One of the biggest perks of my chosen career is that I’ve had the chance to drive a lot of cars. I did the math and I’ve gotten behind the wheel of more than 1,000 different vehicles, ranging from tiny electric city cars to Bugattis and Lamborghinis. As much fun as it is to drive an exotic, I’m way more impressed by a car company that can make a really good affordable car.
Give engineers all the money and all the time and of course they’ll make an excellent supercar or luxury cruiser. I have never driven a mediocre new Rolls-Royce or Ferrari. It’s so much more of an accomplishment to build a car that a normal family can afford that manages to stand out above the competition. After a lot of talk about cars getting bigger, about people not being able to afford new cars, it’s neither the affordable cars nor the bigger cars that have seen growth this years. It’s the ‘mid’ cars. The practical ones. This includes minivans, a Morning Dump favorite.
With this data, where do you think Volkswagen is planning to go in the United States? Towards larger trucks and SUVs. I guess no one is that worried about affordable cars if there’s no competition from Chinese automakers, and one senator seems to be stopping a plan to block them from selling here. Not that China can afford to keep undercutting everyone forever, as various levels of government in that country seem to be signaling to automakers to stop burning so much cash.
It’s Hip To Be Mid
Cox Automotive put out their Q3 sales forecast update, and there’s a lot of good stuff in it if you’re as obsessed with the car market as I am. The general trends remain, in that consumers seem to still be buying cars even if there are a lot of larger macroeconomic signs that indicate it should be a tougher market.
Not like there’s a lot of growth. It’s going to be both a “mid” year in the parlance of youth, in that it’ll neither be great nor terrible, as well as a “mid” year when you consider what buyers are actually buying. Check out this chart:
Basically every segment is down this year except for subcompact SUVs, midsize cars, midsize SUVs, midsize trucks, and minivans. To clarify, the ‘Mid SUV” is probably drawn from the KBB definition, which means anything larger than a RAV4 but smaller than a Tahoe.
This may seem sort of unexpected if you haven’t been paying attention to the shifting consumer behavior. Here’s Cox’s Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough explaning what’s going on:
Looking at the top 10 segments, which represent 88% of all sales, we see middle ground, or more practical segments gaining. Year to date, the more affordable segments like Compact SUV and Compact Car, priced less than $40K – are down this year compared to last year. High interest rates and high prices are impacting affordability for these segments’ customer base.
However, the more expensive segments like $70K full-size trucks, $78K luxury midsize SUVs, and $83K Full-size SUVs are also down this year. Those segments all saw gains or were flat last year. What is selling are Midsize cars, Midsize trucks and Midsize SUVs. As we stated in March – Mid is In – and in June – and at the end of September, Mid is Still In. And, the family friendly Minivan segment, about as practical as there is, is seeing the biggest percentage gains of all this year.
These buyer trends may be showing a shift towards value in the marketplace. Affordability concerns and economic uncertainty may be leading more affluent segments to lose their customers to the more practical. And, high prices may be leading customers of the more affordable segments to pull-back from buying new vehicles and push them into the used market.
That last bit is what’s really interesting to me. A logical conclusion might be that affordable cars would be more popular, but some of those buyers are being shifted into used cars. While it’s still a K-Shaped economy and there are plenty of buyers at the higher end able to buy a luxury SUV without blinking, the mid-level white collar jobs held by upper middle class people are probably most at risk from AI and so it tracks that those consumers are maybe skipping the German SUV for maybe something a little more practical like a Telluride.
Availability is also key. Data has shown affordable cars don’t sit on the lot for very long, and that trimflation and other factors (tariffs) are making it more difficult to find sub-$30k cars.
Mid is in.
What’s VW Going To Do In The United States?
I’m very much on the record saying that Volkswagen, via Scout, is going to probably end up making a gas-powered Audi SUV in South Carolina. That hasn’t all been hashed out yet, officially, and Reuters reports that this is one of those things the board is considering in Germany today:
VW Group’s supervisory board meets today, with unresolved issues ranging from details of the restructuring to its strategy in the U.S., where the company has lost billions due to painful tariffs.
The automaker wants to pivot towards the most profitable U.S. segments, such as pickups and large SUVs. The board must settle the long-standing question of whether premium brand Audi should get its own U.S. factory or use a new plant under construction for VW Group subsidiary Scout in Blythewood, South Carolina.
At least the pickup is likely to be mid (sized).
China Car Ban On Hold Because Of One Senator
The US Congress is almost certainly going to end up passing a bill that effectively bans Chinese cars. A key step might have timed out with the appearance of a delegation from China led by President Xi Jinping, with 99 out of 100 senators on board to fast track legislation. Unfortunately, the bill’s sponsors needed all 100.
Why wasn’t it fast-tracked? Reuters, via the South China Morning Post, explains:
Republican Senator Bernie Moreno and Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin had planned to seek approval for the procedure – which requires unanimous Senate backing – on Thursday, the same day that US President Donald Trump met China’s President Xi Jinping in Washington.
