The concept that Americans would suddenly buy more electric cars on a steepening curve was one that made little sense when considered alongside the realistic limits on EV ownership. This problem was made worse by the hype, which encouraged automakers to launch a bunch of overlapping models. It’s a water-water-everywhere situation, with a market that’s been flooded by electric cars that few people want to drink/buy. At the same time, there’s surprisingly little choice in the electric car space.
AAA released another annual survey of buyers, and fewer people are interested in electric cars than at any point in the last few years. Some of the reasons why are entirely reasonable, though the biggest concern doesn’t make as much sense to me.
Would you like a hybrid? The Morning Dump will continue to bang the hybrid drum. Both the specter of tariffs and the desirability of hybrid vehicles have propelled Hyundai and Kia to a strong May. You know who did even better? Ford! Ford sales were up massively year-over-year. Will tariffs imperil those gains? Will Ford shy away from electric vehicles? Maybe. The company’s Vice Chairman John Lawler gave a long interview last week and he says the company has a plan for both.
The ascendency of YouTubers continues, this time with a rumor that a certain YouTube celebrity might go racing full-time for the potential RAM return to NASCAR. That would be cool.
62% Of Americans Are Worried About High Battery Repair Costs
There are so many practical reasons why many Americans would not want to own an electric car, but battery repair costs aren’t something that I considered to be a huge issue. Is it expensive to replace a battery pack? Absolutely. Is it something most EV purchasers will have to do frequently? Probably not.
AAA is out with its latest survey measuring EV purchasing intent, and the interest in buying new electric cars is starting to fall as consumers take a look at what’s actually available for purchase. This is a bad sign for EVs. Usually, when more car models in a particular class hit the market, it’s a sign that demand is rising quickly. While it’s possible more EVs are sold again this year, it’s not likely to be a huge increase unless gas prices rise dramatically.
According to AAA’s survey, only 16% of potential consumers are either “likely” or “very likely” to purchase an EV, the lowest rate since 2019. Maybe equally as bad, 63% of respondents now say they’re either “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to buy an electric car.
What’s going on?
High battery repair costs (62%) and purchase price (59%) are cited as key barriers to go fully electric. Other top concerns identified in this year’s survey were the perceived unsuitability of EVs for long-distance travel (57%), a lack of convenient public charging stations (56%), and fear of running out of charge while driving (55%). Thirty-one percent of those undecided or unlikely to buy an EV have safety concerns, 27 percent reported challenges installing charging stations at their residences, and 12% cited the potential reduction or elimination of tax credits and rebates.
A few things to digest here, and most of them make sense to me.
Electric cars are too expensive. With few exceptions, hybrid or gas cars are generally more affordable than their EV counterparts. Some of this is the underlying costs associated with the development of completely new types of automobiles and battery material/construction costs. A lot of this is the industry’s fault. Rather than focus on offering affordable EVs, car companies clearly hoped to be able to more quickly amortize the development of EVs by appealing to the market that Tesla created. This was the wrong approach.
There are too many expensive two- and three-row crossover premium SUVs and not enough small, affordable electric cars. The success of the Honda Prologue and Chevy Equinox EV, to me, shows that there are customers at the right price point.
All the range-related concerns are legitimate as well. Public charging has gotten much better, and fast-charging has dramatically improved in just the last 18 months. While most people don’t regularly take long road trips, Americans hate to compromise on capability. It’s why so many people own trucks and rarely carry out tasks that couldn’t just as easily be accomplished with a Corolla.
I’d love to have an electric car, and I think roughly half the market could switch over to EVs and be quite happy. The inability to charge at home is real, though, and I live in a place where I cannot easily charge overnight. For me, that’s basically a deal-breaker.
Car battery replacement? It’s strange to me that this is the biggest issue. Yes, a battery pack is usually the single most expensive part of an electric car, but so is an engine. While early electric cars did have battery pack degradation issues, many owners got free batteries under extended warranties. With smarter charging protocols and improved battery health monitoring, it seems like batteries are keeping a decent percentage of their total range as they age. For instance, Recurrent says only about 1.5% of EVs they monitor have needed a replacement:
Car batteries are the same sort of battery as those found in your phone or laptop, but they are designed, built, and maintained so that they last. We generally see 1-2% range degradation per year, with slightly faster degradation over the first 50,000 miles as the car settles into its long term state.
Even at the more extreme 2% end of the spectrum, that’s a vehicle with 80% of its capacity after 10 years.
The other irony of electric car demand is that the more people buy electric cars and hybrids, the lower the demand for gasoline. The lower the demand for gasoline, historically, the lower the prices. The lower gasoline prices get, the less attractive EVs and hybrids seem to people.
