California is not universally a tastemaker for the rest of the country, which is probably why the long-awaited West Memphis Erewhon has yet to materialize. When it comes to automobiles, though, California can claim a rich history of influence. From post-WWII hot rods and low-riders to post-GWOT electric cars, the car-crazy state has been at the avant-garde of automotive tastes. The latest data shows that a turn towards hybrids is beginning to materialize, while a turn against Tesla continues.
I want to break all that down in today’s Morning Dump, as well as look at some late-breaking tariff news. Specifically, the news that President Trump has another outline for a deal that involves Japan, and an outline for a deal with Indonesia. Both of these deals seem good for Japan and good for Indonesia, as well as for agricultural producers here in the United States.
Do you know who it’s bad for, though? As with the British deal, the Detroit carmakers seem to be getting the short end of the stick here. Is this intentional, or is it temporary?
The Growth Of Hybrids Comes With The Shift Away From Tesla
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, will have a big earnings call this evening. My guess is that he’ll say a lot about robotaxis, intervention rates, the success of the Model Y refresh in certain markets, and AI capabilities. I’m curious to see if he addresses investor concerns over his compensation package, the investment of Tesla into xAI, and the general slowness of sales in many countries.
And states! If California were a country, it would have the fifth-largest economy in the world (and the highest density of overrated burger places). The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) puts out a great report every quarter that looks at car sales in the market, and there’s something big that stands out to me:
Seven appears unlucky for Tesla, as this is the most recent number of quarterly registration declines reported in the state. The electric-only automaker experienced an 18.3 percent drop in registrations compared to the first half of 2024. The direct-to-consumer automaker lacks a robust dealership network for sales support, which may have contributed to a 2.7 point decline in its market share year-to-date, with Q2 alone seeing a 2.9 point decrease. This decline pulled down the overall Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) share in the state, which fell to 18.2 percent this quarter and 19.5 percent year-to-date, down from 22.0 percent in 2024.
Alternatively, hybrid vehicles are gaining momentum and paving the way for a cleaner, greener California. Registrations for hybrids have climbed 54 percent so far this year, now accounting for 19.2 percent of the market, totaling 181,192 registrations. Gasoline and diesel vehicles continue to lead, with internal combustion engine (ICE) models making up 57.5 percent of the market.
Ok, that line about how the “[a]utomaker lacks a robust dealership network for sales support, which may have contributed to a 2.7 point decline in its market share year-to-date” is wonderful. I’m not 100% certain that the biggest reason for the decline in Tesla’s sales is because it doesn’t have a dealer network, but it’s probably not helping, and I enjoy the dig. The bigger issue might have to do with increased competition and a more general loathing of Elon Musk.
As Bloomberg put it:
The results highlight the magnitude of Tesla’s ongoing sales slump. The carmaker’s global deliveries tumbled 13% in the second quarter, and analysts expect the EV maker to log a second straight annual decline this year, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The company is contending with an aging vehicle lineup, growing competition and a consumer backlash to Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk’s work with the Trump administration, even after the billionaire’s public falling out with the president.
Overall, the slump in Tesla has resulted in a slump for the California EV market, which has receded for three straight quarters. While Tesla has been one of the worst-performing automakers in terms of y-o-y declines in the first half of the year, both Volkswagen (-19.4%) and Rivian (-19.5%) are in worse shape. VW’s poorly-timed stop-sale on the ID.4 means that the automaker missed out on a lot of IRA Tax Credit sales.
To keep things in perspective, the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling passenger car (just barely ahead of the Camry) and the Model Y is the best-selling light truck (handily besting the RAV4). Will that trend change? It’s quite possible that Tesla sales will get a little boost in Q3 as people try to claim the tax credit, and then fall off a cliff in Q4. Here’s what the change looks like on a quarterly basis:
People are still buying cars in California, and those cars are increasingly hybrids. If you combine PHEVs and regular Hybrids, they account for around 1-in-4 new cars sold in California, with non-plug-ins dominating. Here’s what the situation looks like on an annual basis:
Hybrids have shown no sign of stopping, though you can see that the biggest year in growth for ZEVs (2021) coincided with the only flattening of the hybrid curve since 2018. It’ll be interesting to see how the loss of tax credits hits Q3. Will there be a rush, or was the rush in Q1?
Trump Has Outline Of A Deal With Indonesia
While we are well past “90 deals in 90 days,” there’s at least some sort of sense of urgency in the White House to get deals done. Other countries seem anxious, as well, and it’s almost like those countries are using a desire on the part of the President to distract from…. who knows what… to score reasonably good deals for themselves.
Here’s how the White House describes the deal, which will see Indonesia pay a tariff rate of 19%:
Eliminating Tariff Barriers: Indonesia will eliminate tariff barriers, on a preferential basis, on over 99% of U.S. products exported to Indonesia across all sectors, including for all agricultural products, health products, seafood, information and communications technology, automotive products, and chemicals, which will create commercially meaningful market access opportunities for the full range of U.S. exports, supporting high-quality American jobs.
