Technology in new cars is advancing at a faster pace than at any other point in my lifetime, and as a journalist, I have to work extra hard to keep up with everything. For regulators, this is an even more daunting challenge. Regulation is reactive and not proactive, which is true even in China, where the government is attempting to get a hold on the development of self-driving cars and the deployment of over-the-air updates.
I made an apricot bourbon ham yesterday for Easter supper, and I’m still recovering, so editor, please excuse in advance any obvious grammatical difficulties in today’s Morning Dump. You all will be rewarded for your patience with a story from an Italian website clowning on me and our resident racing driver Parker just a bit.
If there’s one company that relies on the idea of self-driving cars for its extreme valuation, it’s Tesla, so this self-driving news probably isn’t good for the automaker this morning. Almost none of the news is good for Tesla lately.
Nissan has also been an automaker visited repeatedly by the Bad News Bunny, but if you’re a fan of the automaker, you might be happy to hear that a new GT-R is on the way.
Chinese Government Warns Of Self-Driving Car Claims, Wants More Care Around OTA Updates
In some ways, the Chinese car market has become more advanced than the one here in the United States. There’s a wider range of EVs available, more battery options (including swappable ones), and more players in the intelligent driving space. A lot of this is the work of the government, which has made a concerted effort over the last two decades to be a leader in these areas.
In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has provided generous incentives to companies trying to develop EVs and smarter cars that can be updated wirelessly (OTA). The government giveth, and the government taketh away.
Reports came out this weekend that the government was suddenly very concerned about all of these technologies. Here’s a concise wrap-up from CNEVPost:
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a closed-door meeting with 20 companies on April 16, calling for a halt to public testing of driver assistance software and for all updates to be filed, according to a screenshot of the minutes of the meeting circulating on social media today.
Car companies were asked to refrain from using words like “self-driving,” “autonomous driving,” “smart driving,” “advanced smart driving,” and instead use the term “combined assisted driving” to avoid misleading consumers, according to the minutes of the meeting.
The MIIT wants car companies to reduce the frequency of software OTA (over the air) updates and provide them to vehicles only after sufficient verification has been completed.
This is good. All of this is good. I didn’t sign up to be a public beta tester of self-driving technology, nor did most people. Our reactive approach here in the United States is not great and is not likely to get a lot better at the federal level anytime soon. While OTA updates are a great convenience, and new cars, being more software-dependent, will likely have to be updated more frequently, that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be extensive validation before implementation.
There’s always a push-and-pull with new technology, and it’s important that governments let new tech flourish up to the point that it becomes a societal cost. If I could go back in time, I’d probably like to have seen more work done to protect us from social media. Instead, I just tweeted a bunch.
In response to these reports, the MIIT did put out a short (Google translated) statement:
On April 16, 2025, the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to promote the product access and software online upgrade management of intelligent connected vehicles. Nearly 60 representatives from the Ministry’s Equipment Industry Development Center and major automobile manufacturers attended the meeting.
The meeting focused on the requirements for product access and online software upgrade filing in the Notice on Further Strengthening the Management of Product Access, Recall and Online Software Upgrade of Intelligent Connected Vehicles issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation, and listened to the implementation and suggestions of automobile manufacturers. The Ministry’s Equipment Industry Development Center introduced the key issues of concern in the management of product access and online software upgrade of intelligent connected vehicles.
The meeting emphasized that automobile manufacturers must deeply understand the requirements of the “Notice”, fully carry out combined driving assistance testing and verification, clarify the system functional boundaries and safety response measures, and must not make exaggerations or false propaganda. They must strictly fulfill their obligation to inform, and truly assume the main responsibility for production consistency and quality safety, and truly improve the safety level of intelligent connected vehicle products.
This didn’t come out of nowhere; Chinese social media has been buzzing with info about the fatal crash of three women in a Xiaomi SU7 that was reportedly being used in self-driving mode.
