If you want to know where any industry built on long product cycles is going in the near future, just look at what people can’t get enough of right now. Think silverware drawers in dishwashers, water dispensers in refrigerators, and yes, even certain forms of vehicle. The number-crunchers at S&P Global Mobility just published a study of registration data breaking down the most popular vehicle segments in America, and although it’s anecdotally clear that crossovers and full-size trucks have a King Kong grip on the landscape, now it’s analytically clear just how much these things are winning and sedans are losing.
The concept of a sedanocalypse is nothing new. It’s been years since Chrysler killed the 200 and the Dodge Dart, since Ford announced it was winding down several passenger car lines in North America, and since GM mulled over its portfolio and thought it didn’t need that many sedans. However, there’s no medium quite like cold, hard numbers to illustrate that the dominant cars of today aren’t traditional passenger cars.
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Let’s start off with the biggest segment in America, compact utilities. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that a reasonably sized tall vehicle with five seats and a hatch is what most Americans need to move people and stuff on everything from the commute to the road trip. Think of it like carcinization, except instead of non-crab crustaceans evolving into crabs, the normal perception of a car is evolving largely into crossovers. These are your Honda CR-Vs, Toyota RAV4s, and Chevrolet Equinoxes, but also smaller two-row body-on-frame SUVs like the Ford Bronco and Jeep Wrangler. Combined, they make up a whopping 21 percent of new registrations through May, which makes sense. They do a lot of stuff exceptionally well for most drivers.
Next up, it’s what’s next up the ladder in the crossover chain. What happens when you have too many kids to fit in a RAV4? You go up in size and look at larger crossovers, probably ones with three rows of seats. S&P Global Mobility calls this class Upper Midsize Utilities, with models like the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Ford Explorer, Honda Pilot, and Hyundai Santa Fe falling into this bracket that makes up 12.3 percent of all registered new vehicles over the first five months of the year.
I hope you’re ready for more crossovers, because the general public sure is. Where there’s room to go bigger, there’s room to go smaller, and that’s exactly what’s happening with the next-most popular segment of vehicle, which S&P Global Mobility confusingly named “Sub-compact plus utilities.” Wait, what the heck is the plus? Well, it’s basically the standard sort of subcompact crossover on sale in America because almost nothing as small as a Mazda CX-3 exists anymore. Models like the Chevrolet Trax, Subaru Crosstrek, and Honda HR-V make up the bulk of this segment that’s earned 12.2 percent market share, although the inclusion of the Ford Bronco Sport is a puzzling one considering it’s more closely aligned with the larger compact segment.
Rounding out the big four is an American cultural icon, the full-size half-ton pickup truck. Chevrolet Silverado 1500, GMC Sierra 1500, Ford F-150, Ram 1500, Toyota Tundra, all rise. Actually, Nissan Titan and Lordstown Endurance, rise from the dead, because S&P Global Mobility has found that Americans had registered 1,502 new Nissan Titans and two Lordstown Endurances through May. Weird. Anyway, this segment makes up 8.2 percent of all new vehicle sales, rounding off the big four.
Yes, this means that sedans, hatchbacks, minivans, and especially wagons are now but a small slice of new vehicles sold in America. The subcompact car is hanging by a boutique thread, sports car options are dwindling, but even the sort of attainable midsize sedan that used to be the default family car has seen its market share cleaved into by crossover dominance. If you want to know where the industry’s going, it’s going to chase the most customers, so expect an even more crossover-heavy mix as the decade drags on.
Top graphic image: Honda
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Unpopular opinion here I’m sure, but to me the sedan is the least useful configuration outside of sports cars. Wagons, hatchbacks, SUVs, and pickups are all better at moving people AND cargo.
Stupid crossovers are the most pointless vehicles ever…yeah, let’s cut down the back roof so there’s hardly any headroom…all in the name of looks…plus let’s make it ugly as hell
Does the Scout 2 from 71 or the 85 wrangler count as getting in before the trend on this small SUV thing? Both of mine drink gas like it was water from a tap. but both are kind of small by today’s standards. However, I can also say that the 68 camaro is by far the smallest thing I own outside of a motorcycle, followed closely by a G70.
