Looking back to 2016, most automakers have not been able to grow their sales in the United States from what might have been the all-time peak for the market. Toyota is one of the few to pull off the trick, and it’s continued to claw more share nearly every year. But when Toyota hears footsteps every night on the decks, they belong to Hyundai.
The Morning Dump is all about transformation, with Hyundai transforming itself into a full-line automaker that makes everything. Having vanquished Honda, Stellantis, and Nissan, the company has Ford, GM, and especially Toyota in its sights. While Hyundai tries to beat Toyota, Ford is merely trying to match the Japanese automaker with quality.
Honda is considering joining the fight with another plant in the United States, but only if the White House will agree to confirm a trade deal. How much market is there even worth fighting for? According to a new analysis, sales continue to remain mostly stable.
Hyundai Will Launch More Than 100 New Models, Including 50+ In North America, A Ton Of Hybrids
There’s a fun chart over at GCBC that shows how major automakers fared in Q2 of 2026 compared to Q2 of 2025 and Q2 of 2016. This ten-year gap is especially interesting because 2016 was probably peak new car in the United States, with over 17.5 million cars sold, or about 1.2 million more than last year.
Over that time, GM, Ford, Honda, Steallantis, Nissan, and Mitsubishi have all lost ground. The winners? Toyota has grown 7.8%, Subaru has grown 12.5%, and Hyundai Motor Group (Hyundai + Kia + Genesis) grew an incredible 27.9%. Only Mazda grew more, increasing by 33%, but it’s still a relatively small player compared to Hyundai.
The South Korean automaker first built its reputation on low prices, then on having the longest/best warranty, and then on style and performance. Both Hyundai and Kia have gone from being the least interesting choices in most categories to, if not the best choice, at least a close second or third. The company also hired a bunch of great engineers and designers, and was careful to offer both EVs and hybrids, instead of overindexing on EVs.
GM, Toyota, and Ford are the only automakers who stand between Hyundai and the top of the sales charts in the United States, though I don’t think an outright sales victory is necessarily worth it. Hyundai can be more profitable than Ford selling fewer cars, and it’s unreasonable to expect that the automaker will ever top Ford or GM in trucks.
Can it top Toyota, though? Yeah. It might be able to top Toyota. And that seems to be the plan. CEO José Muñoz addressed reporters and investors in Seoul earlier today and his goal is clearly to compete in just about every space and to do so profitably:
“Our fundamentals have never been stronger. Hyundai Motor Group is the third-largest automotive group and the second-most profitable, which gives us the ability to invest while others are pulling back. We are bringing more than 100 new models to market by 2030 with multiple powertrain options and raising our operating margin above 9 percent. We are leveraging partnerships to scale new technologies and opportunities and becoming a physical AI company which will produce and deploy robots and robotaxis.”
The robots and robotaxis of it all I’ll leave aside for now, because I’m more interested in the 100+ new vehicles and the categories they’re shooting for:
The new Santa Fe EREV will arrive in the first half of 2027, representing an uncompromising approach to electrification. The Santa Fe EREV is expected to deliver more than 600 miles of total range, combining an EV-like daily driving experience while addressing range and charging anxiety for customers. The vehicle will be built in the United States at Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Alabama.
The momentum doesn’t stop there. The company is targeting ‘white spaces’ where the brand is underrepresented today. These segments account for roughly 29 percent of all automotive sales, highlighting significant opportunities for growth. These include body-on-frame vehicles, including a midsize pickup, and light commercial vehicles.
While body-on-frame is not a true ‘white space’ because it’s so crowded in the United States, it’s a new category entirely for Hyundai, which only has the expensive, unibody Santa Cruz for trucklet at the moment.
At the New York Auto Show this year, Hyundai showed the clearly body-on-frame Boulder Concept, which is essentially a Hyundai version of a Ford Bronco. While I’m sure Hyundai would be happy to nab some Bronco sales, I do think the Toyota 4Runner is the target. The same goes for the midsize truck that Hyundai is planning, which could be a real competitor to the Tacoma. And then there’s the EREV Santa Fe, which represents a great opportunity for the brand.
My whole sense of Hyundai is that it wants to find that sweet spot where it can sell a bunch of cars without sacrificing margin (the goal of all automakers, though one not every large OEM seems capable of achieving), meaning that it’s aiming way more at the space Toyota fills than either GM or Ford.
