I usually do the Wordle first thing in the morning, and for fun I take my performance as a sort of sign of how in sync with the universe I am. If I can grab a 2/6 I’m in the zone, but anything worse than a 4/6 portends disharmony. This morning I broke a long streak with the dreaded x/6.
This is all to say that, after looking at today’s big news, I conferred with most of the staff to discuss how I’d approach today’s Morning Dump. The news is dominated by reactions to the President’s policy agenda, and that policy agenda has a huge impact on the automotive market.
Much of it revolves around two fixations: Very small Japanese cars and a very large European island. What happens next is of no small importance to humanity in general, and I’m somewhat grateful this morning that my remit is to put it primarily in the context of cars and not, say, the Treaty of Westphalia.
Being out of sync, I’m going to take this carefully and slowly, starting with the revelation that President Trump still wants automakers to build Kei cars, then talking about how this whole Greenland business could have major effects on European automakers, before talking about how it’s going to benefit companies building cars in China.
And, since I’m already talking about how strange the world has become, I might as well toss in the fact that Renault is going to start making drones.
The President Again Asked Ford CEO Point Blank If He Could ‘Sell Kei Cars Here In The U.S.’
The President surprised everyone, including the assembled representatives of America’s 2.5 major automakers, by announcing that he’d made it legal to build Kei cars here in the United States. He seemed to be talking very specifically about the small Japanese cars that were designed to be cheap, qualify for lower insurance, and could be owned without needing to prove you have a parking spot.
Looking at his statements, the best anyone can gather is that President Trump saw these on his swing through Asia and, facing a huge affordability crisis, wants a VW Beetle-like people’s car that normal people could buy for a small amount of money.
So far as I can tell, it isn’t suddenly easier or more practical to build Kei cars, and no automaker has gone on the record saying that they’re going to do it. The specific regulation changes he or Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is working on haven’t been announced, and, arguably, it is legal to currently build something like them here.`
While I sort of took the Kei Car thing as a one-off thing said in passing, it’s apparently not, as CEO Jim Farley recently mentioned. This comes via the Detroit Free Press, and it’s a thinker:
He brought it up to Ford’s top executives during his Jan. 13 factory tour at Rouge Center — where Ford makes its full-sized F-150 pickup.
“The president today asked me, ‘Can you sell kei cars here in the U.S.?’ ” Farley told the media on the sidelines of the Detroit Auto Show the evening of Jan. 13. “I think that’s exciting. That’s fun to talk about the possibilities.”
A reporter quickly followed up, asking Farley how he replied to Trump’s question.
Farley paused and then said: “I worked at the Scion brand and brought that into the country and I loved that little car. But we’ll continue to look at the market. Affordability is a priority for us. But frankly a small minivan for six people in the U.S., I’m not sure that will be a high ticket.”
There’s a lot to unpack here, because when enthusiasts hear “Kei” car, we imagine a Daihatsu Copen or a Honda Acty truck. What Farley is alluding to is something like a microvan, more in the mold of a Suzuki Every Plus. Technically, most of these 6- or 7-passenger tiny vans are not really Kei, but that’s a difference most people don’t recognize, as many of these are extended versions of Kei platforms.
Ford, actually, made one of these! The company’s Taiwan JV sold a version of the Suzuki Carry ST80 rebadged as the Ford Pronto for a few years (see the image at the top of this post). Based on what Farley said, that’s what President Trump is imagining.
I don’t know that there’s a market here for that, nor do I know that an American car company could find enough margin to build one of those here, but I kind of love the idea. This is not a conversation I’d ever imagine we’d be having as a car community. I’m highly skeptical this will come to be, though I’m tickled by the idea because I think it would be cool.
I also think Slate should just shift to building something like a six-passenger version of its platform.
The EU And US Trade Deal May Be Kaput
Speaking of Taiwan, that’s usually the island of massive geopolitical importance in the news because its geographically proximate neighbor seems to desperately want it even while the rest of the world and a majority of its own inhabitants are like “nooooooo, stop that.”
