Honda presented its updated financial case this morning, and the news was mixed. The company’s revenue was given a Mike Tyson blow to the face by both the money it seemingly misspent on electric cars and by tariffs. What’s the positive here? The new tariff deal should make things a lot better for the company in the second half of the year.
I don’t want The Morning Dump to be all-tariffs, all the-time. Whether it’s a bug or a feature, I’m not sure, but it feels like none of this is really settled, and that means anyone can Rorschach (the test, not the character) their views on the deal. For instance, the President seems to think that Ford will be selling F-150s in Japan and, well, it’s not clear that anyone else thinks that’ll happen. There’s a risk as a journalist of being like a player on the Washington Generals, forever distracted by nonsense and therefore missing the basketball stuffed under the shirt of a Harlem Globetrotter. I’m going to try to keep my eye on the ball here.
The EV environment is not what was predicted in the past, so it’s not a big surprise that Genesis appears to be cutting one of its more interesting/confusing vehicles from the lineup. And speaking of cuts, I totally forgot that a few automakers have specific deals with California that are outside the scope of the recent emissions cuts.
Let’s play.
Honda Says EV-Related Misadventures Cost It $780 Million
Could Honda have been Tesla? Could it have done what Tesla did? Technically, yes. There is no secret technology so wild or unusual that Honda or any other car company was unable to do it. This is really a four-minute mile issue. People assumed the technology didn’t exist, the market wasn’t there, and the profits were basically impossible.
Then Tesla pulled a Roger Bannister, and everyone realized it was actually doable. The problem for everyone who isn’t Tesla, though, is money. Tesla was pre-revenue for the longest time, relied on huge amounts of government help, and the buzz helped sustain enormous valuations that generated cash for the automaker. Making good electric cars has, and will be, replicable. Doing it at the margins and scale Tesla was doing it is a lot harder.
To stretch this metaphor a bit, Tesla broke the four-minute mile on a perfectly clear track. Everyone else is suddenly trying to break the barrier on a track filled with hurdles, one of which has been the success of Tesla. Honda has tried many Honda-like approaches to this problem, including building locally in China and partnering with General Motors, and basically none of it has worked. It has a deal with Sony to build a car, the Afeela 1, and I-a-feela like it’s going to be a disappointment.
Honda admitted as much in its recent financial release and in a press conference, as chronicled by Hans Greimel at Automotive News:
In announcing the financial results Aug. 6, Managing Executive Officer Eiji Fujimura blamed the added EV costs on Honda’s conservative outlook for EVs. The company has delayed product development and investment in a Canada EV production hub as it readies its new 0 Series of EVs.
“We are not very optimistic, to put it plainly,” Fujimura said.
[…]
Honda’s new EVs for China were too expensive for the market amid ongoing price wars there, and they lacked the smart-car user interface and connectivity demanded by Chinese consumers, Fujimura said.
“We are struggling with EVs there,” he said. “We are underachieving against the initial plan.”
In the United States, Honda might be temporarily doomed by its own success. The GM-based/built Honda Prologue is a bit of a sales hit, even with some teething issues, but it’s also a revenue hit. In that same article, Greimel quotes data from Motor Intelligence that shows the company is spending, on average, more than $12,000 in incentives to move Prologues and a whopping $21,000 per Acura ZDX. This is consistent with what my friends are telling me. A friend asked for a good deal on an EV, and I told them to lease a Prologue, which they did, and another friend picked up a ZDX. Neither spent a lot of money.
A high-spec ZDX Type S theoretically costs $76,755, which is money that no sane person would pay for it. If you add the $7,500 tax credit to $21,000 in incentives, you’d have almost $30,000 off, bringing the leased price closer to $45,000, which is a little more reasonable. By comparison, the also-good Blazer SS is mostly the same car, but is $10,000 cheaper when compared spec-to-spec.
Honda is in the position where it’s losing a lot of money every time it sells one of these cars, and that’s before the $7,500 disappears in a few weeks. It’s a rough situation.
So where’s the silver lining? The US-Japan trade deal will lower tariffs on Japanese imports to just 15%, so the automaker can probably absorb more of those costs. Last quarter, trade barriers cost the company $861 million, roughly, but this year overall, the company says it’ll just be $3.1 billion. While that’s a lot of money, it’s $1.5 billion less than the original expectation.
This does assume the trade deal goes on as expected, and there’s a reason not to expect that.
The President Thinks Japan Will Be Buying F-150s
Here is something the President of the United States and I agree on: The Ford F-150 is a great truck. It’s great! There is nothing wrong with an F-150 and, I hate to say it, but I’d probably sell my awesome E39 if just the right F-150 came my way (see if you can guess my perfect spec). Where we disagree, though, is on the idea that the F-150 will be a hit in Japan.
