I think the global pandemic sped up the inevitable reconsideration of the way our society is structured, and if you wanna buy me a beer, then one day maybe I’ll tell you all my thoughts on technofuedalism, China’s acceptance into the WTO, and Citizens United. The Morning Dump, which you are reading, is focused on car news, so I’m going to start today’s news roundup with a speech/post from Ford CEO Jim Farley that obliquely touches on a lot of the same topics.
With one big exception, companies are essentially non-partisan organizations, but the sense I’ve always gotten is that Ford tends to trend to the left of the Detroit automakers, which is to say: a politics that is something akin to Romney Republicanism. At the same time, the policies of Donald Trump are probably the least bad for Ford, and that creates a potential advantage for the blue oval brand.
The policies of the White House might be most bad for a company like Volkswagen, which is why it’s not a surprise that the company is pouring money into American EV startup Rivian. Things are also bad for Japanese automakers, which face massive tariffs that probably aren’t going away anytime soon.
This leaves companies like Nissan in trouble, which is perhaps why Nissan is reportedly asking its suppliers for a little relief.
Ford Wants To Support ‘The Essential Economy’
The focus on funneling every kid who could manage it into a four-year college made a sort of sense in the ’80s and ’90s, as the economy expanded into a software-based one that relied on a lot of Office Space-like coding and project management. It was also logical under more open immigration policies designed to encourage labor expansion that resurfaced under Ronald Reagan and continued until the first Trump Administration.
This country has long relied on cheap, imported labor for some percentage of its less glamorous work. With NAFTA, China’s acceptance into the World Trade Organization, and even the USMCA, a lot of this labor didn’t even have to be imported, as a lot of manufacturing was shipped abroad. This had all sorts of outcomes, some of which were positive (cheap goods, relative global peace), and many of which were negative (the hollowing out of American labor, the destruction of Rust Belt communities).
In both a LinkedIn post and a speech at the Aspen Ideas Festival, above, Ford’s Jim Farley explains why blue-collar jobs are the “essential economy” that is the backbone of our society, and how we’re mostly failing to uphold it. Specifically, he points out that the country is short 600,000 manufacturing workers and 400,000 auto mechanics. This is a big deal! We are, as a country, very much in need of people to fill these kinds of jobs.
As Farley points out:
Lately, the attention of Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and Washington has centered on exciting breakthroughs in A.I., quantum computing, and robotics. These innovations have brought huge opportunities to white-collar workers. But what about the 95 million workers who rarely sit behind a desk – those in essential industries like construction, service and maintenance, agriculture, energy, and skilled trades, who go to work largely in trucks and vans every day? I think, amid all that excitement, we’ve lost sight of the backbone of our economy: the Essential Economy.
These important people support 3 million businesses and critical industrial sectors across the country, generating $12 trillion of our GDP. They service our homes, repair our vehicles, and respond to emergencies. The Essential Economy transports our raw materials from mines and delivers our goods to stores – and even our doorsteps. It protects and sustains our communities. In short, it’s the jobs on which we rely every day that won’t be replaced by A.I. or automation – at least not anytime soon. Even more importantly, the Essential Economy continues to be the engine of the American Dream, turning hard work into upward mobility.
Consider that, since 2017, productivity in the white-collar economy has risen 28%, in part thanks to leaps in technology that deliver greater efficiency. But, according to new research by The Aspen Institute, those who are out on our roads and working with their hands have actually experienced a negative trend in productivity for a decade. Productivity is the key to unlocking profits for businesses and shareholders, lowering the cost of goods and services for consumers, and growing our GDP – so a problem for the Essential Economy is a problem for us all.
Taken at face value, all of this is extremely true, and Farley’s advice for what to do next is also quite logical:
- Make permitting easier and faster, reduce red tape.
- Spend more on vocational training/create trade schools focused on future jobs.
- Create a sort of “AmeriCorps for the Essential Economy.”
Specifically, Farley takes on the idea that AI is going to replace a lot of white collar jobs that require four years of expensive college:
“Artificial Intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S. You know what job is [not going to be replaced]? Well, I mean putting up that power line, building that factory, laying a new water system,” said Farley in his speech.
This isn’t just important for our workforce, said Farley, it’s also important for defense.
“What, is Google going to make the tanks?” he joked when talking to biographer Walter Isaacson.
You know who this is also good for? Ford. Not to discount anything that Farley said, because I think it’s all generally true, and I have no doubt that he believes it (Ford has put its money where its mouth is), but the company’s hardcore shift into advertising that it’s the most American automaker comes at a time when it is greatly to its advantage to do so. As Farley himself mentioned in the speech, if the country reinvests in blue-collar work and trade schools, the people doing those jobs will probably be driving Ford trucks.
From a competition standpoint, GM has had fewer quality issues and utilized Mexican production to post better financial numbers for years. Now GM finds itself somewhat on its back foot, as it’s having to prove its American-ness with bigger investments in the United States, whereas Ford already has the largest UAW workforce and has less production to shift. While Ford probably wants all of the investment in electrification to continue, Ford’s limited exposure there means it can focus on highly profitable trucks if all of it goes away.
