As the calendar inches toward 2027, all eyes are on the Ford Fathom. A forthcoming compact unibody electric pickup truck priced at $29,945 with standard Apple CarPlay and Android Auto, it’s the blue oval’s big bet on a reasonably affordable EV for America. Just how big of a bet? You might want to be sitting down for this.
Ford’s already revealed that the Fathom will be built quite differently to existing models like the Maverick. It’ll employ large castings in its construction, come together as a series of modules, and feature substantial complexity reduction in its electrical system. Strong goals, but perhaps not as strong as how many Fathom trucks Ford is allegedly wanting to sell. According to the Wall Street Journal:
The automaker aims to sell more than 100,000 of the trucks in its first year of production, according to people familiar with the matter. The truck, called the Ford Fathom, starts around $30,000 and will go on sale next year. Ford is seeking mainstream sales not seen by its earlier, more expensive electric vehicles.
It sure sounds like Ford is gearing up for enormous production capacity, but if this report is accurate, 100,000 Fathom trucks sold in the first year is a lofty goal. For context, Porsche only sold 76,219 vehicles in America last year across all model lines. Beyond Tesla, no automaker’s sold 100,000 units of a single EV in America during any 12-month period. And the electric compact truck market is still a relative unknown at this point.
Precedent shows that this really could split two ways. Take the Maverick, for example. When Ford first unveiled this initially-$20,000-ish hybrid pickup truck, it simply couldn’t keep up with orders. Despite subsequent price hikes, the Maverick set its best-ever sales year last year with 155,051 examples finding their way into American driveways. It’s still just about sub-$30,000, still hybrid, and still a little truck that fulfils an underserved American niche.
On the other hand, half-ton electric pickup truck sales haven’t exactly taken off. While more than 200,000 reservations for the F-150 Lightning by the end of 2021 sounded promising, Ford only sold 100,059 over a four-year production run. That’s tough. Also, remember when Tesla announced it had received 250,000 reservations for the Cybertruck in the five days following its concept debut? Cox Automotive and Kelly Blue Book crunch EV registration data, and from their data, only around 66,465 Cybertrucks have been registered in America since deliveries started in late 2023.
Oh, and then there’s the general state of EV sales in America to consider. Over the past year or so, the federal government has slashed nationwide tax credits on electric vehicles to zero, and that’s had an overall effect on the market. Automakers have cut models, and new EV registrations dropped 20.5 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, according to Cox Automotive, with registrations through Q2 falling to 462,892 from 607,653 for the same period in 2025. Given the state of the overall landscape, targeting 100,000 sales per year for a $30,000 electric pickup truck is starting to look rather ambitious.
Of course, there’s one great unknown here, and that’s conditions in the Strait of Hormuz. I wish I was joking. Since the war in Iran began, the national average gasoline price in America has soared by a little more than 25 percent due largely to increased oil shipping risk rendering the Strait of Hormuz largely a no-go, cutting off roughly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil supply. Suddenly, a $20 top-up doesn’t give the sort of driving range a $20 top-up used to, and drivers are seeking other options. As the analysts at Recurrent report, average prices of affordable used EVs like the 2023 Chevrolet Bolt, 2023 Ford Mustang Mach-E, and 2023 Tesla Model 3 are up by thousands of dollars since January. We’re talking gains between 13 and 19.7 percent. If the conflict continues through 2027, when the Fathom is expected to go on sale, consumers may still be looking for cheap EVs.
A lot of this does hinge on what Ford’s actually able to deliver for the base price of $29,945. Range with the standard battery pack is still unknown, much of the standard feature set is largely unknown, and it’s yet to be seen where financing rates will fall. However, if gas prices stay high and Ford delivers an appealing base product, the Fathom could come close to—if not hit—its alleged sales mark. Let’s check back in once 12 months since the start of production have passed and see where the numbers fall.
Top graphic image: Ford
Why are they burdening this truck with a name that’s synonymous with ‘can’t’?
To be pedantic, the idiom is “can’t fathom” so fathom is a positive.
Fathom absolutely doesn’t mean “can’t”, bud. Quick goog search or dictionary reference before you post, next time, k?
I think the point is that you never hear someone say “I can fathom that” it’s always “can’t fathom”.
It’s more association than synonymous.
That is a deep thought.
Yes, I went there.
It’s synonymous with six feet, as six feet deep, or six feet underwater or underground.
I’m not sure six feet underwater or underground is really positive either.
I hope Ford learned their lesson from the Lightning and worked with dealers to prepare their service centers and ensure the reliability of the supply chain. Oh and not pull a bait and switch and only put the highest trim on the ground.
