I will continue to insist that the unseen hand in most automotive transactions is currency. A weak Korean won and a strong U.S. dollar helped build Hyundai and Kia, whereas a weak dollar and a strong deutchmark killed Ford’s greatest product: the Merkur XR4Ti. While tariffs are taking a bite, the relative strength of the dollar over the Japanese yen could work to the advantage of some automakers.
Specifically, I’m talking about Mitsubishi. I haven’t written much about that automaker here in The Morning Dump lately, mostly because there hasn’t been much to write about. Now, with tariff rates down to 15% for Japanese automakers like Mitsubishi, fleet sales are suddenly in the mix again.
Toyota is smart, as I’ve said, and it’s also profitable. I doubt fleets will play a big role in the company’s strategy for the rest of the year, as the company has revised up its profit forecast (from ‘meh’ to ‘not so meh’). BYD is another company that’s smart, albeit new. It’s also starting to replace Tesla in certain markets in Europe.
What won’t replace Tesla is hydrogen, at least according to a recent forecast.
Currency Rules Everything Around Mitsubishi, CREAM
Mitsubishi is now a company that imports 100% of its cars, meaning that it is acutely at risk from trade war shenanigans. The recent lowering of Japanese import tariffs to 15% is maybe not as existential to a company like Toyota, which builds here, doesn’t discount much, and has a lot of higher margin vehicles. It is a big deal to Mitsubishi, and you can sort of suss out where the line is for the automaker from this Automotive News story:
When tariffs were at 27.5 percent, Mitsubishi dialed fleet sales down to zero, executives said.
“With the tariff now at 15 percent and considering the exchange rate situation, we’ll focus on fleet sales and company car sales for vehicles currently in stock that are profitable and meet customer needs,” Nakamura said, adding that talks are underway with rental companies.
“Negotiations are nearly finalized,” Nakamura said. “We expect to increase fleet sales toward the end of the year, which will help recover the volume.”
Fleet sales are usually to rental car companies and government agencies. Company cars these days are gas-monitoring companies, last-mile delivery, et cetera, and not as much traveling salesmen. These are bulk deals and come with bulk discounts, which means lower margins. If there’s a 27.5% tariff, then automakers like Mitsubishi have to sell to private customers at a higher margin to not lose money (or lose as much).
Somewhere between 15% and 27.5% there’s a zone where fleet sales are, if not profitable, more palpable. Given that the company is forecasting an operating profit below $70 million for the year, the margins are still probably as thin as the tires on my BMW.
But there’s another factor here, as the article points out:
Mitsubishi thinks the Japanese yen’s recent slide against the U.S. dollar enables exports to eke a profit, even with the 15 percent tariff rate, Executive Vice President Tatsuo Nakamura said.
CREAM! Mitsubishi builds cars in yen and sells them in sweet, sweet greenbacks. Back in 2020, a dollar bought you about 100 yen. Today, that same dollar buys you about 150 yen. So long as the yen stays down, there’s enough of a spread there to keep Japanese imports profitable enough to bleed inventory to fleets.
So, yeah, if you get a new Outlander at the Enterprise counter, you can bother the people waiting in line by using the word “arbitrage” a bunch of times.
Toyota Expects To Make $19 Billion, Which Ain’t Terrible
It’s purely a cultural thing, but I love that Japanese automakers always use this visual conceit of execs standing at a dais in front of a big screen. The lower angle always makes it look like they’re about to address the Imperial Senate or whatever. The dopey American equivalent may be an exec in Carhartt wearing a high-vis vest, like Paul Jacobson spends his off-time running the punch press at Hamtramck or whatever.
Anyway, Toyota is out with its latest numbers, and the big ticket items are a 900 billion yen ($5.8 billion) tariff hit and an expectation that the company will still make, like, $19 billion this fiscal year (which ends in March 2026). That’s way down from the $31 billion it made last year, but a positive number is probably better than what Nissan is going to do.
BYD Beats Tesla In The UK, Germany Is Not Far Behind
Last year, I filed a TMD from the Goodwood Festival of Speed in Britain, and I was impressed with how well the locals were taking to Chinese electric automaker BYD, which had one of the biggest displays.
