Home » Why EVs Are Still Super Cheap Even With Oil Above $100 A Barrel

Why EVs Are Still Super Cheap Even With Oil Above $100 A Barrel

2024 Chevrolet Equinox Ev Lt

I grew up in Houston, which means I’ve always got an eye on energy markets. Energy, like oxygen, is something everyone needs but rarely thinks about until the lack of it becomes an emergency. We’re in such an emergency, and for some, there’s a potential cure within easy reach. A cure that few people are taking.

If Friday’s Morning Dump was all about how the car industry doesn’t need another crisis, today’s is about the silver lining. It’s not much of a silver lining for everyone, but I think it might bode well for a few automakers. They could use a break. As could Canada, especially as we look forward to a likely contentious meeting to either reconfirm or break the USMCA.

Vidframe Min Top
Vidframe Min Bottom

Renault was one of the automakers that was mostly immune to the downturn in Chinese sales for European cars. Why? It was focused on Europe. Now that might not be going so well. Hell, even the Pope isn’t driving around in a European car these days.

This Could Be The First Energy Crisis Where Someone Will Have Abundant And Cheap Electric Cars

When it comes to energy, there’s one economist that I look to more than any other. Phillip Verlerger, out of Denver, had a piece out on Thursday in Energy Intelligence, called “When Energy Disruptions Strike.” There’s a nice big chart that looks at all the disruptions to the market, five of which include Iran directly.

Verleger concludes that the complexity of the market might hit LNG and Diesel extra hard:

Distillate markets today are also particularly sensitive to supply changes, with the global market for the product already tight and the Iranian attacks forcing refineries to shut down, causing further tightening.

This will prompt hoarding behavior, which, historically has been the activity that drives prices sharply higher when supplies are disrupted. Every firm that holds inventory or has supplies on the way will want to reevaluate the likelihood of easily obtaining additional supplies — or at a reasonable price. The rule in these situations is simple: buy more, sell less.

Moreover, data centers in critical US areas, especially the Mid-Atlantic, will also likely enter the market to replenish stocks used during the January cold spell. Price does not seem to be a barrier for these buyers. One should not be surprised if cash distillate prices rise by $1 per gallon relative to distillate futures in addition to any crude price increases over the next four weeks as data centers try to coax stocks away from refiners. On a cash basis in New York Harbor, distillate could jump from around $2.70 per gallon to $4 due to hoarding.

As if you needed another reason to be wary of data centers.

Looking back on the more recent market events, what’s interesting is that there weren’t necessarily a large number of longer-range, affordable EVs on the market. The Ukraine War had a small impact, initially, although the effects were more strongly felt in Europe and centered around cutting off the flow of Russian gas.

This time, it’s the war in Iran, and crude prices are already way up, as the Associated Press reports, with Brent crude getting close to $119.50 per barrel before retreating closer to $100. WTI has been around $103 after also nearly hitting $120. By comparison, WTI was at around $60 a month ago.

Estimates vary, but this could mean a national average of $4 per gallon by summer if something doesn’t change. That assumes this isn’t quickly resolved. If it isn’t, and prices go up, will this finally mean that people will want EVs? That’s my question, because so far this year EV sales are down, representing about 5-6% of the total market, compared to as much as 12% at various points last year.

Energy prices were stable last year, so it was the potential loss of the EV tax credit that drove the surge in sales. What about this year? Will gas prices actually get people into the market? So far, carmakers don’t think so, as discounting has been heavy. While it depends on the model, Automotive News has seen incentives that eclipse last year’s tax credit deals:

Mohawk Chevrolet in Ballston Spa, N.Y., has added a nearly $6,000 dealer discount on top of customer cash on a 2026 Chevy Equinox EV RS, bringing the advertised price to roughly $33,000, or about the starting price of an entry-level model.

Andy Guelcher, dealer principal, said incentives are needed both to generate demand where it is low and keep older models from sitting too long on the lot.

“Right now, it’s necessary,” Guelcher said. “How long it will be necessary, I don’t know.”

American Honda is offering a $10,000 sales credit this month — down from $11,000 in February — on the 2025 Prologue EV to spur sales of a model the automaker said “is in very limited inventory.” It also has a smaller credit on 2026 models.

While EV inventory remains high at this moment (168 days), automakers have largely cut production, so this might be a blip in time.

Screen Shot 2026 03 09 At 10.06.38 Am
Screenshot: Mohawk Chevrolet

If you were somehow still in the market and didn’t take advantage of the tax credit, that Equinox referenced above is still for sale. It’s possible that you might live in a market where it makes sense to save on gas by spending on electrons. At the same time, as Verleger points out, natural gas might get hit hard, which could then drive up electricity prices.

It’s very hard to predict human behavior in this case because it’s hard to predict market forces. I do think that there is a period of time where there’s enough aging stock of EVs sitting around that you might make a deal.

