22 mpg with premium in town. Closer to 25 on a long highway run… Supposedly with a tune and no major upgrade it will make 350hp and 400 ft lbs of torque…
Compared to the other 4 bangers i’ve had (Focus ST, NG900) it is silky smooth. And there is power everywhere from 1800 RPM to the redline. The ST has a notoriously narrow power band.
I’m still in the honeymoon period though. Ask me how I feel when the electrical gremlins strike lol.
LOL – it will be fine, these cars are pretty stout.
For sure that stupid waterpump on the EcoTecs is a pain.
Shades of the early Saab B-motor levels of pain – though at least you can get the parts easily. Designers who think driving waterpumps and other accessories via timing belts and chains need to be thoroughly beaten until they see the error of their ways!
Is this the one in Denver that he listed for 12k originally?
Yep, that’s the one. I saw it right after our Corolla was totaled out by hail, and my wife was crazy enough to say “you should make an offer.”
Haha that’s funny, I was trying to get him to $7k but it was still early when he was asking for $9,500.. I didn’t actually see it in person but I think you got a good deal if it was as advertised!
It was for the most part. It’s not immaculate, but damn good condition for its age. Guess I had the right offer at the right time.
I went through and replaced the entire cooling system already. It was due a radiator and just decided to take care of it all while I was in there.
I think paying 6k is more than acceptable (especially if it was in good “nick” as they say on Wheeler Dealers), but that could be because of my default setting that wagons are always preferable to sedans when you have a choice. Congrats on the purchase!
That’s what I decided. It’s in good, not great condition. Some dings and scratches here and there, which is good because it means I can drive the piss out of it and not feel bad about it.
This article and photo, and street sighting of a beautiful curb-parked example yesterday supports my recent hankering for a 3rd generation XC70. No it’s not manual, or a real off-roader, but I’d love to have one for a few years just to take a few road trips and maybe camp with it a couple times. Am I crazy?
My god, that car is phenomenal.
So what you’re saying is that my gen5 Chrysler Town & Country Limited Platinum will shoot up in value sometime soon.
The vehicle in question has to be desirable to more than just you. Plenty of people want minivans. For family, transporting big stuff, work vans, etc.
The automaker still needs to exist and generate interest. Lots of Mopar fans exist.
There needs to be a lack of good versions of that type of car in the universe. Gen5 vans are gettting more rare and eventually will almost die out. Gen 4 vans are already there.
It has to be in good enough shape and close enough spec to fulfill your dreams, but not so perfect you’ll be afraid to drive it. It’s the Platinum spec so fully loaded and everything works. It also has 170000 miles so nobody’s afraid to drive it
I think I found the counterpoint to your theory.
There’s lots of other good minivans in the marketplace, so I think it fails that point.
I think you’re missing the mark on point number 3. There are newer and brand new minivans that fulfil the same purpose (or close enough) that will prevent your T&C from gaining value beyond a certain threshold (like the M3 in his example). People may want your van for specific reasons more than an early Pacifica, but they aren’t going to pay more than New Pacifica money for it.
So maybe high 5-figures but probably not a 6 figure car.
As pointed out, brand-new minivans can be had, and there is nothing special about the one you mention that those minivans do not have. And outside of contrarian automotive hipsters, most people are cross-shopping minivans with crossovers and prefer the latter.
RWD minivans and stickshift minivans are rare and not really made anymore, so those may keep some value, but in the $10,000s, or $20,000s if really clean, not some BAT/CAB six-figure special.
Also, Chrysler is on life support, and 170K is heavy mileage.
It’s captured in “There needs to be a lack of good versions of that type of car in the universe.” But it is now solidified that the stick version of anything, if it exists, is going to be worth significantly more.
The only tricky thing with stick is that CAFE is what was killing it, so if the government backs off CAFE enforcement, manuals may make a comeback. A C8 Vette with a manual would fuck the market for a lot of pre-owned high-performance manual cars from Vipers and Vettes to Lambos.
Otherwise, light, low, and two-door vehicles are hard to find new, so I see potential in vehicles with those traits.
I see the CR-Z and the Chevy Tracker holding value.
Continued growth in income inequality will impact the market. This Volvo was overbought, but it has a cool color, and some wealthy person was probably like, fuck it, it’s not worth my time to keep shopping to “only” save $10 or $15K.
There will be bargains because the wealthy can only buy so much. Two really nice 1-year-old RWD high-performance EVs could have been had for the price of an old ass Volvo.
Remember: if a popular youtuber makes a video on it, it’s gonna double in price soon.