Tesla’s lineup is about to get smaller. On Wednesday evening, CNBC reported that during the automaker’s fourth-quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said, “It’s time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge,” adding, “If you’re interested in buying a Model S and X, now would be the time to order it.” What’s going to replace these cars? Allegedly, something that isn’t a car.
Musk said on the call that Tesla is replacing its production line for S and X in Fremont “with a 1 million unit per year line of Optimus.”
This is a situation where two things can be true at the same time: Building a million humanoid robots per year sounds insane, but it’s also time for the Model S to go. Beyond time, if we’re being honest. For perspective, the Model S has been Botox’d through a production run nearly as long as that of the C3 Chevrolet Corvette, and we all know how that ended.
Let’s go back in time for a second. When it launched in 2012, the Tesla Model S was nothing short of a landmark car. It wasn’t the first modern EV, or the first Tesla, but it showed that electric cars could be quick and desirable. While 416 horsepower and 443 lb.-ft. of torque from the Signature Performance model may seem quaint by today’s standards, it was enough to keep up with the BMW M5 and Mercedes-Benz E 63 AMG of its era without using a drop of fuel. At the same time, 265 miles of range was a game-changer compared to the piddly 73 miles offered by an early Nissan Leaf, and Tesla’s own streamlined charging network was a good enough idea that pretty much every other automaker has since made deals to use it. At the same time, the Model S earned namedrops and star power, and marked a turning point for the Silicon Valley nouveau-riche. Less GNU and Priuses, more following in the hedonistic footsteps of their yuppie spiritual forefathers.
Like how Instagram went from a way to share photos with your friends to a destroyer of attention spans, the Model S didn’t just stagnate after release. Dual-motor all-wheel-drive joined the party in 2014, unlocking a whole new way to make your passengers sick. The subsequent P90D model dropped the zero-to-60 mph time below three seconds, the P100D served up a ten-second quarter-mile time, and then there’s the Plaid. You know, a roughly 4,800-pound sedan that could run a nine-second quarter-mile out of the box. Range eventually grew to more than 400 miles, while a raft of updates introduced new styling, revised interiors, and media control units with eMMC that didn’t catastrophically fail well within the car’s natural lifespan.
Now, that’s certainly not to say that everything the Model S introduced into the car industry was positive. It really started the trend of ditching buttons for giant screens, the much-hyped Autopilot advanced driver assistance system kicked off a string of questionable claims regarding robotaxi timelines, and there have been some accusations of it being a vehicle for tax credit shenanigans regarding promises of battery swapping, as per the Los Angeles Times. It’s also worth noting that the motorized door handles still suck if you live in a place that gets actual winter weather. Still, the Model S changed cars forever. Then time did its thing.
Believe it or not, 2012 was a long, long time ago. A year when teenagers thought they could stop Ugandan warlord Joseph Kony by using hashtags, when the first “Avengers” film dropped, when Mayan calendar conspiracy theories took over the internet, and when Lena Dunham’s Girls was one of the hottest new shows on television. Come to think of it, 2012 was just three years after Kanye West and Kid Rock performed at President Obama’s Youth Inauguration Ball, if you really want a severe case of cultural whiplash. Fourteen years is an epoch in human years. In car years, it’s practically forever and a day.
You usually see an automaker replace models after five or seven years on the market, partly to freshen up showroom appeal and partly because it’s sometimes simply time to move on from an old design, an old platform, and the inherent datedness of it. The Model S saw nearly double that lifespan, and even with thorough updates, it paid the price. Admittedly, it’s been a little while since I last drove a Model S, but compared to a Lucid Air or a Porsche Taycan, it just felt a bit imprecise and aged. I’m not the only one to come away with an impression of tiredness, as Car And Driver found when it tested a 2026 Model S Plaid in October:
It prowls the roads with the same innocuous competence as before, and yet it still feels a tad less connected than other cars that have this kind of potential. Up the pace, and the steering feel doesn’t really give you confidence. The ride is decent, but it lacks a certain fluidity and composure over a variety of surfaces to make it stand out. It is, in a word, fine.