Now, it’s Greenland. Whether you believe the country is of such ginormous strategic importance that it’s worth buying or invading, or you think this is because President Trump is upset that he didn’t get a Nobel Peace Prize, is important, but the actual reasoning isn’t as relevant if you’re a European carmaker as the huge disruption it’s going to cause.
If you’re a European carmaker, you’re saying “noooooo, stop that” to anyone who will listen. The EU and the United States tentatively have a new trade deal, and that trade deal would allow various brands to sell European-built cars on this side of the Atlantic with only a 15% import duty.
The President is now threatening to throw all of that out the window, according to Bloomberg:
Over the weekend, Trump blindsided a number of European countries, including Germany and France, with a plan to slap additional duties of 10% on imports from February, rising to 25% in June. German manufacturers rely on the US as a major source of sales and profits, and import models such as Mercedes’ S-Class to the country.
The carmakers are already under pressure from Trump’s tariffs, currently set at 15% for most vehicles and parts imported from the European Union. The US president roiled auto markets last year with extra duties that rose from around 2.5%, triggering profit warnings across the sector.
It’s pretty obvious why this would harm automakers building cars in Europe and selling them in the U.S., but this gets worse if you consider that European automakers could also impose duties on American-built cars going to Europe, which are mostly European luxury SUVs and crossovers from Mercedes, BMW, and Volvo.
The European Parliament is reportedly stopping work on the trade deal, and some European leaders are instead threatening to use something called the “trade bazooka” on the United States.
Here’s CNBC‘s explanation of that:
Regional diplomats held an emergency meeting in Brussels on Sunday afternoon to discuss their response to Trump’s threat to escalate tariffs, with France reportedly pushing for the EU to use its strongest economic counter-threat to the U.S., known as the “Anti-Coercion Instrument” (ACI).
The much-vaunted instrument is seen as a nuclear option when it comes to economic counter-measures as it could see the EU restrict U.S. suppliers’ access to the EU market, excluding them from participation in public tenders in the bloc, as well as putting export and import restrictions on goods and services and putting potential limits on foreign direct investment in the region.
The lack of a trade deal could effectively kill an automaker like Ineos, which builds its cars in France, and a tariff on imports of American-built cars would make life for various European carmakers even worse. For now, the EU threat seems to be to re-implement suspended retaliatory measures, which impact targeted products like “bourbon, certain textile products, specific steel and aluminum products, motorbikes and boats.” Wisely, the EU kept cars out of this deal, as it would mostly harm them.
If the logic of politics is to keep your friends close and your enemies closer, then perhaps this move is designed to get even closer to other NATO nations by making them enemies?
All Of This Is Leading To A 50% Drop In The Price Of The Lotus Eletre
Just so you don’t think that only President Trump has used tariffs for political reasons, President Biden also put a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs during his term. I wrote that this specifically hurt Lotus, which planned to sell a bunch of Chinese-built EVs in the United States.
Canada has historically maintained a similar posture with regard to tariffs on Chinese-built cars, but the recent moves from the White House have led to the Canadian government allowing a growing number of imports.
While this might be good for Chinese brands, it’s maybe even better news for American and European brands that build cars in China but already have brands in Canada, as Bloomberg reports:
At the top end of the market, the agreement has been welcomed by Geely-controlled sports car brand Lotus. Its Eletre sport utility vehicle, which starts at C$313,500 ($225,600), is one of the few luxury China-made EVs to have entered the region. The brand said in a statement it expects the selling price will drop by about 50% with the new tariff rate.
Polestar, another big name in Chinese billionaire Li Shufu’s Geely empire, has been particularly hard hit by the US and Canada’s imposition of hefty tariffs. After the US raised its duties, the company pivoted its focus to the Polestar 3, which is made in its factory in South Carolina, and the Polestar 4, produced in a contract manufacturing deal with a Geely and Renault SA joint venture in South Korea.
Polestar, Lotus, Volvo, and Tesla could all be winners here, which is a strange twist.