All of this regulation talk sounds entirely reasonable, although this isn’t going to be good news for Tesla. The American electric car company has been lobbying China hard to allow it to roll out its “Full Self-Driving” technology to more users in the country. As a camera-based system, Tesla needs a lot of data to be successful. The longer it has to wait, the further ahead rivals might get.
Tesla Bulls, Analysts Downgrade Company
The stated goal of Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (or DOGE) is to slash unnecessary waste in federal funding. By Musk’s own admission, this effort will fall short and has, seemingly, created more confusion and trauma than increased efficiency in any obvious way. What Musk has done quite efficiently with DOGE is make his once-popular car company extremely unpopular with a lot of potential buyers.
According to Cox Automotive’s monthly EV Market Monitor, Tesla took another hit last month:
In March, the volume of new electric vehicle (EV) sales increased by 18.5% month over month to 107,594 units, although the EV market share dropped to 6.8%. Year over year, the new EV sales volume increased by 8.2%. Tesla’s market share fell by 5 percentage points to 42%, although the Model Y and Model 3 remained the top-selling vehicles. It was a strong month for Chevrolet, Hyundai, Genesis and Cadillac, with each brand experiencing a month-over-month volume increase of 50% or more.
Fearing tariff-related disruptions, a bunch of people went out and bought cars. With a falling market share, this means that fewer people are choosing Tesla as their choice for an EV than in the past.
Wells Fargo’s auto analysts think lower deliveries this quarter will also coincide with lower margins, and they’ve set a price target of $130 per share. This is a lot lower than the $227 per share the stock was sitting at this morning. That’s Wells Fargo; let’s check in on permabull Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities, via this report from Bloomberg:
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives said Elon Musk should step back from his controversial work at the Department of Government Efficiency and re-focus his attention on Tesla Inc., adding the electric-vehicle maker faces a “code red” moment as it prepares to report first-quarter earnings Tuesday.
“Musk needs to leave the government, take a major step back on DOGE, and get back to being CEO of Tesla full-time,” Ives wrote in a report to clients Sunday. “Tesla is Musk and Musk is Tesla….and anyone that thinks the brand damage Musk has inflicted is not a real thing, spend some time speaking to car buyers in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. You will think differently after those discussions.”
Damn, Ives called a “Code Red” and downgraded his rosy stock estimates based on the idea that the company is not focused on delivering cars/tech and instead focused on too many other things The little issue of reports about a lawsuit involving Tesla allegedly speeding up odometers on cars to avoid warranty repairs can’t help, either. It’s a bad news week for Tesla, and it hasn’t even had its earnings call yet, which will be tomorrow after markets close.
New Nissan GT-R Coming, Eventually, In Hybrid Form
If there’s any sports car that should be a hybrid, it’s the Nissan GT-R. The company has always used the halo vehicle as a tech-forward supercar killer (many called the R35 a computer-on-wheels when it came out), utilizing AWD and turbocharging well before most of the competition.
The R35 generation is taking its bows with no immediate successor ready to be revealed, but the faithful won’t have to wait that long, according to Nissan Americas boss Ponz Pandikuthira in an interview with The Drive:
“We are going to have a certain level of electrification there,” Pandikuthira said. The executive said, “solid-state batteries will be the key enabler to make that happen.”
The reason is heat management and energy density.
Pandikuthira made cases for the next GT-R being either a hybrid or a plug-in hybrid. The decision isn’t locked due to the unknowns with tomorrow’s battery tech, but he likes the idea of a plug-in hybrid. With today’s tech, though, a conventional hybrid makes more sense on a track.
A conventional hybrid Nissan GT-R with a solid-state battery sounds awesome.
Parker And I Getting Stuck In A Fiat Makes The Italian News
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Just in case you missed it, one of the highlights (lowlights?) of the New York Auto Show was when Parker and I almost immediately got ourselves trapped in a Fiat Topolino. It took longer than I care to admit to figure it out, and while someone walking around could have gotten us out, I did feel too embarrassed to ask for help. It was funny so we blogged about it, as one does.
