Home » Why Bank of America’s Car Analyst Thinks The Next Two Years Will Suck For Manufacturers, Buyers

Why Bank of America’s Car Analyst Thinks The Next Two Years Will Suck For Manufacturers, Buyers

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Every year, analysts from Bank of America put together the “Car Wars” report that looks at where the market is expected to go over the next few years. It’s a big deal and uses the idea of how often carmakers are updating or launching models to determine who the winners and losers are likely to be. This year, it looks like almost everyone is a loser. “We have never seen this kind of change before,” said BofA’s chief analyst John Murphy on a call with reporters yesterday.

Why? The combination of tariffs and what he calls the “EV head-fake” has basically tossed all product plans into a state of profound confusion. I’m going to start today’s Morning Dump by summarizing the findings of the report, and then I’ll apply them to the news of the day. I’ll start in Germany, with mega-supplier ZF. The company makes some of the world’s best transmissions. It’s also on the verge of collapse. How did that happen?

Vidframe Min Top
Vidframe Min Bottom

For all of the hype around Chinese EVs, the market there is a mess. How could that affect our market? I’ll get into that, too. I’ll also follow up on the Rare Earth conversation from yesterday, as China’s export limits are already hitting a car, and not one you’d expect.

‘This Is A Really, Really, Really Big Deal’

Between 2006 and 2025, the industry launched approximately 41 new vehicles a year (including new models and new generations of existing products). Recently, that number has gone up, with approximately 44 new cars being launched every year between 2022 and 2025. This number is connected to the “replacement rate” of models in a carmaker’s lineup, which looks at what percentage of an OEM’s sales volume is replaced with a new model/generation.

The BofA “Car Wars” report is focused on these stats for a pretty straightforward reason:

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“We believe replacement rate drives showroom age, which drives market share, which in turn drives profits, and ultimately stock prices,” the bank’s analysts wrote in their report, which I have a copy of but cannot fully share. I’ll grab the parts I think are key, starting with this chart:

Bofa Replacement Rate

There seems to be a connection between the average volume replacement rate, the age of the cars in the showroom, and the change in market share. GM is a little bit of an outlier here, but this number is likely skewed by the big increase in overlapping electric model launches over the last two years, which hasn’t yielded a huge sales increase.

As a regular reader of TMD, you’re probably aware that the hype around electrification and the rising costs associated with environmental regulations created a strong push from automakers to build electric cars. That didn’t quite work out for automakers, as expensive EV crossovers haven’t exactly found as many customers as necessary to justify all the investments.

With the election of President Trump, things have gotten even harder to predict:

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The unprecedented EV head-fake has wreaked havoc on product plans. This has been driven by consumer disinterest and regulation/ incentive changes. In addition, the recent tariff war is also complicating the equation. This has driven a pothole in product launches in Model Years 2026 & 2027, with only a slight recovery in Model Years 2028 & 2029. The next four+ years will be the most uncertain and volatile time in product strategy ever. Therefore, we think that automakers must lean heavily into their core ICE product portfolios to generate the capital to fund the uncertain future.

The immediate future doesn’t look great. With plans being tossed asunder, the number of launches estimated in 2026 drops to just 29:

Predicted Model Launch Chart Large

“We have never seen this kind of change before,” said BofA analyst Murphy on the call. Next year’s predicted drop in new product launches is the result of cancellations and the “lowest we’ve had in decades.” That should eventually turn around in 2028 and 2029 as automakers implement adjusted plans, but that’s assuming tariffs don’t screw with too many plans.

“This is a really, really, really big deal,” he said to underline the point.

How does this impact car buyers?

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People like new models and more choices, and that extreme competition usually offers a chance for lower-priced cars. OEMs have had more price discipline since the pandemic (see Trimflation), and that’s maybe going to continue into the future, which could mean less choice and worse deals:

Although industry-wide pricing has historically been challenged, an unprecedented period of pricing power manifested for the automotive value chain from 2020+, driven by a significant imbalance of strong demand versus tight supply as well as relative discipline through the industry. This was evidenced by average transaction prices climbing to historic highs, and average incentives dropping to historic lows. This was the key reason for robust financial results among automakers and dealers. So far pricing has remained remarkably resilient, but it remains to be seen whether this discipline can hold over the long run as volumes return. We remain hopeful, but somewhat skeptical.

If the dam breaks on pricing, it would be better for consumers, but worse for car companies. There’s more in here, specifically the likelihood that the CUV market has become overstuffed and we’re likely to see fewer CUV launches and, maybe, more affordable small cars. That would be nice. Hybrids, too, are on the rise.

What Is Happening At ZF?

Bmw And Porsche 1 Medium
Photo: Author

Whenever I’m in a super high-powered car with an automatic transmission, like the BMW M5 Touring Comp above, I look to check and see what the transmission is. If it’s excellent at handling the torque and shifts predictably, I assume it’s a variant of the ZF 8HP eight-speed transmission. This gearbox has been used in everything from the Aston Martin Rapide to the Hellcat Dodge Durango.

ZF is, in my experience, the builder of the best automatic transmissions in the world. It’s also in trouble. Why? There are many reasons, but a lot of it has to do with the same “EV head fake” that’s disrupting automakers. ZF assumed a huge need for EV components and made that investment. It’s not working, and it has many wondering if the supplier, which makes a bunch of other components, might just get out of the transmission game altogether or spin off the Division E powertrain unit.

The company’s new CEO and current board member, Mathias Miedreich, talked to reporters, including one from Manager Magazin, and basically said anything was possible:

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“We’re preparing for all eventualities,” he told manager magazin. “It would be negligent not to do so.”

