Aside from the drama surrounding whether Subaru will ever bring back the STI, the Outback is definitely the most controversial vehicle in the company’s lineup right now. Historically one of the Japanese brand’s best-selling models, it made the switch from a lifted wagon to a far more SUV-looking bodystyle for 2026, drawing the ire of critics online.
Back when the new Outback debuted at the New York Auto Show last year, Thomas predicted Subaru might be making a mistake by pushing the Outback into full crossover territory, rather than keeping the Outback in its own, wagon-esque lane. Contributor Andrew Ganz doubled down on the new Outback’s questionable design when he reviewed the car for us in November (it’s worth noting he did like how it drove, though).
Now, sales for the first quarter of 2026 are out, highlighting the Outback as one of the biggest losers in terms of sales volume in the lineup. Deliveries fell by over 32%, from 39,934 cars in the first three months of 2025 to just 27,074 units in the first three months of 2026.
Surely, then, the Outback’s drastic design switch is causing sales to plummet, right? Well, that might be a cause. But there are a handful of other, more sensible reasons why Outback sales have fallen off a cliff. Let me explain.
Factories Can’t Magically Switch Cars Overnight
Dips in sales can often be seen when cars switch from one design to another, whether for a normal mid-cycle refresh or for a full-on design change, in the case of the Outback. This is because the factory has to retool to incorporate all the new gear to make the new car. Factories can’t just flip a switch and go from making one car to making an entirely different car without some pauses or slowdowns to make changes to the assembly line.
With the new Outback, Subaru had to deal with this switchover on an entirely different scale, since for 2026, it moved production of the Outback from its plant in Indiana to an assembly plant in Japan, to make room for more local Forester and Forester Hybrid production. Doing that kind of stuff takes time, so supply through the first quarter of 2026 was limited.
When I reached out to ask about the dip in sales, a Subaru spokesperson pointed out to me that the Wilderness trim, which has quickly become one of the Outback’s most popular submodels, only just started arriving at dealers sometime in January.
Remember That Thing Called Tariffs?
Another big reason why it appears like Outback sales are deflating is because of how unusually well the Outback sold during the same period last year. Those 39,934 cars represented a 13.4% increase over the year prior, which is a pretty substantial jump for an aging car that was one year away from being phased out of production.
According to Subaru, this increase was due to people swarming dealers to buy cars to get ahead of tariffs, which went into effect later in the year. We covered this phenomenon last year as it was happening—several brands experienced panic-buying in the months leading up to tariffs taking effect. So theoretically, this dip can be at least partially attributed to sales normalizing in a post-tariff environment.
On a more basic level, the slump in sales could also be affected by the Outback’s new price tag. Thanks to tariffs and the new design, the 2026 model starts at $36,445, making it a full $5,030 more expensive than the old car.
My point is, there is pretty much a perfect storm of reasons why Outback sales are down. The model year changeover, the switch in production to a place halfway across the world, the previous year’s one-off success, the bigger price tag, and the questionable looks are all factors that could be contributing, some more than others. How heavily the car’s design is affecting its success will likely become clearer later in the year once all of that other stuff balances out. A model year changeover is an excuse Subaru can only use once.
Personally, I think Subaru’s decision to turn the Outback from a lifted wagon, where it dominated in a segment mostly to itself, to yet another crossover was a weird one. It already had the Forester and the Crosstrek, and people who bought Outbacks purchased them specifically because they weren’t just another crossover (at least, that’s what my dad says to me—he was one of the people who grabbed a 2025 Outback last year before the tariffs hit).
I’d love to know what you think. Once the dust settles, do you think Outback sales will continue to decline based on its new design? Or is leaning into the holy land of crossovers the right call here? Let me know in the comments.
Top graphic image: Subaru
If they could offer a model with a manual transmission and less… baroque? cladding and trim, and if there wasn’t a tryanical pissbaby playing with tariffs looming over the entire industry, I’d probably trade in my BH for one.
Design wise, it doesn’t make much sense to me. The back looks like a bad AI rendering of a Euro-spec Wagoneer (amber lights!) and the front looks like Chevy.
I get the point of the article…but…The fact that Subaru abandoned its brand language to something that simply…doesn’t look like a Subaru—is beyond me. I can’t see their target demographic of two gay moms with their two gay dogs in Vermont loving this
And to answer your question: I really think there’s a core niche that’s been let down by the Legacy being discontinued and the Outback turning into this thing; I don’t know that it will affect the bottom line in a broader sense because Americans are so fickle, but I’m gonna guess it will. Crossovers don’t do it for me.
Subaru salesperson here. The only thing holding the current Outback back is the economy. Current Outback owners seem to really like it once they see it in person. It’s grown on me as well. Gives strong Volvo XC70 vibes in person
I’m curious about this! What are the demographics like? Are these folks longtime Subaru owners?