What’s going to be interesting is if there’s a prolonged period of higher energy prices. Automakers aren’t as incentivized to make electric cars in the United States because they’re not trying to hit average fuel economy targets. All that old stock of 2025 models? It’s going to dwindle eventually. While some automakers are cancelling plans and cutting back, GM might be in a great position with the new Bolt. Maybe Nissan with the now-better Leaf?

EVs are cheap because there are still a lot of them left over from an increase in production in 2024 and 2025 combined with low gas prices. By this summer, there might be fewer affordable EVs and higher energy prices. Are dealers going to be putting $6,000 in cash on the hood of an Equinox if gas prices are $5 a gallon in New York? I doubt it.

Instead Of One Agreement, USMCA Will Probably Be Two Different Ones

As previously mentioned here, the North American automotive industry is highly interconnected. This is a feature, not a bug, and it’s a feature of both NAFTA and, later, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The USMCA came from President Trump’s first term, and he described it as “the largest, fairest, most balanced, and modern trade agreement ever achieved” at the time. So much for that!

Canada’s government and the government of the United States are a bit at odds right now, and Canada is looking for partners who make up for geographic proximity with, say, a lack of meetings with Canadian separatists in Alberta.

A report this weekend in The Washington Post via The Detroit News shows that the USMCA might just become a deal with Canada and a deal with Mexico. Why?

Jamieson Greer, Trump’s chief trade negotiator, who will be leading the USMCA review, recently told CBC that Canada should accept “some level of high tariff” on Canadian exports to the U.S. while opening its market to U.S. dairy products.

“Reshoring didn’t happen fast enough,” he added, when asked to describe U.S. complaints about USMCA.

A reworked deal that resulted in higher tariffs on U.S.-Canada trade would upend auto industry supply chains that often send parts across North American borders up to eight times before they are installed in a vehicle.

Fun times.

Renault Is Going To Cut

Pictures Renault Avantime 2001 2 (1)
Photo: Renault

Renault has had good moments lately, but being reliant on Europe doesn’t seem quite as helpful if the European market is going to get kicked in the shins again by a global energy crisis. The mood at Renault right now is cut-cut-cut.

Per Bloomberg:

As Renault SA’s former procurement head, Francois Provost was used to keeping a tight grip on the purse strings. Now as chief executive officer, he’s trying to convince investors that the automaker must become more like its lower-cost Chinese rivals.

A renewed focus on slashing expenses is expected to be part of a plan Provost will lay out Tuesday at a strategy day near Paris. The CEO has been looking to use more technology from Chinese partner Geely to lower development costs. But efficiency gains alone may not be enough to fix Renault’s worsening sales performance, which has contributed to a 20% slump in the share price this year.

“Provost is a cost-cutter,” and his decisions and comments on strategy so far haven’t been convincing, said Pierre-Olivier Essig, an analyst at AIR Capital. “No forward vision is what worries us the most.”

There’s no way for a French company to get its labor costs down to Chinese levels, right?

Da Pope Gets An Explorer Hybrid

Cq5dam.web.1280.1280 (2)
Source: Ford

There’s an American Pontiff. Even better, Da Pope is from Chicago, which is the funniest city in America for the head of the Catholic church to be from for some reason. The head of Ford is also famously Catholic, and so the company delivered a custom Ford Explorer to Pope Leo XIV in Vatican City:

The Explorer was customized with a 3.3L V6 hybrid powertrain and 10-speed hybrid transmission, as well as an antenna that’s compatible with the European broadcast radio system. Vanity license plates read “DA POPE” and “LEO XIV.”

On the inside, design details boast Chicago-to-Vatican pride.

The Farleys personally delivered the car during a private audience at the Vatican on Feb. 28.

“He noticed and appreciated all the personal touches,” Farley said of the Pontiff’s reaction. “We even took a quick drive, and I can confirm the Holy Father enjoys driving a sporty ride.”

That’s fun!

Cq5dam.web.1280.1280 (1)
Source: Ford

Also, I think this is the only civilian-spec Explorer hybrid for MY 2026.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

Feels like a good morning for “It’s A Hit” by Rilo Kiley.

The Big Question

How expensive do you think gas will be on July 4th, 2026?

Top photo: Chevrolet

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Eggsalad
Eggsalad
5 days ago

“I mean, it’s one gallon of gas, Michael. What could it possibly cost, ten dollars?”

The current president, and most of his lackeys, have never pumped a gallon of gas in their lifetimes, and neither know nor care what it costs.

4moremazdas
Member
4moremazdas
5 days ago
Reply to  Eggsalad

This is such an under-emphasized point with Trump. Whenever he talks about any issue that working class people deal with, people need to be reminded that no matter what he says, he has never experienced that hardship and never will. He’s never had to budget for groceries, or save for college, or buy gas, or rent while trying to buy a home, etc ad nauseum.

Strangek
Member
Strangek
5 days ago
Reply to  Eggsalad

I’m not convinced he’s ever even driven a car much less pump gas.

Jatkat
Jatkat
5 days ago

This is why the PHEV/EREV is the way. You don’t need to rely on that garbage charging infrastructure, but can avoid the pump for the vast majority of your driving needs.
Plus gas was already absurd here in WA, hence why I bought my Volt to begin with.

