Next to Tesla, Rivian is the most popular all-electric brand in the United States, which is somewhat remarkable given that up until recently the company has only sold a midsize-ish truck and its SUV twin. There’s a new Rivian on the market, and it looks like people are buying it. One reason? It’s way more affordable.
Lucid, on the other hand, has one expensive sedan and one expensive large SUV. As Morning Dump followers know, Lucid is in a bad way and now it’s seen its sales go in the opposite direction of Rivian as it tries to retool ahead of its own delayed launch for its affordable vehicle. Ford is on the verge of revealing a new affordable car, along with four more affordable cars. What are they?
Nissan has managed to continue to grow in this market, and I do think one of the reasons is that its cars are still relatively affordable. Over-under on how many times I’m going to use that word?
Rivian Sales Were Up 45% In A Difficult Q3
One of my strongly held beliefs about the car market is that affordability is a completely relative phenomena. What is affordable to me is not affordable to you. The average transaction price is around $50,000, but that’s not a number most people likely consider truly attainable. The ‘Keating Line’ is around $35,000, and I think that feels like a better number, but doesn’t cover a lot of people.
A key way that affordability is relative is, of course, what kind of vehicle you’re getting. While $35,000 is a lot to pay for a subcompact crossover like an HR-V, it’s about average for a compact one like the CR-V, and a great deal for a midsize SUV like the Honda Pilot.
The Rivian R2 looks like a winner. It’s an attractive vehicle from a well-liked brand with a high-level of capability. In theory, it’ll cost under $50,000, though I think most people will end up with an R2 that’s closer to $60,000. Even on the high end this is still about $20,000-$30,000 less than a price for the larger R1 or R1S.
You can get a lot of EVs for that price, but you can’t get a Rivian for that price, and the Rivian name carries a lot of weight. For that reason, I’m not surprised that in its first full quarter Rivian posted deliveries (sales, basically) of 19,248 vehicles. The company doesn’t break down sales, but that increase is a 45% over Q3 2025 (when people were rushing to lease cars before the expiration of the tax credit).
As TechCrunch points out, if Rivian can hit its goal of selling 20-25,000 R2s before the end of this year it’ll make it the second fastest selling EV of all time (after the Model Y). This goes a little further to answering my question from last October, which is: Can Rivian survive long enough to deliver the car we all want?
The car many people want is the R2. The car I want is the Rivian R3, which is a little smaller and a little cheaper. The company still has to report its financials, and it’s possible that it cost too much to deliver these cars. Investors are certainly hoping that higher-than-expected sales might be pointing towards lower-than-expected losses.
It could be worse, as Rivian is not Lucid.
Lucid Production Dropped, But It’s All Part Of The Plan
Lucid has a new CEO and is trying to save cash and reset after a series of setbacks. I remain skeptical about the company, which earlier this year announced it was delaying its midsize crossover.
The Saudi-backed automaker put out a statement saying its production was down a little bit, as was always the plan:
Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806 vehicles during the third quarter of 2026.1 Deliveries exceeded production as the company continued to execute its planned inventory reduction, converting existing vehicle inventory into customer deliveries as part of the previously announced operating reset targeting $1.4 billion of cash flow improvements in 2026. Demand for the Lucid Gravity continued to regain momentum.
As part of its operating reset, Lucid continued to align production with near-term demand. Production declined sequentially, consistent with the previously announced elimination of a second shift at AMP-1 in June, while deliveries were above production as the company reduced existing vehicle inventory.
Rightsizing production to demand in the near-term is logical, but Lucid has to eventually find a way to create more demand if it wants to continue to exist. Rivian is showing that’s possible.
What Are The Five Affordable Vehicles Ford Is Building?
Ford CEO Jim Farley talked to NBC News and said the important things one needs to say about building affordable vehicles.
“People are squeezed,” Jim Farley told NBC News in an interview. “It’s our responsibility — Ford, the Model T — to bring more affordable vehicles to the U.S.”
He then said that the company was on the verge of producing five affordable vehicles (NBC News says “five more,” though I thought I heard five). What are these vehicles?
