(BLASTS DANCE HALL AIR HORN) The day we’ve been waiting for has arrived! Time to get on Twitter, which you pay for every month, and start hyping up the impending death of Ford and Chevrolet because the first Tesla Cybertruck has rolled off the assembly line in Austin, Texas. But… is this destined to be the Ford-killer Tesla fans want it to be, or a limited-volume novelty?
That leads off today’s morning news roundup, plus some interesting details about the “Detroit of Asia”; more on the weird EV market; and some more unfortunate Ford-quality news. It’ll give you plenty to think about; trust me.
Will The Cybertruck Be The Model Y, Or The Model X’s Falcon Doors?
By now, it’s impossible to count the number of times Tesla has proven its critics wrong (yes, including your humble author, who’s big enough to admit when that happens.) This company has a weird way of just figuring things out, or getting up and hitting back twice as hard when it’s knocked down. It’s simply not to be underestimated, and I mean that sincerely and as someone who’s the furthest thing from being a die-hard Elon Musk true-believer.
But there’s also been plenty of times when Tesla’s flown too close to the sun—usually when it tries to do something cool or experimental or unproven, and it ends being a boondoggle at some point. Maybe the best example I can think of is the Model X’s Falcon Doors. Musk wanted them to be like that because he thought they looked rad, but they ended up being costly to build, costly to operate and costly to repair. He’s even said he wouldn’t do that again. Or an even harsher example is when it thought it could automate humans out of the process of making the Model 3, only to realize that “building the machine that makes the machine” is much tougher than anticipated. Or Tesla’s contentious claims around self-driving technology.
So the question is, which way will the Cybertruck go? The “first” “production” Cybertruck rolled off the assembly line in Texas this weekend:
First Cybertruck built at Giga Texas! ???? pic.twitter.com/ODRhHVsd0t
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 15, 2023
And already we can at least see it has side mirrors, unlike the concept photos you see in the rest of this post. But how successful and capable of volume sales will it really be?
I think that if the Cybertruck had a more “standard” looking body made of aluminum and steel—think a Model Y or Model S, but in truck form—it’d be worthy of making Ford executives quake in their boots. But even Musk has tempered expectations around the Cybertruck by admitting that its stainless-steel body and unique angles have been extremely difficult to build—and he’s warned his customers that “real” mass production won’t actually start until next year.
Here are some recent takes on why this thing’s such a challenge. The WSJ, this weekend:
Musk has warned that producing new vehicles, such as the Cybertruck, would dent the company’s growth. Several plans have been put on hold, he said, as Tesla focuses on scaling output. Some of these shelved programs include building a semitrailer truck and an affordable, $25,000 EV, Musk has said.
Wired, on the “alpha” build of the Cybertruck:
In May, the German newspaper Handelsblatt began reporting on the “Tesla Files”: thousands of internal documents provided to it by a whistleblower. Among those documents was an engineering report that might give some insight into why the vehicle has taken so long to come to market. The report, dated January 25, 2022, which WIRED has examined, shows that the preproduction “alpha” version of the Cybertruck was still struggling with some basic problems with its suspension, body sealing, noise levels, handling. and braking.
[…] Handling was also a concern for the alpha Cybertruck. The report noted a number of issues, including “excessive mid-speed abruptness and chop,” “high head-toss accelerations,” and “structural shake.” It said that the truck experienced “excessive lateral jerk during low-speed maneuvering” and that it needed to address problems with steering refinement and body roll. The EV’s strafe mode, a feature that allows the wheels to turn to allow the car to “crab walk” sideways had “only basic functionality.”
And InsideEVs:
However, as Model Y handover events hosted at Giga Berlin and Giga Texas have shown last year, we shouldn’t expect Tesla to deliver more than a small number of Cybertrucks to customers – most likely Tesla insiders – at the event. Production is only beginning, and Elon Musk has warned that the Cybertruck ramp will be the most difficult and longest yet.
The executive previously said that initial Cybertruck production would start in summer 2023 and that volume production would follow in 2024, with the output expected to be limited until then. “This was a tough product to design and even tougher to build,” Musk tweeted in May.
I don’t doubt demand for the Cybertruck is there. I know plenty of people who reserved one. But I have a feeling it could be more of a low-volume, niche vehicle—like a supercar, really, a halo car—rather than something that will permanently crush the Ford F-150 like a lot of blue-check types on Twitter think it is.
And there’s nothing wrong with that! Tesla built a supercar. Good for them. I think that’s what the Cybertruck will end up being. But despite the company’s smash success this year, it still struggles with designing, ramping up and building new products and I’m not sure this stainless-steel apocalypse machine will do for them what the Model Y did.
It’s that outcome, or Tesla (and SpaceX) figure out some groundbreaking, revolutionary way to do stainless steel and the whole thing takes off like crazy. I would not completely put it past them.
