This may come as a surprise to many of you who have for years been reading about my many old cars (my youngest is 29 years old), but I want to buy a new car. Maybe not a brand new one, but one from the last decade. I’ll get into the reasoning behind why I no longer want to solely drive old junkers, but it really doesn’t matter because I’m stuck. Logical or not, I feel that if I buy the EV I want today, it may be obsolete in a few years, and if I buy an ICE today, it may be…obsolete in a few years. Here, allow me to explain.
Here are the two cars I’m debating purchasing:
- A 2023 Jeep Wrangler JL Sport 6spd (a vehicle I helped engineer)
- A 2015 BMW i3 (also an engineering masterpiece)
I’m considering purchasing one of these machines because the 405 here in LA is a monster that swallows small old cars, and my large-ish Jeep J10 is just too thirsty for the $5/gallon gas. Plus, I’m realizing that having a new-ish car can help socially. It’s really not about me having a commute and needing reliability, because my cars are actually quite reliable (especially the J10), it’s really more about me growing up a little bit.
To be honest, I really want to buy a BMW i3, because I want to practice what I preach, which is that people with commutes should drive EVs if they can, since the real joy of ICEs — the joy of driving (especially a stick shift) and listening to a nice exhaust note — is often lost during a boring commute, anyhow. Plus, as an engineer, I consider the BMW i3 to be a fascinating machine, with its carbon fiber body mounted to a frame, propelled by an EV powertrain with a battery that can be topped up by a motorcycle engine-derived motor that BMW calls a “range extender.” Here, you can learn more:
The problem is, a used i3 costs $15,000. This isn’t horrible, per se, but I’m not convinced that it won’t be worth less than $5,000 in five years — and that’s a lot more depreciation than I’d like to deal with. I say this because if, in five years, we can all get used Chevy Bolts that offer 250+ miles of range for $10 grand, then why would anyone pay anything near that for an i3 with only 75 miles of EV-only rage?
I realize I’m making a big assumption that we’ll be able to get high-ish-range EVs for cheap in five years, but it’s really not that big of a stretch. The Chevy Bolt only costs about $26,000, and after a $7,500 federal incentive, it can be purchased, in theory, for under $19,000. That’s dirt cheap, and the Bolt won’t be the only machine in the coming years to offer that kind of smoking hot deal.
Will the i3 be left in the dust? Will my $15,000 purchase seem foolish? It’s already starting to look foolish in the context of that Bolt deal I could get today (again, in theory).
That brings me to the Jeep Wrangler JL. ICEs aren’t going away for good anytime soon, and when I said “obsolete” in my first paragraph, I really didn’t mean technically obsolete. I just mean obsolete to those on the market for a new car. If I buy a JL today, especially here in California, will it depreciate like crazy in the next five years as more people have EV options, as EV infrastructure grows, as EV incentives ratchet up, and as fuel prices remain high (and possibly increase — again, who knows?).
Honestly, both of these purchases seem high risk if I care about depreciation. A Bolt less so, since it’s an EV and offers decent range.
It’s a tough time to buy a new car. At least, for me it is, though maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe depreciation is just part of owning a new-ish car, though as someone who’s never bought a car that has depreciated, I’d like to own something that, at least from a basic technological standpoint, won’t be outdated in a few years. Maybe the problem is that the two cars I’m considering are already outdated.
Surely I’m not the only one facing this dilemma?
[Writer’s Note: I think the solution to EV hesitation is that if you can charge at home or at work and would like an EV, buy an EV that you like for other reasons than its powertrain. Think of it like buying a performance car: The AMGs, M cars and Corvettes of ten years ago can’t keep up with their modern equivalents in a straight line, but they’re generally more tactile, lighter, and simpler. The BMW i3 is outdated as an EV but it’s a cool feat of engineering with innovative construction, a lovely interior, and a funky form factor. The Ford Mustang Mach-E will likely be outdated in a generation but its inclination towards oversteer is fun and its buyer might love its styling. The Tesla Model 3 will eventually be outdated but it has a huge aftermarket community, good packaging, and the Supercharger network is an incredible feat of infrastructure. Every car eventually becomes outdated, but the great ones give us something to love once the new car smell wears off. -Thomas Hundal]
The thing you need to keep in mind is that these ‘early’ish’ EVs were not built in huge numbers. When it comes time to repair them, finding parts may become difficult and/or expensive. You see this with low volume ICE vehicles that don’t have a lot of parts bin engineering. There isn’t much aftermarket EV parts support since the EV parts are sometimes unique in their design and materials. Aftermarket parts companies may decide that the investment to make or remanufacture the parts isn’t worth it considering how quickly the early’ish EVs are becoming obsolete’ish.