There’s the UEV platform, which will produce the Ford Fathom EV pickup and two more affordable vehicles. That is three. It’s rumored that the Escape is going to come back as a more OG Escape-sized, hybrid-only crossover. That’s four. What’s the fifth?
Nissan Hits Its 19th Month Of Year-Over-Year Growth
Nissan has a new CEO, new energy, and, eventually, some new product. In the meantime, the brand definitely found the bottom a couple of years ago and by merely having a mix of affordable cars has hit its 19th month of consecutive sales wins and its 13th month as the fasting growing brand in the United States.
It’s also not just the company dumping Rogues on rental fleets, as the company says fleet volume is down:
The brand’s retail sales increased 6.8% during the quarter, driven by strong demand for its core truck and SUV lineup. Frontier remained the fastest-growing truck in the U.S., with retail sales up 44% year over year. Rogue retail sales rose 41%, and Armada retail sales increased 42%, reflecting strong customer demand across the portfolio. Pathfinder cumulative retail sales delivered its second-best third-quarter retail sales performance ever.
Nissan continued executing its strategic focus on retail sales, prioritizing customer demand through its dealer network while reducing rental fleet volume. As a result, rental fleet sales declined 45% year-over-year during the quarter and 33% year-to-date. At the same time, Nissan recorded the largest increase in customer loyalty among major automakers and improved inventory efficiency, reinforcing the company’s disciplined approach to supporting long-term dealer profitability and sustainable growth.
Note, the much better (on paper) new Rogue wasn’t even out yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is it bad to admit that I first heard “Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand” by Primitive Radio Gods I heard the BB King sample as I’ve been down Hardy, baby as in the oft-crowded Hardy Toll Road in Houston and not I’ve been downhearted, babe as King actually sings?
The Big Question
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? What’s the fifth (or sixth) vehicle Farley is talking about?
Top photo: Rivian
In a totally sane world the 5th/6th vehicle is a UEV based midsized car going right after the throat of Toyota Camry. Match it on price, make the range useable (220mi base).
I don’t see much room for more unless they bring back the subcompact CUV, like the Ecosport.
What’s a UEV?
Edit: I see it’s Fordspeak for BEV.
220 miles is DOA for an EV in 2026 in the US, no matter how cheap.
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? What’s the fifth (or sixth) vehicle Farley is talking about?
A sub 20K ICE Mustang
The R3 would be my preference, but I am fundamentally at odds with the Rivian view towards controlling the entire software experience. Even if they create the very best software, it won’t be the only vehicle I drive.
The beauty of phone projection through Android Auto and Apple CarPlay are that you get a consistent experience and UI everywhere, whether in our Outback or any number of rental cars on work trips.
The available apps on an automaker-specific system will also always be limited, as the automaker will likely have a gatekeeping mechanism in place AND the app creator will need to maintain a version for that platform. So it will become like your favorite movies coming and going from Netflix.
100% this, plus there’s handy hand-off things with maps and music (though saying this maybe you can login into google maps in the car and get your recents and saved items transferred?)
There’s a more interesting parallel universe where all these dash and infotainment UIs were built on something truly open source and user updatable, I worry if any of this stuff will be usable or compatible with modern devices in 15-20 years, and for the geekier among this it would be pretty rad to see what sort of modding communities developed, i.e. new skins, UX improvements, eliminating weird bugs that the OE may not address, etc. Sadly I’m sure it will be a cold day in hell before OEs let that happen.
Yeah, I’m totally with you. I don’t need, and certainly don’t want, a bunch of AI crap built into my car. I also don’t want to have to use a screen to control basic functions like lights or vents.
TBQ: my first thought is to bring back the Focus.
Fiesta ST hybrid!
Give me a reasonably priced Focus EV and I will trade my ICE Focus in for it!
But, it must be a hatchback.
The new Ford? I think all the realistic options have been put forth, so how about something else?
How about a new Thunderbird? Build it on the Mustang platform, but give it four doors. Maybe lift it a little, give it an EREV and AWD, and a cool fastback. Maybe with louvers?
I really want to like the R3. From the outside, it’s great. On the inside, it’s a tech bro’s wet dream, complete with touch-screen controlled vents. And I just can’t see myself being able to live with a car that makes you use a screen for everything. Maybe by the time it comes out they’ll make the interior more practical, but I’m not optimistic.
