Next to Tesla, Rivian is the most popular all-electric brand in the United States, which is somewhat remarkable given that up until recently the company has only sold a midsize-ish truck and its SUV twin. There’s a new Rivian on the market, and it looks like people are buying it. One reason? It’s way more affordable.
Lucid, on the other hand, has one expensive sedan and one expensive large SUV. As Morning Dump followers know, Lucid is in a bad way and now it’s seen its sales go in the opposite direction of Rivian as it tries to retool ahead of its own delayed launch for its affordable vehicle. Ford is on the verge of revealing a new affordable car, along with four more affordable cars. What are they?
Nissan has managed to continue to grow in this market, and I do think one of the reasons is that its cars are still relatively affordable. Over-under on how many times I’m going to use that word?
Rivian Sales Were Up 45% In A Difficult Q3
One of my strongly held beliefs about the car market is that affordability is a completely relative phenomena. What is affordable to me is not affordable to you. The average transaction price is around $50,000, but that’s not a number most people likely consider truly attainable. The ‘Keating Line’ is around $35,000, and I think that feels like a better number, but doesn’t cover a lot of people.
A key way that affordability is relative is, of course, what kind of vehicle you’re getting. While $35,000 is a lot to pay for a subcompact crossover like an HR-V, it’s about average for a compact one like the CR-V, and a great deal for a midsize SUV like the Honda Pilot.
The Rivian R2 looks like a winner. It’s an attractive vehicle from a well-liked brand with a high-level of capability. In theory, it’ll cost under $50,000, though I think most people will end up with an R2 that’s closer to $60,000. Even on the high end this is still about $20,000-$30,000 less than a price for the larger R1 or R1S.
You can get a lot of EVs for that price, but you can’t get a Rivian for that price, and the Rivian name carries a lot of weight. For that reason, I’m not surprised that in its first full quarter Rivian posted deliveries (sales, basically) of 19,248 vehicles. The company doesn’t break down sales, but that increase is a 45% over Q3 2025 (when people were rushing to lease cars before the expiration of the tax credit).
As TechCrunch points out, if Rivian can hit its goal of selling 20-25,000 R2s before the end of this year it’ll make it the second fastest selling EV of all time (after the Model Y). This goes a little further to answering my question from last October, which is: Can Rivian survive long enough to deliver the car we all want?
The car many people want is the R2. The car I want is the Rivian R3, which is a little smaller and a little cheaper. The company still has to report its financials, and it’s possible that it cost too much to deliver these cars. Investors are certainly hoping that higher-than-expected sales might be pointing towards lower-than-expected losses.
It could be worse, as Rivian is not Lucid.
Lucid Production Dropped, But It’s All Part Of The Plan
Lucid has a new CEO and is trying to save cash and reset after a series of setbacks. I remain skeptical about the company, which earlier this year announced it was delaying its midsize crossover.
The Saudi-backed automaker put out a statement saying its production was down a little bit, as was always the plan:
Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806 vehicles during the third quarter of 2026.1 Deliveries exceeded production as the company continued to execute its planned inventory reduction, converting existing vehicle inventory into customer deliveries as part of the previously announced operating reset targeting $1.4 billion of cash flow improvements in 2026. Demand for the Lucid Gravity continued to regain momentum.
As part of its operating reset, Lucid continued to align production with near-term demand. Production declined sequentially, consistent with the previously announced elimination of a second shift at AMP-1 in June, while deliveries were above production as the company reduced existing vehicle inventory.
Rightsizing production to demand in the near-term is logical, but Lucid has to eventually find a way to create more demand if it wants to continue to exist. Rivian is showing that’s possible.
What Are The Five Affordable Vehicles Ford Is Building?
Ford CEO Jim Farley talked to NBC News and said the important things one needs to say about building affordable vehicles.
“People are squeezed,” Jim Farley told NBC News in an interview. “It’s our responsibility — Ford, the Model T — to bring more affordable vehicles to the U.S.”
