There is no specific car advice that is applicable to every person and every situation. If someone offers you a manual Porsche Cayenne in good condition at a low price, you might want to consider it.
If you’re in the market for an electric car, you’d better be trying to buy that car in the next two weeks. For everyone else, the numbers suggest that you’re better off waiting a bit, though there’s a risk in waiting a lot longer. I don’t write The Morning Dump as a car-buying advice column, but the data is painting a picture for me this morning, and I’m ready to get all Bob Ross on you.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk didn’t wait long after being offered a huge pay package before buying some Tesla stock, but is Tesla that good a bet right now? It might be better than BYD, which has been having a rough go of it lately.
At least BYD and Tesla can build cars, which is more than anyone can say for Jaguar Land Rover right now.
November And December Are Likely To Be The Sweet Spot
Our pals at Edmunds just emailed us a bunch of data about interest rates, the Fed, MSRP, and all the good stuff one needs to make some guesses about the current market.
I set up the graphic above, which shows the average MSRP and compares it to the Average Transaction Price (ATP), to better show the growing gap between the two numbers.
This specific chart only goes back to May of 2021, so you can catch the run-up in prices due to supply shortages and Trimflation. Historically, MSRP is always at least a little higher than the ATP, as there’s usually some level of discounting in the market.
During the Pandemic, we got an MSRP/ATP inversion, as people were regularly paying well above MSRP just to get a car, and discounting was practically nonexistent.
As supply shortages waned, MSRP leveled off but never retreated. There was a hope that average MSRPs might fall a bit, but President Trump’s trade war and lingering inflation have made that seem unlikely. What the market did get was some discounting, and you can see in the chart where the gap between the two numbers begins to widen.
As of August 2025, the average MSRP was at $50,469, which isn’t a record high but does represent the unfortunate new normal. Mid-Pandemic, the average MSRP was still below $45,000. ATP was $48,365 in August, which represents an average discount of about $2,104.
It’s not possible to know what the average MSRP will be in 2026, but early indications are that it’s going to go up. Will discounting follow? I’m less sure. Last November, I wrote that you should buy your car before the impending trade war, noting:
While it’s possible that automakers can take the hit themselves, the lesson of the pandemic was that companies will take any excuse to raise prices (check out my favorite economist Isabella Weber’s new paper analyzing earnings calls that shows how this works). In the auto space, we saw that automakers did this via trimflation. Can consumers even stomach pandemic prices again? Probably not.
Car prices have remained stubbornly high this year and increased tariffs, eventually, will find their way to the consumer. That’s assuming Trump is being literal. It’s possible this is all just bluster and new policies from Canada or Mexico will placate him before he takes office.
Or he could start a trade war.
My advice hasn’t necessarily borne fruit yet, as automakers have held the line (and some, like Ford, have even discounted heavily to gain market share). The other issue facing buyers is that rates haven’t gone down enough to make a significant dent in financing. Rates are almost certainly going to retreat this month with the Fed cuts, but even that might not help soon.
“While we haven’t seen a significant increase in new vehicle prices due to tariffs, the possibility still hangs over shoppers already stretched by affordability challenges,” said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights.
If you assume, as I do, that MSRP will increase across most vehicles because of tariffs and that those same tariffs will cause discounting to get pulled back, then the logic dictates you buy a car soon. So why not just buy a car now?
“Interest rates for both new and used vehicles remain above historic norms, so a modest Fed rate cut won’t dramatically slash monthly payments for consumers — but it does boost overall buyer sentiment,” said Caldwell.
There’s probably a sweet spot towards the end of the year/Black Friday, when dealers are still looking to get rid of 2025 inventory (some of which is still pre-tariff). This is also the time when, historically, discounts go up to some of their highest levels of the year. Automakers that can afford to discount cars likely will.
But I wouldn’t wait much longer. As Justin Fischer from CarEdge points out:
For shoppers on the fence, here’s the big picture: waiting until 2026 could mean paying more. Some automakers are announcing price hikes for the 2026 model year, and others are being sneaky with higher ‘mandatory destination charges’ and other fees. That makes the final months of 2025 one of the best windows to grab a deal on a 2025 model.
Year-end sales will be especially aggressive. Manufacturers will crank up incentives like 0% APR financing and cash offers in November and December. Each year, this manufacturer push lines up perfectly with dealer pressure to clear out remaining inventory. Take note: this level of new car sales won’t be seen again until late 2026. In the auto industry, it’s common knowledge that the end of the year is always the best time to buy a car.
