Remember when scrolling through the second-hand car classifieds felt like being unleashed in Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory? There was such a wide selection of used cars available within budget, especially if your budget was on the modest side. Now though, things seem weirdly tight. Actually, things are weirdly tight. Cox Automotive just released a retail pricing support and guess what? The average used car is now the most expensive it’s been in years.
Meanwhile, Lincoln has facelifted the Nautilus and ditched a controversial styling trend, Lucid is giving the Gravity some extra muscle, and the ruggedized-looking crossover trend has come for Nissan’s entry-level Kicks. All this on today’s edition of The Morning Dump.
The Average Used Car Is The Priciest It’s Been Since 2023
Have you looked at the used car classifieds recently and felt like you were living in Bizarro world? While pricing of second-hand cars dipped considerably following new vehicle supply recovery from the chip shortage, it feels like everything’s back up again. Actually, it doesn’t just feel that way; it is that way. Now there’s data to back that hunch up.
Automotive retail software juggernaut Cox Automotive owns something called vAuto, which is a dealer inventory management program. That’s not hugely interesting on its own, but it results in a ton of data, including retail list prices. You can think of this as the trailing indicator to the Manheim Index of wholesale vehicle values’ leading indicator. Unsurprisingly, the report for July was released on Friday, and it shows that asking prices for used cars are higher than they’ve been since the summer of 2023.
Retail used-vehicle sales increased modestly from June in July, bucking typical seasonal trends as inventory edged higher, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data. The used-vehicle market otherwise remained stable in July, with average listing prices essentially unchanged for a second consecutive month at $27,028, though still 6% higher than a year ago.
“Essentially unchanged” is an understatement considering June’s average asking price worked out to $27,027. Still, not only is that figure finding stability in what is a historically slow month, it’s $1,631 higher than it was in 2025. Given how we’ve moved past the production constraints of 2020 and post-chip-shortage cars are starting to come in as three-year lease returns, what gives?
Well, a lot. Since 2022, America has lost about a quarter-million units worth of used vehicle inventory, and a combination of factors is at play. Outside of the electric vehicle space, leasing’s been in the dumps for the past five years or so, and while the number of three-year-old used cars for sale has been increasing, a drought of lease returns compared to historical norms means late-model-used supply is especially tight and pricey. Historically, a situation like this would likely result in some used-car buyers cross-shopping affordable new models, but we’re not exactly in a cheap-new-car arm’s race in North America. Combining strong second-hand demand with expensive new vehicle transaction prices has resulted in huge knock-on effects reaching far down the list of used car age brackets. As Cox Automotive wrote:
Prices rose across every age group year over year, with the steepest gains occurring among the older, lower-priced vehicles. Listing prices for vehicles 15 years and older rose 13.9% compared with a 3% increase for vehicles under five years old. A larger share of younger vehicles in the sales mix also contributed to the higher overall average.
Perhaps the most painful result is the sharp decline in used vehicles for sale under $15,000. That price bracket makes up just 16.4% of all used-vehicle inventory, down from 20.6% a year ago. We’ve already seen that Americans are holding onto their cars longer, and with some buyers being priced out of late-model vehicles, the pressure on older models is immense. Add it all up, and not only is it harder to afford a used vehicle now, but the conditions for a traditional path back to normal haven’t really existed in quite a while. While a glut of off-lease EVs over the next few years should ease the trend of high prices slightly, the era of widespread cheap 15-year-old used cars is, to a degree, over. Hold on to what you have if you can, folks.
Trend Reversal
Speaking of trends, let’s talk about one of the more divisive styling elements that’s gained a lot of traction over the past half-decade or so: The front light bar. Sometimes it’s done well, like the continuous bar of pixel-shaped elements across the front of the Hyundai Ioniq 9. Most of the time, though, it’s not, with gaps between the headlights and the central lighting element making things look cheap. The good news is that we seem to be slowly moving past that latter execution. Case in point: Lincoln has facelifted the Nautilus and, in the process, thrown the light bar across the grille in the bin.
