If you’d have asked me yesterday which automaker I thought would be the perfect pairing for Google/Alphabet’s driverless car division, Waymo, I’d have said Toyota. Not only does the company have a huge reach, the Japanese automaker seems like it’s further behind than most in advanced driving systems.
No one asked me, so you’re just going to have to trust that what I say is true. Waymo and Toyota announced a deal this morning, and while details are limited, this seems entirely sensible as I’ll explain at the top of The Morning Dump. Currently, Waymo is testing Zeekr’s vans–which are made in China– and Hyundais.
That might be a problem, especially as British defense contractors are warning their employees to be wary of Chinese-made cars.
After many warnings from automotive executives that tariffs might cripple the industry, President Trump announced a new formula to help automakers transition. It’s something, but suppliers and automakers don’t seem to be Honda Jazz’d about it. Ford and GM look like they’ll do better in this new paradigm, but I’m worried about Stellantis. Of course, I’m always worried about Stellantis.
Waymo Is The Safe Bet
Depending on how much credence you give to Tesla’s FSD claims, Waymo is either the leader in driverless car technology or a distant second. It all comes down to your view on how we should treat driverless cars.
Waymo’s approach is sensor-heavy and relies on a lot of geofencing and a constantly advancing set of rules, slowly but iteratively stacked on one another. This is oversimplifying, but the Tesla approach is more processing-heavy and “learns” using an advanced neural net.
I tend to lean towards the Waymo version of this as being more advanced, especially as Tesla sounds like it’ll be using some location-based modifications for its Austin launch of its robotaxi service.
This philosophical difference, on its own, is a better match for the slow and careful Toyota. Additionally, Tesla is just a terrible bet right now, given the CEO’s numerous side-quests.
Here’s what Toyota said in its announcement of the project:
Hiroki Nakajima, Member of the Board and Executive Vice President of Toyota Motor Corporation, emphasized the significance of this collaboration, stating, “Toyota is committed to realizing a society with zero traffic accidents and becoming a mobility company that delivers mobility for all. We share a strong sense of purpose and a common vision with Waymo in advancing safety through automated driving technology, and we are confident this collaboration can help bring our solutions to more people around the world, moving us one step closer to a zero-accident society. Our companies are taking an important step toward a future with greater safety and peace of mind for all.”
Tekedra Mawakana, co-CEO at Waymo, also emphasized the impact of this collaboration, stating: “Waymo’s mission is to be the world’s most trusted driver. This requires global partners like Toyota that share our commitment to improving road safety and expanding accessible transportation. We look forward to exploring this strategic partnership, incorporating their vehicles into our ride-hailing fleet and bringing the magic of Waymo’s autonomous driving technology to Toyota customers.”
Toyota has its own autonomous driving operation, Woven, and it sounds like the two will work together. Whatever that means. Being able to augment its own vehicles with Waymo technology is a huge development cost savings for Toyota, and Waymo is a great brand.
There’s a lot in this for Waymo as well. The Google/Alphabet-owned company doesn’t want to build cars and can therefore be agnostic about which automakers it works with, but Tesla is a direct competitor to this technology. No one thinks that this means Waymo will suddenly toss all its Hyundai and Zeekr robocabs into the ocean, but Waymo now has a strong partner in Japan.
Eventually, though, I can see the Zeekr cabs being a problem for Waymo, but a bunch of Toyota RAV4s is just as practical in Tallahassee as they are in Tokyo.
Defense Contractors Warned About Advanced Chinese EVs
You can think of someone as an enemy for so long that they eventually become one, sort of like Blur and Oasis. It’s why I want to be careful when we talk about China, because, in an ideal world, the two countries would have friendly relations. A war with China is good for absolutely no one.
All that being said, America and China are now peer states and have potentially conflicting interests in many parts of the world. That’s a nice way of saying that I’d sleep better at night if the Chinese military didn’t know everyone else’s defense secrets.
In that way, advanced cars are kind of the perfect spy. Equipped with sensors, cameras, microphones, GPS, and even LIDAR, a rival who had access to all that data could learn metric crap ton about anyone who works in a sensitive industry, and that’s before anyone plugs in a phone.
