There is no specific car advice that is applicable to every person and every situation. If someone offers you a manual Porsche Cayenne in good condition at a low price, you might want to consider it.
If you’re in the market for an electric car, you’d better be trying to buy that car in the next two weeks. For everyone else, the numbers suggest that you’re better off waiting a bit, though there’s a risk in waiting a lot longer. I don’t write The Morning Dump as a car-buying advice column, but the data is painting a picture for me this morning, and I’m ready to get all Bob Ross on you.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk didn’t wait long after being offered a huge pay package before buying some Tesla stock, but is Tesla that good a bet right now? It might be better than BYD, which has been having a rough go of it lately.
At least BYD and Tesla can build cars, which is more than anyone can say for Jaguar Land Rover right now.
November And December Are Likely To Be The Sweet Spot
Our pals at Edmunds just emailed us a bunch of data about interest rates, the Fed, MSRP, and all the good stuff one needs to make some guesses about the current market.
I set up the graphic above, which shows the average MSRP and compares it to the Average Transaction Price (ATP), to better show the growing gap between the two numbers.
This specific chart only goes back to May of 2021, so you can catch the run-up in prices due to supply shortages and Trimflation. Historically, MSRP is always at least a little higher than the ATP, as there’s usually some level of discounting in the market.
During the Pandemic, we got an MSRP/ATP inversion, as people were regularly paying well above MSRP just to get a car, and discounting was practically nonexistent.
As supply shortages waned, MSRP leveled off but never retreated. There was a hope that average MSRPs might fall a bit, but President Trump’s trade war and lingering inflation have made that seem unlikely. What the market did get was some discounting, and you can see in the chart where the gap between the two numbers begins to widen.
As of August 2025, the average MSRP was at $50,469, which isn’t a record high but does represent the unfortunate new normal. Mid-Pandemic, the average MSRP was still below $45,000. ATP was $48,365 in August, which represents an average discount of about $2,104.
It’s not possible to know what the average MSRP will be in 2026, but early indications are that it’s going to go up. Will discounting follow? I’m less sure. Last November, I wrote that you should buy your car before the impending trade war, noting:
While it’s possible that automakers can take the hit themselves, the lesson of the pandemic was that companies will take any excuse to raise prices (check out my favorite economist Isabella Weber’s new paper analyzing earnings calls that shows how this works). In the auto space, we saw that automakers did this via trimflation. Can consumers even stomach pandemic prices again? Probably not.
Car prices have remained stubbornly high this year and increased tariffs, eventually, will find their way to the consumer. That’s assuming Trump is being literal. It’s possible this is all just bluster and new policies from Canada or Mexico will placate him before he takes office.
Or he could start a trade war.
My advice hasn’t necessarily borne fruit yet, as automakers have held the line (and some, like Ford, have even discounted heavily to gain market share). The other issue facing buyers is that rates haven’t gone down enough to make a significant dent in financing. Rates are almost certainly going to retreat this month with the Fed cuts, but even that might not help soon.
“While we haven’t seen a significant increase in new vehicle prices due to tariffs, the possibility still hangs over shoppers already stretched by affordability challenges,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights.
If you assume, as I do, that MSRP will increase across most vehicles because of tariffs and that those same tariffs will cause discounting to get pulled back, then the logic dictates you buy a car soon. So why not just buy a car now?
“Interest rates for both new and used vehicles remain above historic norms, so a modest Fed rate cut won’t dramatically slash monthly payments for consumers — but it does boost overall buyer sentiment,” said Caldwell.
There’s probably a sweet spot towards the end of the year/Black Friday, when dealers are still looking to get rid of 2025 inventory (some of which is still pre-tariff). This is also the time when, historically, discounts go up to some of their highest levels of the year. Automakers that can afford to discount cars likely will.
But I wouldn’t wait much longer. As Justin Fischer from CarEdge points out:
For shoppers on the fence, here’s the big picture: waiting until 2026 could mean paying more. Some automakers are announcing price hikes for the 2026 model year, and others are being sneaky with higher ‘mandatory destination charges’ and other fees. That makes the final months of 2025 one of the best windows to grab a deal on a 2025 model.
Year-end sales will be especially aggressive. Manufacturers will crank up incentives like 0% APR financing and cash offers in November and December. Each year, this manufacturer push lines up perfectly with dealer pressure to clear out remaining inventory. Take note: this level of new car sales won’t be seen again until late 2026. In the auto industry, it’s common knowledge that the end of the year is always the best time to buy a car.