I owned a Lightning and have mixed feelings about Ford and my local dealer.
Yeah, my local Ford dealer seemed questionable about their experience with EVs and hybrids.
The picture of the two trucks driving side by side looks like the one truck is about to lean over into the other. I assume it’s all lens distortion or something, but I’m surprised they put that image out.
That lens distortion is a one-click fix in Lightroom, so I assume it was an editorial decision. A decision I disagree with, it looks terrible and non-photographers will think reality is broken.
Comparisons to the Lightning and Cybertruck don’t really work because they are both at least double the price of the Fathom, a lower price point should lead to increased sales.
With the number of Ford dealers, 100K isn’t as lofty as it sounds. What we need to look to is also Escape PHEV sales, Fusion sales, Focus sales, etc… all historically as they aren’t made anymore. These cars all sold in decent numbers. Now, they all live on inside one car—the Fathom. Remember, Ford was originally saying this isn’t a regular pickup more of a sedan or different silhouette.
I mean, if it has a a midgate (and I can get one at MSRP), I’ll be buying one, so then they’ll only have to sell 99,999.
You will not be able to purchase one of these at MSRP, ‘cos dealers gotta deal.
You’ll be able to eventually, and then at a discount. But why in God’s name would you want to be the first guinea pig on the block with a brand-new Ford model?
A brand where I would DEFINITELY want LOTS of other people to be the “early adopters” who can cool thier heels in the dealer’s waiting room while they work the bugs out.
I’ve been waiting for a very, very long time for a small, affordable, electric truck, so I’m pretty eager to get something like this. And maybe this is naive, but I’m not super concerned about bugs/issues kinks for a few reasons:
1) This isn’t Ford’s electric vehicle. They’ve been making both the Mach-e and the F-150 lightning for a while and have a decent understanding of how to build electric vehicles;
2) Most anything that goes catastrophically wrong will most likely (hopefully) happen while it’s still under warranty. If it spends some time in the shop, so be it. I ride my bike to work most days and then would use this for building projects that I have on the side on the weekends. It doesn’t have to be up and running 24/7;
3) Ford has been making a big push to improve reliability. While this is a brand new platform and product and there’s definitely going to be some issues, you would think/hope that some of that desire to improve reliability would have been baked into the whole process here. They really, really want this to succeed, as the platform undergirding it is supposed to be the basis for a bunch of other vehicles in the future. It would be a terrible look and put the entire platform’s future at jeopardy if the first vehicle they produce with it is plagued with issues from the beginning.
Not to say that that very thing won’t happen, but stil…
Good luck, you are likely going to need it. I wouldn’t buy a first-year brand new platform new car from *Toyota* these days, never mind Ford. Warranties are great and all, but unless you live next door to the dealership and they give out loaner cars, a warranty problem is still a pain in the ass, even if it doesn’t cost you out of pocket. Your TIME has value too. The best warranty is the one you never need in the first place.
Keeping in line with Ford Motor Companies philosophy of…
“building cheaply quickly and recalling everything soon after,”
I am readying the popcorn for this release.
Also, it has the wrong name. It should be called the Ford EXCRETER.
Ambitious to sell 100.000 of a completely new car on a new platform.. new mechanics, electronics, firmware, software.. all new and not properly tested with regular customers.. hope they left something in the budget for recalls and updates.
For the customers’ sake, I hope its not all new, just a Mach-e in a truck body.
Exactly, a proven drivetrain would be a wise decision.
Yeah $100k seems overly optimistic to me too. Meanwhile Slate is claiming they are expecting to ramp up to 150k per year. I do expect that Ford will outsell Slate, easily at least 2 to 1.
I do think they might sell 50k per year. I do expect a lot of fleets that currently use Mavericks will make the switch.
A bit off topic but only 66,465 Cybertrucks registered since 2023? Really? I see the damn things everywhere, I had one almost run me off the road driving over Ebbetts Pass in the Sierras last week, of all places. I’m starting to think Elon is remotely cyber-taxiing these things everywhere just to piss people off.
I think they are just so noticeable that seeing just a few stands out. You probably see way more CRVs (as an easy examply) sold in the same time frame but, unless you own one, you are unlikely to have them stand out in your mind. They blend in with everything else on the road. Many things can be said about the cybertruck but it sure doesn’t blend in with normal traffic.
66,465 to many. Every time I see one I am reminded that Elon Musk is a POS and that the vehicle totally resembles a garbage bin behind a restaurant with bigger wheels. Heres to hoping it outstrips the Edsel as the biggest flop ever.
