I have a strong and inexplicable love for British literature and music that is in no way congruous with my upbringing along the wind-swept beaches of the Gulf Coast or the tall pines of East Texas. It started in high school, and either mutton is reasonably substitutable for brisket or, maybe, there was a growing familiarity with the concept of an empire in decline.
This is all to say that I do not wish any British company or person ill, and that free trade and a “special relationship” between the two countries is a good thing. It’s also a little insane that, if you’re an automaker who followed the rules of trade first established by President Clinton under NAFTA and renegotiated under President Trump with the USMCA, your cars are going to be levied more heavily than British ones.
It was suggested yesterday that The Suck was not an apt metaphor for these current times, and that The Churn, from sci-fi duo James S.A. Corey’s excellent The Expanse universe of books and TV shows, was better.
Here’s how it’s described in the novella of the same name:
The Churn is some event that changes the rule for the way you live without giving you a choice to participate. Old norms are uplifted, old habits are forcibly broken, and your current way of life no longer can sustain itself.
Almost too on the nose, right? You don’t have to speak beltalowda, or even know what beltalowda is, to get it.
It’s going to be one of those Morning Dumps where I quote a lot of literature, and I suppose it would be more apt to start with a quote from a British author, but this felt right to me. I don’t mean to be a downer, and I hope I’m wrong, but this whole Trade War doesn’t seem to be going that well to me, at least in the automotive world.
There’s no overriding logic I can point to. There’s a deal with the UK (or, at least, a deal to make a deal) to start, but no agreement yet with the EU, and the EU is ready to play hardball. There’s been a long trucking recession that looked like it was ending. I don’t think it’s ending. I think we’re heading towards a “Trucker’s Recession” if something doesn’t change soon.
If there’s some ray of hope, it’s that China seems willing to come to the table and talk to the United States. Do you know who was on the undercard for The Fight of the Century between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier? Of course you don’t it doesn’t matter. That’s how I feel about a lot of these other trade deals.
(If you were curious, though, the best of those battles was apparently between the American Rahman Ali and Britain’s Danny McAlinden. The Brit won, if you believe in signs.)
It’ll Soon Be Easier For British Cars With Few Or No American Parts To Enter The Country Than For Mostly American Cars From Canada Or Mexico
Alright, here’s a quote from my favorite book by one of my favorite authors — a quote I think fits the moment:
It seems to me there was a will to war, a death wish, everywhere. Even good men thought their private honour would be satisfied by war. They could assert their manhood by killing and being killed. They would accept hardships in recompense for having been selfish and lazy. – Evelyn Waugh, Sword Of Honour
For now, it’s just a Trade War. Hopefully, it’ll just stay a trade war. But there’s a sense of inevitability with all of this that I can’t quite shake. It doesn’t feel like it needed to happen to me, which isn’t a universally shared sentiment.
There’s a sense that the President wanted to right a bunch of perceived wrongs by threatening massive trade barriers, or at least that’s the nicest gloss I can put on it. I’m not even one of those people who didn’t see a few shortcomings in America’s trade policy, and, surely, the last few years have taught us the importance of having some redundant local manufacturing capability.
Another way to think of “selfish and lazy” as mentioned above is: peaceful. A non-specific peace has been maintained for a decent amount of time, and slowly, the quality of living in a lot of places has been raised alongside it. The combination of the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine seems to have broken this peace, and the current occupants of the White House, in the name of prosperity, seem destined to inadvertently reverse the quality of life for many people.
What am I all worked up about? Here are the administration’s highlights of the impending deal between the United States and Northern Ireland/The United Kingdom, but let’s focus on this:
(i) The United States will create a quota of 100,000 vehicles for UK automotive imports at a 10 percent tariff rate, and an accompanying arrangement for attendant auto parts for such autos.
Trade negotiations are never truly fair to everyone, as the give-and-take inevitably requires some industries to be favored over others in the various countries involved in those negotiations. What is the United States getting out of this? It’s not clear, though farmers and ranchers seem to be in considerably better shape. Automakers, though, are going to lose out, according to the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents Detroit’s three automakers:
“The U.S. automotive industry is highly integrated with Canada and Mexico; the same is not true for the U.S. and UK. We are disappointed that the administration prioritized the UK ahead of our North American partners. Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little U.S. content than a USMCA compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts. This hurts American automakers, suppliers, and auto workers. We hope this preferential access for UK vehicles over North American ones does not set a precedent for future negotiations with Asian and European competitors,” said Governor Matt Blunt, president of the American Automotive Policy Council.
The United Kingdom sent about 100,000 cars to the United States last year, meaning that the country’s current level of automotive exports can be maintained without the huge impact experienced by other automakers. In particular, the net duties on a Land Rover Range Rover with 5% parts from Canada or the United States will be lower than, say, a Canadian-built Chrysler Pacifica with 88% of its parts content coming from the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
That is madness. President Trump might come around to renegotiate the USMCA trade deal he himself insisted on in his first term, thus resolving these issues, but it hasn’t happened yet.
