Affordability remains a big issue for many Americans, and no issue at all for a smaller subset of them. There’s an awkwardness to this, as the economy can be measured in certain ways that imply things are fine, but it doesn’t feel that way to most people.
What’s a good measure of this? In terms of mass affordability, something cheap like a Big Mac works. For more nuance, the price of a full-size truck might be better? The Morning Dump aims for accurate representations of economic trends, but failing that, will settle for fun comparisons.
Clearly, the President is also worried about affordability, and is headed to Michigan to make the point that things are fine. Will people believe him? GM CEO Mary Barra says that the company’s shift to EVs was also fine. Will people believe her? And, finally, Scout argued that it was a separate company and therefore could sell directly to customers in Colorado. Dealers said they couldn’t. Guess who the board believed?
Full-Size Truck Transaction Price Hits $66,386 In December
Am I hungry? I might be hungry, because for some reason when I read Kelly Blue Book’s latest report on Average Transaction Price (ATP) I thought immediately of hamburgers. And not just any hamburger. A Big Mac. There’s something about the Big Mac that feels like a good measure of pricing, in that its inputs are both essential agricultural goods and rent/labor. You can also get one almost anywhere.
Full-size trucks are also available everywhere, and they, too, have numerous expensive inputs. The difference between a hamburger and a full-sized truck is that most people who buy a truck could probably save a huge amount of money by buying something smaller or less-featured, whereas a Big Mac is an effective way to get a lot of calories at a low price (it’s neither the most efficient nor the healthiest, but it is calorie-laden).
In that way, a truck represents both a necessity for some (work, transportation) and also a somewhat premium good. No shock, then, that the industry ATP reached a new record high of $50,326 overall, given how strong truck sales were:
Strong sales of full-size pickup trucks also pushed the ATP higher last month. With more than 233,000 full-size pickups sold, December was the best month for the segment in five years and the sixth best in the past decade. The average price paid for a full-size pickup in December was $66,386, slightly below the record set in October 2025. In December, combined revenue from retail and fleet sales of full-size pickups surpassed $15 billion for the first time, according to Cox Automotive estimates.
“We typically see elevated prices in December, as the market delivers a strong mix of high-end and luxury vehicle sales,” said Cox Automotive Executive Analyst Erin Keating. “It’s important to remember, the Kelley Blue Book ATP is a reflection of what was sold in a given month, not what is available. Last month, nearly 20% of shoppers bought luxury, a peak for 2025 – and that doesn’t include the volume of high-end pickups that were snapped up by affluent shoppers.”
American consumers and businesses purchased $15 billion worth of trucks in December alone! That’s a wild stat. If you take the average price of a Big Mac in Texas from last year and divide it into $66,386, you get a little over 14,000 Big Macs. That’s a lot of burgers.
Trucks are profit centers for automakers, and they’ll continue to get nicer and more luxurious until people stop buying nicer and more luxurious trucks. It’s possible that the removal of some costs related to effifiency will go away (active grille shutters, for example) under the new environmental regime, though it’s likely those same costs will be eaten up by spending on fuel.
Until then, I expect both trucks and Big Macs to increase in price.
President Trump Travels To Michigan, A State Hit By Higher Prices And Job Cuts
Clearly aware that the economy remains a prime issue for many Americans, President Trump is traveling to Michigan to visit a Ford factory and attend the Detroit Economic Club to try to bolster his credentials. Will it work? The perennial swing state might be skeptical, according to a new poll of Michigan voters from The Detroit News:
The survey found that 48% of respondents said Trump’s economic policies have made the national economy overall weaker, while 38% said his policies have made the economy stronger. About 10% said his suite of tariffs, tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and more has had no impact.
Asked to grade Trump on his handling of the economy, twice as many respondents gave the president an “F” as gave him an “A.”
A 44% plurality of likely voters gave Trump a failing grade of a D or F, while 38% said he deserves an A or B grade, according to the poll results.
November is far away, and it does seem like some jobs will move from Canada and Mexico to the United States eventually. In the short term, however, uncertainty and supplier disruption have led to an increasing unemployment rate. If this sounds like a replay of 2023 and 2024, when the Biden Administration pointed to healthy employment while voters cried about costs, then you’re not wrong.
In Michigan, it’s the independent voters who tend to swing things, so this should be interesting.
GM’s Mary Barra ‘Would Have Made The Same Decision’ On EVs
General Motors is, at the moment, by far the most successful American electric car company other than Tesla. It was #2 in sales, its vehicles are largely competitive, and they are not huge money losers. That’s not a bad position to be in these days.
GM CEO Mary Barra spoke to a crowd at the Automotive Press Association annual event this week, and she said she doesn’t regret a lot of the company’s decisions.
“As I go back and look, everything that we knew at that point in time we would have made the same decision,” Barra said. “Once someone buys an EV, they’re 80% more likely to buy another EV. Some of our ICE vehicles are more fuel efficient than a hybrid.”
Barra has said that despite lower-than-expected consumer demand, GM’s electric vehicles remain the company’s North Star.
“Our destination is to get to the all-EV future we’ve been talking about,” she said. “Once we have a more robust charging infrastructure … we’re going to be pragmatic about it,” Barra said. “It will take longer, without the incentives.”
Which gas-powered cars are more efficient than which hybrids? I am curious! Maybe a diesel truck versus a hybrid truck? IDK, that’s a strange one. Other than that statement, I do think that Barra is pretty much on the money here. [Ed Note: I still think skipping hybrids was silly, but I respect GM’s EV efforts. -DT]. Will the EV transition be 100% and tomorrow? No. Will it be the majority of the market eventually? Yes. And GM is well-positioned in that regard at the moment.