They all look the same if not wrapped, so you are probably just seeing the same few over and over again.
Why is this not a Maverick EV? That model name already has a ton of brand equity. They didn’t call the F-150 Lightning a new model name.
My guess is because it’s a completely unique product. It’s going to be a similar thing to a Mav as they will both be 4 door, primarily passenger vehicle, small trucks; but it’s a fundamentally different way to get to that end result.
The Lightning is built as an F150 with a few slightly different body panels and a battery pack nestled in the existing, slightly modified, frame. It’s an F150, just with angry pixies instead of dino juice for propulsion.
Can I just say that I hope that little canopy over the back is hiding some rear buttressing? I am not a truck guy for the most part, but a little bit of de-upright-ing in the back can make me reconsider. It worked for the Chevrolet Avalanche and 1st generation Honda Ridgeline (hate how boxy the current generation is) and now the Silverado EV, but those were/are far too big for me to park comfortably. Something sized like this shaped like those I would drive.
It doesn’t
https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/XBX1x2/s1/ford-uev-platform-details.webp
Welp, not interested then.
Fuck boxy vehicles.
I could see 100k if fleet sales take off, I’ll hold off on judgment until after delivery starts.
Are you sure that 100k is the number of sales they project, or is the number of recalls?
Why not both!
Good point, that could just be the 1st 50 trucks or so.
I find it weird that “standard with Apple Carplay and Android Auto” is mentioned so prominently. Tesla and a couple of other names notwithstanding, isn’t that like saying “comes standard with a radio” these days?
I think it is an important marketing point. GM has made the choice to remove CarPlay / Auto from their EVs (and eventually their other vehicles too) so this is Ford countering that. Further, if you are looking at EV trucks in particular you have Rivian (isn’t included), Tesla (as you mentioned, isn’t included), Chevy/GM Silverado/Sierra/Hummer (isn’t included anymore), and (maybe?) Slate (which doesn’t even include a stereo). The only other potential EV pickup with CarPLay/Auto I’m aware of is the Telo MT1 but that may honestly never see the light of day in any reasonable numbers.
Hah fair enough, I’m not very familiar with this particular market segment it seems
It’s a shot across GM’s bow since they have committed to removing Android Auto and CarPlay in all their future vehicles.
The 2024 Mitsubishi Mirage, the lowest-priced sedan in the American market with its last year available new was 2024 had standard Apple CarPlay and Android Auto.
Just throwing that out there for you renters out there.
The kids today care more about that bullshit than they do the actual vehicle.
Honestly, as someone who lives in a big city, a car with built-in Google Maps and/or Waze (preferably both) is virtually an essential requirement for me and my wife on our daily driver cars. And it’s highly desired that this capability is delivered is via Android Auto so I don’t have to rely on any additional connected services beyond my own phone.
It’s just so much easier to jump in the car, allow the phone to connect (usually while I’m backing out of the driveway), push the microphone button and say “navigate to x street in y” rather than faff around with a phone mount or pulling out a dedicated GPS unit from the centre console – which needs to be removed and hidden every time you park so someone isn’t tempted to break in and steal it. It’s a few minutes saved every time I jump in the car to drive somewhere new or distant (which is often).
This is why on both of our cars, both of which pre-date smartphone mirroring, I’ve elected to install systems that integrate with the existing interface to bring Android Auto/Carplay functionality.
Why not just use your phone directly? I just don’t find it worth the bother much of the time, and I find both the AA and CarPlay interfaces mostly annoying. I prefer to navigate on my phone, then use the car’s interface for the things that are built into the car. I have had just a couple of cars that allowed using CarPlay and the car’s interface side-by-side, but I don’t want that much screen nonsense in a car to start with. I don’t need a screen bigger than my phone to navigate with, it’s already bigger than any of the stand-alone GPS’s I ever had, which were all perfectly adequate. And the only things I ever use from my phone in a car are Google Maps and occasionally iHeart Radio anyway.
I have rental cars with it all the time, and have owned a couple of cars with it too. Just not an essential feature for me. The phone by itself is more than good enough.
It’s the seamlessness of just being able to get in and go without messing about with an ugly aftermarket phone holder and crossing fingers that the car’s Bluetooth will automatically connect and start playing music this time (I swear every non-AA Bluetooth-equipped car I’ve driven connects and starts playing with about a 50% success rate).
I actually don’t care about how big the screen is, as long as it’s big enough to see where I’m going, and ideally the car has separate climate controls so the only thing I need to be using the screen for 90%+ of the time is Android Auto. The very best implementation of this was probably in our 2021 Mazda 3, which had proper seperate climate controls with a little LCD display for temperature plus a smallish infotainment display above that was perfect for AA, followed by my 2013 Crown (which commits the sin of putting climate controls on a separate touchscreen, but at least it’s not shared with the infotainment).
