I will continue to insist that the unseen hand in most automotive transactions is currency. A weak Korean won and a strong U.S. dollar helped build Hyundai and Kia, whereas a weak dollar and a strong deutchmark killed Ford’s greatest product: the Merkur XR4Ti. While tariffs are taking a bite, the relative strength of the dollar over the Japanese yen could work to the advantage of some automakers.
Specifically, I’m talking about Mitsubishi. I haven’t written much about that automaker here in The Morning Dump lately, mostly because there hasn’t been much to write about. Now, with tariff rates down to 15% for Japanese automakers like Mitsubishi, fleet sales are suddenly in the mix again.
Toyota is smart, as I’ve said, and it’s also profitable. I doubt fleets will play a big role in the company’s strategy for the rest of the year, as the company has revised up its profit forecast (from ‘meh’ to ‘not so meh’). BYD is another company that’s smart, albeit new. It’s also starting to replace Tesla in certain markets in Europe.
What won’t replace Tesla is hydrogen, at least according to a recent forecast.
Currency Rules Everything Around Mitsubishi, CREAM
Mitsubishi is now a company that imports 100% of its cars, meaning that it is acutely at risk from trade war shenanigans. The recent lowering of Japanese import tariffs to 15% is maybe not as existential to a company like Toyota, which builds here, doesn’t discount much, and has a lot of higher margin vehicles. It is a big deal to Mitsubishi, and you can sort of suss out where the line is for the automaker from this Automotive News story:
When tariffs were at 27.5 percent, Mitsubishi dialed fleet sales down to zero, executives said.
“With the tariff now at 15 percent and considering the exchange rate situation, we’ll focus on fleet sales and company car sales for vehicles currently in stock that are profitable and meet customer needs,” Nakamura said, adding that talks are underway with rental companies.
“Negotiations are nearly finalized,” Nakamura said. “We expect to increase fleet sales toward the end of the year, which will help recover the volume.”
Fleet sales are usually to rental car companies and government agencies. Company cars these days are gas-monitoring companies, last-mile delivery, et cetera, and not as much traveling salesmen. These are bulk deals and come with bulk discounts, which means lower margins. If there’s a 27.5% tariff, then automakers like Mitsubishi have to sell to private customers at a higher margin to not lose money (or lose as much).
Somewhere between 15% and 27.5% there’s a zone where fleet sales are, if not profitable, more palpable. Given that the company is forecasting an operating profit below $70 million for the year, the margins are still probably as thin as the tires on my BMW.
But there’s another factor here, as the article points out:
Mitsubishi thinks the Japanese yen’s recent slide against the U.S. dollar enables exports to eke a profit, even with the 15 percent tariff rate, Executive Vice President Tatsuo Nakamura said.
CREAM! Mitsubishi builds cars in yen and sells them in sweet, sweet greenbacks. Back in 2020, a dollar bought you about 100 yen. Today, that same dollar buys you about 150 yen. So long as the yen stays down, there’s enough of a spread there to keep Japanese imports profitable enough to bleed inventory to fleets.
So, yeah, if you get a new Outlander at the Enterprise counter, you can bother the people waiting in line by using the word “arbitrage” a bunch of times.
Toyota Expects To Make $19 Billion, Which Ain’t Terrible
It’s purely a cultural thing, but I love that Japanese automakers always use this visual conceit of execs standing at a dais in front of a big screen. The lower angle always makes it look like they’re about to address the Imperial Senate or whatever. The dopey American equivalent may be an exec in Carhartt wearing a high-vis vest, like Paul Jacobson spends his off-time running the punch press at Hamtramck or whatever.
Anyway, Toyota is out with its latest numbers, and the big ticket items are a 900 billion yen ($5.8 billion) tariff hit and an expectation that the company will still make, like, $19 billion this fiscal year (which ends in March 2026). That’s way down from the $31 billion it made last year, but a positive number is probably better than what Nissan is going to do.
BYD Beats Tesla In The UK, Germany Is Not Far Behind
Last year, I filed a TMD from the Goodwood Festival of Speed in Britain, and I was impressed with how well the locals were taking to Chinese electric automaker BYD, which had one of the biggest displays.
