It’s that time of year when some people buy a car and put a giant bow on it. It’s also the time of year when our deep personal beliefs start to sometimes come into conflict with those of our loved ones. I have a friend who is Happy Honda Days, and he married into a Lexus December to Remember family, and they’re making it work, but I’d be lying if I said it was always easy for them.
The Morning Dump doesn’t take a stand in any direction (Full disclosure: I’m non-practicing Ford Truck Month). I will, however, help you make some decisions if you’re heading toward the end of the year and you’re thinking about buying a new car. There’s a chart, and this chart is very instructive about what might be a good deal and what might not be.
Volkswagen considered building a plant in the United States for Audi in order to get around tariffs, but you need money to make investments, and VW is a little short on financing right now. Mazda also isn’t exactly flush with cash, but it’s coming out with an EV in North America for… reasons.
How are British automakers doing? JLR was en route to a very profitable year, but a cyberattack is about to take a huge bite out of the company’s prospects. Ineos, the company that makes Land Rover-looking trucks, is cutting back dramatically in order to save money.
Let’s dump!
It’s A Good Time To Buy A Jeep, Always A Challenging Time To Buy A Lexus
There are two charts that I look at to see what the total market picture looks like for cars. One shows Average Transaction Price (ATP) versus incentive spending, and this gives you a nice historical view of where prices are trending.
You can see the pandemic in there, you can see prices stabilizing out of the pandemic, and incentive spend coming back. You can sort of see the tariffs, but you can definitely see the little rise in price due to the high mix of electric cars sold before the expiration of the tax credit. That’s good for looking backwards, but here’s the chart, also from Cox Automotive, that I look at to make some predictions going forward:
This is “Days’ Supply,” which is a simple measure that looks at how much inventory a brand has versus how many days it takes for that brand to sell a car. On average, this number is 88 days (go SvG!), which is higher than the 50-60 days that usually signify a healthy balance between supply and demand. Anyone to the right of the average has a lot of cars, and anyone to the left of the line is a little tight, although there are a few standouts here that are worth talking about.
On the side of “we don’t have enough cars” are Lexus and Toyota. It’s pretty much always like this. While this is very model-by-model and dealer-by-dealer specific, anyone who has tried to buy a Toyota or Lexus at any point in the last few years isn’t going to be surprised by this chart. If you’re looking for a good deal from one of those two brands, you’d better be a great negotiator, because anything under 50 signifies that a brand is selling every car it can make.
For both Toyota and Lexus, this represents a huge amount of demand (they are great, popular cars) and also Toyota’s historic resistance to overbuilding at the risk of profits.
There are two obvious cars on the other end of the spectrum that you’ll notice. The first is Lincoln at 155 days. Lincoln, as a brand, had a strong 2024, thanks in part to the Lincoln Nautilus. Unfortunately for the brand, that car is made in China, and selling Chinese-built cars suddenly got a lot harder. This year, Lincoln has sold more Navigators, but Nautilus sales have dropped. In October, Nautilus’ sales plummeted 28.5% year-over-year.
Is this demand or supply? It’s probably both, as Cars.com shows a lot of cars which, matched to slowing sales, probably result in the increase. I think this means it’s a good time to make a deal at a Lincoln dealer on anything that isn’t a new Navigator.
Jeep, too, has a lot of cars, and this is probably some of both as well. Cox says that inventory for Cherokee, Compass, and Wrangler rose this month:
Looking at mainstream brands, recent inventory trends reveal that some manufacturers may be edging toward overstocked territory as consumer demand shifts. Cadillac’s days’ supply surged by 15% from a month earlier, signaling a potentially risky buildup if sales don’t keep up. Jeep’s situation is even more pronounced, with a 24% jump in days’ supply and a 13% increase in inventory, driven by models like the Cherokee, Compass and Wrangler, putting the brand at a high-water mark for 2025 and close to having more vehicles than the market might absorb.
For low-volume brands, Porsche’s inventory level rose 12%, a substantial increase that could lead to excess supply if demand softens. Even Mazda and Mercedes-Benz, with slower sales, are accumulating more vehicles on their lots, which may force them to rethink their strategies if these trends continue. Bottom line? Automakers are walking a fine line, and rising inventories could quickly shift from strategic flexibility to a liability if stock outpaces sales momentum.
If you are thinking about buying a car soon, I’d just look at this chart, and it’ll give you a reasonable idea of who may or may not be willing to deal.
Audi… Boy, I Don’t Know
I often wonder if there was someone at Audi HQ these last few years going: Yeah, yeah, all of this makes sense. What if we never changed anything important, made a bunch of also-ran electric vehicles, and just completely lost sight of what made us special?
