Brazil Has 2.2 Million Big Commercial Trucks And No Clear Way To Electrify Them

When people talk about electrifying the world, there’s a hopefulness that often avoids the harsh reality that “the world” typically doesn’t include most countries south of the equator and the huge difficulties involved in transitioning the infrastructure in those places. One of those places is Brazil, which has a huge truck market and lacks the investment or resources to transition its fleet. Brazil is on the top of my mind this morning, but there’s enough Tesla news to shake an acarajé at, a promise from GM about its future workforce, and a bit of hopefulness about the next Detroit Auto Show.

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Trucking In Santa Maria?

Brazil is a massive country full of resources, exporting more than it imports. The primary way it moves its resources around the country and to ports is via truck because, unlike many other countries, Brazil has yet to develop much of a multi-modal transit system. Instead, heavy duty trucks travel hundreds or thousands of miles directly.

While there are numerous countries and companies attempting to convert large trucks to electric, the ranges involved typically connect transportation nodes (distribution centers to consumers, factories to ships, et cetera). In the near-to-medium term this isn’t a practical option for much of Brazil. There’s a new report from intelligence firm S&P Global that gets into the challenge:

The stimulus for electric vehicles from the Brazilian government is limited, and only large companies with environmentally friendly policies have adopted electric trucks. The forecast take-up of electric or alternative propulsion trucks is meager in the medium-term – with less than 1% of vehicles powered by alternative propulsion, as demonstrated in S&P Global Mobility’s latest commercial powertrain forecast.

Brazil’s road-intensive, diesel-dependent infrastructure has limited the use of electric trucks to short trips and urban deliveries. Standing in the way of further development are an underdeveloped recharging infrastructure, high vehicle prices (electric trucks are nearly four times the diesel truck price), long charging times, and the poorly constructed highway network – only 12% of roads are paved in Brazil.

The environmental impact of this is fairly obvious, and being able to convert a fraction of those trucks into something less polluting would be helpful in the global struggle against climate change. There is hope, however, as Brazil is an ideal place for bio-produced diesel fuels, biomethane, and natural gas. In fact, there’s a $2.44 billion deal to open a bio-diesel plant in the country.

Still, as with numerous transportation issues, merely changing the fuel source is not sufficient enough in the long-term. Again, from S&P:

The more rational use of transport with integration between modals reduces the costs of operation and improves the well-being of society. Structural change in transport must be the priority together with emissions control. The government might create incentives to boost initiatives for integration.

This is true in Brazil and it’s also true here. While our transportation system is robust, merely shuffling people into electric cars isn’t an entirely viable solution. Reducing the number of vehicle miles traveled is also a worthy goal.

GM Says It Sees EVs Needing Almost As Many Workers As ICE Vehicles

One of the big events on the horizon in the automotive industry are the end of existing labor contracts and the need to negotiate new ones. General Motors, for example, has to simultaneously renegotiate with both the UAW in the United States and Unifor in Canada. One of the biggest issues? A concern that EVs require less labor to build.

So I was intrigued to read, in an interview with Gerald Johnson, GM’s executive vice president of global manufacturing and sustainability in Automotive News, that maybe this isn’t the case? From the interview:

Have you heard concerns that building EVs may not require as many workers as building an internal combustion vehicle?

Of course, I’ve heard the concern. But as we continue to do our analysis, we see the employee base required to build an EV to be very similar to what it takes to build a comparable ICE product for the same market segment. So we think that we are safe in saying that we want to bring our employees with us and that we’ll be able to do that, because every EV still has doors, a windshield, seats, dash. It just has a battery instead of an engine.

We’ll see if that continues to be the GM trots out when they start negotiations. Reporter Lindsey VanHulle does a good job trying to get Johnson to address the related issues, so definitely give it a read.

Detroit Thinks It’ll Have A Bigger Show For 2023

Man, 2003 was a great year for the Detroit Auto Show (click this link for more photos like the one above), though 2022 was a little less exciting. New York, unfortunately, was the same way. Los Angeles was better, and that’s not just the shrimp-mania talking.

The Detroit Auto Dealers Association, the organization that runs the Detroit show, is upbeat about next year. Here’s another report from Automotive News with DADA’s reasoning:

“This year’s show represents the next step in its evolution and in the evolution of the industry itself,” auto show Chairman Thad Szott said in a statement. “Automotive technology is changing so rapidly; how do we make people comfortable with it? We’re planning for a show that not only embraces and educates about this new technology but offers an immersion into it. And with twice the number of brands participating, there’ll be no shortage of engaging with it.”

This seems hopeful, and it also sounds like a lot of indoor tracks. Wait for it…

The Detroit Auto Dealers Association, which runs the show, said the 2023 version will include a new indoor track for electric vehicles, more outdoor ride-and-drives and a new mobility forum featuring executives and politicians such as Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. They vowed “multiple vehicle debuts” and “double” the brands that participated last year, which was the first Detroit show to attempt an indoor-outdoor format.

Double the brands sounds good, though a large portion is likely to be local dealers. Auto shows are a great time and important for car culture and I’m hopeful there’s a way to keep them exciting and sustainable while also reflecting the reality that they’re expensive for automakers.

The White House Is Open To Giving Tesla Money For Chargers, But…

As discussed last week, the quirk in Tesla winning the charging plug war is that the White House and Congress literally earmarked billions of dollars for charging stations that use the CCS charging plug, as opposed to the NACS standard favored by Tesla (and about to be adopted by Ford and GM)

Alas, news on that front, per Reuters:

“Earlier this year, we developed minimum standards to ensure publicly funded EV charging is accessible, reliable, and affordable for all drivers, and we required interoperability to promote competition,” White House spokesperson Robyn Patterson said in statement to Reuters. “Those standards give flexibility for adding both CCS and NACS, as long as drivers can count on a minimum of CCS.”

Ahhh… hmm… oh….

So. If Tesla allows some minimum number of CCS chargers to its all-NACS superchargers then they get money? Or, maybe, they can just supply adapters? It’s unclear.

In other Tesla news, people who bet against Tesla (i.e. short-sellers) are taking a bath to the tune of $6 billion in 11 weeks. Tesla’s price dropped to the low $113 range earlier this year, but has bounded back lately. The news of Ford and GM getting together on NACS charging certainly helped.

What might not help? From The Washington Post via The Detroit News, is a big investigation showing that the number of Autopilot-related deaths might be much higher than imagined.

The Big Question

What should we prioritize: Alternative fuels, density/urban development, transportation infrastructure?

Photos: Volvo, Hyundai, Thomas Hundal, GMC