As for what Ford should make, it’s definitely the Focus.
Yeah, see also my post about their insistence that they control the software experience.
I rolled my eyes at Rivian’s PR spin on why the door latches (not handles) are electric… Because Smart.
Outstanding song choice for the day.
TBQ: I think they need a hybrid Escape as you said, to fight the Rav4 and Rogue market.
A fully hybrid sedan or 5-door hatch in the class of the Civic and Corolla as well.
Re: “fully EV sedan or 5-door hatch in the class of the Civic and Corolla as well.”
If only Ford has the ‘Focus’ to make this happen, they could have a real winner in this segment.
I Replaced.”hybrid” with EV bc a small aerodynamic affordable sedan / hatch should be the perfect product as a full ev. Tesla with the model 3 has shown how to do it, even if I have zero interest in owning one.
Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand is a great song right up until the end when it turns into a cacophony where I rapidly reach for the next track button.
New Ford is a new PHEV Capri (I can dream).
Dunno man I remember that song sandwiched between rob zombies dragula and the 5th foofighters track they’d played that hour. The cacophony kind of fit right in like a period to the bleak interlude. 94.7 the buzz may you rest in peace.
TBQ: I think Ford needs to bring back the Focus. Make it a hatchback, with hybrid and ICE versions. No dual clutch automatics, if possible – traditional reliable automatics will do. Keep it under $30k for the base-but-good-enough trim. And with a few non-gray color options, please.
If it must be battery-electric, then fine. But keep it under $30k.
And no, we (I, really) don’t need a Focus RS. Although an ST version might make sense (and I think would be good enough).
PS. I am also waiting for the Rivian R3, with fingers crossed wishing for a price I can afford.
IMO, just stick to one hybrid drivetrain and keep the pricing competitive.
Yes – Absolutely! I’d be up for that.
I totally get the appeal of a Rivian, and if I were in the market for a new vehicle would seriously consider one. Then I’d realize I was paying $10–$20k more than I should on a new car and look elsewhere.
Hopefully Ford leans into the rugged vibe with their new EVs. Maybe that’ll put downward pressure on Rivian. A lot of us want EVs, but not all EV buyers want an egg shaped pod. The general aesthetic of the Mav but EV would be cool.
Also, if Rivian wanted to allow Android Auto/Apple Car Play, make the panoramic roof optional, and not force such huge wheel sizes, that’d be great.
Wheel sizes tend to move in only one direction, up. When my 19’s wear down on the PHEV Prius, I want to downsize to the 17’s.
Wheel sizes are driven by the brake sizes, which are driven by weight, which is driven by battery size, which is driven by range pressure.
I get it, I always want to go smaller on wheels, but the OEMs are between a rock and a hard place.
That’s not a hard rule, I’ve had many vehicles that could have used 1-2″ smaller wheels and still clear the brakes.
Even when we talk about EVs, my Bolt has 17″ wheels and several people have installed 15″ wheels.
I personally believe styling and handling are larger factors to wheel size selection than brake size; for most vehicles.
It’s styling. The GT4 race version of the Lotus Emira runs 18” wheels, the road version is on 20” wheels.
That is true, I have downsized myself. But OEM wheel specs and suppliers have different metrics to hit.
This. My old Cayenne had big ol Brembo brakes, weighed as much or more than all but the heaviest EVs at around 5300 lbs and got away with 18″ rims and had zero appreciable brake fade.
In some ways, yes, but more than that, they’re dictated by styling. Big wheels help to make a bigger car look more proportionate, so while a given new SUV’s brakes couldn’t clear 16in wheels, they could clear 18’s, even though they only offer 22’s.
This has been true for a long time, a 1997-99 base Boxster can fit 15in phone dials, but Porsche chose to put 16in wheels on the bog-standard car after doing some research on styling-driven customer preference, and most customers opted for the upgraded 17in rolling stock such that 16’s are actually quite hard to find used nowadays.
I’d like to get a set of 15’s when my tires wear out, both the extra sidewall cushion and lower unsprung mass will be substantial upgrades to it as a daily, even though my rear tires will be a little narrower when I do.