Scout Can Sell Directly In Colorado
I, like all reasonable people, am excited about the prospect of the Scout brand. It’s offering a handsome, rugged, range-extended SUV and a similarly good-looking truck. Dealers have been a little less excited, pointing out that Volkswagen has agreements with its dealers that forbid it from selling cars directly to consumers.
This is especially important for VW dealers, who lack an interesting or exciting product to sell outside of, like, a Golf R. Dealers are suing in multiple states, and Colorado is the first to come out with a ruling, according to Automotive News:
Colorado’s Motor Vehicle Dealer Board voted 6-2on Dec. 16 to approve Scout’s application to become a dealer in the state, according to a spokesperson for the Colorado Department of Revenue’s Specialized Business Group, which includes the board.
The board has nine members, but the president of the board generally votes only if needed to break a tie, the spokesperson said.
The article points out that dealers can basically appeal at this point or allow Scout to see if it can operate without them. This ruling doesn’t impact a similar lawsuit in California, which is the biggest EV market in the country.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Fiona Apple is probably one of the most-selected artists here, and I’m just relistening to “When The Pawn…” as a way to start the day, letting the algo take over from there and pick more songs. “Get Gone” always hits me right in the chest.
The Big Question
What’s a more accurate (or amusing way) to talk about truck costs? It’s $66,386 divided by whatever.
Top graphic images: Ford; McDonalds; DepositPhotos.com
What about Burger King sodas? Did you know you can get a refill on any drink you want there, and it’s free?
It’s a wonderful restaurant!
Please tell your friends about this show.
It sure is!
Stop and think about this for a second: The type of vehicles the domestic car industry has thrown all of its attention to are now unaffordable to the very people they were hoping to sell to. They have nothing else to fall back on. And Ms. Barra likely understands her stalling of EV innovation and production at GM will put them even further behind in the future, relative to competitors.
I know the Big Mac name is well known, but I recommend the McDouble as the future hamburger standard measurement. The same protein amount, but way less fat and carbs. Better macro balance all-around, and cheaper.
I think Mary has done a damn good job at GM, more than you can say for Ford/Stellantis. By all accounts SuperCruise is fantastic, they have a decently large portfolio, and they’re not in the news for recalls half as often as Ford.
I see your McDouble and raise you a Double Cheeseburger, at 440 calories. Similar to the McDouble, but with less cheese, I believe.
It really hits the sweet spot for me, as a DQP is just too much and makes me feel sick.
Can’t stand the sauce on a Big Mac.
The McDouble only has one slice of “cheese”
The double-cheeseburger has two.
Yeah, I got my modifiers backwards. My bad. I knew what I wanted to say and screwed it up in execution.
This is why I take Gingko Biloba. It is good for my memory and something else.
Other way around – the Double Cheeseburger has two slices of cheese to the McDouble’s one – and you pay +$1 for that extra slice of cheese where I am. Total ripoff. As is the Big Mac – those are over $5 here. For an extra slice of bread, that icky sauce (I’m with you on that one), and some nasty shredded lettuce.
Here at least, if you want a good burger, get thee to Chili’s. $10.99 for a MASSIVELY better 1/4lb burger, fries, soda, and a soup or salad. It’s the same price as a large Big Mac meal here. Though for a cheap quick meal, the McDouble meal for $6 with 4 nuggets small fries and a small soda is OK value. And only $5 for the same with a McChicken instead. You can feel your arteries hardening while you eat any of them, but they are tasty.
“Other way around – the Double Cheeseburger has two slices of cheese to the McDouble’s one – and you pay +$1 for that extra slice of cheese where I am. Total ripoff”
Where I live, the McDouble is $4.19 and the Double Cheeseburger is $4.69, so it’s only a 50¢ difference.
But… they have a “Buy a double cheeseburger, get a second double cheeseburger for $1.00” deal, so if you’re hungry enough, it’s cheaper to get two double cheeseburgers (and skip the fries) than two McDoubles or even a McDouble & fries.
Too bad for me that the nearest Chili’s is over 100 miles away. 🙂
Much cheaper here for a McDouble. IIRC, $2.19 vs. $3.19 for the Double Cheeseburger. You can’t beat the McDouble or McChicken meal deals though. Heck, when I am super hungry and feeling like being super bad, I just get one of each and it’s the same price as a Big Mac Meal. And now I want one for dinner. Sigh.
IIRC, when I worked at McD’s <gulp> 40 years ago this spring, a Cheeseburger was $.49, and a Big Mac was $.99, as was a Quarter Pounder. I think a large Big Mac meal was $2.79. I don’t recall double cheeseburgers being a thing then, though I did work there when the McDLT debuted (most expensive at over $1 – maybe $1.29?). Silliness, that. I worked there my senior year of high school.
Sadly, the Chili’s near my place in Maine closed, but I have one right around the corner here. I live about 1/2 mile from a sad mall that is surrounded by various chains and a few local places.
Actually, I think they’re cheaper than what I wrote where I live, too. I just Googled it and that’s what it told me. I think it used UberEats for it’s source.
IIRC, the Double Cheeseburger was actually $3.79 and the second one was $1.00 the last time I ordered them.
I tried to look up the actual prices online, but McDonalds will not let you do that without a cell phone and the McDonalds app. I asked Google how to get the prices without a cell-phone and it told me to drive the 5+ miles to the restaurant.