Indonesia will address a range of non-tariff barriers, including by: (1) exempting U.S. companies and originating goods from local content requirements; (2) accepting vehicles built to U.S. federal motor vehicle safety and emissions standards; (3) accepting FDA certificates and prior marketing authorizations for medical devices and pharmaceuticals; (4) exempting U.S. exports of cosmetics, medical devices, and other manufactured goods from burdensome certification and labeling requirements; (5) removing import restrictions or licensing requirements on U.S. remanufactured goods and their parts; (6) eliminating pre-shipment inspection or verification requirements on imports of U.S. goods; (7) adopting and implementing good regulatory practices; (8) taking steps to resolve many long-standing intellectual property issues identified in USTR’s Special 301 Report; and (9) addressing U.S. concerns with conformity assessment procedures.
I’m not sure if there are a ton of vehicles that Indonesia wants, nor are there large numbers of Indonesian-built cars that Americans desire. We do import a lot of Palm Oil and semiconductors from Indonesia, and they take a lot of soybeans and some wheat from us, as well as computers and oil. As with a lot of these deals, it’s either mixed or bad for carmakers, but good for agriculture.
That’s not the big deal, though.
Washington And Japan Agree To ‘Perhaps The Largest Deal Ever Made’
Let’s start with the quote, via Truth Social:
We just completed a massive Deal with Japan, perhaps the largest Deal ever made. Japan will invest, at my direction, $550 Billion Dollars into the United States, which will receive 90% of the Profits. This Deal will create Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs — There has never been anything like it. Perhaps most importantly, Japan will open their Country to Trade including Cars and Trucks, Rice and certain other Agricultural Products, and other things. Japan will pay Reciprocal Tariffs to the United States of 15%. This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
The “perhaps” is doing a lot of work. The details aren’t fully out, so I’m not sure how this would qualify as the “largest Deal” in history. I don’t think it’s even the biggest US-Japanese deal (clearly, that was the LA Dodgers getting Shohei without having to pay him until my kid is old enough to drive).
Japanese markets exploded this morning with the news, which removes a big sword hanging over the heads of various automakers in the country. As with all the other deals, this isn’t a deal so much as an idea of a deal, but with President Trump able to adjust tariffs on a whim, it does give a lot of relief to Japan. It’ll also be great news for companies in America that produce rice “and other things.”
Cars? I am not so sure. In addition to having to move the wheel to the other side of the car, there’s not a ton of overlap between what we build and what Japanese consumers want. Are there people in Japan who want a Ford Raptor? Those people are going to be quite happy.
This does raise a big question about fairness to American automakers.
Detroit 3 Once Again Get Hosed In This Trade Deal
There’s a real opportunity for someone, maybe, to export cars from the United States to Japan. It might even make sense for Honda, for instance, to export CR-Vs from Ohio to Tokyo. I’m excited to see someone figure that out, and will keep a close eye on it.
In the near-term, however, all of these trade deals mostly suck for Ford, GM, and Stellantis, and for the same reasons that the US-UK trade deal kind of sucks. As I wrote at the time of the UK announcement:
The United Kingdom sent about 100,000 cars to the United States last year, meaning that the country’s current level of automotive exports can be maintained without the huge impact experienced by other automakers. In particular, the net duties on a Land Rover Range Rover with 5% parts from Canada or the United States will be lower than, say, a Canadian-built Chrysler Pacifica with 88% of its parts content coming from the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
That is madness. President Trump might come around to renegotiate the USMCA trade deal he himself insisted on in his first term, thus resolving these issues, but it hasn’t happened yet.
Automakers are getting a lot of what they want, including a reduction in CAFE fees, but that’s going to take a while to turn into vehicle development in most cases (and who wants to risk it if the next president isn’t a Republican?). The Detroit 3 have learned the lesson of Elon Musk, and so are careful not to criticize President Trump too much. Still, cracks are starting to appear, as Bloomberg reports (via Automotive News):
A group representing General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler-parent Stellantis raised concerns about a trade deal that could cut tariffs on auto imports from Japan to 15 percent while leaving tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico at 25 percent.
Matt Blunt, who heads the American Automotive Policy Council that represents the Detroit 3 automakers, said they were still reviewing the agreement but “any deal that charges a lower tariff for Japanese imports with virtually no U.S. content than the tariff imposed on North American built vehicles with high U.S. content is a bad deal for U.S. industry and U.S. auto workers.”
President Donald Trump has threatened to hike tariffs on Mexico to 30 percent and Canada to 35 percent on August 1.
White House spokesman Kush Desai defended the deal, calling it “a historic win for American automakers by putting an end to Japan’s unfair auto trade barriers for American-made cars.”
The intertwining of the three North American countries is very much the result of the USMCA trade agreement that President Trump himself pushed for in the first term. The fact that automakers are being de facto punished for that, whereas foreign automakers are getting better deals, is a lot to swallow.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
If you’ve heard one Sneaker Pimps song, it’s probably “6 Underground.” That’s a great, trip-hop-inflected tune. I’d argue “Tesko Suicide” is a better song, and also has 100% more old Jaguars.
The Big Question
Will Tesla sales rise in California in Q3? What about EVs overall?
Top graphic images: Toyota/Tesla/CNDCA
I had no idea that the tesla model y and the Rav4 were considered “light trucks.”
The idea that California influences the rest of the car market makes sense. Since David Tracy moved there, I’m seeing clapped out rust buckets everywhere. It’s like they’re de rigueur all over the place now.
Quote: To keep things in perspective, the Tesla Model 3 is still the best-selling passenger car (just barely ahead of the Camry) and the Model Y is the best-selling light truck (handily besting the RAV4).
