The National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) conference in Las Vegas is over, and every dealer seems to have been told basically the same thing: We expect you to sell more cars next year. Given that most analysts expect a flat market this year, how exactly is that going to work?
The theme of today’s TMD is: Aim for the stars, and maybe you’ll land on the roof. Every brand seems optimistic going into the rest of the year, and they have some, um, interesting thoughts about what can be accomplished.
That’s not to say things can’t improve. Ford, with its seemingly endless string of warranty issues, finally made enough improvements and will be able to hand out some bonuses tied to those changes. Stellantis, though, is handing out notices to owners asking them to please stop driving their cars if they haven’t had the Takata airbag replacement.
And, finally, many great car writers and editors are willing to go on strike if Hearst, the company that owns all of the major traditional buff books, doesn’t meet their demands.
Stellantis Will Grow 25% This Year, Says Stellantis
It would be strange for an automaker to say to its dealers that it expected them to sell fewer cars in a year, right? The point is, typically, to sell more. I’m no business genius, clearly, but that would make a little bit of sense to me.
On the other hand, the experts at Cox Automotive are forecasting sales of 15.8 million units this year, which is slightly down from 2025. Even if you take the more positive outlook of 16 million from Edmunds, this means that there is essentially no surplus of buyers this year.
And, yet, the line always has to go up and to the right.
Vince Bond, Jr., over at Automotive News, has a good wrap-up post on what various brands are asking dealers to deliver this year:
Companies on hot streaks, including BMW and Hyundai, are confident they can keep rolling. Others see an opportunity to steal back market share from rivals.
Stellantis is pushing dealers for 25 percent more retail sales this year, with Nissan, Mitsubishi, Volvo and Volkswagen also wanting double-digit gains. Mercedes has set a 7 percent target, while Honda and Kia are each seeking 5 percent.
Wait, Stellantis said what? More please:
The automaker is banking on a redesigned Jeep Cherokee and the gasoline version of the redesigned Dodge Charger to recover lost market share. In addition to delivering fresh products, Stellantis is funneling more advertising dollars to assist dealers at the regional and local levels.
The 25 percent target is a “tough number” but not impossible, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.
Reviving the 5.7-liter Hemi V-8 on the flagship Ram 1500 could help the brand claw back market share in the pickup race, Fiorani said.
This, to a normal person who follows the car market, sounds absolutely unhinged. As a whole, Stellantis sales were down 7% year-over-year. It’s not like there are a lot of Fiat or Alfa Romeo products coming to the rescue, even if a new Jeep Cherokee can only help. Some of the brands have grown sales in North America, so they’re on a positive trajectory, but 25% is absolutely wild, even with marketing and incentive support. Collectively, these brands have been on a slide longer than Stellantis itself has existed.
Nissan putting up double-digit growth also sounds like a tough challenge, although the new Sentra is not bad (review coming). Nissan has fallen so far that perhaps up is the only direction left. Can Volkswagen dealers build double-digit growth wholly on the back of new Tiguans and old Atlases? Good luck!
Many of the brands hoping to grow are also subject to tariffs, meaning price competitiveness is going to create a new challenge. By comparison, Honda and Kia seem downright reasonable.
Ford Hands Out Bonuses For Quality Improvements
The “Quality is Job 19” jokes have been writing themselves for too long, so perhaps it’s only fair to point out that, at least by its own accounting, Ford improved last year.
Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley told employees in a town hall on Wednesday that companywide bonuses would be set to 130%, according to four people familiar with the matter, as the automaker delivered on its goal to improve vehicle quality.
Farley told attendees that the higher payouts are mainly due to the automaker’s improved initial vehicle quality, which measures repairs in the first 90 days of ownership. Farley said the metric is the best it has been in a decade, two of the people said.
As you can see in the photo above, CEO Jim Farley stands between each new vehicle now to make sure it’s in good condition.
Stellantis Begs You To Please Not Drive These Cars
It’s wild to me that the Takata Airbag Crisis is ongoing. I feel like we do a version of this story every single year. If you’ve somehow missed it, the company that made a huge proportion of the airbags for cars globally had a defect that would cause airbags to fire shrapnel into people when inflated. This means you could survive an accident only to be killed by the airbag that just tried to save you.
Most cars have been fixed, but Stellantis just put out a notice asking the more than 220,000 people who still have cars that haven’t been fixed to please stop driving those damn cars. Here are some of the details from Reuters:
Chrysler parent Stellantis NV issued a “Do Not Drive” warning on Wednesday for about 225,000 older vehicles in the United States fitted with unrepaired defective Takata air bag inflators.
The warning applies to older Dodge Ram, Durango, Dakota, Magnum and Challenger, Chrysler Aspen and 300, Jeep Wrangler, and Mitsubishi Raider vehicles that have not had repairs completed from various model years from 2003 through 2016.
Seriously, these cars are dangerous. If you haven’t had a fix, please get it fixed. If you don’t know, please check!
Hearst Union Members Plan To Go On Strike If Seemingly Reasonable Demands Aren’t Met
If you weren’t aware, all of the traditional big auto magazines left in the United States are all owned by one company: Hearst Magazines. That’s AutoWeek, MotorTrend, Good Housekeeping, Car And Driver, and Road & Track.
Those writers are currently bargaining, via the WGA East, for a fair contract. As a WGAE member with a lot of friends in the union, I have my own biases here. What the writers want is mostly simple:
- Livable salaries and raises after years without them.
- A revised work-at-home policy that doesn’t mean that someone who, say, has to review cars for a living is forced to schlep into Manhattan every day.
- AI protections.
As I’ve written about before, Hearst made a deal with OpenAI and is encouraging all of its writers and editors to use its products. It’s reasonable to expect that more companies will utilize AI tools, but it’s also reasonable that creative professionals will want some protections.
One of the big asks appears to be that Hearst can’t just use the likeness of its own employees in videos or photos (or voice, presumably). Could you imagine your favorite House Beautiful video personality having their persona and visage completely copied and used without their consent? Kinda creepy!
The fact that one company owns all these magazines means that how they act impacts the whole industry.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
For no reason at all, here’s The White Stripes performing “The Union Forever.”
The Big Question
Which automaker will see the biggest growth this year?
Top graphic images: DepositPhotos.com; Ray-Ban; Stellantis; Nissan; Volkswagen
From the context, I’m guessing that the 25% sales growth number is for US sales. It’s also possible that it means US and Canada, but Stellantis is a global company, so maybe they’re hoping for a 25% global growth? The post ought to make this more clear.
In the US, car morticians are already on standby for the Fiat and Alfa Romeo brands. The Chrysler and Dodge brands sold a combined 250k units last year. Aside from the gas Charger, there’s nothing in the pipeline that would spur growth.
That means any US growth is incumbent on Jeep and RAM numbers increasing by A LOT. RAM trucks sell well, but perpetually in last place among the (artist formerly known as) Big 3. Big RAM vans sell well on the lower end of the market, and maybe they’re bringing back a small van, which I think would sell well, but not enough to raise overall figures maybe a few percent. Jeep raised their prices too much in the last decade or so. Outside of the Wrangler, I don’t see too many folks clamoring for their SUV lineup.
It’s the US NADA, so I thought that was implied, but sorry if it wasn’t clearer.
I plan to be 25% taller next year.