Because 95% of my humor is Simpsons references, I thought of the beginning of this clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2GZsUZZ70A
I don’t know – the new trucks all seem to have plenty of fat and carbs. Perhaps the Big Mac is still the appropriate measure.
Plus, Americans love that sauce!
Guilty as charged. Big Mac Attacks are a real thing.
(Even though I learned the hard way that there’s something in the European spec Big Mac that makes me horribly ill. The weirdest damn food allergy–heck, the ONLY food allergy–I’ve ever had.)
I was in London in late 2024. I was amazed to see a Five Guys. American snack foods and sodas were everywhere.
A lot of neat cars I never get to see on this side of the pond, though!
Shit, that’s actually a great point. Carry on.
I would think your standard measurement would be pork chops!
Lately I have this weird internal tension in that you are right about GM and the stock market seems to agree… Yet I can’t find anything I would ever WANT from GM. The Corvette is now far too hardcore and automatic to have any fun with outside a race track. Blackwing is priced into the stratosphere. What do they have that’s commutable yet fun for under, I dunno, $60k?
Given what my contacts at GM are telling me about how toxic a place it’s become, and what time has thought us about what that does to a company’s performance in the long run, I’m not yet convinced.
The stock market also treated Stellantis pretty well, right up until someone caught a glimpse of the man behind the curtain.
“Yet I can’t find anything I would ever WANT from GM. The Corvette is now far too hardcore and automatic to have any fun with outside a race track. Blackwing is priced into the stratosphere. What do they have that’s commutable yet fun for under, I dunno, $60k?”
Take a Trax for a test-drive. Very commutable for the price.
Perhaps, but it doesn’t even come close to meeting the fun requirement. The form factor is something that would short list it for my wife’s next car, but we are finished with tiny turbo-DI engines.
I can’t see how it’s meh gas mileage would be any worse with a 2.2 Ecotec like the best part of the last Cavalier.
“Very commutable”? Is that supposed to be a compliment? Here???
There must be a Robert Frost poem out there about pining for a plain woman that I’m not familiar with.
His question was, “What do they have that’s commutable yet fun for under, I dunno, $60k?“
Fair point.
Full disclosure: my bar on commutability is pretty low. It’s 25 miles each way, 100% highway with almost no traffic or stops. My current commuter has a manual gearbox and gets 23 MPG on 93 octane with the AC on and matching the flow of traffic at 80+ MPH.
I largely agree with your assessment but am willing to abide this boring-yet-stable period from GM if it gives them the footing to make interesting things again.
I actually feel the same; the Corvette’s performance to price ratio is insane, but too much for my needs. With the Camaro dead, they don’t have a cheap performance car anymore. We had a Trax as a rental and it wasn’t bad at all! Like I could see someone driving and liking it, which is more than I can say for recent VW rentals I’ve had.
But for a basic DD, their lack of hybrids hurt. I always mention my wife’s ’25 Civic Hybrid because it’s just damn good at what it does, and the instant torque is a game changer for a commuter.
The visibility and the ugly always kept me away from the Camaro, but I do now feel like I slept on it.
Lately I’ve started to think that any cars I own that can’t have a third pedal need a high voltage electrical system. Power split hybrids have proven superior to valve bodies in the reliability department.
I like to price my vehicles by the pound, my Fiesta ST was about the same price as ground beef (5.5/lb not that tube of meat ground beef, I mean from the butcher), like ground beef it was a good value for versatility, flavor, and power. My Suburban was less than $0.50/lb which is cheaper than either rice or beans at my grocery store…. with a little creativity is the basis of numerous enjoyable meals. These days my tastes are more celebratory like a good pork chop and creamy pommes puree… this analogy might be getting a little off track, and I should probably watch what I eat.
how many calories are in a Suburban? And what’s the standard serving size?
I am not a qualified dietician, if its like rice I could eat a lot of it, if its like beans I should probably soak them before cooking…. wait a second I am getting off track again.
I’d love to see someone come up with a recipe book.
$66,386 ÷ how many idiots buy a truck that actually have NO use for it!
I bought my first truck back in November, a 2026 Silverado 1500 Custom. Paid 52k out the door. I wanted simple on the inside but with off-road capabilities. The custom I got is exactly that. The cabin is very comfortable but simple. Cloth seats, no leather anywhere, a small 7″ infotainment screen and an adaquate black and white display between the analog dials. It has the tow package, 4 wheel drive, and even a locker in the rear. It doesn’t have a proper 4 low but it does have a mode that similates crawling just without the torque benefits of a real low gear.
It’s a breath of fresh air from the almost fully loaded WL Trailhawk I got rid of. That thing had nearly every electronic goody and I used basically none of it. The only thing I miss are heated seats and steering wheel and LED headlights. I live in CA though so it’s not a huge deal with the cloth seats.
How the heck doesn’t that have a low range gearbox?! ***Goes to Chevy’s configurator. I’ll be damned.
I would have to guess that it is just one thing that people don’t use. Heck, my off-road areas have very little call for it.
I have no proof whatsoever for why it may not have it; conjecture only.
I feel confident it would be a $2499 upgrade, though.
Apparently, the Custom trim model doesn’t offer the 2-speed transfer case. You can either spec that with the Z71 package on the WT trim (requires the 5.3), or upgrade to a Trail Boss.
Go look at the base Bronco and add the rear locker option. You’ll get a pop-up informing you that you must add the Sasquatch package for $8,000 to get the rear locker. Makes the GM Supercruise look cheap.
