If you’d have asked me yesterday which automaker I thought would be the perfect pairing for Google/Alphabet’s driverless car division, Waymo, I’d have said Toyota. Not only does the company have a huge reach, the Japanese automaker seems like it’s further behind than most in advanced driving systems.
No one asked me, so you’re just going to have to trust that what I say is true. Waymo and Toyota announced a deal this morning, and while details are limited, this seems entirely sensible as I’ll explain at the top of The Morning Dump. Currently, Waymo is testing Zeekr’s vans–which are made in China– and Hyundais.
That might be a problem, especially as British defense contractors are warning their employees to be wary of Chinese-made cars.
After many warnings from automotive executives that tariffs might cripple the industry, President Trump announced a new formula to help automakers transition. It’s something, but suppliers and automakers don’t seem to be Honda Jazz’d about it. Ford and GM look like they’ll do better in this new paradigm, but I’m worried about Stellantis. Of course, I’m always worried about Stellantis.
Waymo Is The Safe Bet
Depending on how much credence you give to Tesla’s FSD claims, Waymo is either the leader in driverless car technology or a distant second. It all comes down to your view on how we should treat driverless cars.
Waymo’s approach is sensor-heavy and relies on a lot of geofencing and a constantly advancing set of rules, slowly but iteratively stacked on one another. This is oversimplifying, but the Tesla approach is more processing-heavy and “learns” using an advanced neural net.
I tend to lean towards the Waymo version of this as being more advanced, especially as Tesla sounds like it’ll be using some location-based modifications for its Austin launch of its robotaxi service.
This philosophical difference, on its own, is a better match for the slow and careful Toyota. Additionally, Tesla is just a terrible bet right now, given the CEO’s numerous side-quests.
Here’s what Toyota said in its announcement of the project:
Hiroki Nakajima, Member of the Board and Executive Vice President of Toyota Motor Corporation, emphasized the significance of this collaboration, stating, “Toyota is committed to realizing a society with zero traffic accidents and becoming a mobility company that delivers mobility for all. We share a strong sense of purpose and a common vision with Waymo in advancing safety through automated driving technology, and we are confident this collaboration can help bring our solutions to more people around the world, moving us one step closer to a zero-accident society. Our companies are taking an important step toward a future with greater safety and peace of mind for all.”
Tekedra Mawakana, co-CEO at Waymo, also emphasized the impact of this collaboration, stating: “Waymo’s mission is to be the world’s most trusted driver. This requires global partners like Toyota that share our commitment to improving road safety and expanding accessible transportation. We look forward to exploring this strategic partnership, incorporating their vehicles into our ride-hailing fleet and bringing the magic of Waymo’s autonomous driving technology to Toyota customers.”
Toyota has its own autonomous driving operation, Woven, and it sounds like the two will work together. Whatever that means. Being able to augment its own vehicles with Waymo technology is a huge development cost savings for Toyota, and Waymo is a great brand.
There’s a lot in this for Waymo as well. The Google/Alphabet-owned company doesn’t want to build cars and can therefore be agnostic about which automakers it works with, but Tesla is a direct competitor to this technology. No one thinks that this means Waymo will suddenly toss all its Hyundai and Zeekr robocabs into the ocean, but Waymo now has a strong partner in Japan.
Eventually, though, I can see the Zeekr cabs being a problem for Waymo, but a bunch of Toyota RAV4s is just as practical in Tallahassee as they are in Tokyo.
Defense Contractors Warned About Advanced Chinese EVs
You can think of someone as an enemy for so long that they eventually become one, sort of like Blur and Oasis. It’s why I want to be careful when we talk about China, because, in an ideal world, the two countries would have friendly relations. A war with China is good for absolutely no one.
All that being said, America and China are now peer states and have potentially conflicting interests in many parts of the world. That’s a nice way of saying that I’d sleep better at night if the Chinese military didn’t know everyone else’s defense secrets.
In that way, advanced cars are kind of the perfect spy. Equipped with sensors, cameras, microphones, GPS, and even LIDAR, a rival who had access to all that data could learn metric crap ton about anyone who works in a sensitive industry, and that’s before anyone plugs in a phone.
Reportedly, that’s an issue British defense contractors are facing, and The Guardian has an interview with some experts who do think it’s a real concern:
Experts say car owners in sensitive industries or in political and government positions should exercise discretion.
“If you are an engineer who is working on a sixth-generation fighter jet and you have a work phone that you are connecting to your personal vehicle, you need to be aware that by connecting these devices you could be allowing access to data on your mobile,” says Joseph Jarnecki, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.
Nate Drier, a tech lead at the cybersecurity firm Sophos, says concerned drivers or passengers can click the “don’t trust” option when they connect their phone charger with the car – but they then lose out on all the benefits that ensue, from using music streaming apps to messaging.
“I would assume most people are allowing that connection to happen so they can have all the benefits of the features on that phone,” he says.