Drive By Commenter
Member
Drive By Commenter
5 days ago

In my area Costco will be $3.85. Everyone else will be at $4.

Something says I get more questions about towing with my Tesla when camping this summer. It’ll pass anything. Except a Supercharger.

M. Park Hunter
Member
M. Park Hunter
5 days ago

Way to recycle an old joke! Now that’s environmental responsibility.

Last edited 5 days ago by M. Park Hunter
Rich Mason
Rich Mason
5 days ago

Gas price may depend on the lifespan of the big Orange Turd…

RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
Member
RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
5 days ago

$3.25/gallon. Things will get moving through the strait in the next 1-2 weeks, but the damage to the infrastructure plus fear of additional attacks will keep the price elevated through the summer.

To those looking to make a knee jerk reaction and switch to an EV, do the math first. The only time it makes sense is when you need to replace a gas car. Otherwise, the fuel savings typically aren’t enough to offset the costs associated with the swap.

I’ve seen a handful of cases (long commutes with less than 10MPG trucks) where the fuel savings covers the car payment plus insurance and electricity.

4moremazdas
Member
4moremazdas
5 days ago

What makes you say traffic will start up in the strait that soon? Not trying to argue the point, I just haven’t seen any predictions about it and don’t know what would need to take place for that to start. It seems like to me the war would have to wind down before Iran stops applying pressure there.

RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
Member
RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
5 days ago
Reply to  4moremazdas

Two of the people I follow on YouTube are experts in shipping “What’s Going on With Shipping” and the oil industry “Mr. Global”.

The shipping channel has talked about the strait not being physically closed, but no one has adequate insurance to cover the potential risk. The shipping insurance industry is getting coverage issued for the risks. Plus, shipping rates are increasing rapidly to offset those insurance costs. Eventually there will be enough financial incentive for someone to make a run at the strait. Hopefully with military escort, which is the other YouTube channel.

Last week, Mr. Global called that strategic reserves would be opened up this week. His prediction for next week is that the nations most impacted will have warships heading to the area to help ships get through. Asia is very dependent on the Strait of Hormuz and they can’t afford to be without imports for that long. These aren’t his predictions either. He was reading from studies about how the world would react in such a situation.

4moremazdas
Member
4moremazdas
5 days ago

Interesting. I would still think that such a scenario would be seen as really risky and fluid, which would prompt more of the “buy more, sell less” strategy from refineries.

Plus between insurance costs and daily military costs adding up to keep traffic flowing it seems like that will also push prices up, although to a lesser extent than cutting off supply altogether.

TheStigsUglyCousin
TheStigsUglyCousin
5 days ago

Sal Mercogliano is outstanding

JaredTheGeek
Member
JaredTheGeek
5 days ago

The President said we will insure the oil tankers with our tax dollars.

*Jason*
*Jason*
5 days ago

Even if the strait reopens it will take months to get the oil fields back online and they may not come back at the old volume.

Shutting in a oil well is a big gamble but one that companies had to take as there was no place to put the oil they were pumping.

FleetwoodBro
Member
FleetwoodBro
5 days ago

Currently $5.15 per gallon in my neighborhood now. Prediction is over $6.00.

SNL-LOL Jr
Member
SNL-LOL Jr
5 days ago

The cost of solar and battery storage has come down so fast. I figured that even in the sunny Northeast (/s) where I reside, it will cost me less than $10K to DIY install a simple solar backup system.

That will be enough, at least in my use case, to never have to use grid electricity for my EV.

At current electricity rates it will take 7 years to break even. It’s worth thinking about it now.

My 0.02 Cents
My 0.02 Cents
5 days ago
Reply to  SNL-LOL Jr

Probably less as prices keep rising. it turned out to be 5 and a half years for me in SoCal. and that was back in 2019.

The free power just keeps on giving, I’ve not bought gas for transportation in 6 years, people forget to add that metric in their calculations.

Hgrunt
Hgrunt
5 days ago
Reply to  My 0.02 Cents

Are you on SoCal Edison? Pacific Gas and Electric here. The for-profit california utilities are absolutely awful

In 2019, my partner and I spec’d out a $50,000 Tesla Solar project. They were so insanely incompetent, the project manager who handled my case that day (we never talked to the same person twice) cancelled the project

Even though we spec’d out a hugely expensive system, the electric rates meant the system would end up paying itself off within 5-7 years

My partner ended up building a DIY system for a couple thousand dollars. Reliability is iffy, no net metering, but it’s paid for itself several times over

99 Sport
Member
99 Sport
5 days ago
Reply to  Hgrunt

I thought it was illegal to DIY a system connected to the grid – Due to the risk of electrocuting a line worker in a power outage. I could easily build a system (built an awesome electrical system for my van) and I’ve done a ton of unpermitted work around the house from a 100 amp sub panel to natural gas lines to water lines, but the rationale for professional solar / battery backup installation to not electrocute a line worker makes sense to me. So that’s one DIY project I’m not inclined to do.