Didn’t read all the comments, but one thing that you can bet on:
In 5 years, not much will be different. Things happen way slower than you think they are going to. I’ve lived in California a long time, and this 2035 timeframe thing is just politics.
Your Wrangler isn’t going to depreciate. The fake 2035 ICE phase-out applies only to NEW cars. A Wrangler is going to be in high demand for a long time.
You answered your own question. Buy a new Bolt. It’s only 4k more than the used i3. The payments will be similar to the used vehicles you are looking at. This way you get a new car and it will get the range you want.
Just get a used Bolt… you are guaranteed to get a free new battery pack from GM/LG anyway. Try to get one with adaptive cruise for CA roads/traffic though…
i3’s aren’t bad… just comprimised.
Or get a new Bolt if the price/payments look ok to you.
If you’re concerned about depreciation on an EV, look for one that’s already closer to it’s depreciation curve. if you can handle the limited ragne for your commute, try a used Leaf! it will give you the ability to practice what you preach in commuting via electricity, won’t break the bank, and won’t depreciate so much over the next few years. granted, it’s already outdated, which may limit charging opportunities outside of home charging, but it’ll get the job done.
On the other hand, the JL will be a better long term car, and the resale will still be fine in a decade! it will also provide a good vehicle to base long term road trip, off-roading, and modification content, while still being reliable and easy for you to fix (especially that cooling system you have the design drawings of tattooed on the inside of your eyelids!).
When it comes to the cost/benefit analysis of EV commuting, i think it really depends on how much you’ll really be doing. if you’re going to be stuck in traffic for 2+ hours a day, 5+ days a week, then it absolutely makes sense. if you only commute a couple of days a week, and can adjust your timing to avoid peak rush hour idling, it’s less concerning environmentally and financially.
one of the reasons I’m looking at replacing my little Abarth with a JK Wrangler is because i work remotely now. i have less need for a smaller car that’s better for city and commuter driving. what i would love is the ability to have a vehicle that can get around better in inclement weather, as well as getting me out into nature where i can enjoy camping, hiking, mountain biking, and such.
The JK is probably a little overkill for such non-hardcore off-roading, but it’s also an opportunity to own a vehicle that’s also a manual transmission convertible. it ticks multiple boxes, and since it’ll get less than 5,000 of use per year, i worry less about the mileage and related environmental costs of owning such a vehicle
If considered reasonably, you answered the question yourself in the article – the Bolt. For an EV commute appliance it is very tough to beat. Plenty of range, good support, parts prices that won’t have a German Premium Automaker tax – what’s not to like? And besides, $15K for an eight year old specialty BMW, or $19K for a new Bolt? This should be obvious.
But, given that this is DT, I expect we’ll see photos of his new-to-him i3 in the coming weeks.
Wrangler, if you can swing it. There’s not going to be much depreciation, they are holding their value exceptionally well.
Heck, you might be able to sell it for more in 5 years if there is crazy inflation.
I know you don’t like auto transmissions but it might help with LA traffic and ease of resale too.
David, just get a Citroën ID/DS. It will still demand enough attention from you to generate some great wrenching content (I’d read the hell out of that) yet still somewhat reliable, at least compared to what you’ve dealt with. It’s weird, would be fun at meet ups or Cars and Coffee, but still is somewhat economical at 25 MPG easy. The best part is that it will be the magic carpet ride you need to get your spine back into alignment after a day of off-roading.
At a minimum, I know Jason would approve.
We may be headed towards an electric future but there will be people who are searching for a rust free holy grail 2 door soft top wrangler in 20 years with the same passion as DT after a zj. buy the jeep, keep it for as long as you want and treat it well, mod it tastefully or keep the old parts. Guaranteed that will deprecate way less than an i3 will once the battery has no range. If gas sucks that bad buy an electric motorcycle.
Friend, the i3 was left in the dust many years ago. If you like its quirky styling and extremely limited range, by all means go for it…but yes it’s going to depreciate like a stone.
I really don’t think you have to worry about depreciation for a Wrangler, even in CA. It’s such an iconic vehicle, they sell every new one they build (at an absurd markup) and there’s always enthusiasts that want used ones to mod/off-road. Those and the Tacoma are absolutely bulletproof in terms of depreciation, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon, even in the next five years. Upcoming EV adoption has been greatly exaggerated and the eventual phaseout of ICEs will take decades. The downside to the Wrangler is that if you want a brand new one, you’re looking at probably $33K+ including sales tax for even the most basic model, and the fuel costs will absolutely eat you alive in CA using this as a commuter.