Renault To Make Drones
It’s not uncommon in times of war for automakers to be turned into the producers of various armaments and weapons. With a war going on in Ukraine, the French government has made a deal with Renault and defense company Turgis Gaillard to build drones for that nation’s military:
Here’s the Financial Times on what’s been announced so far:
Renault said it would work with Turgis Gaillard to produce drones at two of its sites but declined to comment on the value of the contract or the number of drones to be produced.
“We were contacted for our production and creative industrial expertise. This project is ongoing and is led by the defence ministry. We confirm our participation in this project, at the request of the state,” Renault director Fabrice Cambolive told broadcaster BFM Business on Tuesday.
It’s not yet known if these will be weaponized or surveillance drones, although it looks like many of them will be built in the company’s Le Mans facility.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Peter Frampton’s “Frampton Comes Alive!” is now 50 years old. This is the whole album in YouTube form, and it’s worth sticking around for the big finale (if you ruin it, he’s going to be pissed off!).
The Big Question
What would an affordable six-passenger minivan for Americans look like?
Top photo: Suzuki, Ford, DepositPhotos.com
It would look an awful lot like a Dodge Journey, or would need to in order to sell.
Space for the money is among the top criteria for American car buyers. A shrunken kei-style van would appeal to niche folks and very few others.
Yep, was just about to comment something similar.
While I think Americans would be willing to go for something a little smaller than the Journey for the right price, you’re right that kei-sized vehicles don’t have a prayer here. I mean, maybe before we start making sub-sub-compact cars for this market, we could start with a regular compact or subcompact? Or maybe even start with what would essentially be a Journey?
I skimmed that first sentence as “awful Dodge Journey”…
Yes, it was.
And if Chrysler makes a Kei, it would very likely, also, be awful.
I’d rather GM rolls the dice and makes a Kei. As it would be one of two things: brilliant, and then cancelled immediately. Or a steaming pile of schijt that resembles a GMC SUV with no functional space for even two adults and compromised in every single way.
I guess I need to drive one again, I never hated getting one for a rental. seemed adequate in every sense. Considering the JC was also responsible for the Avenger and Cobalt cars, I would even say it was good, as I did not like driving either of those cars. I think the AWD Pentastar version was probably the peak Journey though. it had at least a relatively ok engine and did not get a CVT, and it was comfy inside, just not sporty or really all that offroad worthy. Again, just adequate for 4 season Kid hauling.
It might appeal to more, but overall price would dictate a lot of that too.
But I think the bigger thing here is still the number of people living in a city that would even want a city car. parking, taxes and overall necessity affect the sales pretty heavily. the people commuting form a suburb might look at one and as long as it did not cost too much to have it as a second car to commute in then it might work, but it is of course a big might and overall adoption and implementation would probably take longer than many companies would accept.
I approve of the Kei Car as long as we get a new Smart roadster and the AutoZam AZ-1. Modernized and perhaps the max CC raised to 1000.
Shove a 1.0 in a Honda S660 and I’m there.
TBQ: Resurrection of the Ford Transit Connect, but on a Fiesta platform?
I’m going to assume either Ron Lauder or Peter Navarro is a secret JDM kei enthusiast, because they seem to be the only people the president listens to on anything
Little did we know Peter Thiel could have been mollified with more kei car coverage on The Old Site.
Peter Theil’s PA in LA was assigned a SMART car for his business errands.
Ask me how I know this.
I think we need an Exhaust Leaks post about this. 😉
Was it you UR?
Oh hell no – it wasn’t me.
A few years back I was in the service line at Beverly Hills Mercedes-Benz for my appointment – and a SMART car pulled in behind me being piloted by a reasonably attractive, but meek-appearing young man (No – Not JD) and he was waiting to see my service writer after me.
When I was in the office, my service writer told me that’s who the guy behind me was – as he was frequently down there since part of his duties was to bring all Peter’s Mercedes’ down for servicing, and the SMART was for the PA’s errands.