Meanwhile, Ford Is The King Of Recalls
Meanwhile, Ford may not be too worried about the Cybertruck, but it’s got problems of its own. It’s still working overtime to deal with quality issues that cost it a lot of money last year. And a new analysis from Automotive News indicates Ford’s had the most recalls so far in 2023:
Through June, Ford had issued 31 recalls affecting more than 4.1 million vehicles in the U.S. In the same six-month period in 2022, Ford also topped the list, with 44 recalls covering more than 6.7 million vehicles.
Overall, the number of recalls of equipment and a broad spectrum of vehicle types — light vehicles, heavy trucks and recreational vehicles among them — in the first half of this year, 515, was relatively flat compared with the 519 in the same period in 2022. However, the 16.7 million recalled vehicles and equipment in the first six months of 2023 were 11 percent fewer than those recalled in the same period last year.
Of the recalls Ford issued through June, the largest involved a callback of nearly 1.3 million older model Fusion and Lincoln MKZ vehicles for rupturing front brake hoses. The smallest recall — issued in March — covered 18 F-150 Lightning electric pickups after the automaker identified a potential battery cell manufacturing defect that caused one of the vehicles to catch fire a month earlier.
Ford topped the recall list in 2022 and 2021, also. For the first half of 2023, second place went to Stellantis, followed by BMW (though its 154,717 cars recalled were dwarfed by Stellantis’ 1.7 million.)
Ford has been making aggressive moves to fix its quality issues and the surge in recalls may be a part of that:
While Ford appears to be leading in the number of recalls, Michael Brooks of the Center for Auto Safety said it’s “hard to explain” why.
“We don’t have any information to suggest that Ford’s quality and their process is any worse than any other automaker at the moment,” said Brooks, who is executive director of the consumer advocacy group. “The more recalls to us, in a way, means that they’re protecting their customers, but at the same time, it certainly could indicate a lapse in quality.”
I’ve been reading a book about how Toyota handled its unintended acceleration crisis and in the wake of that, General Motors’ ignition switch mess and the Takata airbag nightmare, you just see a lot more vehicle recalls than you did 10 or 15 years ago. There’s a few ways to look at that, right? It could be seen as being tough on defects and making sure customer problems get fixed.
On the other hand, nobody wants their car in the shop—especially when parts are in short supply these days—and it’s just not a great look. It’s a costly one for the automakers, too. You know this is a crown Ford is eager to relinquish soon.
More Data On Our Weird EV Market
I’m definitely not one of the folks sounding the death knell for EVs before they really get off the ground. As I’ve written here and elsewhere, I think adoption “slowing” in America is a symptom of too-high costs and too-scarce public charging, mostly.
But it’s a weird market more than one in a downturn. Here’s Automotive News with more data:
New EV registrations rose by a healthy 68 percent in the January-to-May period to a record 447,514 vehicles. But about half of the increase came from market leader Tesla, the data shows.
Hot EV brands from last year — including Ford, Kia and Lucid — are now cooling as Tesla continues to sell 6 of every 10 EVs in the U.S.
Additionally, those that entered the market with some fanfare, including Cadillac and Porsche, are near the bottom of the 25 brands appearing in the latest registration data.
Overall, EVs rose to a 7 percent share of the U.S. light-vehicle market in the first five months of the year from 4.6 percent a year earlier. But analysts see tougher days ahead as consumers balk at relatively high prices and interest rates.
“EV sales records will continue to be set and EV growth will continue to outpace overall industry growth, but the days of 75 percent year-over-year growth are in the rearview mirror,” Cox said. “The hard-growth days are ahead.”
Emphasis mine there, because I like how that’s phrased. Basically, EV sales are up year-over-year, just not at the crazy rate they were for a while. Take Kia, for example; registrations of both the EV6 and Niro EV are down nearly 30% compared to last year and it’s losing overall market share.
Hyundai is doing a little better overall, in part because it’s “been more aggressive than Kia in offering customers lease deals that incorporate a $7,500 federal EV discount.” (The two companies are corporate siblings that share hardware, but they’ve very separate in product planning, marketing, sales strategies, and things like that.)
Also from that data: Nissan’s been flat due to the death of the Leaf and slow Ariya registrations; Lucid is behind yearly forecasts; Rivian’s actually doing quite well but seems constrained by production capacity as a small startup; and the Porsche Taycan and Tesla Model S are way down.
The Volkswagen Group’s a bit perplexing to me at the moment. The Taycan’s great—it’s shit-fuck-crazy fast, for lack of a better term—but when was the last time you heard anything about it? Or the Audi e-tron cars that were among the most credible early Tesla competitors? I think VW’s getting its house in order on the production and software fronts. In the meantime, it’s probably holding off on big new moves until it does.
