Automotive suppliers in the United States make up about 4.8 million jobs and, according to those suppliers, this constant back-and-forth over tariffs isn’t helping an “already-fragile” industry. The good news for suppliers is that those tariffs are on hold, maybe. I don’t know.
The Morning Dump is yet again dipping into supply problems. When we started writing these news roundups a couple of years ago, the industry was facing shortages of workers and, worse, a shortage of the materials necessary to make a car. The root cause was the global pandemic. What’s the root cause now? A global trade war that may or may not be happening. It’s not all bad news on the trade front. Tesla needs good news right now and it seems like President Trump is about to make cars cheaper… in India.
Toyota’s cars are extremely popular and the company can’t make cars like the RAV4 fast enough, but a recent explosion and the tragic death of an employee of a supplier that provides springs for the Rav4 is shutting down production across Japan.
Fear Is The Mind Killer, Uncertainty Is The Job Killer
One of the best reports I’ve read yet about all of the will they/won’t they on tariffs comes from Jackie Charniga at the Detroit Free Press, and I suggest you read the whole thing because it would be inefficient and unethical for me to just copy and paste all of it. The lede is stellar, but let’s get to the root of it:
“The number of communications going out to automakers from suppliers is undoubtedly in the thousands,” he said.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Thursday that auto suppliers adhering to USMCA trade agreements could get a month’s respite from tariffs alongside their automaker counterparts — until Trump makes broader tariff decisions April 2.
Depending on their relationships, those communications from suppliers could either be pleadings for tariff relief or aggressive negotiation tactics to ensure automakers keep contract terms, Hearsch added.
“There are a lot of suppliers already at the edge of real financial distress,” he said. “They might ask automakers to pay ahead for parts orders; they can’t wait months for their partners to figure out how to deal with this.”
According to MEMA, which is the country’s vehicle suppliers association, the timing of this is pretty awful:
“The community of vehicle suppliers remains fragile from years of industry volatility, workforce shortages, supply chain disruption and the pandemic. Tariffs of this scale place a significant burden on U.S. manufacturers, increasing costs, reducing profitability, impacting American jobs and the industry’s ability to compete globally,” said Bill Long, President and CEO of MEMA, The Vehicle Suppliers Association.
Vehicle suppliers operate in all 50 states and are essential to the US economy, representing the largest sector of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. The tariffs have raised profound concerns across the sector placing additional pressure on the already-fragile supplier industry and its ability to operate absorb the costs, businesses, grow and invest.
A survey by MEMA showed that a six-month long trade war would cause 47% of companies to cut U.S. jobs and about a third to shift production outside the United States. This is a big issue for automakers, as supply chains take years to build and losing even one key part can shut down production for days, weeks, or even longer.
Tariffs Could Go Higher According To President Trump, Powell On Deck To Address Stagflation Concerns
First, the tariffs happened. And then they sort of un-happened. There’s a month-long pause in effect for most goods being shipped between Canada and the United States. Whether or not they’re coming back is roughly as vague as what Americans did or did not get out of all this hassle.
From Bloomberg, here’s what President Trump had to say about it:
President Donald Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go higher than a 25 percent rate imposed earlier this week, injecting further uncertainty into trade policies that have rattled markets and left businesses on edge.
Trump’s comments came in an interview that aired March 7, a day after he paused those tariffs until April 2 for Mexican and Canadian goods covered by the USMCA trade agreement he struck in his first term — a move that offered a brief reprieve for two major U.S. trading partners.
Asked in an interview with Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo if businesses would receive more clarity on his trade strategy, Trump responded “I think so, but, you know, the tariffs could go up as time goes by, and they may go up and, you know, I don’t know if it’s predictability.”
Trump imposed the duties on Canada and Mexico earlier this week — along with doubling a levy on China to 20 percent — moves he said he was taking to pressure those countries to do more to stop the flow of illicit drugs and undocumented migrants across U.S. borders.
If you’re thinking this might upset the market, it’ll be hard to discern the reaction between a bad jobs report and whatever Fed President Jerome Powell will say today.