The Italian car site ClubAlfa also thought it was worthy of a post, writing:
The two journalists, Thomas and Parker, attracted by the compact and original silhouette of the small Italian vehicle, decided to get inside to better observe the Topolino’s interior. However, once inside, they were surprised to find they couldn’t get out.
Hah! Thomas? He wasn’t even there, though I’m happy to let him take the blame.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
In honor of ingesting probably too many Rice Krispies treats this weekend, here are Talking Heads with “Sugar on My Tongue.”
The Big Question
Do Chinese regulators have the right idea about self-driving cars?
Top photo: BYD
Do Chinese regulators have the right idea about self-driving cars?
in one sense yes, by restraining misleading “…words like “self-driving,” “autonomous driving,” “smart driving,””, etc. that cause false expectations and tragic consequences.
in another sense, it depends upon the process and performance standards for “…sufficient verification…” of OTA updates.
ideally, those would be consistently applied and transparent.
i don’t think i’ll be ideal.
Someone had to regulate it. Its surprising china is on the face of it. But they are the leaders in it despite what certain people may try to claim. Many very good systems. Regulating the names also needed to happen. I really figured the EU would be first to regulate because it’s their thing Brussels lives to regulate but they don’t really have the fees on the roads in any numbers so China it is. It seems practical you built this system to do this you have to make sure it does. It does come into question how disposable are these cars now. It’s the same as a phone or computer so that’s fun back to the 70s and before we go where your car only lasts a few years.
Like it or lump it, lying, lackey liar lies a lot. Lost leader losing luster at ludicrous speed.
Regarding Tesla’s downgrade… as is typical with most analysts, this recent announcement is coming ‘a day late and a dollar short’. I saw that things were gonna go badly for Tesla as soon as I saw that Musk was getting heavily involved in government while ALSO staying involved with Tesla. I knew that for ‘political blowback’ reasons alone.
And thus, I sold off my Tesla shares last November.
And in my view, any analyst worth their salt should have seen this coming and doing downgrades by the end of last year and definitely no later than the beginning of March when it became clear paying attention that Tesla sales were being negatively affected by politics.
But as is typical, analyst ratings are worth exactly what you pay for them.
Nothing.
“New Nissan GT-R Coming, Eventually, In Hybrid Form”
If we were in the 2005-2010 time frame, then yes.
But we are in 2025 and hybrids are not the cutting edge anymore.
If the GTR is to be a cutting-edge product, that means it should be a BEV.
And I’m thinking it should be a BEV along the lines of the stuff Rimac sells, but at a fraction of the cost.
“Do Chinese regulators have the right idea about self-driving cars?”
Yes.
Apricot Bourbon Ham? What are you, too fancy for Rum Ham?
I agree with China.
Wait, did I accidentally fall into a mirror universe back in November? One where Chinese leadership, of all people, are more concerned about the safety of their citizens than the US?
This episode blows. Can we skip to the next one yet?
Well, the U.S. has a much higher proportion of its population incarcerated as well, and is currently working to remove all consumer and environmental protections, so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
OTOH, we haven’t been (up until this year) actively disappearing people. Nor do we have massive ‘reeducation’ camps visible from orbit with absolutely no outside access.
A discussion can certainly be had about the US state & Federal penal system, but anyone who thinks China isn’t way ahead of us on gulags is buying the propaganda they’ve been feeding the US public for a good while now.
Eh, the US has been actively disappearing people for years, just not usually to foreign countries. The US imprisons more people than China in straight numbers and is top 5 in incarceration rate per 100k.
This isn’t to say that China is good, more to point out the US has been bad for a long time, and the horrors and suffering have largely been normalized.
I’m obviously not saying the US is good—but, when people are arrested, we don’t (to my knowledge) have police personnel carrying massive screens out to quickly block the public from viewing of filming those arrests
Chill out a bit. Of course, there have been many “disappearances” in the U.S. from the global to the federan and down to the local level. Not the same way or amount as China but it has happened for a long time. The U.S. and China both engage in massive levels of propaganda as well.