“A rampdown would be the worst thing that could happen to us, because we would not only destroy value but also lose market share very quickly,” says the board member. “But you never know exactly how the situation will develop and which ripcord you might need to pull if the economic situation demands it.”

His goal, however, is different. “My ideal scenario is that Division E delivers cash and profits for ZF in the long term. And I firmly believe we can achieve this. There are various paths and options to achieve this, with or without partners.”

Good luck with that.

Chinese Automakers Got Called To The Principal’s Office

Geely Won't Buy More
Source: Depositphotos.com

I mentioned last week that Chinese automakers have been chirping at one another over the ongoing price war and activities like trying to sell new cars as zero-mileage used cars. The logic of selling cars so cheaply and losing money seems a strange one to people raised in a Western-style capitalist system. China has its own form of a capitalist market, but one where profits are not particularly important.

Instead, Chinese companies want market share. They want to own as much of a sector as they possibly can, eventually squeezing out the competition if they can manage it. The photovoltaic/solar cell was invented in the United States, but now the entire world is basically beholden to Chinese companies because they figured out a way to make them much, much cheaper and at a scale no one else can compete with right now.

Chinese automakers are trying to do the same and finding it a lot harder, given how expensive cars are and because Chinese authorities essentially subsidized the creation of too many car companies. All this is finally coming to a head with government officials finally encouraging automakers to self-regulate.

Per Bloomberg:

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“The meeting was hosted by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the market regulator and the top economic planning agency, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private information. The gathering was attended by senior executives from more than a dozen manufacturers that also included Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co. and Xiaomi Corp., the people said.

Officials told EV makers to “self-regulate,” and that they shouldn’t sell cars below cost or offer unreasonable price cuts. They also addressed issues such as “zero-mileage” cars and mounting bills owed to suppliers that are squeezing cash flow along the supply chain and acting as quasi-debt financing for automakers, the people said.

Almost every company is trying to compete on price, but BYD is clearly the worst of the bunch here. The bit about squeezing suppliers and using them as quasi-debt financing is fascinating. I’ve heard some talk of this before, and it’s basically when companies delay payments to suppliers in order to either avoid a cash crunch while rapidly building plants and expanding. This is essentially a zero-interest loan. You won’t be surprised to hear that BYD, again, is a main culprit here.

An analyst from BofA also noted this is a concern here in the United States, and that Western regulators should keep China’s carmakers far away from here during that country’s price war, and to wait for “rationalization of that market to occur before you open the doors.” That seems sound.

Rare Earth Restrictions Claim Its First Victim, And It’s The Last Car You’d Guess

Suzuki Swift Large
Source: Suzuki

When I talked about the concern over Chinese restrictions on Rare Earth materials yesterday, I wanted to impress upon everyone that this isn’t just about fancy electric cars. All sorts of vehicles need these parts. Proof of my claims came a lot faster than I expected, as overnight, Japanese automaker Suzuki had to cut production of the extraordinarily not fancy Swift over issues related to Rare Earth exports from China, as Nikkei Asia reports:

Rare-earth metals, crucial for motors in electric and hybrid vehicles, are largely produced in China, which accounts for 70% of global output. In April, the Chinese government imposed export controls on seven types of rare-earth metals in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.

Suzuki has suspended production of its Swift models, except for the sport model, from May 26 to June 6. The company did not say why. Parts procurement has been delayed because China has been slow to issue export licenses.

Some Swift models have simplified hybrid systems designed to limit fuel consumption. If Suzuki halted production only of models with hybrid systems, that would reduce the efficiency of the production line. The company thus seems to have halted production of other models as well.

Expect more, not less, of this going forward.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

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Annie Lennox and Dave Stewart are almost too cool as Eurythmics. I thought of a bunch of different songs from the band for today’s musical choice, but I gotta start with the classic “Sweet Dreams.”

The Big Question

I’ve asked this question in various ways before, but looking at all the above, who do you think is best positioned to win the next three years of Cars Wars? 

Top Photo: Game Of Thrones (HBO)/Toyota

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David Reynolds
David Reynolds
1 month ago

“This has been driven by consumer disinterest…” 

This oft repeated comment about EV demand seems to be feeding a second EV self-fulfilling prophecy. The first prophecy was they are low performing slugs so why bother putting a lot of money into it. So, your cheap components create a (surprise surprise) a low performing slug.

This was finally broken by a few people being willing to spend the money to make them work right, and the high-end EV market bloomed. So now everybody that enters the EV market comes out with a high-end luxury EV, because that’s what was selling.

Problem is, the high-end EV market is now flooded. Anybody that wants and can afford a high-end EV has one. Now all the armchair types are running around saying See, nobody wants EVs!

Look at just about any conversation on any forum talking about Bezos’ new truck and you will see lots of comments of interest if they can keep it at that price point.

The interest is there. The average car buyer simply can’t afford a high-end expensive vehicle no matter what it is powered by. This is amplified in the EV market because there are next to no affordable EVs, even with tax credits.

Max Headbolts
Max Headbolts
1 month ago

I’ve heard some talk of this before, and it’s basically when companies delay payments to suppliers in order to either avoid a cash crunch while rapidly building plants and expanding.

They absolutely stole this from the Big 3 playbook, FCA/Stellantis for example has had NET terms over 100 days for their suppliers.

Alpine 911
Alpine 911
1 month ago
Reply to  Max Headbolts

Technically 90 days but they pay only after 105. Such long payment terms have been industry standard since the 90s, with Lopez

Max Headbolts
Max Headbolts
1 month ago
Reply to  Alpine 911

They extended them in 2020….