[T]he whole BYD stand was full of people every time I walked by it, with potential customers checking out the various real vehicles on display. On one end were the Yangwang luxury cars and the Denza van. On the other side with the BYD Atto 3, BYD Seal plug-in hybrid, and the cute BYD Dolphin.
The nearby Honda stand had a few cars on display as well and did attract some attention, but only about half of the number of people were around Hondas as were around the BYDs when I checked.
I eavesdropped on a few conversations with British consumers checking out the various models and no one seemed to care or even mention the fact that they were Chinese-built/Chinese-owned cars. People were mostly curious about the cost and excited about the features.
That’s why I’m not surprised by this report from Bloomberg, showing that BYD is doing well in both the UK and Germany, and is supplanting BYD in both markets:
BYD Co. is building a lead over Tesla Inc. in the UK and is now neck-and-neck with the Elon Musk-led company in Germany, two of Europe’s biggest markets for plug-in cars.
In the UK, the Chinese manufacturer registered almost seven times more new cars than its American counterpart last month, the country’s automotive trade group said Wednesday. Year-to-date, BYD’s sales have soared more than sixfold, while Tesla’s have slipped 4.5%.
In Germany, BYD registered more than four times as many vehicles as Tesla in October, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority. Through the first 10 months of the year, BYD trails by only 424 cars.
Is BYD gonna do it this year? I think BYD has the juice. Also, the CEO of BYD didn’t piss off something like half the German population.
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles To Make Up… 0.22% Of The Global Light Vehicle Segment By 2037
I am totally fine to be wrong about hydrogen cars never being a thing, no matter how hard some automakers try to make it one. More ammo in my belt is the latest forecast from S&P Global Mobility, which is for FCEVs to still only make up a tiny fraction of the total population of cars in 2037:
Compared to BEVs and hybrids, FCEV uptake is expected to be limited throughout the next decade. Even by 2037, FCEVs are expected to make up only 0.22% of the total global light-vehicle market, while BEVs are forecast to account for more than 50%.
S&P Global Mobility forecasts FCEV demand in the light-vehicle segment to increase from 9,211 units in 2025 to 220,000 units in 2037. As of 2025, Japan and Korea dominate the light-vehicle FCEV market, generating 71% of total demand.
This limited adoption is reflected in S&P Global Mobility’s fuel-cell stack demand forecasts from March, June and October 2025, which have notably declined. The June forecast is just 9,341 units, almost 33% less than the March forecast, while the latest October 2025 forecast predicts demand to drop further to 8,079 units—approximately 38% lower than March and 7% lower than June.
Unlike EVs, which you can just plug into a wall, FCEVs require filling stations packed with hydrogen. It turns out, running these is hard, and now most fuel companies don’t seem interested in supporting the tech.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Alanis Morissette sold 33 million copies of her first album, which is something that might never happen again. She can do whatever she wants, so she did a languorous cover of “My Humps” by Black Eyed Peas, and it’s ridiculous, but I love it. The video is also extremely silly. Apparently, Morissette was in a writing funk and thought it would be a fun thing to do to get out of it. Deep respect. I do that sometimes. I’m like “I’ll do a Matt Levine” or a “Dan Neil” or a “Jean Jennings.”
The Big Question
What’s the best rental car you’ve ever gotten? What’s the worst?
Top photo: Mitsubushi/Hertz
I can’t figure why some companies (and people) are so fixated on trying to make hydrogen work in production vehicles.
Yeah, it’s got great energy density and is very clean (until you consider what’s powering its production; hopefully solar or wind), but it’s just so damn hard to handle and store. Until we can figure that out, it’s pretty much a non-starter.
Best rental: a yellow Mustang convertible that I ended up driving in my grandmother’s funeral procession. I was gently mocked because I didn’t put the top down during it, but I felt that might have been disrespectful.
Worst: a Kia Sephia. Remember those? It was nearly new and felt 20 years old. It was bad, even for a rental. Every surface in it felt like Kia’s number one question at the time was “Can we do it cheaper?”
Best friend bought a 2000 year model new.
Jesus, talk about a penalty box.
But it was the only thing he could afford.
He drove that pos for 20 years without any real issues despite delayed, or ignored need for oil changes, tires, etc.
