When it comes to planning summer trips, my family has been in an ongoing debate between driving and flying. Thankfully, I booked some of the flights before the War in Iran started. The rest of the trips? It seems like they’re going to be costly no matter what I do.
I suppose the silver lining for me is that none of my personal journeys are to California, where gas just shot up to above $6 a gallon. Some of that has to do with the War in Iran and the rest with some quirks specific to California. Average gas prices are up everywhere, of course, and it doesn’t look like it’ll be great for anyone.
The Morning Dump this week has been more dominated by quarterly financial reports than the war, and that includes the first-ever quarterly report from Stellantis. It’s, uh, it’s not great other than a windfall from tariff refunds. Ford’s report shows the company doing better, though it, too, will benefit from getting tariff money back.
You know who did great in Q1? Škoda! I know you’ve all been missing Škoda content.
Welcome To The New Fuel Crisis, Just Like The Old Fuel Crisis
According to GasBuddy, the average price of gas shot up to $4.31 a gallon today. That’s high. That’s the highest it’s been since the last fuel crisis that peaked in 2021 following the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
That’s a national average, though, and your fuel cost is going to depend a lot on where you live and what type of fuel you put into your car. I won’t get into crack spreads, but it’s gonna be a hard and long road for diesel owners for a while.
It’s going to be worse in California. It’s already worse in California, with prices going above $6 a gallon. On a national level, this is a direct result of the Iran War, which was started for… reasons. And while the United States has a lot oil, it’s more complicated than that.
For California, it’s way more complicated as Bloomberg mentions this morning:
California’s product supply is more challenging than for most of the rest of the US. No pipelines carry fuels into the state from the Gulf Coast, and the state has also seen two refineries shuttered since October 2025, eliminating roughly 20% of its capacity.
California is a bit of an energy island, and even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up tomorrow, prices aren’t going to immediately recover, at least according to oil market expert Phillip Verleger on his Substack:
California and the US West Coast can expect gasoline and diesel shortages soon. Extremely high prices (possibly above $10 per gallon) could be coming.
Several refineries in California have closed in the past year. The shutdowns have occurred as the state transitions away from gasoline. The transition is not expected to be easy, however. California Energy Commission Vice Chair Siva Gunda relayed this news to an audience on March 4, as OPIS reported:
“As we go down (in California refining capacity), this is not going to be a smooth transition,” Gunda said. “Demand is falling very smoothly between 1 and 2 percent. But when a refinery leaves, depending on the size of the refinery, it could be 15 percent, so you have that sudden imbalance.”
This is important for consumers, obviously, and for carmakers as well. Stellantis, Ford, and GM are banking on full-size truck sales and large crossovers to be profitable this year. Is that going to happen if $6 gas or $7 diesel becomes the norm outside California?
Stellantis Reports Profitable Q1, Large Tariff Refund
Prior to this year, Stellantis only reported half-year earnings. This means this is the first-ever Q1 report from the massive automaker known as Stellantis. Cool! Even better, the company is profitable:
“As we initiate quarterly reporting, the first three months of 2026 reflect the early results of our actions to return Stellantis to sustainable, profitable growth. The products we launched in 2025 have been well received and we’re confident that the 10 new vehicles planned for 2026 will build on this momentum. Our priority is clear: to put our customers back at the center of everything we do and we look forward to sharing more on this at our Investor Day on May 21 in Auburn Hills.”
Earnings actually beat estimates, in part due to a $450 million tariff refund that the company is expecting this year. A lot of the rest of the growth came from RAM trucks and V8 Dodge Durangos. Why did the market seem to react negatively to this good news? Automotive News explains:
Shares in Stellantis on the Milan stock exchange were down as much as 10 percent in early trading, on weak cash flows and investors’ concerns about the sustainability of the turnaround in the North American market.
Industrial free cash flow was more than €1.9 billion negative in the quarter, although an improvement from a cash burn of more than €3 billion a year earlier.
It was “more negative than expected,” Oddo BHF analyst Michael Foundoukidis said, noting that it only included €700 million in charges out of a total of €1 billion expected for this year.