Could explain why I’m kinda into it, haven’t seen one in person though.
I’ll have to wait to see one around, but at first glance, this has none of the stylistic restraint and simple handsome looks of a Volvo.
They can call it whatever they want. Still looks like a station wagon in person.
Also I like how it looks, but thats just me lol
Looks almost like they just butched up an Isuzu Axiom from a quarter century ago.
https://www.theautopian.com/isuzu-once-tried-to-beat-crossovers-with-a-truck-based-suv-and-nobody-cared/
Subaru has just been blinded by the success of the previous versions.
Subaru has
justbeen blindedby the success of the previous versionsI’ve seen several in person already and I really don’t understand what the fuss is about. They look fine.
The new design is a big miss. The old model was very popular among buyers who could afford something from a luxury brand. Now that it looks like another SUV, it’s not special enough (or cheap enough) to keep those customers.
Subaru has also been extremely slow in bringing a hybrid Outback to market, something else that would appeal to its old customer base.
When it came time to replace our 2020, we ended up spending more for an XC60 PHEV instead of getting the new Outback.
I don’t find this Outback all that shocking because the Crosstrek has been setting the bar for seriously-ugly over-cladded Subarus for several years now. And sales are ripping.
While the Wilderness trim that dominates the Outback press photos is indeed ugly, the regular trims are a bit less so. I’d be surprised if it doesn’t do well.
Forester is also controversial. Both designs are bad and miss the mark. I like boxy but whatever Subaru is doing isn’t so much boxy but weird in a bad way. The outback people are upset but the Forester people are too. If the Crosstrek gets the same treatment it might be total game over for Subaru at least with ice. The Toyota bev are at least ok looking like everything else. So many Subaru owners look at the new Forester and wonder why it’s a Ford explorer now.
I don’t see outback nor Forester sales rebounding for this gen it’s more likely they discontinue the outback or badge a Toyota as an outback. I can see them trying to claw back Forester sales with a less explorer looking model. Or maybe just make the land Cruiser fj and call it a forester.
The Crosstrek did get the same treatment. It’s covered in block cladding and nonsensical bumper bulges and it’s a hunchbacked little gremlin with none of the original Outbacks subtle class or Forester’s simplistic charm. They sold nearly 200,000 of them last year.
Not to defend Subaru but it still looks like it’s self then the Forester or outback and similar looking to the previous gen outback. Not a weird Nissian meets Ford box thing. Cladding isn’t as crazy on all trims. Subaru being Subaru I have little doubt this weird Nissian meets Ford style will be trust apon the Crosstrek in the next gen.
At least the Forester stuck to its core identity- a CUV with big and tall greenhouse windows.
What’s even more disturbing about the Forester then it looking like it does it and tons rotting on dealer lots. Is there are already over 600 for sale as cpo with at least 1000 for sale as used. Basically returned units after being kept a few months. At.this rate they stand a chance to take the crown away from the Titian xd.
If the redesign was the new Ascent, it would have been a better choice. It makes a horrible Outback. Just change the badge, and it is a win!
But as is, it pretty much took it off list for me, and I am core Outback demographic; Middle-aged professional, with kids, hunt/fish/camp, live Vermont. . .but sadly, no dog 🙁
If I wanted an SUV. . .I would just go full SUV, not that mis-porportioned, too big/upright be a wagon, not quite an SUV abomination.
Oh the obvious reason that came to mind for me was the model changeover…
“Personally, I think Subaru’s decision to turn the Outback from a lifted wagon, where it dominated in a segment mostly to itself, to yet another crossover was a weird one.”
I have absolutely no idea what the heck you are talking about here. A crossover is a lifted wagon. The new Outback is the same length, height, and wheelbase as before but with butcher styling. It’s damn ugly now, but if it was a wagon before it’s a wagon still, and if it is a crossover now it was a crossover before.
Completely agree. The Outback legally been a SUV since 2005 when they jacked up the ground clearance to 8 1/2 inches. The last gen was the same height as a Honda CRV. (My neighbor has one of each)
All Subaru did with the latest gen is make the front end blocky.
Exactly. It’s been years since it has been a wagon with a little lift.
Brian, care to elaborate on what you meant?
Come on- you know a CUV is not just a lifted wagon. A wagon is more squat. A CUV is taller in all dimensions.
Also, remember the origin of the Outback. It started out as the Legacy Outback. It was the lifted up version of the Legacy wagon. Eventually the Legacy wagon disappeared, but the Outback was still based on the Legacy sedan. You can look at the front sheetmetal and the interior, and see that it’s all the same between the two cars. Until this latest one where it’s a total divorce from the Legacy wagon/sedan lineage.
What, precisely, is the height at which a lifted wagon transitions into a CUV?
Once you have set that baseline, then please show me the dimensions of a 2026 and a 2024 Outback, and point out where the 2026 crossed the line into “CUV”.