Harvey Park Avenue
Harvey Park Avenue
1 month ago
Reply to  Max Headbolts

Tavares unilaterally implemented net-infinity payment terms, much to the suppliers’ chagrin.

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
1 month ago

Public transit.
Annie is a gem.

Mike B
Mike B
1 month ago

I’m thinking the next 2(+) years are going to suck for EVERYONE.

That One Guy
That One Guy
1 month ago

Korea’s position at the top of that list is largely due to EVs, but I think the ceiling there is limited. Tesla’s market’s tapped out I think. They’ll keep chugging along. I think Toyota with their great hybrid options and their ability to Franks Hot Sauce that technology (put that S#!T on everything!) is a short term winning strategy.

M SV
M SV
1 month ago

BYD seems fairly unstoppable at this point. Xpeng not be far behind. Toyota and Hyundai will probably be fine. It looks like Rivian will weather it Ford will figure out a way to survive. Alot of others might be looking for bailout or to sell off to the Chinese.

I don't hate manual transmissions
I don't hate manual transmissions
1 month ago

Regarding the steel and aluminum tariffs, my theory is it’s intended to drive down GM and Ford stock prices so the companies can be snapped up cheaply by the middle eastern sovereign wealth funds. Quid pro quo for the 747.

Any other rationale for imposing them just doesn’t make any sense.

You can’t just snap your fingers and bring back smelting operations. If you really wanted to bring those industries back, you would have to do it with tax breaks, grants and low interest loans (carrot) instead of suddenly imposed taxes on the finished materials (stick). The cart (profit) isn’t tied to the horse (manufacturing) here, so all the tariffs are going to do is depress the American automotive manufacturing sector as production moves elsewhere.

But Lutnick is a moron who lives in his own little bubble with a completely unrealistic worldview, so the domestic manufacturers are screwed for the short and mid term.

The Chinese manufacturers will be the only winners here, and we’ll be clamoring to get their cars once what’s left of the Big 3 has to charge $50k for their cheapest offering.

Last edited 1 month ago by I don't hate manual transmissions
Data
Data
1 month ago

120 month financing incoming.

I don't hate manual transmissions
I don't hate manual transmissions
1 month ago
Reply to  Data

As I replied to Cheap Bastard the other day:

So cynical. And yet so accurate.

LMCorvairFan
LMCorvairFan
1 month ago

Are you implying that Trump actually has something like a plan?

I don't hate manual transmissions
I don't hate manual transmissions
1 month ago
Reply to  LMCorvairFan

Just a concept of a plan.

LMCorvairFan
LMCorvairFan
1 month ago

A hint of a concept?

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
1 month ago
Reply to  LMCorvairFan

A framework.

JDE
JDE
1 month ago

I figured it was just politics. promise something, publicly try it. when it fails and you back track blame the other guys and keep your base voting block pissed off.

Also make sure you invest where it might be hurt short term, tell your cronies and then sell when it rebounds a bit.

All the while taking in Taxes(Tariffs) to cover govt spending. hoping the economy does not implode too quickly.

Tariffs are intended to equalize sales on products built where the average wage is in some eyes criminally low. China does seem to have very low wages and a big track record of Human Rights violations. But we Americans eat up the Temu Prices and look the other way quite a bit too.

I don't hate manual transmissions
I don't hate manual transmissions
1 month ago
Reply to  JDE

Politics is promise something to get elected, then blame the other party for not being able to follow through. That kind of stuff generally doesn’t mess up the markets.

What we have here isn’t politics, at least not in a traditional sense. It’s sowing confusion to intentionally mess with the markets. To the jaded observer, it looks like the intent is to drive the economy down so the rich can buy up what they don’t already own, brought to you by people that think “money” is a zero sum game and if you’ve got any, they need to take it from you.

There’s probably a Highlander reference that fits in here too, but we’re much too early in the game for that to be playing out.

FleetwoodBro
FleetwoodBro
1 month ago

Agree with you and I don’t think your theory is limited to steel/aluminum and domestic car manufacturers. I have a suspicion the current admin is trying to bust out the entire economy like the mob busted out the restaurant in Good Fellas.

Beto O'Kitty
Beto O'Kitty
1 month ago

It’s good that the BofA has “something” out there to go on. Of course I would caution anything that is not history, such as estimates, be viewed using the past.
The chart (exhibit 3) shows 2029 estimate as the second highest on the chart. Not sure what they are having for lunch over there but the chart’s highest number was in 2007. Remember what happened in 2008?
By 2029 we will probably all be broke.
Maybe I will buy one to live in.

Ignatius J. Reilly
Ignatius J. Reilly
1 month ago

The best-positioned carmakers are those least dependent on the U.S. So that eliminates all domestic manufacturers. Toyota would be the best bet. They were smart and looked at EVs from an engineering perspective rather than following the hype, which means they can continue to make profitable hybrids while slowly ramping up EVs to match BEV market share.

BEVs are likely to face headwinds beyond the current Administration’s clear desire to exacerbate issues at every level. The degree to which EVS are an environmental benefit is marginal with our current electricity production mix. A mix that might well get worse going forward than it is better. If they start to allow mining in environmentally sensitive areas in the U.S. to address the supply issues they have created by getting into a fight with China, EVs will start to be viewed more like coal-powered vehicles than Prii.

The price of electricity is also likely to go up significantly if the Bitcoin Ponzi schemes continue to grow and AI farms do the same. Little to no government incentives, EV-specific higher material prices, and higher electricity prices mean that the more a company has invested in EVs, the worse off they will be in the U.S.

