The promise of populism is that the world is secretly simple, but the reality of governing is that the world is actually unbelievably complex. Today, I’m going to talk about that complexity. Specifically, I’m going to connect the prophecy of a comic book, the War in Ukraine, rural Japanese voters, and the price of wheat versus the price of rice, to the likelihood that your next Crosstrek could be way more expensive.
It’s going to be one of those Morning Dumps wherein I embrace the messiness of the world and try to make sense of it, James Burke-style. That’s going to be the fun way, I hope, to talk about trade, a subject that’s probably more interesting to us than to consumers who are just trying to figure out what to buy.
Will this be comfort for the European Union? Probably not! Europe is trying to get itself out of a trade war with the United States, and the fear of becoming the next Japan seems to be pushing it towards a deal. This is important for Porsche, which needs our market, as well as Stellantis, which has to appease both governments in Italy and in Washington.
Herodotus, the original historian, once observed that the worst grief a person can feel comes from having insight into much and power over nothing. Come along for a little ride with me through the world this morning, and you can decide if I have any of the former, because I’m certainly lacking in the latter.
Yes, You Might Be Able To Blame The Price Of A Crosstrek, BRZ, Or Even A WRX On The War In Ukraine And A Comic Book
@cnn Japan gets earthquakes every day – but viral predictions of a July 5 megaquake, from psychics to feng shui masters, have spooked some travelers into canceling their trips. Could it be true? CNN’s Hanako Montgomery reports. #cnn #news #manga #japan #earthquake #megaquake
This is going to get weird before it starts to make sense, but just bear with me here because it’s going to all make sense in the end.
I was enjoying the 4th of July with some friends who currently live in Tokyo but were back in the States for the summer. They were joking about how empty Tokyo was lately because of fears of a “Megaquake.” Was this a prediction from authorities prompting this fear? Not quite. In 1999, a Japanese artist named Ryo Tatsuki released a Manga called “The Future I Saw” about her many dreams and visions.
Some of these dreams seem to have come true, including the timing of the deaths of Freddy Mercury and Princess Diana (which she wrote about, according to her, prior to the book’s publication). What’s more important, though, is that she does seem to have accurately predicted the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami a full 12 years before it happened. The book wasn’t super popular when it was released, but in the last few years gained cult status, leading to a reprint in 2021.
This seems to be driving people in the area crazy, causing a drop in tourism and a rise in Japanese families buying large amounts of rice, which has, inevitably, led to a rise in rice prices and a drop in availability. The timing of this concern over megaquakes was tied, unfortunately, to a hot summer in 2023 that screwed with the harvest, and other factors impacting both the supply and demand of rice.
Couldn’t they just, you know, eat more pasta and bread? Sure, but the War in Ukraine has screwed with wheat prices (both Russia and Ukraine produce a lot of wheat) and impacted that other Japanese staple: ramen. Last year, the cost of wheat led to a little bit of a ramen crisis.
Japan imports a lot of its wheat, but it grows most of its rice, and the growing of rice in Japan is a major political issue. The government plays a big role in protecting the industry, as Bloomberg explains:
A total of 7.34 million tons of the grain — not just table rice, but also animal feed and rice that requires further processing, for example, to make sake — was produced in Japan last year. This is compared with just 770,000 tons of tariff-free rice the government imports each year. Rice imported beyond that amount is tariffed at ¥341 per kilogram. Given the fluctuations in the price of rice, it’s hard to determine the exact tariff rate, but by some estimates it’s about 200%. Outside of Japan, the majority of rice is imported from the US and Thailand.
Today the rice industry wields significant political influence and maintains close ties with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party. In particular, some swing districts rely heavily on bloc votes from agricultural organizations, including Ishiba’s home base in the Tottori-Shimane district. This forces Ishiba to balance the interests of these rural stakeholders with those of urban voters who wish to see lower rice prices.
Timing is everything. An election is coming up in Japan, and Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is potentially in trouble, which means he needs to deliver on the rice issue as well as trade. About 1-in-10 workers in Japan are employed by car companies or in jobs that are related to the auto industry.
It’s not going well. From CNN last week:
US President Donald Trump cast doubt on reaching a trade deal with Japan, a day after threatening higher tariffs on Japanese exports to the United States, claiming the country won’t buy American rice.
