The government always picks winners and losers. It doesn’t matter if it’s a more consensus-minded society like Sweden, or top-down authoritarianism like China. Governments pick winners and losers. In America, those losers are anyone in the EV supply chain.
There’s a new article out that talks about the ‘Battery Belt,’ which is a useful neologism for the mostly rural and historically Republican areas that were supposed to be the source of batteries for future electric cars. That’s not happening at the speed most predicted, so what happens to those communities?
The Morning Dump is a news roundup, and all the news today is built around batteries. We know what’s happening, but who is to blame?
Is it the automakers who had too lofty ambitions? Is it the politicians who halted an industrial policy before it could be started? And where does this go?
‘That’s On Everybody’s Mind, Quite Frankly’
Back in 2022, Ford announced it would spend billions building a battery and EV truck-making facility in Stanton, Tennessee. This small town of 450 people would suddenly get thousands of new workers.
This facility was to be a part of the Battery Belt and, maybe, still will be. Ford keeps delaying the project, just like nearly every major automaker with EV ambitions in the United States.
What if it never happens? From the Reuters piece on the dashed dreams of the Battery Belt, that’s the question:
The uncertain fate of these massive, high-tech factories and their employment has rattled the small rural communities that spent years hitching their economic futures to these projects.
“That’s on everybody’s mind, quite frankly,” said Allan Sterbinsky, who retired as mayor of Stanton in December and advocated for the site for years before Ford came to town. Some residents worry that Ford will never follow through on the plant, the former mayor says. Others hope the company will repurpose the 3,600-acre site if demand doesn’t increase for EVs.
A Ford spokesperson pointed to the automaker’s community work in Stanton, including grants to public safety organizations as part of a broader $9 million commitment to the area.
Essentially, the industry was preparing to build enough battery capacity to cover roughly 80% of the current car market, or around 13 million cars. Now? Maybe a quarter of that will be necessary.
What happens to these communities? How did we end up here?
‘Electric Vehicle Subsidies Were… Distorting The Market’
I have already written at length here about how electric vehicle subsidies were, ultimately, bad politics, even if you think they were good governance.
Ford and General Motors thought they’d be clever and use a loophole in the IRS guidance around the ending of the IRA tax credit to extend it for a few months. Both GM and Ford have bailed on those plans after two Republican Senators cried foul.
Here’s the letter from the Senators that explains some of their reasoning:
We write to alert you to a serious violation of Congressional intent that threatens great harm to U.S. taxpayer dollars and ask for your immediate assistance in rectifying this problem.
As you know, Congress recently enacted Public Law 119-21, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, giving working class families massive tax relief, ending the Green New Scam, and fully funding our border security and national security needs. As part of this law, Congress amended Sections 25E, 30D, and 45W of the tax code, which collectively provide tax credits for the purchase of certain “clean vehicles.” These electric vehicle subsidies were costing taxpayers billions of dollars each year and distorting the market for automakers and dealers across the country, and we are extremely pleased that Congress acted decisively to cut these credits off.
Senator Moreno is a car dealer, so you might expect he’d have some sort of sympathy for dealers or automakers who are now trying to move these vehicles (that the previous government pushed).
I think the bit about how these subsidies were “distorting the market for automakers” kind of gives the game away. A 2023 report from Climate Power showed that there were 24 planned battery projects and 11 electric vehicle projects in rural areas, representing more than $20 billion in investments. Because it’s hard to build plants in urban areas, it’s not surprising that most of these plans were in Republican districts. They are in a mix of historically swing and not-so swing Republican states, however.
The political ramifications of potentially killing many of these projects seem, from the Republican side at least, not to be as big of a deal as continuing the tax credit.
‘It’s Going To Be Smaller, Way Smaller Than We Thought’
Credit to Ford CEO Jim Farley for having a quote for every topic. While recently expanding on his belief that we need more skilled tradespeople (we do), he also made a point of being honest about how expectations for EV adoption were not matched to the reality of consumer demand.