Reportedly, that’s an issue British defense contractors are facing, and The Guardian has an interview with some experts who do think it’s a real concern:
Experts say car owners in sensitive industries or in political and government positions should exercise discretion.
“If you are an engineer who is working on a sixth-generation fighter jet and you have a work phone that you are connecting to your personal vehicle, you need to be aware that by connecting these devices you could be allowing access to data on your mobile,” says Joseph Jarnecki, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.
Nate Drier, a tech lead at the cybersecurity firm Sophos, says concerned drivers or passengers can click the “don’t trust” option when they connect their phone charger with the car – but they then lose out on all the benefits that ensue, from using music streaming apps to messaging.
“I would assume most people are allowing that connection to happen so they can have all the benefits of the features on that phone,” he says.
I am bad about this, admittedly. I hope no one out there is learning all of our Autopian secrets. They must never find out the perfect blend of Combos and Diet Coke that keeps Jason running.
Tariff Modifications Are ‘Not A Cause For Celebration’
Last night, President Trump signed an order modifying his automotive tariffs that should provide some relief to some automakers for the next couple of years.
Here’s the full release from The White House if you’re curious, but this seems to be the meat of it:
The United States has imposed tariffs under various statutory authorities and through a number of Executive Orders and proclamations to protect national security and address unusual and extraordinary threats to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. Although each of these actions, as listed in section 2 of this order, serves separate and distinct policy purposes, I have now determined that, to the extent these tariffs apply to the same article, these tariffs should not all have a cumulative effect (or “stack” on top of one another) because the rate of duty resulting from such stacking exceeds what is necessary to achieve the intended policy goals.
That part reduces the number of tariffs that can be applied together, but that’s not all. There’s also this proclamation. That says:
To more effectively eliminate the threat to impair national security posed by imports of automobiles and automobile parts, I find that it is necessary to modify the system imposed in Proclamation 10908 by reducing duties assessed on automobile parts accounting for 15 percent of the value of an automobile assembled in the United States for 1 year and equivalent to 10 percent of that value for an additional year as follows:
What does this actually mean? Bloomberg has a less technical explanation:
Under that measure, carmakers who produce and sell completed automobiles in the US can claim an offset worth up to 3.75% of the value of American-made vehicles.
The offset will reduce in one year to as much as 2.5% of the value of those cars, and then be eliminated the following year, a bid to motivate domestic manufacturing. The offset will be available for cars that were produced after April 3.
“I want them to make their parts here,” Trump said during a rally outside Detroit on Tuesday. “We gave them a little bit of time before we slaughter them if they don’t do this.”
USMCA-compliant vehicles and parts continue to be exempt from tariffs, I think. If you’ve got a vehicle that’s built in the United States, or USMCA-compliant, you’re ok.
This is helpful for automakers, but it’s a little tougher for suppliers, according to Automotive News:
The tariff modifications may ease some of the strain on automakers, but they don’t alleviate supply chain disruption, Sam Fiorani, analyst at AutoForecast Solutions, told Automotive News.
“This is an industry that has built up with a global supply chain, and the tariffs don’t seem to take that into account,” he said. “The automakers are the focus, not the hundreds of suppliers that need to be part of this conversation.”
The modifications are “not a cause for celebration,” an executive from a major supplier told Automotive News. The person asked not to be named given the sensitive political nature of the topic.
Suppliers have been squeezed by automakers since approximately forever, but especially during the pandemic. This might give some leverage to USMCA-compliant suppliers who can replace non-USMCA ones.
Stellantis, Woof
If you’d like to feel better about your own finances in The Year Of Our Hemi 2025, check out the just-released Stellantis fact sheet for its Q1 2025 financials. If comparison is the thief of joy, that thief is going to be really disappointed when it looks at the Maserati deliveries.
Overall, the company saw a drop of about 14% from Q1 of 2024, which itself wasn’t a great quarter. It makes sense because, globally, shipments were also down about 9% over the same period, with a whopping 20% drop in the North American market.
The company helpfully broke out Maserati, which delivered just 1,700 vehicles in Q1 2025, compared to 3,300 in Q1 2024. Way back in 2022, Maserati delivered a total of 25,900 vehicles in the year, which doesn’t seem possible at the current rate.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s International Jazz Day, so let’s celebrate with “Black Gold” by Esperanza Spalding, which may or may not be about the Nissan 280ZX.