“We’ve dealt with Japan. I’m not sure if we’re gonna make a deal, I doubt it, with Japan,” he told reporters on Air Force One on Tuesday. “They and others are so spoiled from having ripped us off for 30, 40 years that it’s really hard for them to make a deal.”
President Trump keeps talking about there being a rice crisis in Japan and Japan not buying American rice. This isn’t precisely true. Japan has been importing “historically high volumes of U.S. rice” recently, though the above politics means that the government there is still keeping it limited for now.
Here’s the state of current negotiations and politics according to Reuters:
Some Japanese officials believe Tokyo will have to change tack and consider lowering barriers on farm imports to appease Trump.
Others, including Tokyo’s top trade negotiator Akazawa, have said Washington must reduce tariffs on Japan’s vital automotive sector if a broader deal is to be reached.
But first Ishiba must face his public, some of whom are growing increasingly frustrated by the lack of progress.
“Given the tariffs number that we got, frankly it makes me wonder what all the past negotiations were for,” said Hidetoshi Inada, 64, speaking outside Tokyo’s Shimbashi station on his way home from his office job for a telecoms firm.
“The outcome is everything,” he said.
It’s not great. While Japanese automakers are doing the best they can to move as much production to the United States as quickly as they can, that’s not an overnight process. Honda and Toyota have more robust manufacturing for their most popular products here in the United States, while brands like Subaru and Mazda rely more on imports from Japan and Mexico. In particular, the base model Crosstreks, BRZ, and WRX are all products that are made in Japan and imported to the United States.
The production of the higher trim Crosstrek has been shifted to the United States, so transitioning production of lower trims here might be easier. The BRZ and WRX are either going to be made in Japan or not at all. This means that we can either see the WRX/BRZ go away or, more likely, some amount of price increases will have to be passed onto consumers if a deal isn’t made.
While this isn’t purely the cause of one Manga, this one strange (and so far incorrect) prophecy has had an unfortunate ripple effect (a rice crisis, which put the idea of rice trade into Trump’s crosshairs) through global trade that could impact your next car purchase.
The EU, At Least, Isn’t Worried About Comic Books
It’s been a while since I’ve been able to use this strange stock photo of two people draped in the flag of the European Union, so I’m grateful to be able to talk about how the EU still thinks it’ll get a deal after President Trump seemed open to pushing the tariff deadline a bit.
The European Union is seeking to conclude a preliminary trade deal with the U.S. this week that would allow it to lock in a 10 percent tariff rate beyond President Donald Trump’s new August deadline for an agreement.
The EU still aims to reach a trade deal by July 9 after Trump shifted his tariff deadline to Aug. 1, said a spokesperson for the European Commission, which handles EU trade matters.
Universal tariffs that were due to begin on July 9 will be delayed until at least the beginning of August, the U.S. said on July 7. For the EU, tariffs on nearly all its exports to the U.S. will jump to 50 percent after the August deadline if it does not strike a deal beforehand.
The EU is looking into an arrangement that would allow European automakers that produce and export cars from the U.S. to import more EU vehicles at tariff rates below the current 25 percent, Reuters reported.
European automakers already export cars from the United States to other markets, so this is neither the best nor the worst news. A 10% baseline tariff number, which is being floated, is something most automakers should be able to absorb. It might lead to a shift in production of some models to America from Europe, but that’s a small price to pay for keeping access to American consumers.
Porsche Sales Slow Down From Q1
One brand that definitely needs American consumers is Porsche, and Porsche is one of the brands that doesn’t make any cars here. PCNA had a great first quarter, so even a slight decline in sales this quarter means that the brand overall had its best first half ever in the U.S.
Here’s the sales breakdown, if you’re curious:
The future, as Bloomberg reports, is a little less certain:
“We expect the environment to remain challenging,” Matthias Becker, Porsche’s board member for sales and marketing, said July 8 in a statement. The company cited fierce competition in China as the main factor behind its 28 percent sales slump in the world’s biggest auto market.
European luxury automakers are losing momentum in the U.S. and continue to fall behind in China, where local brands are taking over.