That feels right to me. The world is a mysterious place, and it’s totally possible that something dramatic happens to make everything cheaper. It’s more likely that cars just keep getting pricier, either in terms of MSRP, ATP, or both.
Elon Musk Buys $1 Billion Of Tesla Stock
The stock market is an interesting machine. Elon Musk is the richest man in the world due, primarily, to his ownership of Tesla stock. By purchasing $1 billion worth of said stock, Musk has caused the price of the stock to go up, therefore making himself richer.
Generally, an executive purchasing shares in their own company is a good sign. It shows they believe in the mission, which, in this case, is probably more about building robots than building cars.
There’s optimism on the car front in Germany, at least, with the head of Tesla’s factory in Berlin telling the DPA news agency that the company is going to increase production earlier than planned due to “very good sales figures.”
I find that to be quite interesting, given that European Tesla sales are dropping rapidly there. It’s possible that sales are turning around and haven’t yet shown up in the public numbers.
It’s also possible that Tesla has stopped taking orders for the base model Cybertruck in the U.S. for good reasons. Tesla hasn’t given Automotive News a comment on what happened, so Automotive News asked the Tesla Chatbot, which is funny:
Asked about the base model, the Tesla Assist chatbot responded: “As of September 12, 2025, the Cybertruck Long Range Rear Wheel Drive (RWD) has been removed from the configurator in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico.”
The customer service chatbot said it couldn’t give a reason.
I can’t wait to start surveying chatbots.
BYD Loses About $45 Billion In Value
Other than Tesla, the biggest story in cars the last few years has been BYD. It’ll outsell Tesla both in terms of total cars and, possibly, total electric cars this year. It has achieved this scale both through a brutal price war and questionable sales practices.
The good vibes can’t last forever, though, and the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares have been in the middle of a huge selloff that’s seen BYD’s value drop about 30% from the high it hit earlier this summer, as Bloomberg reports:
Investors are losing patience with BYD’s strategy of taking the lead on deep discounts, while the government is clamping down on the so-called involution wreaking havoc on the industry. At the same time, rivals including Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Co. are gaining ground.
“While I believe investors retain a positive long-term view, there is a real concern around BYD’s aggressive ‘market share gain by pricing pressure’ strategy in the anti-involution context,” said Kevin Net, head of Asian equities at Financiere de L Echiquier. “In the short term, this should still weigh on both topline and margins.”
Chinese automakers aren’t as bound by margins and profitability in the same way as automakers literally anywhere else. BYD has been allowed to play games to get where it is… so long as doing so has served the interests of the CCP. It seems like the Chinese government is ready for the car market to evolve a bit, and that’s inevitably going to force BYD to face something closer to reality.
JLR, Woof
The cyberdisaster that shut down Jaguar Land Rover production hasn’t gone away, which means that suppliers to the company might start going bankrupt as the plants sit unused.
Per Autocar:
Former Aston Martin CEO Andy Palmer told the BBC: “I would not be at all surprised to see bankruptcies.”
Palmer added that many suppliers will soon begin to slim their staff count as a result of the shutdown, saying: “You hold back in the first week or so of a shutdown; you bear those losses. But then you go into the second week, more information becomes available – then you cut hard. So layoffs are either already happening or are being planned.”
To prevent widespread job losses, the government is facing calls for a furlough scheme to be set up, similar to that used during the Covid pandemic. This would involve the government subsidising workers’ pay packets while they are unable to do their jobs, taking the burden off their employers.
Suppliers in the auto industry are usually not high-margin businesses, so even a small delay can seriously disrupt finances.
As you can see in the photo above, JLR has its best people working on it!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Devo is out touring with the B-52s, which seems like an incredible concert. Here’s Devo doing an NPR Tiny Desk Concert. They’ve still got it!
The Big Question
Are you thinking about buying a car? What is it?
Photo: Toyota
I officially stepped into Weird-Car-Guy-dom by buying a 42k mi ‘05 e46 convertible for way more money than those words would seem to warrant. That’s the last car I intend to buy for the next decade (I live in an apartment and don’t have enough parking space for the dream garage).
(Also, if anyone’s interested in a meticulously mechanically maintained 150k mi ‘04 e46 automatic vert in CA for a good price, hmu)
Seriously looking at an EV before the credit expires September 30th. Currently looking at the Kia EV6, but I’m casting a wide net.