Also, a major winner this year? BMW, whose i4 and iX models posted a 15x increase compared to last year. Not bad, BMW. I’m getting an iX next month and am eager to tell you all about it.
The point is, it’s best to look at this market as a long-game one, with all the ups and downs you see with any new technology and the broader auto industry as a whole. I’m not going to start writing obituaries after one or two questionable quarters—not with all the battery investments happening in the U.S. alone that will eventually drive prices down.
Thailand Rises In The EV Era
Did you know Thailand is considered “the Detroit of Asia“? I actually did not! But it makes sense. It’s Southeast Asia’s largest auto manufacturing hub, not just from car plants but suppliers, powertrain plants and more. Besides cheaper (but now very skilled) labor than other countries, it maintains steep tariffs on imported vehicles, both of which have led to a very robust local manufacturing ecosystem.
Now, not only is it becoming a giant manufacturing hub for EVs—especially from Chinese brands—demand for those cars is also skyrocketing there too. That’s also another big threat to the Japanese automakers, who have long dominated in Thailand but are now lagging on the EV front.
Here’s Bloomberg on why Thailand’s a place to watch:
The nation has already attracted 75 billion baht ($2.2 billion) from the EV industry, led by a slew of Chinese investments from BYD Co., Great Wall Motor Co. and SAIC Motor Corp. Changan Auto Co. and GAC Aion New Energy Automobile Co. are set to soon finalize their investment plans, and Chery Automobile Co. is also in talks.
Companies investing at least 5 billion baht in EV manufacturing can be exempt from the 20% corporate tax rate for three to eight years. Additional incentives for key EV parts production can get a 50% discount on taxes for a further five years.
The next step is to lure battery makers amid stiff competition from the US and Europe, which have rolled out programs like the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act to build a domestic battery industry.
To that end, a multibillion-baht subsidy package is in the works and will be put to the new government for approval, says Narit Therdsteerasukdi, the secretary general of the Thailand Board of Investment, which oversees foreign investment into the country.
Remember, all of those Chinese automakers have global ambitions, so moves like this are just the start.
Your Turn
Where do you think the Cybertruck will net out? One on every corner like the Model Y is (depending on where you live, obviously) or destined to be Tesla’s dystopian-looking supercar?
I don’t know what to make of the CyberTruck.
When it was initially announced, Tesla and its founder were seen very differently. I’m not saying they didn’t have their critics (and irrational haters), but both the company and Elon were seen in a much more positive light. Tesla’s cars were shedding their reputation of shoddy build quality — they were becoming hip tech accessories. Elon’s other companies (particularly SpaceX) were doing exciting things. Sure, the company (and the guy) had their share of critics, but a LOT of people were pretty excited about what both had to offer. Plus it was stupid-easy to put down a deposit on the truck — wasn’t it like a hundred bucks? and refundable?
Needless to say, a LOT has changed in the ensuing three-and-a-half years — most notably for this discussion: Elon’s public perception. He still has his share of fans, of course, but the discourse around him has been negative, especially after his purchase of Twitter (I am not a Twitter user, so I haven’t been following his shenanigans there, so I can’t speak from experience).
But to bring it back around, I expect that many CyberTruck deposit-holders got wrapped up in the excitement of the announcement. They may have missed the boat on the Model 3 (or even were happy Model 3 customers) and wanted to be a part of the next big thing. A $100 deposit is a small price to pay for a ticket to the future if they so choose to participate… and if not, well they’ll get the money back. But now this truck is like driving around town in a rolling blue Twitter checkmark. To bystanders, the driver of such a truck is saying: “Elon is my homeboy.” I feel like many people are currently rethinking their desire to make such a statement today.
There’s also the matter of delays for both this and self-driving, always expected to be fully functional by the end of the year, every year. And the subtle changes in what this vehicle promises: the novel exoskeleton structure became a unibody with stamped steel body that is called an exoskeleton, the laser wipers were replaced with a big wiper blade, and the windows were not as tough as claimed. Now, we’re hearing about all the issues experienced well into development, and this sounds like it’s going to have awful ride quality and handling, too.
I didn’t put down money because the bed seemed less useful and it looked hideous, but the $40k price for a long range EV pickup was awfully tempting. I get why people put money down. I also get why a lot of that won’t be converted to orders.
I think the current Cybertruck will be the Model X, while a new, smaller, more conventionally constructed “truck” will be the volume player like the Model Y. So, I am betting on “history rhyming” as Mark Twain would say.
Tesla should just make a regular truck that happens to be a Tesla.
Rivian has already had trucks on the road for a few years, including in commercial use. Also, the company is run by adults.
As an investor with a minor stake in Rivian, I am really encouraged to see all of the Rivian Amazon vans lately.
