I think the global pandemic sped up the inevitable reconsideration of the way our society is structured, and if you wanna buy me a beer, then one day maybe I’ll tell you all my thoughts on technofuedalism, China’s acceptance into the WTO, and Citizens United. The Morning Dump, which you are reading, is focused on car news, so I’m going to start today’s news roundup with a speech/post from Ford CEO Jim Farley that obliquely touches on a lot of the same topics.
With one big exception, companies are essentially non-partisan organizations, but the sense I’ve always gotten is that Ford tends to trend to the left of the Detroit automakers, which is to say: a politics that is something akin to Romney Republicanism. At the same time, the policies of Donald Trump are probably the least bad for Ford, and that creates a potential advantage for the blue oval brand.
The policies of the White House might be most bad for a company like Volkswagen, which is why it’s not a surprise that the company is pouring money into American EV startup Rivian. Things are also bad for Japanese automakers, which face massive tariffs that probably aren’t going away anytime soon.
This leaves companies like Nissan in trouble, which is perhaps why Nissan is reportedly asking its suppliers for a little relief.
Ford Wants To Support ‘The Essential Economy’
The focus on funneling every kid who could manage it into a four-year college made a sort of sense in the ’80s and ’90s, as the economy expanded into a software-based one that relied on a lot of Office Space-like coding and project management. It was also logical under more open immigration policies designed to encourage labor expansion that resurfaced under Ronald Reagan and continued until the first Trump Administration.
This country has long relied on cheap, imported labor for some percentage of its less glamorous work. With NAFTA, China’s acceptance into the World Trade Organization, and even the USMCA, a lot of this labor didn’t even have to be imported, as a lot of manufacturing was shipped abroad. This had all sorts of outcomes, some of which were positive (cheap goods, relative global peace), and many of which were negative (the hollowing out of American labor, the destruction of Rust Belt communities).
In both a LinkedIn post and a speech at the Aspen Ideas Festival, above, Ford’s Jim Farley explains why blue-collar jobs are the “essential economy” that is the backbone of our society, and how we’re mostly failing to uphold it. Specifically, he points out that the country is short 600,000 manufacturing workers and 400,000 auto mechanics. This is a big deal! We are, as a country, very much in need of people to fill these kinds of jobs.
As Farley points out:
Lately, the attention of Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and Washington has centered on exciting breakthroughs in A.I., quantum computing, and robotics. These innovations have brought huge opportunities to white-collar workers. But what about the 95 million workers who rarely sit behind a desk – those in essential industries like construction, service and maintenance, agriculture, energy, and skilled trades, who go to work largely in trucks and vans every day? I think, amid all that excitement, we’ve lost sight of the backbone of our economy: the Essential Economy.
These important people support 3 million businesses and critical industrial sectors across the country, generating $12 trillion of our GDP. They service our homes, repair our vehicles, and respond to emergencies. The Essential Economy transports our raw materials from mines and delivers our goods to stores – and even our doorsteps. It protects and sustains our communities. In short, it’s the jobs on which we rely every day that won’t be replaced by A.I. or automation – at least not anytime soon. Even more importantly, the Essential Economy continues to be the engine of the American Dream, turning hard work into upward mobility.
Consider that, since 2017, productivity in the white-collar economy has risen 28%, in part thanks to leaps in technology that deliver greater efficiency. But, according to new research by The Aspen Institute, those who are out on our roads and working with their hands have actually experienced a negative trend in productivity for a decade. Productivity is the key to unlocking profits for businesses and shareholders, lowering the cost of goods and services for consumers, and growing our GDP – so a problem for the Essential Economy is a problem for us all.
Taken at face value, all of this is extremely true, and Farley’s advice for what to do next is also quite logical:
- Make permitting easier and faster, reduce red tape.
- Spend more on vocational training/create trade schools focused on future jobs.
- Create a sort of “AmeriCorps for the Essential Economy.”
Specifically, Farley takes on the idea that AI is going to replace a lot of white collar jobs that require four years of expensive college:
“Artificial Intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S. You know what job is [not going to be replaced]? Well, I mean putting up that power line, building that factory, laying a new water system,” said Farley in his speech.
This isn’t just important for our workforce, said Farley, it’s also important for defense.
“What, is Google going to make the tanks?” he joked when talking to biographer Walter Isaacson.
You know who this is also good for? Ford. Not to discount anything that Farley said, because I think it’s all generally true, and I have no doubt that he believes it (Ford has put its money where its mouth is), but the company’s hardcore shift into advertising that it’s the most American automaker comes at a time when it is greatly to its advantage to do so. As Farley himself mentioned in the speech, if the country reinvests in blue-collar work and trade schools, the people doing those jobs will probably be driving Ford trucks.