What’s the source for these statistics? I’ve tried to find data to establish these claims and had no luck. Domestically neither seems to be true and worldwide the Model Y may be the best selling light truck, but the Model 3 is not the best selling passenger car. (Corolla)
To add.. all new Siennas and Camrys are hybrid only. Toyota, a noteworthy piece of the whole offers Hybrids in every model (except Supra and GT86, super low volume) at a price delta that actually has a short ROI even with average annual mileage.
Yup, one of the top automakers in the California market offers more options of hybrids (some are hybrid-only). Of course, sales of hybrids will increase.
It is right there in the first section.
“The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) puts out a great report every quarter that looks at car sales in the market”
Now I understand. I hadn’t registered that he was referring (it seems obvious now) to only California numbers.
Sneaker Pimps are a solid listen. “Sick” off Bloodsport is a personal favorite.
I don’t live in California so I am not sure what the public sentiment surrounding Elon is, but assuming it mirrors my state, I don’t think Tesla will rebound in Q3. I am happy that people are embracing Hybrid vehicles finally, but I think there are still a lot of 2 car households that have space for a full electric vehicle, mine included, and we are planning to rectify that with our next auto purchase.
Musk’s sucking of Trump’s little mushroom weenie has been a pretty public show (regardless of how all that actually worked out for Elon). It doesn’t take great imagination to accurately guess what Californians (now) think of Tesla. But…errr…refer to charts above.
Anyway, the offerings for BEVs are not full there yet, but they will be (hopefully). A lot of people are waiting for something like a Tesla, but not a Tesla (and with fit-and-finish appropriate for a moving 5,000 lb. machine, not for a Happy Meal toy).
“The direct-to-consumer automaker lacks a robust dealership network for sales support, which may have contributed to a 2.7 point decline in its market share year-to-date”
The California dealers association can fuck right off with that bullshit. Even if Tesla had the most robust dealer network in the world, it wouldn’t stop the political backlash caused by Musk cozying up to Trump as well as the damage he did with the idiotic and destructive “Department Of Government Erosion”
And I predict on a net basis, the USA will be a net loser with Trumps dumb-assed trade policy for the simple reason that people all around the world got pissed off with the USA due to Crooked Trump’s words and actions… and thus, are now avoiding US products and US companies by varying degrees.
“Will Tesla sales rise in California in Q3?”
No.
“What about EVs overall?”
Globally, I predict EV sales will continue to rise… only that Tesla’s sales won’t rise with it. And that will continue to be the case until Musk is separated from Tesla.
So you’re the CEO of a wildly successful company built on the idea of selling cars to well-heeled, tech-loving, enviro-conscious consumers who like the idea of driving a really cool car while “saving the world”. And then you (completely unnecessarily) run off to DC with a (literal) chainsaw to oversee the dismantling of major governmental organizations without even beginning to look at their efficiency or value, and which your demographic consider to be quite important. To the point at which you spawn a whole new market in bumper stickers that apologize for driving your cars. Congratulation, Elon, on providing future business students with a case study on why corporate officials should stay the hell out of politics
Don’t forget the literal Nazi thing.
“But he was just passionately and autistic-ly waving!” I seem to remember some guy in Germany in the 30s and 40s who was also a little passionate and a little off. I wonder what they have in common.
The surge in hybrid sales seems to reflect market demand since PHEVs meet more use cases. My feeling has been that the BEV market is at or near saturation so demand is slowing. Tesla is its own special case with the triple whammy of increasing competition, aging products with frequently criticized features and a polarizing leader.
With a 10k price premium over standard hybrids, and it being only useful if you can charge at home I would actually say the use case for most people suggests hybrids over PHEV. I only have a PHEV because of the 4k used car tax credit, otherwise I would have bought a hybrid that gets nearly the same fuel economy.
Not sure how you can say that a PHEV gets nearly the same fuel economy as a regular hybrid. For me, a 30mi range PHEV would cover about 90% of my trips, and 100% of the really inefficient “run down to the store” trips while using no gas at all. I’d only use gas for my trips to the airport or the big city a few times a month. If I had a commute, the savings would be even more. One would be the perfect car for me if there were any offered that I could stand to be in. Of course, YMMV depending on your driving patterns, but I either drive <10 miles or 100-1700, with not much in-between. And dozens of short trips for every long one.
It is certainly the case that the price premium negates a lot of that, but it doesn’t change the fact that a PHEV can use *significantly* less fuel, and with the relatively small battery, charging from a regular 110V socket is doable. Only 20% of Americans are renters – and that includes those who rent single-family homes, and in buildings with chargers. 66% live in owned single-family homes where charging a PHEV should be a non-issue.
My suspicion is that once the higher tax credit for one goes away, the price difference will get magically smaller.
I did the calculation when I owned a Prius, and at the electricity and gasoline prices where I live, the hybrid and PHEV Prius would have cost the same in terms of cost of energy. Also, the hybrid Prius gets better gas mileage than the PHEV Prius if you can’t plug in. Also, if you keep cars forever (unless wrecked) and have never sold your cars like me, you have to think about replacement battery costs. The PHEV battery is 4x the cost of the hybrid battery.