The unsaid thing here is that, with unemployment so low, it’s not clear who exactly will take these unfilled jobs in the interim. Historically, this is where immigration has been greatly to the advantage of the American economy. In the long term, we can start training people to become electricians and not work for Salesforce, or whatever, but with the Trump Administration trying to limit immigration, it’s not clear how many people who work in offices are going to suddenly want to go back to school to become a plumber.
Volkswagen Puts $1 Billion Into Rivian As The Company Loses Less Money
Rivian is a curious company. It makes great software and good trucks, but not in a way that’s made it anything close to profitable. The future of Rivian is a cheaper electric car, which requires a lot of capital. Volkswagen has capital, but what it lacks is the ability to make great software. This is how we ended up with Volkswagen becoming a major investor in Rivian. Earlier this year, VW put even more money into the company.
All of this money is contingent on reaching certain goals, and the latest $1 billion from VW to Rivian is not dependent on gaining access to technology, but merely being less of a financial disaster, as Manager Magazin reports:
Rivian’s overcoming the hurdle for the second billion-dollar injection from Wolfsburg, however, has nothing to do with the project’s technological progress. It was only necessary for the partner to achieve its financial profit targets. The company, founded in 2009, has been struggling with losses for years, but has now closed two consecutive quarters with a gross profit.
This opened the door for the payment from Wolfsburg. Ultimately, however, Rivian also posted a loss last quarter. At least the net loss was significantly reduced – from $1.445 billion to $541 million.
While Rivian isn’t a VW brand (yet), under a new tariff regime, it probably doesn’t hurt Volkswagen to have access to a local company.
‘Mr Japan’ Is Unfair To US Automakers, Says President Trump
Trump: “I’m going to send letters. That’s the end of the trade deal. I could send one to Japan. ‘Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story — you’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars.'”
— The Bulwark (@thebulwark.com) June 29, 2025 at 11:17 AM
President Trump sat down with Fox News to talk about a wide range of topics, including tariffs, and the comment that stuck out to me was his insistence that Japan doesn’t allow cars to be sold there. Some of this may stem from his belief that Japanese regulators throw bowling balls at cars to disqualify them (which is not true). Japan has historically put up walls to foreign companies selling cars there, though the country actually has a 0% tariff on imported vehicles.
A big reason why America probably doesn’t sell a lot of cars in Japan? American car companies historically don’t design cars to Japanese tastes, whereas Japanese automakers are great at building cars Americans want [Ed Note: To be fair, the U.S. is a bigger market, so building a car specifically for it makes financial sense. -DT]. While Japanese car companies in this country do make similar models to those in that country, like the Toyota RAV4, there hasn’t historically been a huge amount of car exports from the US to them. Why not?
After WWII, it was greatly in the interest of the United States to build up Japan’s economy as both a hedge against future aggression/communism and to create another market for America. The fact that Japan has historically been great at designing consumer products has sometimes created freakouts here (see the Chicken Tax), but mostly America has viewed Japan as an important ally in Asia.
In this context, you can understand why Japanese negotiator Roysei Akazawa seems a bit flummoxed about what to do next, as Bloomberg reports:
Akazawa has repeatedly said that the US’s car tariffs are unacceptable, saying that Japan’s auto industry has made an enormous contribution to the US economy through the investment of more than $60 billion and the creation of 2.3 million local jobs.
Japan has insisted on keeping the sectoral tariffs on cars and other items included in the talks on the wider country-specific levies that are due to go up on July 9. Upon his return to Tokyo on Monday, Akazawa reiterated that stance while saying the deadline is a milestone in the talks.
“It’s a huge blow to us that the auto sector remains subject to the 25% tariff,” Akazawa said. “Taking this into account, we aim to continue vigorous discussions toward an overall agreement.
While I don’t see Japan suddenly importing a bunch of F-150s, perhaps American oil can help move the countries towards a deal.
Nissan Reportedly Asking For A Pause In Payments To Free Up Cash
Nissan is in a bad way, and it apparently needs a little cash to help dig itself out of the hole it created. How is it going to do that? Reportedly the answer is: squeeze suppliers!
Nissan has asked some suppliers in Britain and the European Union to accept delays in payment, according to the correspondence reviewed by Reuters and a person with knowledge of the matter.
The move would allow it to have more cash on hand at the close of the April-June first quarter and follows similar requests before the end of the last financial year in March, the emails showed.
It is not uncommon for companies to request payment extensions from suppliers to help free up cash. In a statement to Reuters, Nissan said it had incentivised some of its suppliers to collaborate under more flexible payment terms, at no cost to them, to support its free cash flow.
“They could choose to be paid immediately or opt for a later payment with interest,” Nissan said.