Jon Myers
Jon Myers
1 month ago

I’m afraid the data shows that even in a state like West Virginia that gets 90% of its electricity from coal, EVs still emit much less CO2 over their lifetime than ICE vehicles. EVs are not much better than hybrid vehicles in West Virginia, but they are much better than ICE and hybrid vehicles on average when you include all the states in the union. Yes, mining pollutes but extracting oil and gas pollutes much more. The current administration just opened up 1.56 MILLION acres in Alaska to new oil and gas leases. EVs are not perfect but they are a big step forward with regards to pollution. https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric-emissions
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/comparative-life-cycle-greenhouse-gas-emissions-of-a-mid-size-bev-and-ice-vehicle
https://alaskabeacon.com/2025/03/20/interior-secretary-announces-plans-to-advance-new-arctic-national-wildlife-refuge-oil-leasing/

Ignatius J. Reilly
Ignatius J. Reilly
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon Myers

I don’t care a bit whether I am driving ICE, Hybrid, PHEV or BEV. I just want to have good information to go on and reduce the overall impact of my transportation.

The idea that EVs and ICE take the same amount to produce is wrong if you don’t include the required extraction for the batteries. You need to account for the entire life cycle. It isn’t just assembly and running, and it isn’t just CO2 that we need to worry about.

Overview
Direct link to the data

EVs are almost always better than ICE, but when you look at BEVs vs PHEVs, BEVs need favorable conditions to come out ahead. BEVs are not a significant step ahead, and claiming they are the de facto best option is damaging because it means people are less likely to select the best option for their particular use case. Most often, that is going to be a PHEV.

As far as the extraction issues go…
If that ever happens, I will be dead or in prison.

Joregon
Joregon
1 month ago

Someone beat me to responding to the “but but but EVs are actually worse” canard. Piston cars don’t grow on trees, and gas doesn’t just percolate from a spring under the canopy of your gas station. There is a massive supply chain designed to harvest and process resources to make and run ICE cars. Just like EVs. We are just used to it because it’s been there since before we were born.

Regardless of what you think about the politics around EV… They are kind of cool and I’d be bummed to see them drop in popularity. They make awesome second vehicles for lots of families, great primary vehicles for people that can make the charging infrastructure work, they are pretty inexpensive to run and maintain, they tend to be fun to drive. Give them a shot.

Ignatius J. Reilly
Ignatius J. Reilly
1 month ago
Reply to  Joregon

See response to Jon above.

Mr E
Mr E
1 month ago

Definitely not Ford. They haven’t come out with anything of note in about four years. Not sure what the heck they’re doing in Dearborn.

Dan1101
Dan1101
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr E

An ugly Mustang facelift and a somewhat ugly Maverick facelift is all I’ve noticed. Higher prices all around.

Still no cars, so someone that doesn’t want a truck or SUV won’t be looking at Ford very much.

Last edited 1 month ago by Dan1101
Mr E
Mr E
1 month ago
Reply to  Dan1101

I don’t hate the S650, but the S550 looks better to me.

The restyled Maverick is an improvement over the awkward headlight design of the first gen.

But yes, their prices are out of control and their programs suck.

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
1 month ago
Reply to  Mr E

Their skunkworks might spawn something interesting. Not sure if it will be any good, but I’m pretty sure it will be interesting. Unless they do the typical big 3 thing and cancel it at the eleventh hour after investing billions.

Mr E
Mr E
1 month ago

If they spawn something interesting AND not financially out of reach of the average customer (cough GTD cough) then I might be interested.

Parsko
Parsko
1 month ago

BYD – because China
Tesla – because Trump
Slate – because why not

Sackofcheese
Sackofcheese
1 month ago
Reply to  Parsko

Today’s twitter crash out from Mr. Musk says otherwise for that second option.

Parsko
Parsko
1 month ago
Reply to  Sackofcheese

I was like 2 hours too soon on that one.

JDE
JDE
1 month ago
Reply to  Parsko

I think the Slate thing will do ok at first and fizzle out fast. Tesla needs a lot to fully recover, but at least everyone wants to use their network of chargers still, so they might become a 7-11.

BYD sounds like they might not survive even China…

Cheats McCheats
Cheats McCheats
1 month ago

Toyota, Honda, Kia/Hyundai.

Ford and GM will plod along as usual mid pack performers.

Scott
Scott
1 month ago

As always Matt, thanks for yet more enjoyable morning-coffee reading… a good way to start the day (now that Fry’s newspaper ads are no longer a thing 🙁 ). The 1980s being my musically formative years, of course, I’m deeply connected to anything from the Eurythmics, so thanks for that too! 🙂

BTW, I think you meant Aston Martin Rapide, not Rapid. Though that would be a great name for someone’s zippy little EV city car. I couldn’t find an email address specifically for you, hence my mention of the type here. I understand of course if you guys don’t want to get more emails, so not linking your name/pic to an addy makes sense.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
1 month ago

I think Hyundai/Kia/Genesis and Toyota will be the biggest winners, and for different reasons. Hyundai’s approach to electrification was just right. They developed their own, good, unique ground up EVs that the market took to, but they also offer hybrids and PHEVs on lots of their volume sellers. Santa Fe? Available as ICE, PHEV, and a traditional hybrid. Tucson? Available as ICE, PHEV, and a traditional hybrid.

Palisade? Now available as a hybrid. You want a big EV instead? EV9/Ioniq 9 are available. I feel like the “choose the level of electrification that’s right for you” approach is a super smart one. BMW currently offers something similar but in a different segment. This way customers who’ve been smacked with culture war propaganda about EVs on both sides can still be happy.