Out of our 6 vehicle fleet the largest is a Honda Civic… So I guess we’re abnormal in the US…
Since the ’00 Dodge caravan left us in ’11, we’ve had nothing but sedans. I have looked at small pickup trucks, Tacoma and the GM small trucks, we’ve been a sedan family. Currently have 2 Audi A3’s (2016 TDI and 2025). I loath the CUV and SUV’s, though they vision improvements, do not out weigh the disadvantages.
Lord help me.
Imaginary Industry Press Release:
We are pleased to announce a new joint venture code named Milquetoast, created to develop a common vehicle platform to be shared by Toyota, Honda, Kia, Hyundai, GM, and Ford. The combined resources of these prestigious companies will work together to create a compact crossover chassis, drivetrain, suspension, body, and interior to exactly match current customer preferences. The impetus for this project came about when all the involved companies all came to the conclusion that 98% or more of their customers couldn’t identify their their own vehicles amongst the sea of similar cars in an average suburban school parking lot. When asked how they actually identified their cars, almost all respondents said, by using the key fob or by the stickers affixed to their respective cars. Company representatives all stated they weren’t the least bit worried about losing sales, rhetorically stating, “Ha ha ha, what else are they going to buy?” VW group were offered inclusion in the consortium, but declined our of fears of both saving money and being too reliable compared to their other products. Milquetoast models should be on sale before anyone notices.
Hopefully we at least get some fun ones like the Kona N…
Time to get up to 88 in the DMC-12, go back and fix this SUV nightmare timeline, because, obviously, Biff made some terrible changes that were never reversed.
Hear me out here: what if you had a more maneuverable center of gravity that was lower to the ground? Perhaps even with a separate cargo space if you don’t want to deal with a floppy interior cover?
Crazy. It’ll never work.
I was very impressed with how efficiently Volvo used the interior space on my 240.
I told my friend I think it has more space than another friends very tall jeep SUV.
He did the math and the jeep had less space.
Soon after that he got a Volvo wagon.
Me, chopped liver with my “compact MPV”….or previously with a conversion van, and who knows if/how those get counted when they’re new, never mind that mine certainly was not…
Yes, it is. With the Mirage out of production I believe the only subcompacts left are the Fiat 500e, Mini, and 2-Series. Most of the compact cars are gone too – over the years they grew into midsize cars.
(The current Civic is a midsize sedan now – larger than a 1995 Accord)
Where does the Corolla fit in here? Is it just too big to be called subcompact anymore? Maybe the GR86 still fits the bill?
Yes, the Corolla outgrew the subcompact class. It is a compact car today and has been since the 8th gen (1996 model year)
GR86 is a minicompact – a size below subcompact.
EDIT: And a quick check shows the 500e is also a minicompact.
Since the most recent vehicle purchase in our household was a minivan (23 Sienna), we’re still 0 for 3 with the current fleet, and 0 for 6 overall with a mix of sedans and hatchbacks (and one AW11 MR2). We’ll see if the trend continues whenever my wife’s 15 Focus hatchback in a few years.
Nope. I have had an SUV in the past, but not anymore. It wasn’t a hard job to convince me to get rid of it. Now I have an honest wagon (BMW 328i wagon) and a 2-door coupe (Mustang).
’22 GR86 6MT with a 2″ receiver for bike racks and utility/kayak trailer.
I guess as of last week, I qualify – the company truck that came with my new job is a RAM 1500 Classic Tradesman, so 1 of the 5 vehicles on the list is now in my household. But, I don’t own it, and after putting a couple thousand miles on it, I’d never want to
Chicken or the Egg Mr. Hundal? Are today’s manufacturers building only SUVs because the buyers want to buy 6 figure crap or are they building them and canceling less profitable vehicles to screw us out of our choices our money? I think it is like colors, they figure it’s cheaper to offer 3 colors and surprise it is the three colors that hide imperfections the best. Of course they are 3 most popular colors they are the only 3 colors available.
Some of the cheapest vehicles on sale today are CUVs.
Trax, Venue, Soul, Kicks, Trailblazer ….. All under $25,000
Blame Cafe and safety regulations for vehicles getting bigger if you want, along with keeping up with the Jones’s. but saying the car manufacturers are doing this to us when Americans are buying huge cars hand over fist and what few small ones still exist collect dust on lots is . . . Well, it sounds like you’re crafting the narrative you want to believe.
And which group spends thousands pr even millions lobbying for the specific carve outs and loopholes that got us into this mess?
hint: it isn’t a consumer’s lobby
Clearly not the environmental lobby either.
