Historically, car buyers have been less sensitive to swings in fuel prices than you might guess. People want the cars that they want, and most consumers seem to view energy price changes as temporary. New data shows that one part of the market maybe doesn’t look at it that way anymore.
I flew from NY to LA yesterday for the Galpin Car Show this weekend and I’m still recovering from the 60-degree swing in temperatures, so thanks to Thomas for taking over Morning Dump duties yesterday. I still have New York on my mind, and I’m glad to see the Chrysler Building is getting saved. You know who might not be saved? One or both of the brothers behind the First Brands fiasco, who appear to have turned against each other in the legal fight over the failure of the company.
Cars & Bids is putting up cars in its second hybrid/live auction, and there’s some great stuff being listed.
My Hybrid Theory Hits The Used Car Market
I’ve mostly discussed the Decade of the Hybrid as a new car phenomenon, as that’s where the initial wave of hybrid growth/EV stagnation first appeared. What about the used car market? New data from Cox Automotive shows that fuel economy is one of the best predictors of value change this year.
The wholesale value of a used car is how economists and dealers look at the used car market in general and the best source of this data is the Manheim Market Report (MMR). Here’s how the MMR normally breaks down values:
Normally, I think of car values in terms of class as well. Is it a luxury car? Is it a truck? That kind of thing. Props to the folks at Cox/Manheim, who made a chart I’ve never seen before and is super helpful:
Look how clear that is! Excluding EVs, in the first three quarters of the year the most obvious predictors of value change is now fuel economy. I feel like it’s not often these days that you’ll get a chart that’s so obvious.
Here’s Cox’s Jonathan Gregory with more details:
That’s a spread of about 25 percentage points in nine months between the least and most efficient vehicles. And because EVs aren’t in this chart, the efficiency premium isn’t just an EV story: hybrids and other high-mileage vehicles are gaining value while the rest of the market depreciates. Some overlap with segment remains, since the low-MPG buckets are still dominated by full-size pickups and large SUVs. But the gradient is steep and orderly enough that fuel costs are clearly part of the story. Diesel is the sharpest example. Diesel vehicles are only about 3% of the units on the ground at Manheim, but with diesel near $6.50 a gallon, diesel days’ supply rose to 39 days in September. That’s 11 days above the overall market and up 27% from a year ago
If you’re sitting on a slightly used hybrid vehicle you might consider that now isn’t the worst time to trade it in.
The Chrysler Building Is Saved
I love when people visit New York and look at the Chrysler Building and immediately go “Is that the Empire State Building?” I get it. The building, while no longer the tallest in the world, is still one of the most distinct.
It’s also been in a longstanding state of disrepair. Like the Chrysler brand itself, though, it sounds like the building is getting a new lease on life.
The skyscraper, opened in New York nearly 100 years ago, will see its Art Deco crown polished and restored during a refurbishment that will also involve the restoration of the building’s 77-storey façade.
Developer Tishman Speyer has taken over the lease from the Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, a private college.
Tishman Speyer and its partners will invest $235m (£178m) in the project, as part of which it will upgrade the 61st floor, which is home to huge eagle gargoyles and will also feature an “upscale” lounge.
That’s fun. The money from the building will apparently be used to return Cooper Union to a tuition-free campus.
The First Brands Fiasco Turns Fraternal
First Brands is/was the megaconglomerate behind many of the best known brands in the automotive aftermarket. The company had to file for bankruptcy after it was revealed that the leadership allegedly committed massive fraud to the benefit of its owner and founder.
According to Bloomberg, both the owner and his brother are requesting separate trials because they plan to blame the other brother for everything that happened:
Patrick, the company’s founder and former chief executive officer, said in court papers that he gave Edward a powerful position as executive vice president because he trusted his younger brother completely. Edward cultivated and managed lender relationships and entered into harmful side deals “which funneled tens of millions of dollars into Ed’s own pockets,” Patrick’s brief said.
“To keep his scheme afloat, Ed lied, shirked inquiry, and concealed his self-dealing from Patrick, who was focused on running the companies he founded,” Patrick’s lawyers said. “All told, Ed’s conduct shows that he alone organized, managed, and directed the alleged fraud.”