Ford Sales Up 16.3%, Hyundai/Kia Up As May Was Another Strong Month For Car Sales
I was all ready to write about how Hyundai and Kia continue to have strong months by selling affordable cars with a mix of powertrains (ICE, EV, BEV, PHEV), and then Ford plopped a huge number on the table. This May, Ford’s sales increased by a whopping 16.3% compared to last May.
What moved? The full roll-out of the F-150 certainly helped, with an improvement of 14.9% compared to last May (or more than 10,000 more trucks). Ford continues to sell Broncos at a rate that implies the purchase of one of the SUVs will make all the hair relocate from your lower torso back up to the top of your head. The new Expedition and redesigned Ranger helped, also.
Hybrids? Yup. Hybrids are still popular, with sales up 28.9% year-over-year, presumably led by the Escape, Maverick, and F-150 hybrids. Electric cars are mostly down, although the Mach-E had another good month. The Lincoln brand continues to grow as well, jumping by 39% thanks to a new Navigator (that frankly looks amazing).
This isn’t to slight Kia. The brand was already high-fiving angels last year, and this May’s increase of 5% is as much a measure of the current product mix as the ongoing popularity of the brand. Personally, I would credit the success of the Carnival Hybrid for all of the brand’s growth, but it’s the attractive and reasonably priced K5 that makes up most of the increase. The EV9 took a massive hit from 2200 vehicles to just… 37. Why? The guess around here is that the switchover from CCS to NACS charging ports might be a part of the delay, especially since the SUV is built in the United States.
Hyundai was also up, and the single biggest sales winner was the Hyundai Venue. Sales for the affordable little Hyundai were up 74% year-over-year, which makes sense as it’s one of the cheapest cars for sale right now (about $23k out the door).
Is there a tariff impact? Probably. Ford has been doing employee pricing alongside Stellantis, trying to quickly move cars that are not impacted by the tariffs as it hopes to make up some market share. Will this negatively impact the company’s bottom line, though? I think so. Ford’s Q1 revenue dropped about 5% while its net income dropped from $1.3 billion to just $500 million. Obviously, May sales are in Q2, but heavy discounting doesn’t usually correspond with an increase in margin.
Eventually, though, all of these companies will face varying tariff impacts. Buyers, being thoughtful, are rushing to get deals before cars get potentially a lot more expensive.
Hyundai and Kia kept prices static in May as well, but we’ll see what happens later this month.
Ford Thinks It Has An Idea Of How To Lessen Tariff Impacts
Of all the automakers selling cars in the United States with any volume, Ford is probably the best positioned to weather tariffs. About 80% of the cars it sells in the United States are built here, and more are built within the USMCA zone. Still, the company today said it expects a $1.5 billion earnings decline due to tariffs and suspended its own guidance for the year.
Vice Chairman of the company John Lawler talked to analyst Daniel Roeska at a conference, and I thought this was interesting, via the Detroit Free Press:
“We’re continuing to leverage our competitive advantage in our footprint to try to identify opportunities for us over the next 12 to 24 months where we can take advantage of the shifting environment,” Lawler said.
Lawler did not provide specifics on what Ford is doing to leverage its competitive advantage, but when asked whether he believed Ford could take action that would reduce the impact tariffs will have on the company’s costs, Lawler said yes.
“Part of that is when you look at the parts, pushing more of those parts to be USMCA-compliant, that’s a tack that we can take,” Lawler said. “We can onshore parts that aren’t onshored today, although a large percentage of our parts are. So those are different tactics that we can take working with the supply base to minimize some of that impact.”
The USMCA compliance issue is interesting. One of the positive outcomes of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was that for a company to be USMCA compliant, it had to meet certain labor standards, which is an especially important detail with regard to Mexican production. Raising the conditions and costs of labor in Mexico is good for Mexico and good for American workers, as it makes it harder to undercut them on price.
There was also some talk of “top line” adjustments, so expect some price increases as well.
And what of EVs?
Lawler said Ford’s long-term views on EVs has not changed despite any of those possibilities. He said the demand for EVs has softened in the past 12 to 18 months and Ford, along with the rest of the industry, has adjusted to that by reducing the cash it invests in EV development.
Something is brewing in California, and we’ll see it eventually.
Cleetus McFarland To NASCAR Trucks?
YouTube star/internet weirdo (in a good way) Cleetus McFarland already made quite the splash in the ARCA series, which is a first step towards NASCAR for many drivers. With rumors of RAM returning to NASCAR trucks, is it possible that McFarland could be one of the drivers?
According to Sports Business Journal, it’s not that crazy of an idea:
While McFarland has yet to detail his plans for next year, people familiar with the new Ram team’s plans have identified him as one of the potential drivers, suggesting he could graduate to the sport’s third division next year. A document viewed by SBJ listed McFarland as one of the names slated to be part of the program as a driver and brand ambassador. It was unclear if the document was final, and it’s possible that McFarland’s plans could change. It was unclear whether he’d run partially or full time. Nonetheless, the team is expected to lean on celebrity partnerships and potentially ownership to grow its presence quickly.