The main problem with all of the President’s “deals” is that these things should, by their very nature, take like a year to pull together and not weeks. They do not seem to be actual plans that are fully written down anywhere, and the details are incredibly vague. The President could be playing nine-dimensional chess, but given what I’ve seen from the trade negotiations so far, it’s more likely the administration is playing the shape-sorter game and keeps trying to shove the same star-shaped plastic block into their own throat every time.
Anyway, read this from Bloomberg:
“They’re taking our cars,” Trump said of Japan in a phone interview broadcast by CNBC on Tuesday. “They’re taking the very beautiful Ford F-150, which does very well. And I’m sure we’ll do very well there and other things that do very well here, will also do well there.”
Are they, though? Is that a thing that will really happen? Does he really believe this? Here’s more from Bloomberg:
While Trump has long lamented the fact that US cars are unpopular in Japan, most experts agree that is due to the lack of vehicles suitable for the market, rather than any barriers to trade.
The Ford F-150 that Trump mentioned in the interview is more than two meters wide even without mirrors, likely limiting its usefulness on Japan’s roads, many of which are less than four meters wide for two car lanes, according to government data released in 2012. Around half of Japan’s households own a smaller class of car that’s less than 1.5 meters wide, to better navigate narrower roads.
Japan has amazing car enthusiasts who actually love American cars and make American cars work on the country’s narrow roads. Please see this great article by our friend Sam Smith about dajiban if you don’t think there’s someone in Japan who would buy an F-150. I know that the F-150 Raptor is an absolutely dope-as-hell truck for a certain kind of Japanese gearhead, and I hope that Ford is working on a way to make that happen. But will the F-150 be purchased in high enough volumes to make the retrofits worthwhile? I don’t see it.
I Am Sad I Never Got To Drive The Genesis G80 Electrified
I was a big fan of the Genesis G90 when I got to drive it. While it doesn’t do all the things a Bentley or Rolls-Royce will do, it will do enough of them at such a significant fraction of the price that it’s probably the luxobarge I’d personally buy. I think it’s cooler to show up in the big South Korean flagship than, like, a Ghost.
What I never got to drive was the ginormous fully-electric G80 Electrified, though I hear it was good. It’s also going away, according to InsideEVs:
Recently, an eagle-eyed Twitter user noticed something while browsing the brand’s website. The G80 Electrified had disappeared from Genesis’s lineup, with no announcement. Had Genesis quietly canceled the G80 Electrified?
Well, after reaching out to Genesis, the answer is yes. The G80 Electrified is gone for the 2025 model year.
“The customer is at the core of every decision we make, and we remain flexible as we adapt to ever-changing consumer needs and market conditions,” said Jarred Pellat, senior PR manager of Genesis North America. If you’re in search of a fully electric Genesis, the brand will be happy to sell you the GV60 or GV70 Electrified.
Is this a sleeper pick for a great used luxury car? Maybe!
Stellantis Might Have Shot Itself In The Foot With This One
Every day, I learn something new about how the rollback of environmental regulations impacts the market, and today what I learned is that all those deals some automakers struck with California are still in play through at least this year, and for Stellantis, probably longer than that.
Most of this doesn’t really impact the automakers (Volvo, Honda, BMW, VW, Ford) involved because it only goes through the next model year, and those plans were long ago made. Stellantis, though, is in a different situation. You’ll remember the State of California and Stellantis were locked in a prolonged battle over what the company could or could not sell there, and elsewhere. Sensing that the whole world was going to be more EV-friendly, Stellantis cut a deal that, in retrospect, doesn’t look that great.
Here’s how Automotive News sums it up:
For the 2028-30 model years, Stellantis is also obliged meet ZEV sales requirements. However, the company and the state “shall in good faith confer” no earlier than Jan. 1, 2026, to agree on the requirements, considering in part “the extent to which Stellantis would be harmed, relative to other manufacturers, if Stellantis is restricted, in whole or in part,” by its commitments, the agreement says.
Stellantis also committed to “put forth its best efforts to sell as many ZEVs as reasonably possible” in participating states outside California through the 2030 model year.
“There’s a little bit of mitigation of the scope” of Stellantis’ agreement, “but it’s still not an insignificant requirement for them,” Burns said.
Jodi Tinson, a Stellantis spokesperson, declined to answer specific questions about the extent to which the company has concerns about its obligations and said only that the company “continues to honor its agreement with CARB.”
How much is “good faith” worth these days?