If you can’t plug it in, there is no reason to get the PHEV obviously. But not being able to plug in is simply not the norm in the US, as much as people like to use it as an excuse – especially for a car that really can about charge overnight on 110V. Even owning two houses, I am in the situation that adding a 220V charger to either of them would be wildly expensive to the point of negating the advantages completely. But if you can, you can feel like you are saving the planet rather a lot, and in many places save some cash. As always YMMV. Where I live, electricity is cheap. And my new house is going to have solar, which tilts the scales even more.
Very, very few people keep cars long enough to have to worry much about battery replacement, and Prius batteries historically last about forever. A friend has one with 300K on it. Something wildly expensive breaking is a risk with every modern car.
Part of the problem in CA, is that electricity cost has gone up a lot in the last year. A lot of CA politicians wanted to ‘sock it to PG&E’ by imposing huge fines on them for the wild fires. But the end result is that electricity costs have gone through the roof. So at this point in time there is no cost per mile savings with an EV, over a Toyota Prius. And EV’s cost maybe $5000 over a comparable hybrid.
Part of the problem in CA, is that electricity cost has gone up a lot in the last year. A lot of CA politicians wanted to ‘sock it to PG&E’ by imposing huge fines on them for the wild fires. But the end result is that electricity costs have gone through the roof.
This. There is no financial advantage of using even an overnight GGE of electricity at $0.31/kWh (not even factoring charger losses) over a gallon of regular priced under $4.20
I am in Virginia. Overnight/weekend/holiday is $0.119284 . Depending on usage, the day rate is 12.5¢ (whoopty-do). Regular is uner $3.
Those are some tough prices y’all have, but explain a lot, like you said, for the shift in purchasing.
I’m in CT, I pay $0.30/kWh, and gas is ~$3/gal. Still cheaper to have an EV.
Not if all else is equal, e.g. you are filling a PHEV with joules and gallons:
$0.30/kWh at the meter works out to be $0.33-$0.40/kWh in the battery:
https://go-e.com/en/magazine/ev-charging-losses
Using the PHEV model that translates to $4.29-$5.19/gallon.
https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=customize&return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fueleconomy.gov%2Ffeg%2FFind.do%3Faction%3Dsbs%26id%3D44930%26id%3D49015%26id%3D37309%26id%3D41183%26%23tab1
That would go up if you had to charge at a public station which in my admittedly limited search looks to cost between $0.45-$0.51/kWh in Virginia.
Let’s say you have a Tesla M3 which gets 25kwh/100mile. If you drive 10,000 mile per year that would be 2500kwh. At 30c per kWH that would be $750 for the year of driving.
Now let’s compare with a Toyota Prius with 50mpg. That would be 200 gal of gas to go 10,000 mile. So your annual expenditure would be $3 X 200 = $600. The hybrid wins.
Yeah, but my other cars are not a Prius. You are correct. But, you also chose the one car that the whole world should be copying, but isn’t. The new Prius is awesome.
I just don’t want to burn fossil fuels anymore. I’ll shut up about it moving forward.
Haven’t they also curtailed or stopped giving out carpool lane stickers for EVs? If I had to commute in the parts of CA that have them (the parts where all the people live), that alone would be reason enough for me to buy an EV. Every time I am in the bay area I sit in traffic while the EVs hurtle past in those lanes. Some clients have said buying a car that qualified for the sticker cut an hour off their commute time.
Many of the busier areas have FastGrab “Lexus Lanes” now so single occupant cars can pay to use it. As you may guess I’m NOT a fan! I have seen it cause nothing but confusion and delay while putting money in other people’s pockets.
Yeah, I am not a fan of those either in principle, but that doesn’t stop me from using them every time. Especially when it’s somebody else’s money, and other than my migrations to and from Maine, it always is.
I got a ticket for using one just after it went online. I had a carpool of three (the other two were in the back seats) but no transponder. They oh so generously waived the fee but only if I put $50 down to open an account and they sent me a transponder.
Based on that ticket by mail and the fact I almost never see LEO eyes on those lanes I’m pretty sure one could (and i imagine many do) just set the transponder on carpool and use the lane solo*. I doubt those cameras have any way to prove the back seats aren’t full of toddlers.
*Do at your own risk.
The Bay area seems to love to station CHiPs along the carpool lanes, so I would not try that there.
As I said I rarely see them on the road as it is, even less doing anything to enforce those lanes. Given the useage fees FasTrak charges the risk of penalty might be cost effective:
“The following is a schedule of penalties:
First Toll Violation Notice Issued: Unpaid toll + $10 penalty due (if paid within 21 days of receipt)
Second Toll Violation Notice Issued: Unpaid toll + $30 penalty. If the toll is paid within 15 days of the second notice, the penalty will be reduced to $10.”
https://www.bayareafastrak.org/en/help/invoices-and-penalties-faqs.shtml
That gives me an idea: Hey Autopian! How about an expose’ on the bullshit of FasTrak?
YMMV, I guess. I notice them because motorcycle cops are so unusual where I am from. I’m usually on 101 between SFO and Redwood City when I am out there, I imagine enforcement varies wildly, like it does here.
Those fines are really reasonable. Much more expensive to not pay a toll on this side of the country. Maine will pretty quickly suspend your registration too. Then you are in for a world of criminal court and car impoundment expenses fun if a cop runs your plate.
I imagine those fines are low only temporarily. FasTrak is still in the adoption phase and once the hooks are fully sunk in I imagine the fines and fees will only go up.