Nissan is good for it. Probably.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I love a good cover, and here’s Ted Leo covering both Kelly Clarkson’s “Since U Been Gone” and “Maps” by Yeah Yeah Yeahs! This is both a fun reimagining of these great songs and a reminder of the singing ability of both Clarkson and Karen Oh.
The Big Question
What career advice would you give to a 16-year-old kid today?
Top Image: Ford; depositphotos.com
A chatbot is not going to do those things, but is Farley forgetting about robots and drones? Truck driving is a solid blue-collar job. And it’s in imminent danger of disappearing because of self driving trucks.
As for advice to a 16 yr old…Yes, it will make you blind. Go get a job or be good at sports. Those are your choices.
Also, here is your first phone in your life. You are paying the bill or it goes away.
Don’t let Farley lead you to believe otherwise,but if he could have his way all blue collar jobs would be replaced by AI….Every year they have a rebalance period at each Ford plant….And at all auto plants by every manufacturer…During that time Ford directs each plant to eliminate a certain number of hourly blue collar jobs……Usually they like to cut at least 50-75 hourly people per plant,per year……So theoretically within 10 years a plant that has around 1000 workers at the start of the decade will have less than 500 at the end of the decade,maybe even less……Then the workers that are left are the ones picking up the slack on their overloaded jobs.
Not really. It is true that those of us that work as manufacturing engineers are charged with steadily reducing the hours required to build a vehicle. However, those changes happen mostly through new designs that require less assembly work and through automation. Generally the labor reductions made by not replacing workers when they retire or quit. We aren’t just randomly cutting jobs and then telling the remaining workers just to do more.
However, the more labor costs the easier automation pays back. The UAW negotiating themselves a 25% pay raise when they were already making about $65 per hour on average in wages and benefits didn’t help their cause. That pay raise will directly lead to fewer workers.
Find a field that has gatekeepers. Preferably ones like a professional license or specific certifications. Ideally both! Study those gates and the gatekeepers. Convince the gatekeepers to let you enter. Then keep up the professional learning once inside the gates. And, when someone tells you to do something ethically dodgy, tell them no. It’s not worth it.
“What career advice would you give to a 16-year-old kid today?”
Pfft… I have kids who were 16 not that long ago and I gave them plenty of advice.
DO YOU THINK THEY FUCKING LISTEN?????
<playing on phone> YEAH I HEARD YOU </continues playing on phone>
I would tell my 16 year old self and any 16 year old to pursue whatever they enjoy doing that is constructive or creative and/or helps people.
I liked working on mechanical things but was literally told that I was “too smart” to be a mechanic and I should be an engineer. I didn’t want to sit in front a computer all day running calculations, I wanted to get my hands dirty. If I had had anyone give me the advice to just do what made me the most happy and was still constructive, my life would be completely different and I definitely wouldn’t have wasted 10 years of my career working my way through the financial sector.
“What, is Google going to make the tanks?”
No. Why would they? Tanks are yesterday tech like battleships.
Google is going to make the $500 tank killing kamakaze drones.
I read a study about AI use in the workplace that said 68% of Gen Z workers use AI to generate reports and emails.
So if two gen z employees are sending emails back and forth, more likely than not that’s just two chatbots talking to each other.
Too late.
I had a conference call recently with some concerned customers; the meeting was lead by a manager who spoke almost 100% in corporate buzzwords – it wasn’t “thanks so much for working with us on short notice,” but “we appreciate your assistance in acquiring a path for our success.” Who seriously talks or thinks like that?? That’s the kind of white collar job that I could easily see being taken over by AI.
Advice for a 16 year old? Depends on how much their high school situation sucks. If it was anything like mine (piss poor math education, vocational classes only aimed at people interested in farming, very little science) and they’re interested in an engineering or science career, talk to someone about picking up some community college classes. I know some high schools offer AP courses, or dual-enrollment classes; absolutely go for that if it’s an option. And don’t discount the ability to write; one of my best teachers in high school was a history teacher, and she took the time to bring in college professors to teach us how to sit down and organize our thoughts into a cohesive paper. Even though my job doesn’t require me to write essays, I do have to write plenty of reports, and this was one of the most valuable skills I learned in high school.
Trades are absolutely critical, and should be more highly valued…especially since most of them absolutely wreck your body. My favorite mechanic told me this plenty of times before he retired; at least the place he worked valued his skills enough that there’s an opening available for him to go back and train the new hires, if he’s so inclined. So like any career, you’ll need to plan for an eventual exit, probably a bit sooner than you would think.
And don’t stop learning!!! Whatever post-high school education path you select, it’s not the end when you graduate…keep reading and keep practicing, maybe even take classes. Stay curious! It doesn’t always translate to a promotion or a raise, but it certainly makes job transitions easier.