I mean… hell yeah!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I love Blondie. Just the way Debbie Harry says “Wall” and “Hall” in the first 20 seconds of this song is insane. It’s so New Jersey, and I absolutely love it. I can’t believe I missed the Talking Heads-Television-Blondie era of CBGB. Also, can you believe that “Heart of Glass” was only like the 5th single released from this album? Crazy. Also, this song was originally recorded by the Nerves, but I can’t imagine it without the Jersey girl accent.
The Big Question
Do you worry about battery degradation?
Top photo: Tesla/Duracell
I can’t blame people for worrying about battery replacement. It’s freaking expensive in a full EV, and before you say “well it doesn’t actually happen” allow me to remind you that the EIC here had to have a new battery put in his car after only 9 years. The only reason it worked out for him is that he lives in California now. And you can further argue that they’ve learned from their mistakes, but given the enshittification of everything in pursuit of maximum profits, I ask you: Have they? Modern car manufacturers are pretty notorious for building things just well enough to get through the warranty period.
And there’s an anecdata problem here too. I bet everyone has had a phone or laptop battery fail on them, often without a lot of warning. Battery degradation isn’t always a smooth slope. You and I know that EV batteries are much more carefully designed and maintained than a phone, but the underlying technology is pretty much the same and people are going to draw conclusions whether you want them to or not.
Then there’s this:
The problem is 10 years is table stakes. If your car requires a $30000 battery replacement after 10 years that is completely unacceptable. Also, 10 years is below the average age of a car in the US. The oldest Model S’s are just hitting the average at this point. Nobody knows what real world performance of EV batteries will be at 20 years because there aren’t really any large-scale examples, and nobody wants to be on the hook if it turns out that 2% statistic turns into 20% on that timescale.
I think it’s also worth noting that Prius batteries tend to die based more on age than miles. Taxis put crazy mileage on their batteries and do just fine, but a 15 year old Prius with only 80k on it is probably looking at a new battery in the next few years. There are enough old Prii running around that we have some idea where that cutoff is. The same can’t be said for EVs and if it turns out to be 15 years there too some people are in for some financial pain.
These fears may all turn out to be unfounded, but I don’t think they’re completely irrational either. An out-of-warranty EV battery replacement would be a crippling expense for most people.
Actually from what I’ve seen with Prius batteries needing replacement is because the fan to cool the battery gets dirty and stops working, causing the battery to heat more than normal.
David “it’s a good deal” Tracy buying the cheapest instance of an out of warranty, specialty BMW should not be looked towards as an indicator of how durable EV batteries are
I’d buy an EV, but so far none that meet my needs make financial sense for me, especially compared to not having a car payment on the ’08 Kia Rondo I use for my long-distance commute or my ’96 GMC Sonama “work truck”. The EV Silverado or F150 Lightning would be amazing to have, and allow me to go from two vehicles to one to meet all of my needs and wants, but not at $600+ per month + electricity + full coverage vs. $80 a month in liability insurance, $250-300 a month in gas + whatever usually negligible amount of gas I use in my ’96 Sonoma for Home Depot runs and such.
Maybe I’ll be able to make it work in a few years by getting one as a CPO, but I doubt it since Governor Hell On Wheels signed that stupid EV tax into law here in Texas.
I feel so so bad for Lucid and Rivian, they make cool, well built spaceships of a car.
My issue with EVs are
1) the ones that have the range I’d need are too expensive and/or have interiors full of screens and lots of stuff powered by electric motors that doesn’t need to be powered at all. Or are Teslas, which, also see the stuff about screens and needlessly powered stuff like door handles
2) the ones that are reasonably affordable are useless for anything other than in-town driving, and I’m not taking out a new car loan for something that can satisfy only a single digit percentage of my driving needs
This is why I went hybrid. I looked at some cheap Leafs in my area, but when I realized what a small percentage of the miles I drive could actually be done in a Leaf I concluded the Prius would save a lot more gas.
Yeah, I have an Ioniq hybrid that I just use for work (because I drive about 2,000 business miles per month, so it would just get run into the ground too fast if I used it as my personal daily, too, given that the company also requires us to buy new cars every 4 years). I bought it because it had the highest fuel economy available at the time, and was also cheap enough to be right at the minimum MSRP required by my company to qualify for mileage reimbursement, without going much over it. So, it’s pretty well the absolute cheapest to operate per-mile that I could get at the time
The only way I see the battery replacement cost being a legit reason is due to timing. We have had enough EVs on the road for a long enough time running to start getting some data and also for people to hear anecdotally from friends, neighbors, family etc about their experiences.