Mercedes-Benz on July 7 said its sales dropped 10 percent in the second quarter after President Donald Trump’s tariffs curbed deliveries in the U.S. and China. Porsche is one of the automakers most exposed to the levies because it lacks a factory in the U.S.
A deal between the European Union and the United States can’t come fast enough for Porsche.
Stellantis Production Drops In Italy
The whole world is freaking out a bit about tariffs, and both Japan and South Korea are on the losing end of it. If the EU can make a deal, that could be good for brands like Porsche (you can imagine a scenario where VW exports a ton of cars in order to allow Audi and Porsche to import cars at the 10% tariff), BMW, Volvo, et cetera.
What about Stellantis? One of the ongoing issues that Carlos Tavares, not pictured above, had when running the company was that the populist right-wing government under Giorgia Meloni doesn’t want to see the company shift jobs out of the country. However, as part of a trade deal to appease the populist ring-wing government in the United States… that’s exactly what the company might have to do.
Bloomberg explains why this is a headache for the new guy, too:
The company, which makes Fiat, Alfa Romeo and Jeep-branded models in Italy, produced 34% fewer passenger cars in the first six months of 2025, according to a report published Monday by FIM-CISL union. Commercial-vehicle production fell 16%.
The slump is a setback for new Chief Executive Officer Antonio Filosa, who faces multiple challenges after taking over in late June. Sales in the US, the company’s most important market, fell 10% in the first half, while European registrations have also been declining. Stellantis pledged to increase Italian production to repair relations with the government after ousting its former CEO last year.
If Stellantis made a bunch of popular cars in Europe and the United States, this would be less of a crisis, but that takes time. In the interim, Stellantis has to avoid the Nissan problem of overproduction of cars no one wants.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I’ve been slowly working my way through this latest season of The Bear, which has gotten over its post-success onanism and is producing episodes that are more enjoyable to watch. A recent episode used St. Vincent’s “Slow Disco” and that’s been rattling around in my head ever since.
The Big Question
What’s your favorite example of the car world being impacted by something that has nothing at all, really, to do with cars?
Top graphic images: Ryo Tatsuki/Ebay seller; Subaru; depositphotos.com; stock.adobe.com
What I’m most shocked by in this article is that the US is an exporter of rice. Where does it grow? I always assumed it wants a combination of Florida weather and Colorado geography which we don’t have.
I know of some in southeast Texas.
See El Campo Ricebirds!
California as well…
In order from highest to lowest, the 6 states that grow the most rice are: Arkansas, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas, and Missouri. It makes zero sense to grow in CA with the amount of water required.
wtf, Missouri? for what’s probably my favorite carb I sure don’t know much about rice
Is it just me, being a non-american, or has the author really taken the side of Trump’s tariffs, and with that the side that’s quite hostile against the EU, Japan, or Korea?
Matt’s written (elsewhere) about his experience going to Pennsylvania to knock on doors for the Harris campaign, so it’s possible that in an attempt to stay journalistically neutral he’s inadvertently sanewashing them
If it’s for political neutrality, that’s kind of understandable, even something that should be appreciated. (Who wants comments like mine, or the opposite, where one’s getting called for example woke in a derogatory way, on a site about cars?)
But still it feels a bit like he’s saying “bow before our great leader, or he will decimate you with his mighty tariffs!”
And I always found him by his writing to be somewhat of a flag waving chauvinist, that’s why I think maybe it’s just the cultural difference, and I just see things that aren’t real. (And a part of your comment makes me think it might be so, at least partially. So thank you for making me understand him a bit more.)
You are completely delusional. Take a step back and go touch some grass.
See, that’s what we call The Weave.
If The Autopian’s traffic suddenly dropped by 10%, would you be as sanguine about the outcome? 10% is significant and it’s going to have an impact on consumers.
Predicting an earthquake in Japan and retroactively claiming to have predicted the deaths of a couple of celebrities with absolutely no evidence is not an indication of clairvoyance, it’s an indication of a charlatan. Watch:
I predicted that Jimmy Carter would die in 2024, honest *wink*. Also, there’s going to be an earthquake in California in 2026. Better start prepping now!
We really need to teach kids about things like confirmation bias better.
It sort of reminds me of Simpsons “predictions” (although the Simpsons creators tend to clearly tell people they are NOT predicting things). They take something that is in the public consciousness, especially something recurring, and fictionalize it. People then see your fiction as a prediction when it happens again.