My wife offered to buy me a fun car for my birthday. I told her to put away her chequebook. I just don’t need or want more stuff.
The problem with this past summer was that I couldn’t test drive the car I wanted due to them selling way too fast. As a quirky car enthusiast, I want something quirky. Fell in love with the idea of a Lexus is350, but there aren’t a lot with the adaptive suspension available for test drives. Because I need to place an order for the spec that I want (i.e.-RWD in blue in the midwest), there are no discounts.
In a normal economy, I’d just wait until next year to buy. To be safe, I should buy now, but they just announced some updates to the model, and I’m interested. (Better steering feel and less diving in potholes? YES those apply to me!) My spouse wants us to refill our car replacement account for another year anyway. I guess I’ll roll the dice and hope prices stay reasonable.
WHY does this have to be so difficult?!
“Are you thinking about buying a car? What is it?”
Nah, I’m actually thinking of buying a box/utility trailer in the short term.
Next year, my daughter may need a car for work though.
I am always thinking about buying a car.
I am never actually buying a car.
Probably describes (at least) half of us.
I think this may be one of the reasons this site appeals to me so much. The Autopian writers are basically just me, but pulling the trigger where I always back off.
I’m totally ok with this.
$10/mo is cheap if it keeps you from even one of those purchases
It’s really an amazing value when you think about it.
Like a few in here, I’m never not thinking about a new (to me) vehicle. My commuter is getting a bit long in the tooth (2010 Accord Coupe with 270k mi). Problem is trying to identify what I want that is equally fun/quick but still reliable. Have a truck and the wife’s suv for better vehicles so don’t need new or fancy. Been tossing around the idea of a clean Taurus SHO or Charger but still just window shopping.
Y’all missed the sweet spot for car buying, but I didn’t. That sweet spot was between the election and the inauguration. I bought around Christmastime. Currently, comps to what I bought are the same price or higher.
I bought just before the election, which turned out pretty well.
I tried in vain to get a Prologue. Now they’re all gone around me.
Ah well, you know what they say – the Prologue is past.
Are you thinking about buying a car? What is it?
Still looking for a 2004 or earlier manual Jeep Wrangler/CJ-7/CJ-8 that has not been brodozered, angry Jeeped, lifted so I need a ladder to get into/out of, or been turned in to a trashy looking nightmare.
Starting to lose hope.
Also trying to get my wife to sell the Honda Pilot that we both dislike.
I’m actually quietly considering selling one. I enjoy my 2013 Civic Si, but they just keep getting more valuable, and once I get the work sorted on my 03 LX it’s redundant to have two Civics.
If the retail starts going up, it’ll be hard to resist parting ways with it.
I’m not looking to buy a car in the next two years, but my Mom’s friend has suddenly decided that her existing car is OLD and must be replaced soon. The car isn’t much older than my WK, and aside from needing tires and having been driven like a stereotypical ‘old lady’ car (to church and to the store each week, no strenuous highway driving!), I don’t think the car has any major issues.
Already done. Got a CX-90 PHEV for the wife while Mazda has an “end of EV credits” fire sale on them. That replaced our 7-year-old Nissan Leaf that was still extremely functional, but our family had expanded and outgrown.
We’re good on cars for at least another 5+ years until mine comes due.
Am I looking to buy a car?
No.
My daily driver 2016 Mazda6 has been with me since October of 2015. Next month will be a decade. About to crest 100,000 miles (I worked from home for several years) and doing fine. It has been paid off since 2019, so why go back into a car payment obligation when I don’t have to?
I’d like to upgrade to a Mazda CX-9 (can’t afford a CX-90), but I don’t trust the economy enough to take on that burden when the car’s payment is $0.00.
Same, I’m nearing 140,000 miles but this $0 car payment for the last few years has been very nice. And most used cars I look at are almost expensive as new ones. And not only would there be a car payment but also more expensive insurance.
I want something to change in the Minivan segment over the next 2 years.
In my 2 car household i keep it to 0 or 1 car payment at a time. At the moment my car has a couple more years of payments, so im not currently in the market, by my wife’s Pacifica will be 10 years old by then, so i’ll probably want to upgrade.
When that point comes, if i can get a legit deal on a lightly used ID.Buzz (or… if a new buzz was actually priced at something that resembles reality…) that’s probably #1 on the list. My wife is smitten with the way it looks and EV driving would fit well in our lifestyle.