Farley on Tuesday said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if sales of EVs fell from a market share of around 10% to 12% this month — which is expected to be a record — to 5% after the incentive program ends.
“I think it’s going to be a vibrant industry, but it’s going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought, especially with the policy change in the tailpipe emissions, plus the $7,500 consumer incentive going away,” he said during a Ford event about promoting skilled trades and workers in Detroit. “We’re going to find out in a month. I wouldn’t be surprised that the EV sales in the U.S. go down to 5%.”
Farley said the industry learned that “partial electrification,” such as hybrids, are easier for customers to accept for the time being.
Even if the Democrats won every seat in every election and the White House, it’s not like all that battery capacity we were building would have exactly been necessary (some plans were being paused before the election). We’d have ended up somewhere in between, or at least closer to in between than where we are now.
Either way, the post-Tesla overheated projections definitely contributed to this mess.
‘It’s Not Something (We), In Any Way, Shape, Or Form, Expect To Give Up’
Could General Motors do the one thing it doesn’t normally do? Could GM be right on the technology and ahead of the market, and not suddenly retreat at the first sign of an obstacle?
Here’s a quote from a Detroit Free Press interview with GM President of North America Duncan Alred:
Still, GM invested significant money and planning to offer the range of EVs it has today. Though the industry is bracing for an EV sales slump, GM’s leaders insist that investing deeply and early in a broad range of electric offerings was not a mistake.
“We believe EVs will remain a strong part of the GM portfolio. Quite honestly, it’s one of the reasons why our market share has grown so much this year,” Aldred said. “It’s not something (we), in any way, shape or form, expect to give up.”
Year to date, GM estimates that its 17.2% market share across vehicle propulsion systems is the highest it’s been in 10 years. So far this year, EV total sales more than doubled to 144,668 vehicles.
Cool? Cool! GM is already deeply invested in its EV project and has approximately a dozen models out there, compared to just three for Ford. It also has affordable vehicles like the reborn Bolt coming to the market.
EVs are the right car for a lot of people, including consumers who haven’t been able to afford one yet.
If everyone else (other than Tesla) is retreating to some degree, it’s maybe not the worst position for GM to be in to soak up all that excess market share.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I started dancing to this in the car with my daughter before realizing I definitely could not allow the song to continue to the chorus. Either way, Nelly’s “Hot In Herre” is a bop. Also, peep that Aston.
The Big Question
What’s low-key your favorite car cameo in a music video?
Top photo: Colombo, Ford
Everyone saw Teslas meteoric rise and success and ridiculous stock valuation. Everybody wanted to be like Tesla. Jim Farley hates Elon Musk so much that he wants to drink his blood and HE wanted to be like Tesla. But Tesla was new and different and people did not buy their cars necessarily because they were electric, but because they were Teslas and not Fords. People already knew what Fords were like – not special. Teslas were different, cool, minimalist futuristic whatever. And people will get tired of them too.
Tesla, at least, built the beginnings of a charging network, Ford did absolutely ZIP. Where is the Ford charging network? Why don’t they team up with GM and VW and MB and everyone else and build a massive charging network? Cheap and lazy maybe?
You know how people talk about “range” anxiety in electric cars? That’s not true, what they have is “charging” anxiety, and for good reason. Tesla has squandered their lead and I believe it’s because Elon has given up on Teslas future viability, because it’s just a car company and he knows it’s not particularly profitable, especially if it loses its carbon credit cash cow, along with the $7500 tax credit. There will be no self driving Teslas, they don’t know how to build them. The Cyber Dumpster is a money losing flop so they basically sell two cars: 3 and Y. Putting Optimus on Mars will not save them.
This is a reality check, that the future is not 5000# (or heavier) electric cars that can’t rove away from major corridors where there be no chargers.