But instead they will delay things and hold talks with Republican Senator Rand Paul, who had raised some concerns, in an effort to convince him to allow passage, congressional aides said. Paul’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Both Democrats and Republicans think this will pass in the coming weeks.
State-Controlled Chinese Car Companies Are Reaching The Limit Of ‘Burning Cash Every Year’
The funny thing about China’s strong pivot towards carmaking is that it led to a brutal price war that cost the country a lot of money. So much money. It’s a price that the ruling Communist Party might have been willing to pay in the past, but now the party is interested in AI and robotics, which means the tap is being turned off slowly.
One way this has been implemented is in the merging of the joint ventures between state-owned carmakers Guangzhou Automobile (GAC) Group/First Automotive Works (FAW) Group and Toyota.
“That marked a very important start [and shows] that the local governments behind the state-owned enterprises are finally reaching the limit of bearing losses every year, or burning cash every year,” said Feng Xiao, co-head of China industrial research at brokerage CLSA.
Feng predicted a number of state-owned carmakers, including Dongfeng, BAIC, SAIC and JAC, will move forward with potential mergers, either among themselves or with privately owned auto groups. “We’re going to see an accelerating trend of further consolidation in the domestic market,” he said.
The country’s auto industry has the capacity to make 40 million cars, but only buys about 20 million cars internally and exports another 10 million, leaving a huge gap.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s time for fall vibes. I don’t know why “CHIHIRO” by Billie Eilish feels fall-like to me. It just does. Maybe it’s the Spirited Away connection.
The Big Question
Do you own any mid cars of either definition?
Top graphic images: Toyota; GM; Kia
I’ve never been much into Mid. I’ve had quite a few compact/sub-compact cars and quite a few large cars but only a couple of midsize. On the xUV side we’ve had one Midsize SUV but 3 compact CUVs. For trucks and vans, lots of full size, with one compact pickup and one minivan.
As far as trim goes again most of our vehicles have been all or nothing having the top trim and all the goodies on our daily drivers while the trucks and vans have been fleet grade with only key “practical” options like 4wd and extended/crew cabs.
Two big mids here. My wife has a Buick Envista and I just bought a Hyundai Sonata SEL Sport. As others have said, mids have always done the heavy lifting. I traded in a Challenger. Couldn’t be happier.
These days, the centre cannot hold, but the Mid sells great.
TBQ: We do own a minivan (2018 Odyssey), but the other cars we own are compacts/sub compacts, mostly from the 2000’s.
I am happy to hear Minivans are making a comeback. If I could, I would put sliding doors on my NA Miata. Powered sliding doors.
People have always bought mid cars. We just forget historical examples of mid cars. We think the 60’s was full of muscle cars and the 90s full of exciting Japanese sports cars etc.
Mid has always been the move. And mid cars are better than ever, particularly hybrid or electric ones. The appliance is no longer a penalty.
TBQ: I don’t own anything mid because I like performance cars but there’s a reason mid sells.
Why would I not get a mid?
It used to be that each time you stepped up a size, the fuel economy would take a step down. But not anymore. A Hybrid Corolla gets 50 mpg and a Camry gets 51. It also costs pretty close to the same. A hybrid CorollaCross gets 42 mpg and a RAV4 gets 43 and again, they are very close to the same price.
So given a similar price AND the mid-sized gets better fuel economy AND the mid-sized has more room, more standard features, etc,… why would you get a smaller vehicle?
We would because we like smaller. Then again we’re two childless retirees of mid stature and fitness.
Yeah, but in the US at least, where every other car being sold is a giant truck, the roads and parking spaces are oversized for a mid-sized vehicle. Thus the similar price, more features and better gas mileage make sense since they are still smaller than median for vehicles on the road.
Now Europe is a different world of course. Far too many older towns with 2RHA roads and the plague of Full Sized Pickups and SUVs based on them hasn’t gotten there yet.
Mid works. People talk down about taking the middle of the road, but people like the middle of the road because of what it isn’t. It isn’t edge, it isn’t extreme, it isn’t marginal.
Mid is good. What it is, most of the time, is good enough.
In the market for a used Camry, albeit in Canada via Japan. Does that count?
We own two severely mid cars. A Chrysler Voyager and a Subaru Forester. I get the Forester is technically a compact, but in base trim, it’s about as mid as a car gets. And the Voyager is a rental-spec mini-van. They’re 6 and 8 years ago… pretty mid. They have 113k and 60k on them… also pretty mid.
Our fleet has Mid in it, the way I see it: ’10 Camry base model, ’10 Odyssey base model. These cars will probably survive the apocalypse, so bring on the mid, I say.
Not sure if it meets the definition, but our F150 XLT seems awful Mid compared to the fancy pants trucks I see in my town. Wait, is this a humble brag?
TBQ: I own one big car and one smol car so that averages out to having a mid-size car right?
Surprised by the compact SUV numbers, given that both subcompact and mid SUVs were up. Did something popular grow out of the compact segment and skew the numbers here?