Okay, so the updated Nautilus does feature a wide black bezel around a now-even-larger upper grille, but it can also be optioned with a fascia that’s far cleaner than that of the outgoing car. A simple rectangular lower grille, a pared-back headlamp treatment, and a new hood with a flatter leading edge combine to look unusually unfussy. Out back, a new two-bar taillamp treatment pairs with a simpler valence. Other than some new color options, the interior’s basically unchanged, and choices of powertrain remain a pure-combustion two-liter turbocharged inline-four and a variant of that same engine with a hybrid system. There’s nothing really groundbreaking about the 2027 Lincoln Nautilus, but the elimination of the front light bar is rather pleasing. Can more automakers with suboptimally integrated front light bars please take note?
Remove Before Flight
While we’re on the subject of posh crossovers, if you want a really quick one, there’s a new three-row option for speed merchants. At Monterey Car Week, Lucid unveiled the Gravity GT-S, and it’s the most potent seven-seater you can buy. We’re talking 1,070 horsepower, which the marque claims is good for zero-to-60 MPH in 3.1 seconds. On paper, that’s not quite as quick as the Rivian R1S quad-motor, but it should still give your whole family the speed giggles. Even the dog.
Great power requires great control, so every Gravity GT-S will come equipped with the Dynamic Handling Package. This bundle of four-wheel steering and three-chamber air ride already gives the Gravity Grand Touring impressive agility, so it should be able to handle the output of the GT-S no problem. While this isn’t an utterly bonkers Sapphire model, it’s also not priced like an Air Sapphire. The Gravity GT-S starts at $125,900 plus freight (likely an extra $1,850 if Lucid doesn’t hike that fee by the fourth quarter), and only has four extra-cost options beyond premium colors: Tan “Tahoe” leather for $1,250, third-row seating for $2,900, upgraded advanced driver assistance for $6,750, and a $950 towing package. All things considered, that’s not bad, undercutting the Porsche Cayenne S Electric while adding the option of a genuinely spacious third row.
Can You Kick It?
The Otterboxed crossover trend isn’t going away anytime soon. Instead, it’s spreading, sinking its tendrils into high-riding unibody vehicles, big and small alike. Knowing that people will gladly sacrifice a little quietness to look cool, Nissan has given the Kicks the Rock Creek treatment, and it’s weirdly adorable. Yes, Nissan’s littlest U.S.-market crossover now comes in a trim level that includes a new grille, new valences, unique 18-inch wheels, all-wheel drive, and a roof rack made of proportionally enormous tubes. The result? Awww.
Granted, you don’t get all-terrain tires, skid plates, or increased ground clearance in the Kicks SV Rock Creek, but that won’t matter to a lot of people. All-wheel drive, an off-road mode just in case, and easy-clean upholstery are more than enough to do some mildly dirty work. Probably best not to drive this thing over the rocks or up the creek, but it should get you to the trailhead. The Kicks Rock Creek gets you some nice amenities too, like heated seats, a heated steering wheel, a 360-degree camera system, and rear seat heater ducts. However, there is a catch: At $30,385 including freight, it’s $50 more than the slightly more upscale SR trim level. Losing the big digital cluster but getting some heated surfaces? In the snow belt, that’s still a deal though.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Even on desk duty, it’s been a long and exciting night with all the Monterey Car Week debuts. You’ve probably already seen the Mustang Dark Horse SC Convertible piece I smashed out around midnight, but there’s more where that came from. A proper late writing sesh continuing into the morning calls for something rhythmic. Something like Overmono’s “Diamond Cut.” Yeah, that hits the spot.
The Big Question:
With used car pricing so expensive compared with historical norms, how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?
Top graphic image: Honda
Considering I’ve just started offsetting a bunch of commute miles to a motorcycle, I figure my 04 TDI Golf will still last for forever, despite already having 300k on the clock. It’s the 06 Magnum RT that I need to do some serious maintenance on to keep around for another 20 years.
I like my car, no issues, but I really wasn’t planning on it being my “forever car”. In a 2021 German luxury sedan that I may drive for far longer than I originally planned, it’s a good thing my commute is 5.7 miles, roundtrip.
I’m not sure how long the daily driver ’95 Tracker can hold on, but it seems to be running strong! I’m pretty attached to it, so unless it gets totaled, my needs in life change, or it needs a new engine at a time when replacing it doesn’t work logistically, I’m hoping it will last a good while longer. I’m hoping for 4-5 years, at least
My 2013 Volt has been running great (electrically). Unfortunately when the engine runs, it sometimes throws a motor sensor fault. Has not been an issue for two years since my commute has been short enough to live with EV only, but this fall the commute will be significantly longer and I’ll probably need to trade it in for something else…It’s a real shame, because I overall like the car, it’s rust free, and does a great job of handling 30 or so miles a day. Probably the least expensive car ($/mi) that I’ve owned in a long time.