There’s a concern in all of this that President Trump, anxious to make deals, is going to get played. That he is the Washington Generals, and the rest of the world is the Harlem Globetrotters. Here’s how CNN describes the mood:
For Trump, an uncertain economy and a long-term plan to restore US manufacturing come with a messaging challenge: how to explain to Americans who elected him on a promise to lower prices that, in fact, it is higher prices they should prepare for in the immediate future.
[…]
“You know, somebody said, ‘Oh, the shelves, they’re going to be open,’” he said. “Well maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”
For all the bluster of the President, deals like this don’t exactly seem like they’re coming from a position of strength. Maybe that’s just my impression, and maybe there’s some massive game theory at play here. The announcement of a “deal” was basically just an announcement that they’d announce one soon.
If you’re an American automaker and you’ve played by all the rules, you’re getting absolutely smoked for doing so right now. For you, The Churn is here.
The EU Is Going To Make Europe An Even Harder Place To Sell American Cars, Bourbon
The aspect of Jane Austen’s Emma that Clueless captures better than any other filmed version I’ve seen is just how much of a self-centred jerk she can be at the start of the book. Filmmakers have a hard time being as unflinching in their portrayals of Austen’s flawed heroines, but Cher is just about perfect. The next quote is, like much of the book, both sincere and deeply ironic:
“[A] very narrow income has a tendency to contract the mind, and sour the temper.”
Europe and, in particular, European automakers have been in a bad way lately. I’m not sure if their minds have contracted, but the tempers have definitely turned sour.
German automakers are likely to experience more disruptions due to these tariffs than automakers in any other country unless the EU can negotiate a better deal. Seeing what the UK was able to do, maybe there’s hope, but hope is the thing with feathers, and the EU wants to start with the talons instead:
From Bloomberg via The Detroit News:
The European Union is planning to hit €95 billion ($108 billion) of U.S. exports with additional tariffs if ongoing trade talks with President Donald Trump’s team fail to yield a satisfactory result.
The proposed retaliatory measures would especially target industrial goods including Boeing Co. aircraft, U.S.-made cars and bourbon, which was initially removed from a previous list. The new proposal will be the subject of consultations with member states and other stakeholders through June 10 and could change before it’s finalized.
More bourbon for people in American C-Suites, at least. Europe is a bad scene for Detroit automakers already, with GM ditching its European arm, Stellantis unsteadily balancing it with its American portfolio, and Ford trying to salvage its German production. This ain’t helping.
Again, everyone wants a deal, and Audi CEO Gernot Doellner thinks things might get a little better eventually, or at least that’s what he told a trade group earlier today:
“We expect to have clarity on this in the coming months and also regulations that will make what is currently on the horizon more bearable or manageable,” said Doellner.
Trucker’s Recession, Redux
“Events stream past us like these crowds and the face of each is seen only for a minute. What is urgent is not urgent forever but only ephemerally. All work and all love, the search for wealth and fame, the search for truth, like itself, are made up of moments which pass and become nothing. ” Iris Murdoch, Under the Net
The big talk in trucking circles over the last few years was of the “Great Freight Recession,” which trucking site Freight Waves described as “the most prolonged freight recession in history.” A combination of factors, including a low interest policy encouraging overcapacity, led to a huge imbalance between demand and capacity. The election of President Trump, at the time, was seen by a lot of businesses as a general good thing for business, including trucking:
Trump’s election could accelerate freight demand as policy changes could stimulate economic activity, increasing the need for freight services. This includes income and corporate tax cuts, bonus depreciation, pre-stocking for tariffs, investment in domestic manufacturing and the change in freight dynamics from containers to surface (trucking, rail and domestic warehousing).
Let’s check in on that.
The ongoing trade war between the United States and China is beginning to show significant impacts on the American economy, particularly in the transportation and logistics sectors. Industry experts are warning of substantial job losses and economic disruption as the effects of reduced trade volumes begin to materialize.
“We’re just at the start of the trade war,” said Craig Fuller, CEO of Firecrown Media and SONAR, in a new video on X. “We’ve been at this for a couple of weeks, but things are definitely starting to take an impact in the economy.”
If the past recession was a “Trucking Recession,” then this could be a “Trucker’s Recession” led by layoffs in logistics and distribution-related businesses. A new survey from Tech.co of transport and shipping professionals points to impacts starting to filter down to workers:
“Managing financial pressures” was among the most common responses given by the logistics firms that Tech.co polled, when asked about their top priority for this quarter. Over one in five (21%) firms picking this above every other issue, putting it second overall, ahead of every other issue except vehicle upkeep (23%).
What are the top ways that firms are dealing with their money issues? Among those who are most concerned with their financial well-being right now, the biggest steam valve they plan to open up is a reduction in operational costs, with 46% saying they intend to trim some costs related to operations in the very near future.
For firms like this, operational costs are often code for “people,” and it’s not just people who work at these companies who are impacted. With delays in truck purchases, anyone in truck manufacturing or related fields has a reason to be concerned.
This is just a small part of the total economy now, of course, but it’s an important one.
China And The United States Are Preparing To Talk
“I never knew a man who had better motives for all the trouble he caused.” Graham Greene, The Quiet American
The United States and China have both levied huge tariffs on one another, but at least the talking is starting to happen.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed steep tariffs on China last month, Beijing has responded in kind. On state and social media, it posted images of Mao Zedong, lambasted “imperialists,” and sent a message: capitulation to bullies is dangerous, and it wouldn’t back down.
