It feels a bit half-hearted to say that the EV market is about to get weird, mostly because it’s already become weird. Tax credits are gone, new choices are thinning a touch, nobody cares about the Cybertruck anymore, and used EVs are generally getting relatively cheap. Maybe too cheap for some owners’ liking, as several EVs failed to sell the other day on Cars & Bids.
See, Cars & Bids isn’t a normal used car classifieds site, it’s an auction site where bidders compete by throwing bands. When does it end? Sometimes it ends when one bidder runs out of Benjamins to swing around, but other times it ends when the last bid doesn’t hit reserve. Traditionally, cars at auction carry a reserve price, a secret floor price that the seller and auction company agree to. The amount’s not publicly disclosed, and if bidding crosses the mark, it’s game on. If bidding doesn’t reach the reserve price, the seller keeps the car. While a reserve prevents a seller from signing over a title while seeming unhappy about the sale price, multiple cars not reaching reserve is generally a sign of choppy waters ahead.
In this case, we have three late-model electric vehicles, all of which failed to meet reserve on Tuesday. While it seems the would-be buyers of these machines are out of luck, the fact that none of these things sold points toward a larger, emerging pattern in the marketplace.
Let’s start with the most popular car that failed to sell, a 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT. Sure, it’s in a great shade of Grabber Blue and only shows 5,051 miles on the clock, but it was a no-sale at a high bid of $31,500. The Carfax is clean, the car itself presents well, but even at 47.7 percent of sticker price, no dice. The market just didn’t bite the seller’s reserve.
Looking at comparable examples in the open marketplace, $31,500 seems about fair value. For instance, here’s a 2023 Mustang Mach-E GT with 6,822 miles on it listed for $31,416 in the same state as the Grabber Blue car. Sure, the lower mileage on the Cars & Bids example is worth something, but not enough to go above and beyond the five-percent buyer’s premium.
Next up, it’s a 2025 Lucid Air Touring, a posh dual-motor electric sedan rated for a bladder-busting 431 miles of range. It’s well-specced with $2,500 spent on upgraded advanced driver assistance, $3,000 spent on the Comfort and Convenience pack for niceties like window shades, soft-close doors, and a heated steering wheel, and $2,750 spent on massaging ventilated front seats. All-in, this electric luxury sedan cost its first owner $94,500 before tax, but one year and 8,400 miles later, it can’t bring in more than 56 percent of the original purchase price. The high bid came in at $53,500, and it simply didn’t meet reserve.
Admittedly, this one’s a bit hard to value considering it’s so recent and has such little mileage on it, but it’s historically not surprising that the market has spoken on previously listed examples. This highly-optioned 2023 Lucid Air Touring sold on Cars & Bids back in 2024 for $50,500 in a deal reached after the hammer dropped and the reserve wasn’t met. Sure, it had 17,500 miles on the clock, but supply was also tighter in 2024.
Finally, there’s this 2023 Rivian R1S Adventure Edition loaded up with the quad-motor setup and large battery pack. Even though Rivian’s R1 series of vehicles has received a significant tech update since 2023, these first-series quad-motor models are still unbelievably quick. Yet, with 19,800 miles on the clock, this one failed to hit its reserve with a high bid of $54,500. One commenter noted that this example was previously listed on the Rivian forums for $68,000, so is this just a case of a seller thinking their vehicle is worth more than it actually is?
Well, yeah, all of these are. While auctions—especially record-setting ones—aren’t always indicative of broader trends, they show what a set of buyers is willing to pay for a particular vehicle in a particular time period. You might see comparable examples listed for more on typical classified ad sites, but those are just asking prices. They aren’t necessarily indicative of final sale prices.
It’s no secret that we’ve moved into a relatively cool EV market. Models like the Ford F-150 Lightning, Volkswagen ID.Buzz, Kia EV4, and Chevrolet Brightdrop have either been put on hiatus, delayed, or cancelled altogether. Federal tax credits are gone, and at the same time, EV sentiment is weakening. According to AAA studies, in 2023, 25 percent of individuals surveyed said they were either likely or very likely to buy a battery electric vehicle. By 2025, that figure had dropped to 16 percent, while the number of undecided respondents fell from 24 percent to 21 percent. This last point is especially important for the second-hand market, because when it comes to selling quickly, desirability is pretty much everything.