She’s just taken that approach and turned it into “prophecy.” Earthquake and tsunami in Japan? Sure, she happened to pick a year that a major one occurred, but they happen often enough that it’s really just reflecting a threat felt by Japan. A virus around 2020? Sure, Covid-19 was a pretty notable thing in 2020, but we’ve had Ebola scares, swine flu, avian flu, and so many more. It could have been any of those. And, again, they reflect a particular cultural fear (high population densities are very aware of pandemic threats). She predicted Freddie Mercury would die and a film would be made about him? Well, the accurate prediction of his death wasn’t published ahead of time and a biopic about an icon isn’t exactly rare.
Having predicted the death of a someone who had a raging case of AIDS and who hadn’t been seen in public much, back when no effective treatment was available isn’t really much of an accomplishment, is it?
This is more about something that has nothing to do with cars being impacted by cars: a shortage of gummy bears in the early years of the pandemic.
When the pandemic-induced shortage of computer chips led to a decline in car production there was a reduced demand for leather used in car upholstery which led to fewer pigs being slaughtered, hence less gelatin being available for making gummy bears.
(For those of you who may not know, gelatin isn’t just made from hooves; a common source of gelatin is the boiling of animals’ hides. Yup, sometimes leather isn’t just a byproduct of meat production; sometimes animals are slaughtered *just* for their hides with the meat byproducts being…byproducts.)
I really think Donald’s handler (who is Stephen Miller) is letting him do the economy/tariff thing completely on his own because it makes Donald feel like a special boy. He gets to act like a business genius on Fox News, and he stays out of Miller’s hair (lol) while the shadow president works to establish Gestapo 2.0 and completely eradicate any sort of social programs.
Out of all of the revolting freaks and grifters who inhabit Trump’s inner circle Miller may damn well be the freakiest…and I don’t mean freaky in a playful way. I mean it in a “there’s a literal neo Nazi who looks like uncanny valley Nosferatu telling one of the most powerful people in the world whose cognitive abilities are rapidly declining what he should do” way.
Miller is the only intelligent one. Everyone else is a failson/daughter who’s only employed because Trump saw them on the TV. Miller also knows how to stay on Trump’s good side, mostly because he’s so purely evil he has no ego that he needs stroked so he keeps to himself.
I do think his laser focus on immigration could possibly be his undoing, though. He’s going to spend so much money and so much time on this and will have increasingly little to show for it.
This is precisely why he terrifies me. He’s not just one of the assorted buffoons and grifters that latch onto Trump and come and go in an instant. Unfortunately he’s very smart and seems to be socially adept enough to stay in Trump’s good graces.
Other than Trump’s own goddamn children is there anyone left in his inner circle from his first administration other than Miller? I legitimately can’t think of any.
That itself is terrifying. If I’ve learned anything from ~25 years in the workforce, it’s that most business leaders tend to hire/poach from the same inner circle repeatedly (they lack creativity and want quick results). Trump is acting like he is just testing out the right combination of people who tell him what he wants to hear. Most leadership doesn’t just “clean house” every 12-18 months. Turnover is costly…in a normal world.
Hooray for our democratic Republic and its systems of checks and balances, and elected officials who opt to serve for a fixed limited time out a sense of civic duty and a desire to improve things for their constituents. Right?….Right?
We’ve knowingly had puppet presidents since at least W. It’s critically important to know who the puppetmaster(s) are. I think the late great Robin Williams put it well when he said that politicians should have to wear their sponsorships and such openly and largely, like NASCAR racers and racecars do
When current absurd chaos gets you down,”having insight into much and power over nothing.”, it helps to know that the country has made it through worse. Just before WWII, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/nazi-town-usa/
And that’s when my parents were young kids! So not too distant. Reminded by a recent re-airing.
Having been employed by a tier 1 supplier, no matter how screwed the manufacturers get, the suppliers get it worse, if they can survive at all.
“What’s your favorite example of the car world being impacted by something that has nothing at all, really, to do with cars?”