In EVs, the friction brakes are tiny because regenerative braking takes so much load off of them. The wheels are made large purely for styling reasons, as the skateboard battery makes the bottom of the car thicker and more wheel is required to make it proportional. The only EVs with actually big friction brakes are either performance EVs like the Taycan (with the track package) or pickups like the Silverado (for towing).
The current F1 cars have tiny rear brakes because of regenerative braking too.
There are cases where there is no regen from the EV drivetrain. If the battery is fully charged you will get very little regen. Also, if the batteries are very cold, they have to warm up before accepting much charge. Since EVs are heavier than an equivalent sized ICE, the brakes actually need to be better than ICE brakes to stop an EV. If for example you live at the top of a mountain drive downhill when the battery is at 100% state of charge you would need very good friction brakes. I only own EVs and these are edge cases and generally the use of friction brakes is infrequent unless you drive like you are in a race. My oldest EV has 150,000 miles and the brakes look like they could last another 150,000 miles.
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? Some kind of “Car”??? that is not a Mustang.
Wait, all of a sudden $50,000 and in reality closer to $60,000 is now considered affordable for a “good” EV? Come on…
Say what you will about Elon (and I won’r disagree) all those Model 3s and Model Ys out there can’t ALL suck. (Spoiler: they simply don’t no matter what the average keyboard warrior posits) and most are often far cheaper than that.
The GMs, especially the Chevy ones are cheaper and decent and have a huge convenient dealer network, same with the now defunct Honda version
The Hyundais and Kias are compelling, many for far less
Even some of the Europeans are priced less.
I think it’s time we redefine “Affordable”. Rivians are nice and probably “Premium” but maybe let’s give it a few years to see how they really shake out, especially in a lower priced tier.
What is “affordable” is something like the Equinox EV. What’s MORE than affordable are any number of higher quality Chinese models, not available here but as you yourself posted very recently available in other developed market.
Ford’s Fathom may turn out to be quite good at an okay price. Or it may suffer from all the recalls Fords normally do, see a massive price hike shortly after intro, and inevitable suffer from dealers trying to move people into an F150. And not everyone wants a pickup truck in the first place.
But $50k-$60k being a good and affordable price point all of a sudden for an EV? Can’t really agree.
Yeah- maybe it’s “affordable” as an up-market outdoorsy lifestyle vehicle. But certainly not when viewed as an alternative to the options you mentioned.
You articulated this sentiment better than I did in my comment. The site that shall not be named just published an article on the Kia EV3, which looks truly enticing, and even the top trim is under $50k. It can be done, but no one seems to want to anymore.
Yeah I was going to say da fuq in what world is Rivian sensible and affordable? They haven’t even released the “cheap” R2 yet and that is going to start at like 48k for RWD. Before the R2s the R1s were all like 80k+. If that is affordable for most people I am seriously doing something wrong. I think most people are just taking out ridiculous long term loans on their vehicle hence the reason for the 50k new car prices I remember a few years ago thinking 40k was ridiculous and we have shot past that.
Its very much relative. The R2 is priced competitively or under what the 4Runner and LC250 Land Cruiser are priced at, while delivering a more premium experience, EV packaging benefits compared to the compromised Toyotas, and is going to be faster and capable enough for what that buyer will actually want. The R2 is also cheap relative to the R1 which is minimum in the 80s to start, so people that see the Rivian brand as a desirable lifestyle thing can stretch up to a more attainable R2 where they would otherwise be price locked out of an R1. The R3 being in the 30s will make that even more true. The real value is providing a luxury EV experience with some off-road capability for similar pricing to commodity ICE vehicles.
The R2 is ‘affordable’ in the sense that it is price-competitive with 2-row mid-size SUVs, which includes anything from a Honda Passport to a Bronco or Wrangler. I consider the mid-size segment to be in the ‘middle-class splurge/luxury’ category (which is why so many are ‘lifestyle vehicles’), while the regular middle-class segment would be the sub-$40k compact crossover like the RAV4 and CR-V.