And the other side of this? Per Bloomberg:
Edward offers a starkly different account, saying Patrick controlled First Brands while he “played the exceedingly narrower role of sourcing working capital financing for the company.” His older brother got others “to brazenly falsify and misrepresent the company’s financials and pervert the legitimate financing structures that Patrick enlisted Ed to secure,” Edward’s lawyers said in a Sept. 4 filing.
That is messy.
Cars & Bids Goes Live
The renewal of Willow Springs is an exciting story, and long overdue. As part of the big Willow Springs Reimagined event celebrating the upgrades, the folks at Cars & Bids are going to do a hybrid auction (live and online at the same time, not of hybrids), and there’s some great stuff.
Obviously, Doug’s Ford GT is high on the list, having both the Doug provenance and being a Ford GT. There’s a Porsche by Singer, which many people find appealing.
I’m a simple man, though, and I think I’d be happy with the Renault Clio V6.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Now that I’m on West Coast time I have to adjust, because I’ve been living in a “New York Minute” as Don Henley sang… though I’m not sure what a New York Minute is.
The Big Question
Do you care more about fuel economy than you did five years ago?
Top photo: Cox, GM, Honda
Five years ago I was working from home due to Covid. No one cared about MPG.
3-4 years ago? I had bought a used ND Miata and was enjoying the 30+ MPG while I commuted roughly 40k miles in a year. My previous vehicle was my truck that got about 15 MPG
TBQ: In my daily, absolutely. We went hybrid in 2024 because I felt the writing was on the wall, and I’ve tried encouraging so many to do the same (and a few already have, independently)
In my “fun cars” I’m sorry to say I do not particularly care. Even as just a proportion of my own mileage, my old Jeep and truck barely factor, representing at maximum 10% of our yearly mileage in a big year
That isn’t to say I don’t care about the environmental costs, I’ve considered ways of improving MPGs and would love to do so, and I try not to drive excessively on any account, but specifically in regard to sticker shock at the pump, I have never paid one bit of attention.
I have family that will drive across town to save 10c a gallon and I think that’s insane behavior, meanwhile I don’t even bother looking at the price most of the time. Car’s gotta drink, I’ll just let it wherever’s most convenient
THIS
My daily has been a Hybrid for the last 8 years or so. Partner drives much less, but in a still small and efficient older Corolla. I worry less about my SUV as it is for vacations, hauling, abhorant weather – but the Highlander is much better than its predecessors. IMHO every new ICE vehicle for sale should be Hybrid. There is almost no long term downside.
Hey Matt, enjoy the almost perfect 90 degree weather, it’s usually summer forever in California. Of course there’s something called rain forecast for Sunday. I’m not sure what that is.
Five years ago I was working from home and didn’t know how good I had it. Today, I put around 2000 miles a month on my car commuting, so fuel mileage matters a lot. I didn’t expect the move from a 50mpg hybrid to an EV to necessarily make financial sense, since the hybrid was paid off and the EV has a car note, but even at 50mpg the cost difference with $5+ gas we have here in the PNW versus my home electricity has almost made up the entire car note each month.
As for the First Brands mess, I will be fascinated to see how it all shakes out between the two, as there is no way both are ignorant patsies to the other, so they may well be putting nooses around their own necks with this blame storming.
I’m conflicted. I commute to work via bus or bike, but I do drive errands and once a month 3-hour (round trip) routes. I want to buy a Lexus is350 because I love the sound and smoothness of a high-revving V6, and I get tired of the grabby brakes in our hybrid family car. But the fuel consumption is not great for that NA V6. My family and friends are big into hybrids and EVs, and the current administration is hellbent on driving up fuel prices for the foreseeable future, and I plan to drive this car for 15-20 years. Do I settle for a turbo 4-cylinder with more pep but less smoothness and passion? Prices of cars keep going up, so I’d like to buy soon.
I’ve been biking to the office the majority of spring-summer-fall, it helps balance life choices elsewhere. With how little I drive, it shouldn’t matter what I drive – but I still can’t bring myself to get something big as it feels wasteful so I hope what I have just ends up being reliable.