It also adds a front locker and 35″ tires. A ton of equipment for what you are paying for. The old Black Diamond trim seemed to be the sweet spot when it was still around. Gave you a rear locker, but you still got to keep the steelies.
Yeah, but with everything else the Squatch pkg comes with, it’s a bargain. You could not build one yourself for 8K.
Exactly. I recently bought a GM truck without low range and haven’t missed it once. I owned two vehicles prior to this one that had low range, and outside of literally doing things for the explicit purpose of using low range, I never needed it. I don’t off road my truck so it’s a waste.
And to further piss off the 4×4 purists, I love the Auto mode. It’s great to be able to throw it in 4 Auto when roads are iffy but partially dry.
I will admit to doing a double-take when I read that base GM trucks had no low range, but once I thought about it I realized it was a complete non-issue for me. And the Z71 package is right there if you do need it.
My last 2 4x4s had it and I never really used it. I don’t do anything crazy anymore, my old 2000 XJ was the real wheeler. This truck is going to be pulling a trailer, going on trips to the snow and tackling some light 4×4 trails in the national forest.
Weird, right? Even the absolute base Ford and Rams come with low with all 4wds. Even if one doesn’t off-road, I could see low being useful at boat rams.
I didn’t off-road my 4Runner a ton, but every time I did, I was in 4Low most of the time.
4Low really helps keep transmission temps down while wheeling too! I genuinely wish my little Ford Maverick had a low range gearbox (as silly as that sounds).
Absolutely! It’s easier on the vehicle and offers better control. I follow a few youtubers who offroad crossovers, and it’s not uncommon for them to get trans warnings for high temp. I saw one with a Honda Ridgeline, they ended up towing him up a hill because the trans tapped out and the engine cut all power.
I was surprised at first too, but it’s not something I really ever used on my last 2 4x4s anyway. The Z71 has it if you really need it.
I bought the Ram version of this, the Warlock, in November. Same deal, it’s a relatively simple truck, but enough frills to still be an upgrade from my old 4Runner. The Ram has 4low and LED heads and fogs though. It was marked down to 51K, and I got a fantastic deal on my trade in.
Most of the complaints I’m seeing are from the higher end trims, mine lacks a lot of the electronics that seem to be problematic.
What motor did you get in the Chevy?
I think the custom is only the 2.7 turbo-4 (TurboMAX)
Nowhere in the universe is any Stellantis product superior to a 4Runner, unless the 4Runner is a rusting hulk in a junkyard, picked clean of all its good parts.
It drives nicer, is way quicker, and has more interior room than the 4Runner. I like it. I’m not going to keep it for the rest of my life, the 10yr/100k warranty should be good.
I meant a few of the tech items are upgrades, btw.
My local RAM dealer has Rebels for 15K off MSRP. Very tempting.
They’re really nice trucks, the Rebel’s are pretty loaded, interior-wise.
I really don’t think they’re any less reliable than any of the competition. They at least have an excellent trans going for them, everything I’ve read says the ZF 8spd is bulletproof.
I would drive one if you’re curious. But watch out – driving one sealed the deal for me.
The custom only comes with the Turbomax. It seems to be the only GM truck motor that isn’t eating itself right now anyways.
I like it. 310hp and 430lbs of torque. Drives real nice, very good acceleration and acceptable gas mileage. The turbo lets off a very nice whistle that I enjoy hearing while I drive. It’s a bit jarring to startup a full size truck and have it sound like an accord though!
I follow a few truck youtubers that speak highly of the turbomax. I hear you on the sound, I have a Hurricane in mine and it’s so quiet, it’s like starting my gf’s Elantra. I actually really like that about it though; it’s a serene driving experience. The things sure gets up and goes when I get in the throttle too. I don’t hear any turbo noise though.
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man an F-150 Raptor and he goes 15,000 days before he can have another fish.
Eh, he’ll just run down some fish in a moderately deep waterway and then pick them out of the tire treads.
Kid: Flattened trout again?!
Dad: For the last time, I told you it’ll be another 14,489 days before we can afford those McNuggets. Now if you’re not eating those fins with “Bridgestone” embossed on them, pass it here.
Now imagining if US currency was backed not by gold, not by the Federal Reserve, but by Big Macs. I’m not sure what would be more American than that.
I’m hoping nobody in this administration just read that.
honestly, I’d rather they focus their energies on this than their current priorities.
Considering their push to “invest” in a crypto “reserve”, they’re already pushing for worse ideas.
If Scout’s servicing gets done like Polestar’s then the VW dealers may be missing the point. Polestar has “spaces” where you can test drive and buy your car but all service and parts and even accessories have to be bought down the road at a Volvo dealership, and isn’t that where the real money is made? I’m just assuming Scout is going to have a similar setup with service being performed at VW dealerships.
I have been told a few times but have no direct evidence to support the assertion that most dealerships derive equal income from the 3 business: Sale, Service, Financing. I have heard similar things said by multiple dealership employees, including two friends that weren’t selling me a car. If that is the case VW would lose out on sales and finance, and they are missing something interesting to pull buyers into their showrooms.
The Big Question: Boxes of Girl Scout Cookies
Average price – $6 each
“KBB’s ATP for a full sized pick-up was $66,386, or 11,064.33 boxes of delcious Thin Mints”
Clever potential marketing partnership for Scout Motors.