I understand the appeal of something like the i3, but I do agree that $15K seems a bit steep considering how behind the curve it is compared to current EV offerings and it seems likely to only fall further. If you’re looking for a cheap EV commuter to “practice what you preach” I’d recommend a used Volt, Bolt or Nissan Leaf. You can probably get an older Volt or Leaf for $10K or less.
Also – glad to see you growing a bit, man! Don’t stop working on your old shitboxes, but having a reliable DD is the right move. Definitely makes things easier “socially” (I’m assuming you’re talking about the ladies) in terms of both first impressions and having reliable transportation. Depreciation sucks, but you also have to consider what your time’s worth. For example, how many hours did you spend fixing that junky Accord that was ostensibly your daily? How many things did you have to miss when it was down or while you were repairing it? There’s definitely a value to that.
Buy the Bolt, it is a respectable automotive appliance.
The i3 is an over engineered under thought out mistake.
The Jeep is a brand new security blanket.
Your money your choice though.
Here’s the thing — there is depreciation either way. The reason that i3 is within your price range is depreciation. And NOTHING will depreciate faster than an EV near the end of its battery lifecycle.
There is little to no risk for the Jeep. They hold their value like a miser holds on to money. There will always be a market for them because not everyone is going to be able to go electric right away due to cost, and people who want to go offroad probably would have range anxiety. The aftermarket is almost disturbingly strong.
Does it drink gas? Sure. But a minor accident doesn’t write it off because you need to order a carbon tub from Munich. Look at insurance rates for both cars just for the sake of it.
You’re looking for something you’ll be passionate about, something you’ll love. How many BMWs have you owned? Versus how many Jeeps?
I should add: is Beau going to hook you up? Will that be a factor in the decision making process?
I’d get the BMW. You’ve spent your entire career writing about Jeeps. To me experiencing the good and bad of another company would be a good thing.
I also applaud your decision to get something much newer and hopefully more reliable. And safer. While I loved driving my winter beaters and they never failed me moving to a lightly used Kia Soul 5 years ago was a very smart move on my part. Having a more modern vehicle is just more pleasant for day to day life. While it’ll always be fun to drive ratted out cars there is something nice about getting into something and knowing it’ll start, the heat and AC will work and the crumple zones aren’t your body if it all goes wrong.
Get the JL.
The i3 might be the more logical purchase in your situation, but as has been discussed repeatedly, cars are an emotional purchase. You have the opportunity to own something you helped build. I can’t imagine much more emotional investment in a vehicle than that (unless you hated working on it and don’t want a reminder of those times, but that doesn’t seem to be the case for you).
Why not buy the Bolt?
EASY choice. Get the cheap plug-in hybrid. You’ll get a 30% tax credit of up to $4,000 on a used one, as long as it’s under $25,000, bought from a dealership, and the battery capacity is high enough. Over the 5 years you expect to own it, you may even save more in fuel than it costs to buy.
If the battery goes to junk (which is very unlikely in that time frame) you might get a warranty replacement, one from a junked car, or by that time, prices for refurbishments or replacements will be lower. Maybe not low enough to keep the car, but you will have already saved a ton of money with it.
Or get a used Bolt, Volt, e-Mini, Clarity or other qualifying used plug-in. A new gasser is the absolute wrong choice at this point in time. Especially considering your Cali commute, gas prices, and the new EV tax credit for used vehicles.
First you should double-check last year’s taxes to make sure you would benefit from the credit, though.
So it’ll be based on 2022’s taxes?
No, but it could give you an idea whether you can take full advantage, assuming 2022 and 2023 are reasonably similar financial years for you. Which may not be a good assumption.
The law is written to give potential buyers certainty regarding whether they qualify or not. If you qualify in either year, you qualify. But yes, you do need to verify that your income is high enough to have a net tax liability to claim the credit against.
https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/used-clean-vehicle-credit
Sorry I wasn’t 100% clear about that in my earlier post.
I should have been clearer, as well, since I was mostly working off the assumption that the tax liability would be the issue. Most people I know who aren’t sure they can take the tax credit are unsure whether they have the tax liability for it. But it is a good point that a lower prior year income could let a person qualify if they otherwise would not.
As a really rough estimate, if your income is above 55k, below 150k, and you don’t have a bunch of deductions/credits already, you can probably take the full $7500 on a new EV. Used EV under 25k, you could take full advantage with a lower income, but the exact threshold depends on the price. 35k/yr pays around 2500 in federal taxes, while 45k pays about 4700.