Yeah, to a point. I have the need for a large SUV. A lot of dogs and some kids will do that. An Armada seems to balance out everything except for mileage.. teens seems abysmal, and would mean putting more miles on my fun car when running errands instead of the current family mobile.
Looking at a Highlander Hybrid (not as big and more $.. but 35 mpg..) or Sienna. I think Sienna is the happy middle ground, but my spouse hates Minivans. Gas mileage doesn’t change from the current vehicle, but low 20s beats out mid teens.
Has your spouse actually owned a minivan? A Sienna is perfect for your needs and will haul more crap than a Highlander. Minivans rule.
Nope. I used to drive one for work and it was awesome. The biggest selling point for me was it fit 4 big dudes and a load of new desktop computer boxes. Plus it was kind of quick, which was a bonus. I think I’m going to have her sit in one and go from there.
The recent Siennas are incredibly good cars, especially inside. Rented one and was astonished at the helpful features all around the driver’s seat, overall comfort, how it was seriously fast when needed but almost never sipped gas when being even mildly careful with the gas pedal… wish I could afford one.
Just throw her into one somehow and it might sell itself!
Where’s Shitbox Showdown?
Peter fell asleep at the wheel.
I think Matt needs to ping him and remind Peter of the sacred duty he has been given.
Yes…I must have my Shitbox fix! (also meaning get a Shitbox and…fix it!) ha ha
Don’t we have enough Jeep articles already?
They have all sold
I gotta say…I am actually kinda disappointed that there was no Shitbox Showdown today (at least not yet?) I really, really want to emphasize that I’m usually not one to complain and don’t want to be…especially on the best site ever! I just don’t think a Showdown has been missed since this site started; and it’s my favorite column on this site and it’s the highlight of my day every day, that’s all.
(weekends are other Autopian articles, of course!)
TBQ: I don’t care more or less than I ever have, really. MPGs have always been somewhere on the list of considerations because it has always been highly variable. Where on the list depends on what I wanted the car to do and what was available at the time.
Fun car? Meh, don’t be a total fuel hog but it doesn’t matter all that much. Currently, mine can hit 26mpg highway and maybe 20mpg in mixed use which is fine for a chonky V8.
Daily driver? Much more important but still not the top. Thanks to EVs I can get completely away from gas and still meet or beat all the other requirements with near-zero downsides.
What about a beat-to-hell 20-year-old hybrid? Still not worth anything? 😉
I bought my Prius about 5 years ago, so I’m gonna say no.
The Chrysler building is one of the greatest architectural achievements in the history of mankind, and the fact that it’s sat in a state of disrepair while all of the skinny skyscrapers for grotesque humanoid billionaires to launder money with have taken over the New York skyline is a microcosm of everything wrong with our society.
ANYWAY…fuel economy? It’s always been a consideration of mine within reason. One of the reasons I’ve gravitated towards hot hatchbacks is that they tend to have reasonable fuel economy for their performance numbers, although my Kona N has only achieved a miserable 19.9 lifetime MPG average. My GTI did far worse than the EPA said it would as well but it still hovered a few MPG higher.
That being said I live in what’s widely considered one of, if not the, worst places in the country for driving, traffic, etc. and it’s been getting progressively worse since Orange Man and his cronies took remote work away from pretty much all federal employees. So everything I own will inevitably underperform estimates.
That being said it’s not a financial thing. My wife and I always underspend on cars, so a few MPG difference isn’t really something we’ll notice when it comes to budgeting. It’s moreso that we feel guilty about being wasteful and increasing our carbon footprint needlessly. Obviously I did not put my money where my mouth was last go around, so I’ll be buying an EV in a few years.
We were going to only consider hybrids for her eventual mommy mobile, but with how massive the price delta has become it’s more complicated now. At least in our area you’re paying a huge premium for the privilege of having a hybrid, to the point that you might not make your money back in gas savings at this point. It becomes a more complicated equation at that point, unfortunately. So we’ll have to wait and see, because money is getting tighter by the day….