The point, in part, is that there is no doubt that much of the world knows U.S. to be a huge threat to peace and democracy if they don’t like the outcomes. The main point is that all the nationalist propaganda has led the U.S. into a very dark place with no realistic method of extracting itself.
The U.S. has rarely been “the good guy,” despite what the propaganda often says, and now is without a doubt the biggest threat to the world.
Despite the propaganda and a lot of genuine human rights abuses, China is trying to be a successful nation and has competent people working towards that end. That will take you a lot further than the alternative.
You’re going to throw your shoulder out of joint handwaving that hard.
I’ve been to China. I know what it’s like there. You’re not going to convince me it’s an awesome place or that I should be rooting for them on the global stage. It’s a country that is all about repression of the general populace. The fact that the US is headed down the same path does not mean it’s suddenly cool.
Not trying to, lol. My only point was that trying to do something with competence will get results, no matter how cruel.
Wow, that Topolino looks so much like a Citroen Ami, at least in that photo. Glad you escaped its clutches Matt. 🙂
I believe it’s based on the Ami!
Makes sense. 🙂 Thanks Joshua.
I’ll say yes to the self driving/ota update stuff. Which is really sad how far behind we are on regulating a lot of newer technologies. I guess stuff gets stuck in the tubes and here we are trying to back it up like a dump truck.
I think this odometer story might be a real coffin nail for Tesla. If the “Algorithm” that adjusts mileage only ever increases it rather than decreasing for some drivers to make an equal overall average, then the intent seems obvious and fraudulent. Musky has always liked to play wink wink games with margins, semantics, and estimates. Something akin to “Yeah I made a huge promise, but I phrased or qualified it with this little escape clause, so haha” kind of stuff. But this one looks like plain book cooking. That book being warranty claims. If this is real, it seems like it must have been intentional and I don’t see any valid excuses.
How many Teslastans can you realistically get on a civil jury? Probably not enough. If this what I suspect and can make it our of arbitration to a real court, this should be a BFD.
The DOJ and NTSB should be all over this, but DOGE just canned the NTSB folks that should be looking into this, and this really isn’t the forum for evaluating the DOJ.
I’ll just say it probably won’t turn into the scale of corporate malfeasance story that it should turn into.
There will undoubtedly be more civil suits, but I’m guessing the government treats it as a big nothing burger.
Yep, that’s why I only mentioned the civil potential, as I expect nothing but defenses of Tesla by what few ‘regulators’ might be left.
“I think this odometer story might be a real coffin nail for Tesla.”
Personally I think political blowback with Musk’s affiliation with Trump is the real long-term nail in the coffin… but this odometer thing is definitely really REALLY bad… IF the lawsuit is successful and becomes highly publicized.
My new boss asked me if I’d ever done work for Chinese EV companies (being involved in EV manufacturing for a number of years, now).
I replied: “no, I hadn’t” as China had been behind everyone. Until they weren’t. Impressive stuff.
What’s next?
What I’m listening too
It’s rare that a song with a similar title as a Talking Heads song can outweird them, but System of a Down did. Check out SUGAR by SOAD
https://youtu.be/5vBGOrI6yBk
Elon just needs to leave. Period. End of sentence.
DOGE has been a disaster that will end up costing taxpayers more in the long run, and that’s not even taking into account the pain and suffering imposed on the government workers directly affected by DOGE’s gross incompetence. There’s going to be a very long tail with all of that.
As for Tesla, his vanity project Cybertruck is an abject failure (not only are they sitting on $200M in unsellable inventory, they have to recoup $900M in costs associated with the production facilities, according to an article I just read), we’re still years away from legitimate self driving technology (and when we get it, it won’t be with a camera only sensor suite), and his own board of lackeys/directors counselled him against the Robotaxi concept. To me the $130 stock price target seems a bit generous.
SpaceX is doing well as a company, but there’s an argument to be made it’s because he’s left it alone lately (though how much of that has to do with his drug use & China connections vs military/government pressures to stay away, I don’t know).