It doesn’t help that a lot of places are getting rid of vocational skills (I had zero offered at my school) and that they’re pushing the kids into the college path. And kids being kids they don’t look at college as an opportunity for their future, they see it as a big party/fuck around period, thinking a degree in anything will get them a decent job (it won’t). The schools need to reset and actually be looking out for the kid’s future (as opposed to the payouts they get per kid committed to college, and the pat on the back the teachers give themselves thinking they “saved” these kids from a life of hard work) to fix any of this, but they probably won’t come to that conclusion until the AI replaces the teachers. And then since it’s now their problem, they’ll care, but it’ll be too late. As one of my friends put it “we’ll be the first generation of people telling our kids NOT to go to college, to go be a plumber or carpenter” and while I’ve never been an education guy (but was pretty good at it) that statement, while true, is still very sad
Have any American automobiles been produced in right hand drive for Japan? Has any American auto executive tried driving an average American car in Japan?
If not, I think they might need to stop spouting shit about Japan.
Just my uneducated opinion.
I remember the Saturn SL1 being produced in RHD and being sent to Japan back in the day. There was also the “Toyota Cavalier” which was a Chevy Cavalier in RHD form with Toyota badging. There was the Toyota Voltz which was a rebadged Pontiac Vibe (would it count since the Vibe and Matrix were made in the same factory?).
The best part: GM was too stupid to sell a RHD Vibe over here for postal use.
The SW1, Outback, and various Jeeps have been used for this purpose.
Not sure about Japan, but Ford currently makes RHD versions of the Mustang and Mach-e for the UK. Seems like at least the Mustang wouldn’t have strong competition in Japan unless there are some JDM coupes I’ve forgotten. Supra and Z are both 2-seaters. The GR86 is waaaay down on power. Q70 is long gone and Lexus is EOL’ing the RC.
In most countries, big engine displacement means high taxes.
That alone tends to keep displacement heavy American cars from selling.
You’d think that would be true, but my understanding is that when Ford made the Mustang available in the UK and Europe a few years ago, they expected the ecoboost to outsell the 5.0 by 3:1 or something along those lines. In actuality, the 5.0 outsells the ecoboost. Mustangs in foreign markets will always be niche vehicles targeting enthusiasts. Those enthusiasts are apparently willing to pay the higher cost of ownership for a good ol’ Murican V8.
On the other hand, I don’t think there would be a chance in hell of Ford, GM, or Stellantis beating the Japanese in mass market cars on their home turf.
My advice would be to take your education seriously as soon as possible. Too many glide through high school because they think they’ll figure it out after they graduate. Many still apply the same mindset into college and assume everything will work out.
You don’t have to plan your entire life but set a trajectory for yourself and ensure you have opportunities to pivot if needed. Learn all you can about careers you’re interested in and the best way to get there. Keep your mind open though, your values and interests will change over time and you never know what life will throw at you. Adapt and bend, don’t break.
Take any vocational or dual credit courses your high school offers, even if you don’t necessarily intend to go to vocational school or college. Definitely take life skills and economics classes if they aren’t mandatory. I learned a lot in high school economics class about budgeting and saving money that some of my friends are only figuring out post-college.
Pursue apprenticeships/internships whenever possible because you’ll need experience on your resume, even for so-called ‘entry level’ positions. I didn’t do this, and it made my job search an awful time.
If you have the free time after school, start working part-time so long as it doesn’t interfere with your education. Put as much of your income as you can into whatever long-term savings account you choose, 401K or otherwise. The younger you are when you start saving, the better.
Live with family as long as you can. Independence and privacy is nice, but what you save from not renting from a stranger is nicer in the long run. I was unable to do this, but I wish I had. Friends of mine with good jobs feel guilty or lesser because they still live with their parents, but I remind them of the rent money I’ve spent in the same time they’ve been able to save.
I have to respectfully disagree on your last point. Every kid needs to get the heck out of the nest as soon as possible. The parent(s) did their job. Now it’s time for the kid to do theirs on their own.
Unless it is for medically reasons, no adult should be living “at home”. Ever. When you can buy beer, you are now responsible for every aspect of your life.
I should have clarified. I don’t advise staying at home so you get to avoid responsibility, but so you can save on rent. You still need to take over all other aspects of your life and you should plan to move out once you have enough saved.
Moving out can be a definite wakeup call, but it’s not necessary for everyone to learn responsibility. Moving away for college then coming back home is a good compromise.
I understand what you are saying, and I don’t totally disagree (to an extent). However, when a kid in college knows they have a loosely defined safety net of moving home, they tend to underperform and delay the whole “I’m still figuring it out” phase.
When I graduated from college, my parents (whom could easily have had me live there indefinitely) gave me the ultimatum. The ultimatum was basically that I had 6 months to figure my shit out, or it was all going in storage, and they were changing the locks.
After that talk at dinner that night, I figured my shit out. Right quick, I might add.
Maybe you’re not as jaded about it as I am because your parents waited until after you graduated and gave you 6 months before they kicked you out. Mine didn’t. I got a call one day after class that I had to get all my stuff out by the end of the week or it would be on the curb with the garbage. I wasn’t leeching either, I had a part time job and still did yard work and other chores around the house.