Audi seems to sort of get it and is nodding towards getting its act back together. Unfortunately, the one source of consistent income for the company was selling Audi Q5s in the United States. Because that vehicle is built in Mexico and isn’t even USMCA-compliant, it’s sort of a disaster for the company. There goes any real possibility of a profit.
The solution for that would be to build a plant in the United States, but it’s not clear that Volkswagen can afford that right now, at least according to recent reports rounded up by Automotive News:
Volkswagen Group’s supervisory board has postponed the approval of its multi-billion-euro investment package, the German newspaper Bild reported, citing several sources from within the automaker.
The delay casts a shadow over future planning for new models and capital expenditure across its nearly 100 global plants.
Projects such as a potential Audi factory in the U.S. will be difficult to realize because the capital for it is not available, Bild reported.
VW has a financing gap of about €11 billion for investments for next year alone, Bild said.
The investment market is full-on shook right now, so raising all that money may not be as easy as it was a few years ago.
Who Is The Mazda EV For?
Mazda famously sold one of the most unlikely and unusable electric cars in the form of the super-low range, expensive MX-30. The company sells a RWD Mazda 6 EV in Europe, but it’s China-built, so that’s a nonstarter here.
The company has been testing a version of its EV in California, and Automotive News has the spy shots:
The body of the engineering prototype is a downsized version of the flagship CX-90 crossover.
The midsize EV could be unveiled as early as 2027 and go on sale in 2028. While EV adoption rates have slowed considerably in the U.S., the market remains Mazda’s biggest and most profitable.
Mazda declined to comment on specific future product programs but said its U.S. R&D team conducts routine testing of technologies and features that will help the company continue to provide the best experiences for customers.
More hybrids and, sure, maybe make an EV. I hope it’s good, but I don’t see how Mazda can make it affordable.
Ineos, Woof, JLR, Double Woof
I’m definitely in the bag for Land Rover. I am an admirer of the new Defender and was glad to see the company was on its way to a profitable year… until that pesky Cyberattack. And tariffs. Always tariffs.
The Range Rover maker said Friday its profit margin for the full year could now be entirely wiped out, having previously targeted as high as 7%. It now expects free cash burn of as much as £2.5 billion ($3.3 billion), after previously aiming for little change.
The company, owned by India’s Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd., slumped to a loss after tax of £559 million for the three months through September, compared to a profit a year earlier, in part due to £196 million of costs related to the hack.
How are things over at Ineos, which makes the Defender that doesn’t look like the new Defender but kind of like the old one? Per The Guardian, not great either:
The carmaker owned by the billionaire industrialist Jim Ratcliffe will make hundreds of job cuts across the company’s global workforce as his heavily indebted empire comes under increasing pressure.
Ineos Automotive did not specify an exact number of losses from its 1,700-strong workforce, saying only that it would shed “several hundred” head office staff across multiple locations, including the UK and parts of Europe.
The company owned by Ratcliffe, who also co-owns Manchester United, said the “strategic measures to structure its business” would help to simplify its head office and improve efficiency.
Building cars is hard.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
David was very excited to tell me that Hilary Duff has a new song called “Mature.” I will always stan a fellow Houston kid who grew up in the ’80s. [Ed Note: Hilary Duff was my first celeb-crush when I was about…13. -DT]
The Big Question
You have $45,000 to buy a single new car. What are you getting?
Top photo: DepositPhotos.com for the dealership, Stock.Adobe.com for the guys
Some are going to say Miata is always the answer, but I propose a 2nd option to the Miata, a new GTI of whatever flavor you want-S, SE, Autobahn. Don’t waste your money on a Golf R. I’ve had both in the MK7 flavor, and the GTI was just as good for a lot less money. I might be a little biased based on my username, but the GTI will always leave a smile on your face.
I guess the question is, would I just the 45k to replace the van, or to have a 3rd car in the family? Hmmmmmmmm.
New? Damnit, lol.
If I were replacing my van, I guess I would just buy a slightly better equipped Pacifica? Seems a little silly. 45k is basically base model van these days.
A third car? I would probably buy a 2-door Cooper S. BRG with a tan interior please.
Hmmm….45,000 loonies, huh?
A fairly basic Mazda 3 sedan to replace the one I have runs about $33k (tax in). I could probably go ritzier there, if I can’t spend this mythical budget elsewhere, but I find the value proposition gets worse on the upper trim models, aside a few features that would fall into the ‘kinda nice, but whatever’ category.