Is your solar grid connected?

My 0.02 Cents
My 0.02 Cents
4 days ago
Reply to  Hgrunt

Yes, I’m with SCE on NEM 2.0, and they suck big time. They’ve changed the way they charge for power and being connected. I’m in month 8 of 12 I have sent back net 324kW/h to SCE, but currently owe $453.
We are coming into the best 4 months for over production, so we’ll see if I can get rid of the $453.
I have no battery, although prices have halved since I looked a few years ago. If I added 20kW/h of battery storage I could be off grid for about eight and a half months of the year.
I’m about to replace my A/C with a 20 year newer heat pump system, so That might drop my A/C loads.

Congrats on building your own system is it tied to the other system? That must have been interesting with PGE.

I’ve seen a couple of people take EV car batteries and use them on their houses as you can get significantly more storage that way. My off lease Kia EV6 sold for about $23k and there’s 77kW/h wrapped around a car for the price of 20kW/h

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago

This seems to be solidifying a potential car purchase for me.

My daughter needs a car and we have found a lead on what sounds like a good deal on an older Prius. I figure, until the dust settles in the Middle East, a Prius will not depreciate much. I also figure the dust won’t settle for a decade or so.

Tbird
Member
Tbird
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

Two Toyota hybrids in the current fleet, an ’08 Prius and an ’14 Camry. You will not be disappointed. Both have Moon mileage.

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  Tbird

This one has over 250k. There’s a guy in town that gets Priuses that are not working right and goes through a rebuild process. Rebuild Battery, replace water pump, rebuild ABS computer and actuator, Start working through getting the computer to accept all the goofiness. He sent me a picture of the car last weekend and the dash had every single warning light on. Now it just has one (TPS bad) and he’s working on it. Our mechanic says this guy does great work and he’s asking basically trade-in value on the car when he’s done.

Tbird
Member
Tbird
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

Same boat with my daughter’s ’08. I think it’s at 280k and most of that rebuild work was done prior to her buying it.

Last edited 5 days ago by Tbird
JT4Ever
Member
JT4Ever
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

What year is the Prius? The Generation 3 ones have a well-known head gasket issue. We’ve replaced one on our 2010 so far. It’s worth steering clear of that model run

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  JT4Ever

It’s a 2013. The issues famous for that year are head gaskets, ABS problems and ring problems. Per the dude working on the car, the water pumps were garbage and if/when they died, it would overheat quickly and warp the head. The ABS system had problems that he is fixing. As for oil useage, that is a typical Toyota thing that appears for many Toyotas from the era (including my 2004 Camry) around 200-250k miles. It’s one of the things I will have to have checked.

However, he’s asking half what Priuses of similar miles from better years are being sold for locally.

JT4Ever
Member
JT4Ever
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

Get ready for the head gasket to go, it’s past due already. Probably a matter of when, not if

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  JT4Ever

I’ll ask about it, thanks.

M. Park Hunter
Member
M. Park Hunter
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

The dust hasn’t settled for several thousand years. What’s another decade or so? Good call on the Prius.

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  M. Park Hunter

It’s never really settled, but no matter how much humans might hate each other and wish each other harm, there is always a buffering available if they can make money by playing nice.

Right now, Iran can’t make money regardless and have no reason to play nice. Since they control the Straight, they can spread the pain to all their neighbors.

(I actually spent a couple weeks in that region a couple years ago. It was strange to look out of my hotel window and see the haze of the coast of Iran in the distance.)

The dust that has kicked up now is that the big oil producers have shut off the pumps. They don’t have enough storage to put what they have and they can’t get enough ships through the Straight to get the storage low again. This means that even if someone carpet bombs the region in flowers, happiness and love tonight and everyone wants to just stand around in circles drinking Coke and singing, the fuel that the world needs for the next month or so isn’t being pumped. It’s sort of like how the Covid slowdown in car production led to a giant change in the market that we are still dealing with 5-6 years later.

M. Park Hunter
Member
M. Park Hunter
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

I was on a seminary archeological study trip in 2009 to northern Syria. We bumped into a group from Iran in a ravine coming to visit the same site. They sang for us, and we returned the favor. Smiles all around. People on the ground are great. Somehow we keep selecting stupid leaders.

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  M. Park Hunter

I remember being at a gas station in the UAE. There was a large man with a thick beard and a giant frown on his face in the station. He looked mad as hell and was dressed in traditional dress. Looked just like every typical Hollywood Arab Villain.

Then I saw this small boy running around the aisles and just being a goofy 5 year old and obviously asking for candy. Then I looked a second time at the father. The frown was hiding a smile. He was playing “mean dad” to his impish kid. I saw him carrying his kid out of the store a few minutes later and his kid was munching on candy, which I assume would be a pain to get out of the gentleman’s white outfit. I remember doing the same with my son back when my kid was that small.

I’ve been taught my entire life to fear a guy like that. From the Iran Hostages to about 900 movies (Hassan Chomp!) to the latest news stories. This gentleman looked like a cartoon villain. But he was just a dad, playing with his kid. In other words, just like me.