But behind closed doors, Chinese officials have grown increasingly alarmed about tariffs’ impact on the economy and the risk of isolation as China’s trading partners have started negotiating deals with Washington, according to three officials familiar with Beijing’s thinking.
These factors, along with outreach by the U.S. and an easing of Trump’s rhetoric, persuaded Beijing to send its economic tsar He Lifeng for meetings with U.S. counterparts in Switzerland this weekend, the officials told Reuters.
China is both a peer state rival and a trading partner, and it’s a bipartisan belief in the United States that the country has to be approached carefully. President Obama negotiated the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) specifically to strengthen this country’s ties to most Asian economies in order to protect against China’s growing influence.
President Trump walked away from the TPP and replaced it with some smaller deals, including with Korea, but nothing on any kind of similar scale. Will something be forthcoming now? I’ve talked about “China Shock” before, and how hollowing out a lot of American industrial capacity was probably going to always lead to a populist response of some kind. The question was always the form the destructor of global trade norms would take: Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump. We ended up with two disconnected terms from President Trump.
There’s a lot for America to gain in negotiations with China, including a return of some of that technology they “borrowed” as well as more open markets for our own goods. There’s also a lot of risk.
While negotiations with every country are important, it’s the promise of a deal with China that could fundamentally alter the trajectory we’re on, with a good deal possibly improving our economy before it all comes crashing down on our heads.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Here’s Yolanda Be Cool & DCUP with “We No Speak Americano,” which is an extra funny song to listen to right now for, uh, papal reasons if you speak Italian or Spanish.
The Big Question
Is there a British car that you lust after more than any other car? For me, it’s always going to be the Escort Cosworth RS.
Top Photo: Depositphotos.com
I despise war. For a long time I have pondered what it would be like to wage war via business versus invading/killing people. Now that we are basically starting to see the results of it, I’m petrified. The depth of suffering will be so much broader and greater than the classic wars of the past. It’s sad that we chose this path versus the path we had been on for generations.
I’m pretty sure the old school war happening in Ukraine right now is proving you wrong.
That trade war is still some stupid self inflicted deep wound for the USA. I still sympathize with anyone affected by it.
Fully agree. But, as bad as Ukraine, Gaza, and now Kashmir, none of those wars are wars “we are in” (yet). I don’t expect to “get into” any of those wars either, as Trump’s approach is war through business. I genuinely believe him when he says he doesn’t want people die, it’s one of his few tenants I can say I feel he has held onto going as far back as the 80’s.
I selfishly say any of this because we have not had a proper way on our own soil in over 150 years. That memory is fully lost on our population. We don’t know war. We only know wars we send our Troops to. WWI and WWII affected everyone, but again, we weren’t being invaded, directly.
This trade war is going to affect people in the US in the same way that the people in Ukraine are affected, wholly, everything, everyone, everywhere. It’s going to be a pain we have not felt. I don’t want to discuss if we deserve it or not, that is another post another day. My point is simply that this is going to be extreme, new pain, and I think as a direct effect on the US population, it’s going to be worse than any of the other wars we have experienced since the Civil war.
Trump’s attitude belies his ‘not wanting people to die’, unless of course Palestinian civilians don’t count as people. We’ve been there before.
The worst suffering will be to all those who will literally die thanks to cutting USAID and having someone who doesn’t believe in germs as Health Secretary also pushing anti-vax talking points.
YES, I kinda blanket those under the same war. I am still not logically nor morally understanding of why the war exists, but… yeah.
It’s easier to win a fight against one person than it is against one hundred and ninety four people. Especially so if any of them agree to kick your ass together because you’re behaving like an idiot bully who has it coming.
What a fucking moron. Sigh
All this winning must be tiring…
I’m certainly exhausted by it.
Just returned home from a professional conference (Maintenance & Reliability Professionals). The word of the week is ‘uncertainty’, no one knows what’s coming next or when the next shoe will drop. Do we take the hit and stockpile parts or pray the supply chains keep moving? Maintenance is always a cost, not a profitability center. But poorly managed maintenance can wipe out profits in a heartbeat. We are all trying to do more with less.
Mechanical services here. It’s the uncertainty that’s hurting us—and everyone. In a customer’s ceiling yesterday I couldn’t help but overhear him talking to one of their customers who was apparently asking whether a bid (their products are in low-to-mid 6 figures) took tariffs into account —and what would the increase be if not (this is conjecture from one side of the conversation, mind)? He sounded pained—and frustrated. These kind of industries plan out several years. How can you do that right now?
-he drove his supercharged Miata yesterday: sounded freakin sweet 🙂
Bingo! I worked front line in the specialy steel industry for almost 20 years. The suppliers, machine shops, etc… keep you running every day. I’m a Corporate level now in another industry but the same issues carry through.
“the current occupants of the White House, in the name of prosperity, seem destined to inadvertently reverse the quality of life for many people.”
I’m not so certain of that. This administration seems pretty hell bent on turning us into a bunch of serfs serving a few lords.