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Here’s Clipse with “M.T.B.T.T.F.” and the excellent question: What’s a Testarossa if you don’t test’em?
The Big Question
What cars should we send to Japanese enthusiasts, and what do we want back in return?
Top photo: Acura
Jeep is surprisingly popular in Japan. I saw a lot of newer Wranglers in Tokyo and older XJs in the more rural areas. They come in RHD (which you can also buy in the US for rural postal service). I’m not sure what draw Jeep has over their domestic 4×4 offerings, but the Japanese do appreciate novelty, so maybe that’s part of it.
Possibly the cleanest XJ I’ve ever seen was in Tokyo. Maybe we should bring back the XJ manufacturing tooling from China, to make a few dozen of them a year to export to Japan?
Pretty much the only US “vehicles” I could see being useful in Japan would be along the lines of UTVs for utility/agriculture/etc work. They are probably the closest thing we have to what I’ve seen in actual use over there for any application.
That or an enclosed golf cart masquerading as a kei car. Either would probably be so much more expensive than what they already have that basically no one would bother.
Except that the Japanese invented the side-by-side UTV with the Kawasaki Mule in the ’80s (honorable mention to the Honda Odyssey/Pilot of that era as well). Now all the Japanese powersports and agriculture brands have UTV offerings.
Forgive me for this off-topic tangent: My grandfather designed, built and sold a vehicle bearing his own name in the 1950’s that was configured an awful lot like the Mule we got in the 1980’s. Apparently my grandfather was about 30 years ahead of his time, he was a clever sort. Unfortunately he never sold enough of them to break even.
My cousin has the only example I know of extant. They were sold mainly in the Chicago area, if anyone ever sees one I’d love one of my own.
ChatGPT did say the earliest roots of the UTV could be traced to the Willy’s Jeep and sand buggies like the Meyer’s Manx and tube-frame sand rails, which would have gone back to the 50s. Plenty of militaries had small utility vehicles for carrying ammo, bombs, etc at airfields too.
Oh, for sure, this category is just about the only one I’ve seen in Japan that (I’m assuming) the US makes something in. I certainly don’t see why someone there would buy an imported Polaris (are they US based?) whatever over the stuff they already have.
Yes, Polaris is US-based. Like you said though, I’m having a hard time seeing an advantage for the Japanese to import US vehicles over their home brands. Maybe for EVs, since that’s not a strong suit for Japanese makes? Japan hasn’t been invaded by the Chinese brands, so US EVs might find a market in Japan, though last I was in Japan several years ago, their charging infrastructure was pretty sparse.
Ford is extremely popular in other Asian countries that don’t have their own domestic brands. For example, I saw Ranger Raptors and Explorers everywhere in Thailand as Ford has a plant in Thailand that exports to the greater Asian market.
Ford F650 and the Hummer EV1. Good start.
Every purchase comes with 30 coupons for free chili dogs.
Tesla or Costco dogs?
My concern with any of this is that you need to sell to the average buyer in order to make it work. The average buyer probably doesn’t want anything we sell because most of it doesn’t make sense for them in their environment(roads/infrastructure). And, no, they won’t buy anything with a gun held to their heads, like is basically being proposed.
Japan bought around 4.5mil cars last year. Basically none were from the US. What is the goal here? Add another 100,000 cars to our export list? Who cares. I thought the free market was supposed to be a thing.
Let’s be honest here, there are extremely few American cars, built ever, that would have any volume of appeal in Japan. Any assumption that the Japanese would like Buicks is way off base.
Really, there’s only a handful of unique, specialized American cars that would appeal to a small subset of Japanese citizens with money. They all have one thing in common- history.
Corvette, Mustang, Jeep. That’s about it.
And who’s going to buy them? Japan’s average age is like 87. There hasn’t been a baby born since like 2011.
> Japan’s average age is like 87. There hasn’t been a baby born since like 2011.
The hyperbole made me lol.
The answer is simple. Put maximum tariff pressure on Japan until they widen all their roads. Sure, they’ll have to tear down all their cities and rebuild them. Hmmm…that sounds interesting to opportunistic real estate developer.
Paging Godzilla, Mr. Godzilla please pick up the white courtesy phone…
Idk about the F150, but the Maverick would probably be good for Japan. We don’t really have much to offer Japan because we got rid of all our small cars, and I imagine the Japanese consumers would get taxed out the ass for a V8 (I think they tax 6 cylinders too). Maybe Ram and GM should jump in the compact unibody pickup game and we can send all three. It’s eaiser to justify one for the US if it’s for the US and Japan. America is known for their pickup trucks, it’d be an easy play for ads and hopefully an untapped market. Might as well send the Santa Cruz too (which is not American, but it is built in America). As far what I want from Japan, I was thinking more new base-model hybrids with AWD and every old 2-door Skyline that isn’t totaled, the real ones not the G35s. Maybe the Delicas too, for people with kids. And a shipping boat full of those sodas with the ball in it. Yeah that’s it, don’t want to be greedy.