Beto O'Kitty
Member
Beto O'Kitty
5 days ago

Close to $4/gallon. As Mr. Tyler sings “Dream On” if you believe in sub $3/gallon.

Tbird
Member
Tbird
5 days ago
Reply to  Beto O'Kitty

Local price where I live is already at $3.69 for 87….

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago

Is it actually true that we didn’t bolster our strategic oil reserves before kicking off all of this nonsense in Iran?

Beto O'Kitty
Member
Beto O'Kitty
5 days ago

Yes down to 58 percent.

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago
Reply to  Beto O'Kitty

The fuck.

NC Miata NA
Member
NC Miata NA
5 days ago

No one could spell “strategic” at the cabinet meetings so it never made it on the list of things to consider.

Taargus Taargus
Member
Taargus Taargus
5 days ago
Reply to  NC Miata NA

Makes me miss the days of “strategery” somehow.

Kevin Rhodes
Member
Kevin Rhodes
5 days ago

I long for the good old days of “nucular” and W.. He was kind of an idiot, but at least he wasn’t in it ONLY for himself.

Taargus Taargus
Member
Taargus Taargus
5 days ago
Reply to  Kevin Rhodes

Now watch this drive!

Phil
Phil
5 days ago
Reply to  Kevin Rhodes

At the time, I didn’t think anyone could make that man look like an erudite statesman. But here we are.

Last edited 5 days ago by Phil
Kevin Rhodes
Member
Kevin Rhodes
5 days ago
Reply to  Phil

Same. I really thought we hit rock bottom. Then eight years of Obama was like a breath of fresh air. Then our national brain fell out and we stepped on it. Then we stepped on it AGAIN, with spiked shoes.

Looking back, I have at least of modicum of respect for W. – I truly believe he thought he was doing what was best for the country, even though I disagree with most of what he actually did.

Defenestrator
Member
Defenestrator
3 days ago
Reply to  Kevin Rhodes

W’s also a decent bit brighter than most people think. Dude did graduate Yale and Harvard, and insider stories imply he’s reasonably sharp. He just played up the aw shucks Texan thing because it made him relatable so people would vote for him.

Kevin Rhodes
Member
Kevin Rhodes
2 days ago
Reply to  Defenestrator

I agree. He was a legacy, but his Daddy didn’t have to buy him a degree – and he did manage to be a jet fighter pilot in the guard. No matter who Daddy is, that isn’t happening without a functioning brain.

Trump is just another sign that Idiocracy is becoming a documentary. And a triumph of cunning over actual intelligence.

Plaid Seats
Member
Plaid Seats
5 days ago

Planning is woke. That’s why they gutted the pandemic preparedness playbook in the first term. Anyone recall if there were any repercussions from that?

4moremazdas
Member
4moremazdas
5 days ago

Don’t worry, though, they still blamed the Biden admin since Biden foolishly drew from strategic reserves to deal with the imaginary “crisis” of *checks notes* rising inflation. Something you never heard Republican politicians and talking heads express any concern about, ever.

Dolsh
Member
Dolsh
5 days ago

Kinda had to stop everyone from talking about Epstein so much somehow.

Cayde-6
Cayde-6
5 days ago
Reply to  Beto O'Kitty

Thank God we took over Venezuela first

(/s)

JaredTheGeek
Member
JaredTheGeek
5 days ago

Even worse is that most of the oil we produce is light sweet but most of our refineries are setup for heavy. We have to sell our oil because we can’t even refine it. If we refined all of our own oil for fuel use we are still short 7 million barrels a day at current use.

Live2ski
Member
Live2ski
5 days ago

This will help the used EV market more than new cars. There are tons of lightly used EVs for $20k-$25k and many cheaper.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
5 days ago

How expensive do you think gas will be on July 4th, 2026?

Sub $3/gal.

This is not a structural shortage or damaged infrastructure; one way or another the strait will be opened (there’s too much incentive from various parties to allow the status quo for long) and once it does, relatively normal prices should return in short order.

JaredTheGeek
Member
JaredTheGeek
5 days ago
Reply to  V10omous

They are talking about boots on the ground, they have destroyed oil infrastructure in multiple countries already. You can’t rebuild it that quick. Supply is now constrained for 18-24 months. That’s if things settle down. If not then expect more oil production infrastructure to be destroyed.

Last edited 5 days ago by JaredTheGeek
V10omous
Member
V10omous
5 days ago
Reply to  JaredTheGeek

That position is not the consensus.

July 2026 Brent futures are currently trading at about $77-78. The market expects a quick reopening and reasonably normal production and shipping resuming.

Last edited 5 days ago by V10omous
Kevin Rhodes
Member
Kevin Rhodes
5 days ago
Reply to  V10omous

The US has PLENTY of idle production to ramp up as prices increase. The magic of oil – the more it costs, the more of it there is.