They’re not forcing you to buy an EV and they’re not forcing you into an inefficient ICE vehicle. Everyone wins. Obviously we’ll have to wait and see how tariffs affect this, but they manufacture a lot of their cars in the US already. I think they’re in a good position…but the wildcards are their seemingly never ending QC issues and abysmal dealerships.

Toyota took the right approach to EVs as far as the market is concerned. There’s conflicting evidence as to whether or not what they’ve done has been better or worse for the environment, so I’ll leave that up to you…but waiting on going all in on EVs, focusing on hybrids, and making incremental improvements to their BEV tech has worked out well.

Everyone wants hybrids right now, and they’ve (sort of) got them. Unfortunately since they’re Toyota they’re artificially limiting how many they make to drive up demand and let their dealerships mark everything up…but if you’re willing to wait, find a dealership that doesn’t suck, and put your name on a list you can definitely get them at MSRP.

But while no one was looking they suddenly dropped competitive BEVs. The bees is now up to snuff and the upcoming CHR has an NACS port, 300ish horsepower, and 300ish miles of range. It also looks neat. I think they’re going to sell a surprising amount of them and suddenly no one will be screaming into the void about how Toyota doesn’t take EVs seriously.

To be fair tariffs could also fuck them, but TACO, etc. We shall see.

Sackofcheese
Sackofcheese
1 month ago

If Hyundai/Kia could fix their dealer network, I maybe could consider one. I am the target demographic for two of their products (Elantra N and Tellusade) but every time I have set foot in any of the dealerships, I’m treated awfully from the sales team. They all seem to be stuck in the “We can finance anyone with a heartbeat, no credit, no problem” mindset that makes dealerships such a pain to deal with. One tried making me fill out a credit report to test drive a used Telluride, even though I was ready to buy a new one that day. I just don’t like putting miles on a new car unless I am going to be the person to buy it. We go into a Mazda or Honda dealership, and they treat my wife, and I like actual adults. Hence why we have a CX9 and a Type R, and shopping for a CX90 or Pilot to replace the CX9

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
1 month ago
Reply to  Sackofcheese

Yeah I love my Kona N but the experience of getting it in the first place was really rough. I was initially shopping for an Elantra or Veloster N and skeezy Hyundai dealerships were treating them like super cars. I found an EN I liked, it was $2500 over MSRP, and they told me it wasn’t a markup but was for the….wait for it….”Cilajet coating”.

I asked for a receipt that the work had actually been done and told them what the internet said the procedure costs (hint: not $2500). I said I’d pay exactly what it cost if they can prove it had actually happened. They then went radio silent.

I found another EN I liked, test drove it, and had a great time. I was ready to buy it then and there. When I walked back into the dealership I noticed a half assedly smacked on post it note that said “+$5,000” beneath the monroney. I said I was a buyer at MSRP.

The sales manager then tried the total bullshit “well everyone is paying markups these days it’s the new normal” spiel, which I then said was BS. I told him the car was listed at MSRP online and that they needed to honor it. He then started screaming and berating me, and I wound up walking out mid tirade as he was shouting insults at me that echoed through the whole showroom.

Eventually I found a dealership that wasn’t ass and bought a Kona N (once the wife found out there was a CUV version of the Ns that’s all she wrote), but the dealership was more than an hour outside of DC with traffic, and I wasn’t going to to make that trek to have it serviced.

So I found a closer dealership and my experiences with their service department have been…interesting I guess? One time when I was there there was a couple that was making out in front of children. Another time I watched a customer have to be escorted out as she berated the poor service techs because they told her they’d have to wait on a part. Etc.

Anyway their dealerships are still the fucking Wild West and if they want to be taken seriously and not seen as the bargain brand they needed to do something about it yesterday.

Sackofcheese
Sackofcheese
1 month ago

I once made the mistake of driving 2 hours one way to test drive a MY18 leftover Elantra GT Hatch, after explicitly telling the salesman over the phone I wanted to test drive to see if I even liked the car. I got there and they wouldn’t let me test drive without purchasing because it was a manual. I showed up in my manual NA miata…….

JDE
JDE
1 month ago

I will Say the Genesis buying experience was pretty good, perhaps that is why they will not work on or provide Genesis parts at hyundai/kia dealers anymore.

That being said the service department experience is still very much Kia/Hyundai. It really depends on the dealer.

Ram sales guys were pretty terrible. Very much almost walked out with the bait and switch pricing they attempted.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
1 month ago
Reply to  JDE

Next time I buy I’m hammering out the deal before I even show up. I have absolutely no time for dealership shit. Er…dealershit? Lol

M SV
M SV
1 month ago

I would be careful with that too. I’ve done that over text driven a few hours and turns out the dealer is more slimey then probably all the others I passed. So bad you call the brand and tell them how bad they are and they probably do nothing. Then contact the state AG office and they investigate and file charges. The slimey ones will say anything to get you in the door and not honor anything. Doing cash deals and showing up with a cashers check seems to be the way to go. Credit unions will often finance like that. Still can go sideways.

JDE
JDE
1 month ago
Reply to  M SV

My guy in person tried to start a grand over the price right in front of him advertised on their website on his computer. Basically told me it was online pricing….I told him it was false advertising and if that was the case(even though there was no mention of that on the computer screen still in front of the dude) I would step out of his office and do it all on my phone and remove his chance for any commission…that worked. But damn.