It was a literal cock roach.
So, if Mitsubishi is selling exclusively to rental companies, does that mean they’ll have the fastest line of vehicles…in the world?
Best Rental – Ford Mustang convertible
Worst Rental – Tie between a CVT 2011 Nissan Sentra and a 2006 Impalla with a worn front suspension
I travel from NZ to the UK every year to visit family and play rental car roulette every time. Worst car was a Citoen C3 which was utterly miserable in every respect. Gutless, noisy, uncomfortable and shook like a tent in a cyclone at motorway speeds. Best was a Cupra Leon I had earlier this year, by a narrow margin over Mini Cooper about 10 years ago. The Cupra was a joy. Zippy, chuckable round twisty West Country roads, a great 6 speed manual gearbox, and very comfortable. I felt genuinely sad giving it back and now I’m seriously thinking about buying one.
Best rental – Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid
Worst rental – Nissan Rogue
Best rental: Pontiac Grand Prix. Stick with me:
I was given the choice of three mid-size sedans, and since I was driving a Taurus at the time, that was out, and I went with the GP. As I’m walking through the rental garage, I had to go down a row filled! with the newest/last gen Mitsubishi Eclipse, all convertibles since I was at FLL. I figured I was going to see how much extra it would have been to get one of those, but I was close enough to my car I would plop the bags in the trunk first.
Then I saw the front fender “vent”, and noticed the trim badge: GXP.
It was only two days, but having the performance version of that car was fun as hell for a young dude on vacation!
Worst: Overall I’ve been lucky enough to have decent rental experiences. If I had to nominate a worst, it would be the Jetta (c. 2013) I got while I had my car in the shop. It was a de-contented black hole of an interior, with a lethargic engine and a tire I had to keep putting air into every other day in February.
I almost mentioned a string of work trips to PA I had in 2016 where on the 3rd visit, I received a same-era Jetta but right after they had put the 1.8T in it. That was a pleasant surprise and an improvement over the Focus (PowerShift was better but still Not Good) and Elantra (no tilt wheel?) I had the prior trips. Especially as I had been asked to drive from wherever I was in PA to BWI to fly home as it was cheaper that way. The VW was also black-on-black but no gloomier than the weather I had on the drive, IIRC it was first week of March and there were light flurries.
One time in Florida I lucked out when they didn’t have the convertible I had ordered – so instead they gave me the big Cadillac sedan (maybe an STS??), which turned out great because I ended up driving like 1,000 miles because of changing travel plans that had me driving across the state twice – and it was Hot ????, so we would not have wanted to have the roof down.
Nice to hear what an actual singer can do to a poorly-written song.
Still looking for the cooler, though.
Black-Eyed Peas seem particularly prone to this phenomenon (Jeff Tweedy of Wilco absolutely ripping on I Gotta Feeling).
I recently had a Grand Cherokee L as a rental this summer. I drove it from New Mexico to Wisconsin and it absolutely kicked ass. I’ve owned and liked Grand Cherokees (a couple of WJs), but I didn’t expect to love this new weird long one so much. I’ve been surprised and delighted to be handed the keys to Chargers and Challengers, a Wrangler 4XE, and a Nissan Titan instead of the economy car I reserved, but that Grand Cherokee stuck with me for whatever reason. The worst I’ve had are the many, many, Malibus and Altimas that have been foisted upon me over the years.
Nothing really good or bad just some stories this year:
February: flew a different flight from my family to go to a funeral in NY and offered to rent the car. Took a chance on the mystery option as it guaranteed room for 4 and I think 4 doors. Get to the counter: do you want the Pacifica or Tacoma? Given it was snowing and we had luggage I was relieved to pick the van.
Last month flew out for a wedding, several hour departing flight delay meant my initial rental window was missed. They guaranteed a car but I got anxious because the app switched to showing an Express van. Not something the small group of us needed for an hour+ drive each way, although it would have been a great bit. In the end I did get what I reserved – a newer Acadia, which I found I didn’t care for but was fine for the job.