Chickens! Sixty years ago, the German government accused US producers of chickens of selling said animals below the cost of production. If you don’t know “The Rest of the Story”, the US retaliated against the German import tariff on chickens by introducing a 25% tariff on trucks imported into the US. It was aimed specifically at the German Volkswagen Type II pickup truck, as no other country was exporting trucks to the US at that time. But to this day, Americans can’t have pickup trucks imported from ANY country without paying a 25% tariff, so nobody will import them.
And that’s why it’s still called the Chicken Tax!
Indeed, the only non-German company selling trucks in America in any real numbers was Datsun (Nissan). To avoid antagonizing Japan in the crossfire cab-and-chassis were exempt from v1.0 of the Chicken Tax. An easy loophole for the conventional Datsun trucks and an impossible one for the fully unitized VWs. Also a boon for the welding shops of south LA and Long Beach.
Yes, I forgot that Nissan/Datsun was exporting pickups in 1965 as well. I tried finding out whether Datsun or VW has bigger sales, but available information is vague. Nissan says they exported 5,500 trucks to the US in 1965, but I can’t find a breakout for VW Type II. According to numbers I found at The Samba, there were 4614 Type II commercial trucks (panel vans and pickups, but not including passenger vans, which had seats and therefore weren’t trucks) exported to the US for 1965.
So once the truck tariffs were in place, Datsun was ahead of VW in exports of commercial trucks to the US!
I smell a deep dive coming. Thank you, Eggsalad! 🙂
Because it’s not true at all; to claim “isn’t precisely true” is misrepresenting that it’s not true.
Just trying not to piss off the maggots so much.
Hey Matt, If you are going to be covering material like this (and I approve), I have a recommendation for What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD.
The Selector – Star Fell Out Of The Blue
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vqWPspTfanc
It just fits the vibe…
I dig it, feels very Cowboy Bebop!
The Japanese are busy making preparations for an earthquake predicted by a comic 25 years ago while the US is charging full speed ahead into the future shown by a Simpsons episode 25 years ago where the Trump administration leaves the country broke.
Or Mike Judge’s Idiocracy.
WWE on the White House lawn? Absolutely tracks.
Don’t you insult my boy President Dwayne Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho like that. Textbook himbo who still wanted to take care of his people.
In fairness (and I don’t like to defend these actions in any way imaginable) the country was already broke before he got here.
Delayed tariffs? I just remembered it’s TACO Tuesday.
Every time the tariffs get delayed I end up wanting tacos. I’m gaining so much weight in this administration.
You both made me laugh, but then I remembered why these jokes exist, now I’m sad again.
Not the Kragle!!
DeLorean Motor Company shuttering because John DeLorean got busted for attempting to traffic Cocaine.
I mean, it was to try and fund the company, but it’s still so stereotypically 80s to see cocaine be the undoing of something.
Hell of a drug…
The U.S. is a nation in decline. President Trump is the embarrassing self inflicted wound that could spell the end, the equivalent of getting a perforated colon from shoving a hot wheels up your ass. Maybe we’ll survive but people will never see us in the same way again. They’ll always whisper, just out of earshot, “that’s the hot wheels guy.”
Next time use a Matchbox branded one instead, if you want acceptance in the ER.
We’ve made it through worse, this is just the first time we’ve pretty much completely done it to ourselves.
Hot Wheels Guy? That’s too much credit. I’m thinking more “Brony.” Watch those hooves, they smart a little.
We are hot wheels guy, electing Trump was the insertion of the hot wheels and his catastrophic policies are the predictable results, a perforated colon.
This is an….oddly specific metaphor
Hey, careful about the judgment here. Rusty clearly felt safe enough to open up to all of us and we should just be supportive about him learning his lesson.
I was looking for the most embarrassing of the idiotic and ridiculous ways a person could accidentally kill themselves because embarrassing, idiotic and.ridiculous self inflicted harm sums the situation up well.
Remember WWII?
When worldwide auto production came to an almost complete stop for 4 years?
And British, German & Japanese Auto Manufacturers were bombed nearly out of existence?
Musk burning down the US federal government and endorsing literal Nazis causing Tesla sales to crater in the US and mainland Europe.
For reasons, I would rather talk about the musical output of St. Vincent than vehicle production this morning.
Don’t forget The Grenadines, people always forget them.
Tobago knows the feeling. And Nevis. Plus Andrew Ridgeley.
What?