So even Lordstown has produced more
Happy to hear Mel Brooks of the Center for Auto Safety. He knows merchandising.
When I was 5 years old I drew a truck like this at school. The teacher sent me home with a note. Wonder if that ever happened to numb nuts?
This piece of fecal matter violates all the tenants known regarding common sense.
“That boy ain’t right” comes to mind. Repeatedly. And this guy wants to be my Latex salesman? I think not.
1970’s vision of the future. So 50 years outdated now.
What did the note say?
Something about being allowed to ride the short bus…
I predict that the Cybertruck will be a flop. First of all, there’s absolutely no way that the initially advertised starting price will be anywhere near $40K. The Model 3 has been in production for five years and still starts at around $40K before the tax credit. There’s no way that they can (profitably) sell an entirely new, needlessly complex vehicle with a brand new production line and tooling that requires vastly more resources to produce for anywhere close to that amount. I’d expect a starting price of $60K; in practice it’ll likely be closer to $70-80K. As we’ve seen from both Tesla (Model S/X) and other manufacturers, the top end of the EV market is getting saturated and there isn’t a lot of room for growth. A lot of the “1.5 million pre-orders!” were predicated on the $40K starting price and low barrier to entry ($100 deposit, rather than $1,000+ previously). I have sincere doubts that they will translate into sustainable, mass market sales.
This is in addition to the other issues that have been discussed ad nauseum. Its design is polarizing (I personally think it’s hideous and ungainly). The specs haven’t been confirmed. It’s a needlessly complicated design that’ll likely be difficult to build and repair. They’ve never built a vehicle like this before, and the Wired report points to serious issues with the most basic underlying engineering. Not to mention that Rivian, Ford and soon GM offer fierce competition that appeals to a broader audience aesthetically and will likely be significantly more reliable and similarly priced. Detroit isn’t ceding the truck market, even if they have to sell the pickups at a loss initially. Will Tesla build and sell some? Sure. But I honestly don’t see this being anything more than a niche product.
As a truck, it’s useless. All electric trucks share range degradation problems while towing and hauling, which is a big deal for a lot of buyers, but the Cybertruck body panels are not going to handle daily driving well either
I really think they will learn some lessons with this one and apply them to a simpler, cheaper vehicle maybe based on current Model 3 architecture. It’ll probably still look weird which I personally think is on purpose, so it is not seen as a competitor to traditional pickups that they have no chance of competing with.
Anyone who has worked with stainless steel will tell you trying to stamp body panels with the stuff is a nightmare. Many stainless alloys are springy, meaning that you have to over end the part so when it’s out of the press, it springs back to the final shape.
It takes a lot of trial and error to get the tooling to work, but then it seems some voodoo lady somewhere pokes her doll and suddenly it stops working.
As for recalls. I had a GM during right after the ignition fiasco. It seemed that any issue they found became a recall instead of a TSB or a customer satisfaction campaign. I found that many issues that had a recall back then did not need to be.
AFAIK they are using the same alloys a s SpaceX, probably so Musk can buy them from himself through SpaceX.
Otherwise known as: “it’s way too goddamn heavy.” Which was always known to be a problem. You can’t build a Hummer EV competitor that doesn’t weigh as much as the Hummer EV. Which required chopping off acres of metal to replace it with plastic to get under 10,000lbs.
Cyberflunk went the exact opposite direction, loading the chassis up with the heaviest metal they could find. (Know why auto manufacturers use aluminum over steel where they can? Because 6061 aluminum weighs 2720kg/m^3, and stainless steel weighs 7480kg/m^3!)
I calculated a reasonable estimate of the Cyberflunk’s body weight a while ago, but I can’t find it. Suffice to say, it was more than an entire sedan. I remember that. Just for that stainless steel shell.
Ask our captive suspension engineer how you handle a vehicle that’s over 12,000lbs dry and is supposed to be in the hands of the unwashed masses. I’m pretty sure he’ll just give you a horrified stare.
Bluntly, this is pure fantasy. It’s not a supercar. Maybe a halo at best, but to be a halo car, it needs to be world-class in every regard. Build quality, materials, road characteristics, and so on.
When your ‘beta’ version still has major body control problems and you can’t get the doors to seal? Yeah. No. That’s not a halo car for anyone but die-hard cultists. And because Elmo, you can outright forget the very necessary changes. Those being: just make the damn body aluminum. But nope. That will not be permitted, because Elmo personally designed it (or so he says. He says a lot of things that aren’t true.)
And tire wear, dear gods. Buy stock in whoever the OE supplier is.
Would any non-recalled Ford products please raise their hands?
No, seriously. Has Ford built any cars in the past 3 years that haven’t been recalled at least once?