At the same time, we’re about to see a flood of EVs in the secondhand marketplace. We’re now about three years removed from the December 2022 decision to apply a $7,500 federal tax credit to EV leases, and that had a profound effect on the EV market. While the proportion of new vehicles acquired on lease fell to near-record lows over the course of the chip shortage, this tax credit decision supercharged EV leases in 2023. According to JD Power, “Lease volumes for new EVs surged 355% throughout 2023.” With an average lease term historically hovering around 36 months, we’re very much in a buyer’s market for second-hand EVs. Expect pricing to respond accordingly.
Are these no-sales exclusively an EV phenomenon? No. Pretty much every day, a variety of cars fail to sell on digital auction platforms for a variety of reasons. Maybe the car itself is relatively unpopular, maybe the example itself isn’t that nice, maybe a particular seller’s expectations just aren’t realistic. However, with these recent EVs in particular, there appears to be a pattern and credible data to support falling prices. The next few years are going to be a great time to buy a second-hand EV, and if you already own a battery-powered vehicle, maybe just hold onto it. It’s perfectly good everyday transportation, and the longer you hold onto it and drive it, the less painful potential losses may be.
Top graphic image: Cars & Bids
Is it the car, the price or the forum?
Because they’re selling on BAT.
THIS is your reserve price, and THIS* is your Cars & Bids result.
*much lower number
Occasionally an email from Lucid will make it thru the spam filter, last one had a long list of lease returns they were selling off. It was a pretty wide range of options and a surprisingly narrow band of asking prices. Almost all were in the low to mid 50s, even the big battery dual motor examples… Not sure how many folks would pay more to buy from an auction site.
So the sellers are setting the reserve too high? That’s all that needed to be said for anything not selling.
I understand the idea, especially for high-value items that might not be seen by enough of the target market…but fundamentally, reserve prices SUCK. They monkey with the market.
You know, just like that sweet $7,500 the sellers originally pocketed, and are now probably upset that it disappeared into thin air because the expected discount is now baked into the value of the cars.
MSRP on anything during the rebate era should be taken with a grain of salt, on top of unpredictable depreciation curved, spotty reliability (Mach-E), and very thin dealer and service networks (Lucid and, to a much lesser degree, Rivian).
As I predicted 10+ years ago, as soon a big brand like GM, VW, or Ford set their mind to it, they could dominate. So far GM is winning that bet, it just took a while for them to come around.
EV market supply is plentiful, I don’t know why anyone would pay C&B a commission on one of these vehicles, sight unseen, and pay to have it shipped with no guarantees backing the condition. Well, other than the prospect of getting a steal.
All three examples ended up right about where they should be, price wise. The Rivian I could see going a little higher.
I think these sellers just aren’t paying attention. This Summer I bought an off lease EV with crazy low miles for just above 1/2 the MSRP, and it does feel like a steal. But I think the market for daily driver EVs is small enough that it pushed the used market lower than owners expect.
Doesn’t seem terribly specific. If you look at closed auctions, it seems like at least 1/3 overall are RNM.
My favorite thing on these auction sites is when a vehicle doesn’t sell because it didn’t meet reserve, and people discuss how what it had reached was a pretty fair price, and then the seller says something along the lines of, “Not really, it wasn’t anywhere near market value.” Um…. my guy… are you unaware what market value is? Because what you just found out is that your price was way above it.
Well you see… my “nuh-uh!” is just as good – if not better than – your extensive analysis and computations!
That’s partially why I dislike KBB and similar; people treat them as bibles. Possibly a lot of overlap with people who think mods add value.
I mean, certain mods absolutely can. Look at conversion vans, Quigley 4×4 vans, etc.
That’s a fair point, but I think Lotsofchops was referring to the people who put on aftermarket suspension and wheels and think that does anything other than REDUCE the value of the vehicle.