It sure seems like this is the plan. Techno-capitalism, with a few CEO’s running everything with the rest of us as serfs.
Exactly.
There’s an author that has a whole theory on this; I forget his name. But reportedly, Elon and Peter Theil et al are followers of this. Basically, the govt is regulated to a much smaller role, with no regulatory capacity, and the corporations are allowed to do as they please, with the country being split up into “economic zones” run by CEOs.
Peter Thiel has written on this as explicitly his plan, but I think the name you’re looking for is Curtis Yarvin.
JD Vance is Peter Thiel’s own personal puppet.
Yes! Thanks, that’s the name. JD’s daddy.
Corporatocracy is pretty much the premise of the 1975 film, Rollerball. It’s worth your time if you haven’t seen it. The third act is terrific.
Wasn’t that the backdrop of RoboCop? Or Freejack, for that matter?
It always astounds me how Americans are so obsessed with pop culture yet have learned nothing from the countless movies that predicted our current situation.
Off the dome:
Back to the Future II
Super Mario Bros (1993)
RoboCop
Batman Returns
Your favorite action figures all warned you!
When you feel like a king, everyone else looks like a serf.
Yeah, they really don’t seem to want to “inadvertently” hurt the quality of life of people like me. It seems pretty direct from my place here in the cheap seats.
I have a Tennessee-built Lotus 7 replica. I want for nothing even slightly more British.
I look forward to the morning dump every day, and this was a great one. This bit resonated:
I’m a bit of a pessimist that never had a burning desire for kids, but after Trump got elected the first time and then I witnessed human behavior through covid I can’t understand rationally wanting children. I would constantly worry about their future. We’re doomed.
That said, I am glad the folks that want kids have kids. They make the best parents, and those parents have a much better chance of raising good people. Good luck to you.
I had two daughters not long before he was elected (2012 and 2015). The world we’re living in is so different than what I was expecting when we brought them into the world, and it’s scaring the fucking shit out of me.
I’m starting to explore exit plans for my family.
My daughter turns 20 next month…the upheaval this country has experienced during her short life is profound. There is a part of me calling to be an ex-pat.
As an unattached (save for aging parents) couple, we have thought about it. Unless you marry into citizenship it is no cakewalk to fully integrate into another country. Moving assets is difficult. Language is difficult. Bureaucracy in a difficult language is difficult-er. Plus, it might not be long until Yankees are seen as global pariahs.
That’s the thing that those Americans that have never traveled (not saying that is the case in this thread) don’t understand. You can’t just pick up your shit and move to wherever you want. Depending on the country, you either need some really deep pockets, legacy connection, or a combo of both. Otherwise, it’s pretty friggin’ hard.
This is the basic crux of the whole immigration debates happening in many countries right now.
Former expat in several different countries here. You are correct. Unless you land a VERY good job elsewhere, it is incredibly difficult just to get by.
We have lived most of our history under uncertainty and self-inflicted crises, psycopaths and morons (still today), and even when we have thicker skins, it has a verifiable impact on mental health and well-being, even with the well-to-do.
Reddit threads are chock full of folks looking to ‘AmerExit’. Hopes get dashed every day.
Best, most practical advice I have seen: If you are that concerned and/or vulnerable now then move to a deep blue state. Massachusetts, California, Colorado, etc aren’t going to roll over and die. If they ‘fall’ you’re likely to have a bad time in the rest of the free world. It’s also much easier and cheaper than moving abroad.
I’ll be here trying to keep Old Dominion blue-purple.
Don’t assume that California and Colorado are all that “deep blue” overall, specific location definitely matters for day by day life. In CA it’s mainly around SF and LA, i.e. the most unaffordable areas, but there’s PLENTY of area (likely the vast majority of the land mass if not population mass) that is VERY red, certainly the Central Valley. And in Colorado the front range is maybe a little bluer than the rest but the west side of the Rockies and most of the flatland to the east is quite red. I don’t know much about MA but am sure there are plenty of red pockets there as well.
We’ve given serious consideration to Scotland.
You’d still have the language issue then.
I found it to be more confusing sometimes…internally I know I should be able to understand people but sometimes I just couldn’t.
I don’t get to travel internationally often, but I was in Edinburgh in September after walking the West Highland Way. I had been before, but the lady hadn’t. She fell in love and seriously wanted to live there.
I told her everyone else loves it too. They don’t make it easy to immigrate because of that. Do you have any secrets?
All correct, but as a teacher I have an in. Many places are short on teachers, including some that speak English. Some have programs that help you with the paperwork and even pay a lot of the moving expenses.
My brother and his wife have a 1-year-old. I’m so happy for them and they are already FANTASTIC parents. Bust damn, am I ever scared for that kid.
Same for my other two slightly older nephews.
I’m scared for my grandkids. My daughter and her husband are smart and prudent—but his business is heavily dependent on Medicaid.
I remember my parent’s angst from the early 70s: I know we’ll survive mostly—just not at all sure what that looks like.