The turbo engine/AWD combo would be over the budget ($48k), so I’d be limited to the base 2.5L engine regardless.
The Mazda3 Sport hatchback would have the six-speed as an option and would get closer to the full budget ($43.5k), but the hatch looks worse than the sedan IMO (D-pillar area is ungainly) and the massive D-pillar destroys visibility. It was a knock against it when I was looking the last time. The sedan is much better, visibility wise.
A base model Civic goes for about $36k (tax in). Same with the Mazda, the upper trims would kind of be a waste, but would use up more of the budget.
A Civic Hybrid is showing for $42.5k. That seems interesting.
So, pretty much it would come down to a well optioned Mazda3 sedan (but not top trim) or a Civic Hybrid.
Man, that loon just does not have the purchasing power it used to.
The Mazda3 hatch is a real form over function situation. I think they look really attractive, and the design is very unique…but the interior packaging makes a GTI look like an E Class wagon. Hell there’s significantly more room in my Kona N, which is slightly smaller than a GTI on the inside.
They’re effectively coupes. If you can make it work I do think they’re neat little cars but they’re quite small.
My idealistic $45k new vehicle would be the Crown Signia, as it ticks nearly every box for me.
Realistically, I’m not spending $45k on anything anytime soon, and were I to buy something new today, it would probably be a hybrid version of the Corolla or Corolla Cross (the closest thing they make to a hybrid hatchback version of the Corolla).
I really like the Ineos products, but I just don’t see enough (any, really) of them on the road to be optimistic of the brand’s long-term survival.
You think you could get a Crown Signa for $45k all in?
That is about MSRP for the XLE trim. The next trim up (Limited I think) is around $50k.
of course the only pop culture David knows is Hillary Duff.
“You have $45,000 to buy a single new car. What are you getting?”
Assuming I’m not going to get hit in the ass with the “dealer markup” paddle, a GR Corolla just feels right.
I think those days are over. You would be happy. 🙂
The tariffs our government put on giant red bows really kills Lexus dealers around the holidays.
If I had space in my driveway, I’d get the Miata with the manual transmission as a fun car. But there’s nothing out there for <$45K new that even remotely excites me.
There are probably only a couple of others here that share my affection for the Mazda MX-30. I’ve never sat in, let alone driven one, nor have I ever owned an EV before. All I’ve done is read a lot of reviews and watch a lot of videos. Yes, the short range is THE problem for most, especially in light of its original MSRP (in other markets, you can have an MX-30 with a gas-powered range extender, like David’s i3s). The MX is based on/related to Mazda’s CX-30, which is itself basically a lifted Mazda 3 (both excellent cars). Mazda only sold about 600 (I think) MX-30s, all in/around CA AFAIK.
The fact that a car w/only 100ish miles of range is OK for my needs makes the MX-30 potentially appealing. If I haven’t bought something else by the time these drop a few more grand down to $10K used, I’m going to have to seriously consider one.
$45K on something new right now? Gee… I dunno. I scrolled down the list of all brands doing business here in 2025 at https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/advice/car-brands-available-in-america and (sadly) neither Lucid nor Rivian offers anything nearly that cheap… maybe Rivian’s R3X will be an actual thing a couple years from now. 🙁 Same goes for Lotus. If I spent $45K on something from Alfa Romeo, it’d be worth half of what I paid in three years. 🙁 I don’t really want one, but it might be possible to get some non-fancy version of a BMW 2-series for $45K, but I don’t want the front-wheel-drive Mini-based one. I could get a nice Audi A3, but depreciation/iffy long-term reliability would be a turn-off (if the A3 came as a little wagon, I’d probably do it). So, for $45K today, it’s gonna hafta be something Japanese or South Korean for slower depreciation, long term reliability, and hopefully, some practicality mixed with at least a bit of driving pleasure.
Truck choice: Honda Ridgeline
Sportscar choice: Mazda Miata
EV choice: Hyundai Ionic 5 (XRT for the slight lift)
Car/crossover choice: Toyota Crown Signia
If I had 45k I’m buying the newest, lowest mileage land cruiser I can find. When I say land cruiser I mean the 200 series, the last real land cruiser. Not that crappy new one. Not that you could get one of those for 45k anyway. You can keep it and drive it and it will still be worth the majority of what you paid for it 5 years down the road. It’s extremely difficult to get upside down in one of those.
Is Audi…Boy, I don’t know referencing the West Wing? Remember when Martin Sheen’s opponent in his reelection campaign said ‘Crime. Boy, I don’t know.’ and Martin replied ‘Crime. Boy I don’t know Is when I decided to kick your ass’?