My wife’s car is older than what is typical for use for two reasons.
A. We bought it in 2022 and I simply wasn’t willing to do what we normally do and buy a 3 year old used car. So we basically swapped even and sold my wife’s lemon of a VW wagon and bought a similar age Acura wagon.
B. We are about to retire, sell our house and cars, and travel full time for awhile. So at this point I’m just hoping nothing else breaks between now and when we sell it.
Our oldest is 16 yrs, the baby is only 4. Cars, I mean cars.
Congrats on the upcoming retirement, and one hell of a change. Best of luck. I thought we’d be doing the same thing, but life changes.
Thanks. Yes, it is a big change and a lot of work. For us we pretty much knew that where we live today would not be a forever home. Nice place to live when working but expensive place to live when retired.
Our current lineup won’t change until our Slate arrives hopefully this time next year. Until then, my Scout is at the spa getting massaged and painted, and I’ll drive my A6 with kid gloves… Both are great vehicles for what they are, they just don’t line up with our retirement goals. I’m dreading going through the process of selling both of them, and excited at the same time to buy my first new vehicle. Now I can take a trip up highway 1 without being distracted by the rapidly moving needle on my fuel gauge and smile that I filled the battery via our roof (and have power steering and AC to boot).
My wife’s XC90 will be replaced one part at a time over the next twenty years.
eh, maybe but i’ve noticed a lot more people selling their extra cars and less people who are serious buyers.
TBQ: My seven year old VW Golf wagon satisfies me in every way (yes, go there if you must), but it’s irreplaceable with any current vehicle offering. So my stress consists of having some dipshit crash into it and writing it off. Or a hail storm or something. So now I don’t drive it enough. I know it’s the most banal vehicle there is, but I get the garage queen thing now. If I could let it go there just isn’t anything to replace it with.
A hail storm could be a blessing from the heavens. Insurance company writes it off and then you buy it back for auction price. Some purely cosmetic damage becomes money in your pocket.
TBQ: My current daily I’ll be passing off to my son once I’m in the market for a new car in a couple years.
My brain says I should get the Integra A-Spec Tech 6MT with how stupid gas has gotten (WA).
My heart says Type-S though.
” how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?”
I figure my 2017 C-Max has at least another 6 years or 150,000km of life in it… which is to say that I think it should last for up to around 320,000km and 15 years old before it’s taken out by rust or some other major issue.
And really, any car can be kept on the road indefinitely if you keep throwing enough parts, labour and money at it.
My C-Max was totaled at 275k miles due to an accident (not my fault) and I had planned on driving it to at least 300k before it’s untimely demise. Sadly, I replaced the transmission at 260k miles (myself, so only cost was the transmission itself and my time) and thought I could get 2 more years out of it, the payout basically covered the cost of the transmission due to the high miles.
Nice. I hope my C-Max lasts as long. If it does, it means I’ve only used about about 40% of the original transmission’s life so far. And based on my 25,000km/year of driving, it should last me another 10 years.
How much did the transmission cost and how many hours did it take to install? What was the hardest part of swapping the transmission?
And how long did your original battery last? Mine is original and still holding up well… still get 25-35km per charge (15-22 miles)
So, actually, it was it’s 3rd transmission. When I pulled the transmission and ran the code on it I discovered it was a 2015 transmission (my C-Max was a 2013.) I bought the car with 115k miles on it. However, the second transmission failure wasn’t due to the bearing failing (the standard problem,) it was because the ring gear cracked in half. 2nd transmission showed no signs of bearing failure when I took it apart to see what was wrong with it.
I never changed the battery, so as far as I know it was still on the original one. Mine was just a hybrid, not an Energi.
Transmission cost 2200, I got the newest one I could within a reasonable distance. The hardest part is actually separating the incredibly heavy transmission from the engine once both are out of the car. As front wheel drive transmission replacement goes, it’s actually pretty easy once you accept you have to pull the engine/transmission as a package. The whole thing slides right out of the front quite easily once everything is disconnected and moved out of the way. I’d say the whole thing took like 15 hours, although I wasn’t killing myself trying to do it as fast as possible, I do have other cars to drive.