Whoa, now. I didn’t come to this here website to learn new words.
I believe it’s the process by which a carcinoma develops.
I was impressed. Extremely relevant use of the word too. Though I think of CUVs and SUVs as tall station wagons, so the evolutionary convergence is leading us back to a place we’ve been before.
What m I doing wrong? I count 54% adding the categories above. 46% is a lot, no?
Good chunk of my family have CUVs and my largest complaint about them (besides generic modern car gripes that apply to everything) are the hilariously useless rear bumpers. My dad’s CUV and many more are victims to hatch dent because the bumper doesn’t stick out far enough. There was an article here about it too.
Either way CUVs kinda remind me of the standard pre war cars in terms of overall height & ground clearance. I get the appeal of them but they’re not for me and that’s fine.
All these comments raise an interesting question of what does the average Autopian drive compared to the average American. Maybe a formal poll is in order?
2015 Honda Fit EX and I’m keeping it forever.
Okay but do I have to wear a Tuxedo or is a tuxedo T-shirt good enough?
This needs to happen.
If there’s one entity I’m willing to give my data to, it’s The Autopian. 😉
After shedding my The Family Years minivans and my Suburban, my last 5 cars are:
Fast sedan.
Fast luxury executive sedan.
Fast luxury sedan.
Diesel sedan.
Fast small luxury sedan.
It’s always been compact sedans and hatchbacks for me. I could see myself in a pickup theoretically, but it’d have be something compact also, like an old LUV.
I think as the buyers get older SUVs disappear or at least are Lower to the ground so we can get in the vehicle. For me getting into my brother’s jacked Dodge 2500 is like climbing Everest
People getting older is one of the reasons why crossovers are getting more popular. My parents are in their late 70’s and they recently switched from a Prius to a RAV4 hybrid because the RAV4 is much easier for them to get in and out of because the seat is basically at “seat” level.
Not exactly people getting older, but more specifically, the average age of the new car buyer becoming significantly older is one of the root causes.
Combined with younger new car buyers having to put kids in car seats – which is a pain (literally in the back) with a low sedan vs a CUV or minivan.
Perhaps, but this is not exactly a new problem. By 1985, every state had a car seat law on the books.
I do see how every successive generation, the car seats have gotten bulkier and the mandated age for children to be in a car seat has gotten higher, increasing the likelihood and the amount of time where multiple children need to be in a car seat.
I bit on the new hybrid Maverick. Price of a car, fuel economy of a car, seating capacity of a car, bed of a small truck. Haven’t regretted my choice.
It feels kinda big after my Honda Insight (x2), Mini, Chevy Bolt, and Kia Niro, and especially my vintage Crosley… until I park next to any other truck at the Menards. Then I’m back in Lilliput.
a pickup trick is just a burly sedan with the trunk lid removed
Happy to say in my household we don’t own a single SUV.
We are the same. Four vehicles, zero SUVs.
Never owned an SUV, only sedans.
I know Ford marketed the Mach E as an electric crossover, but to me it’s more of a tall hatchback since it’s not even as tall as an Escape.
The other two cars in our driveway are coupes – a fastback and a hatch. We’re grandparents now and if we need to carry the little kiddos, we’ll take the Mach. Otherwise, there is never anyone in the back seats of any of the cars.
It’s an SUV because the tax credit applies to trucks, vans, and SUVs with an MSRP of $80,000 or less. Sedans, hatchbacks, and coupes have to be $55,000 or less to qualify.
Yep, and I happily took that money from the government a couple of times. Now that that money is long gone, I’ll revert to calling the Mach E a tall hatchback. 🙂
I’ll definitely buy into the hatchback name.
Our fleet slots in between all the trendsetters – Outback wagon (“little farm truck”), 3/4T pickup, compact pickup. But we only buy used so the manufacturers (rightly) don’t care what we think.
FYI, you can fork a pallet into the Outback.
Used to have an 2005 Outback with the pancake 4 and manual transmission. The manufacturer’s plate under the hood said “Fuji Heavy Industries,” and I swear it was more truck than car. That little four was torquey – towed my small vintage car in a Uhaul 6×12’ box trailer, or a 14’ camper at various times without breaking a sweat.
https://i0.wp.com/itisgood.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/05-Subaru-camping.jpg
They’re just hard working wagons.
Serial manual hatchback buyer here.
There’s no reciprocal love from the auto companies.