Like a Girl Scout trim with a bright green color, a Boy Scout trim in a khaki, and then a Brownie for their smallest model in… brown? And then merit badges that go on the back similar to what Subaru does… I’d love it!
Special editions themed after the different cookie flavors would be fun.
I wonder if they could get away with doing an Eagle Scout or if Stellantis would raise a stink since they own the rights to Eagle in automotive contexts. Kind of ties in with a longstanding question I’ve had if any automaker other than Jeep could do a Wrangler clothing brand partnership.
I’m always curious when they show “Average Transaction Price” how it compares to the median transaction price especially on vehicles with such a large delta in pricing like full size trucks have (F-150 starts at $37.5K but goes all the way to nearly $120K for the Raptor R)
I would guess that the median is actually below the average because it only takes a few six figure trucks to drag the average away from the common transaction price that most people will pay.
I checked the source data from KBB and they don’t seem to make any distinction of what is counted in the full-size truck category. I suppose we can infer they’re including everything from a base F150 to a King Ranch F450, with the Lightning and Raptor somewhere in-between.
As you said, pickups are a segment with a large price delta and part of that is owed to the wide range of options. It’s also the source of a gripe mentioned around here a few times when automakers like Ford claim the F-Series is America’s best-selling vehicle.
While technically true, it’s disingenuous when the claim is always implied to be about the F-150 and not also its many siblings. It would be like if 80’s-era Ford claimed the best-selling vehicle status with a picture of the Fairmont because they lumped the sales data for everything on the Fox platform.
’80s Ford did actually lump the American and Euro Escorts together for a “best selling car in the world” claim.
A good point and I think about this in general when it comes to the ATP discussions especially now that it’s crested the $50k mark.
RAV4 and CR-V are the non-trucks in the top 5 US best-sellers and that segment as a whole usually maxes out ~$45k MSRP. That segment is probably close in unit volume to half-ton trucks, but made up of twice the number of nameplates so it’s a little more buried compared to >800k Ford F-Series sold alone.
That’s not to downplay the number of trucks sold or say that ATPs aren’t high, just that a lot of what the typical non-truck customer buys isn’t so close to the $50k mark, it’s more being pulled that way by higher models. Not sure if it’s been reported recently but would be interesting to see more segment-level ATPs.
$66,386 / ~2,000lbs (F150, typical crew cab) = $33.29 per lb.
Versus $19,190 / 972lbs (Nissan Versa MSRP/capacity) = $19.74 per lb.
Versus $2,000 / 1,400lbs (my used Frontier) = $1.18 per lb.
Though now I wanna see the price per pound curb weight compared to various cuts of beef.
So the F-150 can carry it’s worth in prime-grade steaks, your truck the meat byproduct swept off the floor at the Spam factory.
Other way round: the F-150 driver has enough money left over for pink slime. The Versa driver has enough money left over for round steak. I can afford the steak.
(I actually do pick up my beef 1/2 cow at a time with the Frontier.)
The only reason I’m ahead of you (Colorado = 1532 lb payload, $3000) at $1.95 is I probably overpaid for my truck. But I did use it to pick up some nice strip steaks as part of last week’s Costco haul…
It’s a good life.
a meal’s a meal.
My NB Miata was only $0.49/lb used.
Now THAT is a deal. Pound for pound, fun can’t get much cheaper.
I think it’s worth asking why that is, and this applies to the end of Biden’s term as well. The vibecession has continued apace, and whichever party can figure out how to remind Americans that they have more now than people at any point in history will reap great electoral rewards. I think there’s an attempt at this with the “Abundance” thing, but it’s way too wonky to ever translate.
The Internet (both commenters and most media outlets) have decided that affordability is an issue, but I have really struggled to figure out why outside of select sectors. Presumably, if everyone was really struggling there would be numbers that back that up. You can find some things that are rising faster than inflation (automobiles, critically, are not one of them), but so are wages.
To hazard a guess, I can only think that the Internet is amplifying the experiences of those who really are struggling while the people doing ok aren’t posting. This creates a sort of feedback loop where everyone just accepts that as reality. Sort of like how only really good or really bad experiences produce online reviews. To be sure, this is cold comfort to those that are struggling, but the general malaise is head-scratching.
Maybe it’s the phones? Constant bombardment with (sometimes real) lives of people that have much more than you causing dissatisfaction? I don’t know.
At least during the serious inflation times, a lot of it was found to be the conflicting attitudes of:
“I earned this 10% raise” (whether at existing place or by job hopping)
vs
“These greedy corporations are raising prices of everything 10%”
Not seeing the contradiction in those beliefs.
As for now, it just seems like people have a hard time digesting “new normal” prices, even though for the median person their wages have more than caught up. Serious inflation hadn’t really been a thing for decades, and most people hadn’t been exposed to it in their working life.
That, and it’s never been easier to see how well others live, through perfectly curated snapshots of themselves of course.
I’m no economist but I’ve been under the impression wages have not been keeping up with inflation for most people in most industries. Happy to be corrected if I’m wrong (and would be even more happy to hear ppl are doing better than I realized)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q
Median real wages are higher than 2022, 2019, 1999, 1980, or whatever reference point you want (the spike in 2020 is because low wage workers were laid off and distorted the stats).
As I take great pains to explain every time I link to this chart, median doesn’t mean everyone, it doesn’t mean there aren’t millions of people who aren’t keeping up, but it does mean a majority of workers have higher real wages than ever. The mood of the country is in many ways disconnected from reality.
You are correct. Look at a graph of wage growth compared to productivity, they’re fairly even up until 1980 or so, then wage growth nearly flatlines while productivity keeps climbing.