From a competition standpoint, GM has had fewer quality issues and utilized Mexican production to post better financial numbers for years. Now GM finds itself somewhat on its back foot, as it’s having to prove its American-ness with bigger investments in the United States, whereas Ford already has the largest UAW workforce and has less production to shift. While Ford probably wants all of the investment in electrification to continue, Ford’s limited exposure there means it can focus on highly profitable trucks if all of it goes away.
The unsaid thing here is that, with unemployment so low, it’s not clear who exactly will take these unfilled jobs in the interim. Historically, this is where immigration has been greatly to the advantage of the American economy. In the long term, we can start training people to become electricians and not work for Salesforce, or whatever, but with the Trump Administration trying to limit immigration, it’s not clear how many people who work in offices are going to suddenly want to go back to school to become a plumber.
Volkswagen Puts $1 Billion Into Rivian As The Company Loses Less Money
Rivian is a curious company. It makes great software and good trucks, but not in a way that’s made it anything close to profitable. The future of Rivian is a cheaper electric car, which requires a lot of capital. Volkswagen has capital, but what it lacks is the ability to make great software. This is how we ended up with Volkswagen becoming a major investor in Rivian. Earlier this year, VW put even more money into the company.
All of this money is contingent on reaching certain goals, and the latest $1 billion from VW to Rivian is not dependent on gaining access to technology, but merely being less of a financial disaster, as Manager Magazin reports:
Rivian’s overcoming the hurdle for the second billion-dollar injection from Wolfsburg, however, has nothing to do with the project’s technological progress. It was only necessary for the partner to achieve its financial profit targets. The company, founded in 2009, has been struggling with losses for years, but has now closed two consecutive quarters with a gross profit.
This opened the door for the payment from Wolfsburg. Ultimately, however, Rivian also posted a loss last quarter. At least the net loss was significantly reduced – from $1.445 billion to $541 million.
While Rivian isn’t a VW brand (yet), under a new tariff regime, it probably doesn’t hurt Volkswagen to have access to a local company.
‘Mr Japan’ Is Unfair To US Automakers, Says President Trump
Trump: “I’m going to send letters. That’s the end of the trade deal. I could send one to Japan. ‘Dear Mr. Japan, here’s the story — you’re going to pay a 25% tariff on your cars.'”
— The Bulwark (@thebulwark.com) June 29, 2025 at 11:17 AM
President Trump sat down with Fox News to talk about a wide range of topics, including tariffs, and the comment that stuck out to me was his insistence that Japan doesn’t allow cars to be sold there. Some of this may stem from his belief that Japanese regulators throw bowling balls at cars to disqualify them (which is not true). Japan has historically put up walls to foreign companies selling cars there, though the country actually has a 0% tariff on imported vehicles.
A big reason why America probably doesn’t sell a lot of cars in Japan? American car companies historically don’t design cars to Japanese tastes, whereas Japanese automakers are great at building cars Americans want [Ed Note: To be fair, the U.S. is a bigger market, so building a car specifically for it makes financial sense. -DT]. While Japanese car companies in this country do make similar models to those in that country, like the Toyota RAV4, there hasn’t historically been a huge amount of car exports from the US to them. Why not?
After WWII, it was greatly in the interest of the United States to build up Japan’s economy as both a hedge against future aggression/communism and to create another market for America. The fact that Japan has historically been great at designing consumer products has sometimes created freakouts here (see the Chicken Tax), but mostly America has viewed Japan as an important ally in Asia.
In this context, you can understand why Japanese negotiator Roysei Akazawa seems a bit flummoxed about what to do next, as Bloomberg reports:
Akazawa has repeatedly said that the US’s car tariffs are unacceptable, saying that Japan’s auto industry has made an enormous contribution to the US economy through the investment of more than $60 billion and the creation of 2.3 million local jobs.
Japan has insisted on keeping the sectoral tariffs on cars and other items included in the talks on the wider country-specific levies that are due to go up on July 9. Upon his return to Tokyo on Monday, Akazawa reiterated that stance while saying the deadline is a milestone in the talks.
“It’s a huge blow to us that the auto sector remains subject to the 25% tariff,” Akazawa said. “Taking this into account, we aim to continue vigorous discussions toward an overall agreement.
While I don’t see Japan suddenly importing a bunch of F-150s, perhaps American oil can help move the countries towards a deal.
Nissan Reportedly Asking For A Pause In Payments To Free Up Cash
Nissan is in a bad way, and it apparently needs a little cash to help dig itself out of the hole it created. How is it going to do that? Reportedly the answer is: squeeze suppliers!
Nissan has asked some suppliers in Britain and the European Union to accept delays in payment, according to the correspondence reviewed by Reuters and a person with knowledge of the matter.
The move would allow it to have more cash on hand at the close of the April-June first quarter and follows similar requests before the end of the last financial year in March, the emails showed.