I use an unobtrusive little vent clip when I bother using a holder at all. Mostly chuck the thing in the center console cubbie and call it good. I almost never play music from my phone, the car has perfectly lovely music playing capacities built in, why not use them? My own cars can only use BT for phone calls anyway.
My ’17 GTI had a perfectly good implementation, but after using it a few times I just couldn’t be bothered anymore. Better to have the phone navigating and the screen doing the music. Swapping back and forth gets old fast, and that is how it works in 95% of the cars I have ever used CarPlay in. And even if you want to do music through CarPlay/AA, you end up into artificial limitations in how much you can browse your music. Which infuriates me.
But if this nonsense is what you care about in a car, you do you. I could not care less if it disappeared tomorrow, and the chances of my ever again buying a car new enough to even have a screen in it round to zero. There is nothing I need to do in a car that can’t be done with the two knobs, row of buttons, and 2-line monochrome display that my two 2011 BMWs have, plus my phone. I care about how cars DRIVE, first and foremost. And driving does not really require fiddling with a screen.
100k the first year seems extremely improbable but maybe not impossible. That’s a lot of faith in a new, model, platform, supply chain, factory. With everything going smoothly.
There is a good chance the real competition between slate and fathom will be fleet and small businesses sales. Small bev pickup and van are wanted by many trades and fleets. Increasing fuel costs could make the bean counters and operators go to bev sooner then later.
The higher roof option slate has recently announced should really help it. The 4 door after that. Still small 2 door will probably do decently especially for fleets / panel van. Ford has ford and 4 doors at launch. I could see the logic in 100k the first year of they were talking platform as a whole with a small van and or a cuv.
Their first year is also vague all they have really said is preorders start early 2027. If they launch as a MY 28 or 29 early like they did with the 2011 super duty giving them 4 or 5 extra months for the model year that might be enough to get them to 100k over 16 or 17 months.
I hope Ford isn’t just reading when they mentioned a van on the UEV platform. I want something with sliding doors, and the shortest one in the US right now is the Buzz at 195″!
Double points if they made something like an EV B-Max.
I could see a slate kit to have sliding rear doors. The trades and fleets have been pretty vocal about small van and truck $30k or under. Ford has to know they have th keep the fleets happy or bad things will happen to them. If ford doesn’t have what they want and others do they will loose the sales.
Not sure Ford is listening since they just cancelled their new small Maverick van.
I’m not surprised too little too late. Plus there seems be a new compact hybrid platform that might take over from c2.
In general I’ve noticed the more Farley and Ford say the more I dislike what they’re doing and think they don’t have a clue. Slate and many Chinese oems the opposite happens.
For instance they recently said no one will tow with the fathom? Those are some absolute terms for a vehicle who’s demo hasn’t been set. Slate just showed they have a bolt on trailer hitch that you can throw on in a few minutes. And can tow a uhaul trailer without issue. One company gets it and listens the other has contempt for everyone that would buy their vehicle.
Yeah, I think Slate is a smaller niche, but the people who but them are going to be pretty diehard where the Fathom seems to be kinda trying to be all things to all people and will just be another boring crossover but with a bed, unless they can pull out some of the clever lifestyle stuff they did with Bronco.
Meanwhile, Telo is starting a bit up-market from either, but with significantly more capability unless Ford surprises us. They do seem very responsive in the Discord and willing to listen to their potential customers as well, like Slate. I feel Ford is trying to pass off Fathom as semi independent and edgy, but I suspect the corporate mothership will end up holding it back. I’d love to be surprised and see 3 competent EV pickups emerge as people seem to gravitate to them over other vehicles for some reason.
I can see slate doing extremely well with fleets. Telo is building a mini super truck. They are giving it a tow rating of 8k lbs and it might even rate it higher. I think really by the time you spec the fathom up you are better off buying a Telo. It’s just a question of if the general pubic knows about slate and telo.
I think ford will likely sell a lot more of the other vehicles on uev then the fathom. Whatever the bronco is on uev should be a hit. It’s also amusing so many people seem to have facts about that that haven’t been released. I find the range very amusing. State of charge guy is a big ford guy and seems to hate the slate and thinks telo doesn’t exist. He is saying 220 mi range with a 51kwh battery that has been talked about by people close to the project . That is absolutely best case I think it’s likey at 200 mi or under for the base. And just like the maverick it’s going to increase in price rapidly.