Stellantis will probably have to do more than pull a rabbit out of a hat one time to move the market.
Ford Also Profitable, Expects A $1.3 Billion Tariff Refund
The biggest tariff refund winner appears to be Ford, which is reporting a $1.3 billion expected return this year.
Our strong first-quarter results and raised full-year guidance reflect the momentum of the Ford+plan,” said Ford President and CEO Jim Farley. “We built the foundation for a more modern, resilient Ford, improving cost and quality and building our world-class team. We are well prepared to deliver for our customers and shareholders as we enter one of the most intensive product, software and physical services rollouts in our history.”
Added Ford CFO Sherry House: “The path to higher margins is clear, and the first-quarter demonstrates those building blocks in action. The strength in the quarter reflects strong execution in our profit pillars, and we remain on track to deliver our full-year cost reductions. When combined with accretive recurring revenue from software and physical services and decisive actions to improve our EV performance, we are driving a fundamentally more profitable business, allocating capital with extreme discipline, protecting our balance sheet, and positioning Ford to deliver consistently higher returns.”
Ford is, comparatively, in better shape than Stellantis. Margins are pointed in the positive direction, there are fewer drags on the business, and F-150 production should be able to kick up in the second half of the year.
Škoda Is The Second Most Popular Brand In Europe This Year
For all the troubles at Volkswagen, its Czech subsidiary Škoda is thriving. Would you believe that it’s the second best-selling brand in all of Europe, behind only Volkswagen and, as of Q1, ahead of Toyota? See, I’m not (that) crazy!
The company is also profitable, and just had its best quarter from a financial standpoint in its history.
“We carried the strong momentum of a record 2025 into the first quarter of 2026 to deliver the highest Q1 operating profit in Škoda Auto’s history. For the first time, Škoda has become Europe’s second best-selling car brand — a milestone we can be proud of in a highly competitive market.
Get down with your bad self, Klaus!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
You ever discover a musician exists and you can’t imagine how you missed them? My new obsession is the latest album from the Icelandic jazz singer Laufey. That this is a thing, and that it’s apparently a thing popular with teenagers, is fascinating to me. I absolutely love it and have listened to the extended release of the album probably 100 times in the last two weeks. “Silver Lining” is my favorite track, which is very Patsy Cline in the absolutely best way.
The Big Question
How much did your last fill-up cost? If you have an EV, how much for your last full charge?
Top photo: DepositPhotos.com
Fuel in my part of Texas went back up from 3.39 to 3.69/3.79 at our local stations.
We charge our EV at DC fast charge stations almost exclusively. Those stations actually went down a bit in price the past 8 months as more stations opened and more competition has filled out.
I’ve been averaging 3.5-3.6 miles per kWh around town. with a $13 a month Tesla membership i can get prices as low as 16-17 cents a kwh at local stations, but 31 cents in the evening or 38 cents during the day.
I never completely fill the car, but my last 20-80% charge which is about 160 miles around town cost us about $7 with the tesla membership.
so my operating costs are running between 4.8 and 8.8 cents a mile since i avoid using the more expensive chargers that cost 50 cents a kwh or more, which would push my costs to 14.5 cents a mile. but our easiest to get charging usually runs 31 cents a kwh which is the 8.8 cents a mile.
so cost per mile as good as an 75+ mpg vehicle, or as bad as a 25mpg vehicle in my area.
I paid $2.54 for E85 in my truck the other day, and the price is basically unchanged now even sitting next to $4.99 regular and $5.99 premium.
Kind of crazy that my truck, which will struggle to reach double digit mpg on E85, is arguably the cheapest vehicle to drive per mile that I have right now.
E85! Living the Iowan dream.
Rarely makes financial sense, but when it does, it’s a nice alternative.
Best time to plant a tree was 30 years ago. Second best time is now.
But, we’ll collectively decide that buying a Durango V8 was the right choice, complain about the operating costs, continue to support the current system, and then blame someone else for the repercussions of our decisions.