Amusingly, the Chinese cars thing seems like a perfect place for some strategic tariffs. If you believe China is unfairly subsidizing their car industry, tax them until the playing field is level(-ish, let’s not insist on perfection here). Making them compete on features and quality instead of just price would be good for basically everyone, but it would also require politicians to do the job they were elected to do rather than just run around campaigning all the time.
A good bit of it is due to Toyota’s production problems with the RAV-4 which is down 32% YTD vs Jan-Aug 2025.
After owning 5 F-150s over the past 30 years, my next truck will probably be a Ranger Raptor. F-150s have just gotten too big. A supercab with 8ft box used to fit in my garage now a supercab short box fits with just inches to spare.
A coworker has a Ranger Raptor, I would say it’s close to the size of a normal F150. But smaller than my Gen 1 F150 Raptor. Interior is smaller, but the lift and fenders make the exterior dimensions seem similar to a standard F150.
News sucks these days. Nothing good ever happens anymore so the news is always just bad, bad, bad. But today, a shining beacon of hope amidst the gloom! People are dropping their crappy little SUV’s and buying minivans instead!! Hooray for the minivans!
I actually consider my two BMWs to be “mid” cars. They weren’t much more expensive than a loaded mainstream car, being fairly low spec cars. In 2011, my I6 BMW 328i (had I gotten a comparable sedan, my wagon was a bit more) was less than $5K more than a V6 XLE Camry (~$35K vs ~$30K), and very similarly if not better equipped, albeit rather smaller. And much nicer to drive. But things were a lot different 15 years ago than they are today. My 2011 3-series is an entirely different experience than a 2011 Camry or Accord or Altima. I think that is a LOT less true today, when 90% of car development seems to be going into software bullshit, and everything that allows cars to be able to drive themselves makes them less engaging to drive yourself. And the price gap has widened quite a bit – that $5K is more like $15-20K today.
And this is ESPECIALLY true in the realm of jacked-up two-box blob “luxury” CUVs, IMHO you are literally just paying for the badge buying a Mercedes GLE, BMW X-something or whatever over a Telluride. None of them are at all special to drive and are basically infotainment tablets with wheels. It used to be subvented leases would narrow the gap enough that it wasn’t that big of a deal to go German in that space, but I get the impression those really aren’t happening at the moment.
As far as cheap cars – good luck in the US market. As I have been saying here for ages, if people wanted cheap cars, the cheap cars that were offered would have been best sellers. And they absolutely were NOT – they barely sold at all relative to the size of this market. Because unless you are just completely wedded to a the idea of nobody else’s farts in the seats, a new Versa or Mirage or RIO is just shitty value compared to a CPO Corolla, Camcordima or RAV4 or whatever for the same money. Or a more used car for less money. So once automakers didn’t HAVE to sell cheap cars to meet fuel economy averages, they started going the way of the dodo bird (accelerated by the fact they no longer needed to lose thier shirts selling them to get their averages up, so the ATPs of cheap cars went up to something a whole lot closer to reality).
Is the Camry still considered mid? I rented one recently and was amazed at how big it was.
Camry’s have been Tardises since they made the widbodies in the 90s. I have a 2004 and it’s shocking how 4 adults can have plenty of room AND the trunk is plenty large. I had a 2026 rental recently and found the interior and trunk slightly smaller than my 22 year old one.
VW analyst looks at chart: “Whoa, look at the potential upside to full sized SUVs!. We gotta do that too.”
It looks like the EPA classifies my RX-8 as a subcompact, and my other vehicle is a 97 Expedition, so nothing midsized there. My wife’s CX-7 is probably mid.
I have a few mid size cars. I would call my older model 3 mid. Some beaters suvs and trucks mid too. But they were probably decent when new. Cars that are supposed to be mid when new tend to be terrible when older. Or the just terrible cars. Like a Forester is probably the most mid reviewed car ever and it’s a terrible car.
I would call our 2016 Forester extremely mid…
TBQ: I don’t own a “mid” in either size or price, but it IS a mid-level trim bought as a compromise during the post-pandemic supply-chain squeeze, a Mazda3 Carbon Edition FWD. I wanted Premium, AWD, and a turbo, but in the end, I opted for a “nicely-equipped” alternative that still included the nifty, red, leather seats.
“It’s Hip To Be Mid”
Based on that chart, it also looks hip to have a minivan!
Somehow the 2010 Outback is considered mid size.
Does an Accord still count as a mid car in their definition, or is it a full now?
I think our 2007 Acura RDX qualifies as “mid”. After driving the Fleetwood, the Jag, or even the Volt, a trip in that thing feels like going incognito.
I’m fascinated by the VW train. Train wreck saga that is. I predict they are switching to big, expensive and profitable vehicles just as everyone and their mother is doing the same while the US economy will have to deal with 10% base interest rate for the next years, or worse – backslide into recession. I think a steady, conservative way of decision making can be sound (Toyota) but boy they’re always betting on the wrong horse.