Hmmm, I wonder what happened in 1980?
The dismantling of a policing government began, as did the attack on the middle class.
Was going to elaborate a bit on my comment, but it timed out while editing. Here’s what I was going to add:
I believe you are correct. A raise of a few percent here and there does not make up for the fact that housing costs have nearly doubled in some cases over the past few years.
For those that were already doing well and were homeowners prior to 2020, it may be the case, but for anyone that’s not a homeowner, these are expensive times.
Also, for some historic context, look at a graph of wage growth compared to productivity, the lines are fairly even up until 1980 or so, then wage growth nearly flatlines while productivity keeps climbing.
F0r myself, I’m making more money than I ever have, but owning a home is much further from reach than it was 6 or 7 years ago. I certainly don’t FEEL like I’m doing better.
Ok, but how does that square with the FRED chart V10omous linked? (Which challenged/is challenging me which I appreciate).
If income really has gone up (factoring for inflation) yeah how is it that no one under the age of 30 will ever buy a home, or the average car price is close to the average worker’s annual salary and so on? Granted I wasn’t alive in the post-war years but the way it’s portrayed, you traded in a couple cans of old lima beans and got yourself a brand new house in the ‘burbs with a blinged out Buick in the driveway.
I mean pretty much. Both my grandfathers were blue collar guys that didn’t finish high school; both owned a home and had a stay-at-home wife and 3 kids. My grandmother on my mom’s side was great with a budget, they even had a new car every few years.
Right. I wonder what percentage of 2-parent American families with 3 kids could afford for one of them to stay home (in the house they OWN), and regularly buy new cars now vs then. (And i’m totally discounting the fact they didn’t have high school diplomas since today that number is 0).
The first salvo against the middle class was the Friedman Doctrine ten years earlier.
I hadn’t heard of that, but the Powell memo came out in 71 and was horrible.
I think a lot of it is about Covid trauma and its economic effects (leading to incumbent upsets around the world.) Building on that, the current admin has made it very clear that we can expect only chaos for the next 3+ years.
i thought we were gonna get burned out from all the winning.
That’s the thing about the K-Shaped economy. It does work for some people. Being that we’re on a car website, presumedly this population will trend in the direction of professional class that’s likely benefited decently. I’ll include myself in that population. However, because the economy isn’t growing outside of the theoretical numbers on the index price. That wealth has to come from somewhere, and we’ve been seeing an increasing wealth extraction from the lower part of the K to keep the upper part afloat. Because of the nature of extraction, that lower K is increasing pressure to your middle class. And this is were you see the affordability crisis. Those former quantifiers of middle class existence, primarily ownership of various stuff like houses is decreasing. In favor of increasing debt. Ultimately, affordability may not be the best word to describe it. We’re in a wealth gap crisis. What was once borderline expectational. You get a job at the wiget factory, you get the spouse, the house and two kids. Isn’t obtainable for larger and larger portion of America. And there seems to be no mechanism to resolve this. That general malaise is seemingly appropriate for an increasing number of us.
I mean, this is an example of what I’m talking about. I don’t grant the existence of the “K shaped economy”. Where are the numbers that support that assertion? The median real wage continues to go up.
How can an economy where the median (again, not the mean), wage be rising faster than inflation be one where half (implied by the “K” shape”) is going down (again, implied by the K shape)?
Homeownership percentage is higher now than it was in 1965 and in any case has barely budged over the years, fluctuating between 63 and 69 percent.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
I’m more sympathetic to the argument that wealth inequality exists because that’s verifiable, but the effects of that are not clear to me.
Do not give in to the malaise, you say yourself you’re doing fine.
I think a lot of this is related to housing, arguably the greatest expense, and the most brutal situation that mostly young people are dealing with.
If you’re 50 and last bought a house in 2002 or something like that, you’re probably happily sitting on a pile of equity that gives you plenty of options. If you’re 30 and trying to start a family, and are trying to find a reasonable home? Good fucking luck. A lot of the malaise comes from young people trying to figure out how to afford a home while dealing with other expenses. My cousin is looking to relocate right now, both he and his wife are RNs, they have two young kids. The market they are entering offers the choice of basically zero available rentals that fit a family of four, and the housing market is basically non-existent, they’ve already toured every single available home in their price range.
I’ve said this a number of times here, the price of basic cars isn’t so much the issue as is the remaining available budget for transportation after you’ve been beaten to death by the housing market.
Edit: I’ll add, this couple has VERY modest expectations for a house. It doesn’t need to be fresh or trendy. It doesn’t need to be big. It doesn’t even need to be in a particularly nice area. It just can’t have like, severe condition issues or be outrageously far from where they will be working (not that moving further out around here actually helps). We know countless other couples running into the same problems; my brother just went all in on a very modest house and the cost of the thing is absolutely killing him, despite both he and his wife having seemingly decent jobs. Granted, childcare is also a killer. And this isn’t even an expensive market lol.
Really this just stems from poor policy and no one building reasonably sized homes for the past couple of decades. Bullshit zoning laws, etc.
Exactly,
This big stage of life has been delayed for so many people my age. I hate renting, and unfortunately there is no way i can afford a house in my area on my own. Or anywhere within a 45 minute drive to work really.