So, I guess there could be enough people out there to have had to replace their batteries and tell all their friends about it and word spreads. If you’re taking that big of a hit (what, potentially $10-20K?) or being in a position to let your car go at great loss to get a new car you’re probably going to scream loudly and often to anyone that will listen.
It might be rare but the stories might be repeated enough that this makes sense. I guess time will tell if this data point repeats itself in more studies/surveys.
For me, it’s just one more data point in the column of how EVs (and many other cars TBH) are designed to either be obsolete or have greatly diminished capability on a long enough timeline with integrated infotainment and connectivity that can’t be upgraded. Just as ICE cars were nearing almost bullet-proof reliability (if you keep up required maintenance) we started looking for something else. EVs are great for lack of maintenance but I guess you’ll eventually pay it one way or another.
The best use case for EVs is for single-occupant daily commuting, with on-site charging either at home and/or at work/school. KISS, keep it cheap, and keep it relatively reliable (too many recent roll-outs have been half-baked, with far too many recalls to generate a lot of confidence in the product).
Range anxiety is just a convenient excuse. See golf carts as the opposite extreme, yet they’re selling in larger numbers for suburban use. If/when the Chinese are able to enter our market with some of their entry-level vehicles, attitudes should start to change. Unfortunately, EVs have become far too politicized to see that happening anytime soon.
Indeed, Battery degradation on even hybrids is a real problem/concern. I would very much like to get my mom a 2017 or so Volt, with the plug in hybrid setup. but I have seen even those with 60K miles on them advertised with a battery already replaced. That is a big problem if they need replacing often. They are far from cheap.
“The other irony of electric car demand is that the more people buy electric cars and hybrids, the lower the demand for gasoline. The lower the demand for gasoline, historically, the lower the prices. The lower gasoline prices get, the less attractive EVs and hybrids seem to people.”
I said this in a few places, firstly probably a decade ago. My argument was that as EVs penetrate the market more, eventually a gasoline car would be a value proposition vs. a fully electric one. We have already seen cases where electricity costs mean that charging an EV exceeds the cost to fuel a gasoline car over similar driving distances.
When I made this point previously, people told me I was nuts.
Too many states already slap onerous taxes on EVs that offset any savings from not paying fuel taxes.
Except that the “offset” is usually many times what the actual amount would have been. In my case, I’m offsetting enough for six gas cars with an average of 28MPG.
Someone’s got to pay for road maintenance?
No argument, the question is what is a fair amount? Charging a flat annual fee doesn’t factor in miles driven. It’s the same whether someone drives 3,000 or 30,000 miles a year, unlike a fuel tax paid at the pump.
By the time an EV is used enough that I can afford it, it will need a new battery. This will be a problem for a significant number of people when all cars at their price point are mechanically totaled.
Accurate.
How cheap are we talking? Things not the nissan leaf are largely fine, but we’re still a few years out from non-Tesla used EVs in abundance.
I don’t worry about the battery replacement, a good warranty will take care of that issue.
The problem is the EV infrastructure is not here…yet. It would cost a bit to get my home ready. But what of work and normal driving? Solve those and it overcome.
The next issue is range. I am the type that will decide to go a few thousands miles on vacation (drive avoid flying). EVs would nearly double my trip. Get the range up and the EV charge times down, then there is a possibility.
I really struggle with some of the hoopla around EVs. They’ve been politicized so much that most people have opinions of them one way or another that are solely driven by emotion and groupthink. I personally get annoyed by people on either extremes of the equation and don’t think that “EVs are the only way to save humanity” or “EVs are the literal devil” are sensible takes.
Range anxiety and road trip concerns are very real things for most Americans to worry about. We have to travel much longer distances in cars than most other people do, and if you’re someone that has a long road trip you make frequently it’s hard to justify an EV. I could make one work for like 90% of what I do without compromise but when my wife’s family is 300 heavily trafficked miles away the thought of buying something that might not be able to make the trip is daunting. So this I get.
…but battery degradation? Come on. Statistically speaking it’s a non-issue. This is not an argument that’s based on facts. I’ve also literally heard “it’s not safe to be sitting on top of a battery all the time” takes and those are completely nonsensical. If you have reasons not to want an EV that are purely based on vibes then I’m going to have a hard time taking them seriously.
And unfortunately those make up a lot of the reasons. I don’t see any particular reason to either love or hate EVs. They’re simply a tool for a job. If they work for you logistically and having an engaging, emotional driving experience doesn’t matter to you then you’ll almost certainly be very happy with one. They’re fantastic appliances.
If you need to tow or haul long distances or frequently do drives that are outside their range and/or there isn’t adequate charging then they’re probably not a great option, especially with the price premium…although a hybrid is worth a look and IMHO we’re out of excuses not to be driving hybrids almost across the board by now.