As testament to how much I liked it for delivering, I bought an Escape PHEV to replace it.
Yeah the early C-Max had a lot of issues with bearing failures that was completely resolved by mid-2016… based on the research I did. I’m hoping I never have to replace the transmission in mine. I specifically looked for ones that were late 2016 or newer.
So it was mid 2015 when they started having the better transmissions, that second one I put 150k on it, and it wasn’t new when installed. One thing you do have to do that’s a bit weird is update the car’s computer with info from the new transmission (the shift strategy) but the code you need is printed on a sticker on the transmission and I used ForScan to do it.
TBQ: I think I can keep my current arrangement going for awhile. I work from home many days, and days I need to go out into the field I use a 2018 Ram 2500. My other vehicles are a 2009 MX-5 and a 1996 F-150, both of which are well sorted and low miles. I don’t put many miles on them monthly, so they should be good to go for a long time.
My current daily driver is a ’99 Jeep XJ with 240k miles on it. I’ve told my wife it’s a permanent member of our fleet, barring getting totaled beyond repair. I even have another engine sitting around for it that I’m planning to rebuild and bore and stroke.
That said I have been looking for a used manual transmission sedan to use as my daily driver.
TBQ. I thought my ’09 Outback would have died a while ago, especially now that it’s dealing with the winters in the Northeast but it’s still chugging along. I’ll keep an eye out for a crazy-good deal on a wagon but am not actively shopping right now – knock wood.
I’d planned on keeping my unicorn 2005 Legacy GT 5mt wagon for the indefinite future when I bought it in spite of having 195K on the clock bc the previous owner replaced most of the big money stuff and there’s stlll reasonable parts availability for it but I’m finding that at 6’5″ I really don’t fit well in it on longer drives so bad timing for me to be thinking about selling it and buying something else, though this very much tracks anecodotally with what I’ve seen in my daily scan of FB Marketplace. Probably related but I swear I’m seeing less good stuff for sale too so it seems like people are holding out to see what happens next.
I sorta kinda passed my blue samesies car on to my daughter. I was trying to see what I could get her to get my unicorn back; her wants list was 1. Keep the GT. 2. If it breaks too badly to fix, must have manual. 3. Miatas are too SSSLLLOOOOWWW dad.
I’m not getting it back, but I’m happy anyways.
That’s awesome! Mine is Atlantic Blue so we may have the exact same car (unless you have the dark blue). I’m jealous of your daughter lol I would’ve loved this car so much if somehow it existed when I was in getting into cars in high school.
That’s awesome she likes it so much, somehow in my head it’s such a nerdy IYKYK car that I wouldn’t expect someone young to think it’s cool. Kinda hilarious the GT has spoiled her for a Miata, but I get it, would be hard for me to go back to a slower car lol. Gotta be a safer car for a young driver than a Miata so I don’t imagine you hate that.
We just put $4000 into our 2015 Silverado with a new transmission. Still have to fix up rust and I hate the truck, but what truck can you get that is decent for less then $5000? The other 4 vehicles are mostly working, and we’ll keep them running too. Nothing beyond the year 2007 is exciting to buy for me, but I might be an outlier in the market.
TBQ: I plan to hang onto my 2020 Honda Fit indefinitely. Given how the early thirdgens are starting to show up looking rusty at age 10 I think it’s time to start enhanced anti-rust measures (on top of the weekly trips to the car wash) but expect it’ll be a “drive it to the junkyard” car anyway, I just want to do that as far in the future as possible.
On a note related to that and the Kick Rocks Creek or whatever, my work buddy’s wife has a Kicks SR and if you’re wondering who buys the top model, apparently nobody does but the lease deals are there if the dealership wants to 1)Keep you as a customer, 2)Get you out of their hair, and 2b)Get you out of a Leaf back into a gas car so you don’t keep using their “free charger for customers” on a weekly basis.