Elio. Ship them Elios.
The frozen cardboard pizza squares?
The Pixar movie? DVD, Blu-Ray or UHD 4K?
Toyota and Nissan probably have alternatives to the Maverick that just aren’t sold here. They’d optimized for affordability focused markets and have a larger bed b/c they’re 2 seaters, giving them a cost and bed size advantage.
Yeahhhh. Toyota has one for only 10k. Since the Americans would be crew cabs maybe push it less as a work truck and more as a lifestyle or even some type of luxury equivalent (let Ram lead that one). Peel off a few high-trim rav4s who want something tougher but don’t want the work truck. Unless Japan has those too, in which the US trucks are screwed, send them the Elio’s, and maybe one of the Baldwins (not Alec, they wouldn’t want him for obvious reasons). 2 of the Baldwins at most.
Couldn’t the Japanese buy whatever American car this entire time? I don’t think there was anything stopping legally, you, the Japanese businessman from buying an F-150 other than the high cost of shipping one singular F-150 to Osaka and taxes due. And Ford could have sold the F-150 there if it felt like it. But chose not too. P sure Japan has no restrictions on imports, there is so man Euro-BMWs.
No, no selling US cars in Japan because they had all those bowling ball dents on the panels…
I was shocked how cheap it was to lease a Prologue vs say a vastly inferior Subaru Soltera/Toyota Alphabet Soup. Now I know why.
If Ford sells the F150 in Japan, would they bring in the Aussie spec RHD or would they just go full yeehawburger mode and send it as an LHD? Because both are legal and RHD is more “convenient” yet LHD is seen as more “prestigious” among imported luxury cars.
I’m sure some rich yankii would love to own an LHD Raptor R (or even a Hummer EV), possibly stickered up with King of the Hill graphics.
And a Godzilla peeing on a GM badge sticker.
Everything excessive, so that it’ll all be wiped out in the next earthquake, tsunami, or Godzilla raid.
Modern Kei cars for us.
“or Godzilla raid”
For best results, park them under Tokyo Tower.
M.T.B.T.T.F. and So Be It are the standout tracks.
Let God Sort Em Out is a very good album but not quite Lord Willin’ or Hell Hath No Fury. Kendrick Lamar’s guest verse was great but a bit of a let down after all of Clipse’s label drama related to Drake.
To steal a line from Memphis Bleek, Pusha T has been talking coke rap since the Regan Era but his lyrics do not seem to be dated. Plus, petty Pusha T is the best Pusha T (Story of Adonis, So Be It, Brambleton, Infared, etc.)
Partnering with GM for a new high tech platform was a terrible decision by Honda. It probably looked smart on paper, partnering for local manufacturing, but GM has a great history of tripping over its own genitals on early execution.
I’m currently shopping for an EV, wouldn’t touch a Prologue, ZDX or Blazer even with someone else’s money. I would still need a functioning car while it sat in the shop.
Thatcombined with the current political climate, I’m not sure what Honda’s EV path forward is in the US.
At the moment the only incentives I am seeing from Honda, are the 0% APR 60mo, and $3500 loyalty/conquest cash. I am not seeing how they are spending $12000 on incentives per car.
Also, I think the 0% APR 60 month incentive is simply not as attractive to the consumers’ eyes as $7500 off. Or just make it nice and even- $10,000 off every Prologue. Of course I imagine Honda is reluctant to do that because they have an image to uphold and they don’t want to look like Dodge or GM.
What cars should we send to Japanese enthusiasts..?
Mustang is on the short list here – they already make a RHD version for Europe, where it sells better than I expected it to, anyway.
The Cadillac EV’s are compelling products that should work in the luxury market basically anywhere in the world.
Lincoln SUV’s (at least the ones smaller than the Navigator which just wouldn’t work on Japanese roads) are some of the best in the world, IMO, and they offer real product differentiation to what is on the global market, so there is value there.
Here’s a crazy dark horse – what about Slate EV’s?
I think Tesla, Lucid and Slate EVs have a decent shot. Other cars, no.
Genuine question – with the very large majority of the Japanese population living in cities and apartments and the attendant difficulties with plug-in charging of EV’s, how is EV adoption going there? I simply don’t have any information about that. One one hand I can see EVs as attractive since Japan has always had to import all its oil, but on the other hand charging in extremely population dense areas is a real difficulty.