Working from home the past 7 years has meant I drive give or take 1,500 miles a year. Unless gas goes up to Euro prices, I’ll always come out ahead. and if that happens, I’ll get an EV without hesitation,
TBQ:
Conveniently, I track all my mileage through Fuelio. My last fill up was $231.25(CAD) for 137.24L @ $1.685/L
The Excursion is a thirsty bitch.
“How much did your last fill-up cost?”
Truthfully, I don’t look, which is both a sign of privilege and resignation to the reality our president created for us.
I have learned that the 4Runner runs just fine on 85. But the GS350 still gets premium from a top-tier brand and that’s not an efficient car unless at cruising speed.
Serves me right for not going for some degree of electrical propulsion in one of the daily drivers.
So glad we traded the GX460 in January. The GV80 is much better, despite not being great (21 vs 14 mpg average.)
My Leaf plugs in at home overnight – and have never noticed any difference on our home electric bill, which has always been low anyway. A used Leaf is a great hedge in these, um, interesting times.
A 33% reduction in fuel cost is big, particularly when 14mpg is the starting point. I know someone whose wife runs around in a gx460 despite having a modified 90s LandCruiser as an off-road rig and utility trailer tower. I don’t get it. I’d much rather have something like the GV for the daily duties.
For me, picking 14mpg over a $900-1000/mo. new truck payment was a no-brainer. I’m WFH more than half the time.
Sure, I’d never trade in to save fuel, but if you were planning on doing so anyway that kind of increase in mpg would be nice.
A friend of mine bought a 1990s Ford Ranger V6. It gets close to 14 mpg. He’s glad to have it. He only uses it for truck stuff. Paid $2,500 for it and put some sweat equity into it to make it a daily. Well worth it. Sometimes he needs to do truck stuff, probably 2-3 times a month.
For everything else, he has 4-cylinder cars.
The wife loved the GX, but I always found it to be wasteful. Horrible mechanical issues at 163k, so good riddance.
For tomorrow’s TMD you might want to address the pay situation for the Rivian CEO. Media is reporting the sensationalized number of $403 million ($370 mil or so in stock options) but even the real number is pretty huge given that the company has never turned a profit.
I put $35 into my Lancia for about 6 gallons two weeks ago, but that was 91 non-ethanol. Peeking out the door, it’s $4.42 for regular down the block this morning.
I saw a guy post last night that the higher gas prices were not the result of the Iran war because the US did not get oil from Iran, and that the was was just an excuse to charge high prices. No point in even trying to argue with people about this.
Alone in his very own universe.
TBQ- I filled up the ’24 Integra for $48 on Saturday in SWFL (Chevron,10 gallons, 93 octane). I average about 31mpg between my suburban commute and weekend driving. The price for 93 has just clicked over $5, so I have that to look forward to.
$5.39/gallon in WA which seems to be the going rate for the last 1-2 weeks. I buy 15 gallons a month so I ain’t hurting. I think I’ll notice gas prices stinging the average person when everyone in my neighborhood stops remote starting.
It’s so incredibly hard for a president to actually affect gas prices, historically. But yet grandpa demento managed to find the “up” button on gas prices and smash it so hard it broke. For nothing.
Where the obnoxious “I did that!” stickers on gas pumps now that they’re actually fucking true?
I have been waiting for those stickers to appear. Hypocrisy puts out massively bitter pills sometimes.
If these were reasonable times, we could have a legitimate conversation about how now is the time to transition away from fossil fuel. Instead, even blue states are moving forward with more fuel subsidies in the form of ethanol grants. This isn’t the future, and this isn’t good. I understand, “but the farmers!” I really, truly do. They have a difficult job, and produce something we need. But burning 38% of our corn crop is not good stewardship of land or money. For more info, see Technology Connection’s video on YouTube from a month or two back on EVs.
Somebody really needs to thell the people pushing for ethanol grants about the fertilizer shortage that is also directly tied with the Iraninan conflict…
+1 on the Technology Connections video reference!