I’m sorry, but what? No. That is not the conclusion you can reach from the number and size of recalls. Not at all. I’m sorry, but for the love of all that is holy, apply basic logical thinking skills. If Ford’s recalled every single car they’ve built, but the assembly line isn’t the source of the problems, then the only conclusion one can reach is that the engineering process is worse than other automakers.
You can’t be the worst of the worst without something being horribly rotten in the process.
This one warrants some additional context, to really drive home how bad Ford is.
FCAtlantis has had some really big recalls, sure. But most of them have been minor. 331k Grand Cherokees due to the assembly line getting rotation wrong sometimes. (The actual number of affected vehicles is much lower; the recall is ‘inspect and repair if affected.’) 340k Ram 2500-5500’s recalled due to the potential of a fire risk concurrent with an electrical failure (meaning you have to have an electrical fault first, and then it might have a fire.) Faulty HPFP due to supplier problem. Some intermediate shafts improperly torqued on the assembly line. Fairly typical things for early lifecycle.
Ford? More than 1 million cars recalled due to fire risk as the failure mode. 2.5 liter engines leaking oil and gas vapors that can ignite. Which is bad enough. Except this is the second time they’ve been recalled for the exact same issue! Yeah. That’s right. Ford keeps doing recalls that have to then be recalled. 1.3 million cars recalled for the brake hoses rupturing from normal use. Nearly every automatic transmission recalled because a loose bolt inside might prevent the park pawl from engaging. 2023 F150’s recalled because the passenger airbag doesn’t deploy correctly.
These are not “early lifecycle” problems. Doubly so when recalls are repeated. That is a clear indicator that something is deeply wrong with Ford, top to bottom.
“It’s the economy, stupid!” Well. It is and isn’t. The economy is absolutely a factor. But the Taycan starts at $93,000. Starts. It can spec out well over $200k. Cadillac’s got the Lyriq (which the bloom came off of quickly) at $60k, and the Celestiq at “if you have to ask, you can’t afford it.”
So it’s pretty much expected that they’re going to be bottom in sales volume. Especially since the XT4 now has all the Lyriq goodies. The XT4 costs about half the Lyriq, and by all accounts, is doing very well for Cadillac. The Celestiq, well, uh… has anyone even seen one yet?
And Porsche? Interest rates screwed them over something fierce, but dealers still can’t keep low-spec cars on the lots. Taycan was never going to be a volume car. Lightly used customer order bright green Turbo S CrossTurismo at $180k? Sure, it’s gonna sit. But base models in basic colors? Still sold before they hit the lot.
There is no reality in which the Cyberflunk’s math works out as a mass-production or even full production vehicle. I don’t care how much they sunk into tooling and real estate.
It’s too expensive to manufacture.
It’s guaranteed to be too heavy to drive, to the point of being illegal on many roads.
It’s too polarizing to have mass appeal. Even before Elmo’s racism and anti-semitism.
It’s terrible at being a car and terrible at being a truck. (Seriously, think about it. How do you access the bed from the side? Uh-huh.)
To be fair (to be faaaaiiirrr), the lifted pickups that fill the parking lot where I work don’t seem to worry about that, either. I’m 6’1″, and there are a lot of these pickups with bedsides at or above shoulder height, including those driven by shorter people. Of course, the CT will be much harder to lift and will be an absolute mess to off-road (and will destroy trails with its weight), so it probably should consider a more usable bed.
Elon is offering an optional Cyber Ladder to access the bed. “But only pedos use a bed anyhow.” (Elon)
Also, to elaborate on why the Lyriq cratered, it’s really pretty simple and obvious.
You can’t get one.
People want GM SuperCruise (until they find out they have to pay an annual subscription after 3 years.) To get that, you need to drop a minimum $70k on a Lyriq. Soccer Moms can’t do that now. Which doesn’t matter. Because GM isn’t building any of them with SuperCruise. And hardly any Lyriqs at all.
There are 23 Lyriqs listed within 100 miles of me. Of these 17 cars, zero have GM SuperCruise. Only one is actually in the dealer’s hands – the rest are “in transit.” 10 of them have the price listed as ‘ask’ AKA “we want $10k over MSRP to even talk.”
There are 66 XT4’s in the same radius. Over 40 are already on dealer lots. If you really want SuperCruise, there’s 83 XT6’s to choose from. (But you still can’t get SuperCruise even on RPO due to parts availability.)
I helped my mom shop for a car a few months ago and a base Macan was on her list. She specifically wanted her car to be white with an interior that was any color other than black (she’s not an enthusiast-be nice everyone). It was impossible to find her one. New base Macans were gone within a couple hours of being listed…certified ones that have only been owned for a couple of months pop up constantly, but they usually sell for as much as original MSRP or even more because Porsche’s certified program is so good.