There’s a lot of doctors around here opting out of the corporate medicine grind and electing to go their own way. Even if medicare goes away people will still need some level of local care. There are plenty of billing abuses both in medicare as well as in general insured medicine, the doctors that are doing their own thing are transparent about charges, and usually end up costing less overall as they don’t waste their time or need staff to fight the insurance company. Instead, cash when you walk in and depending on how many people they see an hour and what the issue is most are still making a quite good living if viewed on an hourly basis.
Yeah I saw the writing on the wall years ago when I got snipped. I am so glad I don’t have children right now.
SAME. Plus, now we have an excuse to politely talk about our, uh, berries in polite conversation!
I’m a middle-aged middling-skilled native-born US citizen with no furrin family ties (or inheritance) single gwm with what I thought was an ample retirement savings diligently squirreled away despite numerous recessions, a master’s degree and a few personal setbacks. For a few years I’ve been deeply regretting not investing more time in my 20’s & 30’s to bag an EU national partner. Now I’m damaged goods with no market value and stuck in this dump of a trailer park.
I can’t believe I’m about to agree with a Trump policy, because holy shit what am I even doing, but..
I’m totally OK with making a deal with the UK on auto imports while continuing to hold Ford’s feet to the fire on their Mexican imports. No American manufacturing workers were harmed in the production of the Range Rover. But Ford can get fucked for exporting American jobs 10 feet over the border while waving the flag about being a “Real Amurkin Company”.
I agree with this in theory, but the people who were negatively impacted by Ford moving jobs to Mexico will also be negatively impacted by these tariffs. If Trump et al truly cared they’d provide some sort of economic relief to towns with Ford factories that got shut down.
Economic policy is hard, and I surely will not argue that Trump is good at it, nor am I an expert. But even a Trump-level intellect can see that policies that allowed American manufacturers to move any and all jobs to Mexican border towns without repercussion was a shitty deal for American workers.
BTW, I don’t actually believe that Trump gives an orange-tinted shart about American workers. It just happens to be a pro-worker policy in this particular instance.
It undoubtedly was a shitty deal for the working class, but I don’t see how a tariff is going to make up for damage that’s already been done. It’s just going to lead to increased prices for consumers, less demand, and therefore, laid-off factory workers.
If Trump genuinely cared he’d be reinforcing the EPA/OSHA, encouraging union representation, and advocating for higher wages for factory workers, but we know how unlikely that would all be.
I’m only playing Devil’s advocate with this comment and may or may not agree with it or the premise, but…
If you believe that moving the jobs to another country was bad for US workers, the tariffs are serving as an equalizer in this scenario.
Moving production to a region with lower wages can cause lower prices for consumers. Sure, some of it will be profit taking but competitive forces will put pressure on price over time.
So, the tariffs raise the price to bring parity with locally produced goods. In theory. When reasonably applied. Yeah…
So the increased prices are to offset the previously lowered prices. Those higher wages for factory workers and unions will also lead to higher prices for consumers but is also good for the American worker.
This is why free trade is important because all of these issues shouldn’t really be decided by politicians. However, I would not be opposed to some standard, maybe even legislation that determined a company operating in the country has some level of obligation to the citizens where they operate. Even that is wide open to being abused and played by both sides (gov’t and corporations). There are just never easy answers in all this.
We can agree that he doesn’t genuinely care. But it isn’t true to say something is bad because something else is even better.
It’s pro-worker for some, but it’s not an industrial policy, or economic policy. Free trade deals aren’t free, they’re preferential. There is not such thing as free trade, except in the minds of a few nutso Libertarians. I think the intent of NAFTA was and remains very sound, and linked the economics and politics of 3 countries that was favorable to most. Tariffs aren’t a viable & sustainable long term policy. We’re in the FO stage now and its going to get worse, much worse, before it gets better.
I thought Eisenhower had the right idea with 80% tax on businesses but all domestic investment was deductible. It’s the correct inducement for create jobs. Tariff are only to level against unfair foreign imports protecting existing manufacturing
“ If Trump et al truly cared they’d provide some sort of economic relief to towns with Ford factories that got shut down.”
This along with the “relief to Farmers, i.e. cash payments” to me smacks of precisely what the right professes to hate so much, i.e. “socialism”. Of course nobody I know with a trump sticker on their car sent their stimulus checks back to the government either, you know how it is…
I can see the logic here, but what of every other non-domestic manufacturer? Who got hurt if someone opts for an M5?
Ford unless someone in Germany ponies up for an F150 Raptor to compensate for the M5 sale here. Gotta keep that dollar flow even…
Revenge never makes for sane policy
*Looks at all the Ford plants in the USA*
Yeah, no, lets get in a trade war to force 1 factory in Mexico back to the USA. Brilliant decision.
Putting aside the fact that there are two plants, Ford currently makes over 20% of its NA market cars in Mexico. 5 years ago it was 2%. Without a reason not to, they (and everyone else) will only continue exporting jobs.
The point made in the article is what’s important. Ultimately, it would be good to move some of those final assembly factories back across the border from Mexico, but the truth is that there’s a high percentage of content in any car from Canada or Mexico that was made by U.S. workers (and importantly, vice versa).
Even the cars being built in the US are being harmed by the higher tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while cars being built in the U.K. with zero U.S. worker content get a free pass.