I saw it as more trying to position it as truly affordable and hey look at the awesome volume they are doing with a 45 percent increase to a grand total of less than 20,000 units of ALL Rivian models sold. While mentioned that that is still second place to Tesla, the scope of that was not even alluded to. Tesla sold almost half a million vehicles last quarter. Rivian sold not even 20,000. Yes, they are still ramping up I suppose but realistically their volume is a rounding error both as compared to Tesla AND as compared to the other vehicles you mentioned. They had better ramp up and fast and not have any issues, otherwise the air might come out of the balloon mighty fast.
This site frequently touts big percentage increases or decreases when it comes to EVs but while sometimes the raw unit numbers are mentioned (as in this case) it’s almost always more of an asterisk rather than being shown as vastly more informative unit counts when small numbers are involved. 45% increase looks great. 6000+/- unit increase (45% of 13500 baseline number) looks much less great.
Just like last year – Tesla loses 50% of volume in Latvia or wherever! But not as clearly stated is that it lost 40 of its prior 80 sales. That kind of stuff….
The world and the US specifically do not (IMO) need more entry level luxury models at $50-60k. Of anything. That market is well covered. Impress me with something like the EV Equinox that was well covered here when it devbuted at around $28k.
Yeah I don’t consider the R2 to be actually affordable or even necessarily a huge volume seller, but the R1 was firmly a large luxury car selling in large luxury car volumes. I have my doubts about sales volumes too but I doubt they’ll be awful.
Bringing an affordable hybrid crossover into the market in a slightly smaller package is a very smart idea for Ford. Calling it the Escape is probably smart as well.
Having a lapse between the old Escape and a new Escape and leaving an Escape shaped hole in your portfolio is not a smart move. You never go full Stellantis.
Hybrid transit connect built on the new escape platform to go with the uev van? Multiple of ev SUVs on uev? Hot hatch ev like the Capri. A au falcon style ute ?
R3 is the vehicle many more people seem to be after then the R2. Rivian has a chance to steal Subarus demo. They might be a bit with the R2. But R3 and R3x have the potential and then some. R3 truck could also be good.
Hybrid battery driven ac was the only thing my old transit connect camper was lacking. I wish ford had brought the maverick hybrid based one to market in 2023 as promised.
The fifth vehicle is the new 2-door RWD Escort, styled like the UK mk1.
Nah, it’ll be an SUV called something to anger fans of an old Ford. RS200 maybe, or Mexico, or, Christ they already did the Puma, so Focus?
Ford introduces the 2029 Cobra, a 5-seat fastback SUV that promises sporty AI-powered styling and an exciting software-first driving experience for the affordable price of 50,000 Actual For Real American Dollars
With an additional $10,000 gearbox durability surcharge?
But of course, $50k gets you the wet-belt engine and the standard Failure At Random Transmission Technology (FARTT), if you want the Transmission Ultimately Retains Durability Deal (TURDD) option, you need to pay the extra $10,000 for the Platinum Extra Novel Innovation Sound Stage (PENISS) package that comes with the panoramic sunroof, ventilated vinyl seats, BEATS By Dre 27-speaker sound system, 55″ touchscreen and AM From I Have No Mouth And I Must Scream, Yes, That One, We Made Him For Real, our new Level 2.5 ADAS package that actually just legitimately hates you.
All of that is brilliant, but I love the bit about the ADAS that legitimately hates you.
Now, if Rivian made something that didn’t make a Model Y Premium look “affordable”, that would be swell
Sideways says the Focus. That would be great., though it’s probably another effing SUV.
The Big 3 went upmarket with SUVs/trucks, abandoning the affordable/sedan end of the market, just when our country needs more affordable vehicles. So it really irked me when I saw several midwestern congressmen introducing legislation to completely ban Chinese made vehicles, which may be the only place left that can manufacture affordable vehicles for the foreseeable future. Buying a new vehicle will soon be something only the wealthy can handle. This really bothers me more than it should.
It’s almost as if all their rhetoric about anti-regulation and free market capitalism was total BS…
And the poors will be fighting over the every more rare, rusty, costly, and broken used cars.
That’s a feature for them, not a bug. When the proles are fighting over scraps the elites can steal everything else since there’s nobody to oppose them.
Yep! infighting keeps the guillotines away.