India Might Get Cheaper Teslas
Tesla has had a bit of a rough quarter in some markets, though an end to subsidies sent sales spiking in Canada for a couple of days. The company is looking for new places to sell cars, and it sounds like CEO Elon Musk’s friend President Trump is willing to help him get India to reduce the country’s frankly ridiculous tariffs on imported cars.
Taxes on cars imported into India are as high as 110%, which Tesla chief Elon Musk has criticized as being among the steepest in the world. The EV giant last year shelved its plans to enter the world’s third-largest car market for a second time. It recently signed a lease deal to open its first showroom in Mumbai, registration papers show.
Musk has now found support from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly railed against India’s high taxes and in an address to Congress on Tuesday slammed the country’s auto tariffs of more than 100%, threatening reciprocal action.
“The U.S. ask is for India to bring tariffs down to zero or negligible in most sectors, except agriculture,” the first source said, adding the expectation on New Delhi eliminating auto tariffs was “clearer than any other.”
See, someone is getting cheaper cars! It’s not us, but this should help absorb some potential capacity from Tesla’s plants, which could help with job creation, especially in the nearby Shanghai production facility.
Toyota Cuts RAV4 Production After Supplier Explosion Kills One Worker
One of the reasons I didn’t end up buying a Toyota RAV4 is that the idea of paying well above MSRP for a vehicle I might have to wait weeks for was not appealing to me. Toyota has not been hamstrung by bad products, but by the inability to produce as many as the market wants.
A supplier that provides springs for the Toyota RAV4 and Harrier had a rare explosion, which killed a worker and has disrupted production. This could impact availability of vehicles here in the United States.
After assessing the latest incident, Toyota Motor Corp. said on the evening of March 7 that it will suspend operations on three lines at two plants in Japan for the first shift on Monday, March 10.
The automaker will halt one of two lines at its Takaoka assembly plant, which makes the RAV4 and Harrier. It will also halt two lines at a Toyota Industries Corp. factory that assembles the RAV4.
The stoppages could impact output of RAV4 crossovers headed Stateside. Last year, Toyota sold 475,193 RAV4s in the U.S., and imported about 101,683 of them, or 21 percent of the volume.
A shortage of cars means nothing next to the loss of a human life, but if you’re in the market it’s something to be aware of.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Did you know that “Have You Ever Seen The Rain” by Creedence Clearwater Revival is a deceptively hard karaoke song? I tried this one out the other day and it was not as in my range as I initially thought.
The Big Question
What car do you see on the road that always makes you smile? For me it’s the Isuzu Vehicross.
I like performance sedans. TLX, S6, 5 series, etc. all cool in my book.
Little 2nd and 3rd gen Ford Rangers, especially in the brighter blue colors, or actually most small trucks, S10, small Toyotas, little Isuzus, just punchy little guys going about their day doing little truck things.
Also punch buggies of any generation, the originals are really special, but then also the New Beetle and newer New Beetle, also come in fun colors.
I smile when I see a Sun Fusion (bright Yellow) Toyota FJ. Such a happy thing that would become a family member if I had room.
I live in the rusty Midwest, so I smile if I see anything well cared for that came out before 2000 or so. When I go home to the Southwest, I’m delighted by all the clean examples of old cars still out and about doing their thing.
I love to see and rarely do any more VW thing . Probably second are Karmann Ghia and any number of JDM imports or even some Japanese cars from the Mexican market we don’t get here.
I can’t see the industry sinking the billions and years in to reshore everything. Some things were already heading that way and that will continue until they can’t. The suppliers and automakers that can make it work will probably have a good few years. The others will try to survive. There are rumors stalantis will sell some brands and possibly factories to byd or geely. Ford sold off alot of brands in 08 to survive and this seems like an 08 situation for the automakers at the very least.
Tooling is crazy expensive. For most companies getting that fixed cost off the books will be the #1 priority.
The money people hate tooling and molds for sure. Not sure there is any model they will sell enough of to amortize the roi in this market. I think the bail out era of cars and trucks are coming back.
I think its pretty obvious for me 🙂
Two items:
1) Focus Electric because it means I’ve seen one of the other ≈10K people who bought one.