He came here under false pretense (student visa, but quit school to play in venture capital) so based on what they’re doing with others right now, there’s sufficient grounds for him to be expelled. Not that that’s actually going to happen – all he’d need to do is drop $5M on one of those Gold Cards and he’d be right back in, and that’s probably less than a month’s worth of child support anyway.
Guess I ate too much for Easter. Sorry.
Elon needs to be strapped to the inside of a rocket nozzle of the next Falcon launch.
It’s high time for him to piss off to Mars like he wants to. He can figure out how to survive when he gets there.
Two quick things about Musk that occurred to me over the weekend:
Instead, he’s sitting around f*cking himself, his investors, his employees, and a bunch of government employees at the same time. And also kids with measles and malaria in the developing world.
Yeah, I guess the US is bumping its way back down to the developing world, isn’t it?
https://arstechnica.com/health/2025/04/each-measles-case-in-raging-outbreak-costs-up-to-50000-cdc-official-says/
Part of the measles blame needs to be shared by the parents who did not vaccinate their children. 96% of cases unvaccinated per CDC.
…and CDC will soon stop keeping and publishing statistics…
“If we just stop testing people COVID numbers will go down”
The old ‘out of site, out of mind’….sad that we’re allowing anti-science policies to prosper.
I still can’t get over the quote from one of the moms of “It wasn’t too bad, they got over it quickly”…. for her other 4 children after one DIED of measles.
Thats gonna stick with me for a while
My favorite old quip about sample bias is “We all played with rusty nails and guns as kids, and we all turned out fine! Just ask anyone.”
This stuff drives me nuts. You know what has been decreasing steadiliy (with a few bumps) for 200 years? Childhood mortality rates! You know why? Medical advances and safety regulations!
So has our ability to think critically.
That’s legitimately why people used to have so many kids, some of them were going to die from diseases that weren’t preventable. Now we have people opting their children into preventable diseases.
I was talking specifically about developing countries (where access is the issue, not trust), but the irony isn’t lost on me.
“Tesla Bulls, Analysts Downgrade Company”
Presumably you meant Bears, as Bulls are long/optimistic on a company.
His point is even the perennial optimists are downgrading the price targets. It wouldnt be news if traditional bears were further downgrading price targets.
Oops, misread permabull there.
I know that I’m old because I just can’t understand the self driving “Manhattan Project”. I love driving as it’s one of life’s moving experiences. I understand some people don’t see it that way and find driving a chore. What is sooo important that you can’t drive from A to B? Watch a movie? Put on makeup or trim your beard? Take an Uber .I’m sorry, I just do not get it. But it’s Okay. Soon, me and my kind will be gone.
I love driving, but I love sleep a lot more.
As they say ” you can sleep when you’re dead”.
You can combine the two with self-driving cars.
COTD
Thank you for explaining my sarcastic remark????
Thank you for explaining my sarcastic remark!
Stay on the road long enough with FSD running, and you will be dead.
I don’t see the appeal of self driving for short trips, but it would be great for long distance travel. It would be nice to be able to go to sleep at night and wake up at your destination, or at least a few hundred miles closer to it.
The only downside is that you would have to be careful typing in the address. It would suck to wake up in Manhattan, Kansas when you thought you were going to New York City.
Great observation. I believe they already have that technology. I call it aircraft.
Thanks to everyone for their reply.
Except that the air travel experience is complete garbage and is only getting worse.
But you can sleep!!!!
I’m not sure why everyone always says airplanes or trains replicate the experience of a self-driving car for long distance travel. They don’t.
A self-driving car could take me from my current location to the exact place I want to go. I often travel to places not well served by airports, so air travel usually involves a few hours in the car before or after the flight. I find that, in a lot of times, medium length trips are actually faster in a car than an airplane when you factor in transportation to/from the airport as well as waiting. Plus, the car works around my schedule, unlike an airplane or train. Also, sometimes I am driving because I have to transport cargo; not all travel involves with small amounts of luggage.
I get that you are not interested in a self-driving car, but is it really that hard to see why self-driving cars might be useful for some people?