Ford is obviously concerned about slate but doesn’t appear to be about anyone else. There is also now talk about not allowing phone mirroring after sort or saying it will have it. You think will all the bad will gm had and has they would have learned. It just makes me think that there is a lot of talk at ford and not much to back it up. Where slate and telo seem set on offering the best vehicle they can for the best price while trying to meet as many needs as possible.
100k sales the first year? I hope that’s not based on vibes alone. Although with gas seeming to climb higher daily right now and no prospects of more supply anytime soon, I’ll hedge a humble pie.
I’m wondering if they were saying capacity will be 100k a year and ‘people familiar with the matter’ didn’t understand capacity <> sales. Either way I can see it cannibalizing some Maverick sales, there’s probably a few hybrid 2wd buyers that would love to have gone all electric, and it’s probably already grabbed the attention of Slate buyers who can wait. But I’ll repeat what I posted on another channel, 40 years ago there were nearly a dozen small trucks for sale in the US.
Chevrolet S10 / GMC Sierra
Isuzu P’up
Dodge Ram 50 / Mitsubishi Might Max
Ford Ranger / Mazda B-series
Toyota SR5 Pickup
Nissan Frontier
Subaru Brat
VW Rabbit pickup(couple years out)
The Maverick proves the market didn’t go away, stupid legislation and greed just killed it for a time, I hope in 10 years we have Fathoms and Slates and Telos and R3Ts all running around in teals and purples and yellows and the world is a happier place again.
Now that I can get behind. A happy world and parking lots full of purple-and-teal little trucks (which, almost the same thing, right?).
Yes! I see the parking lots now filled with grey SUVs, and full disclosure we have one
tangent: had I known she was ok with it I’d have gotten a red Outlander but the wife said she wanted the next car to be silver or grey so it was easier to keep looking nice and I’m like ok, so we’re at Carmax getting an Outlander and they had red ones but they had grey ones so I pick the grey one cause I’ve been trained to remember what I think are important things to remember and then months later I’m lamenting we have a boring grey SUV and she’s like “you could have got a red one” and I’m like seriously???, I mean I said that in the car later when I got to work, but I digress.
More colorful cars are needed! At least with Slate you can pick a cheap wrap, but then wondering in 3 years if we’ll be seeing Slates in various states of wrap failure, like the peeling paint scourge of the 90s.
Wrap it any color you want!
(check with her first)
Lol, absolutely!
I have a white car and it was basically my last choice, but I cared more about the specific trim and options than paint color. Would have preferred polymetal grey (since ir can look blue, green, or purple depending on lighting) or soul red crystal, but alas I bought mine when it was unpopular and had limited options. But now own an appreciating asset, which is nice.
If I ever get stuck buying a ‘German rainbow’ car, my plan is to get a white one and then wrap the bottom half with a good color so it’s a nice two-tone. Have you considered that?
I’m going to eventually snag the TCR body kit for it, and I’ll either have to wrap or (most likely) paint it before it goes on. Fortunately both my base car and the TCR exist in Gran Turismo 7, so I’ve been playing around with different color combinations to see if there’s anything I like. I’ve got a white/black Pennzoil livery on the TCR right now that I really like, so I may just do the kit in gloss black. Having candy red wheels limits my options as to what will look good.
That Red Diamond paint on the Outlander is quite gorgeous.
It really is, I see them around town and even with all the chrome they look great.
Same here, my wife wanted gray so I went to another state to get a gray Cr-V Hybrid. A month later she’s like, “oh you did that? I would have been ok with white”
Yeah we had white the last 2 cars so she definitely didn’t want that and the lease we got her is the Honda Pacific Blue Metallic which she fell in love with so I should’ve taken that to mean I could get a color, but again, battered husband syndrome.
I wanted the deep blue and… same
Well, if they want to preserve Maverick volume and set it apart from the new Fathom, they can always get together a big team of supplier representatives, efficiency experts, production people, finance people, etc, and figure out a way to shave enough cost out of it to come out with a new stripped-down value priced trim level at close to the original launch price
Yeah I’m not sure how Chevy is keeping the Trax at $21k but the Maverick’s creeped up nearly $10k while adding production capacity, thought economies of scale would make it cheaper but apparently economies of fatter wallets do not agree.
The Trax is a global car, designed in Korea and manufactured in Korea and China. Just US sales on the VSS-F platform total 424K in 2025
Cars imported from Korea had a 0% tariff under our free trade agreement with them but that was changed to 15% in Nov 2025. Cars from Mexico have a 25% tariff on non-US content.