2) Any clean, older, mass-produced American car. For example, I saw an Oldsmobile Cutlass Ciera a few weeks ago. Absolutely remarkable to see that not only still running, but relatively rust free here in the ole Murder Mitten.
Most likely they’ve come from Grandma’s estate…Always fun to see those older basic cars in good condition running around. Hope they put new tires on them:)
“Ya but that Trucoat…”
I would not put it past the Orange C*nt and his cronies to be intentionally trying to bring about another 2008-style crash in order to get a bailout while simultaneously scooping everything up for cheap.
Remember, in 08 Wall Street and the banks got the bailouts while the poors lost their jobs and houses. They’ve already basically eliminated the CFPB, which was created in response to that.
Their goal is absolutely to privatize every single thing, so each of the 15 billionaires will have effectively unlimited wealth. What’s shocking is how they’re very open about this and millions are just completely fine with it.
For a different take, have a look at the following article. Either way, it isn’t pretty.
https://archive.ph/2025.03.08-171747/https://asiatimes.com/2025/03/trump-ideology-looking-a-lot-like-1960s-china/%23
Not only did the banks get bailouts, but the Fed set the funds rate to practically zero for ages, so they could borrow our money for free to build their coffers back up, while paying us nothing for our savings.
Came across this yesterday- https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2025/trumps-tariffs-canada-mexico-and-china-would-cost-typical-us-household, one chart that seemed to sum things up pretty well of how anyone below the 80% percentile will be a loser, and the only real winners will be the top 1%
Yeah, I saw that. It just blows my mind that anyone believes the Republicans are for the working class.
Once you’ve managed to demonize experts and professionals as “elites” you can pretty much get people to believe whatever you want.
What boggles me is the fact they look from suit to suit and decide “oh fuck, the guy who ran casinos is actually looking out for me!”
I’m shocked it’s even this low. An extra hundo a month is merciful as of late. But in the immortal words of Lord Vader: “I’m altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.”
My old Mercedes-Benz always makes me smile – whether I see it in the garage or on the street.
Oh – you meant other people’s cars?
Any convertible makes me smile and sometimes wave – especially when the top is down.
Anything with separate bumpers.
Pretty much any old car or truck makes me smile. I walk my dog through a neighborhood that has a nice selection of them (for RI), and I always enjoy seeing them out.
The newest old vehicle to show up in the neighborhood is a ’79 Chevy 1-ton crew cab dually. It’s got a nice patina but is still being used for work and is in good shape for a truck of this vintage in the northeast.
There’s also 2 or 3 SJ Waggoneers in the neighborhood, and those always make me smile. One of them is parked in the same driveway as a new Rivian R1S.
While walking my dog the other day I saw a beautiful 60 series LC tucked in a garage. Seemingly perfect paint but it looked like it was being used as storage as it was full of random boxes of stuff.
Oh man, I’d love to get my hands on something like that.
The 60 is my favorite Toyota body. Come to think of it, might be my favorite wagon design, full stop. Man. Now I need not one, but two. One for street driving and another body swapped on to an 80 frame for off roading. Too bad so few survived in great condition.
I always experience joy seeing rare, new or old vehicles of any type.
Terrible album cover.
Morgans
If you’re watching The Traitors, the finale has a real treat in store for you!
Miatas, of course. Any Alfa Romeo. I saw a Volvo 240 this morning and it got a well-deserved nod of approval. When wifey and I were in Italy last summer, I became unreasonably excited when I saw a Jimny for the first time. If I ever see a Samurai on the road again in the US, I’ll probably lose my shit.
I just went to the Suzuki Museum in Hamamatsu – the whole town is simply crawling with Suzukis, I even saw a ’90s Alto (kei car) with four young Suzuki engineers in it, all wearing full Suzuki garb including baseball caps.
I wore a Suzuki t-shirt in honor of my pilgrimage and the old man tending the lot at Suzuki Plaza walked over, smiled, and flashed me a Suzuki “S” hand sign. And then he bowed.
I had to look up “suzuki hand sign” and that is so cool! I had no idea.
I am gonna have to learn it!
The 77-ish Monte Carlo I’ve seen several times recently on way to work. Driven by a teen/20 something. Immaculate.