What really irks me is that the Land Rovers and Bentleys coming in tariff free won’t help relieve any pricing pressure on working or middle class families, but instead give a nice tax break to those who can afford luxury vehicles. They’re screwing the working class auto workers and working class consumers.
Which billionaire cabinet member was in Trump’s ear about their upcoming Rolls purchase and wanting a discount?
That’s fine – but punishing Canadian and Mexican workers for the jobs that Ford exported in accordance with existing laws and trade agreements is stupid.
You wanna punish someone?
Punish the CEOs and Shareholders who exported the jobs and profited from that action.
You’ve got to go back about 60 or 70 years to find the source – that’s when business schools started adopting and teaching the concept that a company exists for no other reason than to serve its shareholders. You need to minimize labor and push as many indirect costs out of the company and into the public realm as possible. That’s what they teach in business school.
Back in Shakespeare’s day, it was “first let’s kill all the lawyers”. At some point down the road, some author may look back at this era and instead target the MBAs.
So, so much winning. The best winning. The most beautiful winning. Masterful negotiations by the greatest deal maker of all time. People are talking about it, folks, and they’re saying great things. Simply wonderful things. They’re lining up with tears in my eyes and telling me “god emperor Trump, I am so grateful for all of the winning”. Let me tell you, those egg prices are going to come down. Eggs will be so abundant that we’ll pay you to take them off our hands.
…British car I lust after? We can technically buy it on this side of the pond but an F Type R. Just a gorgeous monument to pure driving excess and emotion. People are talking about it. Goddammit Trumpspeak has wormed its way into my brain again….
The classic Mini.
I’ve wanted one for probably nearly 20 years at this point. I’ll make it happen one day.
I’ve long admired several Lotus cars, but is Lotus British anymore? Isn’t it owned by Geely?
I’m not sure Europe has become bitter as much as they’ve grown more rational and realistic in their view of the US. You don’t need a crystal ball to see where this is going. Europe will shut off the supply of US-made cars and open the taps on Chinese -made cars, which are plentiful, cheap and many of them are of excellent quality. This is the beginning of a long downward turn for the US automotive industry due to US policy that is destroying our foreign relationships and credibility.
While Greene’s “The Quiet American” is an excellent book, Lederer’s “The Ugly American” might be more on-point for this conversation. Here are a few quotes:
“The clerks you send over here try to buy us like cattle. You people are like the fable of the rich man who was an idiot.”
“I do not think that the Russians will ever resort to thermonuclear warfare. They won’t have to. They are winning much too easily to run the risk of annihilation by retaliation.”
“Nothing is a fake if people believe in it.“
“Nothing is a fake if people believe in it.“
That is what is propping up the highly profitable multinational organization that just elected a new Pope.
and the current occupants of the White House, in the name of prosperity, seem destined to inadvertently reverse the quality of life for many people.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: I’m more and more convinced this is not inadvertent and completely deliberate. It’s tempting to lean on Occam’s razor and point to incompetence by bumbling fools making decisions (and yes, there is plenty of that) but we really need to change the narrative to make it more clear that much of what’s happening is malicious, not oblivious, and react accordingly.
Stephen Miller and the genuinely intelligent evil people behind the scenes want everyone living in poverty and working factory jobs, but I don’t think Trump cares about anything but himself.
Been observing the loathsome orangutan since the early 80’s and all he has ever aspired to is being at the cool kids table who collectively despise him for what he is.
I latched onto that too, I also certainly feel like the negative impacts to quality of life are intentional and malicious. It has been going on for years as well. The entire GOP cult has basically decided to make life as miserable as possible for anyone not exactly like them, whether non-white or LGBT or enviro or whatever.
I’m convinced that the GP has outright contempt for anyone not in the 1%.
At this rate, I’m half expecting to lose personhood/voting rights if I don’t have a net worth of at least $10m in a couple years.
We Want What’s Worst for Everyone
We’re Just Plain Evil
— GOP Convention banners seen on The Simpsons
Project 2025 was crafted by delusional white supremacists to do delusional supremacist things, and that is the playbook for this administration. The cruelty is the point. The longer it takes for the general media and populace to internalize that, the worse off we’ll be.
The people pulling the strings on this are 100% believers in a technocracy. Look up what Peter Thiel believes, and do a bit of digging into Curtis Yarvin. They aren’t household names for this administration, but Thiel is good buddies with Musk going way back to their apartheid upbringing in South Africa, and he’s JD Vance’s mentor and financial backer.
They are 100% crashing the economy on purpose so they can benefit. Unlike many wealthy people who get scared when the market crashes and they lose money, these guys are pissed that having a lot of money didn’t give them unlimited power over other humans (thanks to that pesky constitution). What they want now is power, and crashing the economy is how they will seize it.
Is there a British car that you lust after more than any other car?
I have two:
I respectfully disagree somewhat with the assessment of Waugh’s quote as applied to a non-trivial portion of the US population.
Before the pandemic, there were prolific demonstrations of faux loyalty and genuine chestpuffery from legions of alleged “patriots”, professing their infinite love for this country and their equal willingness to die for it.