Incidentally I think these issues explain why Japanese companies tend to be leading the charge on hydrogen, both H2-ICE’s and fuel cells. It could very well make more sense for their domestic market.
Nissan has an EV kei car called the Sakura, which seems to be popular enough over there. It’s basically an electric version of the Dayz.
EV adoption has been slow because Japanese carmakers themselves have been rather slow in transitioning. And hydrogen is a bad idea even in Japan. That is a dead end road they have marched down.
For some reason the Japanese have had this outsized cultural fixation with the hydrogen atom. Not sure what that’s about. /s
It’s been years since I visited, but I’m told EV charging is not too bad, with many multi dwelling units having charging*. The real issue is with the urban density, nobody really needs a car and few bother. Unlike ‘Muricans, the Japanese usually walk to the bathroom v.s. driving a couple miles.
*confirmation required.
huh, the slate evs would prove to be interesting.
and yeah, cadillac has a really good shot at succeeding in Japan, plus they even make factory RHD EVs so that factor can really increase their mass appeal.
Minor correction. No RHD version for Europe since the UK took their ball and went home.
It would be only the UK anyway, since AFAIK actual Europe drives on the correct side of the road.
Cadillac probably has the best shot as long as dimensions and weight aren’t too large, and they already make some in RHD. I feel like Lincolns overlap with Lexus too much, and they don’t make them in RHD.
Alert the burn unit.
SUVs/CUVs/trucks are the wrong application for EV tech.
EVs with decent range should be the “budget” option, not 4-cylinder ICE. That means aerodynamically-efficient spaceship-like designs with tiny, inexpensive battery packs that are easily replaced, in a vehicle that is easily/inexpensively repaired/maintained, and the car itself with an MSRP of under $25k.
The entire point of EVs is to save money and/or reduce environmental footprint over using ICE, and the overwhelming majority of modern EVs are the antithesis of that.
For many people, you couldn’t give them a modern EV for free and have them take it, and their reasons are typically valid.
Alas, Americans seem to buy cars by the pound. I wish we could free ourselves from this perception that we need gigantic vehicles (my ire is reserved mainly – but not solely – for trucks) to cart our butts around town.
What you’re describing sounds a lot like the EV1. I would have loved one, but I don’t think I represent the avg American’s consumer preferences (even if they were allowed to buy one).
The tiny-battery math doesn’t work as well in the real world. With a tiny battery, you will be stressing the battery more every time you accelerate from the stop light. So you would actually get a worse lifetime.
I do agree that here in the US we have way too many > $55k EV’s, and far too few <$30k EVs (ie. none). But that is just the dumb politics of the US. If it wasn’t for our trade barriers we could having $20k BYDs as entry level cars.
Studies have found that the Italian tune-up doesn’t actually hurt battery longevity, and possibly might even help. Also, a ‘tiny’ battery in this case might by 50kWh vs 80kWh, which is roughly the same magnitude of size.
The Solectria Sunrise had a 200+ mile range at 60 mph on 26 kWh. 0.17 Cd value.
A properly-designed, aerodynamic sedan or wagon with roughly the frontal area of a Nissan Versa, able to comfortably fit an entire family, shouldn’t need more than 0.18 kWh/mile cruising 70 mph on the highway. Any more than that is just terrible design. That would be possible with a Cd value of about 0.20 and some of the most efficient street legal tires available. It wouldn’t be too difficult to keep such a car at or under 3,000 lbs by keeping the battery under 40 kWh(eg. BYD Seagull at 2,800 lbs). It might get 150 miles EPA range, and closer to 200 miles real-world on the highway.
0.12 kWh/mile in a reasonably comfortable sedan is possible if the efficiency is the major focus over aesthetics to the point where the Cd value approaches 0.13. Which would allow you to shave a few hundred pounds off the battery weight to get the same real-world highway range.
The problem with the Solectria is that it makes some unviable packaging compromises to achieve that 0.17Cd: 2-door with little 2nd row headroom, front end can’t pass safety regs (even ignoring collision strength, pedestrian safety requires a certain shape), and the rear wheel cover is unfortunately an aesthetic no-go. A 0.22Cd is reasonably achievable for a sedan IMO. Also keep in mind the Seagull is under 4m in length and is thus exempt from full crash safety regs; the EU version (Dolphin Surf) w/ full crash safety weight 3,100lb.
No production car is ever going to approach 0.13Cd, we are already pushing the limits with the VW XL1 (0.186Cd).