I think making EVs into a culture war issue was mind bogglingly stupid. I also think that trying to force people into them was always going to meet resistance in the US. For better AND worse most Americans don’t take too kindly to being told what to do and a disappointing proportion of us just don’t care about anything that isn’t affecting us directly. If you try to force folks to do something for the greater good much of the population is wired to just say “fuck you” and dig in.
I think EVs should’ve been brought along more slowly and intentionally and we should’ve allowed the market to decide whether or not they’re worth it. It sounds crazy but I actually think we’d see wider spread adoption at this point if that’s how it was done. If a product is competitive people will buy it. If a product is objectively harder to live with and more expensive people won’t…and that’s where EVs are right now in the US.
Nearly everything has been turned into a culture war and it’s almost all stupid. That’s because humanity is overall stupid and easily manipulated. The most unfortunate part is that manipulators are also stupid.
I read recently that the battery longevity has also been understated as the testing regimes don’t reflect the lower stress of actual common usage in the real world. Personally, I’d buy whatever I want that fits what I’m looking for. Currently, that’s no EVs, but it’s also almost no ICE, either, and the one I do have is about the only thing available that I like beyond shrugging acceptance that I need a car and it drives.
This is my core problem with the overall market right now as well. If I abslutely had to buy a car tomorrow I’d be looking at another mid-teens sedan, nothing currently on the market is compelling enough to buy into the 8 year overpayment burden.
The only cars that check every box I’d want right now are luxury products. I’d like for that to change by the time I’m shopping again.
I’m very happy with my ’13 Si Sedan, aside from it being 12 years old and having the wear expected of a vehicle that age, and the lack of car play. To add it I either have to find a unicorn CRV head unit, or loose some functionality with the secondary display (iMID). It’s only got 60k miles on it, so I’ve got plenty of time for the market to meet my expectations.
Unfortunately I’m going to need a car with more space in the next 2-3ish years. In addition to space for a family of 4/a small-ish dog, I want something that’s fast, efficient, has some level of engagement, and can make the long road trip we make multiple times a year without any headaches.
I get that it’s a lot to ask, which is why my only real options right now are luxury cars. I find the current BMW 540i to be rather appealing. It’s rated 26/33 MPG, has around 400 horsepower and hits 60 in 4 seconds flat, has enough space for everyone and their luggage (fits 6 carry on sized suitcases), etc. I wouldn’t buy one new because the depreciation is so bad but once CPOs start popping up in the high 40s I’ll certainly take a look.
Otherwise I’m kind of waiting to see if the GR Sport RAV4 or Charger 6 Pack are any good. I also think the Honda Passport is super cool even if it doesn’t check the fast box…but woof, I am not living with 18/23 fuel economy. Apparently Honda is a year out from debuting a hybrid system for their large vehicles so I’ll wait and see if that helps.
Yeah I’ve reached the top of that space curve, the kids are big enough to not need four times their body weight in support gear, and while I haven’t proven this yet; the trunck on the Si should be able to swallow all our luggage for a road trip. No dog, and the kitty hates road trips….
The Ioniq 5 is really nice, and ones with the rear windshield wiper should be readily available used then
I’d legitimately consider trying to make the Ioniq 5 N work if it either had better range or supercharger access. As is 220 miles and having to use Electrify America stations is a bit of a deal breaker.
I’m pretty sure they do have supercharger access. The Ioniq5 was the first non-tesla NACS car.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a64410159/2025-hyundai-ioniq-5-nacs-port-charging-test/
That must have changed for the 2025 model year. Good to know.
Unfortunately every Ioniq 5 EXCEPT the N got the NACS ports. They’re keeping the N with the CCS port for some reason, at least for now.
Look into a Mercedes W212 E350 wagon. I prefer the 2012-16 non turbo models. BaT is the best source to see current prices. Tons of room and a reliable 300hp V6. 30 mpg on the highway, and with its 21 gallon gas tank, a 600 mile range. Prices have dropped recently, too. Many lower mileage suburban driven examples out there.
I certainly hope the modern batteries are much more likely to not degrade compared to the hybrids of the past. But I am seeing 2014 Teslas with one or two dead cells basically limpmoded with very expensive bills to do a battery overhaul or replacement. eventually used car dealers will likely become good at battery fixes in house as they will be able to pick up these vehicles for very cheap since the wrecking yards don’t really want them…yet. For an intrepid lover of speed though, I could see a business literally built around refurb batteries and the ability to install them.
People will tend to repeat what they hear most often when justifying their decisions, and surveys like the one cited aren’t very accurate.
I think the biggest issue is that the overall cost comparison for BEVs just isn’t good for most people. The higher initial cost, combined with massive depreciation and the perceived and real limitations, does not make for an attractive option. For those looking to reduce their carbon footprint, they also need to live somewhere that isn’t dependent on fossil fuels for generating electricity. You need a relatively rare use case to know that a BEV is a good financial option.