That feels right to me. The world is a mysterious place, and it’s totally possible that something dramatic happens to make everything cheaper. It’s more likely that cars just keep getting pricier, either in terms of MSRP, ATP, or both.
Elon Musk Buys $1 Billion Of Tesla Stock
The stock market is an interesting machine. Elon Musk is the richest man in the world due, primarily, to his ownership of Tesla stock. By purchasing $1 billion worth of said stock, Musk has caused the price of the stock to go up, therefore making himself richer.
Generally, an executive purchasing shares in their own company is a good sign. It shows they believe in the mission, which, in this case, is probably more about building robots than building cars.
There’s optimism on the car front in Germany, at least, with the head of Tesla’s factory in Berlin telling the DPA news agency that the company is going to increase production earlier than planned due to “very good sales figures.”
I find that to be quite interesting, given that European Tesla sales are dropping rapidly there. It’s possible that sales are turning around and haven’t yet shown up in the public numbers.
It’s also possible that Tesla has stopped taking orders for the base model Cybertruck in the U.S. for good reasons. Tesla hasn’t given Automotive News a comment on what happened, so Automotive News asked the Tesla Chatbot, which is funny:
Asked about the base model, the Tesla Assist chatbot responded: “As of September 12, 2025, the Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) has been removed from the configurator in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.”
The customer service chatbot said it couldn’t give a reason.
I can’t wait to start surveying chatbots.
BYD Loses About $45 Billion In Value
Other than Tesla, the biggest story in cars the last few years has been BYD. It’ll outsell Tesla both in terms of total cars and, possibly, total electric cars this year. It has achieved this scale both through a brutal price war and questionable sales practices.
The good vibes can’t last forever, though, and the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have been in the middle of a huge selloff that’s seen BYD’s value drop about 30% from the high it hit earlier this summer, as Bloomberg reports:
Investors are losing patience with BYD’s strategy of taking the lead on deep discounts, while the government is clamping down on the so-called involution wreaking havoc on the industry. At the same time, rivals including Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. are gaining ground.
“While I believe investors retain a positive long-term view, there is a real concern around BYD’s aggressive ‘market share gain by pricing pressure’ strategy in the anti-involution context,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L Echiquier. “In the short term, this should still weigh on both topline and margins.”
Chinese automakers aren’t as bound by margins and profitability in the same way as automakers literally anywhere else. BYD has been allowed to play games to get where it is… so long as doing so has served the interests of the CCP. It seems like the Chinese government is ready for the car market to evolve a bit, and that’s inevitably going to force BYD to face something closer to reality.
JLR, Woof
The cyberdisaster that shut down Jaguar Land Rover production hasn’t gone away, which means that suppliers to the company might start going bankrupt as the plants sit unused.
Per Autocar:
Former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer told the BBC: “I would not be at all surprised to see bankruptcies.”
Palmer added that many suppliers will soon begin to slim their staff count as a result of the shutdown, saying: “You hold back in the first week or so of a shutdown; you bear those losses. But then you go into the second week, more information becomes available – then you cut hard. So layoffs are either already happening or are being planned.”
To prevent widespread job losses, the government is facing calls for a furlough scheme to be set up, similar to that used during the Covid pandemic. This would involve the government subsidising workers’ pay packets while they are unable to do their jobs, taking the burden off their employers.
Suppliers in the auto industry are usually not high-margin businesses, so even a small delay can seriously disrupt finances.
As you can see in the photo above, JLR has its best people working on it!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Devo is out touring with the B-52s, which seems like an incredible concert. Here’s Devo doing an NPR Tiny Desk Concert. They’ve still got it!
The Big Question
Are you thinking about buying a car? What is it?
Photo: Toyota
I’m actually looking at acquiring two new cars via the best purchasing system: The barter system.
I may be swapping the w126 for a Porsche 944, and currently trying to entice a guy selling a Roadmaster Wagon to trade for my spare Snap-On box with a load of tools.
If it all works out, I’ll add two new cars to the stable, and increase the fleet by one, for zero dollars!
If you haven’t watched the Devo documentary on Netflix, do so.
And I’ll enjoy my GR-C and Crosstrek for at least a few more years.
Oh great, so those reports are insinuating the car business is going to get even worse?
It’s already fooked.
Big ol’ nope. Not car shopping anytime soon. Not with purchasing a new car last year. It’s not just the car. It’s the accessories too that add a lot. Like nice floor mats or a new hitch receiver.