I generally like your take on things, but I would appreciate if you could educate me on something. Let’s say, just for the sake of it, that the EPA test cycle represents real world mixed driving, how much of that is at speeds where aerodynamics is even a factor? I mean, even the freeways around Toronto are largely stop and go low speed, not to mention the urban/suburban roads. Sure, for longer distance highway driving it’s a big deal, but I would rather trade off aerodynamic efficiency for improved visibility in most of my driving use cases.
Now for your initial point “SUVs/CUVs/trucks are the wrong application for EV tech.” the real bugaboo there is weight. Adding even more weight to already overweight ‘butch’ vehicles is a losing proposition.
Most of the EPA highway test is at speeds where aerodynamics matter, but aerodynamics’ impact is reduced because there’s a lot of accelerations and decelerations, greatly increasing the role of mass with regard to the final results.
https://www.epa.gov/vehicle-and-fuel-emissions-testing/dynamometer-drive-schedules
An extremely aerodynamically-efficient EV’s real-world highway range at 70-75 mph will be significantly more range than the EPA highway rating implies. The GM EV1 had this issue, with the EPA rating it at 105 miles, when its real world highway range over long distances at 65-80 mph was more like 130-160 miles.
For the EPA city cycle, aerodynamics almost amounts to noise.
However, it is interstate highway driving where long range tends to actually matter.
I was using EPA as a yardstick use case. My question is more about how much aerodynamics matters in the real world. Yes, interstate driving it will be a big factor, but that’s not everybody’s needs. I get that a brick like many SUVs and trucks will lose measurable efficiency at even 30MPH, but this fixation with hidden (and often electric) door handles, goofy looking air curtains (that ice up really good in our northern climate, BTW) and compromised visibility, seems too much for me. The only reasonable explanation I have been given is that with EVs being quieter, wind noise is a challenge.
Oft times, manufacturers focus on minor sources of drag reduction that cause massive expense/inconvenience(such as electronic door handles), while ignoring things that would compromise styling but could yield massive differences such as changing the rear end or installing rear wheel skirts.
In the real world on long-distance highway-speed drives, aerodynamics is the most important factor to a vehicle’s efficiency. In the city, it is mass and rolling resistance that matters the most.
Lower drag vehicles have an easier time reducing wind noise than high-drag vehicles.
Your comment did just make me think of one simple elegant tweak from a few years ago. Subaru had those swing away roof rack crossbars that integrated into the rails. Pretty low tech and good design. How much they increased efficiency is debatable, but I’m sure they were quieter.
Too bad the typical Subaru owner probably drove around with an empty carrier bin on them all the time anyway. 😉
Canadians may be less susceptible to this, but Americans love the idea of driving 100+ highway miles everywhere daily plus 2000 mile road trips every weekend, and demand low traffic and high speed limits (Houston-ification). Of all the gov’t test cycles, EPA emphasizes high speeds the most (highway test is at 55-60mph, + a few seconds at 80mph).
For ICEs, the primary source of losses is from the horrendously low thermal efficiency of the engine (~40% best case, ~30% normal), hence the focus on engine development and transmissions for optimal RPMs, followed by energy lost to friction braking. Aerodynamics still plays a decent secondary role in the highway cycle.
For EVs, motor and drivetrain efficiency is very high (~90%), meaning aerodynamics is the dominant factor even at speeds as low as 45mph, followed by rolling resistance (weight dependent). Weight is a much reduced factor because regen braking can recapture most the extra energy needed to accelerate the extra mass, which pure ICE cannot. Motors do get a bit less efficient at high speeds (70mph+) but this varies based on type (bar-wound vs wire-wound). In general, I can tell how good the range rating of an EV will be based on just the battery size and the shape of the rear-end (where most aero drag happens).
The WLTP or notorious CLTC cycles might better match your needs; CLTC is basically a simulation of Shanghai rush-hour stop-go traffic.
For your last point, it is the ‘butchness’ (styling and thus aero) that affects EVs worse, not the extra weight. Plus, due to the raised floor needed for the battery, a tall wagon CUV like the Equinox EV fixes the legroom/headroom packaging problem that normal sedan/wagon EVs have.
It’s amazing how many people I have heard tell me they love their quiet time in the car on their hour plus long commute. I love my quiet time in my living room.
I kind of get it but after 15 minutes I just want recline and not be stuck in a car seat with a foot on the pedals. A reliable bus service and some headphones would be a nicer experience!
> Americans love the idea of driving 100+ highway miles everywhere daily plus 2000 mile road trips every weekend, and demand low traffic and high speed limits
You forget towing the boat to the lake (once a year) and using “the wife”‘s truck to tow the 8-person RV with it.