Additionally, the potential market for BEVs is already limited to individuals who own their homes and have access to a charging station. A smaller market and a product that doesn’t offer significant benefits means it is likely to hit a limit.
The only hybrid vehicle I have experience with was my wife’s 2007 Highlander Hybrid. When we sold it at like 185K miles it still got close to the indicated range. Friends of the family owned it until recently and it now has well over 200K miles and I think the battery is now starting to degrade.
I’d be concerned about the longevity of an internal combustion engine at that mileage too, so it’s a wash.
good example of one side, mine was with a Honda Insight. It did ok for my mother for 50K or so miles, but it did seem to be loosing some overall fuel economy by then, but a minor fender bender and the insurance company would not fix it. They were to concerned about the electrical system to make the repair even though it was quoted within the value to whatever ratio they use when decided to fix or Send to auction.
One of the things that I don’t think gets talked about enough are the ridiculous registration fees for EVs. In Oklahoma, the registration fee for an EV is significantly higher than for a gas vehicle, ostensibly to “offset” the gas taxes I’m not paying. The math isn’t mathing, though. Compared to a 28MPG average car, the increased registration fee is about 6x the gas tax that I would have paid for the non-EV.
Then you have to look at the proposed $250/yr EV tax in the stupid budget bill. That’s another thumb in the eye that claims to be an offset for the gas tax, but is, again, massively disproportionate. Just raise the damn gas tax, already. Or charge a road use fee based on GVW.
That kind of policy really puts a bad taste in my mouth on making my next purchase a full EV, even though I really enjoy driving my (leased) 500e, and have a very good setup for charging an EV at home.
Yeah, Idaho does that, too. My PHEV also gets hit with the higher registration. If the budget bill goes through, I may have to look at whether it’s better to go back to a gasser, even though I’d prefer not to.
That $250/yr, when I did the math, would be the same amount of tax as a 10mpg vehicle going almost 14,000 miles per year or a 30 mpg vehicle going 41,000. I get cheap hydro energy, so the savings are probably still there, but it would suck to be hit with that.
Yeah, it’s pretty galling to be hit with something like an extra $400 a year in registration fees for driving a BEV.
I don’t have a source for this (it was probably the old lighting site) but years ago a person was charged with tax evasion (or just fined) in NC for fueling his vehicle on waste oil, since he wasn’t buying diesel he wasn’t paying taxes.
Kentucky is the same and even used verbiage “HV and BEV drivers unfairly not paying gas tax”.
God forbid we have a mileage x vehicle weight user tax to really even it out. See how unhappy the bro-dozers guys get.
This is part of the right wing culture war stupid. Vindictive red state republicans see EVs as cars for liberals and Californians, and they want to punish people who own them and companies that make them. Being unfair is the point.
A thing I find interesting is the mindset some people have, where they will consider a hybrid, but not an EV, citing battery concerns. The hybrid battery most likely uses the same chemistry, but will go through many more cycles in the same number of miles while the engine also kicks on and off and wears, too. The hybrid battery is cheaper, but if you’re replacing it several times as often, that could add up. That said, people aren’t finding themselves replacing hybrid batteries that often, either.
The thing that makes buying an EV difficult for me is that I want something with physical controls, the features I like, and a reasonable price tag. It’s tough to get all of that in one package, but I think it may happen soon.
The battery of a BEV is a lot more than a hybrid, though. I know this isn’t the best example, but that’s the consequence of my memory and the high volume of crap I try to cram into it, however IIRC, it’s something like 65 unspecified hybrids could be made with 1 Ford Lightning battery pack, plus a BEV will very likely have a more integrated battery that’s harder to change out beyond the simple extra weight and size. Also, the ICE still moves the car with a dead battery, which makes people feel more assured, even if it’s probably not moving it all that well (My sister’s 2nd gen Civic Hybrid had an underpowered chainsaw engine and was painfully slow with a dead battery).
Sure, the costs are more, but I’m talking longevity here. The humble Prius has shown that hybrid batteries can go through a LOT of charge/discharge cycles. The concerns about the cost of replacing batteries need to be weighed against the usable lifespan, which may well be longer than the lifespan of an ICE powertrain.
Admittedly, the data is still a little fuzzy, since the highest mileage EV examples we’re starting to see (mostly Teslas–I will be very interested in seeing some Ultium platform high mileage vehicles once they are out there long enough) may be outliers or typical, and we may not know for a bit, but I think the Prius battery lifespans make me feel pretty good about EV battery lifespans.
Ah, I see what you were getting at now. Not sure why I misinterpreted you originally, but I agree.
I don’t want a BEV, but if I’m still alive in the next 15-20 years, I’ll assume I’ll be forced into one. My current take is that the US is on the brink of becoming a 3rd world country, and we’ll all be lucky to own a 50cc scooter.