August: 3 of us flew to New England for a bachelor party ahead of said wedding where we didn’t really know the guys beyond the groom. Buddy handled the rental, requesting “Maxima or similar” class, usually preferring to rent something nicer as a little treat but not wanting to have a showy badge this time. Attendant says “you can pick from the A3, CLA, or a 3-Series.” I piped up 3-Series as it would have the most room for the 2+ hour trip to the cabin. It was funny getting unprompted “Whoa that’s a nice car” comments from others met with a quick “it’s a rental!!” defense.
The past two years I’ve been in Ft Worth for work. Each time I got an Audi (A6/A5) because once it was the cheapest option, the other it was $3 more than “standard”.
After all the crap I took about “how nice it is to be corporate”, I’ll never do it again on work trips! lol Just isn’t worth the hassle.
Same guy flew separate from some of us for the wedding and he did seek out a nice rental again – he got a 5-Series. But at least for that it would get tucked away in the parking lots, and pretty much everyone had come in from out of town so it was a mix of all different cars. Whereas the bachelor trip was closer to home for most of the other attendees who drove mostly Hondas, lol.
Best: Genesis Electric GV70. another time, I was supposed to get a Macan, but the flight got cancelled so didn’t need the rental. Also a Sierra for a 2k mile road trip was very nice. oh and the Volvo S60 was great, just wished it was the plug-in version.
Worst: 2025 Prius. maybe it was the rental spec, but it was slow, uncomfortable, and too many nanny warnings. Also Malibus are the worst – big, bulky and slow.
We went on a family vacation to Maui back in 1988, and our rental was a Chevrolet Celebrity wagon. I love me an A-body, but this thing was pretty tired when we got it. Dad and I took it halfway down the Road to Hana at my behest, on the way back it had a rod knock bad enough that we took it back to the rental office immediately for a replacement.
Family trip to Maui in 2018 and driving back to civilization on the Road to (from?) Hana was quite memorable in a loaded V6 Altima. The sun was setting, the tour buses had already left home, and NO ONE was heading towards me, so it was me and another car racing back along the unbelievable amount of curves (and my wife and kids were basically passed out from a long day of sightseeing).
I was definitely channeling some Big Altima Energy on that drive back to Lahaina!
Best rental car I ever had AFAICR was probably a Fox body Mustang SVO with a manual transmission in Atlanta a zillion years ago. The worst? I can’t recall honestly… I’ve had quite a few, but none in the past 20 years, so memories are fuzzy. I’m sure that I had some Chrysler 200ish or Sebringish rentals, so probably something like that: heavy-feeling, slow, rattly, with tons of low-quality silver-painted plastic in the interior.
What would have to happen for Chinese cars to suddenly be viable to be sold in the U.S., and will that happen in our lifetime do you think? Not saying I’d run out to buy one, but it sure would be nice to have the option, even if long-term support wasn’t quite a sure thing.
Edited to add: not technically my rental, but once, when I was a kid, my folks rented an AMC Pacer from a Rent-A-Wreck location in New York, and it was insanely bad, even to the sensibilities of a kid just sitting in the back. Profoundly horrible, even as basic transportation.
Huh, I didn’t recognize Alanis without heavenly translucence and a tuque.
PS To anyone planning a down-tempo version of a rap song: feel free to cut a couple of verses.
The joke started to wear a bit thin at about 2:30.
Worst rental has got to be a Uhaul with a bad seal directly above the driver’s head while driving 16 hours in the rain. If you tilt your head to either side now you’ve got water dripping into your ear. Best rental was when I showed up to Hertz at 3am after flight delays and they were very apologetic that the only car they had left was a Miata with a manual instead of whatever cheap economy car I reserved.
ANY Miata would be an excellent surprise as a rental provided you didn’t have to carry more than one passenger around. Plus, as a rental, it was probably pretty new/low mile, which would make a lovely change of pace from all the multi-decade old Miatas I’ve owned/driven. 🙂
I never thought I’d see a new MX-5 at a rental lot, but there one was at National as part of their “specialty” collection. And I kid you not, it was parked next to a Lotus and a F-150 Raptor so they aren’t playing around.
Best Rental: Probably a tie between an F150 King Ranch (circa 2019) or a 2025 Genesis GV70.
Worst Rental (BY A MARGIN!): 2024 (?) Mitsubishi Mirage.