[T]he whole BYD stand was full of people every time I walked by it, with potential customers checking out the various real vehicles on display. On one end were the Yangwang luxury cars and the Denza van. On the other side with the BYD Atto 3, BYD Seal plug-in hybrid, and the cute BYD Dolphin.
The nearby Honda stand had a few cars on display as well and did attract some attention, but only about half of the number of people were around Hondas as were around the BYDs when I checked.
I eavesdropped on a few conversations with British consumers checking out the various models and no one seemed to care or even mention the fact that they were Chinese-built/Chinese-owned cars. People were mostly curious about the cost and excited about the features.
That’s why I’m not surprised by this report from Bloomberg, showing that BYD is doing well in both the UK and Germany, and is supplanting BYD in both markets:
BYD Co. is building a lead over Tesla Inc. in the UK and is now neck-and-neck with the Elon Musk-led company in Germany, two of Europe’s biggest markets for plug-in cars.
In the UK, the Chinese manufacturer registered almost seven times more new cars than its American counterpart last month, the country’s automotive trade group said Wednesday. Year-to-date, BYD’s sales have soared more than sixfold, while Tesla’s have slipped 4.5%.
In Germany, BYD registered more than four times as many vehicles as Tesla in October, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority. Through the first 10 months of the year, BYD trails by only 424 cars.
Is BYD gonna do it this year? I think BYD has the juice. Also, the CEO of BYD didn’t piss off something like half the German population.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles To Make Up… 0.22% Of The Global Light Vehicle Segment By 2037
I am totally fine to be wrong about hydrogen cars never being a thing, no matter how hard some automakers try to make it one. More ammo in my belt is the latest forecast from S&P Global Mobility, which is for FCEVs to still only make up a tiny fraction of the total population of cars in 2037:
Compared to BEVs and hybrids, FCEV uptake is expected to be limited throughout the next decade. Even by 2037, FCEVs are expected to make up only 0.22% of the total global light-vehicle market, while BEVs are forecast to account for more than 50%.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts FCEV demand in the light-vehicle segment to increase from 9,211 units in 2025 to 220,000 units in 2037. As of 2025, Japan and Korea dominate the light-vehicle FCEV market, generating 71% of total demand.
This limited adoption is reflected in S&P Global Mobility’s fuel-cell stack demand forecasts from March, June and October 2025, which have notably declined. The June forecast is just 9,341 units, almost 33% less than the March forecast, while the latest October 2025 forecast predicts demand to drop further to 8,079 units—approximately 38% lower than March and 7% lower than June.
Unlike EVs, which you can just plug into a wall, FCEVs require filling stations packed with hydrogen. It turns out, running these is hard, and now most fuel companies don’t seem interested in supporting the tech.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Alanis Morissette sold 33 million copies of her first album, which is something that might never happen again. She can do whatever she wants, so she did a languorous cover of “My Humps” by Black Eyed Peas, and it’s ridiculous, but I love it. The video is also extremely silly. Apparently, Morissette was in a writing funk and thought it would be a fun thing to do to get out of it. Deep respect. I do that sometimes. I’m like “I’ll do a Matt Levine” or a “Dan Neil” or a “Jean Jennings.”
The Big Question
What’s the best rental car you’ve ever gotten? What’s the worst?
Top photo: Mitsubushi/Hertz
Best: Jaguar F-type, but that was through Turo.
Best regular rental place rental was probably a 3.7L V6 Mustang just after the engine refresh.
Worst: Nissan Versa. For years, every time it said “Ford Focus or equivalent” it meant you were getting a Versa, which is equivalent only in size.
Best (in the US): Last gen Chevy Impala and (surprisingly) a 2024 Nissan Sentra.
Worst: Pontiac Aztek.
Best internationally, Peugeot 307 diesel in France and Fiat Croma diesel wagon in Italy. Back in the oughts. Both sticks and I would happily own either one.
Mitsubishi needs to hire a new stylist to make them even remotely attractive. Hyundai/Kia make (mostly) far more attractive vehicles. Particularly their sedans.