Some of this relative age can also be backed up with data. At a 70 MPH cruise, Car And Driver measured cabin loudness at 68 dB or 23 sones, exactly the same result as a new Nissan Leaf. The Model S is no longer whisper-quiet; its auditory refinement is now on par with one of the least expensive EVs you can buy. On the one hand, oh how the mighty fall. On the other, how’s that for progress?
If you’ve been watching closely, you probably already know that the Model S has faced a slow demise. Tesla discontinued production of right-hand-drive models in 2023, then stopped offering the car in Europe altogether last year. The writing seemed like it was on the wall, and that’s before we even get into the sales figures at home.
Tesla doesn’t separate Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck sales data in its reports, but the analysts at Cox Automotive routinely crunch registration data and have been able to separate things model by model. The latest report found that 5,889 new Model S sedans found homes across America in 2025. Not only does that represent a 52.6 percent year-over-year decline, but Lucid sold 83.6 percent more Air sedans than that over the same period of time. Crazier still, the Model S was outsold by the Volkswagen ID.Buzz in 2025, and that thing hasn’t exactly been flying out of showrooms. The big sedan made up less than one percent of Tesla sales last year. It may as well have been a rounding error. This is a far cry from the 32,675 Model S sedans sold in 2022, and while a then-recent refresh may have helped buoy sales that year, the effect simply didn’t last.
There’s a certain poetic tragedy in how the Tesla Model S was the first electric car with mass appeal, yet stayed on the market for so long that it pretty much lost it. Add in the fact that the related Model X only sold 13,066 units in 2025 (a year-over-year decline of 16 percent), and it becomes difficult to justify holding space for aging, low-volume cars with a high number of unique components. Not even for the Model S/Model X/Model 3/Model Y reading as “S3XY (sexy)” bit that’s as stale as month-old sourdough.
So, what does this mean for Tesla? Well, the apparent lack of even an indirect mainstream replacement for the Model S isn’t looking so great. The Cybertruck may be Tesla’s new halo product, but let’s just say that its appeal is limited. At the same time, having no direct replacement for the Model X means competitors can just walk in the front door of the large three-row EV frat house like they own the place. It’s certainly unusual for an industry leader to seemingly wave the white flag in two major segments, but that appears to be how things are going. With Tesla announcing its first annual revenue decline, fresh product would go a long way towards sustainability, and Optimus feels like a huge gamble. Either way, if this announcement is to be believed, Rest in Peace Tesla Model S. You were once groundbreaking, but now it’s more than time to send you to a wind farm upstate.
Top graphic images: Tesla; DepositPhotos.com
Living and working in Silicon Valley you do get to meet and know folks who have been at Tesla or around Elon’s orbit.
The general consensus is that they are the most f***ing dysfunctional hellholes you could find yourself working at and the guy at the top is an absolute, complete moron. All the hard working, competent, passionate people who built the company ran away years ago or were dumped unceremoniously after getting burnt out to a stump. You can find them at the other car companies or, if they cashed out enough and got burnt out enough, you can’t find them because they got themselves a cabin deep in the woods and don’t want visitors.
It’ll probably still take a bit, up until the next proper financial crash, but Tesla will make true the adage of going bankrupt slowly and then all at once.
For years, I was really excited to get a Tesla at some point.
Couldn’t care less now.
Looking forward to the products that the competition brings out.
And I still give credit to Tesla for creating that competitive marketplace.
That was really something.
Largely thanks to Model S.
They should make a robot that turns into a cybertruck, and call it the Optimus Prime.
I think the Model S is a good looking car. The other Tesla models, not so much.
If reality applied, tesla would have sold the car part of the business to another car company years ago. The ridiculously over valued stock keeps this kind of stupidity moving along because everyone invested is stuck now needing the stock to always go up. It’s the basis for their whole wealth, and for many (mainly musk) its leveraged to pay for other nonsense.
It has to crash as some point, and it will probably take down twitter and several other BS “investments” with it. Car factories and battery factories will still have value, but at the level of real value not stock market nonsense. So maybe we one day see a Ford with a tesla motor sold as a parts manufacturer rather than a while car company. Maybe they just make charging infrastructure, or only batteries.
They will make up for losing half of their real-world lineup with sales at the Tesla Diner, duh!