Annie Clark is an incredible musician, and even when I’m not fully on board with a particular album she never makes boring music imo. Her cover of Dig a Pony is fantastic, and the “Strange Mercy” album is forever in my top 10 albums.
I was initially introduced to her in graduate school in 2013. I thought her music was unique but verged on being weird and eccentric for the sake of being weird and eccentric. However seeing her live changed everything.
She was one of the warm up acts for QOTSA on one of the ….Like Clockwork touring cycles. My buddies and I were mainly focused on getting as drunk as we could before the Queens went on but there was suddenly this stunning woman in an avant garde leather outfit shredding on stage with a backup band that was entirely made up of women.
As a guitarist I was mesmerized watching her fingers fly around and do all this outside the box shit while singing and never missing a beat. Suffice to say I’ve been a fan ever since. I liked Masseduction for the most part but unfortunately Los Ageless and New York got wildly overplayed on SiriusXM and I got a bit sick of them.
My take that’s pretty nuclear amongst her fans is that Daddy’s Home is her best record. It’s definitely way less eccentric than most of her early stuff and has a sort of straightforward classic rock sound that’s reminiscent of Young Americans era Bowie but I think it’s her best songwriting by a country mile and the more stripped down approach to the instrumentation and production gives everything a little more space to breathe and makes the moments of weirdness a lot more memorable.
I forget which track it is but at one point there’s this searing, David Gimlour esque vibrato party of a guitar solo that comes out of no where and it’s just fucking brilliant. The record is full of pleasant surprises. But most of her diehard fans aren’t too keen on that album…which I find interesting because it was her most critically acclaimed project.
Love her work. Haven’t managed to catch her live yet. Great artist and I wholeheartedly agree, her guitar work is amazin! Particularly liked her work with David Byrne.
“This isn’t precisely true” is a massive understatement for about 99% of what comes out of that orange cesspool’s pie hole.
There *could* be some short-term gain for the US from the trade wars as concessions are made to avoid tariffs. In the long term the US is telling the world that we are not a stable trade partner, and that every single buckazoid they invest in us could go up in smoke the moment another blowhard like Trump gets elected.
The global economic order that the US has benefited massively from took decades to build. The long game is how you win at trade.
Yep, the deeper fear among economist now is that we face a two-fold deterioration in our reputation:
But you don’t have to my word for it! Just look at the dollar’s worst 6th-month period since Nixon took us off the gold standard.
But soon we will achieve a trade balance with countries like Vietnam by tanking our own economy so badly that our consumer spending power evaporates! Huzzah!
That’ll finally teach those North Vietnamese commies to mess with us….er…democracy!
*Half of all US clothing manufacturers declare bankruptcy*
Teach em good!
Matt, This is from one Matt to another here: I love your writing and agree with most things you put here on The Autopian. I understand you are trying to spice up TMD but please, dont act like some random person’s “predictions” are anywhere close to actually being real and not just coincidence at best, or as is most likely the case, dumb people looking for any meaning in their lives instead of using any amount of critical thinking. I know you are not dumb, but this sounds just like Nostradamus, complete BS that people latch on to and activelly make the world a worse place but dumbing it down. Please tell me about all the other “predictions” in this comic that didnt come true. The author cant be “right” more than a handful of times unless people start jumping through serious hoops to make things line up.
Anyway, I still liked this TMD, and I will say to answer your question: Chicken Tax?
I don’t think he himself is giving any credence to these predictions, but clearly a lot of people in Japan are, so he’s reporting on it.
Understandable, I didnt think he actively believed them, but we need to call out dumb things as a society, and he is not calling this out as the dumb thing it is.
Totally unrelated, but your username reminded me of a nice black NSX I saw last week randomly at a grocery store.
The current tariff fiasco isn’t as much about cars as like the chicken tax, as it’s impacting a ton of stuff, whereas the chicken tax targets trucks, so I’ll say the chicken tax.
The subprime mortgage crisis is a great example of something that fucked the car industry for years simply because rich dudes weren’t getting richer faster.
I’m confused about how the 1991 and 1997 deaths of Freddy and Diana, respectively, were predicted by a 1999 comic book?
So, as I understand it, she had those dreams and wrote them down and those predictions are in the Manga. For that, you’ll have to believe her. For the earthquake/tsunami, the book was already in print.