Somehow I think this has factored into the plan here. Who’s going to make a killing? Hmmm…

JaredTheGeek
Member
JaredTheGeek
5 days ago
Reply to  V10omous

With TACO in charge you are probably right.

Taargus Taargus
Member
Taargus Taargus
5 days ago
Reply to  V10omous

I too would probably bet on this, well, if someone had a gun to my head. Granted, we were at 3$ before this past week, and we’re at $3.40 now. I would expect that $3.40 number to hold for the summer, but part of that is just usual summer factors.

Now, I would never bet on this, because hardly anything happening seems to be anything other than chaotic.

V10omous
Member
V10omous
5 days ago

Yeah it’s certainly possible new info will come out or circumstances will change, but as of the info that I know this morning, I expect this to be a steep, but relatively short-lived, spike in prices.

Been wrong before though!

Andrew Daisuke
Andrew Daisuke
5 days ago

Seems like a great time to trade in a ICE vehicle for a used EV if you can make the charging work.

I bought a 1st Gen Leaf in 2019, and every day it just makes more sense.

Gas is up 60 cents a gallon in the past week to 5 bucks here in Seattle.

Mrbrown89
Member
Mrbrown89
5 days ago

Time to start driving more my Insight Gen 1 instead of my Miata supercharged

M. Park Hunter
Member
M. Park Hunter
5 days ago
Reply to  Mrbrown89

Two great cars, fun in different ways. Miss my two OG Insights…

JCat
Member
JCat
5 days ago

Ballston Spa mentioned! Also currently has the cheapest gas in probably 100 miles lol

I’ve really been considering electric or a newer hybrid (the recent piece on the Sonata getting _50mpg_ is astounding).

SaabaruDude
Member
SaabaruDude
5 days ago

$1/gal price hike in gasoline seems unlikely to push many buyers off the EV fence. Assuming constant electrical costs (not a sure thing, as you point out) more expensive gasoline improves the ROI for EV vs ICE, but does nothing to reduce the friction around charging availability/reliability, range anxiety, etc. Ultimately, and perhaps often subconsciously, buyers are still applying a $ value to familiarity and convenience (real or perceived) of gasoline. My gut says that value is usually more than $1/gallon.

If gas rises $1.50-2 or more and stays there for an extended period (6+ months?) we might start to see more movement.

Hybrids are a whole other market, but it’s already The Decade Of The Hybrid, so they probably didn’t need a Persian Gulf boost.

Last edited 5 days ago by SaabaruDude
Pupmeow
Member
Pupmeow
5 days ago
Reply to  SaabaruDude

I think you are spot on. The analysis is not “cost of electricity v. cost of gas.” That might be the analysis when choosing between ICE and hybrid. Howveer, for EVs, for almost all buyers, there are a number of factors (some rational, some emotional).

I was at a charging industry conference last year. At lunch, I listened to a bunch of industry experts discuss ways to educate the American public on charging issues, like how the frequency and level of charging affects battery state of health. I told them the very fact that this calculation needs to occur will put off buyers. They tried to brush me off, which resulted in me treating them to a (slightly angry rant) about being a working mom whose brain is completely overloaded with information and decisions. I don’t want another THING to keep track of. No one does.

Taargus Taargus
Member
Taargus Taargus
5 days ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

So much this. I’m pro-EV future and would love to consider one someday, but boy does that industry seem to have trouble courting anything other than weird nerds. Every facet of life has become exceedingly complex and overscheduled at this point. Nobody wants to be responsible for keeping track of a dozen different battery preservation tricks. They just want to put the fuel into the car and go.

VictoriousSandwich
VictoriousSandwich
5 days ago

100% this, we can argue if it’s BS self trickery or not, but for me part of the attraction of wanting a car since before I could drive was that feeling of freedom to get in and go.

SNL-LOL Jr
Member
SNL-LOL Jr
5 days ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

On the flipside, for those who can charge at home EV ownership greatly simplifies the re-fueling routine. Just plug it in when you are home and forget it.

In due time when the driving pattern becomes clear, one can probably reduce the need to plug in to maybe 1-2 times a week, all in their own driveway.

Pupmeow
Member
Pupmeow
5 days ago
Reply to  SNL-LOL Jr

I agree. And I’m pro-EV. I’ve been really disappointed at the slow speed of the infrastructure roll out, the OEM offerings, and the crapass information campaigns.

SaabaruDude
Member
SaabaruDude
3 days ago
Reply to  SNL-LOL Jr

When I buy a new ICE car I don’t have to install a gas pump in my garage too. Great once its in, but it’s more transactional friction.

VS 57
VS 57
5 days ago
Reply to  SaabaruDude

It’s really hard to get past the need to find a slot in your day to charge the car. No matter how easy this seems for some, so many will see this as an insurmountable problem. Even in The Peoples Republic of Ann Arbor the charging problem is real. Our first roadblock is the HOA. The second is The Empire (UofM) with no charging structure for mere mortals.

