Every once in a while, I see a post online asking the public which car is set to jump in value in the near future as it ascends to true collector status. The Lotus Elise? Maybe. The first-generation Miata? Sure, that makes sense. But neither of those cars is the first that comes to mind. Any time someone asks me about this, my answer is always the same: The first-generation Porsche Cayenne GTS. Specifically, those optioned with the six-speed manual transmission.
A late 2000s SUV might sound like a strange choice, seeing as how most collectors don’t really give a damn about cars that aren’t low-slung, low-production, sporty, analog machines. But the truth is, the manual Cayenne GTS ticks a majority of those boxes, plus, it’s a Porsche, which means there’s no shortage of people obsessed with the brand who have enough money to blow on an oddball SUV to add to their collection.
Weirdly, though, despite the rarity of these stick-shift, V8-powered SUVs, they haven’t exploded in value like I expected they would. Used examples have certainly climbed in price since they bottomed out a few years back, but no manual first-gen Cayenne has broken the six-figure barrier at auction … not yet, anyway.
Any Day Now
I predict it’s only a matter of time before that happens. To understand why, all you have to do is look at recent market trends. If you were anywhere near car internet back in December, you’ll remember that a V6-powered Cayenne—a later 958-generation car with no sporting intentions—sold for a whopping $125,000 on Cars & Bids.
As my colleague Thomas pointed out in the wake of that sale, a base Cayenne selling for over six figures—more than any manual GTS has sold for at public auction—is sort of strange. Before that sale occurred, most similar examples sold in the $30,000 to $40,000 range. The most expensive GTS the market has seen is this grey example with 30,000 miles, which sold on Bring a Trailer for $91,000 back in 2021. Usually, examples with reasonable mileage never crack the $70,000 barrier. A Cayenne S Transsyberia with a six-speed, of which only three exist, sold for $70,500 back in 2023.
Some will say that Cars & Bids’ sale was a fluke, but I think it points to where the market is eventually heading. As younger people get richer, the taste in the collector market shifts. While the manual Cayenne probably wasn’t on anyone’s bedroom wall, it’s still weird and interesting enough to be aspirational. And the people who were growing up when it was new certainly understand that, and want it for themselves. The GTS model, in particular, checks a couple of boxes that few cars can: It’s an SUV with three pedals, which is rare enough on its own. But it also has a 405-horsepower V8, which makes it exciting. Porsche’s decision to restore one through its factory “Sonderwunsch” program last year is proof that these things have staying power.
The final piece of the puzzle is, of course, rarity. I’ve asked Porsche about manual GTS production numbers in the past, and it couldn’t give me a definitive answer. But the number is somewhere between 134 and around 300 examples, depending on who you ask. That means these things are incredibly hard to come by. And because many of them were used as daily driver workhorses, finding one with low miles is especially difficult. I suspect it’s only a matter of time before a minty, ultra-low-mile example appears on Bring a Trailer and breaks all the records.
A Collector Car You Or I Could Own
If you don’t care about mileage, a manual Cayenne GTS could be a unique way to break into the collector Porsche market at a reasonable price. Because of their rarity, these trucks only occasionally pop up for sale—you’d be hard-pressed to find more than two or three for sale in the U.S. at any given time. While examples with low miles usually only appear at fancy dealers or auction sites these days, high-mile versions still pop up on Facebook and Craigslist from time to time.
The car you see here is one such example. I found it this morning while browsing Facebook, showing over 217,000 miles on the odometer. With an asking price of just $18,957, it’s far cheaper than any of the other results I’ve mentioned so far, and even comes in the car’s GTS Red launch color.
This GTS isn’t perfect, of course. All those miles mean there’s a bunch of stuff that needs replacing, including the windshield, the center support bearing, and the driver’s side fender (due to rust, according to the seller). It also has a check engine light and needs some suspension work, going by the listing.
At this mileage, it probably won’t gain much value as time goes on, but still, for a car I believe won’t lose any value, it’s a solid buy. And because the miles are already so high, you don’t have to worry about adding any more. For a daily driver you can actually use to haul cargo or people, you can’t do much better than something with a manual and a V8.
I think I’m right here, but maybe I’m totally off. If I were a rich Porsche collector, I’d definitely have one of these in my airport hangar. What do you think? Will the Cayenne GTS be the next hottest thing at this year’s PCA club meetup? Or is there something else that’s taking off in value that I’m not aware of? Let me know in the comments.
Top graphic image: Facebook
To be fair, when you factor in the buyers premium of 4.5% that Cars and Bids charges, THIS ONE did in fact sell for 6-fiugres. And when the majority of clean manual GTS Cayennes with over 100k miles are in the 30’s, while automatics are barely half that, I’d argue the explosion in values absolutely has started already.
I think a manual Cayenne is an odd choice for a collector car. To me, collector cars are fun because practically need not be a consideration. The appeal of a manual Cayenne is that you can have 80% of the fun of a 911 in a body style that is comfortable and family-friendly.
I could see wealthy car enthusiasts paying big money for one of these to use as a daily driver, though. No one bats an eye at a rich guy driving the kids to school in a G-Wagon or Range Rover – some of these people are presumably car enthusiasts who are willing to spend the same money to get a nice manual Cayenne instead.
