Why I Would Wait Two Months To Buy A Car, But Not Much Longer

There is no specific car advice that is applicable to every person and every situation. If someone offers you a manual Porsche Cayenne in good condition at a low price, you might want to consider it.

If you’re in the market for an electric car, you’d better be trying to buy that car in the next two weeks. For everyone else, the numbers suggest that you’re better off waiting a bit, though there’s a risk in waiting a lot longer. I don’t write The Morning Dump as a car-buying advice column, but the data is painting a picture for me this morning, and I’m ready to get all Bob Ross on you.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk didn’t wait long after being offered a huge pay package before buying some Tesla stock, but is Tesla that good a bet right now? It might be better than BYD, which has been having a rough go of it lately.

At least BYD and Tesla can build cars, which is more than anyone can say for Jaguar Land Rover right now.

November And December Are Likely To Be The Sweet Spot

Our pals at Edmunds just emailed us a bunch of data about interest rates, the Fed, MSRP, and all the good stuff one needs to make some guesses about the current market.

I set up the graphic above, which shows the average MSRP and compares it to the Average Transaction Price (ATP), to better show the growing gap between the two numbers.

This specific chart only goes back to May of 2021, so you can catch the run-up in prices due to supply shortages and Trimflation. Historically, MSRP is always at least a little higher than the ATP, as there’s usually some level of discounting in the market.

During the Pandemic, we got an MSRP/ATP inversion, as people were regularly paying well above MSRP just to get a car, and discounting was practically nonexistent.

As supply shortages waned, MSRP leveled off but never retreated. There was a hope that average MSRPs might fall a bit, but President Trump’s trade war and lingering inflation have made that seem unlikely. What the market did get was some discounting, and you can see in the chart where the gap between the two numbers begins to widen.

As of August 2025, the average MSRP was at $50,469, which isn’t a record high but does represent the unfortunate new normal. Mid-Pandemic, the average MSRP was still below $45,000. ATP was $48,365 in August, which represents an average discount of about $2,104.

It’s not possible to know what the average MSRP will be in 2026, but early indications are that it’s going to go up. Will discounting follow? I’m less sure. Last November, I wrote that you should buy your car before the impending trade war, noting:

While it’s possible that automakers can take the hit themselves, the lesson of the pandemic was that companies will take any excuse to raise prices (check out my favorite economist Isabella Weber’s new paper analyzing earnings calls that shows how this works). In the auto space, we saw that automakers did this via trimflation. Can consumers even stomach pandemic prices again? Probably not.

Car prices have remained stubbornly high this year and increased tariffs, eventually, will find their way to the consumer. That’s assuming Trump is being literal. It’s possible this is all just bluster and new policies from Canada or Mexico will placate him before he takes office.

Or he could start a trade war.

My advice hasn’t necessarily borne fruit yet, as automakers have held the line (and some, like Ford, have even discounted heavily to gain market share). The other issue facing buyers is that rates haven’t gone down enough to make a significant dent in financing. Rates are almost certainly going to retreat this month with the Fed cuts, but even that might not help soon.

“While we haven’t seen a significant increase in new vehicle prices due to tariffs, the possibility still hangs over shoppers already stretched by affordability challenges,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights.

If you assume, as I do, that MSRP will increase across most vehicles because of tariffs and that those same tariffs will cause discounting to get pulled back, then the logic dictates you buy a car soon. So why not just buy a car now?

“Interest rates for both new and used vehicles remain above historic norms, so a modest Fed rate cut won’t dramatically slash monthly payments for consumers — but it does boost overall buyer sentiment,” said Caldwell.

There’s probably a sweet spot towards the end of the year/Black Friday, when dealers are still looking to get rid of 2025 inventory (some of which is still pre-tariff). This is also the time when, historically, discounts go up to some of their highest levels of the year. Automakers that can afford to discount cars likely will.

But I wouldn’t wait much longer. As Justin Fischer from CarEdge points out:

For shoppers on the fence, here’s the big picture: waiting until 2026 could mean paying more. Some automakers are announcing price hikes for the 2026 model year, and others are being sneaky with higher ‘mandatory destination charges’ and other fees. That makes the final months of 2025 one of the best windows to grab a deal on a 2025 model.