JaredTheGeek
Member
JaredTheGeek
5 days ago
Reply to  VS 57

You don’t need to charge everyday unless you can plug in at home then go for it. If your commute means you need to charge daily it may not be worth if for you if you have to rely on DC Fast charging alone. Charging for most would be once a week. It’s not as convenient for everyone but I could rely on public DC Fast Chargers alone and use no time to use them because we have them at Target, Costco, Safeway, along with L2 at the movies, and my office.

Drive By Commenter
Member
Drive By Commenter
5 days ago
Reply to  VS 57

Home charging could work for many people. Then charging is literally how long it takes to plug and unplug the car. More L2 charging at houses and multifamily structures is needed but nobody wants to foot the bill for it.

Sadly there’s still another round of education needed for mass EV adoption. Time of use rates can hit hard if not aware of them.

My 0.02 Cents
My 0.02 Cents
5 days ago

This is where Ford has or had it right, offering rebates covering the cost of a standard L2 install, instead of giving free fast charging like Hyundai / Kia did.

SaabaruDude
Member
SaabaruDude
3 days ago
Reply to  My 0.02 Cents

covering the cost is one thing, but the buyer still has to wrangle the whole installation process, including permitting where required. Buying a new ICE or mild hybrid vehicle requires no such nonsense.

My 0.02 Cents
My 0.02 Cents
1 day ago
Reply to  SaabaruDude

Are you speaking from experience?
I’d have thought that the contractor doing the job would call the city and get the permit as needed.

To be fair it isn’t that difficult of a DIY job. I did mine, although it was the other side of the wall from the panel so it was simple.
If people go down the DIY route (or get a contractor) just make sure to hard wire the EVSE or get an outlet rated for continuous use…My cheap outlet melted after two years…

SaabaruDude
Member
SaabaruDude
1 day ago
Reply to  My 0.02 Cents

I looked very strongly at having one installed when I got my basement finished two years ago. Panel is on the opposite end of things from the garage, and I live in a townhouse-style condo with an HOA that comes with its own requirements beyond local electrical code. Permitting and installation would’ve more than doubled the cost of the charger itself.

VS 57
VS 57
5 days ago

As referenced, the condo association says no power cords across the sidewalk, therefore no home charging.

Drive By Commenter
Member
Drive By Commenter
5 days ago
Reply to  VS 57

I wonder how much installing a curbside charger would be. For a dedicated parking spot that might be an option, although likely expensive. There used to be assistance for that kind of stuff but we can’t have nice things anymore.

Last edited 5 days ago by Drive By Commenter
VictoriousSandwich
VictoriousSandwich
5 days ago
Reply to  SaabaruDude

absolutely, I live in a very EV friendly area and if a person doesn’t have home charging I think it still feels like a lifestyle commitment (even if it’s not). And even then at least here in the West I genuinely am having a hard time seeing an EV personally until I can take a long day trip without stopping to charge. For me it feels like my barrier to entry is getting one with about 350 miles of real range, giving me the headroom to not worry about jumping in the car to go for a hike, ski, battery loss due to cold etc. and if we do a weekend trip 350 miles gets me far enough with one charging stop to be more driving than I want to do in a day anyways.

Spikedlemon
Spikedlemon
5 days ago

The trend going into midterm elections will likely weigh heavily on USMCA. There might easily be a “scorched earth” (scorned earth?) approach as any of the other approaches.

But if the last year has taught us anything is that international agreements are meaningless. So what’s USMCA, or any agreement with this administration (and any future one), to mean for anyone?

Hard to make long term plans.

Maschinenbau
Member
Maschinenbau
5 days ago

Oil prices? Sounds like an excuse to ride the motorcycle more.

Jdoubledub
Member
Jdoubledub
5 days ago
Reply to  Maschinenbau

My KTM somehow gets worse fuel economy than my Fiesta ST and the KTM requires premium!

Spikedlemon
Spikedlemon
5 days ago
Reply to  Jdoubledub

All my motorcycles get worse fuel consumption than my cars.

Time to get the bicycle out. Burn off the beer consumption.

Cloud Shouter
Cloud Shouter
5 days ago

How expensive do you think gas will be on July 4th, 2026?

$7.00 a gallon.

Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  Cloud Shouter

I’ll go with $17.76/gallon just because.

Cloud Shouter
Cloud Shouter
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

I wouldn’t bet against it.

Jb996
Member
Jb996
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

A future quote, “A lot of people are happy with the price of gas. No one ever did this before. I brought America the most amazing, beautiful, wonderful price anyone has ever seen. Very patriotic. Very beautiful.”

or something like that.

Last edited 5 days ago by Jb996
Hoser68
Hoser68
5 days ago
Reply to  Jb996

I don’t think Trump knows how to use a period, but he sure knows how to use a comma.