You lost me at SUV.
I live near a Porsche, RR, Audi dealership and as a kid, that probably would have been cool to see. Today it will be SUV, SUV, SUV, SUV…
I once saw a yellow gts parked on the curb in midtown Manhattan. The tag read “6speed” As I was staring at it the guy came out and got in. It made the most awesome exhaust note. He lowered the windows enough for me to yell sweet manual gts. He gave me the thumbs up revved it a couple of times, popped the clutch, chirped the tires and took off up the street. Probably the best experience I’ve ever had with a porsche driver.
The last time I saw the 217k example for sale was in 2015 with 125k miles and an asking price of $23k. It’s also a PDCC example, which only about a 1/3 of the manuals have.
I test drove a manual GTS over a decade ago and came away astonished at how “truck” like the transmission felt. It shifted more like my Toyota Van than it did my BMW. Luckily Numeric may have fixed that now with a short shifter kit (I have yet to install it in the manual VR6 I eventually purchased as I couldn’t stomach the GTS w/ PDCC prices).
There are supposedly 342 manual GTS for USA+Canada plus the additional 3 manual Trannsyberias. I’ve collected 313 of the manual GTS VINs, but someone out there supposedly has them all.
I don’t think any variant of the 957 or 958 Cayenne (including a 6MT GTS) would be regarded as particularly cool or collectible if the Porsche sports cars weren’t valued into the stratosphere and inaccessible to most people. Sure, they’re excellent cars…but a manual transmission isn’t worth that much to the experience, and a helluva lot of them have just fallen prey to negligent owners.
I think there are a lot of people who just want to experience the Porsche badge however they can, or are told they should…and this is the most affordable way to do so right now. And it’s not that affordable, in the case of your subject ad. $20K for a careworn example with 217K miles is a special kind of luxury to be able to pay, for a car that will be materially less functional and less dependable than most newer cars and that most people won’t notice or care about.
Even in the ad, the seller’s only justifications for the price are that a) an example of the same car with very low mileage went for almost $100K last month, and b) the production numbers were low. The seller doesn’t say a whole lot about the maintenance and doesn’t present the car especially well.
I have a problem with the Porsche culture in general. Porsche aficionados glom onto some long-discontinued Porsche product, decide it’s the best thing ever, and then everybody participates in a seemingly coordinated effort to heap the highest praise upon that car until its value doubles. Then, it takes off and you have people smugly paying tens of thousands of dollars for a Porsche that–however remarkable it is or isn’t–they’re never going to actually drive to within an inch of its capabilities. They just want to own it. They want to be seen in it. And–most importantly–they want to be able to sell it to the next chap for more than they paid. Rinse and repeat. Twenty yeas from now, they’ll be telling us the Porsche Taycans are THE! BEST! THING! EVER! and trying to tell us we should pay 60% of their as-new-MSRP…you know, the same Taycans that the dealers currently can’t give away and that have sullied Porsche’s heretofore-unassailable high resale values.
And then, on top of that, there’s the shenanigans that are going on with the newer limited-edition cars and trading them back and forth at astronomical rates to keep the values propped high.
So, yeah, the whole Porsche culture is kind of toxic and dysfunctional. To use a Family Guy quote, “it insists upon itself.”
That’s why I’m more fond of British and Swedish cars. No one driving an older Jaguar or a Volvo ever took themself that seriously.
There are a lot of Porsche people that are rather full of themselves. Or compare everything back against some random 911. For me: it gets old, and those people are far too serious for my liking.
And you’re right, the guy who driving a well-kept Volvo240 is probably going to think that an XJS V12 is a brilliant idea (though, not that they’d wish ownership upon themselves) and would likely happily keep you company if you were to complain about why your car is marking its territory everywhere it goes.
I had a 2009 GTS 6-speed manual until 2017, and it was terrible. Pros: It was stupidly fast. Really, scary fast. The seats were great, as all Porsches are. Neighbors knew when the car was started because the startup sounds were awesome.
Cons: It was very thirsty. I think the MPG was regularly in the teens. There was an error condition in the braking system that was aggravated by hot days, and the dealer could never resolve it. The seatback panel of the driver’s seat became unglued. Large, low profile tires and large disc brakes, plus the MPG, meant running costs were high. But even on its best day, the GTS wasn’t great. It was never meant to be a manual transmission, so the ergonomics are bad. For this person in an otherwise valid seating position, the shifter was a little too far aft to be comfortable. It meant a constantly scrunched shoulder to shift gears. The car is pretty beefy on the outside, but inside it is pretty intimate. The cargo area was small. The entertainment system from that era was clunky, and it would start in whatever mode it wanted (radio, BT, CD, etc.) regardless of how you last left it. I may be recollecting incorrectly, but I think it was missing some key comfort features found on its contemporaries such as rear seat climate controls, parking sensors or rear camera. It was too thirsty and wheelbase too short to be an excellent tow vehicle. Vehicle battery was under the driver’s seat.
The GTS was really fast, the 6-speed was a genuine novelty, but together it was not a great package.