Dealerships leverage the additional years of warranty into higher prices. To put it bluntly-there are no “deals” to be had on Porsches right now. The only ones I’ve seen (and I keep an eye on them because I’m a nerd and I love Porsche) are certified higher tier lash gen Macans. I’ve seen a couple certified 2016-2018 Macan GTS and Turbos with about 50,000 miles on them and clean carfaxes pop up in the 45-55 range.
Is one of those a better buy than a new base one? I’d lean towards yes, as you’re getting way more car and a base Macan is literally just a lifted GTI. But you’re also spinning the used German car wheel, so be ready for pain down the road. Anyway, I wound up finding my mom a barely used Audi SQ5 that spent the first year of its life as a dealer loaner. It’s pretty cool for what it is and was a good deal (I think they sold it to us for around 50 flat) but Jesus tap dancing christ what the hell has happened with German luxury car steering?
I’ve also driven a few newer BMWs and in both the Bimmers and Audi the steering might as well be a goddamn simulation. It feels like the steering rack connects to a bowl of pudding.
There are deals (I’m Cayenne shopping, I need the towing) but they’re not going to be found on most Porsches. You can get some screaming deals on off-lease CPO Cayennes, but, also put those deals into context.
A screaming deal on a 2020 Cayenne with under 10k miles is still $67,000 before tax. Original sticker was $84k. You can get a 2019 Cayenne E-Hybrid with 28k miles for $65k – nearly $35k off the original sticker! Or one with 40k miles for $62k.
But it’s still a $60,000+ proposition. At used car interest rates approaching double digits. Which is why there’s screaming deals on Cayennes, and a lot of them – people can’t afford them. So there’s 28 CPO E-Hybrids alone in 500 miles of me. And over 100 base models. Two dozen Cayenne Turbos. You get the idea.
I too encounter a Cayenne deal every now and then, but I’m in the same boat. Even if I needed to buy right now (and I don’t) I wouldn’t unless I could pay cash…and I don’t have 60 grand in liquid sitting around that I’m fine with burning. Interest rates are prohibitive, and even before everything went to crazy town financing wise used car APRs were still not great outside of certified specials that got run once in a blue moon.
Also, would you trust a PHEV Porsche? I’m not sure that I’d want to deal with German hybrid technology off warranty, especially when it’s paired with ICE powertrains that are already complex as hell and the amazing but delicate PDK. I’ve heard about PDK repairs and replacements costing 5 figures. Porsche has also stated that the technology is meant to improve performance and not efficiency anyway…so it’s not like you can a significant MPG bump or an all electric range that’s particularly good.
Honestly I’d be hoping to find a certified version of the new Cayenne S in 3-5 years….because somehow they’re putting V8s in them again, and like I said….Porsche’s certified program really is excellent.
.…although come to think of it I believe it’s an Audi sourced V8 and those 4 liters have a colorful reputation to say the least
My local knows my rules, and they email probably once a month to apologize because all they’ve had is what I call ‘lease boxes.’ Black or white over black, guaranteed slam-dunk auction sellers. (They used to do a LOT of Cayenne leases around here. A LOT.) I also have a hard-line stance on pre-2018 because of the haptic button change. A mechanic doing nothing but button repairs on those could probably afford a new Cayenne Turbo.
And of course, Porsche doesn’t do financing specials. Lease specials, sure. But financing? Oh no, that’s for the poors. You don’t want to be seen as poor, do you? Mhm.
As far as trusting the Cayenne E-Hybrid, TBH, jury’s very much out on that. Porsche has their own special sauce, and unlike other manufacturers, parts availability is usually less of a concern. You can still get nearly any 996 parts you could ever need, new from the dealer. PDKs are always a 5-figure job because of the complexity, which isn’t helped by needing to drop the whole damn subframe on Cayennes. But taken care of, they’re pretty stout gearboxes. (It’s the transfer case that usually gets nuked there, oft by people cheaping out on tires or being lazy about air pressure.)
But reliability? Whoof. Talk about an open question. Any of the Porsche forums is generally frequented by textbook Stockholm Syndrome (“I only had to pay $25k to rebuild the trans on my $125k car! What a steal!”) so getting real answers ain’t happening there. And the E-Hybrid was a mix of lease and greenwasher for Cayman/911 owners. (Go ahead. Find an E-Hybrid in any color but white, grey, or black.)
But when you know how to read between the lines like I do, things get real fuzzy, real fast. The 14-16/15-18 HV pack? Part 958-611-590-11. Not available retail. “Oh shit, they’re eating batteries like candy.” List $15,100, sale $13,300 at Suncoast. But Suncoast also says it’s special order, VIN required, with a 3-5 day lead time. “Wait, 3-5 days with a VIN? Probably nothing worse than protecting cell supply for new builds then.” It’s impossible to find good data on it beyond “good fucking gods is that repair expensive.” There are however, an uncomfortable number of reports of HV battery problems ranging from cable failure to intermittent problems that required Stuttgart’s help to even troubleshoot. Sometimes it’s battery, sometimes it’s (I shit you not) brake booster relay.