I am so very confused by Tesla. I understand the S and X weren’t big sellers, but it seems odd to trim the lineup down to mildly updated versions of the 3 and Y (that are nearly indistinguishable at first glance from the old ones) and the Cyberflop.
I don’t know what Elon thinks the future of this company is going to be if it refuses to release new and appealing products. I get that Elon doesn’t want to be the CEO of a successful car company for some inexplicable reason, but even in that context his product planning is puzzling. I have a hard time believing a company that built nice products like the 3, Y, and S can’t come up with a new product that has mainstream appeal. If Elon wants to build niche or speculative products like the Cybercab, it seems like expanding the lineup of profitable mainstream vehicles would help fund these efforts. Over the last few years it feels like Elon has been intentionally tanking Tesla as a company – I don’t know why the board of directors has gone along with this.
I am still confused as to why people keep buying Tesla stock – TSLA seems like even more of a ridiculous meme stock that Gamestop ever was.
The people buying tesla stock are the people owning tesla stock. They can’t have the basement fall out because they use the stock “value” to borrow money to fund other things. Elon doesn’t get paid, he lives of loans that are based on stock value. If the stock manipulation stops, more people will be coming for their money than there is real value in tesla so a substantial dip in value that sticks, and the whole house of cards falls in. The tesla board is in the same position, so they just do as they are told by they con man up front.
Even more so, anyone with a pretty normal retirement account or investment portfolio inherently has Tesla stock. Almost every single asset mix used has a very heavy Fortune 500 mix and an even more significant percentage of the Mag 7, of which Tesla is a part of. There is a handful of whales and institutions that have helped to inflate the value, and by extensions stuck a very large number of average people stuck unknowingly holding part of that bag.
Somebody read “Build Borrow Die” and has now attempted to project it onto Tesla’s owners.
I don’t own any Tesla stock (except in my ETF’s), and have no brief on Elon Musk, but half of Tesla is owned by institutional investors, 12% by insiders, and the remainder (38%) owned by non-institutional investors (which can mean individuals at retail, ESPP in escrow, that sorta thing). Musk owns something like 90-99% of the insider shares above.
Musk has adequate liquidity well outside Tesla that “Build Borrow” doesn’t really apply to him. And as an insider who’s obligated to file paperwork when he makes stock sales, you can see he’s made 9-figure sales of stock in the past two quarters, so he’s liquidating stock, rather than borrowing against it.
Like it or not, Tesla built itself by building hype about its products that it (usually late and usually under-featured, but nonetheless) delivered. I’m not a Tesla fanboi (don’t own one, don’t care for them), but to call it a house of cards – based on what can most charitably be called a misunderstanding of how its board and such operate – is somewhat misguided. While Blackrock and Vanguard and CALPERS undoubtedly have dumb people working for them, they also have lots of smart people who seem to think it’s a good investment.
“While Blackrock and Vanguard and CALPERS undoubtedly have dumb people working for them, they also have lots of smart people who seem to think it’s a good investment.”
I don’t disagree with this statement, but I would love to see the logic these people are using to think Tesla is a good buy. Tesla simply doesn’t pass the smell test at this point. I don’t see why the value of this company would go up in the future for any rational reason.
I disagree. Tesla stock is disproportionately owned by retail investors. I suspect a big part of the problem is that many retail investors buy based on name recognition as opposed to fundamentals. These investors have done well on Tesla stock over the past decade and as a result more uninformed investors have bought it. It feels like Tesla is an unintentional Ponzi scheme at this point. Other Magnificent 7 stocks (really any AI or AI adjacent stock) feel the same way.
Whatever the reason, though, I have greatly reduced my holdings in ETFs that are heavily invested in magnificent 7 stocks. I might end up regretting that in a few years, but valuations of TSLA (and AI stocks) seem absurd.
It’s the one hit wonder problem: an artist has a flash of brilliance, finds great (momentary) success. Cannot replicate the magic.
Elon/Tesla had a flash of brilliance with the S. The 3, X, and Y are all improvements and iterations of the same idea. Remixes of that one hit wonder if you will.
But that success created the hubris for Elon to believe ANY idea he had was going to be brilliant. The Semi and CT should be confirmation that lightning rarely strikes twice.