The Trax also has a tiny 1.2L 3 cylinder, very budget interior and weighs almost 700 lbs less than the Maverick.
Ah the tariff crap. I’m curious if we see car prices come down if that gets sorted out but I know the answer, nope! They’ll just introduce cheaper built cars with 2 cylinder engines and cardboard interiors at the current low prices. 🙁
Fuck no they won’t change anything, just funnel the difference into stock buybacks and executive bonuses.
The price of the Maverick increased because Ford COULD. The demand FAR exceeded expectations for it by many accounts, which means they underpriced it initially.
You don’t think price is merely a reflection of production cost, do you?
So possibly if another car make sold a hybrid truck under $25k Ford would bring it down, but more likely the bar is set at $28k+ so any new one would at least start there, ah capitalism.
There really is no reason to undercut the competition by any meaningful amount. A hundred bucks so you advertise yours is cheaper maybe.
And then get it a back in options. And of course these days, a nearly $2000 “destination charge” which is bullshit that should just much more honestly be included in the MSRP, since there is no way to NOT pay it. If you are going to charge that as a fixed, separate line item, then I should be able to schlep my ass to the factory gate and pick the thing up there and not pay it.
All of these “overhead” fees that aren’t actually paid out to a third party beyond the automaker and the dealer should be banned. It’s overhead, it should just be included in the price.
Not sure about your world but in mine gas is still $1 a gallon less than under Biden. The price seems good. But for those of us with gambling blood what is the over/under on recalls for the worlds most recalled vehicles building a brand new type of vehicle? 50%?
I hoping it’s under on recalls. I mean how bad can they mess up an EV powertrain right?
The correct question is how badly you can screw up software.
-Signed, a guy in software
Badly. Epically badly. And they will screw up the hardware too. As I keep saying, it doesn’t matter that an EV drivetrain only has six moving parts or whatnot, it still has the OTHER 10K parts that make up a modern car, and a billion lines of code besides.
-Guy in IT also
There was a fuel price spike in 2022 during post-covid production recovery when Russia attacked Ukraine. This year’s self-inflicted oil cost increase might end up being a long term problem.
Russia attacking Ukraine is a long term problem.
Not for the price of oil.
As I have said here before, there is no dial in the Oval Office labeled “price of oil”, and very few things a President can do to directly affect it one war or another. But one way that for DAMNED sure does is starting a war in the Middle East, especially with the country that can shut down the waterway that 25% of the world’s oil supply uses to get where it needs to go.
I don’t blame Biden for the 2022 price spike after Russia attacked Ukraine. (Jan 2022 $3.28 / May 2022 $4.62)
I do blame Trump for the 2026 price spike after he attacked Iran. (Jan 2026 $2.94 / May $4.48)
Not that I personally buy much gas but diesel prices affect the price of everything.
You are correct, but you’re also wasting your breath. Context is irrelevant for the True Believers.
Russia attacking Ukraine had a lot less to do with the oil price spike than demand for oil roaring back a whole bunch faster than the industry ever dreamed it would. It didn’t help matters, but it certainly wasn’t much of a contributor.
And nobody seems to credit either President for how CHEAP gas got when demand evaporated the years before when the world went into lockdown. not much over a buck a gallon, IIRC. It’s almost like the price of gas is primarily driven by demand for the stuff, and not what any given President does. Biden inherited a Hell of a mess, and IMHO he did a pretty damned good job of navigating it. But of course, he took the blame.
The cheapest gas got during COVID was $1.77 a gallon for the national average. That was the week of April 27 2020. The roaring back happened in 2021.
The 40% jump from Feb to May 2022 was Ukraine. Then people discovered that the world still had enough gas and the price fell throughout the summer
It got down to just over a buck a gallon here in God’s Waiting Room, FL. The national average is rather meaningless – like real estate, gas prices are *local*.
I don’t believe the rise from Ukraine was anywhere nearly as bad as the year before. My drive to Maine that summer was very expensive, but paid for by my employer.
Regardless, Biden had absolutely nothing to do with either (other than not parking a couple of divisions of infantry in Kiev for “joint operations” before the Russians got stupid), whereas Trump is 100% responsible for the current nonsense.
Isn’t this the same Ford that said they were going to do 150,000 Lightning sales per year?
But, given the current populist state of world affairs, I’m pretty sure you can just say whatever you want now with no repercussions.
Ford originally predicted and set up the assembly line for 50k per year and then when the got 200K+ pre-orders they upped the prediction. Which makes it even crazier that they are projecting 100k for this.
lmao even Ford is betting against American foreign policy now
From a company that probably won’t be able to build more than 25,000 that won’t be recalled
The big question for me is if Ford can stick with that base price long(er) and not be tempted to jack it up by thousands in subsequent model years.