I think they got rid of those several years ago already. The cars you see zipping by, are doing so because they paid the toll. That carpool lane is basically a toll lane. You want to bypass the traffic jam, then you pay the toll and use the carpool lane.
The reality is that PG&E and the other investor owned utilities buy politicians who let them pass on the costs of their years of negligence instead of making them be responsible for their own greed, and still let them make billion dollar plus quarterly profits on top of it. Not the other way around.
This is the 56 cent C-hook that PG&E neglected to replace that cost 85 people their lives and caused $16.5 billion in damage.
Plus a 3 year old Ioniq 5 is both cheaper to buy, cheaper per mile to run, and better to drive than a 3 year old Rav4 Hybrid.
That C-hook in question was 99 years old at the time of failure, and was entered as evidence in the manslaughter trial against PG&E. It was many decades past needing replacement.
The bottom line is that the wild fires are caused by Global Warming, which causes the woodlands to dry out extra dry in the summer time. PG&E is not doing anything differently than what they had done for the past 120 years. It’s wrong to heap all the blame on PG&E. We need better fire detection and possibly more controlled burns.
Then why did PG&E plead guilty to 84 counts of manslaughter? Sorry man, but the fire was caused by their gross negligence and they should absolutely be held responsible. Unfortunately, because they were able to buy a bunch of politicians, they were able to make their customers pay instead of it coming out of their own coffers.
These “the latest tech” fads always fade. Soon, very soon, the horse and buggy will be back. Resolving poisonous air emissions while creating a plentiful source of organic fertilizer. And a major breakdown will be a a good source of protein for the masses. Win, win, win.
And the jobs that will be created! We’ll need to bring back gong farmers!
And mule breeders!
I love your optimism.
Tariffs, aka taxes on American consumers, on Japanese goods go from ~2% to 15% and we’re supposed to be happy about it? If Mazda just passes on the tariff, that takes the starting price of a Miata from $30,765 to $34,765. For what, exactly? So the Japanese can continue to not purchase American cars that don’t work on their roads? Are people in Japan clamoring for Silverados and Suburbans?
For the love of dog. This Administration has no idea what it is doing. These tariffs are going to kill world trade. 19% is good?!?
Even if the tariffs go away the damage is done. Who is going to invest in America? It’s a big market, but now it’s unstable, exporting from there is going to be cost prohibitive, and even if you do build something tomorrow it could suddenly be a risk because the president got mad at… Something.
“Unstable” doesn’t begin to describe it. And there’s absolutely no reason to believe that this will change anytime in the next 3-1/2 years or so.
“Even if the tariffs go away the damage is done.”
You’re goddamn right about that.
Take a Canadian like me for example… I recently bought car parts. Do you think I bought it from Texas-based RockAuto like I used to?
Hell no!
I buy my parts now from PartsAvatar. And that’s unlikely to change… ever.
As for investments, not long after Trump came back in and started talking about his idiotic tariffs, I dumped a mid-six figure amount of direct and indirect US investments I had in my pension as well as my brokerage account.
Because of many MANY people like me, the US dollar has been falling against most other currencies.
And do Americans think Canadians, Europeans and many others are gonna take vacations to the USA again any time soon? In my case, the answer to that is a solid “Hell No!”
The only thing that will change my view is not anything any American says.
It will be what Americans DO.. such as how they vote in the US mid term elections next year.
If the American voting public truly has as much regret as claimed about idiotically voting in Crooked Trump a 2nd time, then the Democrats should have a solid landside victory in the midterm elections that are coming.
I want to see the Republicans lose so badly that there will be talk about bringing back the Whig party.
If I don’t see that, I’ll consider all the ‘sorry’ talk to be collectively a bunch of bullshit and I’ll continue to avoid American products, American businesses and not step foot back into the USA.
Canadians like me don’t always say ‘sorry’.
Sometimes we say “You’ll be sorry”.
I don’t blame you guys at all. Elbows up.
Thanks for the tip about parts avatar. I need misc filters and will try them out!
“And do Americans think Canadians, Europeans and many others are gonna take vacations to the USA again any time soon? In my case, the answer to that is a solid “Hell No”
So you’re saying Yosemite and other popular National parks MIGHT not look like the planet of Gideon next year?
“ This Administration has no idea what it is doing.”
Yeah that was well documented the first time Crooked Trump was in office and yet enough people STILL voted for him to come back into office.
Trump and his gang of idiots are only half the problem. The other half of the problem are the idiots that support and voted for him and treat being Republican as part of their identity.
re: CA hybrid sales. No big deal. Camrys are hybrid by default now. More normie cars are becoming hybrids, a trend that I thought would have taken off 15 years ago or so but here we are.
Yeah, this really should’ve happened sooner.
My take, and hear me out, the current push toward hybrids should have happened instead of the mass of EV’s over basically the past decade. The EV tax credits should have gone toward HEV’s instead while the country built-out the mass charging infrastructure.
I’m not going to crunch the numbers but I’m willing to bet we’d be in a better place environmentally for the same or less financial cost.
Akio Toyoda has had a lot to say about this specific topic (and he agrees with you). He’s only the Chairman of the largest auto manufacturer in the World, so no big deal.
The best use of 300 miles of battery is putting 30 miles of battery in 10 cars. Or 10 miles of battery in 30 cars. Makes far more difference.