Then the pandemic lockdowns arrived and those same loudshouters folded immediately, crying into their canned domestic beer because they couldn’t get haircuts or go to bars. There is no way they’re going to accept any sort of sacrifice, even in the short term.
tl;dr – a lot of people the US cannot tolerate any distress, especially when they cannot and/or refuse to understand why it’s happening
I would generally agree with you but their Daddy Trump is telling them to be ok with it and a good bit seem to be going along with it. His approval rating at this point should be in the 20s and it still hasn’t gone below 40 yet. Maybe when the crushing recession hits us will his approval tank but I doubt it.
It will obviously be Biden fault.
What do they say? Soft times breed soft men, which leads to hard times, hard times breed hard men, which leads to soft times?
We are many generations removed from a life based around warfare. Peace has reigned long. But peace does indeed breed soft men.
It need not be that way. Good parents, and by extension, good teachers can instruct without suffering. Peace doesn’t breed soft men, ignorance does.
I agree with you. It doesn’t HAVE to be that way.
This quote is such bullshit.
All those men need to stop breeding men.
That is a complaint about my statement. Do you have a counter argument to prove your position?
Yeah, I do. War, famine, disease, and economic depression wreak havoc on society. They do not usher in golden eras. That quote basically claims that horrible human tragedy is required for good times in society, which is a pretty outlandish claim. The onus is on the person making the claim to provide evidence that it’s true.
There are countries that are prospering that have had extremely long periods of peace (Switzerland). The US went to war, but we haven’t had a war on our soil in 150 years. There are countries that have had recent wars and are shitholes. If this quote was true than the US and USSR, both victors in WW2, should have had very similar post-war paths and success, and yet they didn’t. Why did Germany and Japan prosper post-war and Italy lag behind? Do you think Ukraine is thrilled that at least these “hard times” mean they’ll get to have a great time in like 20 years assuming they survive as a country?
So again, this quote sucks and is bullshit.
A general understanding of world history disproves the cyclical nature of your statement.
Just based on a few examples from modern history – South Sudan has been at war more often than not for at least 3 generations and has a GDP of less than $500/person – no soft times appear to be on the horizon.
Syria hasn’t had generational soft times since before WWI – lets say at least 5 generations.
Indo-Pakistan conflicts, Kashmir, Afgan-Pakistan conflicts – these areas are all going on at least 4 generations of hard times.
Haiti was the first independent Caribbean nation in the early 1800s but it would be difficult to find any consecutive generations of soft times there in the last 200 years.
How many generations of breeding does it take to get hard enough for the hard men to bring soft times?
Ford Capri Mark lll S.
Don’t worry about all this trade war and recession stuff. AI will solve it all. So, come with me if you want to live.
I’m actually rooting for Skynet at this point.
And a British vehicle? I do like the Escort RS1600 Mexico (rally). Don’t need one, but if I had AI-expenditure money, I’d get one.
Any British car? I always wanted a Scimitar, came close to buying one last year, and glad I checked with the state first as it turned out to not meet our emissions
But, if an example about a decade older should turn up close by at some point
Princess Anne drives one, you know.
Let be realistic: the Emira. Want. Badly.
Lotus Esprit, please and thank you. At any point in the run. [wistful sigh]
I’ll need a V8, since I’m tall and fit in those best. I can fit in the 87’s and older if I pop the sunroof but my left knee uncomfortably butts up against the dash. The 88’s and newer fours are doable as long as I have the glass panel in place.
Who am I kidding I’d figure out a way to make it work in any instance. Gotta have it.
When I worked at a classic car dealer, we had a purple Esprit Turbo for a while. It was the most exciting car I ever drove. The car weighed nothing and had a big turbo. The biggest kick I ever felt in second gear, legitimately scared me.
This is absolutely what’s going to happen. He’s so stupid that all any other country has to do is stroke him off a little bit and present him with a deal that makes him feel like a special boy.
They could probably actually increase tariffs against the US at this point, and as long as you’ve said the right things to him he’ll never bother to look into the matter further, and none of the soulless husks in his cabinet will have the courage to tell him he got played.
Let’s be honest.
He has the intelligence of a fuckin rock…
Wonder how that ear is healing up?
It’s almost inevitable that at some point, some intern will do the math and reveal what a shit non-deal this is. The Trump administration will perform another U-turn, the ‘agreement’ will be revised/cancelled and the reputation of the USA will fall even further.
Which kind of explains the attitude of the EU. Better to go into discussions with hard demands, because this administration cannot be trusted.
I wouldn’t say no to a Morris Marina, preferably without the roof mounted piano.
The 2 dolls vs 30 dolls quote is nearing Marie Antoinette levels of tone deafness it implies there was never any intention of having the rise in cost of goods offset by good jobs returning and is instead a targeted distruction of the middle class.
It also blatantly ignores the people who could only afford 2 dolls in the first place.
And the fact that no mainstream media, or even most middle-to-upper class commenters online, say anything about how these cost increases disproportionately destroy the less fortunate Americans, says something about something.
There is no empathy left in this country anymore, and it’s sad.
Covid really laid this bare. It required the most minor possible personal concessions and that made half the country so mad they literally went insane.
Well they softened the blow by talking about dolls instead of items like clothing or food.