I see your side though because I have friends who take advantage of their parents’ generosity without any plan to do otherwise. I know people whose parents have given them everything and proceeded to lose it all because they’re too coddled to know how to maintain it.
My perspective is that the ultimatum needs to be them coming up with a post-secondary plan and following through with it. Give them the chance to get it together first. If they stop applying themselves, then they need to face the hard truth and go out the door.
I think we are saying the same thing, lol. 🙂
That your parents understandably wanted you out of their house, doesn’t mean that applies to everyone.
There are a lot of factors involved, including the size of the house, the motivations of the kids, and the family culture. I have a friend in her 30s whose husband and kids all live with her mother. The family all lives in a fairly large house, with several floors divided into private-ish living areas. Staying with her mom helps them fund their children’s education, and helps keep everyone at a comfortable standard of living. As her mother grows old, they will provide for her as she provides for them now.
Well I mean, you can’t technically buy beer till 21.
When you’re in that young adult phase with likely zero dollars and a very very crappy job with bad pay, more than likely the only advantage you might have to save money is to live with parents. I’m not exactly advocating for living in Mom’s basement until you’re 40, but a 22 year old living at home whilst actively working to save in order to be able to leave seems eminently reasonable.
My wife and I moved in with her parents in our mid-20s in order to pay down some debt and put money away for a house. Turned out to be a good investment for them, ten years later they live with us now.
There’s really no right or wrong here if you’re being responsible and are trying to do better.
That’s exactly what I mean! lol. At 21, you are an adult, and it’s time to do adult things.
It’s slightly different if you are married and need a 6-month stay to make a major move in your life.
It’s entirely possible, and it happens all the time, that a 40 year-old has a crappy job with shitty pay. It’s still no excuse to be a leach.
A little bit of tough love never hurt anyone that was mostly mentally competent.
It took two years, and this was before the real estate boom back when houses were half the price. Had we continued to pay rent, we probably would have never bought.
Sometimes the responsible, adult thing to do is to do the thing you desperately don’t want to. Trust me, I did NOT want to live there for as long as we did. But you do what you have to do. Ironically of course, they live with me now.
Leaning on family, assuming that you’re not taking advantage of them, is often best for everyone. In this case, it kept us from having to leave the region, and ended up securing my in-laws their current permanent housing (for most of the year).
Now that rent for a pretty damn basic apartment in the rural Northeast town I’m from runs somewhere between 1600-1800$ a month (no kidding) and houses that were once 200k are now 400k, I would imagine more and more kids are seeing the benefit of taking a few gap years to save money.
Every situation is different, and I’m glad it worked out for you. I really am!
In principle, I still am going to always disagree with the idea of it, though.
That’s how I was raised, and all of my siblings are having a meaningful impact of the world, in some form or another. I’m probably the black sheep, lol, but I haven’t done all that shabby. 🙂
I just value the approach to “raising” adult children that I was taught, and when I personally befriend those that weren’t raised that way, they often have unnecessary problems that are typically associated with bad coping skills.
That’s how I see it, anyway.
I think the historical view of the +/- 75 years following WWII in the US will likely show that the American dream of everyone going out and renting until they buy their own home after a few years is an anomaly. Historically multi-generational homes were very common if not the norm and globally they are still much more common.
I was married before I was out of college and within 3 months of graduation we had moved 1,200 miles across the country so my experience hasn’t followed the multigenerational household strategy but as our parents are getting older I have to say I can see the appeal.
I mean no offense but if you’re starting to work at 16 I can’t think of any legal industry where you can make enough money to save up enough to get a quality camper trailer. Rent has no return on investment, it’s a delaying function to keep you from being homeless while hopefully your other projects pay off.
The military is a meatgrinder even in peacetime, they’re looking to squeeze every bit of usefulness out of your body before you’re too crippled to do anything else.
If you go this route you need to stay sober (no alcohol, nicotine and caffeine are fine but try to limit both), try to pick a non-combat MOS (grunts get all the shit work when they’re not at war, none of it is rewarding in terms of work experience or pay), live in the barracks, eat the base chow, save every penny you get, only investing in gear for yourself to make your life easier and to minimize the wear and tear on your body. That being said make sure you can carry it all easily if you get moved somewhere else. Avoid any romantic relationships, flings, etc. you’re one bad relationship away from being kicked out, possibly with a dishonorable discharge (basically a felony conviction). You’re probably not mature enough for a relationship, and your partner likely isn’t either, and by the nature of the military it’s no place for relationships. Keep your head down at all costs and cover your ass, I’ve had several ‘true believer’ friends get crippled then shitcanned by the military, you are the smallest cog in the meat grinder, they’ll grind you up at a moment’s notice. Treat it as a hostile environment because it is.
I hear good things about the Merchant Marine.
Basically I’d go with a workplace that has free housing, food, etc. and save all your funds till you can afford a quality camper and tow rig at the minimum.