Agreed on all points. Another factor everyone copied Tesla on, is EVs being weird and different for the sake of being weird and different. It’s a plus for the 10-15 % that likes being an early adopter, but that market is very saturated by early Tesla owners.
Stripping most of the expensive and different for the sake of different content would drastically cut cost for both assembly and engineering development.
Has anyone in marketing looked at the site with ads?
Animated ads I can’t shut off, ads I can’t scroll past, ads that suddenly and repeatedly jink in place of text.
If I wasn’t already familiar with the site, I’d back out and block the site.
I do this almost every day with intolerable ads/sites.
Also, has discord been shut down?
I can’t even tell from the information they provide.
I view at this website on a cell phone using DuckDuckGo. I see zero ads.
I use duck duck, but my phone is generally as wonky as a jeeps software, so it may not be the fault of ducks.
Install uBlock Origin and forget ads exist.
They all left Jalopnik to make something different, then proceeded to make Jalopnik2
No Herb needed 🙂
Members don’t see ads, but if you’re not paying for the site, we have to make money somehow. If you’d like to become a member please reach out and we can help make that happen (also, we have like 50% of the ad load of those other sites).
I came from the Battery Show in Detroit this week and had lots of convos with GM, Stellantis, other OEMs, defense orgs, cell suppliers, commercial pack makers, integrators, and other stakeholders of various points. Here is the overview:
Cheap (and very good quality) Chinese LFP is currently killing Sodium Ion, which is fine. Sodium Ion has been overhyped.
NMC is doing ok but only for certain applications where it’s absolutely required.
GM is making a big push to shift from Ultium to LFP, and I think they are trying to make it with domestically made LFP cell. This is a good move, at least for a “base” pack with lower range/cost to compete without incentives.
I had beers with a top battery/cell engineer who has seen it all in the past decade, said that he thinks the ideal cell chemistry in the future will be LMFP… which is LFP that also has manganese in the cathode as well.
LMFP has lots of advantages, but still is going through productionisation hurdles.
So… I don’t think the “Battery Belt” is dead. I just think that there is more happening behind the scenes at OEMs/cell suppliers, more consolidation is needed, and lots of wannabe’s need to just go the fuck away from this industry to reduce the noise.
The U.S. needs to keep pushing the limits on battery tech, or else we will fall further and further behind China. I’m not just talking for EV’s… large BESS installations will become massively more important domestically and around the world. All of those are shifted to LFP now due to cycle life and thermal requirements vs NMC.
Optimus Prime in “JCB” by Nizlopi
“Others hope the company will repurpose the 3,600-acre site if demand doesn’t increase for EVs.”
Why? There will still be a need for big ass batteries. Home energy storage, data centers, renewable energy sites, P/RE/HEVs, off grid living, military, are just a few that come to mind. To think the only market out there are BEVs is ridiculous.
“What’s low-key your favorite car cameo in a music video?”
The gold Rolls Royce in Soft Cell’s Sex Dwarf obviously.
Maybe… The government shouldn’t pick winners and losers?
Re: the song–you could always switch to Weird Al’s “Trash Day” if you need something clean.
Well, it’s still dirty, just in a different way.
I’m just here to say thanks for the Columbo reference.
Also my favorite car cameo is Death Cab for Cutie’s Black Sun video featuring a guy repeatedly being hit by a Challenger. It somehow feels like an action movie and a cologne ad all in one?
Now that I’ve owned an EV for about a year I don’t see myself not having one. I love charging it at home and its genuinely fun to drive. But at the same time I’m not giving up my gas vehicle anytime soon.
My ID4, with a range of just over 200 miles, can handle all the daily duties just fine. But I can’t bring myself to take it on a long road trip. That’s what the gas Grand Cherokee is for. Well that and towing my camping trailer as well as transporting my dirtbike via hitch carrier.
I think a lot of people would feel the same way if they could just get the opportunity to live with an EV for a few months. Obviously it’s tougher for folks in apartments, and you probably still need an ICE vehicle for some tasks, but since I’ve had one I’ve wanted to replace my wife’s car with an EV too, they just make so much sense for 80-90% of our regular driving needs.