“It’s the one hit wonder problem”
True, but doesn’t that apply to most other car companies? Most companies have had at most one or two revolutionary products in their histories. For example, Toyota has had the Camry (which was revolutionary for its reliability and build quality at its price point) and the Prius. Toyota has built a lineup of desirable products based on innovations from those two vehicles. Companies shouldn’t have to rely on a string of truly innovative hit products to survive.
Saturn seems like a good parallel for Tesla. Saturn had a revolutionary idea and stagnated. It seems like Tesla is about where Saturn was in the mid 2000s. Tesla is about at the point where Saturn tried to survive with mediocre products like the Vue and Ion. If Tesla didn’t have a bunch of irrational backers (i.e. the yahoos who keep pumping up the stock price) it is hard to see where it wouldn’t end like Saturn in 2010.
Your first mistake is applying rationality or logic to that shitshow of a company.
This event has really put the bow on my Death of Tesla thesis. This is extremely emblematic of what Tesla has become, amongst so many other things that can be said. The rise of Tesla was that of world changing technology, rapid innovation and change, and the best that an independent upstart auto company could be. It introduced the world to the reality that EVs were feasible, created an incredibly desirable product in the Roadster and Model S, and and really changed the industry and the entire world.
Tesla was first and foremost founded as an automotive company. A novel one led by best of the best engineering, but a car company none the less. The Model 3’s debut in 2016 and production start in 2017 was even more revolutionary, as it made the dream of practical, cost efficient and pragmatic electric cars for the masses a reality.
What has happened in the 10 years since the debut of the Model 3 really shows the breadth of the about-face we have seen from Tesla, it’s board, shareholders, and most publicly its CEO. Their vehicles have become quickly outdated, uncompetitive, and largely overlooked by much of the buying public on their own lack of merits, not even counting the political implications dissuading many. Tesla has continuously squandered it’s lead, lagged behind competitors, and diverted resources gained from it’s vehicles into vanity projects like an overpriced Diner and obscene pay package for it’s supreme leader.
Tesla has decided that it’s best path forward is to entirely forsake it’s automotive division for pie in the sky Robotics and AI technologies, as well as a side-hustle in overhyped and underbaked autonomous vehicle technology. On it’s face (and to it’s investors) this seems genius, Tesla has pushed the boundaries with bleeding edge engineering and innovation, so surely this bet will pay off and justify its immense share price. The problem with this ideology is that as Elon has gone off the deep end and continued to move more of his time into companies not named Tesla, Tesla has completely abandoned it’s Engineering-First mindset, and rather does what Elon demands, reality be damned.
Autopilot/FSD is a Vision-Only pipe dream, which Elon has belief in, meaning Tesla has put all it’s eggs into a technologically-limited basket. It’s created an extremely polarizing and unpopular pickup truck nobody wants. It’s diverted it’s profits and now an entire manufacturing facility to a Humanoid Robot with 7-figure sales aspirations for a product which likely cannot even reach 5-figure unit demand. All this while promising it’s CEO an amount of money multiples higher than every dollar of profit it has ever made, and packing it’s board and leadership structure with pawns.
Tesla is a deeply broken company with a rudder running on ketamine and illusions of grandeur. The death of the Model S is the perfect symbolism for the death of Tesla we once knew.
This is everything about today’s late(ish)-stage capitalist economy. Get the engineers to craft something to build excitement. Set unimaginably high growth targets in the hype storm. Use growth hype to push investor FOMO. Extract value and make sure you aren’t left holding the bag.
Tesla is at the front. AI firms are shortly behind. The cycle will continue.
Cancelling two models with no direct replacements. Who does Elon think he is, Carlos Taveras (not pictured)?
Musk gets bored and moves on. That’s his personality and his personality is the company.
Honestly this has been a long time coming.
Hopefully this means the Model Y and Model 3 will get optional height adjustable air suspension now
Always like the S, at least until the yoke came along. Forgot it debuted in 2012. Thing was on a Volvo XC90-like life span.
Tesla: Time to let the Model S retire after 12 long years. Farewell, old friend.
Chevy: Move the chrome trim down and to the left slightly. BOOM! NEW SUBURBAN! CRANK ‘EM OUT!
And they’ll sell more than 5k units!