The Big Question
Which Toyota product would make the perfect Waymo Taxi and why is it the Tercel All-Trac?
Top photo: Toyota/Waymo
Having ridden in a very nice Jaguar i-Pace Waymo, I can’t image the small backseat of a 1980s Japanese economy car is going to be a very nice place to be, but you do you.
My money is on a Crown Signia: comfortable, efficient, and the hatchback is handy for larger luggage.
RAV4 and Sienna stick out because they are already used as taxis. I guess the crown in some markets maybe the Avalon. The big thing Toyota does that could be really useful in all this is standard harnesses. If they are designed for this system they will probably have the harness and the mounting points for whatever hardware is needed. That should mean easier upgrades which has been a huge issue for other manufacturers. If waymo goes the Comma.ai approach it could be very interesting.
Best Toyota for Waymo? The Crown Comfort of course, especially the model with the driver-operated rear passenger door.
… But there’s no driver to operate that door.
You’d need some sort of actuator to engage the (presumably mechanical) mechanism I suppose.
Like… A handle?
Haha as in the car will need to engage it automatically
Having experienced a number of rides in Waymos and a number of rides with Lyft drivers in Teslas using some form of self driving while ranting about their hate for Uber, the Waymo approach feels more predictable, safer for pedestrians and drivers in other cars, safer for the passengers, and (for better or for worse) easier to control and organize from the outside. A thing that surprised me about the restrictions of Waymo was that you had to meet it at a designated pickup spot and be dropped off at one of these spots. It wouldn’t stop at every address, but I was always within a block of where I was going. Good for traffic and safety but certainly an example of being controlled and organized by someone other than yourself.
The thing about the Waymo that immediately put me at ease was they have a display that looks more or less like a Google Map showing everything the sensors see: cars, people, dogs, shopping carts, bicycles, brake lights, blinkers, other Waymos, etc. When a car or pedestrian disappeared behind an object, the object reappeared when it was projected to every time I watched for it.
The only thing that really strikes me as incredibly weird about Waymos is the stories about honking in Waymo parking lots. If a Waymo can spot a Waymo (and I know it can) why on earth do Waymos honk at Waymos?
> If a Waymo can spot a Waymo (and I know it can) why on earth do Waymos honk at Waymos?
It’s a courtship ritual. How do you think we get more Waymos?
For some reason, I always thought it was Waymo using those Jaguars: the iPace or ePace or fPace or Pace University, or whatever it’s called… their sleek but a bit long-in-the-tooth crossover, festooned with camera/lidar/magic pods all over it’s body like just so many plastic pustules. Or are those not from Waymo, but one of the other autonomous startups? I still see them fairly frequently around LA, tooling around w/o drivers in them.
Matt, do you know of Craig Finn? https://craigfinn.net His single “Luke & Leanna” has been getting a lot of play on LA’s SoCal Sound for a couple months now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96HCUFQIGqE He reminds me a little of John Hiatt, but maybe that’s just me. 🙂
The Jaguar i-Paces are Waymo, yes. That’s all I’ve ever seen from Waymo too, both in California and Arizona.
The Hyundai partnership was only announced last October, and was for Ioniq 5s to be outfitted as WAYMO cars. Is that dead now with the Toyota partnership?
Thanks JP15! 🙂
I think Toyota tying up with Waymo is a great deal for Waymo. Not so much for Toyota. Toyota earned its reputation for quality because it moved slowly and didn’t trust new technology before it was proven. Electronics in a Toyota are pretty much on par with electronics in everything else: unreliable and a source of many recalls. As manufacturers rely more and more on computers to run the cars, the worse they get. (I sometimes think Lucas must make automotive computers.)
Best robotaxi Toyota: Tundra modified with Subaru Brat Jump seats – take advantage of that Subaru partnership.
I’m guessing there is a direct correlation to the 15% value now and 10% in a year tariff reimbursement of non US parts in cars and what Tesla expects their non US parts to be, so that the reimbursement covers exactly what they would need to have no impact, and no more.
There is only one meaningful metric to determine whether a car is truly self-driving. That is when the company selling the self-driving car explicitly accepts liability when the system is engaged.