Difficult?
I know people in flats that can’t keep their petrol cars charged.
I found good chargers costly, and most poorly built now.
I finally bought a shop grade charger by Rizk Intl.
Not exactly lightweight, but no regrets.
Plants close to the raw materials they need make sense logically. Three have been some big improvements in extracting lithium from oil and gas wells as well as using directional drilling and fracking. That helps some of the nimby folks as they typically picture an open pit mine. The Chinese are going LFP and sodium ion the US despite developing most of the tech and the first small production plants is just getting mass production online for these.
People like the blame everyone but overlook the environmental aspects of it. Manufacturing is dirty mining is dirty refining is dirty. The sales pitch of Bev has been clean and green not dirty and brown. Hiding that dirty side away in developing countries was a calculated choice it was not only cheaper but didn’t have an image problem. On top of that the US has a interesting habit of keeping resources just incase of war. It makes sense it’s just not great to think about.
I don’t know if GM is really ahead they have a platform that is working ok they have the Bev pickup truck that can do the most truck things. The Ford trucklet seems like it’s a step in the right direction. On top of that platform they could have a cuv and that has most people and companies covered.
LFP and longer term LFP and sodium ion mixed packs seem to be the answer for right now. But so much western production has been focused on NMC and if you look at us production a large portion of that is LG pouch cells. They might be great for energy storage but don’t belong in cars. I suspect the Bolt will use lg lfp pouch cells and that’s why it’s just a temporary thing. While Ford will have prismatic lfp cells. Just like there is now ev specific wire where they just used to use welding wire I suspect pouch cells won’t be automotive grade shortly. That will leave Ford ahead.
Are you aware that the heart of heavy steel working no longer exists in this country?
Sold off.
Wildly stupid and irresponsible.
Yep, 50 years of offshoring, bad uninformed decisions and nimby / environmental people that don’t realize we all live in the same bubble. We still have production in Alabama and it seems like everything is moving that way. We also don’t have the helium reserves needed for a lot of things because someone gave a monkey the keys and he thought it was just for balloons so he let it all out.
The helium thing baffled me.
The steel mills I’m talking about are the rolling mills for heavy steel machines from block and bar stock red hot.
We have nothing capable of building that equipment again.
We sold it to Korea, where it is still in use.
I’ve seen what may be one of the bearings for those. Three foot diameter on roller bearings
They get the metal for the navy ships from a plant in Indiana I think owned at least in part by a eu company. It might be the last place in the US that can do anything relatively big . But I’m sure they can’t do what they once did in Pittsburgh, Bethlehem and some of the other us steel facilities.
My metal working friend says we haven’t had the tools or skills to. make equipment like that since the big one was built, so we can’t even replace it.
But inconvenient to have to have such rolling done overseas.
He considers it a national disgrace.
That’s true. I’ve heard people saying that for years and the more you look more people you talk to in many industries the more you see it. There are still people operating wwi and WWII era lathes because they are the only ones that can get the job done. Koreans have be able to build a lot of big things Hyundai and Samsung in busan is something else. The US used to be built all the biggest stuff now it’s all coming out of there. Ironically Koreans have more pride in the US then it would seem most Americans do now. It’s almost like the soul of the county was in those machines.
None of this is an issue unless you are hellbent on war and world domination. So what if we have to import steel from Canada?
It doesn’t take a war to destroy a country without manufacturing.
Peaceful people and peaceful countries get invaded all the time.
The king of Bhutan once had to pick up an AK to defend their country.
What keeps us safe is a world order that keeps everyone safe. When you have a world order of us and them and winners and losers, nobody is safe.
It sounds like you live in Switzerland.
No, that doesn’t fit.
They have one of the strongest tactical defense systems in the world.