I make enough that the difference between 87 and premium shouldn’t matter as well. I also remember when the spread was just $0.10 per gallon difference between the typical 3 octanes available. Even then, I felt that I wouldn’t want to pay for premium fuel and avoided such cars – the concept of paying more per mile never sat well when most of my driving, while enjoyable, is to get to and from work (at least in the past). The last 5-10 years, the delta is more like $1 or more per gallon difference, so it definitely came into consideration as someone who consistently drives 24k miles per year. After dabbling in diesel, plug in hybrid and 87 octane turbo fun (Sonata N Line), I moved on to a Y Performance two years ago. For the first year, it was basically a wash on annual fuel costs between my 87 octane turbo Sonata, but this past year I am sure I have an actual savings, although likely still not a huge difference. The noticeable difference is that I now have more power than any of the older premium-swilling cars I dreamed of years ago, more practicality and it costs me less to fuel up than a 27-29-ish mpg combined car running on the cheap stuff. Do I miss the sounds of ICE, sure, but most of that disappears when I toggle from Normal to Sport using the steering wheel button and blast off or around someone before settling back in to a normal crusising speed.
I just saw my first station with over a dollar difference for premium. $4.499 regular, $5.799 premium. Holy cow.
While I don’t disagree with you that the Chrysler building is great, I would say the Flatiron Building is the Greatest (and also in disrepair as it’s now being sold and converted to condos). Plus my Dad had his office in it long ago.
Second the fact about Chrysler building. Empire state is cool, but Batman wouldn’t pick that. And yes, the absolute jewel sitting overlooked is just sad and mind boggling.
The Ford GT is 21 years old and has 45K miles on it… I wouldn’t expect to see stats like that outside of a retirement community. Cars are meant to be driven.
I am about total cost of ownership.
The NB Miata does not get good mileage for the size, but the upfront cost, repair cost and insurance (just basic) make it cheap to drive.
I used to drive a diesel F350 for a mix of mostly shop and some personal driving.
In 1999 when I bought my last one, diesel was bunch cheaper than gas and the mileage was better + we were driving 25,000 + miles a year for the shop.
Makes no sense any more, so a 6.2 gas now.
It’s a good point, my 4Runner struggled to average 20mpg, however I put next to 0 dollars in repairs over the 120K miles that I’d owned it. Just maint and a set of tires.
I think the only “repair” was a $189 AC service at the dealer during year two of ownership.
Personally, not really.
But my daily life is 80% car free. I drive to work once a week or less, riding my bike the rest of the time. Most social activities are in my neighborhood or the adjoining ones so again walk, bike, or bus (free bus pas from my employer) makes more sense. Especially when parking is a pain.
I drive on the weekends to see people, to go places, or to haul stuff. Which means on a typical week I’m driving about 25-50 miles. My Subaru gets 19 in town 25-30 on the roadtrips. So it’s fine.
If I was buying a different car today I would like to get 30 city but that would limit the used car pool to Prius and RAV4 hybrid which I don’t really like.
I live in a similar fashion to you. Found a place in the city with a large shared garden with veggie patch and bee hives. I miss out of an spare bedroom (that I don’t really need) compared to my friends who have bought further out of the city. Really lucky to have this situation where I only need to drive for fun and out of the city and my cars are manual and old I can service them myself.
TBQ:
Fuel economy has always been a factor. But it’s only one part of a 3 part equation:
-Cost of the vehicle/maintenance
-Cost of fuel
-Average distance traveled
9 years ago I was commuting 200km a day. Now I commute 40km twice a week.
9 years ago I had a car payment. Now my vehicle is paid off.
So does it make sense to sell the 12mpg truck that’s paid for to save on my 80km a week of commuting, only to replace fuel cost with a payment?
I track my monthly fuel cost. Once it eclipses the payments for a cromulent EV, I’ll buy an EV for commuting and let the truck just do truck stuff.
Yes and no. I don’t specifically seek out gas guzzlers, but I’ve never had economy be the driving decision behind any vehicle purchase. Every vehicle I’ve ever owned was some sort of compromise with regards to economy.
I have a line of 20mpg. If I can get 20mpg I’m happy. My first vehicle got about 7, then the next was in the mid-teens, so to me that was an economy car.