I just watched Die By Lightning on Netflix and Bradley Whitford made me reminisce the West Wing.
$45k car? New? We keep talking ourselves into and out of a Gladiator. Probably one of those assuming this is not my $45k.
Die by Lightning was way better than I expected going in, but getting Ron Swanson to be President was a highlight.
I miss the optimism both The West Wing and The American President inspired…
Agreed on all counts.
That was a great show.
Probably a Jeep Gladiator. My significant other wants one since it’s a Wrangler truck. The small bed is ideal for what we’d realistically use it for. They don’t have far to go and the local Jeep dealer is on the way. Handy considering it’ll likely need some time there to get sorted out.
Personally I always fall for the new religions. So I’ve joined the Kia Church of the Season of New Traditions.
For $45K I’m getting the most Wrangler or Bronco I can for my money.
You can get a reasonably well equipped brand new Bronco for that much
I am waiting for the R3X or the new Scouts so can I set the 45k aside until those come out? Maybe it will gain enough interest to fully pay for one of those if they do come out haha.
None of us do. Also, now I’m wondering how many West Wing references I’ve missed in TMD.
Probably a Camry or Crosstrek as it will do the job and if I want to resell it, it’ll hold it’s value quite nicely.
Many. Many references.
Toyota Rav4 GR Sport PHEV.
That is a neat little package isn’t it
100% It checks so many boxes. Perhaps the most important it being a unique offering; the only performance trim in its segment.
Could do a lot worse as an all-arounder
Oh, that’s a good choice! I totally forgot about those. 🙂
If you gave me $45,000 I’d throw it right into our mortgage or maybe a Roth. Now is not the time to be spending that much money unless you absolutely have to…but if I absolutely have to spend it on a car I’d get the wife the CX90 she wants. They all have money on their hoods and as a result $45,000 will get you a pretty well equipped one.
If I was to spend it on myself I guess maybe I’d get a CTR? My Kona is about to be paid off and probably does 90% of what the Civic can do anyway though. Any car that would genuinely excite me at this stage costs more than $45,000 new. I guess I could also just get the dad car over with and get a Passport.
“You have $45,000 to buy a single new car. What are you getting?”
Probably the fancy Prius. With the cash left I can perform my own badge engineering.
Also a good choice. Especially in that yellow they have. 🙂
I’m buying a Mazda Miata.
The Morning Dump at 12:15pm, it happens as you get older sometimes.
$45K? I don’t even know, I haven’t kept up. I have my GR Corolla so I’m pretty happy. Oooh maybe another one for rallycross!
Gotta up my metamucil.
I’m not the target market at all, but I I really liked the design of the Ineos in photos. Then I sat in one and looked it over at the Detroit Auto Show last year. The unique switchgear in the Ineos (not the stuff that was borrowed from BMW) felt cheaper than any car I can ever remember. That center stack was a real disappointment in person.
Also, I’d spend that $45k on a 35th Anniversary MX-5 Miata and give you back the change.
A used RV down by the river.
I endorse this answer.
I raise you a van down by the river it worked for Matt Foley
Just watched an SNL sketch on you tube. Chris Farley was funny. Maybe his cousin will end up in van down by the River Rouge. Probably not.
TBQ: a GR86. That’s all I need. I’ll save the rest.
If I had $45k for a new car: I’d save it.
With the few ups ups and many downs, I feel it’ll be better for an upcoming rainy day.
My current car runs, and it’s likely going to continue to be cheaper to keep it running. And, besides, I’ve never felt the need to spend that much on a new car.
To your point, I wouldn’t just go out and buy anything now for the heck of it. My spouse and I play the “What would we buy if one of our DDs was totaled?” game every couple of months, and the answer depends on which vehicle we’d replace.
A small EV to replace our short-range daily. A hybrid for the sedan we use for longer trips.
Can’t play that game with my spouse…she’d get a case of ‘new car fever’. hahaha
Oh, maybe a 2 door Bronco, but most likely something more practical like a hybrid of some sort. Had a small hybrid on last vacation and it was spunky and got 40 something mpg.
Good choice on HD for crush. She’s one of the few Disney kids to successfully transition to adulthood with dignity still intact.
I don’t think saving the $45k was an option. You have to buy a new car! The economy depends on you!
OTOH a new Matchbox car is technically a new car, right?
That is a smart move but not the game we are playing today.
The most I’ve ever spend on a car in nominal dollars was $24K a few years ago.
The most I’ve ever spent in inflation adjusted dollars was $44K back in 2003 when I was broke but only thinking of the monthly payments.