How do you expect to get the cooperation of all people everywhere, when you can’t live in even a sophisticated city without locks and measures for security?
We already had such a cooperation, and it has worked reasonably well. It’s called the UN. And no- it’s not a bunch of third world communist sympathizers who started it. It was started by the USA and the first meeting of the UN was held in the USA, and the headquarters and general assembly of the UN continues to be in the USA.
Bill Clinton said a long time ago: “we need to build a world order we can live with, when we are no longer the top superpower”. That is truer by the day.
The Bentley (or is it a Daimler?) in Duran Duran’s “The Chauffeur“. Note that the video is a bit NSFW, particularly after they arrive in the parking garage.
Well, those were some “girls on film.”
Especially the extended late night mix!
An Immense Solar Project Just Got Canceled Under TrumpKnown as Esmeralda 7, the project planned in the Nevada desert would have produced enough energy to power nearly two million homes.
The project, known as Esmeralda 7, would have comprised a sprawling network of solar panels and batteries across 118,000 acres of federally owned land in the Nevada desert northwest of Las Vegas. It was expected to produce up to 6.2 gigawatts of energy, enough to power nearly two million homes.
This headline is from breaking news in the NYT on Oct.10
From the NY Times article:
Evidently the people in charge of approving permits are essential workers and getting paid during the shutdown also.
Everyone is too focused on ‘these batteries are for EVs’. That’s not the case. There’s overlap here with utility level storage, which is exploding in the US. All of that surplus and cheap solar and wind is being put into ever cheaper batteries. The US installed 11 GW of storage in 2024 alone. The figure for 2025, even with Trump trying to mess with the industry, will be even larger. The utility companies know what makes money.
Came to say the same. I’ve read quite a bit recently on “demand smoothing” in California using utility-scale battery storage, and how it is squeezing out natural gas-powered generation that dealt with peak afternoon loads. We need lots of batteries, for lots of applications, very soon, and can’t let our focus on automobile applications blind us to the bigger picture of the battery market.
California managed to get from a token installed battery capacity in 2019, to just about 16 GW in early 2025. Note that a couple years of that growth was likely slowed down under the restrictions of Covid.
“Should we blame the ashes? Should we blame the fire? Or the doctors who allowed him to expire?
“Heck no! Blame Canada!“
The Impala in Gin and Juice
And if there was a vaccine, they wouldn’t take it. Line up, sheep, one by one, and don’t mind the smell of blood, you will be perfectly fine, we promise.
This is one thing I never understood about the COVID vaxx debate: it seems clear the anti-vaxxers are statistically the ones most likely to suffer for their choice… what’s the problem? Is the thought of one’s opponent having to deal with individual responsibility for individual choices that abhorrent?
The issue, and the saving grace of covid, was the varying degree of danger. You could ignore the reality of being sick because it was like other viruses. Because it was Covid and not SARS or MERS, the severity was low for most so the fight was not over sick or well but over personal choice vs society. That why you have the far left and far right both scream personal choice over others safety.
I know many who brought it home and killed parents.
I had it before any vaccine and it’s no joke.
My long covid breathing issues went away in days after getting my first vaccine.
I have no idea if that happens often.
They were, and many on their deathbeds demanded the vaccine, but it was far too late then.
If only it were that simple. Herd immunity is a thing, so if their decision only impacted them, then whilst their suffering is tragic, it is a consequence of their own choices. But unfortunately the decision to not vaccinate has a probability of negatively impacting others, and the more that don’t vaccinate, the more likely the negative consequences for those that do.
I want to be in a community that ensures that everyone gets protected as much as possible.
Except that’s not true, and it’s been known to not be true for years.
Use of vaccines breaks down nearly identically regardless of voting patterns.