The best Devo song is Dare to be Stupid by “Weird Al.”
Re: The Big Question: The closest I got to getting a new vehicle recently was trying to lease a Mach E when Ford was giving away chargers last year. Didn’t pull the trigger because I had no clue where the country would be in an economic sense next year. Still probably too early to tell, but it feels like I made a good call.
The Wife has been talking about getting a new car next year, but I have a feeling we’ll ride out her car a bit longer. It only gets around 6-7k miles a year, so it’s not like we’ll need to be in a hurry to get it replaced.
It was so good Mark Mothersbaugh was annoyed he didn’t write it himself.
So on Saturday I saw Weird Al play that in concert. I was wearing my Devo shirt.
Just saw him last night myself! I’m not as cool as you with a Devo shirt, but I did have a Spatula City shirt.
Oh, yeah, after reading this I’m headed down to my local dealership and dropping over 75 grand on a brand-spankin’ new F-150, Silverado, or Ram. Please make the monthlies over $1,000, plus I know State Farm will want at least $200-$300 per month to cover all those sensors in the grille. And on top of that, I get to fork over about a hundy a week in fuel just to go to work.
Buying a car is the last thing I’d want to do right now. I’m really enjoying not having a car payment and my 10 year old car is reliable and pleasant enough that I have no desire to change.
My wife is a different story. Her 2017 Mazda CX-9 is starting to show its age. Clear coat is roached and the suspension is starting to creak a bit, and that is giving her the new car bug (well, new to her, not necessarily brand new). Personally I don’t care about the paint and fixing the suspension would probably cost the same as one new car payment. I’m really uncertain about the future and the thought of adding more debt right now is scary. But she is on deck for a promotion and raise at work so we agreed to only continue discussing this if she gets the promotion.
I think I am out of the car buying business for the next 2-4 years, at least. My new daily is going to be my ’94 Pickup and public transportation.
f-150 lightning. Big boi battery and proper towing spec can tow as much as my f350 cc w/ the short bed, while being FAR cheaper to operate and FAR safer for my family, while really only sacrificing a small volume of bed space and mild payload drop, which we can balance by using a small trailer when needed . We don’t tow the tractor great distances, but have a 60-mile/day commute (tough at 11.5 avg mpg, even on the 87 swill) but we can charge at home, which also happens to be in a location where our hilltop storms thoughtlessly revoke electrical service to our local grid, upon which time the giant rolling battery could potentially save the day! Also, the work truck rides very stiff unless I add some concrete chimney blocks to the bed for “leafspring preload comfort mode”. THis does not affect fuel mileage to anything less than 0.1 mpg, the resolution of my very nerdy fuel consumption study. The lightning is 4 wheel independent suspension and ive heard it rides real nice as a result. Both vehicles are are real nice inside and can each carry bicycles for 4. Very important detail.
I have an appt scheduled w/ ford this afternoon, trying to balance the purchase price with price of operation. Should be interesting!
Hope you like it. For EV purchases specifically:
Thanks for the heads up!
I just leased an ID.4 to take advantage of the crazy Colorado lease deals and to get rid of a troubled 14yo Tiguan. Hopefully things improve in 2 years when the lease is up.
Kicking the can down the road seems like a good strategy.
I’m always thinking about buying a car.
Lately, I have been thinking of buying a convertible as the weather starts to turn. I’ve never owned one and I think that it might be a fun ride for next spring/summer (and I suspect I’ll get a better deal at the end of season than at the beginning). I don’t know, though. My partner is against me having more than one vehicle and we don’t really have the room.
I’ve also been watching the used EV space. There’s value there, and I think I could find something great for a pretty reasonable price, but it has to be something I really want, since it would replace my RAV4 Prime (which is still worth pretty much what I paid for it, since used pricing on it seems to ignore the lease credit loophole).
And I’m waiting on the Telo and Slate pickups to become available. If the Telo hits the expected pricing, it mostly looks pretty good (and I am somewhere around preorder 20, so I should be able to get whatever the initial price is). If it’s expensive, the Slate may be worth looking at. I don’t need either one, so I’ll just keep on keeping on if neither final product ends up looking like what I want at a price I can live with. I’m disappointed that I’ll miss out on the tax credit on them, but that’s just the way things go.
If you get one with heated seats, winter is kind of the best time for it. Throw on a hat and some gloves and you’re good to go. Whereas in Spring? Pollen everywhere. Summer? Beating sun is no fun at a stop light. Fall? Leaves everywhere.
Oh, man, that is a good point. Thank you for the tip!