Steven Miller would like to join the chat…
Maybe it is him? Everyone gets one of their pet projects for the president to focus on, Lauder is Greenland, Navarro is tariffs, maybe Miller is the kei guy?
I so want to say kei kei kei guy, but that wouldn’t be appropriate for this forum.
I’ll bet he likes talking about Kei cars because they are recognizable as just large golf carts. When you spend as much time golfing and thinking about golfing like him, a nicer golf cart is probably something that floats to the top of the mind. So of course he would love to see nicer golf carts on his courses. Kei cars = nicer, bigger, golf carts
As we have learned, he’s all about the fastest golf cart.
Given who is gonna be left to trade with, I think a cheap 6 passenger van in the US is gonna look like a Bukhanka.
Loaves of bread for the the people!
Meanwhile, I’ll be zipping around in a cheap imported Chinese EV.
Okay but I unironically want a Bukhanka. Who do I need to vote for to allow me to import and plate one
See: Bukhanka
Read: Bukkake
Might need new glasses…
Especially after the latter!
Agent Krasnov has you covered already.
If you’re in Canada, like me, import whatever you want! We only have a 15 year rule. Not 25.
You are lucky my Canadian friend .
Not only do you have national healthcare, normal intellectual people in charge , no goon squads ,you can also import whatever you want for cars after 15 years.
“The President Won’t Stop Talking” – FIFY
Many many many words come out of the presidential pie hole. A few of them are true. A handful aren’t even words. I wouldn’t count on getting Kei cars, or Greenland. But we’re going to piss off a bunch of folks we used to be friends with. Moron.
I miss Sleepy Joe, where I could ignore the news for weeks at a time and the world still functioned fairly well.
ANY competent President, from ANY party, is doing their job well when we don’t hear about or from them for weeks at a time.
or have to think about them. Thats always been my mark of competence.
I’m going to be honest – I didn’t know a lot about Kamala and I suspect most people were in the same boat. I do think it was an oversight of the administration not to make her more publicly facing when there was a chance of her becoming the Democratic nominee (even if Biden didn’t bow out, she’d probably have been there in 2028). But that’s the norm, right? We didn’t hear a lot about Pence either (just enough to know he was evil, but like in an old school GOP evil kind of way) and we didn’t know what Biden was doing before that. If they are doing their job we shouldn’t see them tweeting (mostly racist) shit 5 times a day.
If Trump can just “make kei cars legal” what are we even paying Congress for? Are the 3 branches just a trunk now?
Congress gave the USDOT very wide leeway in writing automotive regulations, the vast majority of what’s in the FMVSS right now was never passed by Congress. Its an executive branch agency with regulatory power that has the force of law
Fine — if USDOT is accidently doing something legal, then I will repeat OP’s question, but aim it at tariffs.
I actually think The Bishop had it right, a for a Kei vehicle to do any volume in the US it will end up being closer to a street legal SxS or UTV than it is to just being a small car.
A modern Mazda5 would be awesome. Name it the Bongo Friendee…for reasons.
Also, a stretched 3 row Ford Maverick would be neat.
Just finished a two week Japan road trip in a friend’s manual diesel 4×4 Mazda Bongo Brawny, and I have to say that Bongo Brawny is a fantastic name for a van.
When I was a TV news photographer, one of the stations I worked at had cameras made by Ikegami. Their models all started with the letters HL e.g. HL-79, HL-83, HL-95 etc. HL stood for “Handy Lookie,” which we all found amusing.
Hell even a modern MVP would be awesome. We don’t even have a van that size anymore, much less a Mazda5.
A present-day MPV-sized passenger van is all I’ve ever wanted. All the better if it were actually a Mazda.
I would trade some of the length (and a little width) of the Chrysler for something more maneuverable. In the situation that I really need it to function for 6 people and cargo, a roof box works fine.
There was very briefly a rumor (based on some dealer meeting slides) that Ford was going to build a Transit Connect replacement on the Maverick platform. I was seriously hoping for that, as I’m still not sure what to replace my Mazda5 with and a similarly sized van with hybrid, AWD, and 4k towing would be the perfect fit.