I drove a 15-17mpg Grand Cherokee for over a decade, then a 19-22 mpg Volvo for 7, then a 19-20mpg 4Runner for another 7. My Ram does a little better than the 4Runner, so I’m doing okay.
Most economical car I’ve owned was a 27mpg 3.8L GM sedan my grandfather gave me when I owned the Grand Cherokee.
Speaking of Grand Cherokees, I went to look at a 98 5.9 LTD just yesterday. Unfortunately it was a rot box.
My Ram is averaging between 20-21 mpg in normal driving, and I have to go in to work two days less than when I had the 4Runner this time last year. My G/F also moved in with me in that time, so I don’t have the 50-mile round trip to her house, and now we take her 30mpg vehicle on most errands. So, I’m using a lot less gas than 1 was exactly 1 year ago. The cost is high, but much better than it might have been. The Ram has a 33-gallon tank, which means I can go over 2 weeks without getting gas, but filling it up when it’s at the 1/4 mark is going to be about 100 bucks.
To offset the fuel cost, I’m trying to cut back on things like going out to dinner and going to breweries. I’ve always been cheap about dining out, but the GF enjoys it. At this point, two meals, an app, and a few beers is a full tank of fuel for the Ram.
I could see a hybrid in my future, I like the idea of the SCOUT, or even a full-on EV like the R2.
Fuel economy has always been important as part of the overall efficiency of the car’s design. It’s not a particularly expensive cost to me since we’re retired, but I appreciate thoughtful design.
I drive a 2015 Fit that I bought new 12 years ago and averages 35 mpg. I have no intention of replacing it anytime soon; anyway, with what?
Kia K3 hatchback would be a good replacement. You can not buy it of course because of tariffs.
When one likes small cars like I do, there’s really nothing available in this market except used (not that I wouldn’t buy used).
And since we live in a condo with a group carport, BEVs aren’t an option I’m willing to exercise. If it were I’d be looking at the Bolt.
I like small cars so I bought a 2023 Kia Rio 5-door, but the process was so complicated. First I had to fill out the form on the website, then I had to talk to the dealer on the phone, then go into the dealer to put down a deposit. I had to explicitly refuse to consider a larger car at both interactions. Six weeks later my car showed up from Mexico for $20,900. You can not even do that now because of tariffs, although the Hyundai Venue is the exact same car built in the same factory but with worse highway mileage. They decided to eat the tariffs on the “SUV” but not the car, because AMERICA.
Thankfully my Fit is 12 years old so I just got taken the old fashioned way…but I love it so I don’t care.
It was exactly like Will Ferrell’s character in Austin Powers, where you had to ask him 3 times and then he could not resist. The third and final refusal to consider a larger car was literally right before they handed me the keys.
I’m going to stand up on my soap box and complain about using MPG as a measure of efficiency. You’ll save more fuel by upgrading from 15MPG to 20MPG (667 gallons burned per year -> 500 gallons = 160 saved) than you will by upgrading from 30MPG to 50MPG. (333.3 gallons -> 200 gallons = 133 saved) given 10,000 miles per year. The most important thing is to get above 20 and try to hit about 30 and afterwards the savings start to diminish.
Agree. My S/O went from a 40mpg vehicle to a 31 mpg vehicle (right before this nonsense started, D’OH!), and the cost isn’t off that much, but the real issue is range. Same sized tank in both vehicles, so she fills up sooner with the newer vehicle.
I also find it hurts less if it’s the right for the job. My daughers stupid Subaru was getting maybe 22mpg. But wasn’t doing anything special, or anything good, just being a pain point a to b. If a truck gets 20mpg hauling something it’s great. If a large full size SUV gets 20 hauling around people and junk it’s fine. Just the cost of doing whatever. Even if you are in something nice that goes fast and drinks gas you are probably ok with it. But a glorified shit box getting terrible fuel economy hurts.
Gallons per 100 miles or kilometers is a better measure, but also intolerably awkward to say. I’m firmly convinced that’s why MPG continues to be used.
“hybrids and other high-mileage vehicles are gaining value while the rest of the market depreciates. “
Yup… fuel economy sells. Many auto execs STILL don’t understand this.
“Do you care more about fuel economy than you did five years ago?”