I am bad about this, admittedly. I hope no one out there is learning all of our Autopian secrets. They must never find out the perfect blend of Combos and Diet Coke that keeps Jason running.
Tariff Modifications Are ‘Not A Cause For Celebration’
Last night, President Trump signed an order modifying his automotive tariffs that should provide some relief to some automakers for the next couple of years.
Here’s the full release from The White House if you’re curious, but this seems to be the meat of it:
The United States has imposed tariffs under various statutory authorities and through a number of Executive Orders and proclamations to protect national security and address unusual and extraordinary threats to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. Although each of these actions, as listed in section 2 of this order, serves separate and distinct policy purposes, I have now determined that, to the extent these tariffs apply to the same article, these tariffs should not all have a cumulative effect (or “stack” on top of one another) because the rate of duty resulting from such stacking exceeds what is necessary to achieve the intended policy goals.
That part reduces the number of tariffs that can be applied together, but that’s not all. There’s also this proclamation. That says:
To more effectively eliminate the threat to impair national security posed by imports of automobiles and automobile parts, I find that it is necessary to modify the system imposed in Proclamation 10908 by reducing duties assessed on automobile parts accounting for 15 percent of the value of an automobile assembled in the United States for 1 year and equivalent to 10 percent of that value for an additional year as follows:
What does this actually mean? Bloomberg has a less technical explanation:
Under that measure, carmakers who produce and sell completed automobiles in the US can claim an offset worth up to 3.75% of the value of American-made vehicles.
The offset will reduce in one year to as much as 2.5% of the value of those cars, and then be eliminated the following year, a bid to motivate domestic manufacturing. The offset will be available for cars that were produced after April 3.
“I want them to make their parts here,” Trump said during a rally outside Detroit on Tuesday. “We gave them a little bit of time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this.”
USMCA-compliant vehicles and parts continue to be exempt from tariffs, I think. If you’ve got a vehicle that’s built in the United States, or USMCA-compliant, you’re ok.
This is helpful for automakers, but it’s a little tougher for suppliers, according to Automotive News:
The tariff modifications may ease some of the strain on automakers, but they don’t alleviate supply chain disruption, Sam Fiorani, analyst at AutoForecast Solutions, told Automotive News.
“This is an industry that has built up with a global supply chain, and the tariffs don’t seem to take that into account,” he said. “The automakers are the focus, not the hundreds of suppliers that need to be part of this conversation.”
The modifications are “not a cause for celebration,” an executive from a major supplier told Automotive News. The person asked not to be named given the sensitive political nature of the topic.
Suppliers have been squeezed by automakers since approximately forever, but especially during the pandemic. This might give some leverage to USMCA-compliant suppliers who can replace non-USMCA ones.
Stellantis, Woof
If you’d like to feel better about your own finances in The Year Of Our Hemi 2025, check out the just-released Stellantis fact sheet for its Q1 2025 financials. If comparison is the thief of joy, that thief is going to be really disappointed when it looks at the Maserati deliveries.
Overall, the company saw a drop of about 14% from Q1 of 2024, which itself wasn’t a great quarter. It makes sense because, globally, shipments were also down about 9% over the same period, with a whopping 20% drop in the North American market.
The company helpfully broke out Maserati, which delivered just 1,700 vehicles in Q1 2025, compared to 3,300 in Q1 2024. Way back in 2022, Maserati delivered a total of 25,900 vehicles in the year, which doesn’t seem possible at the current rate.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s International Jazz Day, so let’s celebrate with “Black Gold” by Esperanza Spalding, which may or may not be about the Nissan 280ZX.
The Big Question
Which Toyota product would make the perfect Waymo Taxi and why is it the Tercel All-Trac?
Top photo: Toyota/Waymo
It’s been a full 4 days without Elon on the TMD. I demand answers.
Sienna Minivan or the Toyota Crown. Both cars can exist for different price points with Taxi / Ride sharing.
Stellantis having problems, I’m not surprised. They are poorly positioned in the US. Their financial report says so.
With tariffs and a projected terrible US business environment for the next 3.5 years, I could see them spinning off their US brands or possibly selling them. They have stated that they have too many car brands. I’m sure the “big three” collapsing into the “big two” or creating a new company with a stock issuing would make sense and hedge their bets.
They could get licensing deals to manufacture anything that is desirable and selling outside the US (Jeep).
With a stock split, it would allow each section of their company to operate efficiently, they get to keep the revenue from when times were good, and minimize the impacts on badly needed R&D for the US market. Investors could then sell the new company, or keep the stock to diversify, geographically.
The Toyota Tercel All Trac has a less than subtle resemblance to Johnny Cab, the prophecy shall be fulfilled.
Which Toyota product would make the perfect Waymo Taxi and why is it the Tercel All-Trac?
Nah…you want the Toyota Alphard
Maserati: the tips on the trident represent each car sold that year.