Whereas if the US knows everyone else’s military secrets it’s not much of a threat because Hegseth will have broadcast them worldwide before the end of Happy Hour, thus preserving the global balance of power.
Hey, the US will only accidentally broadcast them to The Atlantic. If The Atlantic broadcasts them to the world … well that’s on them.
He doesn’t need to broadcast them, all the interested parties have already taken up residence in his devices and desktops and can just help themselves.
They should partner with the guy who built that wooden truck.
Toyota Century or GTFO.
The Century SUV was shown a day or two ago with sliding rear doors, which really is something that should have rated a lengthy post here. I guess The Autopian remains under the thumb of Big Hinge, despite Torch’s unceasing efforts to keep himself… uh, un-so.
Ahh a SUV with sliding doors. As I was driving the other day amongst the sea of massive SUVs, I wondered when they would come full circle and turn into vans.
They need a snappy name for the partnership.
Toyomo would make sense: 2/3 Toyota, 1/3 Waymo.
Waymota – no. Waymo shouldn’t have top billing and they shouldn’t have their whole name in there.
Toyaymo – mostly equitable: each company gets three dedicated letters and they can share/fight over who owns the a, but the pronunciation would favor Waymo.
Waymoyota – same objection as Waymota, but here it sounds like someone has just acquired a lot more yota.
Toyotaymo – favors Toyota from a letter count, is equitable from a syllable standpoint, but sounds like an off brand of pizza rolls.
You’ve put entirely to much thought into this. They’ll probably just pull a Stellantis and come up with some name that sounds like a prescription drug. Driving got you down? See if Domgravis is right for you….
I immediately thought “Woven by Waymo” when I learned just now that Toyota’s self driving efforts were called Woven.
“Tesla approach is more processing-heavy and “learns” using an advanced neural net”
I’d say it learns about as well as a window licker. My Tesla with FSD makes the same mistakes at the same places EVERY SINGLE TIME. This AI future seems to be as much hot air as any of the over blown tech of the past 30 years.
MH getting all February today! lol
We’re going to get RAV4 robot taxis and like it. Granny can get in. So can junior. They’ll keep running no matter what.
I was surprised when Waymo went with Jaguar, a brand never known for reliability.
“If we can make it work on a Jaguar we can make it work on anything!”
Also Jaguar was/is probably desperate to have anyone using all those I-Paces.
The Waymo vehicles I see on my commute to work in San Francisco are indeed Jaguars. The Zoox “regular” cars are Toyotas and I also see those little Zoox robotaxis as well. Used to see Cruise cars as well before that company got shut down by GM.
Sienna seems like a good choice for a robotaxi.
Me too, but as someone who has now ridden in a Waymo, I appreciated being in a luxury car at that price point.
Tesla definitely knows more about robot taxis than anyone and they say the optimal vehicle shape for that purpose is the 2 seat coupe. By this infallible logic, the most perfect Toyota for Waymo is the MR2.
MR2-D2
These are the droids I’m looking for.
There is only one Black Gold, and that was by Soul Asylum. 🙂
I’m just glad our Demander-in-Chief realized that car factories can’t just be moved around like they were hotels a Monopoly board. They take years of careful planning before declaring bankruptcy like they were hotels in Atlantic City.
COTD, but it’s still early.
1,360 more days to go unless God or karma intervenes.
It only feels like a lifetime right?
I fear you are far too optimistic.
It’s clear the Commander-in-thief signed a deal with the devil. It’s the only explanation for his wealth and total lack of accountability for anything he has ever done, including felony convictions, while rising to the highest office in the land. Throw in the fact he hasn’t died from drugs, poor diet, lack of exercise, or a mock assassination attempt and it’s clear he traded his soul.
As if he ever had a soul. He did what his dad did before him: he sold the souls of his children at a loss and then declared spiritual, ethical, and moral bankruptcy. It was a tax write-off.
Yeah, then we get capt eyeshadow.
Like JDV is going to be any better. Maybe I care too much, but I am having trouble sleeping through the night these days. And it’s not my prostate gland waking and keeping me awake.
Agreed, but just the same we are living a shit show that is almost beyond belief at this point. So fuck them all.
Wish you the best outcome possible, despite these fuck heads.