I’ve an an EV (ultium platform Honda) since November and though it’s not perfect, I never want to go back to ICE.
What manufacturers and marketers of EV’s need to know is this, though –
You are so very right about the people who can’t charge their phones. I’ll also add to that the people that never, ever have a charge cable when they need it, asking everyone around them if they have a cable for X phone. They are the ones that will leave their cable/adapter at the public charger.
As a buyer of generally old cars (my 2015 GMC and 2006 Chevy were both purchased in the last couple of years to replace a 1995 Chevy and a 1994 Ford) battery life/cost would be a big deal to me. My new-to-me trucks would have roughly 80% and 60% of their original capacity, or would cost more to fix than their acquisition cost if electric? No thanks.
If you’re someone who trades in for a new model every 3 years, or buys lightly used cars fresh off lease? Probably less of a problem.
I’m curious as to whether the survey respondents consider themselves more likely to be a car’s 1st/2nd owner or the 3rd/4th/5th name on the title – the latter might have legitimate concerns, but since I’m guessing they were probably focusing only on new car buyers this is just people who were going to hate on electric regardless finding a reason to hate…
Short answer, no.
Long answer… I am 18k into a 100k warranty that goes to 2032 on a battery that was brand new in September. Currently only driving less than 1000 miles a month. Not worried.
I’m so not worried that I’m starting to look at $6k Bolts that have 100k+ miles on them. Because why not?? Who’s to say it won’t go another 100k, but still have 150 miles on a charge. Fine for an around town car.
“At the same time, there’s surprisingly little choice in the electric car space.”
Massive understatement.
As an EV owner, and using it as a daily driver, I agree they are far too expensive. The comparable gas or hybrid models are far less expensive for the same features. Charging networks may have been improving but it’s far from ideal. I say this from a city with only 3 high speed charging stations that aren’t Tesla, and no way to charge at home. Battery degradation isn’t an issue, to me. I’m on a nearly 4 year old EV with no battery issues.
I think some of the talk comes from people used to having throwaway gas cars and wearing rose-colored glasses. They haven’t replaced a rusted-out fuel tank, or experienced recurring vaporlock, or had to drop a transmission on the side of the road to fix a bad seal in the middle of the night, or had a battery fall over and melt on the exhaust headers and cause a plume of battery acid to surround the car, or had a fuel pump blow out and leak gasoline all over the parking lot. EV’s aren’t perfect, but I’ll take a nap in a store parking lot while charging over being covered in gas and oil and bugs.
(Edit: I own a MY 2022 Polestar 2)
“Do you worry about battery degradation?”
No. My 2016 Leaf had 82% of original capacity when I sold it in 2024. My 2021 former rental Model 3 has ~85% of battery capacity at 80k miles. Most EV owners I know have had similar (or better) experiences with degradation. I don’t know anyone who has had severe degradation or a catastrophic battery failure. Based on my experience, I don’t see any reason to doubt a battery will provide useful range for 200k miles. Future batteries should be even better.
People forget how much ICE vehicles cost to maintain over the life of the car. If you add up the cost of fuel and maintenance for an ICE vehicle, battery replacement costs seem much more reasonable.
Right now, the biggest problem with EV ownership is the lack of charging infrastructure. The vehicles and batteries are adequate for most drivers.
Many people seem to apply their experience on cell phone/laptop batteries and project it onto EVs.
What they do not recognize is that ordinary LiPo batteries hate 100% depth of discharge, i.e. going from 100% down to near 0%, and back and forth. That’s what cell phones do because manufacturers figure by the time the batteries are degraded, it’s time for a new phone that they will gladly sell you.
EVs do not manage their batteries like that. Reduce the DOD down to 60%, and the cycle life goes way up. LiPo may last 500 cycles at 100% DOD (not that the battery will be dead, just down on capacity.) At 60% DOD the number is easily tripled or more. Ordinary use of EV would put far less demand than that.
And that’s the older generation of LiPo. Modern LFP can easily quadruple those numbers and then some. For shits and giggles I factored my use case for EV. An LFP pack can last through the year 2100.
I’m amazed by the number of people who are commenting that battery failure is “overblown” but don’t even acknowledge that the cost differential is still very real (ICE powertrain to EV battery). If battery failure is at 1.5%, that means 1-2 of every 100 used cars on the market WILL FAIL. That is a very real amount that reasonably tips scales of fence sitters.
1.5% seems like a low number to me, especially considering 1G Leafs (which were known to have high rates of severe degradation) are overrepresented in their data due to their popularity. Historical data regarding battery degradation will be more meaningful when modern EVs are 15-20 years old. It is hard to draw any conclusions when the only old EVs are low-tech cars with outdated technology.