Stop lights are what the air conditioner is for.
Am I thinking about buying a car?
My cars are comfortable, practical, wrenchable, reliable, securable (I can lock things inside them and park them in my garage), parts are available, they’re cheap to insure, cheap to register, fun enough to drive, pass smog, and I haven’t had a car payment in almost 20 years.
My only real complaints are they don’t get hybridlike MPG and they don’t clean themselves. And they’re not as safe as modern cars.
So no, not really. But if I had to maybe a Gen2 Volt. That’s still my favorite used PHEV. Maybe a 10 yo Altima, those are safe enough. Maybe an E46 or E39 BMW if I’m feeling very lucky. Or a Mazda6 in Soul red and a MT if I’m feeling like I need a treat.
Whatever I buy it’ll be used, cheap and full of value.
User name (still) checks out.
Spoiler alert! It always will.
Keep on keeping on, Brother!
One of these days, you’ll admit to one singular splurge and someone’s gonna be all over it 😉
One day, many many years ago as a child I spent a whole nickel on a single bar of chocolate! Does that count?
Yeah, every time I drive my 2004 Sequoia I’m reminded it’s a gas hog compared to newer vehicles, but then I remind myself that I only drive it a couple times a month normally and that one car payment equals about 4 tanks of fuel.
A friend of mine grew up in Akron and saw Devo play a number of times before they had any type of hit. He is about the same age as the guys in the band and has hung was able to hang out with them at shows from time to time and said they were very nice and very cool folks. It is the same friend who had a lost weekend partying with Jello Biafra, so he has had an interesting life.
BTW, hearing the B-52s’ Rock Lobster was a primary driver for John Lennon releasing his last album.
Can’t buy a slate yet unfortunately!
You can buy Slate merch, though.
Can I get an 84 month term on that?
“For well qualified buyers.”
You keep your “happy little accidents” away from me!
This feels like an unnecessary dig at the models Jaguar hired for their ad campaign.
Agreed, but at the same time, from a marketing standpoint I don’t know what the image has to do with a car. Ultramodern cool? Or something? iirc, Jag is trying to rebrand as a lifestyle brand much like Ferrari has… is this some kind of indication of it? I dunno. All I know is that the color palette feels like Starburst wrappers.
But the marketing campaign and it’s hired models also have nothing to do with a cybersecurity breach. They’re just out here catching strays. It seems like the kind of off-colour joke some recently deceased folk might say.
JLR opted to spend their money on a totally nutty, yet somehow derivative marketing scheme instead of you know, designing and building cars, or maybe on cybersecurity. Fair? Maybe not.
But I do like the idea of that group of models assembling like a group of superheros from a very, very dystopian future, to battle the cybercriminals. I’d watch that show.
And your advice continues to be bad.
The best advice is to not buy a car if you don’t need one. My car still runs well, and it’s long since paid off.
Not everyone is so lucky. Some of us have cars that we’re limping along, trying to balance timing, budgeting, and financing to replace a family hauler.
Your approach is akin to the tone-deafness of telling depressed people to not be sad. Congrats on not having the problems that others do.
No, those who need to buy a car should shop around.
Fear-mongering that things will step-change in two months to push people to consider decisions that they should otherwise not consider is ill advised.
I took his advice to mean if you’re looking to buy a car soon, wait till the end of the year. Not go out and buy one even if you don’t need to.
Its not tone deaf to advise people who don’t actually NEED a car to not buy one.
At no point have I ever seen Matt encourage people to buy a car when they don’t need one. I’m actually almost positive he’s broken it down very specifically as to who he’s talking about on multiple occasions.
This is a car site, buying cars is what we do, despite the grumblings of folks who seem to want to do everything possible to discourage people from actually enjoying their hobby.
Don’t spend money on something new and awesome! That might cause you to have fun, and we can’t have that around here!
Or the simplicity of some people needing reliable transportation and having neither the time nor means to repair things themselves.
Absolutely.
The beater lifestyle can work for some, and more power to those for whom it does, but the “buy used, pay cash, never upgrade as long as the car can limp along” crowd is pretty annoying in its evangelism.
There is more to life than squeezing the last dime out of a spreadsheet entry.
Exactly. It’s not financially prudent for me to funnel money into 80s shitbox project cars, but as my spouse has said “you don’t do well when you don’t have a project”.
Some people smoke, others piss money away in their detached garage.
Wait, how did you know my garage is detached?