But alas, that seems to have gone out the window with all the uncertainty.
Kinda like a kei DF wagon?
I think the biggest problem with having kei vehicles in the US is just that the US isn’t designed for them (or more appropriately they are not designed for the US). I love kei vehicles, I get a kick out of every one I see around here, but I wouldn’t want my kids to drive one, and considering that every other vehichle where I live is a giant Child Crusher 3000 fuck you truck, I wouldn’t feel safe driving one either.
I feel like some of that is the point with him. He probably thinks not everyone deserves safety if they can’t afford it. He probably isn’t aware Keis aren’t necessarily great at American wide open highway speeds, but if he was he’d probably also think that was good as it would keep the poors less mobile.
I think he’s just looking for his Beetle
It already exists. He rolled it out on the white house lawn and gave his little spiel about it like Elon paid him to.
There is so much subtext in your comment, ChefCJ.
Someone once got fairly upset at me on this site for making an outright political statement here, and since I like coming here more than I like pissing people off (51/49), I try to refrain from making direct, pointed political comments that might upset someone.
Subtext, however, is a beautifully gray area you can really wallow around in
Just like the one that other Fascist had.
I already feel exposed enough in a Honda Fit and it is much bigger than a kei car. I’m not even sure I’d be able to safely merge on my commute with a smaller car. I have to floor it as is and there’s still been a few times where I didn’t quite make it.
I drive a VW wagon, and spend the majority of my morning commute surrounded by giant, lifted trucks, so I know exactly what you mean. There’s a massive white f150 on at least 33s that spends a solid 10 minutes every morning inches away from my bumper inhaling my diesel fumes with his high beams slowly roasting the interior of my car, slightly swerving a little back into forth in what apears to me agitation at my reluctance to only go 10 mph over the speed limit, but may well just be an attempt to make sure that back of my head is evenly cooked. It’s a joy
Exactly. What the US needs is mega-SUVs made by Peterbilt. Or maybe EMD (what’s not to love? they’re both diesel AND electric! and you won’t even notice the bump when the Child Crusher 3000 hits you and is crushed beneath your wheels!).
The ICI absolutely needs to be invoked, and Farly is a boot licker.. hot takes for today.
ICI? That anything like the 25th Amendment?
25th Amendment truly appropriate for dementia-addled presidents.
This presupposes the Cabinet and VP are competent enough to invoke it.
Very true… Plus, they all seem chosen for the ability to say “Yes” without thinking about… Just saying “Yes” without thinking at all.
With each “truth” tweeted, or word salad of revenge or madness spoken to the press, the US slides farther into the abyss. I wish that those who had political power now would do more than simply quit because of despair. They could affect change, and they’re too spineless to do the right thing.
ACI oops
Now Trump has the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators (AAMVA) against him. Countdown until somehow Trump’s vehicles can’t get registered.
OK, but if he starts pissing off his base of dealership owners, he’s toast.
Now someone tell Trump the AAMVA is a bunch of liberal, kei-hating socialists that support Greenland because of Obama and let the incompetent fury reign down on them.
You nailed it.
Maaaybe, just maybe, if GM moved production of the Trax to the US, stretched the wheelbase by a foot, and plunked a van-like body on it, it would sell.
I’d say that hurt Geely, as it was designed to. Because the Eletre is not a Lotus. It just disgracefully had a Lotus badge put on it. It deserves its fate.
As a former owner of a Mazda5, I’d love to see them bring that back. But, I can’t imagine anything smaller than that doing well here, let alone being profitable.
it’s so awesome that terrible people keep letting the spoiled baby get away with all of his idiotic butt-hurt pettiness.
I’m going with the theory that the Joint Chiefs said “no, Mister President” so now he’s throwing the bestest toddler tantrum EVAR.
I’ve had a theory that they keep dangling other countries for him to attack in front of him to try and distract him away from Greenland and Denmark (Mr. President, how about Venezuela? We could hit Iran. How about we do something to Cuba?)