Honda Quietly Threatens To Postpone New US Plant If USMCA Isn’t Extended
Honda continues to let the current administration know that it’s likely going to be unwilling to invest the $20 billion it had slated for new production in the United States if the White House can’t the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) extended.
Honda Executive Vice President Noriya Kaihara told reporters at a roundtable in Washington the automaker is close to full production capacity in North America and needs a new factory.
However, “if there is no USMCA agreement in the future, we may have to change our direction,” Kaihara said, adding the company will need to make a decision within a year or two and would like the plant to be running by around 2030.
He said currently Honda is not passing on the costs of tariffs to buyers in North America. The U.S. imposed 50 per cent tariffs on US$20 billion of Canadian products on Saturday, and Canada said it was retaliating effective September 8.
Because Honda has a decent tariff rate for its Japanese-built cars, it might, net, be cheaper and easier for the company to just import more cars, or at least easier given that Japanese automakers aren’t paying tariffs on parts its using to build cars there.
It’ll Be Years Before We Really Know If Ford Fixed Its Quality Problems
David and I got to chat briefly with Ford CEO Jim Farley in the lobby of a hotel during Car Week, and one of the takeaways is that, hopefully, Farley will come onto our podcast to explain his views on right-to-repair.
Jamie LeReau over at the Detroit Free Press also snagged time with Farley as well, and his conversation centered around the tough decision to sideline trucks until they could fix the quality. In theory, it worked, and Ford topped Lexus in the most recent J.D. Power IQS study, so the company is heading in the right direction.
Here’s a quote from that piece:
“The real impressive part of Toyota and many of the Chinese (automakers) as well, but especially Toyota, is their sustainability of what they do,” Farley said. “They never drop the ball. They never go backwards. They don’t think there’s an end. At Toyota, we had a really famous saying, that I think about every day: No problem. Big problem. In Toyota, even if you are perfect in quality and you’re beating everyone, no one is happy. You’re going for perfection.”
How long will it take? Analyst Karl Brauer tells the Freep we won’t really know if Ford actually nailed it for a while:
“The real challenge is executing high-quality new-vehicle launches and production over a period of five, 10, 15 years,” Brauer said. “That’s what Toyota has done — created a reputation for high-quality cars based on decades of producing long-lasting vehicles that suffer minimal post-purchase issues. That kind of consistency goes beyond any single person or team, because people and teams change. Toyota has mastered the art of making high-quality vehicle production a company mantra that goes beyond any single person or team. That’s what Ford has to do, and it won’t be easy.”
Check back into the TMD in five years.
August Car Sales Will Be Down A Bit, But Generally Stable
Here’s a chart:
It’s from the monthly sales estimate for August from Cox Automotive, and you’ll see it’s mostly negative. A lot of this is because last year there was a rush of buyers flocking to EVs before the tax credits ended, so the numbers are going to probably look lower in August and September of this year and then magically look a lot better in October or November.
“August new-vehicle sales continue to hold up well despite significant economic uncertainty and ongoing trade disputes dominating many news headlines,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive. “High gas prices, interest rates that are trending higher, and historically low consumer confidence have not discouraged new-vehicle buyers from making a major purchase as much as might be expected. The current market continues to remind us that new-vehicle buyers today are more affluent, with excellent credit or cash reserves, and may not be as impacted by inflationary pressures as other consumers. If the economy and stock market can remain on a growing but volatile path, new-vehicle sales will likely continue to follow.”
SAAR, which is a bit more stable of a measure, is 16.3 million, which is only a little off the 16.5 million in August of last year.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
There is no one single Dolly Parton song that can capture this amazing woman’s legacy, her generosity, her goodness. I’ve often said that she’s the greatest living American, and it’s impossible to imagine now who can replace her. She was an angel who shared 80 years with us flawed mortals, and the hope that cuts through all this sadness is that we now have the best case scenario for humanity advocating for us in heaven. Even though it makes me tear up every time, “Coat of Many Colors” is probably my favorite Dolly Parton song as it embraces her spirit of generosity, kindness, and her beautiful perspective on the world.
The Big Question
Who will be the three biggest automakers in the United States in 2036. In what order?
Top photo: Hyundai
‘These include body-on-frame vehicles, including a midsize pickup, and light commercial vehicles.”
A small(ish) BOF 6’ bed pickup would give you a huge market all to yourself.
50 new models is far too many new models of cars