“Vehicle suppliers operate in all 50 states”
I’m really curious to know what vehicle suppliers set up shop in Hawaii – and probably also Alaska. They seem like poor choices, given the costs of shipping to places where auto plants are.
Well, some cars need mooseskin seats, and those come from Alaska.
And I’m pretty sure Polestar makes seats out of pineapple husks, and those probably come from Hawaii.
Alaska supplies oil. That’s a car part, right?
Suzuki Samurai and the VehiCross will always make me smile. The Murano Crosscabriolet will always make me weep.
On topic, I saw an incredibly nice mid-80s Audi GT Coupe yesterday while driving. I was literally jumping up and down in my seat.
I would’ve jumped as high as the moon. Top-10 car, all-time.
Red, BBS RS’s, even had the rocker panel decals!
@Matt, did david get the Dune reference?
“President Donald Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada could go higher than a 25 percent rate imposed earlier this week, injecting further uncertainty into trade policies that have rattled markets and left businesses on edge.”
Sure would be nice if he’d just SHUT THE FUCK UP for a few days to let the dust settle a bit. Not that it’ll ever happen.
It feels like a year but it’s only been 7 weeks. Only 201 more weeks to go assuming we have elections again.
Gilead will be the new name of our country
The t-shirts on Amazon?
doesn’t sound far fetched at this point
Sociopathic Narcissists thrive on chaos and the sound of their own voices.
Predictability is key for anything. When Chile instituted tariffs on cars based on engine size back in 1975, it was three years before they took effect and they were set up to taper off over a period of six years. That way manufacturers had time to adjust to the regulations.
France’s increase in the retirement age (from 62 to 64) is designed to be done over seven years, in incremental increases of three months every year. That way people and companies have time to adjust to the changes.
None of this is new or unexpected. Trump’s mission is to destroy this country and he’s doing pretty well so far.
https://www.bcn.cl/leychile/navegar?idNorma=6971&org=
https://www.fiapinternacional.org/en/france-reform-that-increases-the-retirement-age-from-62-to-64-years-was-approved/
You nailed it! All these changes would typically be implemented over time, years even, no today by 5pm! Several of my twenty something son’s friends have already lost their jobs to this nonsense. Computer Science jobs. One had just bought a house, good thing she has paying roommates. My son luckily moved to private sector year and half ago.
“All these changes would typically be implemented over time, years even, no today by 5pm”
That would be true in most cases, but this is the Orange felon who at age 80 can’t afford such time to witness his “accomplishments”
Chile in the mid-70’s will be an apt comparison to the US for years to come.
I assume most Trump voters thought Pinochet was a type of fancy wine.
Many of them like Pinochet (and Rhodesia, etc). Certain Trump followers know a fair amount of history; the problem is that they want to recreate all the worst parts.
Miatas, I’m biased because I’ve owned one for 10 years now. Any small sports car is great and you have to be in the know to end up with a miata.
I feel your bias. I smile whenever I see a nice NA or NB and I’m pretty used to impromptu conversations at stoplights when I’m driving my NA!
We just bought our 1st Miata, well cared for 92 NA6. Waiting for warmer weather. Also need to remove the previous owner’s ‘ricer’ exhaust. Sounds good running thru the gears, but the reverberating DRONE at cruising speed….
We taking bets on the steel and aluminum tariffs due next week? The ratio of steel consuming to steel producing jobs is 80 to 1 in the US. So we’re going to risk 80,000 jobs to maybe add 1,000? Steel producers currently have excess capacity so it’s not like it’s a we don’t have production needed for national security problem.
You understand there is no thought/planning in all this? Just shooting from the hip.
Not to mention nickel, 100% of which comes from Canada, and they’ve threatened to cut us off.
In recent memory – a Brabus Smart FourTwo, a random 1995-ish Buick LeSabre still going strong, Murano Cabriolet.
In general any car that isn’t known to have much of a collector market but someone still keeps one. I like seeing classic Vettes, muscle cars, even well done Tri-5s, but every now and then I’ll see some late 40’s Plymouth or something that I’ve never heard of, the whole existence of that model put in the dustbin of history, and it is great.