M SV
M SV
1 month ago
Reply to  JDE

I’ve been though that one too. I had to go to fat guy on the podium choking on chicken nuggets to say give me the advertisemed price. They really think they are the smartest people its kind of sad if you don’t laugh about how dumb they are. I knew a guy that used to go in and insult them if he thought they were going to be a problem. It worked surprisingly well and got them on the defensive. Good place to take out your frustrations and pent up rage. He would go buy something from a dealership once a year just to let it all out. He got some pretty decent deals. I’ve had them say the car was stolen too but one time the manager knew I didn’t believe it. He showed the camera footage and offered the same deal on another car. It’s basically psyops with idiots.

Last edited 1 month ago by M SV
Harvey Park Avenue
Harvey Park Avenue
1 month ago

> I feel like the “choose the level of electrification that’s right for you” approach is a super smart one

An astute observation.

Ron, on the reservation
Ron, on the reservation
1 month ago

By the end of this year, I’d love to see a music video of “the Donalds’ Trade/Tariff negotiators” marching to the sound of “SWEET DREAMS”. With smiles on their faces.

Hallucinogenic Jack
Hallucinogenic Jack
1 month ago

I really don’t understand pulling back on electric car investments. It’s the most shortsighted trend in the automobile industry since GM’s division consolidation madness in the 1980’s. You simply cannot ignore the efficiency and scale benefits in the long run. The Chinese are going to eat everyone’s lunches.

4jim
4jim
1 month ago

It is shortsighted. I also know that EVs, wind, solar are considered by many to be effeminate, anti-masculine and against their ICE powered culture. Burning stuff you cut or drill from the earth is manly and renewables are seen as dirty hippy girly stuff and as a country we are more focused on protecting fragile masculinity than making longterm good decisions.

NC Miata NA
NC Miata NA
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

Also, we need all our cars to run on gas so all the electricity can be saved for those sweet, sweet data centers the tech bros say we need.

M K
M K
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

A surprising number of preppers I know (which is also surprising that I know a number of preppers..) have really come around to the idea of EV’s and solar. Turns out that its way easier to make your own electricity than it is to make liquid fuels. Even makes it easier to get off the grid. I’m guessing our Mad Max future is going to involve a lot more EVs than we expected.

4jim
4jim
1 month ago
Reply to  M K

The overlanding maga I know like the solar for the camp put still want ICE for the forest roads. I can see how preppers would be pro off grid solar.

Cerberus
Cerberus
1 month ago
Reply to  M K

That’s another reason I was originally excited for EVs. I’m not a prepper, but I do like having some personal resiliency. Unfortunately, I hate everything they’re making (TBF, I also hate most of the ICE cars for similar reasons—disposability, nannies, disconnection, lack of choice outside of CUV in sizes A-D, and giant touchscreens for everything).

Torque
Torque
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

When it comes to power generation “green” aka hippy does. Not. Matter
“Green” as in cost Does.
Solar power generation has reached a price point per kw that it is lower than the cost foe a coal fired power plant to transmit their power through the grid to the power requested destination
That is a game over economic point.
We will continue to see coal fired power plants shit down
Solar + grid scale battery backup systems are replacing peaker power plants
Gas fired power plants will be replaced (by solar + battery) next
Eventually solar + battery backup will replace nuclear as well

Tony Seba has been beating this drum since at least 2012 and the reality of the power generation transformation realized has nearly been identical to his future looking predictions since that time.
Note: Tony has had similar future looking predictions for EVs, autonomous driving and precision fermentation

4jim
4jim
1 month ago
Reply to  Torque

I know all of that. I have been teaching environmental content in some form for 30 years. I also know that logic/facts do not matter to many. Perception and intrenched outdated talking points are what the naysayers will stick to. They also see EV as cultural genocide for their ICE powered rural lifestyles.

Torque
Torque
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

Yeah the mental clinging to outdated incorrect information which is being used as legit misinformation / propaganda to try to sell people on federal support of a reality that no longer exists is both understanding (as technological shifts follow exponential S curves and people think linearlly) and really really bizarre to me.

It takes no more than 5 min. internet searching to confirm solar/wind/batteries now contribute more to the power supply than coal and more than gas.

William Domer
William Domer
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

Now that is a genocide I can get behind.

Cranberry
Cranberry
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

It’s like the invention of the shopping cart. Men back then apparently considered it effeminate.

“Fellas, is it gay to use a cart?”

Andy Individual
Andy Individual
1 month ago
Reply to  Cranberry

It’s fine if you cross dress properly. Do you really think those were all housewives down at the pantry mart?

Wuffles Cookie
Wuffles Cookie
1 month ago

Well, given that most automakers are crapping out indistinguishable CUVs with serious software and interface issues as their primary EV offerings, it might not be a bad thing for them to step back and figure out what their philosophy is going to actually be.

Not all investment is good investment, and it’s really hard for the C-suite to explain sunk-cost fallacies on an earnings call.

Last edited 1 month ago by Wuffles Cookie
UmbraTitan
UmbraTitan
1 month ago
Reply to  Wuffles Cookie

Sure, that’s what you get when you compete to be first to market. I’d rather have a gen 2 something that’s got the kinks ironed out. And you can’t get a third generation without learning from the first two. Given how relatively young EVs are relative to ICE vehicles, I expect there are still some big strides to be made and want to see the development continue.

And you nailed the problem right there: Earnings Calls. If the stock isn’t going up faster than last quarter, it’s a failure! Long term strategy be damned! We need profit NOW!

4jim
4jim
1 month ago
Reply to  UmbraTitan

Yes, People want to ignore that ICE have been refined and supported by the government for over 100 years and they want EV to be in the same place in 10.