Yes, there are morons and whack jobs on both sides, but it’s only one party that panders to the anti-crowd and have become masters in dealing nearly exclusively in misinformation, disinformation, misdirection, distraction, and anti-science rhetoric to stupid, cowardly people. If I believed in vaccines )I do), I wouldn’t vote for a party that spreads BS lies about them. Even if it’s not a top issue for me, the lies and position they take on that one is an indicator of character and the kinds of cretins they are appealing to. And lest you think I’m some other party person, I only hate the other side less. Politicians and their puppet masters should all be fed to endangered carnivores, then maybe we can start over with more sensible rules in place.
GM has arguably the best full lineup of EVs in the country at this point and they’re actually making money on them (or were, prior to the end of subsidies) so I’m glad to hear they’re not abandoning them. It would suck if the Bolt got prematurely killed again.
Although I still want a Voltec Equinox.
I’d lump Hyundai/Kia in with GM for having the best EV lineups at the moment.
Yeah, the only thing HK is missing is a truck. I’m not sure that’s actually a bad thing, but that was my reasoning. GM has solid entries in every category – cars, crossovers, trucks, luxury. They may have been a little slow with some of their EV rollouts, but the results have been pretty top notch so far.
That Ford plant was supposed to be in Virginia.
But our soon-to-be-ex Governor Youngkin nixed it because “Communist Chinese Woke Spy Technology” and “Trans Kids and their Books” and other assorted idiotic MAGA BS.
Of course it’s American-developed technology which was sold to the Chinese when the government programs that enabled it to develop said technology were cut off and the company went belly-up.
Just one more step in the enshitification of America.
I came here to write your comment nearly verbatim. That plant would have driven nothing short of a renaissance in southern VA. I can’t wait until he’s gone, and hope to hell Spanberger wins.
I can’t believe the GOP was dumb enough to trot out literally the female version of Uncle (Clarence) Thomas to be their candidate against Spanberger.
Loathsome Early-Sneers is a hateful old bitter shrew that is just a preview of Klandace Owens as an old woman. She’s gonna get her ass HANDED TO HER.
Spanberger has her work cut out for her to undo all the fuckery Youngkin has done to the Commonwealth, for damn sure.
Spanberger’s video that has Sears doing her Oprah-lite “I am speaking” schtick makes my teeth itch.
I hope you’re prophetic. I thought McAuliffe was gonna be a layup over Youngkin and his bullshit “suburban dad” bullshit.
The plant in Tennessee?
They placed it near no one, then moved so slowly “investors” drove rent prices to Aspen boutique levels, so workers won’t be moving there.
While the excitement spiked, they offered insulting pay levels for skilled labor.
By the time they realized they had tanked interest in working there, they had to double base pay.
The commute will be a killer.
Pay will need to compensate for travel.
As far as I can tell, nothing is happening now.
I’m talking about the one that Youngkin sunk in Pittsylvania, VA.
I know.
It may not be going anywhere in Tennessee anyway.
I am now informed that at least one person is working at the Ford plant here.
That’s all I know so far.
Knight Industries Two-Thousand in David’s rendition of Jump in My Car!
Regarding the battery belt. We need to get this done, like yesterday. China already has this infrastructure up and running and is beating the pants off the USA.
Instead, tariffs that get turned on and off like a light switch are making it nigh impossible to plan for high tech manufacturing ANYWHERE in the states.
We lost to China on electric and battery tech 20 years ago. At this point we should just wait for the companies there to lease or buy the factories here to produce their cars. GM doesn’t want to pay for a plant shift, I bet there are companies in China that will. This is the 80s and 90s Japanese cars built in the US all over again. If we want to make sure its good for us, that us not the US, we need strong unions and strong federal union support.
Government has been to concerned worrying about who can use which bathroom to focus on small matters like technical dominance.
Some of the UAW workers at the GM plant here in town that makes pickups demand that they be able to use the litter box in the bathroom instead. Or at least that what my great uncle told me who heard it on Fox News and nothing was ever substantiated, so there’s that.
When kilowatt hours cost four times as much, only the very wealthy will be driving battery cars.
Whoa, Nelly!