Remember when scrolling through the second-hand car classifieds felt like being unleashed in Willy Wonka’s chocolate factory? There was such a wide selection of used cars available within budget, especially if your budget was on the modest side. Now though, things seem weirdly tight. Actually, things are weirdly tight. Cox Automotive just released a retail pricing support and guess what? The average used car is now the most expensive it’s been in years.
Meanwhile, Lincoln has facelifted the Nautilus and ditched a controversial styling trend, Lucid is giving the Gravity some extra muscle, and the ruggedized-looking crossover trend has come for Nissan’s entry-level Kicks. All this on today’s edition of The Morning Dump.
The Average Used Car Is The Priciest It’s Been Since 2023
Have you looked at the used car classifieds recently and felt like you were living in Bizarro world? While pricing of second-hand cars dipped considerably following new vehicle supply recovery from the chip shortage, it feels like everything’s back up again. Actually, it doesn’t just feel that way; it is that way. Now there’s data to back that hunch up.
Automotive retail software juggernaut Cox Automotive owns something called vAuto, which is a dealer inventory management program. That’s not hugely interesting on its own, but it results in a ton of data, including retail list prices. You can think of this as the trailing indicator to the Manheim Index of wholesale vehicle values’ leading indicator. Unsurprisingly, the report for July was released on Friday, and it shows that asking prices for used cars are higher than they’ve been since the summer of 2023.
Retail used-vehicle sales increased modestly from June in July, bucking typical seasonal trends as inventory edged higher, according to Cox Automotive’s analysis of vAuto Live Market View data. The used-vehicle market otherwise remained stable in July, with average listing prices essentially unchanged for a second consecutive month at $27,028, though still 6% higher than a year ago.
“Essentially unchanged” is an understatement considering June’s average asking price worked out to $27,027. Still, not only is that figure finding stability in what is a historically slow month, it’s $1,631 higher than it was in 2025. Given how we’ve moved past the production constraints of 2020 and post-chip-shortage cars are starting to come in as three-year lease returns, what gives?
Well, a lot. Since 2022, America has lost about a quarter-million units worth of used vehicle inventory, and a combination of factors is at play. Outside of the electric vehicle space, leasing’s been in the dumps for the past five years or so, and while the number of three-year-old used cars for sale has been increasing, a drought of lease returns compared to historical norms means late-model-used supply is especially tight and pricey. Historically, a situation like this would likely result in some used-car buyers cross-shopping affordable new models, but we’re not exactly in a cheap-new-car arm’s race in North America. Combining strong second-hand demand with expensive new vehicle transaction prices has resulted in huge knock-on effects reaching far down the list of used car age brackets. As Cox Automotive wrote:
Prices rose across every age group year over year, with the steepest gains occurring among the older, lower-priced vehicles. Listing prices for vehicles 15 years and older rose 13.9% compared with a 3% increase for vehicles under five years old. A larger share of younger vehicles in the sales mix also contributed to the higher overall average.
Perhaps the most painful result is the sharp decline in used vehicles for sale under $15,000. That price bracket makes up just 16.4% of all used-vehicle inventory, down from 20.6% a year ago. We’ve already seen that Americans are holding onto their cars longer, and with some buyers being priced out of late-model vehicles, the pressure on older models is immense. Add it all up, and not only is it harder to afford a used vehicle now, but the conditions for a traditional path back to normal haven’t really existed in quite a while. While a glut of off-lease EVs over the next few years should ease the trend of high prices slightly, the era of widespread cheap 15-year-old used cars is, to a degree, over. Hold on to what you have if you can, folks.
Trend Reversal
Speaking of trends, let’s talk about one of the more divisive styling elements that’s gained a lot of traction over the past half-decade or so: The front light bar. Sometimes it’s done well, like the continuous bar of pixel-shaped elements across the front of the Hyundai Ioniq 9. Most of the time, though, it’s not, with gaps between the headlights and the central lighting element making things look cheap. The good news is that we seem to be slowly moving past that latter execution. Case in point: Lincoln has facelifted the Nautilus and, in the process, thrown the light bar across the grille in the bin.
Okay, so the updated Nautilus does feature a wide black bezel around a now-even-larger upper grille, but it can also be optioned with a fascia that’s far cleaner than that of the outgoing car. A simple rectangular lower grille, a pared-back headlamp treatment, and a new hood with a flatter leading edge combine to look unusually unfussy. Out back, a new two-bar taillamp treatment pairs with a simpler valence. Other than some new color options, the interior’s basically unchanged, and choices of powertrain remain a pure-combustion two-liter turbocharged inline-four and a variant of that same engine with a hybrid system. There’s nothing really groundbreaking about the 2027 Lincoln Nautilus, but the elimination of the front light bar is rather pleasing. Can more automakers with suboptimally integrated front light bars please take note?