Cause I was the one that detached it! Call your insurance!
they aren’t advising anyone to buy a car if they don’t need one.
To clarify, don’t buy a new car if you don’t need a new car. That’s pretty much a given around here. If you’re thinking you’ll need to buy a car in the next 0-12 months… now is better.
What if I plan to just build a new car from scratch in my driveway? What’s the timeline on those purchases? (Asking for a friend out in Cali).
Start six months ago.
Hmm, I’ll need to pull off some Interstellar moves to make it happen.
I’d like to get a bit more towing capability and better efficiency than my Mazda5, and it’s about to crest 150k miles and isn’t getting any younger. I’ve kept an eye out for hybrid Highlanders and have been getting finances in order looking to a late spring/early summer time frame next year.
But that all rides on whether I feel comfortable buying. If the more likely case comes along and cars are more expensive and the economy is shakier, I’ll skip the car payment and keep soldiering on with the 5. I have no reason to think it won’t continue overperforming for such a humble little thing.
The Mazda5 punches well above its class. Not a lot out there would fill that gap without being either 1. bigger/expensive and 2. far less fun.
Absolutely agree – I’ve said many times that if I could get the same car with a couple updates and Toyota’s hybrid system there would be no question. There was a rumor about a Maverick van to replace the Transit Connect at one point, which would basically be that, but I think the tariffs have killed that possibility.
I’d like to have sliding doors and the more utilitarian profile of a minivan, but the existing options are nearly 2 feet longer than the 5.
The nice thing about having an irreplaceable car is that I’m in no hurry to buy anything. It’s much cheaper this way.
Here’s the thing about interest rates: When lenders expect a Fed rate cut, they know what’s coming, so they’ve already dropped their retail rates in expectation – cuts are pretty much baked in before the actual rate cut. So if a rate cut doesn’t come thru after all – lenders just deal with it out of their @2%+ spread (more if it’s unsecured credit), call it a business expense, tack on some fees, and charge the next guy more.
So waiting to buy your car or house later this month or next month isn’t buying you a better consumer rate – they’re already here. You just need to actually look at the rate and the spread you’re being charged.
I do not want to buy a new car, but the thought is always in the back of my mind. My 2013 Volt is soldiering along quite well. Other than a minor quirk of the GPS, and that she’ll need some new CV boots soon, I’ve lost very little range in the last 11ish years of ownership.
What I’m worried about is having to replace the car if there’s an accident. There are a lot of expensive components that could cause an insurance write-off if I’m hit. The driver’s side charging system is the most infamous.
So yeah. Not sure what I’d get, considering we had to replace my wife’s car last year and we want to plan for worst-case economic scenarios.
My two car garage is done. All I plan on doing is enjoying them for 40+ more years.
Don’t leave us hangin’ – whatcha got?
Porsche 718 Spyder RS
W204 Mercedes-Benz C63 AMG Edition 507 (grabbed it early this year)
I’m your broke-ass neighbor with an ’09 Outback and ’14 Forester in the garage.
Are they doing their job for you cost effectively?
Great. That’s all you need them to do. Keep doin’ that.
Very much so. Change the fluids now and then. Tires every few years. Good in bad weather. Insurance laughable cheap.
You’re doing it right. Get 20-30 years out of each.
Nope not really thinking about buying any cars any time soon. Newer ones that is got my Polestar 2 back in June and still have my FJ, D250 and Firebird. Unless something drastic happens to the fiances Tourx or my Polestar I’ll keep what I have for now. As I have stated here before I am waiting on the R3X and the Scout EV’s and possibly the golf EV if it even comes to the US.
Yes, I am looking at buying a car soon. Looking for a good deal on a 2010-2012 Prius.
In the case of Elon buying stock, I see it more as market manipulation because people look at him and not the actual company. The stock price is completely detached from reality.
Alternatively they see the price move and don’t bother to look at why, just Number Go Up. I bet a lot of algorithmic traders don’t bother to watch the news, and that’s what Musk is banking on, a billion-dollar bet that people just aren’t really paying attention (despite the fact that he’s one of the most visible people on the planet (on purpose.))
This. And as a kicker, he’s probably using his existing stock as collateral to borrow the stock, so he’s not even buying anything per se. When it goes up, he just collects on the gains.
*I’m admittingly not an expert on how super rich people do these things but that seems like a likely play, falls into the “buy, borrow, die” strategy. Please correct me!*
If I can get my wife on board, there is either an 86 Daytona or 06 S60R that I have my eye on for my son’s first car. BIG IF, by the way…..