And you seriously, seriously want to stay at least 50 miles away from the haptic button Cayennes. At all costs. I was not joking about mechanics being able to afford new ones off those alone. You have to replace the whole dash control unit with a new $2000 part. Or the A/C switch module at a cost of $1100.
Nightmare fuel. Thanks for sharing that info, I had no idea. I’ll cross all haptic Porsches off my “potential next car list”, which is getting pretty slim. I’m fairly certain it’s going to come down to an Integra Type S or IS500 at this point. They have very different missions but overlap in where it counts…Japanese luxury quality mated with performance.
We can always count on rootwyrm to provide some much-appreciated context and a little bit of emphatic rage.
I was about to say: like, there’s a reason why Caddy and Porsche aren’t making volume numbers, and it’s $$$$$$$$$$. Volkswagen should be the brand carrying VAG’s EV sales in volume, but they’ve decided to mess up their interiors and roll out a meh product that folks aren’t super hyped about. Like, where’s the ID.Buzz that we were stoked about? It feels like they’ve missed the hype train entirely on that one, and the other ID models have withered away like a dry fart in the wind.
I do see quite a few Taycans rolling around Austin, FWIW. More of them keep showing up in the local PCA. That one IS my pick of that price bracket, unlike the lower-priced VW models. Where there’s money and OK-ish access to charging infrastructure, there’s still demand for the Porsche EV.
“excessive lateral jerk during low-speed maneuvering” also sounds like Elon driving through his Las Vegas tunnel.
The cybertruck will be for Megaforce co-players.
The more likely truck will be one of known brands (GM, Ford, RAM, Toyota) using the SupperCharger network which is a good thing that came of out Tesla.
Could you post a link to the Threads official Cybertruck announcement?
(Note: I’m not actually in support of the Zuck media monopoly, either. Just watching Twitter collapse and laughing a bit.)
re: Zuck and Musk—those two cowards need to stop talking about fighting and actually fight. Is there a way for both to lose? Either way, let those two nerds take slaps to the face for our entertainment, dang it. Maybe one of the weak slaps will knock some sense into ’em (doubt it, though).
The shitty thing is that they’re gonna monetize it if they do. They already have the UFC dreaming about having the best-selling fight ever. If they fight, we really need to pull a Morbius. Nobody watch, then get them to do it again because we promise we’ll watch this time (then don’t watch).
It’s really for the best. The fewer people paying attention to them the better for all of us.
Put up more barriers please. Paywall is a good thing in this one instance.
Unless they pick a decent charity, that’s one you can pirate with no qualms.
Pretty sure that Zuck is up for the fight (because he knows he would win). Elon is the one trying to get out of it (because he knows he would lose).
I don’t like either of them, but let’s not “both sides” this one.
Blaming his mom for saying no really is a new low.
Zuckerberg trains with the absolute best jiujitsu guys in the world, he would likely choke Musk out in seconds.
If there is any quaking going on over the Cybertruck, it isn’t Ford. It would be GMC- more specifically the Hummer sub-brand. Even IF there’s any chance of the Cybertruck coming in anywhere close to its original price targets, in the end its still more of a statement vehicle than a traditional truck competitor. So any cost savings that position it under the Hummer truck will be worrisome to GM, which needs to add some smaller sized (think H3 sized Wrangler/Bronco competitor) to their stable.
On a side note, why are we calling someone who shares internal company work materials regarding product testing and development a ‘wistleblower’? I get it if they are uncovering some heinous crime, but the crime here seems more on the part of the person who is likely violating their NDA.
The whistleblower was providing evidence that a lot of complaints and issues were being deliberately underreported/covered up, and they also included documents that suggested the Cybertruck was not nearly as settled and production-ready as Tesla was claiming. This was a whistleblower situation, not just a leak.
Arguably, the Cybertruck engineering delays weren’t necessary to include, but, given the history of stock manipulation allegations, made sense.
I get where you’re coming from- I just feel like it’s someone trying to air dirty laundry, because let’s face it, to some extent this same exact dialog goes on with most any ground up vehicle development. I’m no Tesla groupie, but I feel like Ford, GM and others would be facing these same exact situations. Perhaps the only reason they might not have AS MANY struggles is due to the extreme platform and development sharing that they can leverage.
In the end, I don’t need to see internal documents about shudder or handling in early testing, because, let’s face it, if it was well sorted, it would already be on sale. So it seems obvious there are development issues still being sorted. That’s where I was coming from on it.
Now if they were saying they were almost ready to go, but were scrambling to resolve problems with batteries that were connecting to the web and conspiring to foster uprisings in third world countries, I think we’d deserve to know.