Plus, that 1.5% refers to batteries that needed to be replaced. That does not mean those batteries failed. I presume many of those were replaced when the battery could no longer provide useful range. That was a much bigger problem for old, short range EVs like the Leaf. Losing 40% of battery capacity is a huge problem if your car could only go 70 miles when new. Losing 40% of capacity is far less of a problem for a modern EV that had 250-300 miles range when new.
Also, the need for battery replacement is usually predictable (again, the problem is typically excess degradation instead of a catastrophic failure). If you buy a used EV that has 80-90% of its original capacity, it is unlikely you will need to replace the battery anytime soon. It is generally easy to screen out cars with bad batteries. Like all vehicle purchases, you should do your homework to ensure you are buying a good car before buying an EV.
That data I have access to is primarily Tesla (simply due to market share). I can assure you that spontaneous catastrophic failure is a real thing that some owners do have to deal with.
However, you do make a fair point about replacement vs failure. All OEMs have a cut off percentage before they will warranty, and many shops just use that cut off as the time to recommend a battery replacement.
For the data you have access to, is it broken down by model year? Are newer Teslas experiencing the same rate of catastrophic failure as earlier cars? I generally consider Teslas to be “modern” EVs, but I presume technology has improved considerably from the OG Model S to a current Tesla.
Also, it would be very interesting to see more details regarding the circumstances of battery replacement. Replacement due catastrophic failure is a very different scenario than replacement due to degrading below a capacity threshold or replacement due to physical damage. I have assumed most replacements are due to degrading below a capacity threshold, but I will admit this is based on anecdotes rather than data.
Older model years do experience more failures, but we don’t have enough data on the newer model years to distinguish between battery improvement, or these batteries just aren’t old enough yet. There isn’t enough data to really tell the difference between “old design” and “battery got old”. It will definitely take a few more years before we can see how battery advancements have changed performance.
Its not even clear enough yet how much impact the different battery chemistries are having. But that is also difficult to pull as my data doesn’t directly reference that, so I have to look at things by make/model/trim/year etc trying to parse that out.
It’s also important to consider that some portion of that 1.5% failure rate are very early failures, just like in ICE vehicles. Inconvenient, sure, but certainly a warranty and/or recall issue, not a big hit to the pocketbook.
More important to most people than a failure rate is the average number of miles a battery lasts, and the number of high-mileage examples is growing, so we are starting to see how long batteries really last before the range degrades significantly or cells fail fully. I don’t know as we have solid data, yet, since it’s a very small minority of batteries that have driven long enough to hit the end of their useful life, but it’s looking pretty good.
I’m also hopeful that we’ll settle into some standardization for batteries, lowering costs for replacement and improving reparability, but that may be a pipe dream.
I took the EV plunge last year. I have zero concerns about pack replacement. If it gets that bad before 150k miles, Tesla is on the hook for it. Living in a CARB state gives that warranty a few extra teeth. And aftermarket options will inevitably come out. The 3/Y packs seem to be doing fine as a fleet. So, fingers crossed I’ll never need to face that issue. Being able to charge at home on a L2 charger helps a lot. L1 was fine for most things but L2 is way more convenient. NY going hard into EV adoption with chargers everywhere helps alleviate road trip concerns.
Of all things, my RC lithium packs being just fine after a few years of beating the snot out of them sold me on an EV. The BMS of a RC lithium battery is the charger. An EV BMS is way more sophisticated. Liquid cooling helps a lot for lifespan.
I leased a Lyriq Luxury 2 a couple of weeks ago. Seems like a good car to own in the short term, but I wouldn’t want to be stuck holding the bag at, say, year five.
It’s already in the service department for software glitches and a rattle, and the dealership gave me an Escalade IQ loaner, specifically a Sport 2. The Escalade IQ seems as well-put-together as anything–except for the hot glue remnants I noticed on the headliner speakers, which seems to be a GM bugaboo–but it also costs $160K, as equipped. It seems the dealer is stuck with quite a few Escalade IQs, and so has chosen to press them into loaner duty. This one had 38 miles on the odometer when they handed it to me yesterday.
The thing weighs a legit 9,000 lbs, which means it’s in a weight class wherein it cannot have a traditional passenger-car convex mirror, so the right blind spot is a bit of a burden, but other than that, it is remarkably easy to drive and to park. I believe it has rear-wheel steering, too. And the power opening/closing doors are a neat gimmick.
I’m not sure I would buy an Escalade IQ/L over a regular Escalade/EXT, however, especially since the 2025 ICE Escalade has much of the same tech, and allegedly they’ll have a fix for the L87 engines. To that point, my salesman lamented that the dealership got no allocations for ICE Escalades last month, and so has a waiting list for future incoming units…which shows where people’s preferences are at. I’m sure they’d be willing to deal on one of these Escalade IQs.
I think the G class is in much the same boat demand wise across the street at Mercedes. No one wants the electric, the gas ones still are in high demand.