Especially for someone with “misanthropic” in their name I can’t believe you didn’t mention the other major advantage. A self-driving car is a way to travel without subjecting oneself to the rest of society.
Spending time crammed with hundreds of random people in a plane or train is annoying at best.
That is probably the biggest advantage of a self-driving car, realistically. If self driving cars become a thing, I doubt I will fly anywhere within 1,500 miles for that reason alone.
I love driving and don’t want to sit in the drivers seat of a car that is mostly driving itself with the idea that I will suddenly need to take over at any moment.
I want to have a fun/dynamic car to drive, but at some point if I can get a room that takes me places while I work, sleep or do whatever then I’m interested.
People are already doing those things without self-driving so I’d definitely rather them have that feature available.
I rarely see people driving from the back seat. Thanks, again!
Minimum of 45mins each way for my commute, with zero driving enjoyment due to traffic (and stupid slow drivers on the passing lane). Only mass transit option would nearly double the time.
I miss the jobs where I could take a train to work, and sleep during the ride. I miss the years when I didn’t have to go into the office even more. So yeah, give me a self-driving vehicle.
You can love driving and hate your commute. Can you seriously not understand how someone with a 1-hour commute would benefit from not having to pay attention to the road for 2 hours a day? So they could have leisure or productive time? Read a book, take a nap, schedule doctor appointments, text your mom back, get through some emails.
Don’t they do that now?
I drove 2 hours a day (if lucky) in Houston traffic for 30 years.
I guess self driving will help you get more work done. Before the cell phone you left work and you were done. The cell phone came along and you work when you are not at work. Now you can work while you drive. Would you be in favor of also having to work while you sleep? I am sure that’s coming!
Agreed completely…it’s sorta like different tastes in music, movies, etc. but I extremely love driving, it’s one of my favorite things ever, and will never understand those who don’t at least enjoy it some (and I get that it can be less fun in gridlock traffic- I just turn up the tunes more and enjoy!) but as far as this, it’s just another aspect that people just like different things
100% yes, Chinese regulators have the right idea for “self-driving” cars. Given the confusion about the true abilities of Tesla Autopilot and other L2 driver assistance systems, this seems long overdue. A lot of less informed people have the idea that some of these cars (cough, *Tesla*, cough) really are self-driving. I pop those bubbles all the time.
Yep, my gauge for when a car is truly “self driving” is when the manufacturer is liable in an accident. Until that point, it’s just a driver aid…
My guess is that when there are a billion people, some of them will get run over by a car operated both without a driver and with the approval of the government.
I feel like there is some kind of lesson to take away when China pours huge amounts of money into its tech focused auto industry, controls the media narratives, and still says “let’s cool it with the self driving stuff”.
This is the correct take.
Right? Notable country that’s super fond of human rights *checks notes* CHINA thinks that the safety of its citizens is more important than corporate profits but the US does not. Hmmm.
That tracks. They want to take us back to the Triangle Shirt-Waist Factory era of manufacturing where people are completely expendable.
“Do Chinese regulators have the right idea about self-driving cars?”
Yes.
Still getting used to being shown up by the “bad guys.”
There’s also the added confusion about the communists being the free global trade advocates now and the ‘land of the free’ imprisoning dissenters
It all gives me “Are we the baddies?” vibes.
Good tip!
Look up Mitchell and Webb “Are we the baddies?” on youtube.
Brilliant!
I first saw that years ago but am finding it more and more relatable.
If you like British humor, their shows “That Mitchell and Webb look” and “Peep Show” are brilliant.
Ask a few Europeans who they think are the “bad guys” right now. 😐
I don’t think you need to restrict it to Europe. It is obvious globally.
Yes, however let’s not forget that Marine Le Pen won 41.46% of the French vote in 2022. Meloni WON in Italy. Also Brexit in the UK (although not technically Europe). Nationalism is rising worldwide, which historically has been a bad omen. I think there’s a lesson here as to how much cultural globalism populations will accept. They will generally go along with free trade, grudgingly accept international political institutions (UN, EU, WHO), but draw the line at the perception of unfettered immigration.