Toyota was right, as usual.
I will say this. I bought my first hybrid in March (Civic hatch). Having experienced the smoothness of EV mode, especially in the city/”close-in” suburban context where I live, I wouldn’t go back to 100% ICE again unless it was some used car bargain. The way the car just glides along, then has power immediately on tap when you need it is intoxicating, and 50mpg is a very nice side bonus. I was amenable to a plug-in (since many plug-ins are more powerful than plugless hybrids) but for my current living situation it would just be too much of a hassle. I agree that if more people owned hybrids 10-15 years ago, they’d probably be more likely to move to EVs now.
“Will Tesla sales rise in California in Q3? What about EVs overall?”
I suspect Tesla and other EV sales will continue to decrease in California. I’m not sure this is a problem, though.
From the data above, it isn’t clear to me that this is reflecting decreased interest in EVs. This is sales data and not current registrations, right? Is this a situation where everyone who wanted an EV already bought one? Given people keep their cars for several years on average, it would make sense for there to be a lull in new EV sales once early adopters have already bought one.
Also, the decrease in new EV registrations appears to be smaller than the increase in new hybrid registrations. If this is the case, it seems to indicate a greater number of buyers are going from ICE to hybrid than going from EV to hybrid. Is this indicating hybrids are supplanting ICE vehicles as the default powertrain? That would be a good thing.
Maybe I am seeing what I want to see, but this sales data seems encouraging. Buyers of EVs and hybrids are probably two distinct populations. From my experience, buyers of EVs are highly motivated to drive an electric vehicle for environmental reasons or because they are interested in a new technology (I bought my EVs for both of those reasons). Hybrid buyers, on the other hand, are just people who need or want a new car. From an environmental perspective, it seems more important to get “normal” people to buy hybrids than it is to get a subset of enthusiasts/nerds/greenies to buy EVs.
This underlines my point in the my reply to Bill C’s post above about why the EV tax credits should have been more HEV focused. I completely agree with your thinking.
I wonder if the curve going down around 2018-2020 for PHEV is the discontinuation of the Chevy Volt.
Electricity in California is expensive but still cheaper than gas. With those gas prices, I understand why they were leading with EV sales in the US. We all know Tesla going down is because FAFO.
Electricity in California is expensive but still cheaper than gas. With those gas prices, I understand why they were leading with EV sales in the US. We all know Tesla going down is because FAFO.
Not in PG&E country. Rates for EV2 range from $0.31-$0.62/kWh.
Using a few PHEVs as models (most accurate way to compare apples to bananas I can think of) those prices translate to $4.10-$8.20 per gallon of gas. Gas buddy shows several stations that are cheaper than $4.10/gal for regular.
Should have gotten solar and a power purchase agreement. I’m at 13 cents a KWh in Southern California.
Good for you. I’m in the SFBA with PG&E so not an option for me.
That’s a false dichotomy. The correct question is: “Is this intentional, or do the people running the country have no f***ing clue what they’re doing?”
It’s also a warning to any other corporations *cough*CBS*cough* who might capitulate to Trump. He’s not going to scratch your back because you paid him millions of dollars and fired one of his most vocal critics because he doesn’t care about you. He only cares what he can get out of you.
There’s a reason why they didn’t fire Colbert with immediate effect, instead letting his contract run out next May but announcing it now.
Well, the first one is that Colbert would ask for more than Trump got to buy him out, just starting the cycle over, but there are others…
According to Google, the median salary of an Indonesian is about USD3000 per YEAR. I’m sure they will be lined up to buy the newly available for import F-350 King Ranch.
Security at the nickel refinery will use a big truck to keep the rift-raft away
It’s not a requirement for new vehicles in Japan to be right hand drive. In fact, left hand drive has been somewhat of a status symbol there, and importer Yanase has been selling new LHD American and European vehicles there for a long time.
https://www.curbsideclassic.com/curbside-classics-american/curbside-classic-1994-buick-regal-estate-wagon-wait-what/
The state’s influence started far earlier than that. Earl Automotive Works dates back to before not just WWII but WWI and it produced an array of leading designs for coachwork. It also produced Harley Earl.
The temporary dip in EV sales in California towards hybrids AND away from Teslas are just that. People are looking for more EV choices, which right now, is a collection of high priced vehicles and a bunch of cookie cutter suv/cuv designs. Small car and/or hatchback models like the (new) Bolt and others will reverse this temporary trend.
Thank you! It’s good, but it’s not that good. Not nearly good enough to justify those lines. Is it something in the water?
I would say burgers in general. I need one maybe once a month…maybe less. I don’t get the worldwide obsession.
What place are we talking about?
Pretty sure it’s In-N-Out they’re talking about. It’s the same thing here. We have one of the few remaining Big Boy drive throughs here and the line outside of it is absolutely bananas most of the time, at least half a city block. Their burgers are fine, their fried chicken isn’t that good anymore, and the prices are too damn high. A 20 piece chicken box is approaching $60. It wasn’t more than a couple years ago it was less than half that. That doesn’t entirely account for inflation.
That tracks, the line outside some In-n-Outs is insane and can sometimes block traffic. That said I work near one and occasionally go there for lunch and the crowds aren’t bad.
IMO In-n-Out burgers aren’t the best out there, but they’re a solid value compared to other burger joints which is why I still go there.