Only 21% of home sales last year were to first time buyers. And the median age for first time buyers was 40. in 2021 it was 33. Couple this with higher mortgage rates, and no decrease in price from the covid boom and its bad news.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historic-low-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40
As much as many of us seem to live and die by inflation reports here, those reports aren’t capturing the disproportionate effect that the state of the real estate market is having on those who didn’t purchase before the pandemic. I live in what is considered a cheap market, but housing is up, no joke, 100%. A house that was 200k in 2019, is now 400k. I could not afford to buy the house I currently own if I had waited.
It also doesn’t help that a number of young people went into the tech sector for high salaries, only to see that workforce basically get slaughtered over the last year or so.
One worrying trend we experienced at work while shopping for a new company vehicle was that not only are prices on new trucks being jacked up, but dealers are jacking up used truck prices by literally jacking recent off-leases up with lift kits and wheels, and charging tens of thousands more than new. It’s kinda scummy to take perfectly fine used vehicles, and then raise them out of reach of people who are trying to be prudent shoppers.
Also short people.
“The key is to never let anyone see you get in it.” – Wally, in a very old Dilbert cartoon.
Also holy crap, I did not intend on that timing with that comment.
What were once base models are now a dealer’s blank canvas.
… and anyone who actually plans to work with it. It’d be nice to be able to reach into the truck bed from the side to get a shovel or something like that.
Why the Big Mac? Because of the Big Mac Index! https://www.foodandwine.com/big-mac-index-11727080
The Truck Industrial Complex rages on
If we go back to the first year Big Mac in 1967 at 45 cents and a pickup at 3 grand the ratio was 6666:1
Amazing how they’ve convinced so many of us that driving anything other than a giant truck turns you into a weak, wussy cuck.
All while putting stickers on there that advertise how we are indeed weak, wussy cucks.
That massive piece of flat glass behind the cab has become a canvas for all of the driver’s shittiest opinions.
Oh I’m sure most of them have far shittier opinions than what we tend to see. You still can’t get away with pulling up to Costco with racial slurs on your truck.
While the operators of said giant trucks scorn the weak, wussy cucks that enjoy cosplay…
I’m curious who the “they” is. As in, is this an “organic” sentiment from the worst corners of the internet or do you think OEM’s are sly/evil/competent enough to be seeding or encouraging these ideas while keeping their hands relatively clean?
We know the truth. Those wanna alpha males have overcompensation and sexual identity issues. They use the large truck to hide behind.
Deep alpha male-voiced narrator: You Know You Want A Truck!
Average transaction price is $66k yet they’re all over the place here in Arkansas where the median household income is under $50k per year. All of these people going into massive debt to fuel their egos. Then they spend half the transaction price on M/Ts for the highway and Moron Labia stickers.
Better that than adding another 10 units to their AR-15 collection, I guess.
Yeah but the can’t figure out that’s the reason they are broke and not because of immigrants taking all those fancy high-paying lettuce picking jobs. So this fuels anger which fuels settling for getting a used AR-15. Which fuels anger they couldn’t get a “nice” one, and so on . . .
I wonder if the writer from the Detroit Free Press also has a sense of automotive history and found this as funny as I did:
“Barra has said that despite lower-than-expected consumer demand, GM’s electric vehicles remain the company’s North Star.”
I got a laugh!
Lol, I also noticed that as well.
That does leave a big, oily spot of irony.
If you enjoy a little Pop Econ, the Big Mac Index is a semi-valid way of comparing purchasing power parity around the world. The Economist (magazine, not Friedman) coined it a couple decades ago and it makes for a nice conversation, especially for people who try to make direct currency translations between completely different countries and markets. (Edit: Once every couple days I’ll have a comment sit in approval limbo for several hours. Kind of confusing, I didn’t think there was anything controversial here 🙂 )
“The survey found that 48% of respondents said Trump’s economic policies have made the national economy overall weaker, while 38% said his policies have made the economy stronger. About 10% said his suite of tariffs, tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks and more has had no impact.”
Which is to say, only 48% of respondents know what they are talking about.
Devil’s advocacy here, but people with blinders on could point to a couple months of better than expected inflation and UE numbers and claim it’s Trump’s doing. Not hard work in spite of Trump.
Trump is like the iceberg from Titanic, but it hangs out for the first hour and says “See, it didn’t even sink yet!” and then goes on a world tour smashing into other boats.
You don’t even need to do that, the stock market literally set another record high yesterday.
That doesn’t make those people right, but it’s not as simple as calling them deluded either.
The economy is a mix of good and bad, as it mostly has been for the last several years. The vibes of course are much worse.
It is possible for the stock market to be doing incredibly well while most Americans are decidedly not. The bottom half of income earners rent, have no retirement investments to speak of, and receive nothing from the higher valuations of companies (that are the result of them becoming increasingly more “efficient” at transferring wealth away from these very people).
But yeah, it’s really confusing to live in a country where it’s never been better for some, and close to as bad as it’s ever been for others.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx
Nearly 2/3 of Americans own stocks, including more than 70% of people making $50-100,000.
People didn’t think the economy was this bad in 2010-11, which is objectively wild as someone (one of many) who was laid off and out of work for over a year in that period.
I appreciate having my belief challenged and corrected — thank you. I would have said “yeah but I bet a bunch are ppl who dropped $50 into robinhood” but the trend has stayed the same since the 90’s. I am curious on both the method and motivations of lower income earners to put money in the market. An 8% return means a whole lot more when you’ve got $1 million invested vs $1,000.
I expect most of the middle income people are mostly or only in 401ks.
So your overall point of them not necessarily feeling richer still has some truth to it. It’s difficult and costly to access that money. You can’t pay rent with it. But it is real money, and it is weird that so many are still so down on the economy in spite of it.