That’s what really got me about the dolls comment. What about shoes, tools, repair parts, and other necessities workers need to do their jobs. Trivializing tariff costs by referencing toys was a rhetorical trick.
I never expected this administration would be anti-consumerism.
Food and clothing are highly overrated.
Maslow would probably disagree with that statement. (Don’t worry – I picked up on your sarcasm.)
Hey Rocky watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat.
Or no dolls. Toys for Tots has already been a thing for decades.
And Kars for Kids is a complete sham. When have they ever given a car to a kid?
Nor have I ever received a car in exchange for a kid, and I keep trying to donate.
I’m more worried about “Tots for Tykes” food programs being needed in the next few years. Soup kitchens were a thing some 90 years ago. It could happen again.
The ports are empty, and the transportation industry is just the canary in the coal mine. Soon it will be empty shelves, lots of layoffs, and problems for the banks.
During the Great Depression, employment was about 75% at its lowest. I am starting to wonder if we’re going to touch those levels again in the next several years. I just don’t see how we maintain anywhere close to the current 95% employment rate, given everything we’re hearing about what’s coming down the pike.
Agreed on all counts.
The kids without their own dolls will be the ones working all the new manufacturing jobs, making the dolls for the other kids during their 16-hour shifts, 6 days a week.
Yes it does, but I’d also point out your comment ignores the unspoken “those people should go back to where they came from”.
Don’t get me started on how evil and terrible that concept is.
Seems we’re heading back to the dark ages.
“targeted” may be giving them more credit than they deserve. The most destructive of the Trump policies are coming from deranged idiots who simply cannot follow the thread.
Especially as he’s busily redecorating the Oval Office with faux gold peel and stick architectural trim pieces from AliExpress to try and make it look more like Versailles
Faux gold? How cute. I’m sure the Tech Bros or middle eastern oil barons will spring for the real thing. Then he’ll peel it off the walls and take it home with him when he leaves after he gets tired of all this crap, at some point during his third term.
Much it is clearly fake, the trim he added to the fireplace, wainscoting, and cornice is all a commercially manufactured foam molding with self-adhesive backing. The gold paint and gold plated eagle statuettes added to the architraves is probably real, albeit thin, of course. Although, he’s still using the same 32 year old curtains made for Bill Clinton
Free market true believer wallet conservatives intentionally ignore power dynamics when modeling economies.
A model that doesn’t incorporate power imbalance can “impartially” support a world where most people are so destitute that “freely” entering an agreement to sell a kidney to some trust fund kid who chugged too many Monsters is how many of us stay alive.
If you’re a free market maximalist that thinks buyers are always rational, you’re wrong and you probably get paid a healthy salary from an entity that has made piles of money correctly betting on the opposite.
Part of the issue with China currently that no one ever brings up is their developing country status (they have a space program, for Pete’s sake!) which means they ship to the US virtually for free.
Now, I’m not saying there isn’t abject poverty in China, but the fact that Temu can sell stuff to us for a couple bucks shipped when it’s ~$10 for me to send something 30 miles away needs more attention
Ford StreetKa
Moving on, I was struck yesterday at how the world now has three major physical conflicts going on at once — Ukraine, Gaza, and now Kashmir. And almost all combatants in these fights have nukes, yay!
I guess that just makes it a little harder to give a damn about the trade war anymore, which I still think will be a minor footnote in history after 2025. The only game being played right now is how to extricate ourselves from the Don’s brash promises that make no sense for either party. And also how to convince his hardline base that this is destructive to the middle class. Whether that feeback loop actually results in some kind of change, I don’t know. If I had to gamble, Trump will die in office and this will be Vance’s problem, which honestly could be a small coup for Vance once his puppetmaster is no longer breathing down his neck.
Is this meant to imply that Trump is the puppetmaster here? Because at least in this term the people behind Project 2025 are the ones pulling his strings. That’s why, for better or (mostly) worse, he’s actually doing stupid stuff this time around instead of just saying stupid stuff. He was clueless and ineffective in his first term, and a bunch of evil motherfuckers saw an opportunity to take advantage of the former trait to change the latter to suit their desires.
And the worst part is they told us exactly what they were doing, and we elected him anyway.
With Trump gone, there will be a power vacuum that no other Republican has the charisma to fill. I predict intense infighting, resulting in a diminishing of the Party’s ability to execute their agenda.
I’m expecting other sorts of execution first.
“…though farmers and ranchers seem to be in considerably better shape.”
False. My understanding is the Brits agreed to open their markets to American beef but refused to change their standards that would freely allow American beef. So, we gained nothing because they told Donald he was pretty and that’s all he needs.
American beef producers don’t want to produce beef that meets the standards of EU, UK, Australia etc. even though the FDA took years to create the rules that would allow them to do so. And that’s even before you realize some of those countries are beef exporters, with production exceeding their internal consumption.
So maybe no one should believe the orange shitstain when you know he’s lying cause his lips are moving.
Yeah, the Gordon Murray T50 is probably the best car ever made.
As for more pedestrian British stuff, can’t say I’ve ever felt the urge to partake.
Is there a British car that you lust after more than any other car? The McLaren F1
Ford RS200, for sure!