I wish Ford luck, but even with gas prices being what they are, I’m not too optimistic about their optimistic sales projections.
There’s no need to jack prices up if they can sell in volume. Remember that the Trimflation that began in 2020 started with the chip shortage. Lower volume meant higher per-unit cost to break even.
Except for consumer price tolerance/expectation, those conditions aren’t around anymore.
Bear in mind that they learned their lesson from the Lightning: high sticker price means low sales.
Well they sure jacked up the price of the Maverick. Doesn’t seem to have hurt its sales.
Right, but Americans are idiots about money. Give them a low starting price and they’ll gladly make it more expensive.
Give them a larger starting cost, and they’ll shy away.
The Maverick starts cheap, and people can make it expensive. The Lightning started expensive.
Launch year (2022) the base Maverick was $19,995 (MSRP, not including destination charge of $1,595). This year’s base model starts at $27,145 (+$1,695 dest. fee). That’s a 36% increase over five model years.
No doubt a lot of that was caused by Ford trying to get a fair share of the dealer markup robbery, but you can’t really blame the buyer for that – most of us are grossly outmatched when going into battle against a stealership.
Maybe the announced 100,000 target isn’t a real target, but more of a tool to try to prevent all the ADM the dealers add to high demand vehicles – maybe it’s to tell the buying public they don’t need to over pay now because plenty more are coming, and also tell the dealers to knock it off with the markups or you’ll just lose yourself a sale.
I can hope, anyway.
I didn’t see any of the under $20k Mavericks ever
True. With destination fee included, they’d have started at $21,590. The $19,995 MSRP was a sales gimmick.
And reality is they built bare handfuls of the base model.
Ford flat out underestimated demand for the Maverick and underpriced it initially.
(You’re also forgetting the tarrifs in your price inflation!)
If it spiked between model year 2025 and 2026 that might explain it all, but it’s been steadily increasing every year.
US Inflation totals 22.5% from when Ford announced that $19,995 price.
This is a great point. But that still doesn’t account for the other 13.5% of the increase.
If we adjust the 2021 price (MSRP + destination) for that 22.5% inflation the 2026 model is 9% more expensive. So the real inflation adjusted increase is not up by more than 1/3.
I suspect that 9% is a combination of extra profit that dealer markups showed were possible in the early increases and tariffs in the latter
Ford actually did a more than $2,000 mid-year increase back in 2025 in response to tariffs.
Ford underestimated demand for the Maverick and underpriced it initially by rather a lot. Then add in the tariffs and inflation in general.
Inflation under Biden 9% now under Trump 4% if Democrats weren’t trying to make everything over priced we would have $3:a gallon gas
For some reason I believe I remember a global event that caused that spike in inflation. In fact US inflation was lower in 2022 than in the UK and EU.
Gas is expensive today because Trump decided to attack Iran.
In the nebulous ether of the interwebs, I appreciate your factual responses that consider the nuances affecting the conditions at the time when an apple is compared to an orange.
Thank You.
Really, I thank you for the needed context.
I think that and dealers are the biggest problem for ford vs other brands. People don’t want to deal with their dealers or their price increases every year. If the fleet buyer walk it’s going to be scary time for them. They have before and I think they are prepared to again.
We saw how quickly price creep hit the Maverick. We also saw the dealers gleefully add whatever they could to the price via accessories or plain old mark up. I don’t see this being any different, but I like the concept as presented. 100,000 though? Woof!
They may need to do this, or at least get close, to sufficiently amortize the investments at the target price.
I don’t think this is Lightning v.2… so long as they don’t bait and switch the price. The Lightning with a bed shorter than the short ranger box, and other compromises in the 1/2 ton made it too niche and the price leaps destroyed any last hopes. The Fathom doesn’t have to meet baked in 1/2 ton expectations so as long as they don’t screw up the pricing in the process, I think they’ll sell a lot of them. 100k? Well…
Phwew, man… I’m an EV owner-operator, an EV early adopter, and I even daresay an EV optimist… but there’s optimism, and then there’s delusion. 100,000 units in a single year is nuts, even if it’s a great truck (and it might be!) and even if gas prices shooter higher (and they almost certainly will!).
100,000 for any single vehicle is crazy. Heck, they merely sold ~155,000 Mavericks last year, and that’s a truck with a pre-existing owner base and none of the range-anxiety and… let’s call it “cultural baggage” that comes with electric vehicles in general, never mind electric pickups.