Can’t say it much better that this:
https://youtu.be/Knrf7V-F-2I?si=aPfgqpMXEQFxbOBF
I watched a friend pour a beer over the head of Dave Pirner at a concert, the Old 97s I believe. Dave was far too drunk to notice.
I’ve never heard of Esperanza Spalding, but got-DAMN that’s a lot of notes for a bass player on co-lead vox!
…And she’s from PORTLAND?!
Esperanza Spalding is a gem!!
She’s a beast!!
I give zero credence to Tesla’s FSD claims. Vision only is not the correct solution for autonomy, it is the cheap solution. Tesla’s approach to development only works because they have a massive user base providing free training data at a scale that no other company is ever capable of reaching. Waymo is doing things correctly, with a properly fused multi-technology approach, with vast safeguards, and care and consideration for the ramifications of their actions.
Now let me be clear, despite its lower ceiling on capability, Tesla’s approach to FSD works perfectly fine up until a certain point. That point, as Tesla is showing, is right around the barrier to Level 3 autonomy. Vision only lacks a massive amount of objective truth data that Lidar, Radar, and Sonar all give, and while algorithmic learning can interpret a lot, there are countless cases that Vision-Only learning will never have a valid response to. What Tesla has managed to eke out of Vision only autonomy is genuinely an impressive feat of engineering and perseverance, however it is equally misguided as an absolute approach to full autonomy.
The thing is that it doesn’t work perfectly fine up to a point, though. It’ll crash into dividers, barriers, whatever’s handy, really. At this point Tesla can go fuck itself into the sun, but even their level 2 has always had a whiff of “but Your Honor, the logs clearly show that FSD was disengaged fully 833ms before impact, plenty of time for an attentive driver to respond and thus rendering us clearly not at fault or liability.”
And by “whiff of,” I mean – with possible slight exaggeration of the 833ms number – that is exactly their playbook for killing (perpetual) beta testers and getting away with it.
What Toyota for a Waymo? I’d say the HiAce, perfect for autonomous shuttles with lots of space. On a smaller platform, I want to say Camry but the Rav4 is probably the better choice offering easier ingress/egress for passengers.
Hilux! Indestructible and when it hits a million miles The Autopian can buy it as a project vehicle.
Based on the economic effects of the Turd on everything, and the drop in GDP, we are winning! Right?Love how he blames it on Biden, what a huge and lying turd.
We are so fucked, tariffs, or not. Screw those fools. YMMV of course.
But screw them a thousand times over. Stupid fucks.
This is Charlie Sheen level winning we got going on here.
RFK Jr. is investigating the curative properties of tiger blood-cocaine mixtures as we speak
We are not fucked. Go to Dairy Queen and get yourself a Blizzard, my man,
What country do you live in? lol
Because in the land of Buttfuckistan it seems pretty real, despite your hi intel reply…
This fool has both the negotiating skills of the worm in RFK’s brain, which also equals his so called business acumen…not to mention the diplomacy of an enraged rattlesnake…
I have known six year olds who could do a much better job, rather than fuck the whole world up by saying/doing ignorant shit…
He told us the tariffs would be gone by April lol
Don’t forget lower prices on everything as well as ending the war in Ukraine on day one…
Sorry/not sorry, this guy is beyond rational belief.
I meant that Get Stoney specifically said that tariffs would be gone by April.
Ok. And sorry for the rage. I grew up in the 1960’s and have lived/seen a lot of shit go down.
Recessions benefit no one, nor does stagflation. These clowns seem to want to ride us all down in the abyss, just like that idiot H. Hoover did. The majority of recessions have begun during GOP administrations.
The fact that this Turd declared himself “leader of the free world” is beyond comical. More like the Great Pumpkin.
Wishing for a miracle here, expecting none…
It would be hard to be wrong more often than Get Stoney if you tried. In one way, it is impressive. It has to take a lot of energy to maintain such strong defences against even the smallest rational thought.
It’s genuine faith.
Yup, and any potential interference with the bubble of self-delusion is met with shallow, mindless quips to help shore up the force field of ignorance. Anything of substance is bound to let reality seep in.
I said here, before the election, that we need a tough approach to things. A real loudmouth to shake things up.
It’s working. Here. Also, in Ireland, Italy, the Carib and beyond.