I personally think this will be quite a challenge, since they have the same ground clearance and a whole 1.4″ separates their roof rail heights.
’95-99 model is what put Outbacks on the map in a big way. It was literally a Legacy station wagon with a small lift and cladding and it discovered an untapped demographic: an SUV for people who don’t want an SUV. Money for everybody! The updates that followed until the new one stayed in that lane because why kill the golden goose? At some point the business guys convinced themselves they could keep this golden demo plus gain conquest SUV sales if they just made the Outback look more trucky. What they have now is a vehicle people can’t rationalize as a station wagon, therefore sales are sucko.
I was hoping the sales slump was because people have eyes
I say this with all due respect as I like boxy stuff, but that thing is U-G-L-Y.
I think the new design puts it in a confusing place in their lineup, it should go back to its wagon roots. It’s got way more direct competition at the size and shape that it currently sits at and it looks preposterous.
Agree if that means 2000 dimensions when it was lifted about an inch but still had a wagon body. That is the sweet spot for me as it has a bit more ground clearance for forest roads but is still easy to load skis into a roof box.
Agreed. That should be the real test- how easy is it to load skis or bikes onto the roof rack? The Outback can’t be beat (at least until I switched to a roof box, and that required me to stand on the door sill to access).
The new outback is hands down the most ungainly vehicle on the road. I call it the ballerina Hippo. Tall rig with puffy cladding, standing on a too-narrow and too-short wheelbase. And then to move production to a tariff region? Ridiculous. I’ve been a Subaru fan my entire life, grew up with Loyale wagons, my grandpa had a Brat, I had two Legacy (a sedan and a wagon), my sister has a 2010 Outback and parents still have a 2010 Forester. I love Subaru but all i can do is shake my head at them these days.
I’ll buck the commentary here.
I thought it was a bulbous looking mess before.
The new one is overwrought, too, but from a silhouette is a Forester +10%, so it’s become a practical tall-wagonesque-suv.
I bought a 26 Outback a month ago… Premier XT trim in Canada. (I think they call it the Touring XT trim in the US? I’m not sure why they do this). So far, I’m liking it! But it’s all about use case. My wife and I test drove the Forester and liked it, but as soon as we took the Outback out… the turbo sold me, and the interior layout and extra space with the seats folded down sold her. I definitely get that the change is divisive though. So far, no complaints, but I’ve only got about 3,000km in on it. A couple folks in my small BC town have already asked about it and commented positively.
One thing that I have no way of verifying but it came up in the sales process… and of course it was a salesperson saying this so take with the appropriate grain of salt, but apparently all Subarus in Canada are now coming from Japan as they’re tariff-free. Even the Forester, which is built in both Japan and Indiana or something, all Canadian Foresters will be Japan-only.
I mean it makes sense as much as anything does in this cursed year of 2026, but it’s interesting to note.
Yes that makes complete (tariff) sense.
Last year we stopped shipping US built vehicles to Canada to avoid Canadian tariffs on US vehicles. Now those come from Mexico which opens more space in US plants for US spec vehicles. Logistically it makes no sense but with tariffs all the extra shipping (both parts and finished vehicles) is less than paying tariffs.
I should note here as well that I get to avoid some of the “omg what did they do” myself as it’s my first Subaru. I had test drove a Forester 10 years ago and liked it, but ended up with a Mazda CX-5 instead. I needed something a little bigger, better towing and cargo capacity, that my wife felt really comfortable in, that’s capable of BC roads and off-roads (to a point). The 26 Outback checked the boxes. So I get to go in all Tabula Rasa.
Thank you Trump for killing an American export
I am sure Indiana will continue to vote for him a 3rd time.
As mentioned a very close to 20% price jump sure did no favors here.
I’ve seen the new Outback before. I know I have. I’m here every day, probably even commented on it back when we got the first peek at it.
But seeing it again with fresh or at least forgetful eyes, gaining a rare chance at a second first impression, I’ve come to appreciate how goddamn ugly it is all over again.
“…the Outback’s drastic design switch is causing sales to plummet, right? Well, that might be a cause. But there are a handful of other, more sensible reasons why Outback sales have fallen off a cliff.”
You’re saying that not buying a previously popular car because of a horrendous new design is not a sensible choice?
That’s certainly a hot take….
The new Outback looks like it already fell off a cliff, so that tracks
As a purchaser of two Outbacks, I know I would never buy one of the newer models. I parked mine next to one of the new design and the difference was staggering, and not in a good way. I know I am not alone in this either.
“and the difference was staggering, and not in a good way”
Are you referencing the styling? Or is there something more fundamental that’s changed?
Different front and rear wheel sizes, obviously!
/s
…just give us the Levorg as an Outback Sport, and everything will be ok.
Levorg with 6MT, and not the CVT, right?
Right?
Seriously. Bring back the Legacy wagon and all will be forgiven.