It also completely defeats the purpose of an auction. If the sites take risk away from the sellers by allowing them to set reserves anywhere near market value it simply acts to inflate prices. Part of an auction is that depending on the market there’s a chance of either the seller or the buyer getting a great deal.
I don’t see how an auction platform can reflect the market price because when I bid, I keep in mind that I have to pay the buyer fee if I win, so I only bid up to an amount where bid + fees <= market price.
I definitely won’t bid the same price as what I would pay at a used car dealer.
Yes. To all of these examples.
Good thing you get paid by the word, though.
Lmao
To me this looks like the car market is going back to normal.
And what is normal?
It’s when a vehicle’s value is about half of the new vehicle cost after 3 years… maybe a little more if it has low miles, a little less if it has higher miles.
But that’s on average. Toyota’s will always have a the Toyota Tax. Similar deal with Hondas
But other brands like Ford, Hyundai and Kia generally have had lower used vehicle values.
These days, I’d say it’s more like 5 years to reach half value, but 3 years for certain brands or types (higher-end luxury cars, EVs, etc).
I used to say 4 years because that was what NADA’s average was, but with more, older cars on the road I think the market is more reasonable with a flatter depreciation curve. Not great for used buyers, though. I’m just glad the world stopped pretending cars turn to dust at exactly 100k miles.
Yeah this is just how it used to be pre-covid. Cars used to lose a substantial fraction of their value the moment they rolled off the lot. Hopefully it goes back to being more like that. Pretty tired of seeing 10 year old cars selling for what was probably 75% of MSRP when they were new.
Team, I hate to be the one to bring up the editorial issues, but there are a couple of things here that totally lost me. The first is gibberish and the second is (I think) the literal opposite of the intended meaning:
“bidders compete by throwing bands”
I think “hands?” Although some sort of carnival ring toss would be a neat way to determine who takes home a car…
“Rivian’s R1 series of vehicles has received a significant tech update since 2023”
That’s gotta be “hasN’T,” right?
I can help a little with the first item…. “band” is slang for $1000.
“Bandz a Make Her Dance” is a trap song from 2012.
Both seem correct. “Bands” is a colloquialism, and seems a bit out of place here, but is what it is. The Rivian models have gotten a tech update, so that seems accurate, if a bit wordy. I’d have probably written it as “In 2023 Rivian’s R1 series [or just R1T and R1S] received a significant technology update.”
Colloquialisms only work for those who know what it means. To every one else…it’s a foreign language. A good writer avoids slang and all such things, unless it’s fiction.
Totally disagree, the writers of this site use plenty of off-beat references and slang, which brings personality and a little zazz.
and “zazz” means…?
Is zazz similar to the rizz? Asking for a friend!
You know, “zazz.”
This guy gets it.
Without the little embellishments, I’d be asking the writers to put these blogs on the Zazztrain to Zazzville.
See link from AssMatt, below.
I agree, writers should make their writing more timeless and approchable.
Approachable? Maybe.
Timeless? This is a blog about EV auctions.
I deliberately used “more” as a modifier. Not expecting Shakespeare (though even that is different now than when it was written, of course), but using a phrase that can come and go from the faddy vernacular in a matter of weeks or months or so doesn’t make for strong writing.
Is this an electric vehicle I see before me?
The steering wheel toward my hand. Come, let me clutch thee. I have thee not, and yet I see thee still have not yet met the reserve price.
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow,
Cheap in this petty price from day to day
To the last dollar and recorded dime;
And all our EVs have lighted fools
To depreciation. Out, out, brief LED!
lol
Thomas does get slangier than the rest. As a regular reader, I should have known that and looked it up, but drop-in readers wouldn’t see it coming.
Have you read anything by Torch lately? Half the fun is parsing the references and unusual turns-of-phrase.
Rivian made a huge update a couple years back, maybe ’24? No real appearance updates, but quite a lot under the skin.
No, the sentence on the Rivian is correct. The model we’re looking at is a 2023. Trying to find reasons why it would be valued less, we find out that the R1 received a substantial update in 2024, thus likely lowering values of the 2023 model we’re looking at. “Why is a 2023 Rivian R1 worth less than a newer one, beyond just age? Oh, Rivian’s R1 series of vehicles received a significant tech update in 2024.”