It’s ok that things are a bit screwy right now. That part was unavoidable in order to set it correct.
eta: I typed “set it right”, but I instantly knew it would freak all 5 of you out. lol
But as noted by others here. You are an idiot who is wrong about everything. And a fascist that should be treated as such whenever out in pubic.
Haha! Thanks, I guess!
You just called me an “Idiot” and a “Fascist”.
Neither of those terms apply, and the fact you feel comfortable calling a total stranger such nonsense (Fascism is impossible in the Western World. It would never happen) says a shit ton more about you than me.
How about that new Corolla? Dork.
If you supported a rapist, bigot, racist and fascist, and continue to spend your time liking his taint. You are a fascist. Or maybe you are just really into those other qualities. I do like the fact that you are stupid enough to claim that fascism would never happen in the Western world. It would be hard to highlight your complete and utter ignorance any better than you do with your own comments.
Have the day a fascist deserves.
Unplug your Comcast cable, kid. What you type is not real.
Buzzz goes the fascist gnat as its substance-free force field of delusion powers back up.
You get good weed, eh?
Remember when I said you should buy the S&P at 4900?
I did, because my investing time horizon is longer than Trump’s life expectancy
I bought T-bills because interest rates. The market being up today is illogical.
I’m in for a long time, but I could see the S&P being below 4k in the next 12 months.
Yeah, I just keep on buyin’ according to my asset allocation which over the long term is always the right thing to do even when it feels like pouring money in a hole.
I should clarify:
I allocate each paycheck to keep buying stocks and ETFs in a cash account along with my 401k. Nothing changes there. DCA always works out.
I recently sold my bachelor pad, and I received a large windfall. That is stuffed into T-bills.
The goal in the medium term is to build a house for cars on our property 🙂
Aaaaand, that is the point.
Other than China (fluid) and a few other key places for cheap-ass shit, they basically are.
Big picture-wise, does it matter if it is April or June? It doesn’t.
You aren’t seeing the forest.
I get that you are focused on the “personalities”, just like you do with Elon or Bezos. I get that.
It’s the wrong way to approach it all these days. Since you are old enough to know better, you should know better 🙂
Let us revisit this discussion June 1 when the tariffs’ effects on US supply chains start showing at local retailers.
Orders for Christmas goods are due now, and by some reports the orders are reduced significantly.
The numbers of container ships destined for US ports are down.
Reduced consumerism is probably a good thing, but I’m thinking empty shelves at big-box stores will not be a good look for this very image-sensitive administration.
It will actually be a very good thing. Not maybe for you or me in the short term, but in the long term, it’s better.
I can’t remember a time in life (maybe because it’s the internet) when people have been so impatient.
If you don’t see that part…scream away. That’s on you.
Hey, Jon Hamm drives a Maserati in “Your Friends and Neighbors.” ‘Course, it’s always giving him problems too.
I mean, he did get “rear ended” from the kid sleeping with his kid, so…seems appropriate.
Maserati has, for the last 20 or so years, felt like a company that made fancy feeling, expensive cars for people who don’t know anything about cars. Plus it doesn’t hurt that “Maserati” is just a fun word for people who own one to say.
Joe Walsh should get a no-cost lease on a Maserati every year for life for product placement.
Maserati is poor people’s idea of a rich people car, just like Trump is a poor person’s idea of a rich person. Tasteless, gaudy, and ultimately rather embarrassing.
I agree with your last sentence but i know of lots of rich people who enjoy both Maserati and trump. Being rich doesn’t have anything to do with intelligence or taste. Plus i know a lot of poor people who would never want to be seen in a Maserati as theyre tasteless, gaudy and embarrassing.
Correction, completely embarrassing.
Like the entire C-suite of my old company drove Maseratis. Based on that sample size, it is definitely the car of idiots that want to look and feel fancy.
I always felt like is Maserati the the car a well off guy buys for his trophy wife who knows nothing about cars. Not rich enough for a Bentley, but wants something more special than a Mercedes.
The Waymo car there is giving off a 2045 Previa vibe.
Mid-electric-engined minivan anyone?
The Alphard might make for a good Waymo taxi. The Sienna would also work but we already get those here so that’s no fun.
I second the Alphard as the premier choice for Waymoing. Preferably in the Executive Lounge trim.