I’m currently driving a Rivian R2, and I’ve been impressed by how well it all works. It’s a complete product with a cohesive tech stack that puts a lot of major OEMs to shame. It’s also now Rivian’s best-selling product after being on the market for its first full quarter. It may be too early to call it a hit, but it’s starting to shape up that way.
After years of writing Morning Dumps about how much money Rivian was losing, it’s a nice change of pace to talk about how little money (relatively) it lost in the last quarter. The same can’t be said for quasi-parent (rich uncle?) Volkswagen, which just had its worst performance since Dieselgate.
Unionized auto workers in the United States historically get bonuses if the companies they work for do well, which is a smart way to incentivize good work. Both Ford and GM will probably pass checks this year to workers. Stellantis workers, though, shouldn’t hold their breath.
October will be a good month for car sales, though it’s a little hard this October to know how good. I’ll explain why.
The R2 Is The Best-Selling Rivian Now
Rivian doesn’t break down sales numbers by body style or model, which means we have to use delayed registration data to come to some conclusions. What we do know, thanks to a Rivian press release, is that the just-on-the-market Rivian R2 is now the company’s best-selling model.
I guess I shouldn’t be too shocked, as there are a bunch of pre-orders to fulfill, whereas anyone who wants an R1S or R1T has had plenty of time to put in a reservation. Still, it’s a pretty good sign, because a $100 deposit doesn’t always translate into real demand.
Here’s what CEO and Founder RJ Scaringe told investors:
“We had great results with R2 becoming our best selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter. Customer and media feedback on R2 has been exceptional. Regarding our technology roadmap, our autonomy platform is progressing rapidly, and we are super excited about Point to Point. We are laying the foundations for a future that we believe will be fully electric, autonomous and AI defined. I could not be more excited about the opportunity ahead for Rivian.”
The even better news is on the financial front, where the company has managed to narrow its losses while also rolling out a new vehicle, which ain’t easy. Company revenue is up 38% to $2.2 billion, including a small amount of regulatory credits. The biggest non-automotive line item was $354 million from Volkswagen for software services.
Selling more R2s and vans, which have lower margins, does mean that the financials will shift, but the big number when looking at Rivian is how much it’s losing. A year ago, it lost $1.2 billion, but this Q3 it only lost $913 million.
On a per-share basis, according to Bloomberg, the estimate was a loss of $0.61 per share, but the company only lost $0.48 per share. That is, at the very least, going in the right direction. If Rivian can continue to sell more R2s while also fulfilling its deal with Volkswagen, that’s an excellent sign.
Most major automakers in the United States have not been able to make electric vehicles that are consistently profitable. Other startups, like Lucid, have had major issues. Even Chinese startups have struggled with the financial side of it. Honestly, just being able to launch a second vehicle without (thus far) completely biffing it is impressive.
Volkswagen Posts A $6.6 Billion Loss In Q3
Rivian’s loss seems quite small when you compare it to Volkswagen, which just reported its biggest quarterly drop since Dieselgate, as the pressure from American tariffs and Chinese competition weighs on the company.
The world’s second-largest carmaker reported an operating loss of €5.9 billion ($6.6 billion) for the three months, prompting management to renew calls for radical cost cuts as a fight with German unions looms.
Driven by €8 billion in one-off charges, the loss was Volkswagen’s largest quarterly deficit since the fourth quarter of 2015, when the group booked hefty costs linked to the “Dieselgate” emissions-cheating scandal.
Volkswagen is grappling with shrinking margins as Chinese electric vehicle makers gain market share in Europe after ending the group’s dominance in China, highlighting the mounting pressures facing European automakers.
“We must fundamentally reshape our business model,” finance chief Arno Antlitz said while presenting the results.
Life comes at you fast. Volkswagen has big plans to restructure the company, and it promises to be a huge fight the whole way.
Stellantis Workers Might Be Left Out Of Bonuses, Again
For the second year in a row, it looks like Stellantis factory workers will not be getting bonuses as the company grapples with profitability (or, well, unprofitability). This is not a good look, especially considering that both GM and Ford workers might be in line for low five-figure bonuses as Automotive News reports:
The disparity between bonuses at GM and Stellantis could influence the UAW’s next round of contract talks in 2028. Union members may push harder for pay raises after seeing Stellantis workers left out of profit sharing for several years, said Marick Masters, a labor expert at Wayne State University in Detroit.
“I can see this becoming a major bargaining position taken by the UAW in 2028,” Masters said. “There will be a certain number of workers who are going to say, ‘This profit-sharing formula really doesn’t help us. … It shouldn’t be a substitute for the base pay increases.’”
I hear the pizza parties are great, though.
October Car Sales Will Be Up, But There’s A Catch
A bunch of brands that report monthly car sales will probably have great Octobers. Some of this is just because last October was weak and that the automakers who do report monthly sales are, coincidentally, the ones that tend to have stronger sales right now (Hyundai, Kia, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Ford, et cetera).
Also, there are three more selling days than in September, and one more than last October, which will skew things, as Cox Automotive points out:
According to Cox Automotive’s forecast, sales volume is expected to rise 3.6% from last month and 7.2% from last year. There are large seasonal adjustments that make monthly comparisons challenging. October has 28 selling days, three more than last month and one more than last year. More selling days this month should lead to notably higher sales than in September. However, historically, the sales pace also slows in October, which will mitigate some of the expected increase.
Always count the selling days.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Hey, it’s Roy Parker Jr. doing “Ghostbusters,” which plays every time I start up the Rivian R2 (by my choice). Honestly, never gets old. Also, I totally forgot that Carly Simon and Al Franken are in this video?!?