*sound of jingling keys*
Rebirth of the Mazda5 would be the smallest profitable 6 passenger minivan that could exist here I think. And I would love to see more cars in that segment!
I was thinking about the 5. That was a classic!
I’ve got family car shopping right now and that was the first thing I suggested for them, but they were bored by it which was devastating. It’s such a great car.
Any one of us could have bought a Mazda 5, either new or used. Still can buy one used for that matter. But how many of us actually DID buy one or are actively looking for one? Yeah, exactly…
I did! And I came awfully close to buying another when one popped up near me with fewer miles and a manual.
And since I still can’t find a suitable replacement, I do still check to see if another will pop up for the right deal. I absolutely love mine.
I very much wanted to buy one, but upon test driving one I found the interior proportions to be weird. As a reviewer (can’t remember who) cleverly stated, “It feels like a 70% scale model of a real car.”
That is not to say that the problem was because it was small. The Mazda 3 of that same generation did not feel small to me. There was just something about the packaging of the 5 that made it feel…odd (to me at least).
If anyone made a well-proportioned small van today, I would be first in line to check it out. It is exactly what I need. How did we get ourselves into a position where the freaking Sienna is the smallest van available in this country?!
What would an affordable six-passenger minivan for Americans look like?
A 1986 Plymouth Voyager
Yes please
Lot’s of cheap looking hard plastics, no heat or air vents for anyone past the first row, cheap feeling upholstery, and the bare minimum of features.
Sign me up!
It is refreshingly honest when someone says “I need to be able to haul 5 other people regularly, but I could not care less about their comfort.”
I somehow survived decades of that cruel deprivation. Just wanting to pass along the trauma.
Cool
However DID we survive all those… centuries?
There’s a market for small cars in the US but not enough to support certification to our similar-but-different safety and emissions standards let alone domestic manufacture.
Ideally we’d accede to UNECE standards or at least allow them as an alternative certification and the next administration can sweep away tariffs, even if protective ones on larger vehicles stay in place.
Bringing back some environmental, efficiency and safety regulations would increase the size of the small car market, by finally making it punitive for needlessly owning a large vehicle.
Safety regulations are a big part of what killed the small car market. It’s harder to make a small car pass crash tests and it raises the cost floor, which means there’s less room for profit.
Really?
Then how do small cars like the Honda Jazz/Fit, Mini Cooper, Renault Clio, BYD Dolphin, GWM Ora 03, Skoda Fabia and VW Polo get five-star NCAP scores?
I didn’t say it was impossible, just that it made it economically unviable in the US. Note how only one of those vehicles is still sold in the US, and it’s nowhere near kei size.
Small cars are not economically viable in the US due to safety regulations – otherwise they wouldn’t sell in Europe, Asia, Central and South America.
Its due to longstanding US policy which heavily subsidizes oil with our tax dollars, keeping prices low at the pumps – plus favorable business tax depreciation laws for vehicles over 6500 GVWR, which makes it easy for the US populace to justify purchasing larger and more powerful vehicles than necessary.
A gallon of fuel in the US costs the same or less than a liter of fuel in other countries – plus road taxes on larger displacement engines in other countries has zero equivalence here – making larger vehicles an easy buy in the US.
The US car market just follows the money.
All rules and regulations that lead to waste and need a good change.
*are not not economically viable*
Damned double negative always gets me.
Honestly another gas crisis would be pretty neat for the car market
What would an affordable six-passenger minivan for Americans look like?
Mazda5.
I miss the Mazda5.
I miss our 2010 5 speed. It carted our family of 5 around for many years and was fun to drive. Rust killed it. I donated it a few months back and got a receipt saying it fetched less than $500. Sounds about right.
*stares wistfully at the one in my driveway that I can’t find a replacement for as it ticks over to 14 years old*
The PedoFelon just can’t get his mind off little things.
This is perfect and no way would they make it COTD, but it should be.
The President Won’t Stop Talking
Fixed the headline for you
2X