At this point, as long as the cars we have will keep going. We lucked into a nice, one-owner $2,000 2007 Acura RDX last year with 157,000 miles on it and over the course of 3,000 miles I’ve changed the transmission-fluid and motor-oil, replaced all four struts, both front sway-bar links, rear brake pads and rotors, left rear brake caliper, two stripped wheel-lug studs, re-secured all of the exhaust shields, and found a pesky parasitic drain. I’m hoping that’s about the end of the nickel-and-diming for awhile. Luckily the parts for it have been cheap.
This morning the 2012 Volt’s windshield-wiper motor decided to quit working, so there’s another issue to deal with. Not sure how much longer that car is going to hold out anyway, but I do plan to at least fix the wipers. Fingers crossed, maybe we’ll get another year out of it.
My ’94 Fleetwood just received a new primary fan motor and thermostat. It’s our trip car with 142,000 miles on it currently. Hoping to push it to at least 200,000. Everything but the power driver’s seat currently works.
The ’99 F-250 could use some work, but it’s still on the road. Makes for a decent backup when the others need issues addressed.
When the Volt had its issue this morning, it was hard not to see the irony of jumping in the ’66 Biscayne, our other Chevy 4-door, to deliver my wife to her job. I do plan to keep putting miles on that cruiser whenever possible. Pretty sure I could rebuild that car back to spec for a few thousand and drive it until the end of time – those old Chevy inline-6 engines were pretty stout.
Our 2014 Spark is sitting out back with a bad bearing in the transmission. I was thinking of junking it, but with used prices where they’re at maybe I’ll attempt a rebuild if I can find the time.
Getting close to paying off the new roof we put on around three years ago and was thinking of finally buying a new car, but just recently received my daughter’s first bill for college: $10,150, which is likely more than all of those previously mentioned cars are worth put together.
I’ve noticed a couple segments of used cars that have been falling in price. The first being late 40’s and early 50’s rides with six cylinder and three-on-the-trees. Basically, run-of-the-mill drivers from that era seem to keep dropping in price as more of them come to market. The other is street rods. I’ve noticed several rather nicely built examples showing up for under $20K as their current owners have aged out of the hobby. Having helped a build a few long ago I appreciate the crazy amount of work that goes into a nice one.
is mileage considered in the used car prices? I would think most of these used cars were bought during covid, and people drive less than they did
The Kicks is compact and has stubby little overhangs and decent clearance. I’ll bet you could get it down some surprisingly rough roads before overworking and killing the rubberband transmission.
Frankly, it’d be a fun task to try.
“With used car pricing so expensive compared with historical norms, how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?”
It will cost more to replace it on the used market but it’s also worth more on the used market, so I’m not sure my timeline has changed at all.
“Remember when scrolling through the second-hand car classifieds felt like being unleashed in Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory?”
Still is. I visit the Showdown every day, you can’t tell me there isn’t a smorgasbord of well-kept well-priced used cars out there /s
TBQ: I had my last daily driver for 20 years (it was a 3 year-old used car when I bought it). Miles and parts becoming unobtanium are what drove me to replace it. Current daily is a 2022 Mazda3 hatch that I bought new. Barring external forces such as some idiot crashing into me or a vengeful deity dropping a tree on it, I don’t see myself replacing it until miles or parts availability start taking their toll sometime late in the next decade.
TBQ: My current daily driver is a 2002 Mazda Protege5 with 190k miles. I am hoping to keep it running for another 60k miles. The paint is looking old, but it has no rust, so there is hope.
Regarding Lucid: do we really need vehicles with 1070hp? That number (and associated price) just blows my mind.
With the Nissan Kick Rocks you are paying over $215 per hp and Lucid is almost $100 less per hp at around $118 so really the smart thing is to spend 1.5x the US median annual household income on a really fast minivan.
Well, when you put it that way…
🙂
TBQ: My current “Fleet” consist of 23 and 13 year old Civics, and I could likely drive them forever, as long as the rust stays minimal.
I just dumped a ton of money into the 03 to replace the front brake lines, and now I’m considering selling it, I don’t drive it enough, and it really deserves better. Given the current market I should be able to double what I just spent on getting it roadworthy again. It’s got a lot of little things wrong though, and I feel the need to fix those before moving it on.
I’m hoping my current daily driver will be gone by the end of the month. The GR Corolla I ordered has been sitting in the port since the 5th.
When my grandpa told that Nissan dealer to go Kick Rocks or he’d be up the Creek, I didn’t think they’d take it so seriously.