Year-end sales will be especially aggressive. Manufacturers will crank up incentives like 0% APR financing and cash offers in November and December. Each year, this manufacturer push lines up perfectly with dealer pressure to clear out remaining inventory. Take note: this level of new car sales won’t be seen again until late 2026. In the auto industry, it’s common knowledge that the end of the year is always the best time to buy a car.

That feels right to me. The world is a mysterious place, and it’s totally possible that something dramatic happens to make everything cheaper. It’s more likely that cars just keep getting pricier, either in terms of MSRP, ATP, or both.

Elon Musk Buys $1 Billion Of Tesla Stock

The stock market is an interesting machine. Elon Musk is the richest man in the world due, primarily, to his ownership of Tesla stock. By purchasing $1 billion worth of said stock, Musk has caused the price of the stock to go up, therefore making himself richer.

Generally, an executive purchasing shares in their own company is a good sign. It shows they believe in the mission, which, in this case, is probably more about building robots than building cars.

There’s optimism on the car front in Germany, at least, with the head of Tesla’s factory in Berlin telling the DPA news agency that the company is going to increase production earlier than planned due to “very good sales figures.”

I find that to be quite interesting, given that European Tesla sales are dropping rapidly there. It’s possible that sales are turning around and haven’t yet shown up in the public numbers.

It’s also possible that Tesla has stopped taking orders for the base model Cybertruck in the U.S. for good reasons. Tesla hasn’t given Automotive News a comment on what happened, so Automotive News asked the Tesla Chatbot, which is funny:

Asked about the base model, the Tesla Assist chatbot responded: “As of September 12, 2025, the Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) has been removed from the configurator in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.”

The customer service chatbot said it couldn’t give a reason.

I can’t wait to start surveying chatbots.

BYD Loses About $45 Billion In Value

Other than Tesla, the biggest story in cars the last few years has been BYD. It’ll outsell Tesla both in terms of total cars and, possibly, total electric cars this year. It has achieved this scale both through a brutal price war and questionable sales practices.

The good vibes can’t last forever, though, and the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have been in the middle of a huge selloff that’s seen BYD’s value drop about 30% from the high it hit earlier this summer, as Bloomberg reports:

Investors are losing patience with BYD’s strategy of taking the lead on deep discounts, while the government is clamping down on the so-called involution wreaking havoc on the industry. At the same time, rivals including Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. are gaining ground.

“While I believe investors retain a positive long-term view, there is a real concern around BYD’s aggressive ‘market share gain by pricing pressure’ strategy in the anti-involution context,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L Echiquier. “In the short term, this should still weigh on both topline and margins.”

Chinese automakers aren’t as bound by margins and profitability in the same way as automakers literally anywhere else. BYD has been allowed to play games to get where it is… so long as doing so has served the interests of the CCP. It seems like the Chinese government is ready for the car market to evolve a bit, and that’s inevitably going to force BYD to face something closer to reality.

JLR, Woof

The cyberdisaster that shut down Jaguar Land Rover production hasn’t gone away, which means that suppliers to the company might start going bankrupt as the plants sit unused.

Per Autocar:

Former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer told the BBC: “I would not be at all surprised to see bankruptcies.”

Palmer added that many suppliers will soon begin to slim their staff count as a result of the shutdown, saying: “You hold back in the first week or so of a shutdown; you bear those losses. But then you go into the second week, more information becomes available – then you cut hard. So layoffs are either already happening or are being planned.”

To prevent widespread job losses, the government is facing calls for a furlough scheme to be set up, similar to that used during the Covid pandemic. This would involve the government subsidising workers’ pay packets while they are unable to do their jobs, taking the burden off their employers.

Suppliers in the auto industry are usually not high-margin businesses, so even a small delay can seriously disrupt finances.

As you can see in the photo above, JLR has its best people working on it!

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

Devo is out touring with the B-52s, which seems like an incredible concert. Here’s Devo doing an NPR Tiny Desk Concert. They’ve still got it!

The Big Question

Are you thinking about buying a car? What is it?

Photo: Toyota