I got a <6,000 mile Mitsubishi Outlander Sport last month as a rental. I’ve driven some real heaps in my time, but that was one of the worst driving experiences I’ve had. Cramped with very little room for my size 15 right foot, unrefined, and the front suspension was so harsh that I could see the front end lift when driving over highway expansion joints. So much so that I briefly thought the hood was unlatched.
Here’s hoping for a Malibu for this week’s rental!
Best rental: The Mustang convertible we rented in Honolulu for an overnight trip from the Big Island in 2021. Was expecting a Camaro, got the Mustang and noticed the trunk badge said “GT”. So we had a 400+HP convertible…for all of one night / morning.
Worst: The UHaul 26′ truck i got last month to haul my son’s HS band equipment to a contest 90 minutes away. Had a death wobble at 35-40 mph.
I wrote my note above forgetting about U-Haul vans. I’ve driven one, twice, pulling a car from WA to TX and back. I was impressed with its competence towing, but neither trip was what I would call fun. Cruise control would help a lot. Dealing with the gas pedal for 14 + hours a day is tiring. And going up over the various mountain ranges along the way made me sad for the engine, but no breakdowns, so I guess they’re tough? The ones I rented felt relatively stable. No death wobble. They are loud though. I rented a Budget van based on a Chevy platform and it was a bit nicer.
Best rental car was a 2002(?) Mitsubishi Montero Sport that I drove around Death Valley in. It was awesome in those dirt trails and it had a manually selectable center diff lock.
Best rental non-car, though, was the 3 wheeler ATVs we rented in San Felipe Mexico back in the 90’s. That whole town was wild. You could ride ATV’s all over town and all up and down the beach and nobody cared.
Best: 2023 Toyota Rav4 Hybrid, Limited trim. Great vehicle for just getting around in comfort with great gas mileage. No notes.
Worst: 2007 Dodge Caliber SE with the CVT. Plastic fantastic penalty box with a droning 4 cyl begging for it’s end. Can’t believe it was approved by Daimler.
Best was a fully loaded Audi Q5 with every bell and whistle. Worse was the same car.
I had a one week rental. First few days was a blast thrashing it around as you’re supposed to do with a rental. Three days into the rental, after bragging about how much fun it was every gizmo and gadget started to crap out. Dash lit up like a Christmas tree full of faults. Limped to a rental location and swapped it for a challenger to complete the hooning.
Should have expected it as it was German and way over engineered.
Best was 2020 at an Enterprise at BDL. Free upgrade from Sub-compact that I reserved and which they had none of (it was a very Seinfeldian conversation at the counter), into an Expedition Platinum.
Worst was in 2007, it was a Dodge Caliber. Caliber was free though as the VW dealer was out of loaners so I got sent to Enterprise. So at least I didn’t pay for the unpleasantness of driving the worst car I’ve ever driven.
Best rental was a VW Atlas. I was traveling to Chicago pretty regularly for work and while it was far more room than I needed, it was a real treat.
I think the worst was probably a newer Volvo hybrid crossover. I don’t even remember the model, it was that bad. Poor visibility, anemic performance, atmospherically tall console, just turned me off to the whole modern iteration of Volvo. A far cry from my 1998 S70 which, while very heavy and not without electrical gremlins, was a comfortable, capable vehicle.
I also had a Jeep Gladiator once which was very cool, but let me know quickly that I am not a Jeep person.
With the avg age of the on-road fleet >25 years old any rental seems pretty nice. I guess the worst was a 2005 Sebring that we rented for all of 5 minutes before returning because the visibility was so awful and we were in a picturesque place. Replaced with a Kia Rio, that’s how bad…
Best: Jeep Wrangler – because a Wrangler as a rental is just cool.
Worst: Probably the Renault Kwid I recently rented. It’s a basic car, and nothing more.
Best rental car was a Holden Commodore SV6, but honorable mentions go to the Hyundai i30 and BYD Atto 3.
Worst was hands down a Mitsubishi eclipse cross, everything about that car was horrible
Best rental: mid-2010s Skoda Octavia diesel 6-speed.
Worst: The Dodge Calibers I tended to get stuck with from 2009-2011, because I needed the cheapest rental on the lot.