Remove Before Flight
While we’re on the subject of posh crossovers, if you want a really quick one, there’s a new three-row option for speed merchants. At Monterey Car Week, Lucid unveiled the Gravity GT-S, and it’s the most potent seven-seater you can buy. We’re talking 1,070 horsepower, which the marque claims is good for zero-to-60 MPH in 3.1 seconds. On paper, that’s not quite as quick as the Rivian R1S quad-motor, but it should still give your whole family the speed giggles. Even the dog.
Great power requires great control, so every Gravity GT-S will come equipped with the Dynamic Handling Package. This bundle of four-wheel steering and three-chamber air ride already gives the Gravity Grand Touring impressive agility, so it should be able to handle the output of the GT-S no problem. While this isn’t an utterly bonkers Sapphire model, it’s also not priced like an Air Sapphire. The Gravity GT-S starts at $125,900 plus freight (likely an extra $1,850 if Lucid doesn’t hike that fee by the fourth quarter), and only has four extra-cost options beyond premium colors: Tan “Tahoe” leather for $1,250, third-row seating for $2,900, upgraded advanced driver assistance for $6,750, and a $950 towing package. All things considered, that’s not bad, undercutting the Porsche Cayenne S Electric while adding the option of a genuinely spacious third row.
Can You Kick It?
The Otterboxed crossover trend isn’t going away anytime soon. Instead, it’s spreading, sinking its tendrils into high-riding unibody vehicles, big and small alike. Knowing that people will gladly sacrifice a little quietness to look cool, Nissan has given the Kicks the Rock Creek treatment, and it’s weirdly adorable. Yes, Nissan’s littlest U.S.-market crossover now comes in a trim level that includes a new grille, new valences, unique 18-inch wheels, all-wheel drive, and a roof rack made of proportionally enormous tubes. The result? Awww.
Granted, you don’t get all-terrain tires, skid plates, or increased ground clearance in the Kicks SV Rock Creek, but that won’t matter to a lot of people. All-wheel drive, an off-road mode just in case, and easy-clean upholstery are more than enough to do some mildly dirty work. Probably best not to drive this thing over the rocks or up the creek, but it should get you to the trailhead. The Kicks Rock Creek gets you some nice amenities too, like heated seats, a heated steering wheel, a 360-degree camera system, and rear seat heater ducts. However, there is a catch: At $30,385 including freight, it’s $50 more than the slightly more upscale SR trim level. Losing the big digital cluster but getting some heated surfaces? In the snow belt, that’s still a deal though.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Even on desk duty, it’s been a long and exciting night with all the Monterey Car Week debuts. You’ve probably already seen the Mustang Dark Horse SC Convertible piece I smashed out around midnight, but there’s more where that came from. A proper late writing sesh continuing into the morning calls for something rhythmic. Something like Overmono’s “Diamond Cut.” Yeah, that hits the spot.
The Big Question:
With used car pricing so expensive compared with historical norms, how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?
Top graphic image: Honda
I’m catching up on old news here, but the big jump in 15+ year old vehicles is likely a tell on consumer revolt against buttonless interiors/touch screen everything. I am this buyer, and personally refuse anything newer than 2008ish. Plenty of cars had terrible infotainment before the 2018 backup camera requirement, but most were still acceptable in 2010ish. Not to mention that era was mainly Port Fuel Injection, rather simple electrical systems, and enough safety equipment to survive most accidents.
TBQ: Im at a stage in life where i own both of my “attainable dream cars” that do literally everything i need to be done by vehicles. A 2016 GTI – 2 Door, manual. Fun, quick, practical daily driver. And a 2005 4Runner V8 – Camping, ski and bike trips, hauling stuff, pulls a trailer when needed and dominates the road in winter.
I only drive around 15,000kms per year so i dont see why i cant keep these beauties around for MANY more years
I was just cleaning out some stuff and found a 1968 road&track with a wanted for a Ferrari 205GT for $2,500., or $24,000 adjusted for inflation
So, yeah.
I have been looking at used sport sedans for over a decade now, and decided that the savings vs. a modestly optioned new car are not worth it.
Wanted to buy a new car this summer, but would rather we were not in an active war when making such a financial commitment.
I would be willing to bet another factor in the front lightbars disappearing story is the fact that the cybertruck pretty famously has one of those and nobody really wants to be associated with that nonsense.
What I really want is an old truck but with an electric motor…. so I’ll be swapping my daily for a Slate in 2027.
The only problem with old trucks is so many are rusty, but the Slate has a plastic body so that’s another reason to buy it.
Please fix the spell check fail. The part of the bumper is a Valance, a valence is part of the atoms that comprise a bumper.
As for used car prices I drive old beaters because I don’t commute and only do few long trips every month. I have no plans to buy new or even near new unless I have a financial windfall. the two 2026 Toyotas I recently encountered left me cold.
I thought the Nautilus looked fine… I think it’s worse now, front the pic you showed us.
I also want to kick this Kicks out of existence. It’s ugly.