This feels like Ford setting themselves up for failure so that they can point to the Fathom and say it underperformed, and that’s why it’s the last electric pickup they make for the foreseeable future.
I’d love to be wrong.
+1
I want to see the Fathom succeed, as well as the SLATE and all the other affordable new EVs and hopefully some affordable E-REVs as well; but… 100K? Especially the first year?
Plus when first comes to market in the trucklet format… if FORD also provides manufacturing dates and details on the other future vehicles built off the same platform (new Escape? sedan? minivan? 2 seat sports convertible Miata fighter? then the future product announcements will also put a dent in 1st year Fathom sales Anyone wanting a new low cost EV but not a trucklet may wait for a upcoming different body style,
Why over-promise if you’re going to under-deliver, unless the comment was meant more to shore up some stock or something, I don’t see the point.
Yeah the first year thing is crazy looking at Maverick sales even their first full year in the US they sold just under 75k.
2021: 13k
2022: 75k
2023: 94k
2024: 131k
2025: 155k
So by those numbers it really seems like it will be a tough sale for Ford to reach those numbers with what essentially seems to be an EV Maverick. As pointed out in the article only Tesla has ever sold 100k+ units in a year it is a really big ask for a single EV model to sell 100k units in a year especially its first year.
Ford didn’t have the production capacity to build 100K Mavericks in 2022 and they didn’t have batteries for them even if they had line capacity. They were expecting Ridgeline sales numbers and the hybrid to be 40% of sales but the initial orders were 70% hybrid.
When they got the battery situation sorted they added a 3rd shift in July 2023.
Pandemic years should have an asterisk on them under almost all scenarios. They are outliers and should (almost) never count. Still, 100k is wildly ambitious and wildly unlikely.
I’ll say that you are very, VERY wrong.
For one, if Ford wanted to point to the market failure of an EV truck and say “We Tried” with a shrug, they already have the F-150 Lightning.
Establishing a new R&D center, designing a brand-new platform architecture, investing in new-to-them manufacturing processes, that’s a massive and unnecessary CapEx expenditure to make if they’re intending to allow it to fail.
Also, do you *really* think that hybrids have any less “cultural baggage” among the Truck People than EV’s do?
On your last point, yes, I think so.
It’s amazing to see so many enthusiasts loving hybrids and saying “hybrid is the answer” when faced with a BEV alternative.
These are the same people who 20 years ago ridiculed hybrids.
“Cultural Baggage” changes and moves on with time. Nobody bats an eye at a hybrid today whereas in 2002 it meant you were a hippie or a virtue signalling Hollywood star.
You do have a point. That really is biggest bone of contention with the editors here. I know they love EREV’s and PHEV’s, but the automotive industry can’t be focused on “Now”. Cars take many years to design to design and produce, and new tech needs time to be accepted.
Even earlier this year, there was hope that we could avoid the worst affects of global warming if we kept to the 1.5°C target, but the UN just release a report saying we’re blowing past it by as much as 20%. This current El Niño is accelerating the weakening of the Atlantic currents that provide rain to Europe.
That’s a solid point! The money they’ve spent certainly counts for something, and I suspect they are at least giving this truck a solid chance — otherwise why design, engineer, and release it at all? I might suspect then that Ford’s engineers believe in this truck, and maybe even some in management believe in it.
It’s that specific goal of 100k that I just can’t wrap my head around the C-suite believing in. It’s just such a high goal, and such a specific one.
I just hope their bonuses are tied to it. Maybe they won’t tank it and take an interest in what the dealers are up to if it is.
Oh I’d love it if that were the case, but… well.
If management didn’t believe in this new platform it would not exist. This is a massive investment in EVs after their first investment in EV failed.
With the 2022 Maverick launch date I doubt they have many returning buyers YET.
True, though there is the segment of people who love a vehicle so much they buy another one for their spouse, kid, parent, understudy, apprentice, martial arts rival, or what have you. Or, any of the above who see how much their loved one likes a car and goes “yeah, why not.”
Might be enough people who wanted a cheap maverick saw the prices balloon and how the dealers acted. Who now see the fathom and will go buy something else because burned bridges. Or maybe they buy it or look at it and finally buy a discounted maverick.
Lots of people lease and those are typically 3 years on a mass market vehicle.
Why? I wanted a Maverick in 2022 but they were sold out for a year so I bought something else. I don’t blame Ford for having a vehicle that was more popular than they expected.
The Maverick is still at the top of my list when we need a new car to replace my wife’s Acura. Basically between a Maverick, RAV4, or CRV hybrid.