I have always cared about fuel economy because over my life, I have seen how fuel prices can spike. So I’ve always viewed buying a fuel efficient vehicle as an insurance policy against spiking fuel prices.
And let me tell you… with recent fuel prices, I’m soooo glad I have my plug-in hybrid Ford C-Max Energi.
Mind you when I was in the market back in 2024 when I bought the C-Max, I initially wanted to buy a 2014 Tesla Model S 85. But what stopped me was the insurance quote… CAD$4500/year. By comparison, the cost to insure a Prius Prime or C-Max Energi is around CAD$1500/year.
So fuel economy is very important for any vehicle that I will use as a daily driver. But it’s not the only consideration.
I’ve always cared about fuel economy probably because my dad always did so it was instilled in me. But I’ve understood there were tools for the job and some things take more energy.
I never really just drove around in a pickup. That was always for doing work. I’m less likely to see the value in diesel trucks though. For towing sure. But hauling stuff in beds I’ve been using anything else for that.
Did he have the mini notepad in the glovebox that recorded date, mileage, gallons and mpg? One entry per line, no space for calculations. Want to do the long division, that’s what the back of the fuel receipt was for.
It was all off the cuff. Alot with driving 20 minutes to save a few cents per gallon even when filling something up something with an small tank like his Daihatsu. Sometime he would write the numbers on the receipt and file it away on the floor. At one point he had the Casio calculator watch and was using that for it some way.
I’m waiting on a hybrid Bronco, which Ford keep insinuating is coming, or a Scout, which seems more and more like vaporware horse shit. I love trucks and that’s what I want to drive, but not at 18 mpg.
Gas prices were already pretty low in 1999. A big chain gas station opened up near me and was trying to put the station across the street out of business, so there was a price war.
I was buying gas for $0.799 a gallon. Eighty cents a gallon.
Those were the days.
People got mad during the 2000 election campaign because gas prices went all the way up to like $1.20.
TBQ: Kind of. I work from home so I don’t have a commute and I generally buy fun and/or cheap. Fun cars can use whatever they need. The cheap beaters I have are already fairly miserly.
The first newish car I’m considering buying in too long to remember will be electric. Partially due to high gas prices.
I’ve always hated to pay for fuel. It’s a waste unless it’s for a toy (where, at that point, it’s cost-of-fun)
We’ve always considered fuel consumption when purchasing a car, even when costs are lower: it’s still a considerable proportion of the cost of ownership.
TBQ: Not solely fuel economy, but overall cost-efficiency.
I’ve had a 2000 Saturn SL (40mpg), 2014 Mazda 3 (34mpg), 2017 Chevy Volt (70mpge mixed gas/EV commute), to commute to work.
But I held off on the Volt or any other PHEV because at 34mpg the Mazda was efficient enough that the gas cost savings by moving to a PHEV just didn’t have a reasonable ROI time versus the cost of the PHEV (used).
But then the Mazda was totaled, and so it made sense.
This is me right now (hopefully not going to replicate the car being totaled, though).
My Mazda3 is so cheap to own and run that spending the money on a decent EV or PHEV never pencils out financially. That and I like driving a manual and don’t want to give it up.
It’s still up in the air whether I’d replace it with a hybrid/EV or another hatchback with a stick. I’d really like one of the latest gen Civics with a manual, but those seem pretty rare.
I loved that mazda; it was also a manual. It was cheap to run, and with regular maintenance, I was at 210k trouble-free miles and was looking forward to doubling that… until it was hit. I was so upset; it felt like mourning.
When shopping for a replacement, any <100k mi, <10year old Mazda 3 was >$17k at the time, and I got the Gen2 Volt with a brand new battery, for $13k.
I’ve always driven a manual, until the Volt. I sold out. … Although I do have the manual 996 911 for weekends, so I’m good!
Volt/911 combo does win over just the Mazda 3 lol
The amount of fuel I would have to save to justify purchasing something for any amount over about $1500 just isn’t worth it. Driving my old paid off garbage in the mid-high 20s per gallon is saving me far more than getting a car payment ever would. So while I don’t love it, I’m also not overly worried about the price of gas, despite my 105 mile commute 3 days a week.