My wife is an LA native–she’s always preferred Carl’s Junior to In-N-Out. I think I prefer it, too. But I prefer 5 Guys to all burger joints, though they have gotten expensive recently….
I’ve been to 5 Guys… they’re good, but also overrated. There are other independent places in my area that are better for the money.
All the local weekly articles calling them the best burger in town, in many towns all over the country, are at least 15 years old now…
I suppose it depends on which town.
I’m in Toronto. There are many MANY options for a great burger.
Remember that the author was born and raised in the state that itself is pretty much neck-and-neck with California in per-capita overrated burger joint counts, and ahead of even that state and New York in unjustified self-regard.
In-N-Out is one. The lines are indeed baffling.
Many of my former coworkers used to like a place IIRC “The Counter” where you would pay a huge sum for the privilege of a just OK customized burger and fries that took forever to be brought to your table. I guess the novelty of the place was in the three minutes left to scarf it down before it was time to leave.
I did not like that place. Very overrated.
I believe I’ve deciphered this because I often visit Dallas and hear similar griping from family.
Texans have to drive past In n Outs with lines down the block and fifteen employees who are paid a decent wage, while private equity owned Whataburger struggles to deliver an order in under half an hour because they only have three underpaid employees in the whole store. The Texans in question then say In n Out is overrated.
Drove through Seattle over the weekend and there were points on I5 where I had 7 Tesla’s in my field of view at the exact same time. A shocking number of them were the new refresh with the light bar too.
$5/gal gas and $0.13/kwh means EVs pencil out well up here and tesla is still the best option for the money
If only I could be as amoral as the “moral majority”
Maybe it’s just a reminder that most people, aka normies, don’t really care beyond what directly affects their wallet. The majority of the US doesn’t pay attention to politics except presidential election years, and only 63.1% of eligible voters care enough to vote then.
Data from <Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections | The American Presidency Project>
Yeah, that’s a sad thing to be reminded of.
Not surprising that a bunch of white collar Amazon and Microsoft STEM majors have different views on Tesla.
As infrastructure builds out I think the ev trend will continue, and with the pace of improvement, older evs will get cheaper, like my perfectly running Bolt that Carmax offered a whole $4k for. If the average commuter can manage any kind of reasonable charging, at home, at work, at the Sheetz next to where they get lunch, it’s just such an easier option to maintain than a gas car, they’re literally an appliance like that 20 year old mixer in the cupboard that you use once a year when baking Christmas cookies.
Well, now I had to look up what “Sheetz” was while at a work. I hope I’m not on a list. Had never heard of it, but based on where they operate, that makes sense.
A whole swath of the east coast has their mouth agape at this comment.
When EVs that aren’t a Bolt hit the sketchy buy here pay here lots and charging stations are at least half as common as a gas station (currently 61k, would need to be roughly 73k) I’m inclined to agree. I think we’re still 2-5 years out from that point.
The reason I say something other than a Bolt, is they’re the equivalent of an econobox to most people and not simply a normal car.
Oh it’s definitely an econobox, but for a daily commute to just crank miles on and not care about, it’s pretty good, saves the nice cars for the weekend.
My commuter is a 2008 Avalon I bought for 3k. Yes it costs roughly $0.10/mile in gas, but it’s a comfortable highway car for my 600mi weekly commute. Insurance is approx $150 for 6mo for basic coverage as well. Yes the fuel costs add up, but to replace it with an EV would require the vehicle to be less than $13k including insurance to break even in 2 years. Yes I’m an outlier compared to the vast majority of drivers, but for a sufficiently cheap EV that can do 200mi/day in subzero weather, my commute would work. Currently, nothing is cheap enough to cross that threshold.
Dang 600 miles a week, that’s harsh.
Man 4k for a running bolt sounds good to me. Id use it for that.
I bought a 1st Gen Volt about a year ago to run around town. I paid $1800 for it, yeah its a beater but everything works and it even looks good still at 20 feet. I’ve put gas in it once and still have nearly a full tank. I’m looking forward to our EV beater future.
I think we all need a reminder of who actually pays the tariff.
That’s a Pandora’s Box I’m waiting to open if/when we get more data.
Really? What data is going to change the fact that American companies and consumers pay the tariffs? Are you suggesting that this is going to turn out to be an Indonesian export tariff that they’ll pay?
I’m willing to go out on a limb and bet Matt’s just waiting for the numbers on just how much the tariffs cost Americans.
I just spent $800 on tariffs to import a 30-year-old Japanese telescope from a seller in France.
So yeah I think we know pretty well who pays the tariff.
By the way a telescope like that had not been made by an American manufacturer for decades. So the tariff saved exactly zero jobs. In fact now that I’m out $800 that’s money I could have spent on US consumption.
Tariffs cost US jobs.
That sounds like a cool telescope. 1980s-1990s Japanese manufacturing was something else.
If I’m going to have only one scope till I die, it’s going to be a Takahashi.
Is it fairies? It’s fairies, isn’t it?
I’m hoping that the next twist in the tariff, etc saga is that Texas secedes, which then triggers a border wall and 50% tariffs on cars built in Texas that ship across the new border. Tariffs on exported Texan oil too. That would be highly entertaining.
As a Texan, I would vote against Texit.
You presume there would be a vote and not just the state legislature doing it on their own.