The problem with this argument is that cost parity is furthest away for small cars. Sure you could make a budget small EV for $25k, but the same budget small ICE would be $20k and get 45 mpg.
more accurate headline:
Honda had to bribe people 21k per car to buy a shitty GM knockoff
The new ZDX and Prologue are the worst Hondas since the Passport and SLX, which also weren’t real Hondas and were rebadged Isuzus, which of course is also affiliated with GM.
Have you driven any of the mentioned vehicles?
another idea: perhaps negotiate with Japan to raise their kei car limits, so that international city cars could be sold there:
max displacement 1L or at least 900cc
max length 145 in (just over 12 ft/3.7m)
max width 60 in (5 ft/1.53m)
max height unchanged at 2m
of course, electric kei cars would still be allowed
Remember, there is no official power limit, just a gentlemen’s agreement between the JDM car companies. For example, the Caterham 7 has 80 hp but is still certified as a kei car in Japan.
A velomobile-sized single seat Kei car with a CdA of under 0.1 m^2, mass under 300 lbs, and AWD with 200+ horsepower would be amazing. Mass produced, it could be dirt cheap competing with mopeds and low-end motorcycles on MSRP, while offering most of the benefits of a car. Hand-built, it would have the performance to justify its price tag. Either way, there’d be a market for it, however big or small.
Why would Japan change regs for an entire category that basically only exists for that market? Just because an orange bully demands it?
no, because those tiny keicars really only work in Japan and can’t be exported successfully, which is why they reduced incentives on them, raising the taxes, etc.
The Japanese govt did that because the kei cars that only sell in Japan take away resources from developing cars that can be sold in other markets.
Raising the limits would make them in line with the smallest cars sold outside Japan, and their exportability would make them much more successful.
FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCKKKKKKKK you don’t give anywhere NEAR enough time to edit LOL
Detroit’s biggest success in Japan was the Chevy Astro, which was LHD-only.The Dodge Ram Van “Dajiban” had some success, too.
So, roomy boxy cars are the ticket to success there. There is absolutely no reason we can’t make cute lil kei cars to sell over there. Maybe the New Big 3 (Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid) could make a kei car in their non-union facilities, free from UAW baggage weighing them down. Tesla Model K for a mainstream boxy kei car, Rivian R6T for a kei truck, and Lucid Gale for a kei sports car.
VW could make the Amarok here.
Why would US companies tool up to make cars with exactly one small market, which could shut down overnight if their next PM behaves like POTUS and just says so? That would be a dumb business move we haven’t seen in a long time.
If the price/value is good enough, they can sell them worldwide, not just the US and Japan 🙂
Absolutely nothing unfortunately, we live in a time of nothing but quid-pro-quo, backroom deals, and corruption. This administration only recognizes the words “good faith” if it’s printed on the subject line of a blank check.
You know who probably did not lose thousands on every Prologue or ZDX sold? GM
“The President could be playing nine-dimensional chess,”
Trade wars is like string theory. Just ask Brian Greene how it went.
I find it very hard to believe that our ridiculously over the top body on frame vehicles would be a hit in Japan or frankly just about any sensible first world country. They’re too big for the roads anywhere else, everywhere else (correctly!) taxes the ever living shit out of such wantonly massive and wasteful vehicles, and with our reputation as a country in a rather dour place right now amidst all of the MAGA chaos I feel like rolling around in a foreign land in a lifted F150 is going to draw a very specific kind of attention that’s similar to what driving a Cyber Truck here attracts.
These are big, stupid vehicles that are total overkill for 95% of applications and the US is rather unique in the fact that it’s considered cool and good to be incredibly wasteful. That’s very much not the case anywhere else I’ve traveled, and international markets have access to all sorts of cool Japanese body on frame shit we don’t already.
This is one of the things that has me very worried about the future of our automotive industry, especially in this climate of immediate gratification when all that matters is your next earnings call. I get that it’s a jovial time for people that want the biggest, most audacious, and wasteful vehicles they can get their hands on and that Ford, GM, and Stellantis are already shifting to accommodate as many of those people as possible…but at the end of the day that’s a uniquely American phenomenon.
Eventually the pendulum will swing back in the other direction, gas prices will go up, etc….and they’ll all be caught with their pants down swinging their willies around going HAHAHAHA V8 GO BURRRRRR FUCK YOUR FEELINGS LITTLE SOY BOY. It’s simply not sustainable abroad and it’s only temporarily sustainable here…but again, that next earnings call and making as much short term money for the already incomprehensibly wealthy but never satiated is all that matters.
Idk, I think there is a subset of people that exists in nearly every culture that just wants to be brash and obnoxious and “flex” on people. You could definitely sell Escalades, TRXs, and Cybertrucks to those people.