I used to rent a LOT more than I do now for work. Usually whatever Enterprise had available. I’d book a compact and usually get bumped up. Most FUN was a Camaro SS in the snow in Omaha. Most ENTERTAINING was a Jaguar F-PACE. It talked to me with a woman’s voice in a British accent. I think I fell in love on that drive. Had my share of Hemi powered Dodge/Chryslers too. Those were always a treat.
Worst, Hyundai Accents. I bitched so much they put a note in my file to never give me another one!
Alanis Morissette sold 33 million copies of her first U.S. album. She released two dance-pop albums in Canada before Jagged Little Pill.
Under the name Robin Sparkles, right?
Good one.
I especially liked “Two Beavers are better than One.”
Best rental was a C300e in France that I plugged in nightly at the hotel and occasionally at other destinations when chargers where available and drove 90% of the time there in electric. Worst rental was a Chevy Caviler.
Best rental: Cadillac ATS RWD in February in Michigan lol
Worse rental: Jeep Compass…
I remember traveling to Oshkosh in a rented Accord when I was a kid. That’s the last rental I can remember having – someone in the family has always had a spare car to borrow for years, and I’ve never rented myself. Best borrowed car was probably Mom’s VW Cabrio. Worst was brothers Olds Bravada, though that wasn’t exactly bad.
Best is such a loaded term. I have rented so many cars over the years. I have rented everything from giant pig shaped Durangos to Nissan pick up trucks to Kia sedans. I think the worst was the PT Crusier and the best was the Opal Corsa because that was a manual transmission, I am still mad because I reserved a 500 abarth and got a damn 4 door Corsa instead.
I will not react when well Hertz tries to charge me $2000 for bird droppings on the roof of a Mitsubishi.
Weird that they would total the vehicle out just due to bird droppings
If fleet sales can get the word out on how good the Outlander is then so be it. 86% Japanese content is a huge plus on these and everyone knows that a “J” VIN trumps anything else.
Now to replace the elderly Outlander Sport and even the dated interior Eclipse Cross…
Speaking of writing funks:
“That’s why I’m not surprised by this report from Bloomberg, showing that BYD is doing well in both the UK and Germany, and is supplanting BYD in both markets:”
Best rental is a V6 mustang when they switched to the 300hp V6.
Worst is probably the Yaris with the slow leak that required me to buy a 12v compressor to top the car up a few times a day to keep the trip on schedule.
A leaky tire isn’t really the car’s fault of course. I kind of like old Yarii, but I still respect the opinions of those who don’t.
Oh yea this was the Yaris that was actually a Mazda 2 and I friggin loved it. Really struggled to think of a car I loathed. I just genuinely enjoy driving itself and the car is secondary as long as it’s not actively fighting me.
It’s the Scion iA/Toyota Yaris aka Yaris iA that’s a Mazda 2, right? The Yaris before that were full Toyota designed/built cars I think?
I’ve been longing for the 2020 Yaris hatchback (aka Mazda 2 w/an uglier Toyota nose) but they sell used for almost as much as they cost new in 2020, which was $16-17K at the time. Most used ones are just a couple grand less (some w/ample miles on them) and I’ve even seen a few asking MORE than original MSRP! That’s for a five-year-old economy car! I will never get used to the post-pandemic car market I think.
You can actually score a Mazda CX-30 in the high teens. So, maybe $4K more than what you’ll pay for the average 2020 Yaris hatchback (the hatchacks are rare, only being sold here for that one year). $4K ain’t nothing, but the CX-30 is light years more refined than the Yaris. Don’t get me wrong, I like and want the Yaris hatch, but given what it is, I couldn’t envision paying much more than about $12K max for one, which isn’t really possible. A CX-30 in the high teens just seems like a smarter purchase if you’re looking for a small urban hatch with a bit of charm.
IMO anyway.
PS: I’m showing my ’89 Volvo 240 wagon with the Autopian GTG at the Galpin car show this weekend, and I’ll probably list my other Volvo (’04 XC90) and motorcycle (’18 Suzuki Vanvan 200) for sale in the 240s windshield. On the remote chance I sell either of them, I’ll be much more likely to start shopping for a CX-30 seriously, while keeping an eye open for the rare 2020 Yaris hatch too. 😉