The way the law is written, it’s based on either 2022 or 2023 taxes. If either qualifies, you qualify.
I’ll always be angry at BMW for dropping the ball with the i3 (and to a lesser extent the i8). They were the kind of experiment that you know could have achieved greatness on a 2.0, but Not My Leadership syndrome and an unwillingness to commit to long term R&D in favor of easy cash cows killed them and set back BMW for years in the EV race where they are now playing catch-up.
Honestly, David, you are worried for nothing. In the next 5 years, charging infrastructure is not going to be built out to a point where range anxiety is no longer a thing. People without easy charging solutions at home/work will still want at least a PHEV, and the roundel on the i3, along with its endearing awkwardness, will keep those popular for years to come.
And since gasoline isn’t going away in the next 15-20 years, a Wrangler will be as desired in 5-10 years as it is today. If anything, an increase from <1% of cars on the road today being EV to 5%-10% being EV in the next 10 years will just reduce gas consumption and lower prices a bit. Have you already forgotten what happened in the pre-vaccine pandemic days? Everybody stayed home and the price of gas plummeted.
Go get the one whose siren's call is drawing you in the most, and damned be you worries about accelerated depreciation.
‘Have you already forgotten what happened in the pre-vaccine pandemic days? Everybody stayed home and the price of gas plummeted.’
Theres a BIG difference between a once in a lifetime out of the blue pandemic killing driving and a far more gradual decline in gas consumption from EV adoption. Gas supply will dwindle in step, keeping prices afloat. It HAS to else everyone will just say fuck it and stop buying EVs until they can’t anymore.
I’m in a similar boat too, although EVs are not on my radar (but maybe should be). My commute is 10 miles round trip and I only go into the office twice a week, so I don’t drive much in general. My daily driver Mazdaspeed 3 is reliable, but with 130K miles it’s getting long in the tooth and starting to need attention. It also gets pretty crummy fuel economy (I average 20 MPG and it requires 91 octane).
I like having a smaller and more economical car so I’ve been looking at buying a newer commuter car, something like my MS3 but with better fuel economy, but that puts me into having a car payment on something I rarely use, and financially it’d be smarter to just keep driving my MS3 into the ground.
On the other hand, I’ve wanted a truck or off roader of sort for a long time. I live right next to a huge desert playground with tons of off road trails, and I work for a company managing aftermarket truck shocks despite not owning a truck of my own. So I could replace my daily driver with something like a newer Ford Ranger which actually gets the same MPGs as my Mazda and does everything I want a truck to do, but is it wise buying a truck as a daily driver knowing fuel costs are likely not going to decrease in the future? And again I’d have a car payment for something that sits in my driveway a lot, and may also feel bad about being the stereotypical American who buys a vehicle for edge cases rather than its real use the majority of the time.
The third option is to sell my MS3 and then buy two vehicles to replace it – a practical daily driver AND something I can beat off road. But in order to do that within my budget one or perhaps both vehicles would have to be older or higher mileage than I’d want, and then they’d become projects. I REALLY like having one reliable vehicle that I don’t have to mess around with much.
Can you take the roof off of the Bimmer to drive around with the southern CA sun on your face? No? I think you have your answer.
Do you want leatherface? Because that’s how you get leatherface.
David, I’ll keep it short.
You’ve been talking about a JL for years now. Just buy one!
Nothing new to add, but just wanting to point out that this article already has the uber-annoying Older/Newer comments split after being up less than an hour. Hopefully this is being fixed with the new comment system?
UPDATE: 3 pages in 2 hours
I’ll ask Matt about that! It seems that the site automatically applies the newer/older comments thing to try to keep loading times low.
It definitely gets tiring. I get it, I see the reason for it, but if it could be put on hold until notification of replies rolls out, that would be stupendous.
Or even if there were a mobile-only version of the site, and that version had the “Newer/Older” comments? I dunno, something
Buy the car you want to drive. To hell with depreciation. How often do you get rid of cars, anyhow? Whatever you drive, you’re going to drive it until it falls apart, and then repair it.
From that standpoint, the i3 is the clear winner, because repairing that will be an *adventure*.
That’s true! Maybe ending with my hair standing on its ends!
I’m reminded of David Freiburger at Hot Rod going out and buying a new Mustang GT when he was editor because he wanted something new…and I believe less than a year later he sold it and went back to beaters.
Maybe this is the time to buy one of those longbed Silverado ex-UHaul trucks!