Cerberus
Cerberus
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

I’m probably not typical (I rarely am), but my problem is that far too many of the issues are completely unnecessary, generally tied to software driven electrified garbage, often less safe, replacing long-proven and serviceable mechanical solutions. Of course, ICE cars are being built similarly. Normal kinds of legitimate teething problems that come from deploying necessary new tech I can accept (even if I might not buy it myself), but not when it’s unnecessary and undesirable tech for the sake of it. So, IOW, I’d be very interested in a Slate sports car (though I probably drive too much for the range that price point would allow).

Toecutter
Toecutter
1 month ago
Reply to  Cerberus

Tech is what is holding EVs from their true potential for longevity. These could easily be 1 million mile vehicles. The established industry has been dragging their feet for decades because of this.

A Slate sports car, Miata-sized or slightly smaller, sold as a streamliner coupe, could probably achieve 250+ miles highway range for a pack that is 3/4 the size of that which is in the truck. The curb weight could easily have a 2 as the first digit.

I forsee such a thing being less expensive to make than the truck given less materials, less size, and less battery. The 201 horsepower drive system would be plenty for a 2,500 lb EV, which would allow a 0-60 mph time under 6 seconds.

Jason H.
Jason H.
1 month ago

Yes but the Chinese have official decade long industrial plans and US companies plan based on quarterly or yearly profits and our government policies can change every 2 years.

Or more broadly- as Ray Dalio said in a book I read recently- The Chinese think 100 years is a very short time and Americans think it is a very long time.

Dan Bee
Dan Bee
1 month ago

This. And American factory workers and suppliers will suffer most of all.

LMCorvairFan
LMCorvairFan
1 month ago

Toyota, GM, Honda.

Spikedlemon
Spikedlemon
1 month ago

The way the game is being played: those companies who import whole vehicles without any reliance on aluminum/steel within the US, or have to deal with taxes on USMCA “free trade” items will have the best days.

And, likely, in the longer term, those manufacturers who’s revenue is not as tied to US.

Jason H.
Jason H.
1 month ago
Reply to  Spikedlemon

This. Local manufacturing just got more expensive yesterday.

Even the old stupid 25% steel tariffs kill US manufacturing jobs. The did in the 00’s when Bush tried them, they did in the 10’s when Trump tried the exact same thing Bush tried, and they did again when Trump doubled down and went back to his same stupid playbook in his second term.

Spikedlemon
Spikedlemon
1 month ago
Reply to  Jason H.

“Imported steel went up by 50%, you say? I can raise my prices by 45% and still look like a bargain!”

Jason H.
Jason H.
1 month ago
Reply to  Spikedlemon

Exactly that but this year prices when up 20% before Trump’s first 25% tariff even officially kicked in.

Steel is a commodity with price set by the market. When you artificially raise the market price everyone goes along.

Permanentwaif
Permanentwaif
1 month ago

Summary: Sean Bean always dies!!. Everything sucks for everybody!

A Tangle of Kraken
A Tangle of Kraken
1 month ago
Reply to  Permanentwaif

“Everything sucks for everybody” concisely summarizes A Song of Ice and Fire as well as “But Loki had an idea” summarizes Norse mythology.

Last edited 1 month ago by A Tangle of Kraken
Cerberus
Cerberus
1 month ago

The Chinese ability to make thing cheaper at massive scale is no mystery: not caring about profits in the interest of gaining market share, reduced R&D as part of the deal for outside parties to access their market and outright theft, slave labor, government backing, and lack of environmental regulations.

Spikedlemon
Spikedlemon
1 month ago
Reply to  Cerberus

RE: environmental – working with a mix of Chinese-based suppliers of the years: there are some things they’re far tighter and better at for protections – and far ahead of the US – and other things that just don’t seem as important to them.

To bring it back: Michigan has an oil refinery upwind, and immediately across the interstate from a residential neighbourhood in Detroit. That’s some-kind-of-f’d-up there.

Cerberus
Cerberus
1 month ago
Reply to  Spikedlemon

I’ve heard they’ve improved in some directions and anything is better than not. I hope they keep moving to improve environmental concerns. Wish they’d do more about human rights, but at this point, I’m more worried about my own backyard in both regards.

When I lived in Detroit, every once in a while, it seemed like the whole city would smell like sour milk. IDK if it had anything to do with a refinery (IDK why a refinery would smell like that) or if there was some massive dairy processing operation I never saw, but Detroit almost seemed like a different country than New England.

Harvey Park Avenue
Harvey Park Avenue
1 month ago
Reply to  Spikedlemon

Do I need to hazard a guess about the socioeconomic makeup of that neighbourhood?

Jason H.
Jason H.
1 month ago
Reply to  Cerberus

That was the state of affairs 10-20 years ago. More recently they have cracked down on emissions and moved ahead of some of those old JV partners on tech. There is a reason China no longer requires foreign auto companies to do JVs with a local company – they no longer need that tech transfer.

If the US was smart we would be doing to the Chinese what we did to the Japanese in the 80’s and put caps on the number of cars they import. That way the bread and butter models are made here but we can still get low volume models imported that don’t sell in volumes to support local assembly. Cars like the CT6 that was killed in the US due to tariffs

We would also require Chinese companies to JV so we could learn from them and get that technology transfer going the other way.

Cerberus
Cerberus
1 month ago
Reply to  Jason H.