PS: College is shit unless you’re getting a very technical degree, and even then you’re still graduating with debt and you probably won’t be able to get a job that pays enough to get rid of the debt faster than it builds up. Avoid debt like the plague, pay off your credit card every month, avoid subscriptions, etc.
Military, if you test out well, or go tot he Air force is usually an opportunity for retiring twice with dual funds for doing so. a lot of management types come from the military as they are generally more disciplined. And if you have a skill that requires the little document to get int he door at a company looking to hire, then at least you get that paid for rather than get stuck with a predatory Loan that you by design can never really pay off.
Not sure by each state, but a kid can be a caddy at 14. Work at a fancy country club, and you can make great money if you put in the turns. It’s an ever-churning labor pool, so getting hired is pretty easy.
Cutting lawns and pool cleaning can also be quite lucrative when in season (if applicable).
My niece worked at a golf course last year. She made decent money but unfortunately also learned that a lot of men are creepers hitting on her or even trying to get grabby with a 15 year old.
Advice for a 16y.o for achieving success in our US capitalist system:
Talk to people you know (hopefully you have friends/family in many professions/careers) to see what jobs they do and how they like/dislike them.Alternatively, ask people what goods/services they use on a regular basis or a huge expense they had in the past year. Those jobs are where the money goes.Do not seek a career that will not pay enough to even try under capitalism. Don’t do anything SJW related, Social work related, psychology, ‘feel good’ related. We don’t live in an economy that guarantees a livable means for all jobs.List those jobs/careers in rank of difficulty, how much each job can make, how much you like it, and cost to get into (time, degrees, certificates, $ spent on school, luck, skill)List what it takes to get to the end career, make a map on what needs to get done. Make sure you get some level of hands on, ground floor experience through internship or apprenticeship to build a solid foundation.Execute on the hardest career path first. If you realize it’s too hard, go to the next thing on the list. Do not assume you’ll get anywhere with luck. Luck only grants you the opportunity – your skill will guarantee success.
Last advise: You get out what you put into it.
It’s not clear how many people who work in offices are going to suddenly want to go back to school to become a plumber.
If that many jobs end up getting eliminated, want will be far surpassed by need. When it becomes a matter of survival, or at the very least, preservation of lifestyle, it’s either learn to turn some new tricks or go live in Grandpa’s old broken down RV in the Home Depot parking lot.
How many people want that?
Having grown up in a now dead GM town – a lot of people will refuse to move to opportunity or take a lesser job. When the plants closed down a lot of people simply when home and sat until the unemployment ran out, then sold off the toys, then sat at home while their wife worked because they refused to take a job “beneath” them because it paid 1/2 or less of their former union wage. Some sat long enough that they accumulated enough health problems to claim disability – which they collected until retirement time.
Then there was the job retraining like HVAC and others. Plenty of people went to the free course, got certified ……. and then went home and sat because there wasn’t the market for 500 new HVAC techs in town and they refused to move to where there where jobs. I guess they thought the jobs should come to them instead of them going to the job.
Moving is hard – I get it – I’ve moved 4 times. But the time comes to man up and do what needs to be done.
The other myopic element to the “work with your hands” trope as a way forward is that it ignores the macroeconomic realities of AI. If AI is providing the value currently being provided by white collar workers, that “pay” won’t be distributed to blue-collar workers. It will be captured by the corporate owners, CEOs, and those who control the AI. AI won’t create more blue-collar jobs, and if everyone wants those jobs, they will be paid even less. Meanwhile, the top .1% will see their relative wealth explode.
This is why you have a huge increase in spending on prisons and law enforcement. Starts with “illeagal” immigrants today, and turns to the next enemies of the state. What’s that, sad with your pitiful wages and lack of social safety net? Well, the alternative is this prison in a swamp in Florida.
Congratulations on cutting through all the noise and getting to end game. You’ll note all the conservative talk about having more kids has subsided. They simply don’t need the numbers in the world they’re creating. They’ve moved on to Plan B. All dissent is to be targeted. Illegal immigrants first, then anyone who raises a voice to the regime. It’s happened before, it’ll happen again.
Well stated.
Which is why the Universal Basic Income topic is already starting to make the rounds with people. Blue collar workers will be affected int he end as well. automation already handle a lot of the jobs of the past and if automation gets good enough then the only likely job available will be to service those automatons. Assuming Service bots don’t make fiscal sense over a basic human at that point.
Given our current political landscape, I believe the consensus is that universal income will be somewhere between diddly and squat. The only differentiation is whether you will be working in the house of the Musk/Trump/Bezos and their ilk or out in the fields.
UBI will happen in America after about another century of increasingly dire conditions.
Honda has had the most success of all the Japanese car companies in terms of making cars in the US and exporting to Japan.
And remember, BMW is America’s #1 exporter of cars
For the 16 year olds, just do the best you can, study, whatever, get involved in some extracurricular shit, maybe a job, and in college, study something good like engineering, but the focus should be not STEM but STEAM. Yeah, take a good career-focused major but also take some humanities classes too. US History, Literature, Writing, Math, a computer programming course, economics, and science.