Yeah it’s the lower income that I’m more curious about. I know ppl of any income level can have a retirement account, however it’s much harder to put money into it if you’re stretching to cover rent each month.
Someone can own stock and be part of that 70%. Doesn’t mean they own enough stock for a record Dow Jones finish to mean much. The median retirement savings balance (which I’m equating with stock ownership here) is $45,000 for age 35-44. $115,000 for the 45-54, which is bad news for that age group.
A 10% annual gain in those stock totals is $4500 and $11,500. Nice, sure, but if we’re in a slowing job market and are losing out on promotions and upward mobility and paying another big double-digit increase in health insurance premiums, those earnings are swallowed quickly and your economic standing does not improve.
The claim I was responding to initially was that there was no possible way a sane person could think the economy is good or improving.
The stock market alone may not be a valid indicator that conditions are good for everyone, but it’s a large and prominent counterargument to the original claim.
I reread JJ’s and Ash78’s comments 3 times and I’m not seeing that claim.
The claim was made by Manwich, although the reply was mostly agreeing with Ash.
This is what I’m thinking: those gains are of course nice, but it doesn’t take too much math to see the problem, assuming you want to retire before you are 80 and hope to live more than 3 years. Sure compound interest is pretty great but it ain’t magic–retiring on $250K and hoping to live 30 years (hey you can dream), that would be under $10K a year. You don’t take it out all on day 1, however most sane people shift over to low risk (and low yield) bonds at that point so you’re hopefully able to keep up with inflation, but not growing the pot.
For the people who survived the layoffs and didn’t take pay cuts, they probably somehow didn’t feel like things were that bad in 2010. Afterall, it wasn’t happening to them.
In theory, things aren’t going that poorly for me now in 2026, where 2010 was an absolute fucking disaster, lol. Does that mean the economy was worse then than it is now? My guess is the response is going to reflect how the responder and their community is doing. For kids graduating college right now, my understanding is that the job market is similarly terrible (though I also don’t think young people quite understand just how bad it can get, lol).
I still think most of the bad vibes comes from the housing sector being a shit show in most markets, which isn’t going to be an easy thing to solve.
The stock market, right now, is being propped up by six AI stocks. There have been a million articles written by all types of people in the business and finance world on this issue.
Ok? Does that make anything I’ve said incorrect?
I agree it’s not directly related. But a good reminder that things could get real bad real quick if/when this AI “boom” goes bust.
The AI bubble is a huge part of what’s keeping the economy from being in a recession.
Those 38% are incapable of any other response, regardless of the facts.
Only 11% more and you reach the floor of the 27% Crazification Factor.
Hard to turn around and admit that you voted for the guy that EVERYONE KNEW was going to wreck your state’s economy.
We knew who he was 40 years ago, and nothing has changed.
I mean, did an entire generation of people just forget that he was a human punchline for like 2 decades? And nobody thought that might be for a good reason?
As a mid-range millennial, I really only knew him from The Apprentice (and various pop-culture references). It was pretty obvious when he opened his mouth, though.
And it was really fucking immediately into his first term. But come on! Rather have a guy who actively shits on the military whenever he gets a chance than shudder a woman. And definately a guy that attempted a coup and has 3 dozen felonies than gasp a woman of color.
Yeah, this blows my mind. There’s never been a presidential candidate about whom more was known than Trump in 2024. A lifetime of silver-spoon-in-mouth derangement followed by nine years of screaming it from a bully pulpit and people still checked that box on Nov 5. And now some are “gee, I didn’t know he was going to be this way” or are twisting their internal code into pretzels trying not to say or believe that.
Dear Leader could physically crap on their heads and they’ll thank him.
Like the guy I read about who literally refused a ventilator in favor of dying from the Covid he insisted wasn’t real until his last breath. This mindset is scary. Of course easier to see in others than acknowledge all of us hold on to certain beliefs regardless of evidence without realizing it. Just hopefully not as extreme.
I wouldn’t phrase it that way—but there is a strong nugget of partisanship run amok in the later paragraph about grades. The fact that only around 10% of people don’t have a strong opinion to either end is staggering and suggests that people’s feelings are largely detached from any kind of rational context.
I watched some body cam footage of a guy who got in a car crash after running from the cops. The paramedics did the standard concussion test and asked him who the president was. “yeah i don’t pay attention to that shit” was the answer.
…he did not have a concussion.
I prefer to think about trucks in comparison with the only three Standard Units of American Mass Media Measurement (SUAMMM for short):
How is this implemented? Simple, depending on context:
“My new F250 is 1/127 of a football field, uses an Olympic Swimming Pool of diesel every 1,273 miles, and is banned in Rhode Island.”
And has a turning radius of 2.2 Winnabagos.
I believe I’ve mentioned on this web site before that the Olympic swimming pool could be the universal measurement reference object. It encompasses:
In seriousness, if there was a visual representation of the amount of fuel a vehicle consumes per 10,000 miles, I think it would impact purchasing behavior. We’re just not used to visualizing things like that.
Its turning circle spills over into Massachusetts and Connecticut.
Average truck pricing is 29.6% of the average house price in Kentucky
I don’t know what to do with this stat, but I like it!
So trucks will take over for double wides?
I fear the Morning Dump tomorrow after 14,185 Big Macs today…
Bring a friend and it could be a Shithouse Showdown!
You sank my battleshit!!
I’m currently reading the Morning Dump while taking my morning dump!