“The Big Question:
With used car pricing so expensive compared with historical norms, how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?”
I’ll hold on to my current daily driver as long as I’ve held my past daily drivers. Until something structural collapses due to rust and it’s no longer safe to drive. Then I’ll either sell it to somebody who likes to weld and is looking for a project, for parts, or I’ll limp it to the scrap metal yard and get rid of it for scrap value.
My GTI is long paid off, and since I work from home it’s got low miles. I just had to fix the first mechanical issue it’s ever had in its 11 years of existence. Yeah, I’m driving it until it breaks enough that I can’t repair it.
I had a 2017 GTI from new until late 2024. I still miss it, and almost no one believes I had no issues with it. It was tuned almost from new and still on its original clutch and brake (pads and rotors) at 85k+ miles. I think the 5k oil change intervals was key.
100%! I do mine every 12 months like clockwork. I drive way less than I used to, so I go by time these days instead of mileage.
I plan on my car outlasting me. I’m 71, and I love my Fit. It’s a very low VIN, so I hope to donate it to Honda. It’s 12 years old with 103K miles, and my mechanic says it’s been so well maintained it should go well over that again. At roughly 8k per year you can see the math.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/26426975@N02/37873148496/in/album-72157695446557291
I had planned on buying a second fun car, but, while I can swing it, $15K is already more than I’d want to spend.
Where have all the great wheel designers gone? The Lincoln and Nissan wheels are ugly. The Lucid’s may be as well, but there’s too much motion blur to be sure.
“With used car pricing so expensive compared with historical norms, how long do you reckon you can hold onto your current daily driver?”
My first gen Volvo XC90 is probably good for quite a while yet. It’s 22 years old now, which makes it the youngest of the three cars I own by a fair margin (the oldest is 37). Being ‘of age’ it needs this and that taken care, and I’ll get to all of it eventually. The most annoying thing about older cars (IMO) isn’t the big-ticket items IMO… at least not for models without known major likely expenses, like the IMS bearing on Porsches. Rather, it’s the sum total of all the small things: hoses, belts, bushings, engine mounts, and such. Cumulatively, these things probably cost more to mend than a set of shocks/struts, or brake rotors, or other components that you expect to have to replace eventually. All the rubber bits in the suspension, along with the engine mounts, tend to make the car feel old when driven, and they can often be a PITA labor-wise to replace.
But anyway, my XC90 has had some of those soft bits replaced, so it’s good for a while yet. I could go buy a used Hyundai Ionic 5 to take its place, but really: I don’t have to, so I probably won’t.
My Ranger is staying indefinitely unless something catastrophic happens to it. Very low mileage and less than 5 years old.
Her Impreza is a bit older, but low-ish miles for the age and still in decent condtion. We’ve half-heartedly talked about replacing it with some flavor of BEV/PHEV and some point.
Both vehicles are paid off, so it’s nice not having a car payment for at least a little while.
I plan to be buried in my ’11 BMW wagon. I’m going to be like the old guys today who are still driving the BMW 2002s they bought new in the ’70s. Probably keep my ’11 BMW convertible a long time too. Zero reason to replace them at 59K and 75K respectively. Any cars I buy are going to be OLD. I really want another Alfa Spider though, so possibly the BMW convertible gets sold for that – trying to simplify my life, and fewer cars is part of that.
It should surprise no one that used cars are getting more expensive. The dollar is getting ever smaller. There was a MAJOR new car supply drop due to the pandemic, new cars are both stupid and stupidly expensive, and people are keeping cars longer today. Cars LAST longer today too with fewer major problems. That is a heck of a tide raising all the boats.
TBQ: Till they either break catastrophically or they get wrecked. Could be today, could be decades from now. Parts are, at least for now cheap and readily available. I even have a few gallons of fresh 20k oil and filters stocked just in case.
Thankfully rust is not part of that math and the multiplier for natural disasters is low.
This is so relevant to me. My rusty 10 MT Sportwagen that I bought for $5k 3 yrs ago apparently isn’t very replaceable, so I decided to spend $650 and a weekend to do brakes and suspension. The used market is terrible. Everything in my price range needs work. The amount of money I spend is less than one car payment for a relatively new car. If I get another year, it’s worth it.
TBQ: Till the wheels fall off.
Ditto. And I’ll spend what it takes to forestall that day.
Same here. Keep it going without breaking the bank.
Well, it’s a 1994, soooo…. Longer?
Saw a gravity on the street in front of my house. Was nice, liked it. Deep thoughts by parsko.
I like the Lucid Gravity too, but so much tech, and closer in reality to six figures than to $50K means that I’d never buy one new. If they turn out to be semireliable at 5-10 years old, and Lucid is still around to support them, then it’s something I’d actually consider buying.
I saw one drive by my house, to my surprise. They look nice but I’m just not going to spend that much, and there isn’t a Lucid service center anywhere close by.