The twist after that will be that the border wall is between Texas and Oklahoma.
I’m surprised we haven’t already started on that.
Stop the presses, the Model 3 is the best-selling car in CA and the Model Y is the best-selling truck? That just feels weird. These are very purpose-build machines that can do a pretty good impression of a regular car, but still.
As much as CA might be the epicentre of US car culture — and I can’t disagree with that for many reasons — I still think some of these EV trends are anomalies that will be a footnote one day.
I get it for places like Norway where the combination of subsidies plus a very draconian anti-oil/carbon policy conspires to make Tesla look like the best option. But I’m still shocked EVs outsold hybrids anywhere. Ever.
I don’t get what’s draconian about not wanting your citizens to choke on fumes.
Quick question, where did Norway’s sovereign fund come from?
From oil they drilled in the North Sea and exported to other countries to burn.
That doesn’t invalidate my point that environmental regulation is good and more countries should follow their lead.
It probably should mitigate some high-mindedness, both from them and yourself.
Norway can afford draconian environmental regulations because their citizens are wealthy. The overwhelming reason their citizens are wealthy is because of extracting oil and gas, and prudent investment of proceeds from the same.
If they want to subsidize the purchase of EVs for their citizens while exporting millions of barrels of oil to be burned elsewhere, that is their right, but lets not pretend that it’s virtuous.
I’m not understanding how strict environmental regulations require a wealthy populace. In the majority of circumstances, reducing what you consume and emit is going to save you money.
If that were the case, the regulations and subsidies would not be necessary, because businesses and consumers would simply do what saves them money without coercion.
This sometimes does happen, but is certainly not a universal truth.
Everyone seems to ignore the fact that if you exclude direct and indirect subsidies, including environmental damage, gas could be as much as $15/gallon.
Or would even remotely work in other locations. They also have a substantially smaller landmass to travel than many other countries.
If we just think about this logically, what other option do you suggest. There’s four real choices here:
Which one of those three other choices is universally better for the people of Norway?
I think if people are going to hold Norway up as a beacon of climate by posting haughty comments about “choking on fumes” then any position other than #2 is logically inconsistent, but as I’m not a Norwegian citizen I’ll not make any more comments about their politics.
Yes, that’s why all the poorest countries have the strictest environmental policies.
Norway is spending a record amount this year developing oil and gas resources to keep output steady through 2035 now. They are also removing environmental regulations in order to build more hydroelectric. Norway is definitely not de-industrializing like the rest of Europe.
Norway’s EV program is not very cost competitive. It took a lot of money given to wealthy people who did not need to buy an additional car for a very modest emission reduction. With a sovereign wealth fund of $1T per 4mm people they can afford more inefficiency than anybody else.
The USA is the largest oil producing country in the world.
We might ask ourselves why the USA doesn’t have a sovereign fund.
Let me stop you right there as you’ve not included the other half of the pertinent information on the subject. Norway divested its Sovereign Fund away from oil in 2019.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/features/norways-sovereign-wealth-fund-divests-from-oil-and-gas/
Away from “new exploration” only.
Billions continue to pour in from ongoing operations:
https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/economy/governments-revenues/
New? No, apparently across the board with this ‘new’ action.
https://deepnewz.com/norway/norway-s-wealth-fund-divests-pemex-paz-oil-revokes-exclusion-on-rwe-ecopetrol-aa62e064
Seems like all the divesting, not investing, is still ongoing.
The link I posted suggests otherwise. Pertinent sentence, immediately at the top:
The government’s total net cash flow from the petroleum industry is estimated to be NOK 698 billion in 2025.
The best drug dealers know to avoid partaking of what they’re selling.
Given that the 5.5 million population is in an area roughly the size of New Mexico, I don’t think they’d be exactly choking. They can do them though.
The environment understander has logged on.
Nah. I just know that cultures are gonna be different. To expect everyone to agree is delusional.
No, it’s a noble goal — but in typical Scandinavian fashion (enabled by low populations, high taxes, and common goals), they just snapped their fingers and made it happen. We could never pull it off…OTOH, it also created a very uneasy, heavy concentration of Teslas specifically, something that’s “socially plaguing” them at the moment.
Grrr, it’s so terrible for a country to want to have clean air and not have its citizens gargling fossil fuel’s balls
Sorry if my parting comment about the one global pro-Tesla anomaly got everyone so upset. It’s not sustainable/scalable, but it’s definitely admirable. As others have mentioned, it did take a lot of oil & gas revenues to get there, and I also don’t love people being essentially forced into a car that doesn’t always make sense for them. But the goal is still noble, as was CARB and the CAA.
I was just shocked to see that the US’s largest car market was dominated by Tesla (and that’s without Norwegian coercion!). Neither good nor bad, just shocking. I see plenty of Teslas every day, but I just can’t imagine them being the most common car on the road. That itself would be…boring. Same colors, same designs…
It’s not, and it’s certainly better than the local environmental policies of Gulf states, where huge fossil fuel-guzzling vehicles are more commonplace than anywhere else, even other oil-pumping and socially repressive places such as Texas. I can’t quite call Norwegians hypocritical, because I have no doubt they get the irony, but would we pat Afghanistan on the back
ofif they funded non-judgmental addiction treatment andhardharm reduction policies with revenue from legalizing heroin production for export?