Right, this was a several-decade process. They don’t need foreign info anymore and now they’re leading in some areas, but that’s how they got to that position so fast. The West is to blame for most of it and everyone saw it coming, but nobody cared as the people who could do anything about it were making too much money and knew it was someone else’s problem in the future, as is almost everything in the nearsighted West. Setting aside the human rights issues, I don’t blame China as that was the smart play.

I think your proposal sounds pretty fair. I don’t see banning them from the market outright as a good longterm solution or even one that’s viable. Banning basically hands control over while your proposal retains some control and manages it.

Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
1 month ago

To my Dearest Hardibird,

I write to you yet again from the trenches on the front lines, I dare not say from where exactly as I do wish to limit the amount of redactions my superiors shall make. It has been a long and tiresome 3 years of war amongst the car brands and a war that was started for causes unbeknownst to me or my compatriots. It feels like just yesterday that I was playing ball with Jonny Chrysler, but alas it has been a year since he died being stranded in a foxhole alone with only 3 rounds of ammo, his sacrifice has seemingly gone unnoticed by the French commanders. Alas, the Dodge brothers went on a rescue party only to also never come back, we still fear the worse for them as it has been said they went in the wrong direction and fell off the cliff.

You’ll be relieved to know that Ram has found some of his old gusto and appears to be firing on all 8 cylinders again, but he too has developed a tick from the shellshock.

Still duty calls and we must fight on, through the rust and oil stains for freedom beckons.

Forever foreword and sometimes backwards,
Yours truly,
Jeep

Tbird
Tbird
1 month ago

I just picture RAM as Animal Mother from Full Metal Jacket.

4jim
4jim
1 month ago
Reply to  Tbird

100% yes!

ESBMW@Work
ESBMW@Work
1 month ago

Saving Private Plymouth

Torque
Torque
1 month ago
Reply to  ESBMW@Work

Plymouth dead
Chrysler (1 singular model) will soon be dead
Ram will continue
Jeep people always find value in this brand
The rest of stallantis!?!
Fiat will likely continue
The rest \/○\/ aka I don’t know

The “connecting the dots” YouTube channel has a recent 50 min. video on how why GM is dead already killed by their own hands / SAIC eating them from the inside out

Who will benefit the most? Hard to say but I would guess BYD amd Geeley.
BYD has their battery expertise, an incredible 2nd and 3rd tier partner network, as well as 5.5M in sales over the last year and has sales in Asia, Europe, Australia, South America and Mexico.
Geeley has taken the old GM playback of a large portfolio of brands including of course Volvo and MG that allows sales in the US and brand recognition in Europe (including the UK)

Nlpnt
Nlpnt
1 month ago
Reply to  Torque

I’d put DS on the chopping block for political reasons. Namely because they need to cut a French brand but can’t cut a heritage French brand (Peugeot or Citroen).

William Domer
William Domer
1 month ago
Reply to  Torque

BYD. We will make up for the losses per sale by increasing volume. Next stop on this train is India. I love/hate my 300RX with 216,000 miles on it. 17 mpg. At $3 per gallon I can score about 200 gallons for the monthly price of a new car. Over 3000 miles per month. May it last forever!

Lockleaf
Lockleaf
1 month ago

I don’t think I properly understand what defines a winner in the Car Wars. Is it total market share? Is it market share gained by adding new or replacing models?

If its growth of Market Share, then Stellantis stands in a good position to show strong growth, if only because they’ve lost so much. So if they can find their feet in the next 2 years, their growth opportunities are strong.

Kiyundai will probably continue to do well. they’ve shown strong design and are constantly growing in the EV side, something I expect will continue.

Tbird
Tbird
1 month ago

Toyota: tops in the growing hybrid sector, global reach and market penetration. They have overall a newly updated product portfolio and are likley flexible enough to pivot anywhere. They bet big on hybrid and it seems to be paying off as EV incentives evaporate. Solid reputation.

AssMatt
AssMatt
1 month ago

Torn asunder, tossed aside.

Last edited 1 month ago by AssMatt
4jim
4jim
1 month ago

I think the winners will be those people who have newer, low milage, desirable models of cars to sell as used cars, as their cars will not depreciate quickly.

JP15
JP15
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

But then what do they replace those cars with? New ones?

To me, I see anyone who has a reliable car they can hang onto the next four years as a winner, and just not venture into replacement vehicles at all.

4jim
4jim
1 month ago
Reply to  JP15

People do not want to sell, just want to know their resale value is high. (joking??)

JP15
JP15
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

Haha, yeah, I get that. I know plenty of people obsessed with resale value on cars they’re never getting rid of.

Sackofcheese
Sackofcheese
1 month ago
Reply to  JP15

*Looks at Beater Track Day NA Miata in garage with collector car insurance policy*

Last edited 1 month ago by Sackofcheese
Mike B
Mike B
1 month ago
Reply to  JP15

That’s Toyota 4×4 owners. Plan on driving the thing into the ground but always going on about how good the resale is compared to competitors.

LMCorvairFan
LMCorvairFan
1 month ago
Reply to  JP15

That’s my plan for the foreseeable future. ‘Might’ pick up a hybrid CRV or RAV4 as a second car if the prices don’t get too stupid.

Last edited 1 month ago by LMCorvairFan
Unimaginative Username
Unimaginative Username
1 month ago
Reply to  JP15

This – have all the cars I need and I’m prepared to keep most of them running for quite some time. Next purchase is probably a mini truck, but I can wait until Slate or someone else figures out that there’s still a market for sensible trucks with usable 6′ beds.

Last edited 1 month ago by Unimaginative Username
Mike B
Mike B
1 month ago
Reply to  4jim

2024 4Runner owners living like kings.

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