He then said that the company was on the verge of producing five affordable vehicles (NBC News says “five more,” though I thought I heard five). What are these vehicles?
There’s the UEV platform, which will produce the Ford Fathom EV pickup and two more affordable vehicles. That is three. It’s rumored that the Escape is going to come back as a more OG Escape-sized, hybrid-only crossover. That’s four. What’s the fifth?
Nissan Hits Its 19th Month Of Year-Over-Year Growth
Nissan has a new CEO, new energy, and, eventually, some new product. In the meantime, the brand definitely found the bottom a couple of years ago and by merely having a mix of affordable cars has hit its 19th month of consecutive sales wins and its 13th month as the fasting growing brand in the United States.
It’s also not just the company dumping Rogues on rental fleets, as the company says fleet volume is down:
The brand’s retail sales increased 6.8% during the quarter, driven by strong demand for its core truck and SUV lineup. Frontier remained the fastest-growing truck in the U.S., with retail sales up 44% year over year. Rogue retail sales rose 41%, and Armada retail sales increased 42%, reflecting strong customer demand across the portfolio. Pathfinder cumulative retail sales delivered its second-best third-quarter retail sales performance ever.
Nissan continued executing its strategic focus on retail sales, prioritizing customer demand through its dealer network while reducing rental fleet volume. As a result, rental fleet sales declined 45% year-over-year during the quarter and 33% year-to-date. At the same time, Nissan recorded the largest increase in customer loyalty among major automakers and improved inventory efficiency, reinforcing the company’s disciplined approach to supporting long-term dealer profitability and sustainable growth.
Note, the much better (on paper) new Rogue wasn’t even out yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is it bad to admit that I first heard “Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand” by Primitive Radio Gods I heard the BB King sample as I’ve been down Hardy, baby as in the oft-crowded Hardy Toll Road in Houston and not I’ve been downhearted, babe as King actually sings?
The Big Question
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? What’s the fifth (or sixth) vehicle Farley is talking about?
Top photo: Rivian
Outstanding song choice for the day.
TBQ: I think they need a hybrid Escape as you said, to fight the Rav4 and Rogue market.
A fully hybrid sedan or 5-door hatch in the class of the Civic and Corolla as well.
Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand is a great song right up until the end when it turns into a cacophony where I rapidly reach for the next track button.
New Ford is a new PHEV Capri (I can dream).
TBQ: I think Ford needs to bring back the Focus. Make it a hatchback, with hybrid and ICE versions. No dual clutch automatics, if possible – traditional reliable automatics will do. Keep it under $30k for the base-but-good-enough trim. And with a few non-gray color options, please.
If it must be battery-electric, then fine. But keep it under $30k.
And no, we (I, really) don’t need a Focus RS. Although an ST version might make sense (and I think would be good enough).
PS. I am also waiting for the Rivian R3, with fingers crossed wishing for a price I can afford.
I totally get the appeal of a Rivian, and if I were in the market for a new vehicle would seriously consider one. Then I’d realize I was paying $10–$20k more than I should on a new car and look elsewhere.
Hopefully Ford leans into the rugged vibe with their new EVs. Maybe that’ll put downward pressure on Rivian. A lot of us want EVs, but not all EV buyers want an egg shaped pod. The general aesthetic of the Mav but EV would be cool.
Also, if Rivian wanted to allow Android Auto/Apple Car Play, make the panoramic roof optional, and not force such huge wheel sizes, that’d be great.
Wheel sizes tend to move in only one direction, up. When my 19’s wear down on the PHEV Prius, I want to downsize to the 17’s.
Wheel sizes are driven by the brake sizes, which are driven by weight, which is driven by battery size, which is driven by range pressure.
I get it, I always want to go smaller on wheels, but the OEMs are between a rock and a hard place.
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? Some kind of “Car”??? that is not a Mustang.