Yeah, she claims to have predicted the date of Freddie Mercury’s death in the 70s. Of course, with no published prediction beforehand, it’s pretty easy to consider that prediction revisionist. I also have read things saying that any predictions she makes that do not come true will be delayed by 15 years, which is a pretty significant punt if you can get a few things right.
The prediction of a virus is also a pretty easy prediction. We have avian flu, swine flu, or others frequently enough that, if there hadn’t been covid, a person could point to one of those occurring “around 2020” and probably suggest it peaked in April of a year around then, too. And a return a few years later makes sense.
As someone who did some work in seismic engineering… predicting earthquakes and tsunamis in any given region in Japan is like predicting water being wet.
Calling out New Madrid in the late 18th Century would have been more impressive.
She claimed to have predicted those much earlier. Unverified, of course.
I clarified this in the piece.
And in a comment you posted about the time I hit post. I’m having some internet issues at work, so you may have clarified significantly before I did, and I just saw it later. Sorry if I jumped in too late.
I had the same question. Wasn’t clear and I was thinking I could predict those things in 1999 as well.
I predicted 9/11 would happen. I didn’t tell anyone that I knew about it until after the fact, which was kind of a dick move now that I think about it.
I predicted the housing financial collapse of 2008 would occur in 2007.
Yes – it was a year early.
Fortunately my parents sold all their real estate holdings in time.
I should have shorted REITs
There are people who shorted the housing market and still went bankrupt because the system was so broken it took too long for the market to realize what was happening and in the meantime their short positions killed them. That’s the thing about shorting, you can’t just be right, you also have to be on time.
I accidentally did too. I sold my house in July of 2008 as I could see that things are about to get really unpredictable in the economy, no longer wanted to be a landlord 800 miles away, and figured it would be nice to pay off every CC, auto loan, student loan, etc. and be several 10’s ahead. I was not expecting that the weirdness I was feeling would go straight after the housing market though and got really lucky with my timing.
Hell… the short-lived X-Files spinoff did just that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lone_Gunmen_(TV_series)
It’s a good thing you regert nothing. Any regerts might lead to intense feelings of guilt for having kept that to yourself.
One time a guy wore a tan suit and put dijon mustard on his burger and now we have tariffs!
Remember that time he complained about not being able to find arugula? What an elitist! 🙂
That tan suit was an outrage, but Trump’s blue suit for the pope’s funeral was just a great way to stand out in the sea of black.
That’s what I always try to achieve at funerals. A real stand-out look. It’s important that the focus is on me.
“Yes, You Might Be Able To Blame The Price Of A Crosstrek, BRZ, Or Even A WRX On The War In Ukraine And A Comic Book”
You might, but I’m gonna blame Trump and his idiotic economic policies.
“What’s your favorite example of the car world being impacted by something that has nothing at all, really, to do with cars?”
The Trump administration idiocy that includes the stupid tariffs.
The tariffs are not about cars. They’re about creating a “crisis” that Crooked Trump “solves” by “making a deal”.
Only the dumbest of the dumbest people buy into Crooked Trump’s “genius” and “deal making” ability.
Another “Just when i thought I was out they pull me back in!” Moment brought to you by “those deplorable people”.
Trump seems to fail to realize that he’s the beneficiary of generations of good decisions, and that his bad decisions aren’t immediately failing miserably because of that buffer. It’s like the old expression “Born on third, almost go picked off and for some reason ran back to second, then again to first, then tried to steal home from first and figured that still counts as a home run because he touched the plate.” I think that’s how it goes.
But also, F Meloni. You can be as populist as you want, but for a country with a rapid dwindling (and aging) population, you don’t really have a lot of say in trying to push people out or force car production to stay domestic. It doesn’t make sense. Another thing she recently did was shut down the pipeline of people seeking Italian citizenship by ancestry (jus sanguinis), which left thousands of relatively wealthy, eager people from being able to bring their money and talents to the country. Does that sound familiar?
“What’s your favorite example of the car world being impacted by something that has nothing at all, really, to do with cars?”
Remember when we all got sick, so car companies decided we were all gonna die, so computer chips went away? Now we have trimflation.
Pepperidge Farm remembers.