Mitsubishi still sells cars in the US?!? I’ll be damned.
Worst Rental: Black 6-cyl 2006-ish dodge charger. It was Arizona in the summer, so it was miserably black and miserably slow (for the looks).
Best: Paid for a compact SUV, but they were out. I asked them if I could get the Maserati as a consolation prize and they said OK. It was a Grecale. It drove just OK for the price, but still more fun than a Nissan or Hyundai. Plus it looked and sounded cool!
DOWN to 15% when for decades car tariffs were 2.5%. Given some of the questioning from the conservative wing of the Supreme Court today, I am vaguely hopeful that this nonsense goes away.
As for Mitsubishi. One wing of my family has owned a bunch of Outlanders of various kinds and been perfectly happy with them for many, many years. My aunt bought one, loved it, so all the cousins started buying them too, and kept buying them. If you need a decent generic car, they seem to be one without the Toyota Tax or the Nissan\Korean stigma. Mostly, nobody knows what they are. They should probably come in white with barcodes for badges. Friend of mine who was a redblock then whiteblock Volvo guy had a change of circumstance (lost house, garage, tools, and cars to a divorce) and needed something cheap and cheerful, he bought one recently and really likes it too.
Best rentals? Anything interesting, and I have a dirty secret love of Hemi Chrysler products. Not something I would likely ever own, but a week in a Hemi Challenger with someone else paying for the gas? Oh hell yes!
Worst rentals? Anything with a Nissan badge for the past 20 years. Before that, the cheap GM cars like the Olds Achieva, Grand Am or god-forbid Crapalier/Sunturd. Especially back in the day when GM owned Avis, and Avis was a dumping ground for crap they couldn’t sell to real buyers. How “rental spec” got to be a thing.
I’d go out of my way to rent the original Neons, and the post facelift first generation Fusions were great too.
Worst: Tie between Kia Sephia and Saturn Ion.
Ex-New Yorker.
Edit: How on earth could I have forgotten the Alfa Romeo we drove all around Elba for a day back in 1985!
You know, I got a next to best trim 2025 Outlander for my work wheels, and it’s not the penalty box I thought it would be. It’s not as plush as my personal Highlander platinum, but it’s also twenty grand cheaper. Has all the convenience features, seriously decent on fuel. Fifty extra horsepower wouldn’t hurt, but I almost never need that much either.
I test drove a 2018(?) Outlander PHEV and I thought everything was decent. The driver’s seat was comfortable. The big letdown was that the rear seats were really flat, unsupportive and stiff.
Best Rental: Chrysler pacifica. Comfortable, fast, roomy.
Worst: Toyota corolla. A new toyota corolla is how you spell disappointing shitbox. I had a 2012 corolla and it was better than the new one in just about every way.
Other than cockroach reliability, IMHO Corollas have been disappointing shitboxes since the turn of the century. Each generation cheaper feeling than the last.
Maybe that spaceship that is supposedly the next gen will change that, but I doubt it.
Best Rental? Any one of many that was reasonably comfortable, didn’t smell of old cigarettes or vomit, and got me to my destination and back without any drama. Worst? Far in my past, a PT Cruiser and Plymouth Sundance are duking it out for the honors. Most interesting? Probably a Skoda Roomster rented at the York UK train station some years ago. I think the ugliest car I’ve ever driven, but despite its gnome-like looks, it was roomy, decent to drive and the perfect size for touring NE England and Scotland.
Worst and best in a single trip? This summer I rented a Citroen C3 Aircross in Bilbao for a road trip across northern Spain and SW France. It was possessed. The side mirrors wouldn’t park when you shut it off, then they parked and wouldn’t unpark. Then they worked normally, or not, at random. The touchscreen periodically died, then would work fine when you restarted the car. Nine days in on a back road 30 km from Carcassone (in a 40 C heatwave) it suddenly overheated and went into catastrophic meltdown, for no visible or apparent reason. It took Europcar a full day to find a replacement – a brand new MG HS SUV. The first Chinese car I’ve driven, and probably a two level upgrade from the Citroen from Hell. Finished the trip just fine, and one of the nicer rental cars I’ve ever had.