The Big Question
What new car would you turn into ECTO-1?
Top photo: Rivian
The ecto-1 was cool because it stood out in the 80s. I would say, design wise, you would have a hard time finding a new car that would do that. Maybe rather than a New York/ what ever place Afterlife was set, you could do a 2026 Honda N van and send the ghostbuster after ghosts in Tokyo.
Despite the fact that I really love the brand and its products, I like to get in my car and drive off quickly without having to worry about remote disabling control from the brand. In my line of work (I work with, uh, banks) this is a critical feature.
TBQ- Chrysler minivan, probably a 2001-06 in the actual movie but the tie-in model kit will be of a ’96-00 since the tooling already exists for one.
As an aside, what is Toyota even doing running ads on the Friday before an election when TV time is crazy expensive and they already sell to a waiting list?
Granted, the Tundra playing in the snow on a bright midwinter day is a nice break from the string of four or more negative campaign ads which, I swear, all use the same announcer.
1996 Caprice Wagon. Obvious choice is obvious.
Roy, Ray, it’s all the same to Huey Lewis!
I have a coworker (died in the wool southerner with several walls of guns kinda guy) who about a month ago decided he was done with Chevrolet after his Silverado ate a second transmission in a year, and I mentioned to him that he might want to go take a look at a Rivian and wire up a home charging set up rather than buying another gas truck. He drove a couple and immediately fell for it. He got I think a lease turn in 2025 R1T, and I was extremely impressed by how well it seemed screwed together ad smartly packaged it was. Time will tell if he loves it as much as he has in the immediate aftermath of buying it, but he bought it just before he went on PTO for two weeks so he’ll have a bunch of time to get acclimated to it.
It’s Ray Parker Jr., not Roy (That’s Sam Walton’s dog).
Great, as if software define cars weren’t bad enough, now they’re going to be AI defined.
TBQ: The VW ID.Buzz
I think Eddy Grant’s “Electric Avenue” would be more appropriate as an R2 theme. I get the Halloween/ Ghostbusters association, though.
TBQ: Gen 2 ECTO-1 would be an ID Buzz.
When they first came out, I used to aspire to own a Rivian. Times have changed. Reading the CEO’s quote: “We are laying the foundations for a future that we believe will be fully electric, autonomous and AI defined.”
That just makes me throw up a bit in my mouth. I think these days I’d prefer a 1997-2004 Toyota truck or SUV. Dumb and reliable. Yes, they get about 17mpg, but with my daily use it would be fine and is also recycling!
At best he’s telling Wall Street what they want to hear. It’s amazing how worried flash traders are about getting stuck with a dinosaur and how not-worried they are about AI being the new metaverse
Yes, but not the metaverse. The current situation is way more like the 1-2 punch of the dotcom (AI models) and telecom (hyper-scalers) bubble of 2000-01.
I wanted to like Rivian but everyday it gets harder to ignore that they are just Tesla wrapped in a Patagonia jacket.
TBQ: honestly, might just look through the classifieds for something unique and easy to convert. One of the things that made ECTO-1 special was that it was, in fact, a ’50s Cadillac in the ’80s. It had a visual flamboyance that only ’50s cars have.
But a new car, hm. I suppose an Escalade would do.
The Cadillac Escalade V would make a great ECTO-1
“Hey, it’s Roy Parker Jr. doing “Ghostbusters,” which plays every time I start up the Rivian R2 (by my choice).”
I have the Monty Python Holy Grail music as my wakeup alarm. I imagine that would be an excellent startup theme for a Rivian, especially if you can add coconuts clapping to the throttle input.
Love this. Perhaps I can replicate Floppotron’s cover of “Ghostbusters” in my 90’s Accord with period tech!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XhxUT9vWCg
TBQ: one of the new postal delivery vehicles. The OG Ecto-1 was a kinda goofy looking, repurposed utility vehicle, so that would be a great spiritual successor! Plus, lots of space inside for ghost busting equipment.
Plus plus! The proton packs are nuclear powered, right? Egon (or his successor) could probably rig up an adaptor to keep the vehicle charged while on the move, if there was a particularly busy day.
I’m very happy Rivian is turning the corner- at this point they seem like the only one of the EV startups that is going to actually make it, and I think they picked a smart niche to start with instead of trying to go after the whole market all at once. The make-or-break moment is really going to come down to how good their self-driving is: it has to be competitive with Tesla. I’ve had the chance to ride in a few Tesla’s lately with FSD, and it’s gotten way, way better than it used to be. I would still never buy one because I hate the UX and the interior, but a lot of people don’t mind it and if you just need transportation from A to B and aren’t picky about it, a Tesla that can do 95% of your driving and is competitively priced is really hard to turn down. If Rivian can muscle in to the market with a similar self-driving experience, they will be in a good position for the future.
TBQ: F-150 lightning with the pro work package for the 240V outlet. I imagine that Ghost-Busting requires a lot of recharging of various gadgets, and having available power sockets for all of that seems like kind of a big deal.
New car? Probably a Maverick with a lockable cap, they’re a small, startup exterminator business, that’s what those folks buy, especially now that small commercial vans aren’t really sold here anymore
The joke with the Cadillac was that Ray spent an obscene amount of money on a 25 year old junker that needed everything done to it, when the same or less would have bought a much newer vehicle better suited to their needs
TBQ: A Dodge Hornet, with demon eyes and green underglow. It’ll be scary enough just trying to get it started before each run.