Ford and Chrysler abandoned the entry vehicle segment. GM did not. Until recently they had the Sonic and Spark. Those were replaced with the Trax, Trailblazer and their Buick cousins
The 2025 Trax cost the median household less than a 1995 base Metro. It also has been a smash hit and far outsold the previous cars which shows a slight lift sells vehicles.
2025 Sales
206,339 …. Trax
101,363 ….. Trailblazer
58,949 ….. Envista
57,528 ….. Encore GX
424,179 …. Total Family.
MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN MUSTANG SEDAN
….and make it a liftback, you fools
Is that basically the Mach-e, but lower?
Yes, except “but lower” means that, just like the Mustang, it shares 0% of its parts with the Mach-E.
I just want a repackaged S650. I love pony cars, but I have a wife, a toddler, and a dog. A car that has a footprint roughly the same size as a 4Runner with tiny backseats, a small trunk opening, and doors so massive you can’t fully open them in a regular parking space is a packaging nightmare.
I’ve said this for years, in fact. I get that Ford, GM, Doge, etc. have to appease traditionalists with their pony cars, and they want heavy, massive, horribly packaged beasts that they can barely see out of because it’s MUH REAL MUSTANG or whatever…but there’s just no excuse for a car of that size to be so compromised.
Dodge gets it! The new Charger 4 door has the same dimensions as the coupe but in a usable package. Unfortunately it’s also 5,000 pounds, only available with an inline 6/automatic, and half baked because Stellantis.
Whoever gets the next competitor to market has a throw over home plate if it simply weighs 500 pounds less and offers a V8 and a manual. Rumor is the Mustang sedan that was shown to dealers is Panamera esque, and rumor is GM has an alpha platform sedan that’ll be sold as a Buick (it’s gonna be the Grand National, let’s be real here) and a Camaro sedan.
I would literally go to a dealership and put down money for one of those tomorrow. Hell I don’t even think I’d want the V8 OR a manual personally, I just think they need to be available. Hell my ideal Mustang sedan is probably a long roof version of the new RTR with all the performance hardware.
I’d love to have something I can fit the whole family in and also take to an occasional track day. As of right now it really doesn’t exist outside of luxury cars and I don’t want to drop $70,000+ on a depreciating asset. But a $55,000 Camaro or Buick muscle sedan that’s basically a CT4V BW? I’d buy that TOMORROW. Or a Panamera esque Mustang sedan? Paint it Mystichrome and I’m in.
Couldn’t agree more, I just can’t excuse a 2-ton 2-door that isn’t a luxury car, but the S650 chassis could underpin a lovely Falcon or Lincoln LS-ish vehicle, and would make sense even with the Ford interior.
How dare you
Think about all the My Little Ponies people would leave on your door or windshield!
I see a lot of, “Rivian is gonna make an actually affordable car guys, watch,” followed by a lot of justification of a price that is unattainable for exactly the sort of people that would benefit from just such an EV. New cars aren’t affordable, and calling them that doesn’t change reality.
New car pricing has been entirely unsustainable for years, and it’s fueled only by greed and a lack of competition. This is why every automaker in the US market fears China. They know they’ll lose when consumers are given a realistically affordable option, and then the jig of wildly inflated pricing is up.
I got my fingers crossed that Slate makes it to the market, and then expands their lineup. $25k is actually in the “affordable” range.
I really hope I’m wrong about this, but I’m expecting it to either A) not make it to market, or B) release and sell 100 before the company falls apart.
f o c u s
The affordable Ford they should build? A new Taurus sedan and wagon
Agreed. Would also accept fusion/mondeo wagon
TBQ: Kia Picanto rebadged as a new Festiva?
I’m calling it: Ford is bringing back the bugeye EXP.
The Focus is coming back, watch.
I thought their new focus was quality?
Which, considering what recalls cost, really should be an automatic thing and not something one should have to refocus on.
I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or clever so, either way….nice.
The slogan writes itself. You could put Farley on TV with a new Focus EV.
“Our Focus…is quality.”
Recalls cost less money than doing it right the first time does.
Only if someone catches it.
Exactly. They save even more money cutting corners when no one catches it.
One could only hope. My beloved Focus hatch is getting old and I would totally restomod it if I had bonkers money, so a new Focus would be cheaper than that.