Add in the tariffs, and what you can get becomes just that much more expensive on top of it.
Fuel at my northwestern Va gas stations is around $4.15 a gallon this morning. I had 600 points on my Martins grocery card, so I got .60 cents off a gallon which I had to use by today. I filled up my small S10 and a 5 gallon can for $70. I won’t be driving much, or far, for a while…
My last fill up here in SoCal was for 6.6 gallons at Costco for $5.49 per gallon. I average 38 MPG in the Camry hybrid and can do better than that if I take it easy. My commute is 6 miles round trip though, so I’m fortunately less impacted by this than most.
Ugh. Fuel prices where I am had dropped to around 3.89 until I noticed last night that they were back up to 4.00 or even more, and diesel was easily two bucks more.
I’ve just recently scrapped my rusty-to-the-point-of-no-return diesel pickup. With the persistent high diesel prices before this mess, it was clear it was going to get replaced with a gasser someday anyway.
But, of course, it just wouldn’t be my life without questionable automotive decisions or just circumstances conspiring to induce awkward automotive choices — I find myself with a new grandchild just born, and living several states away. So at minimum there will be a car trip in the van which is mostly not great/not terrible for MPG.
But wait, there’s more! Just before this price run-up, I’d started the inspection and commitment process to once again bring a motorhome into the family garage, since we’ll be visiting the grandkid and family much more often. And it’s a big’un with a 525HP Cummins stuffed in the back. So there’s a trip in the van to Oklahoma City in the cards to pick up the beast, then drive it (with the van on a U-Haul trailer) either back home to northern Indiana and then back out roughly the same distance to Raleigh-Durham, or in a circle to Raleigh-Durham and then home, which is still roughly the same total trip.
No way around it, I’m going to be burning a lot of fuel in the month ahead. :facepalms:
My hearing is getting worse, every time someone yells Freedom, I’m hearing We dumb.
A quick look at the credit card history, and looks like the last time I fully filled the tank in the old Jeep was July 6, 2025, for $38.92. Since the gas light is on, I’m guessing the next time, probably in May, will be quite a bit more.
The Bolt is all over the place, anywhere from ~$20 for ~40kWh of fast charging on a trip to the desert a couple weeks ago, to ~$8 for ~50 kWh at home after the trip.
My last “fill” was a charge at a SuperCharger for $15 in California from around 15% to 80%. While I am not affected by the high gas prices in fueling my car literally everything relies on fossil fuels and diesel is at an all-time high even when adjusted for inflation in California anyway.
I think it costs me between $1-$2 to charge my car at night at home. Splitting that difference, $45 a month?
I have a Polestar 2 and and I only charge during super off peak hours. After the distribution charge and other stuff it’s like 12¢/kWh. My car has a 78kWh battery that gives about 250mi range, so a full charge costs $9.36.
My last full fill-up was $37 rounded up for my Miata a few weeks ago. I’ve been largely driving the Prius PHEV on full electric. I charge for free at work, and then charge overnight on 120, which should work out to about $1.11 per night.
I think I filled the Panamera up in Amarillo two weeks ago at $3.89/gal for 91 octane on my way back from Utah. Recharging the 500e for my daily driving is free due to a big solar panel system that generates a surplus of power.
I drive a Volt. A full charge is right around 14kW. Electric cost $.07/kWh here in Quebec. So an average of $1 per charge.
My average commute is 100km, 60 of which on electric. I’ll use about 1.5 litres of gas for the rest of the distance. Gas is running $1.90/l today, so about $1.35 in gas.
So I spend $2.35 a day ($1.75 US) or $.024CAD/km or $.038US per mile.
Quebec has such low rates. In Ontario overnight is ~$0.10/kWh. Plus delivery. I don’t know how Quebec does their billing, in Ontario we have a base fee that increases with useage as well as set rates for the actual electricity used. In theory the delivery charge covers your portion of the grid (so people who live in remote, spread out areas pay more than condo dwellers) while we all pay the same rate for the electricity we actually use.
Commercial/industrial pays a different rate.