The site whatwilltheylearn.com is a good start. Take all the courses they mention, even if not required by the college they attend.
For those interested in skilled trade shit, DO NOT GO TO ONE OF THOSE STUPID FOR-PROFIT TRADE SCHOOLS. They are SHIT and stupid. Instead, go to a community college and get better quality education at a lower price (in some states, it might even be free). The core courses ARE STILL important. Again, whatwillthelearn’s core is a good start; even community colleges offer those courses, so take them if possible.
Read the book before class (the syllabus will say what is being covered each class)
Pick up as many skills as you can, too
Excellent!
Also, if wanting to pursue the trades, find the local trade union of the Trade you want to do and join the apprenticeship program. You’re typically better off that route than doing school then apprenticeship.
Those union apprenticeships have looooooooooooooooong wait lists, like years long. Veterans can cut the line somewhat, but not completely.
That’s the only reason I didn’t mention them.
Advice to for a 16 yr old? Don’t think that college is the ONLY path. Find something you have a passion for and try to figure out how to make it pay. Don’t be afraid to start small or to fail. Be able to distinguish a hobby from a career. Don’t shy away from hands-on work or experience. Learn a skill AI cannot perform.
I agree with Jim that many traditional white collar jobs are coming to an end in the near future. We may be entering a blue collar renaissance – or slave chattelhood.
Here’s the problem: for most people, unless they go to private high school, or test into an accelerated learning program in a wealthy school district, high school is a joke. I graduated with kids that couldn’t read. 18yo kids that could not read. WTF.
So, then people go on to college to basically learn what they should have learned in high school. Unless they can afford to go to a great private college that doesn’t accept remedial students.
We end up in a situation where nobody knows how to problem solve or learn and adapt to the changing world because they missed out on any education. You don’t need college to learn how to problem solve and be adaptable, and those two skills are critical for people to live a successful life, in any aspect of society. Even a good criminal needs to be able to adapt to changing situations and be a good problem solver.
Instead we have a government more interested in controlling people, telling us what to do, pushing a religious education – remember the last time we did that as a society? 1000 years of misery thank you very much.
Remember: ‘No child left behind’ rewards high schools for raw statistical numbers, not actual results. They aren’t concerned with kids learning, just as long as they can pass them off to someone else before or after their stats are met.
Thanks for the support, government.
*Republicans.
I think this is a bit of an exaggeration. I went to public school in a rural town of 2500 people. Everyone knew how to fucking read.
I do volunteer work with teenagers now and, outside of those with learning disabilities or those living in abject poverty, Ipromise you they can read.
I always wonder why my local community college has classes that teach people how to read and write English or do arithmetic.
There are hobbies and work. All disciplines or hobbies can be made to provide enough money to live on. But, you need to determine what is important to you. “Love”, generally, is not going to sustain you. “Like” will.
Keep the things you love as hobbies, unless your talent can support the risk of taking it professional. At that level, it’s very possible to fall out-of-love with your hobby.
Find something you like, and make it your profession. It’s a bonus if you really like it. But, make sure it’s something you do like and can tolerate for the rest of your life.
The funny rule-of-thumb I’ve heard is that you go to college so you don’t have to work weekends. If you work trades, you may or will. And, your body, generally, gets beat up more than if you work in an office.
I’ve worked my whole career as an engineer in an office, Monday to Friday. I happen to also love my job, and can’t imagine doing anything else. I have an 18y/o just at the beginning of his adult life, and these are some of the words of advice I have given him.
This makes me warm and fuzzy. I like it.
“Cut through red tape”
It was never red paint. It was always blood-soaked.
My advice to a16 year old, don’t become an automotive vlogger. it’s no way to live.
My advice for 16 year old, especially if they don’t know where to go, just enlist, you get paid, get training, yeah there’s some risk but you then also get healthcare for life, maybe not the best healthcare but again, free.
That’s optimistic.
Free healthcare? Have you seen the way the GOP is decimating the VA? They couldn’t care less about vets.
This. The current group of ass wipes DGAF about anyone except themselves.
Same as it ever was…
“…look where my hand was..”
Yeah, but they sure like to create them.
My advice to young people is to not listen to anyone about what career is going to be hot in the future. By the time you get through whatever training you need, you’re probably going to be way late to the game. And the reality is, you don’t really have control over what jobs are going to exist in the future anyway. Go for something the you have a passion and motivation for, that has some sort of value to others.
-signed, engineer who graduated during the peak of the recession
Somewhat related, I’m pretty bummed about how hostile people have gotten towards the premise of college, and the idea that soon everyone is going to have a massively lucrative job in the trades. I know plenty of people in the trades, and most of them are pretty unhappy with the pay and the impact that the work has on them physically. I’ll never understand why people are excited for this future where white collar jobs are eliminated, and everyone get to become a skill laborer? I have plenty of respect for blue collar jobs and the people that do them, but we should be trying to target a balance between these two options, not completely eliminate one for the other. Does everyone really believe that these jobs are going to pay oodles of cash? Especially after you supposedly train hoards of people to do them? Does anyone really believe that these companies are excited to pay their workers “top dollar”? No, once they get the supply of workers they need, they’re going to milk that workforce just like every industry always has.