Outside the Buzz tho, only the Pacifica offers anything plug-in. My wife could do almost all her daily driving on battery in almost any modern PHEV.
But in 2 years? Chrysler might not even exist! lol. I just need Lucid to actually commit to the bit and put some dang sliding doors on the Gravity. And also i need several consecutive fat raises at work.
WELL.
I’M WAAAAAAAITING.
also:
I think I’d rather be stuck in a room with the overwhelming, noxious smell of my own farts.
I’m thinking about buying a car in about 2 years when my youngest turns 16. I’m hoping there will be some good deals by then on off-lease EVs. Matt, can you gaze into your crystal ball and give me a buying forecast for around December 2027?
The only times I’m NOT thinking about buying a car:
A. I remember my current car is paid off
B. I remember I have an employer-provided work car
C. I’m thinking about porn
Right now I’m between the Prelude (I signed up for the “stay informed” list 4 times already)
Id love to buy a car, but I have a Toyota minivan and it works and I don’t want to afford a new to me car.
BYD may have taken a hit in stock value since this summer but did they make a profit or take a loss?
I was just given a 2009 Corolla S 5 speed with 250k miles. That’s my “new” car. Needed nothing but a passenger side mirror, wipers, and a couple of heat shields bolted back up.
My son and I keep cracking jokes about it being the Sport model (Dual VVT-i power, yo!) but, hey, it’s cheap reliable transportation.
I broke and replaced the old ’05 MDX with a ’13 Highlander last month. The partner’s ’07 Corolla is in perfect mechanical shape, but needs some rust repair and a repaint. That is a conversation: do we fix it up nice, run it into the ground, or replace with a K4 or Elantra.
It only has a 135k miles so it’s barely broken in. The interior is near pristene, but it’s never been garaged and we live in a salted road climate. I’m inclined to put some money into a proven car that has a bulletproof reputation.
The MDX blew the power steering rack on our last vacation (I wrestled it 600+ miles with no P/S). I was by far my rustiest car and was due for tires and some suspension work. I couldn’t justify the replace vs fix cost. I paid 8k or so for it in 2017 so more than got my value out of of 70k miles.
Holding on to the vehicles we have untill the new Scout starts (hopefully) shipping in 2027. Bronco goes in Friday to get the rear shocks replaced under recall.
Unrelated to the story, the article pic is awesome. I’d love to see a huge not-flailing-arm guy standing unflappably in front of a dealership.
I wanted to go see Devo and the B-52s at the Hollywood Bowl next month, but the cheapest seats were over $300., and the stage is so tiny from that distance you mostly just watch on the screens. Both are bands meaningful in my 1980s youth, and I love them still. I can actually walk to/from the Bowl if necessary (it’s the better part of an hour door to door, maybe 45 minutes if you hurry, which I don’t) but I don’t go that often. Last performer I saw there was Chrissie Hynde, and despite the fact that she’s old enough to be my mother (and I’m almost old myself) she sounded fantastic. 🙂
That metallic green looks nice on the Maverick, but I’d prefer it just a shade or two darker… I’m getting used to the revised grill and headlights, but I’m still not a fan (they’re better on the Lobo). That BYD looks an awful lot like a Cayenne, especially the nose (minus the detailing). Elon deserves to have his ass violently eaten by a Chupacabra. I like to look at pictures, but mostly just skim the financial stuff, since I don’t grok all of it. I still enjoy TMD every day though. Thanks Matt! 🙂
Saw Devo in the Spring at the MGM Music Hall in Boston, GA on the floor, cheap. Great show but I forgot my ear plugs. Definitely getting old because it was too loud to the point of sounding muddy. It probably sounded great up in the fancy seats…
I empathize (about the ear plugs).
Before Chrissie, I saw Edward Sharpe and the Magnetic Zeros at the Bowl (this was a few years back when they still existed) and had pretty good seats, but thought the sound was less than perfect: ‘muddy’ sometimes as you said. This was despite the bowl having spent millions on new equipment. Still, I really enjoyed the show.
I don’t go to any shows or clubs without my musicians earplugs. They are the difference between enjoying a show and being miserable for days after.
Not a slight against Devo, but there are too many sound reinforcement engineers, DJs and bands that think “if you can’t be in tune, do it louder”. It seems to be especially true with a lot of bar bands.