Every Abuelita in North America will buy one!
It’s past time they’re heading for the SEXIT door.
IMHO:
The ModelS was the best looking Tesla.
The Model3 and Y are the frumpiest.
Yeah the 3 and Y are not good looking. The 3 is tolerable but the Y is just an ugly fat 3.
I can’t tell any of them apart.
It’s easy: the Model 3 looks like someone left a Pontiac Aztek on a hot plate, and the Model Y looks like someone left a Pontiac Aztek on a hot plate.
Beginning of the end for Tesla.
I know that this is a hot take, but I think that Tesla would be far better off if Elon went packed sand. Let an actual adult run the company for a bit.
That take is hot like Taco Bell hot sauce packets. Anyone who wants Tesla to survive as a car manufacturer has been calling for change for years.
I had hopes five or six years ago that Tesla would split in three: one company to make cars, another to run the charging network, another for Elon’s AI BS.
2012 is when I landed my first engineering job, fresh after college. My uncle let me drive his 04 Mercedes C Class for a few weeks to save some money and buy a car for myself. I parked a few blocks away to avoid attention. My manager asked me how I was driving such a nice car lol first red flag, I dont know who told him but I only lasted 3 months there.
Optimus is a distraction to keep stock prices and interest up. Tesla is tanking, so he’s pulling some grandiose claims about vaporware out of his ass to keep the stock from tanking too.
And he always has been doing that! See: economy model, new Roadster, robotaxis, dumb ass transit tunnels, etc. I sure hope Optimus remains vaporware forever…
It’s just weird that it’s still working. You’d think ppl would have caught on that any new product will be years behind schedule and far less capable than promised.
They want to believe, because the alternative is that they’ve been hoodwinked for years.
It’s less about actual beliefs and more about money isn’t real
Nobody who’s invested in Tesla really cares, to be honest. All that matters is that the stock price keeps going up. The stock itself if all the hype it needs.
Just as most traders probably didn’t care about tulips. But, if the foundational premise is flawed, eventually someone will blink and it will collapse. Eventually…
As much as I hate Tesla, it’s amazing what good styling can do for a vehicle. It’s not the best looking vehicle ever; not even close. But it sure as hell is a pretty timeless design.
I can’t believe their stock went up after this news. We don’t live in a rational world.
Tesla badly needs a halo product. Here’s my suggestion: re-create one of the most desired cars of all time, the Mercedes 300-SL “Gullwing”. Start with a Model 3 Plaid chassis, add an updated 2-seater body, and use the falcon doors from the Model X.
I mean, they were supposed to put out the new Roadster years ago…
I don’t see how a halo product would benefit Tesla. The whole point of a halo product is to get people interested in the brand so they buy the company’s mainstream products. After dumping the S/X, Tesla is basically down to one mainstream product (the 3 and Y are very similar). Tesla desperately needs more mainstream products (a conventional pickup, a conventional SUV, a van, etc.).
My wife and I were not even engaged when we first went to test drive one of these, and we’ve been married 12 years.
The Model S is ancient, but it is worth pointing out the Model 3/Y are 9 years old (technically the Y was released in 2020, but it is similar enough to the 3 to be regarded as the same product). Those aren’t exactly new either.
I’m not sure how many more years the 3/Y can last without major updates (i.e. updates that are actually visible to potential buyers) before they are outdated and irrelevant like the S.
Nobody is going to buy the stupid robots.
I don’t know. All the Cybertruck owners might want an Optimus to ride with them in their Incel-camino because all their friends and family have left them.
How have I never heard “incel-camino” before? That’s genius.
All the Cybertruck owners wont be able to afford the 6-figure robots because of how underwater they are on their 84 month Cybertruck loans after buying them at 2x MSRP.
If they can wash, fold, and put away laundry I might buy one, otherwise I’ll pass.
I’m sure it will. And only sometimes will it put your dirty clothes and detergent into the dryer by mistake. Look forward to YouTube tutorials on how to clean that all up. By people who have no regrets they spent ____($5,000? $50,000?) for their own WALL-E.
If they build a WALL-E complete with personality and I’ll put my money down today!
Must be nice to have a Trillion dollars and live in an alternate reality.