My experience with college so far is that it is a massive waste of time and money. I’m going to one of the cheaper state schools in the country (but still in the top 50% of colleges in the US), and I was learning more and greater value information back when I’d mop for 18 hour days while listening to podcasts, and frankly I’ve had more fun pissing out blood and kidney stones (sometimes together, sometimes separately).
Maybe a technical field like being an engineer is more rewarding intellectually, but business certainly isn’t, and the pay you get isn’t worth the debt you take on.
Like most things, YMMV. I’m sure some programs suck/aren’t worth the money or time. For me, there was no way I was going to learn what I learned in college on my own through YouTube videos. I needed that in-person program/commitment.
Honestly, if there’s anything I’d like to see change about college, is when kids tend to go. I think a lot of kids would be better served starting programs a few years later. But getting into competitive programs is tough when admissions likes to see motivated young people who are “all-in” on a career path even though said kid has absolutely no idea what they really want.
As I understand it, you can only have one gap year between high school and college to qualify for FAFSA and financial aid from most states. It would be much better if a few more gap years were allowed to let people mature and understand where they want to go with their lives.
It’s totally nuts that a 17 year old (I left for college before my 18th birthday and obviously committed to school long before that) is expected to make that sort of decision with such dramatic potential consequences. It’s not shocking that it doesn’t work out for a lot of people.
Around here, they put a chain saw in the hands of a 17 year old, then wonder why he’s dead.
You’d be surprised at how some of that education will come back to you at the weirdest moments. In the end, it is what you put into it and how you decide to use it.
Part of college is learning how to learn, how to think, and how to speak and act like an adult. Unless you are getting an absolutely abysmal education (in which case you should transfer) then your attitude may be as big a problem as your curriculum.
I went from working on the weekends during high school, to working at that same job for another year, then welding school for 2 years, then 3 years of working, now I’m about to start my 3rd year of college.
Being a kid of old parents I learned how to think, speak, and act like an adult before I hit puberty, with the occasional bout of childness. By the time I was 14 and with the help of facial hair people thought I was in my 20s, even after long conversations, not just first impressions.
My attitude about college certainly isn’t great, but my professors find me to be very respectful, and I ask and answer the overwhelming majority of questions in the classroom. 80%+ or more the fellow students in my classes never asks or answers a question during a lecture ever. So participation isn’t a problem for me.
More than half of what they teach is mostly useless. Except for the Introduction to Business Law course I took first semester every other class has been mostly useless.
I have a Mechanical Engineering degree. I don’t use the vast majority of what I learned in school. However, the degree opens the doors to the jobs that pay.
As to business – it is the most common degree with almost 20% of college grades earning that degree. If you want to succeed you are going to need to be in the top quartile. Doesn’t hurt to set yourself apart with some other skills like knowing a second language – that can open a lot of doors.
I remember thinking that Nursing is a good safe career path for many. Then COVID hit and the nurses around here have been so overworked and under appreciated by their employers over the past 5 years, that they are leaving the field with PTSD. Even if the demand is there, if you can’t be healthy making a living at it, then it is not a good option.
Nursing is an excellent example of the phenomenon. When an industry says “we need more nurses” the subtext is “we would rather pay nurses less”. Companies don’t want to employ more people. They want to pay fewer people less.
I worked for two different car dealers that were convinced that the more techs they had, the more money they would make.
My wife graduated (the second time*) into the 2008 recession as a biomedical engineer. Not a great time at all to get a job but she did. However, it required us to pick up and move to Alabama. Never thought we would be living in hot and steamy Alabama but that is what we did because that is what was required if she wanted a job in her field. Thought we would be there 2 years – ended up spending 7 years. It wasn’t all bad – we never adapted to the heat but on the plus side there was no winter.
Her first degree was the “follow your heart and you will never work a day in your life degree”. Turns out you would never work a day in your life because there were no jobs that required such a degree.
It is sad to see the recent turn against not only education but also basic science. We are just falling farther behind the world and feeling smug about it.
16yo. career advice;
Ask them to put serious thought into what they enjoy doing, feel they have a talent for, and do the research to find employment options that fit. The best way to further education is to have employment pay for it. Pick up as many skills as you can, and if you want to be self-employed, take an entry-level job with one you respect, and work your way up, so you will know it inside-out. Learn from others expensive successes, and mistakes, while getting income.
Just want to add, I’ve met many highly documented professionals that seemed to totally lack the ability to deviate from the way they were taught.
Creative, critical thinking is what separates us from AI. How you consume and utilize information is entirely your own responsibility. Keep the noggin kloggin!