Good Note. Makes sense. Thanks.
Replying to myself to say “the comments made clear what the article did not and I retract my criticism.”
Nah, your og comment was spot on, and I second it, just because typos are so common on this site that my brain always defaults to those when I read something here that doesn’t make sense, like “throwing bands”.
Proofreading is a lost art, apparently.
You know, you could care less!!!
Care less? Probably. Comment less? Inarguably.
2023 got complicated for the EV tax credit, but bear in mind most of these cars got at least $3500 in tax credits, if not the full $7500 credit.
When I bought my 2022 Mach-E GT (identical to the one in the image), sticker price was $65k, but I got $7500 back in the federal tax credit and a $2500 check from my state, so it was effectively a $55k car.
That’s still pretty steep depreciation, but not quite as bad. None of it bothers me as the car is great and I have no plans to get rid of it for the next 5+ years anyway.
Large scale data aggregation sets the market price for late model used cars. And why would I buy one online at market price when there are plenty in my area from which I can choose. C&B ought to stick to truly collectible cars.
It could be a weird time in general.
Set aside the hostile market in the US for a moment. There are significant improvements to battery tech on the horizon. Buying something that’s off lease, but still kinda pricey might not seem like the best choice when better tech might show up while you’re still making loan payments. It’s the main reason I’m leasing the vehicle I have now. I fairly certain it’ll be outdated in a couple years, and I’d like to make a easier switch at that time. I’d just don’t think I’d consider used right now, unless I was looking at the bottom of the market where older battery tech doesn’t matter as much.
Why are we selling new-ish EVs on C&B? Just take it to the local dealer and trade it in, it’s not like there’s a shortage of Mach-Es, Lucids, or Rivians. Anyone who wants one can just go and buy one, and if you’re shopping used you want a discount, not the C&B tax.
Yeah, exactly.
I mean, would their trade-in prices be anything close to what they might have netted from C&B? I get shooting for the moon if you think it’s in brilliant condition.
Or just sell it private party with your reserve as the asking price. Mostly I don’t understand why C&B allows it—do they also allow 2024 Yukon Denalis and Lexus RX 500hs? edit: apparently they do. What makes these particular EVs special enough to get onto the platform so early into their lifespan?
I’m not anti-EV or anything, I just don’t understand why easily purchasable modern vehicles are being sold on a niche auction site which is intended to connect enthusiasts with hard-to-find models. Are they still riding on the basis from when these vehicles were new and in short supply?
My guess is that these people bringing their EVs to C&B was a result of getting an awful trade value and suffering the first stage of grief.
Denial.
Their response to their EV not hitting reserve is going to be anger. The result is going to be bargaining. Followed by some severe depression realizing that they just spent 40k to drive a cutting edge EV 6k miles. Finally resulting in acceptance when they just hold on to the damn thing, or you know, take a bath on it.
I’d buy a car on C&B over a dealership, due to my state (AZ) not having sales tax on private party vehicles. On top of that, It is nice to see that enthusiasts of said car are looking at it with a fine tooth comb.
Right, but at the same time these are newish cars, they’re generally not going to be that run-through. I’m sure you can find a Craigslist Lucid or Rivian for much cheaper if you’re willing to do a bit of effort yourself, and you don’t have to deal with cross-country shipping since it’s unlikely a C&B car will be near you.
Not sure if the MachE fits the mold but this looks like the Rivian and Lucid are just getting the double whammy of luxury depreciation like high-end ICE cars plus the higher EV depreciation and the sellers just haven’t set reasonable expectations (I know what I got).
My guess is those sellers had local offers at the reserve and when the cars failed to sell they had a check from Carmax, etc in hand in a couple of hours
Auction sites may be a good way to sell a 50 year old classic that is hard to price (although my friend who bought a Classic Jag with 250 pictures, which strategically did not show the serious rust issues and was told by Bring a Trailer to pound sand would disagree), but for late model cars my experience is local dealers make a better choice.