“The price of gas, which is being set by foreign governments to punish the Great United States, which they are just jealous of, I was just talking to the new president of Venezuela, which I have to admit is a good looking woman, but not as good looking as Melania of course, which was a fashion model, you know, and always looked good in red, like my hats which are now only $19.95 at Trump2042.com, and you can get all sorts of other cool stuff, which I don’t allow Chuck Shumer to buy, because he’s a moron, speaking of morons have you seen what Hillary said yesterday, she was lying almost as much as Chucky, who I call Chucky because he reminds me of a horror movie that was on when I made an ice-rink, everyone said it was impossible, but I made it in 3 weeks using all illegal immigrants that had never seen ice before and I told them that it was water that had froze and they didn’t believe it was possible, anyway, they were all rapists so I had to fire them of course, but they sure loved the Trump water they got because they thought it was the only water that could freeze….”

I’d call it “stream of Consciousness” speaking but there is an implication there I’m not sure of.

Last edited 5 days ago by Hoser68
Nlpnt
Member
Nlpnt
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

Stream of dementia…

Bags
Member
Bags
5 days ago
Reply to  Nlpnt

There’s been a lot of videos circulating from 2012 or 2016 of him arguing that a vote for Obama or a vote for Hillary is a vote for a war in Iran or some shit like that.
It is absolutely not surprising what he says, but HOW he says it is. He never sounded like a smart man (for obvious reasons) but he sounded like he knew how a sentence would end when he started it.

Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
Member
Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
5 days ago
Reply to  Hoser68

REEL PATREEUTS PAY $17.76 FOR GAS!

I can hear it now…

Data
Data
5 days ago

This is all an insidious plot to drive dino juice truck owners into the waiting arms of Elon Musk and the CyberTruck.

Drew
Member
Drew
5 days ago

I’ll say that Carmax seems like they are preparing for market effects. I let them keep me updated on what they’d offer for my vehicle. My RAV4 Prime just had about a 5% increase in value since the last time they checked in a couple months ago. Despite mileage increasing over that time.

Username Loading....
Member
Username Loading....
5 days ago

Energy prices are spiking, could you imagine how stupid you’d feel if you were an automaker that recently scaled back or canceled EV plans, it would suck even more if you, for some reason had no small fuel efficient cars. I bet any automaker in that position would feel pretty dumb, I mean just downright foolish.

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago

I can’t possibly imagine any automaker being that stupid.

RataTejas
RataTejas
5 days ago

I’m sure they’d
Feel
Overly
Regretful and
Dumb.

Urban Runabout
Member
Urban Runabout
5 days ago

Even the Pope can’t get a car from Ford in anything other than “Lease Special Black”

Seems like folks who bought EVs are pretty well set now, huh?
Whooda thunk?

Data
Data
5 days ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

Yes, shouldn’t the Pope’s Explorer be, I don’t know, white?

Urban Runabout
Member
Urban Runabout
5 days ago
Reply to  Data

Not like it’s a longstanding tradition or anything…

4jim
4jim
5 days ago

I wonder if $6/gal is possible in my area ($3.22 last night) I have noticed that the MAGAs in my overlanding group stopped the constant complaints about gas prices like they did 1.5 years ago.

Hangover Grenade
Hangover Grenade
5 days ago

I was already in the process of buying a used Tesla Model 3 LR when the war started. Good timing for me!

Rippstik
Rippstik
5 days ago

Wild to me how many people panic buy/sell cars when gas goes up and down.

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago
Reply to  Rippstik

It’s actually extremely logical to make a huge purchase based on the immediate price of a notoriously fluctuating commodity during a period of global unrest centering mostly around the commodity in question.

KYFire
Member
KYFire
5 days ago

And to do it over and over again without ever learning a lesson.

Nlpnt
Member
Nlpnt
5 days ago

Funny how people never seem to apply that logic to people who go big when gas is cheap.

Assuming you’re being sarcastic, that is.

RallyMech
RallyMech
4 days ago
Reply to  Nlpnt

Funny how people never seem to apply logic”

FTFY

Rich Mason
Rich Mason
5 days ago

Stop talking like Spock. /s

Beasy Mist
Member
Beasy Mist
5 days ago
Reply to  Rippstik

I remember last time this all happened old Geo Metros were going for stupid money. The public has the memory of a goldfish.

Younork
Younork
5 days ago
Reply to  Beasy Mist

I know of someone who spent quite a bit over sticker for a Honda Fit. And this wasn’t because he was a Fit enthusiast grabbing a last model year stick.

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago
Reply to  Younork

Fits haven’t really ever not been in demand, though. They’re also not as massively efficient as people seem to think they are.

Nlpnt
Member
Nlpnt
5 days ago

Mine got 32-35 over winter with me not really paying attention but I touched 45 over the summer of 2002.

The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
The NSX Was Only in Development for 4 Years
5 days ago
Reply to  Nlpnt

You must have the magic touch – I’ve never really done much better than a 35 average.

Nlpnt
Member
Nlpnt
5 days ago

40 psi in the tires, keep it out of VTEC, and it helps if a good chunk of your driving is on rural 2-lanes at 55-60 mph.

Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
Member
Carbon Fiber Sasquatch
5 days ago
Reply to  Beasy Mist

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. – Agent K

Cloud Shouter
Cloud Shouter
5 days ago
Reply to  Beasy Mist

Pepperidge Farms remembers

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