It is not uncommon for companies to request payment extensions from suppliers to help free up cash. In a statement to Reuters, Nissan said it had incentivised some of its suppliers to collaborate under more flexible payment terms, at no cost to them, to support its free cash flow.
“They could choose to be paid immediately or opt for a later payment with interest,” Nissan said.
Nissan is good for it. Probably.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I love a good cover, and here’s Ted Leo covering both Kelly Clarkson’s “Since U Been Gone” and “Maps” by Yeah Yeah Yeahs! This is both a fun reimagining of these great songs and a reminder of the singing ability of both Clarkson and Karen Oh.
The Big Question
What career advice would you give to a 16-year-old kid today?
Top Image: Ford; depositphotos.com
HVAC. The future is more and more HVAC and HVAC always breaks.
Take a 2 yr BA in poly sci, find an elected pol and lamprey on to their organization. Make yourself as useful and available as possible. Rinse and repeat while climbing the ladder to state or federal level. Never go to the elected pol level, always stay back room. Job for life, no AI. /s kinda
Dental. Either a dentist or hygienist. Pretty soon, fluoride will be illegal and it pretty hard to farm out dental work to AI. Plus, in the dental arena, your patients don’t die from tooth decay, but they don’t ever really get better, so you have repeat business.
Ever wonder why you never see older dental hygienists? The repetitive stress injuries like carpal tunnel and rotator cuff are career-ending. It’s a good job when you start, but there isn’t any career advancement. My dentist friends are having trouble hiring hygienists, and the student loan payments are brutal.
I always thought it was so they could encourage people to come to the dentist 🙂 I did note that my last hygienist used a high speed drill type apparatus instead of a pick to remove tartar during my last cleaning; she indicated that it was to prevent carpal tunnel.
I have a deeply cynical view of things in this country. Every single new “innovation” or change in employment law and/or methods are done for one reason only. To hire as few people as possible and pay them as little as possible. Tech doesn’t create anything new outside of ways to not pay people for doing the same old shit they’ve always done. I suspect these sorts of things are happening globally but at least people overseas still have stronger employment rights. So my suggestion right now is if that kind of thing scares you and you don’t see that trend changing then I would move overseas if at all possible.
An excess of labor in white collar jobs will, in time, reduce the wages in all remaining jobs.
The shift in labor value to blue collar will mean more available workers for the same number of jobs. Greater labor competition will drive down wages.
The future one where we get paid less and less for jobs that require only physical dexterity.
I’m reading Farley say that half of the white-collar work force will be out of a job but the blue-collar folks building cars will be just fine. Who exactly will be buying those cars that the blue-collar folks are building?
And they need fewer people to do that work with every new plant or process they create.
The economy still has to absorb all those people regardless of their career choices.
Mass underemployment will be the result.
Well if they aren’t designing cars to be assembled by robots, or they aren’t selling to people like unreliable expensive handmade luxury goods and cross shop at the Rolls Royce dealership, then they are screwed.
If they sell self driving cars at least the robots will be buying them.
Yeah I’m sure that all sounds nice where he’s sitting.
I can’t think of a time in history where a tiny group of high-paid desk-jockeys and a sea of underpaid physical laborers fostered anything but misery.
Yeah some trades have the potential to pay very well. But let’s be honest, for every licensed tradesman rolling in dough, there’s an entire team of minimum wage workers with no health insurance under them.
Eliminating 50% of white collar jobs means eliminating roughly half of the middle class. They’ll flood to blue collar gigs, which will pay considerably less. That’s about the time Ford and every company like will do a 180 and start killing and shipping off those jobs.
My advice to a 16 year old now? Study abroad and never come back.
“Artificial Intelligence is going to replace literally half of all white-collar workers in the U.S.”
Hopefully your job as well Mr Farley.
That’s because those people in an office can be directly monitored and their performance quantitatively measured because there are far fewer variables. There’s a reason office workers have minimums and construction workers merely have deadlines. It’s because office work can be inflated to appear more productive by adding more steps, while in construction, plumbing, yardwork, etc. adding more steps costs you more money. The workers themselves haven’t been properly compensated for their increased (both artificial and real) efficiency either, as most of the money has been spent on structures or software designed to create even more (artificial or real) efficiency instead. The gap in productivity versus pay is, according to different sources such as the Bureau Of Labour Statistics, Reuters, and the Economic Policy Institute, anywhere between a 50-55% divergence since 1970, where productivity has increased between 84-89% and pay has only increased between 30-34% in that same time frame.
So no, office workers aren’t cushion princes waiting through the day to clock out after playing… I dunno, what do normal people play? Clash Of Clans? For six hours. They’re getting squeezed just like the rest of us. It’s why people in that environment suffer from burnout at rates trailing just behind people in retail and food services.