I considered selling a 2 year old car on Bring a Trailer and they wanted a low reserve. When I told them I had higher offers than their proposed reserve from Carmax, Carvana AND Autonation they offered to set the reserve at the highest offer. At the end of the day, I sold locally as the historical sales on the site were less than my local offer and I didn’t like the BaT terms (they send you the winning bidders contact info and everything is up to you – if the buyer wants to pay in rolled up quarters, that’s ok, as payment method is up to the seller). I decided the “service” they offered wasn’t worth the hassle vs walking out with a check in an hour from one of the other services
An EV that old with mileage that low makes me wonder what it was about the vehicle that didn’t meet the buyer’s needs.
Or people who bought them and thought they could flip them for a profit.
Fun through rocket sled acceleration.Range anxiety is really in people’s heads.Modernize your home for the 21st century. Get 240VElectric bill might have gone up a little, your gasoline bill went down tremendously.yes
Or, they’ve already bought or are planning to buy the latest and greatest.
As an EV owner myself, I look at these cars like cellphones around 2009 when there were frequent advances in tech every year.
My 3 year lease on my Volvo XC40 (now EX40) is up in November and the number of SUVs available now is freaking impressive. I’m really looking forward to the new Volvo EX60, BMW IX3 and Rivian R2.
Having shopped the Mach E GT, I did see quite a few with lemon law buybacks for sale super cheap. I wonder if it had been in the shop for those issues and got fixed before lemon law would take effect. I think the issues had been with the adjustable suspension and one circuit board, but it has been some time since I was doing that research.
Ford’s recent reliability and recall issues extend to most if not all of their line up. The reason for the Mach E not being on the list when we we’re car shopping.
Yeah, I ruled it out because of the screen-based controls, but the reliability certainly didn’t help its case.
I mean, these are all just used cars now, so yeah, I’d expect less interest on that kind of platform. I don’t know why I’d go through the hassle of spending a week bidding on something that I may not even get in the end because the reserve hasn’t been met when I could just go on Carvana and buy the thing and have it here in 48 hours or less.
To the sellers placing hilariously high reserves and not reaching them: womp womp
Right now sales prices for used TVs sort of remind me of when I was a kid.
You could walk into a record store and pay 4 bucks for a new album.
Or you could dig through the used bin and possibly score a used version for a buck.
I do know when I buy my first not total ice car, it will be a hybrid though.
I don’t know what changes the resale value for EVs at this point. I am certain more than a few factors come into play. Battery replacement cost has to be a big thought in some minds. Serviceability and access to service. Actual service life of said vehicle. Insurance. And the list grows.
But I do venture to add that the top 1% are still burning cash like the party will never end. While the rest of us arresting extra value meals on the regular nowadays.
In fact there’s a lot of evidence that the super rich are the main reasons our economy remains strong. At least as far as investments in the markets are concerned.
BTW I still have 90% of any albums I ever owned.
But only about 20 cassettes.
And zero eight tracks survived the great clean up of 1996…
While some people are certainly concerned about battery replacement, I think the biggest thing for potential EV buyers is the thought that the next big advancement is around the corner. Toyota has been saying they’re super close on affordable solid state batteries. Donut claims to have made something game-changing. And Lucid shows that really long range EVs are already possible, so some people are just waiting for that jump that makes them affordable.
As others have mentioned electrical pricing has also gone up for a lot of folks. For me the EV rate is $0.34-$0.62 kWh!
That is also a fair point. I’m in the land of cheap hydropower, so I am fairly insulated from those changes and don’t even think about that.
Enjoy it while you can. Datacenters are coming for your cheap hydropower:
“One tangible example of this opportunity highlighted below is a midwestern hydro facility, where a flexible computing deployment utilized over 43% of the hydropower created in 2024, while producing topline revenues of $86.22 per megawatt hour, or 257% more than the $24.14 earned by selling into this grid.”
https://hydro.org/powerhouse/article/how-hydro-and-data-centers-are-pairing-to-create-unique-value/
https://apnews.com/article/electricity-prices-data-centers-artificial-intelligence-fbf213a915fb574a4f3e5baaa7041c3a
Absolutely. Facebook is already building one that just hasn’t gone live yet. I suspect others will also capitalize on the opportunity.
