Ford November Sales: EVs Up 43%, Hybrids Up 75%, ICE Down 6.5%

The EV demand question the media keeps talking about is likely be clearer in retrospect, leaving those of us following closely in the present to guess what’s actually happening. Add in the Inflation Reduction Act (i.e. incentives) and supply chain woes, and there’s a lot of noise in the data. Still, Ford has become the second-biggest seller of electric cars in the United States behind Tesla, and is seeing its hybrid sales catapult. The company’s gas-powered cars? Ehh… not so great last month.

This is, in some ways, a general reflection of the market. Typically sales pick up at the end of the year, and that’ll probably be the case this quarter, but some normalizing in the economy could make it rougher on automakers (and easier on buyers).

The Morning Dump then sails to Denmark where Danish dockworkers are ready to aid their Swedish brethren in the ongoing labor action against Tesla. And, finally, things ain’t looking great for GM’s Cruise.

ICE Sales Down, Maverick Sales Up 252% Year-Over-Year

Ford reports car sales monthly, whereas GM and Stellantis report quarterly, so figuring out how much credence to give to one month of sales is a little tricky, especially post-strike. Overall, Cox Automotive estimates an industry-wide sales increase in November of 6.5%, so Ford’s overall drop of 0.5% doesn’t look great.

A deeper dive into the numbers reveals something interesting, however, as both the company’s electric and hybrid vehicles saw big increases for the month. Specifically, Mach-E sales increased 21% and F-150 Lightning sales were up almost 114%. Those are big increases.

This is happening against a backdrop of Ford revising some of its EV plans as the company considers how many consumers want electric vehicles. Ford’s interim step is to increase hybrids, and that seems to be working well, with Ford hybrid electric vehicles increasing in sales by 75% year-over-year. The Maverick (sold as both hybrid and non-hybrid) was up about 39% month-over-month and a huge 252% year-over-year.

The company’s gas-powered cars were down 6.5% year-over-year.

Is there some strike-effect here? Possibly. As The Detroit News reports:

Numerous nameplates under the Ford brand were down in October, including the Bronco SUV, the Explorer SUV, the Expedition SUV, the Ranger pickup, the Transit and E-Transit cargo vans, the F-Series trucks and heavy trucks. The plants producing most of these vehicles had been on strike as a part of the UAW’s 41-day work stoppage that ended Oct. 25.

This is a small blip of data. Let’s look at some broader data.

The Economy Is Normalizing And Improving… It’s Improvalizing?

We are still in the post-pandemic times, so everyone’s trying to come back to something like normal. The pandemic period saw a sudden decrease in the availability of goods and a sudden increase in government transfer payments (i.e. stimulus aimed at giving money to individuals and households without any specific good or service rendered to the government).

Now, governments and central banks around the world are trying to slow the resulting inflation that occurred while also not tipping the world into a recession. So far, so good, at least in these United States.

I’m a big fan of the economic summaries from Cox Automotive which paint a larger economic picture and help tie that back into automotive sales. The car market does not exist in a vacuum and is both a driver (when car companies built fewer cars and prioritized higher margin vehicles this contributed to inflation) and a passenger (high interest rates are dampening sales and margins) in our economy.

So what’s the latest report say?

Economic growth for the third quarter was revised up in the latest estimate to the strongest in almost two years. Accelerating growth in consumer spending was a major driver of the growth, but the opposite is happening in the fourth quarter.

And:

The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), the key gauge of inflation that the Fed follows for adjusting interest rates, was unchanged in October and was lower than expected. Overall price inflation, according to the PCE, fell to 3.0% in October compared with a year ago and from 3.4% in September, while the core inflation rate declined to 3.5% from 3.7% in September.

PCE measures of inflation are at the lowest year-over-year levels since the spring of 2021. Factoring in inflation, real spending increased 0.2% in October, decelerating from a downwardly revised 0.3% in September.

You are welcome to whatever interpretation of the data you like, but my general sense is that long-held fears of a recession are starting to wane, and slowing inflation has most consumers feeling guardedly better about the future, though not enough for everyone to suddenly start making big purchases.

Inventory levels are rising and, as previously discussed, there are signs that consumers might at least see interest rates leveling off a bit. Ultimately, buyers care more about their monthly payments than about interest rates, so increased incentives should help bring those payments down and make this a December to remember.

Elon Musk Is Learning Why You Don’t Mess With Swedish Unions

Sweden isn’t exactly the biggest car market in the world, but it’s an important one for electric vehicles as they currently command about 40% of new car sales. In theory, Tesla probably doesn’t want to abandon that market. At the same time, Tesla doesn’t seem to want to recognize a union in that country.

Reportedly, cleaners refuse to clean Tesla buildings, electricians refuse to work on service stations, and the post office won’t deliver mail to Tesla.

And now, according to Reuters, it’s spreading:

Denmark’s 3F labour union said on Tuesday it will support Swedish mechanics in their strike action against Tesla (TSLA.O), and will refuse to unload or transport cars made by the U.S. auto company for customers in Sweden.

“Like the companies, the trade union movement is global in the fight to protect workers,” 3F Chair Jan Villadsen said in a statement, adding that Sweden’s IF Metall union had asked 3F to help.

I’m glad to see these two countries burying the hatchet after the Kalmar War of 1611. At some point do you think Elon Musk would rather leave Sweden than recognize a union?

Rough Days Ahead For Cruise

I’ve already detailed all the problems with Cruise that led up to the CEO’s resignation, but it sounds like regulators aren’t done with Cruise yet.

From Bloomberg via Automotive News:

The California Public Utilities Commission said Cruise must show up at a hearing on Feb. 6 to show why the company shouldn’t be fined for “making misleading public comments regarding its interactions with the Commission.” Cruise could pay up to $100,000 per incident in which it failed to disclose information to regulators about the accident.

Obviously, GM/Cruise can pay the amount, but more importantly, the company needs to get out of the headlines to start to rebuild trust. That’s not going to happen until it can resolve all the existing issues.

The Big Question

Should I buy a Maverick? I should probably buy a Maverick, Which Maverick? Spec a Maverick for me. It seems universally beloved; has it lost any of its charm over the years in your eyes?