Wait, all of a sudden $50,000 and in reality closer to $60,000 is now considered affordable for a “good” EV? Come on…
Say what you will about Elon (and I won’r disagree) all those Model 3s and Model Ys out there can’t ALL suck. (Spoiler: they simply don’t no matter what the average keyboard warrior posits) and most are often far cheaper than that.
The GMs, especially the Chevy ones are cheaper and decent and have a huge convenient dealer network, same with the now defunct Honda version
The Hyundais and Kias are compelling, many for far less
Even some of the Europeans are priced less.
I think it’s time we redefine “Affordable”. Rivians are nice and probably “Premium” but maybe let’s give it a few years to see how they really shake out, especially in a lower priced tier.
What is “affordable” is something like the Equinox EV. What’s MORE than affordable are any number of higher quality Chinese models, not available here but as you yourself posted very recently available in other developed market.
Ford’s Fathom may turn out to be quite good at an okay price. Or it may suffer from all the recalls Fords normally do, see a massive price hike shortly after intro, and inevitable suffer from dealers trying to move people into an F150. And not everyone wants a pickup truck in the first place.
But $50k-$60k being a good and affordable price point all of a sudden for an EV? Can’t really agree.
Yeah- maybe it’s “affordable” as an up-market outdoorsy lifestyle vehicle. But certainly not when viewed as an alternative to the options you mentioned.
You articulated this sentiment better than I did in my comment. The site that shall not be named just published an article on the Kia EV3, which looks truly enticing, and even the top trim is under $50k. It can be done, but no one seems to want to anymore.
Bringing an affordable hybrid crossover into the market in a slightly smaller package is a very smart idea for Ford. Calling it the Escape is probably smart as well.
Having a lapse between the old Escape and a new Escape and leaving an Escape shaped hole in your portfolio is not a smart move. You never go full Stellantis.
Hybrid transit connect built on the new escape platform to go with the uev van? Multiple of ev SUVs on uev? Hot hatch ev like the Capri. A au falcon style ute ?
R3 is the vehicle many more people seem to be after then the R2. Rivian has a chance to steal Subarus demo. They might be a bit with the R2. But R3 and R3x have the potential and then some. R3 truck could also be good.
The fifth vehicle is the new 2-door RWD Escort, styled like the UK mk1.
Nah, it’ll be an SUV called something to anger fans of an old Ford. RS200 maybe, or Mexico, or, Christ they already did the Puma, so Focus?
Now, if Rivian made something that didn’t make a Model Y Premium look “affordable”, that would be swell
Sideways says the Focus. That would be great., though it’s probably another effing SUV.
The Big 3 went upmarket with SUVs/trucks, abandoning the affordable/sedan end of the market, just when our country needs more affordable vehicles. So it really irked me when I saw several midwestern congressmen introducing legislation to completely ban Chinese made vehicles, which may be the only place left that can manufacture affordable vehicles for the foreseeable future. Buying a new vehicle will soon be something only the wealthy can handle. This really bothers me more than it should.
MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN
….and make it a liftback, you fools
I see a lot of, “Rivian is gonna make an actually affordable car guys, watch,” followed by a lot of justification of a price that is unattainable for exactly the sort of people that would benefit from just such an EV. New cars aren’t affordable, and calling them that doesn’t change reality.
New car pricing has been entirely unsustainable for years, and it’s fueled only by greed and a lack of competition. This is why every automaker in the US market fears China. They know they’ll lose when consumers are given a realistically affordable option, and then the jig of wildly inflated pricing is up.
f o c u s
The affordable Ford they should build? A new Taurus sedan and wagon
TBQ: Kia Picanto rebadged as a new Festiva?
I’m calling it: Ford is bringing back the bugeye EXP.
The Focus is coming back, watch.
I thought their new focus was quality?
Which, considering what recalls cost, really should be an automatic thing and not something one should have to refocus on.
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or clever so, either way….nice.
The slogan writes itself. You could put Farley on TV with a new Focus EV.
“Our Focus…is quality.”