Oh I agree that those people exist everywhere, I just don’t think they exist in the numbers necessary to make selling those vehicles a great long term strategy.
80% of that market would probably consist of selling Raptors to the royal families of the various oil countries so the 6th crown prince can add it to his collection.
I mean- there are lots of trucks in Asia. It’s just that they are real truck. They are not pretend-trucks. Our pickup trucks have a huge long snout in front almost as long as the truck bed. In Asia, most trucks are the cabover variety that are much more space efficient and very easy to park or make u-turns. And the beds are typically stake-sides that are infinitely configurable. Our pickup-trucks now have the unfortunate problem of having the bed just as high up as the stake bed, but without any of the usefulness.
Probably the place where American pick-ups could sell, is Thailand. They also like 4 dr trucks with short beds. Outside of Bangkok, Thailand still has a lot of rural areas with long dirt driveways etc, where it makes sense to have that type of truck as your family car.
Are there even any mainstream “American” (non-truck) vehicles that aren’t garbage? Other than the Corvette and Bronco, I can’t think of anything from the Detroit 3 that I’d actually want to own.
I agree with Matt that the F150 is a nice ruck, but the bar is pretty low these days. I’d choose the F150 were I to go with a full-size p/u (I actually DO kind of want one, but I’m not in that tax bracket), but they’re basically the lesser of 4 evils.
GM, RAM, Toyota, and Ford are all having issue with their trucks. That considered, the Ford looks like the best bet and being mostly aluminum at least it won’t rot out in 5 years. Even then though, on all their gas engines they’ve moved to a rubber drive belt in oil for their oil pumps, which sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. From what I understand, it has an expected 150K service life. Seems like it could be a big Achillies heel, and a major repair at 150K will convince a lot of buyers to just trade the thing in, likely tanking resale. Maybe that’s the plan, planned obsolescence at 150k miles.
Frankly none of them due to the LHD-RHD disparity between our countries.
Only ones I can think of that are mostly exempt from this issue are the Daihatsu Midget II and the Toyota i-Road.
I wish Daihatsu would make an all electric Midget III.
LHD vehicles can be sold new in Japan, and LHD is seen as somewhat of a status symbol there.
As can RHD vehicles in the US, doesn’t mean they’re practical.
No argument here, just saying RHD is not a hard requirement in Japan like many people think it is.
They’d be popular for postal carriers. For example, you can buy a brand new RHD Wrangler from the Jeep dealer, but the Wrangler is a shitty car with awful mpg as well.
Some mail carriers buy used JDM cars for that reason: more reliable and much better mpg than a shitty Jeep.
20 years ago, there were even more options, including a Saturn wagon and an Outback.
Therefore, a cute lil kei car would be soooo much better for them!
My suburban neighborhood has a 90’s Nissan Homy to deliver our mail. It cracks me up.
yell at the carrier and say “sup, Homy?” 😛
Homy don’t play that.
I always point and say “my homy!” When I drive by it. Our mail carriers dont seem to have the type of personality that likes to laugh, so I haven’t included them in the joke.
And this is the issue, you need to sell to the average buyer, and they probably don’t want to deal with LHD. There aren’t enough enthusiasts to make it work.
Just make cars people want to buy. It shouldn’t be hard for a company that has been making cars for over 100 years LOL
Detroit’s biggest success in Japan was the Chevy Astro, which was also LHD-only. There was also the Dodge Ram Van “Dajiban”
“Honda is in the position where it’s losing a lot of money every time it sells one of these cars”
Which is what I’ve been saying since people started pointing out how the Prologue was out selling the Blazer and that GM should be embarassed by that and/or that the Prologue sells better because of CarPlay.
Fact is they give them away. An ad for the Prologue has returned to the video billboard on my frequent travels. $209/month $2800 up front is the current deal.
Meanwhile GM is laughing its way to the bank as they make money on every single Prologue sold and Honda has a contract to fulfill preventing them from slowing down purchases.
So as the old car sales tag lines go. ‘PRICE SELLS CARS” and “We will sell you a car regardless of loss”
Gm is offering $3500 customer cash and 0%APR60mo on the Blazer EV’s- pretty much identical to the Prologue. GM is only ahead in that they built their own cars instead of having to pay cold cash to buy from someone else.
But GM can control how many they build with a Blazer badge, while Honda can not control how many Prologues they buy. Plus you can be certain that every Honda that rolls off the line is sold for more than the variable cost to produce, hence net positive cash flow for GM.
It’s easier to sell Americana to people that you haven’t already pissed off.
I guess that leaves just Tel Aviv.
You spelled ironic wrong.