I’m also in the land of hydropower and it has gone from ~13 to ~18 cents per kwh in the last 3 years. :/
That’s a national issue directly attributable to all the AI servers going in everywhere. Direct your anger appropriately.
Oh PG&E has been hiking prices for a LOOOONG time:
https://pgeratehikes.com
The Orange One’s burn’n-pillage administration’s cancellation of billions of clean power projects (some of which had already been paid for, some almost completed) while heavily subsidizing more expensive fossil-fuelled power generation is certainly not helping with electricity price increases.
You can afford extra value meals? Congrats, man. User name checks out!
You won’t own the car when the issue of battery replacement comes up. That’s many hundreds of thousands of miles down the road.
Except that I keep my cars for at least 300K miles…So maybe?
And I don’t want to haggle with someone when it’s time to trade or sell it and someone tried to complain about how much the battery has already degraded…
I bought a used 2023 Tesla in June 2025 because it fit my needs and had already depreciated 50% in 2 years. I knew I probably wasn’t catching the bottom, but I needed another car and planned to hold onto it for a while.
I’d be wary of owning a Rivian or Lucid even if the purchase price is low enough because of their short track record, potential business implosion, and rarity approaching exotic car levels.
I like Rivian, but am weary for all those reasons; and the potential for totaling my vehicle with a shopping cart incident in a busy parking lot.
“I like Rivian, but am weary for all those reasons;”
Well if you are weary, then maybe all you need is to take a nap… which is the common fix for weariness.
Hopefully you’re not wary of taking my advice…
😉
I’ve already had one nap today, and am about to take another. This winter weather has me DOWN….
I did similar in June but went further back to a 2020 Tesla S and it was in the mid-60% depreciation range. It’ll fall farther but it was a price point I was happy with.
As much as I like what Rivian and Lucid make (especially the Air), they do worry me about support long term. I went with an S which was at the end of it’s generation (Raven) so the big issues are known and have OE, aftermarket, and community support so it’s more likely to stay running.
The 2023 Mach-E isn’t a surprise. Not only are there comparable examples out there for the range of the high bid, but 2024 examples, with higher output and quicker 0-60 times, are available for very little more money. I picked up a 2024 Mach-E with 8,200 miles in November; sticker was $50,800 and I paid $27,100 including Ford’s CPO warranty. I would say that these no-sales are a seller problem, not a buyer problem.
Sounds like some sellers who “know what they’ve got” and won’t take a penny less than what they think it’s worth. I mean, if I knew I could go buy a Mach E for the bid price of the auction and it still hadn’t hit reserve, I’d be out too. I’m surprised C&B even allowed a reserve that high.
C&B is way against reserves. I think they’ve in general allowed more auctions than they used to, simply to keep their revenue stream up.
Exactly, seems like C&Bs should have passed on these auctions, as the sellers weren’t aligned with the market. Yeah depreciation sucks; but when you buy something that immediately takes a $7,500 value hit before it’s even sold (because that what these discounts were doing) you should expect the worst.
I’ve noticed more units not meeting reserve on C&B too. I’d like to know their business model – if the seller pays no listing fee what’s in an unrealistic reserve for C&B other than web traffic? I think the practice will damage the brand – why bid, nothing sells…
I have no inside information, but based on general business practices these days, I would put money on the answer being “short-term profits”.
I know what I got!
Why don’t YOU know what I got?!?!
This doesn’t feel like it’s that indicative of anything other than sellers hoping to get more than they are going for and perhaps that auctions aren’t a great place to sell them. Those bids got about as high as I would expect for those vehicles. Anyone who doesn’t already know about EV depreciation might be shocked, but I’m guessing these sellers had done some research and then decided that they’d get more than normal market values.
I’d love to know how much they thought they’d get out of them.
Also, is auction the best way to sell a late-model vehicle that isn’t in particularly high demand or limited supply? Rivians and Mach Es are pretty common. The Lucid is less common, but that’s a function of the price more than actual scarcity.
That’s all it is. Sellers hoping to make a killing.