But chassis tuning? Meh. Just seems to give permission to everyone else who fancies themselves a ‘whistleblower’.
But the rest of the data dump was actual safety concerns and the like on currently available products. Argue against the one part, maybe, but this is still a whistleblower. Maybe there were additional documents that didn’t necessarily meet the criteria, but it was done to expose unethical practices and not just to share secrets or whatever.
Again, though, I think the misleading info about how close to production they were could arguably fall under the umbrella of stock manipulation. The engineering problems they had not solved were really basic and necessary, while Musk was saying it was just a matter of getting their press running at capacity. These engineering reports weren’t from early development, but from last year, while Musk was saying the CT was going to be available by the end of that year (which didn’t happen, for reasons outlined in the leak).
I have so many people to msg today. They have been telling me that the Cybertruck has been in full production for 2 years now. One of the guys said there have been customer deliveries for a year now, though he couldn’t find one IRL.
I think I went to elementary school with one of those guys. His dad worked for Nintendo and got him a copy of Super Mario 4, but he wasn’t allowed to play it with me.
Oh cool, I’m gonna get a Thai Coney Dog, chase it with a Vernors, then cruise down some extremely potholed streets to catch some Roller Derby. It’s that kind of Detroit, right?
You may be onto something with “Thai Coney Dog”
It’s too bad Toyota owns the name Highlander because, when it comes to the Cybertruck, there can be only one.
I get they built just one but how long until there’s an actual production line spitting one out every X minutes?
That’s right now.
Although currently X is a very, very large number.
Ford IS the recall king however recalls have risen across the board due to manufacturers insistence on dumping very comp!ex systems in vehicles that are not ready for prime time. Would love a car where I could simply delete the nanny features like lane assist, etc.
Great news for Tesla. Electric trucks are on a weird spot right now, their ICE counterparts are way cheaper and are actually pretty reliable. Unless you want to be “unique” and have something different, why someone will buy an electric truck? The cybertruck just scream look at me and that’s what they are intended for. I would love to more people be able to afford electric trucks but their prices are outrageous. In my subdivision, every other house has some sort of F150/RAM/Silverado. I guess if I ask them about electric trucks, they will not be interested.
I still think the Cybertruck is going to end up being Tesla’s Spruce Goose. They actually built one of those, too…
Agreed. Rocket boy has bigger fish to fry.
I have had similar feelings, but my thought is it will take about 3 years for the Cybertruck to actually start failing. My assumption is after they sell about 60k Cybertrucks the market won’t want them anymore. The 1.5mil reservation number is an outright lie, but there are plenty of Tesla fans that actually plan on getting these because Tesla+Truck+new product = Clout with a blue check. CT will sell great to begin with, but after the well off fanboys buy them I don’t see a lot of demand. Not quite spruce goose, more like Chevy Vega
So I clicked on the Tesla pic to see a more close-up version and immediately wondered, why are there a bunch of people holding their two index fingers together? The google search indicated it’s a tic toc trend (haven’t we had enough of those?) indicating that someone is nervous.
So, Tesla, why are SO many of the people who actually built this thing nervous about this POS?
It’s not 2 index fingers. It’s index to thumb, which apparently is supposed to look like the roofline of the Cybertruck.
Looks like the single, huge wiper is still there. I thought it was going to get “lasers?”
I wonder if the Cybertruck will be mostly delivered in an almost entirely different form. Since they went away from the exoskeleton concept, they could probably make some significant changes to the exterior panels to save some money.
I still have no idea how that steel shell can pass safety regulations, but maybe it’s got better crumple zones than the angles suggest.
Full Self Driving ™ will prevent accidents so crumple zones aren’t needed.*
*This is parody
It is heavy enough that it will be classed as a medium duty truck, and will not need to pass safety regulations. Elon is on record having said it probably wouldn’t have airbags. It’s the same reason the Hummer EV doesn’t have an EPA rating; it doesn’t need one as a medium duty truck.
The first person that comes up with a way for a Cybertruck to roll coal will be a billionaire.
That’s actually pretty easy. Strap a couple military grade smoke generators to it and you’re done!
Easy. Load a bunch of charcoal in the back, spray it with copious amounts of lighter fluid, and apply a match. Hopefully it will take the whole truck with it.
More then enough room in the bed for a 5.9 and a generator. Nice compound set up running 6 bar, and the biggest injectors one can buy. We’ll have this sucker whistling like a lucky teenager on prom night. Finally a road going diesel-hybrid freight train.
Nothing’ to it: Just splash some diesel on the tires and light them on fire.
Think of the clicks!
A Carolina squat will have that windshield acting more like a panoramic moonroof.
Watch the video of the cybertruck coming out of the factory. Bless its heart.
Anyone actually buying one is entering an emperor-has-no-clothes level of Tesla delusion