Next to Tesla, Rivian is the most popular all-electric brand in the United States, which is somewhat remarkable given that up until recently the company has only sold a midsize-ish truck and its SUV twin. There’s a new Rivian on the market, and it looks like people are buying it. One reason? It’s way more affordable.
Lucid, on the other hand, has one expensive sedan and one expensive large SUV. As Morning Dump followers know, Lucid is in a bad way and now it’s seen its sales go in the opposite direction of Rivian as it tries to retool ahead of its own delayed launch for its affordable vehicle. Ford is on the verge of revealing a new affordable car, along with four more affordable cars. What are they?
Nissan has managed to continue to grow in this market, and I do think one of the reasons is that its cars are still relatively affordable. Over-under on how many times I’m going to use that word?
Rivian Sales Were Up 45% In A Difficult Q3
One of my strongly held beliefs about the car market is that affordability is a completely relative phenomena. What is affordable to me is not affordable to you. The average transaction price is around $50,000, but that’s not a number most people likely consider truly attainable. The ‘Keating Line’ is around $35,000, and I think that feels like a better number, but doesn’t cover a lot of people.
A key way that affordability is relative is, of course, what kind of vehicle you’re getting. While $35,000 is a lot to pay for a subcompact crossover like an HR-V, it’s about average for a compact one like the CR-V, and a great deal for a midsize SUV like the Honda Pilot.
The Rivian R2 looks like a winner. It’s an attractive vehicle from a well-liked brand with a high-level of capability. In theory, it’ll cost under $50,000, though I think most people will end up with an R2 that’s closer to $60,000. Even on the high end this is still about $20,000-$30,000 less than a price for the larger R1 or R1S.
You can get a lot of EVs for that price, but you can’t get a Rivian for that price, and the Rivian name carries a lot of weight. For that reason, I’m not surprised that in its first full quarter Rivian posted deliveries (sales, basically) of 19,248 vehicles. The company doesn’t break down sales, but that increase is a 45% over Q3 2025 (when people were rushing to lease cars before the expiration of the tax credit).
As TechCrunch points out, if Rivian can hit its goal of selling 20-25,000 R2s before the end of this year it’ll make it the second fastest selling EV of all time (after the Model Y). This goes a little further to answering my question from last October, which is: Can Rivian survive long enough to deliver the car we all want?
The car many people want is the R2. The car I want is the Rivian R3, which is a little smaller and a little cheaper. The company still has to report its financials, and it’s possible that it cost too much to deliver these cars. Investors are certainly hoping that higher-than-expected sales might be pointing towards lower-than-expected losses.
It could be worse, as Rivian is not Lucid.
Lucid Production Dropped, But It’s All Part Of The Plan
Lucid has a new CEO and is trying to save cash and reset after a series of setbacks. I remain skeptical about the company, which earlier this year announced it was delaying its midsize crossover.
The Saudi-backed automaker put out a statement saying its production was down a little bit, as was always the plan:
Lucid produced 2,954 vehicles and delivered 3,806 vehicles during the third quarter of 2026.1 Deliveries exceeded production as the company continued to execute its planned inventory reduction, converting existing vehicle inventory into customer deliveries as part of the previously announced operating reset targeting $1.4 billion of cash flow improvements in 2026. Demand for the Lucid Gravity continued to regain momentum.
As part of its operating reset, Lucid continued to align production with near-term demand. Production declined sequentially, consistent with the previously announced elimination of a second shift at AMP-1 in June, while deliveries were above production as the company reduced existing vehicle inventory.
Rightsizing production to demand in the near-term is logical, but Lucid has to eventually find a way to create more demand if it wants to continue to exist. Rivian is showing that’s possible.
What Are The Five Affordable Vehicles Ford Is Building?
Ford CEO Jim Farley talked to NBC News and said the important things one needs to say about building affordable vehicles.
“People are squeezed,” Jim Farley told NBC News in an interview. “It’s our responsibility — Ford, the Model T — to bring more affordable vehicles to the U.S.”
He then said that the company was on the verge of producing five affordable vehicles (NBC News says “five more,” though I thought I heard five). What are these vehicles?
There’s the UEV platform, which will produce the Ford Fathom EV pickup and two more affordable vehicles. That is three. It’s rumored that the Escape is going to come back as a more OG Escape-sized, hybrid-only crossover. That’s four. What’s the fifth?
Nissan Hits Its 19th Month Of Year-Over-Year Growth
Nissan has a new CEO, new energy, and, eventually, some new product. In the meantime, the brand definitely found the bottom a couple of years ago and by merely having a mix of affordable cars has hit its 19th month of consecutive sales wins and its 13th month as the fasting growing brand in the United States.
It’s also not just the company dumping Rogues on rental fleets, as the company says fleet volume is down:
The brand’s retail sales increased 6.8% during the quarter, driven by strong demand for its core truck and SUV lineup. Frontier remained the fastest-growing truck in the U.S., with retail sales up 44% year over year. Rogue retail sales rose 41%, and Armada retail sales increased 42%, reflecting strong customer demand across the portfolio. Pathfinder cumulative retail sales delivered its second-best third-quarter retail sales performance ever.
Nissan continued executing its strategic focus on retail sales, prioritizing customer demand through its dealer network while reducing rental fleet volume. As a result, rental fleet sales declined 45% year-over-year during the quarter and 33% year-to-date. At the same time, Nissan recorded the largest increase in customer loyalty among major automakers and improved inventory efficiency, reinforcing the company’s disciplined approach to supporting long-term dealer profitability and sustainable growth.
Note, the much better (on paper) new Rogue wasn’t even out yet.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Is it bad to admit that I first heard “Standing Outside A Broken Phonebooth With Money In My Hand” by Primitive Radio Gods I heard the BB King sample as I’ve been down Hardy, baby as in the oft-crowded Hardy Toll Road in Houston and not I’ve been downhearted, babe as King actually sings?
The Big Question
What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build? What’s the fifth (or sixth) vehicle Farley is talking about?
Top photo: Rivian
Does Ford not understand what a tease is? Seriously, give us something. I’m starting to give up on giving a shit.
So far the lease deals on the R2 are fairly terrible – which means you should be buying the car… and the current pricing puts it in competition with a lightly used BMW iX, which makes for a tough decision… says the person who daydreams about an iX every time he fills up his car with gas.
iX seats are terrible. They look comfy, but they have zero support. I previously owned an iX M60 that was an absolute lemon, but it seemed like that was a one off and not indicative of most iX owners.
Supposedly the new seats (starting in MY2025?) are better? It really does confound why they just didn’t use the seat options from the X5 or X3 which are better than decent. From what I see on the forums most iX owners love their cars, but that may be positive selection by those who post…
New Ford fiesta and Focus RS?
One can dream
That would be sick!
I’ll have had my R2 for a couple of weeks as of this Thursday.
Rivian, for the most part, is still a premium, low-volume brand, and I do not think it yet has the operations or experience to deal with people who would otherwise consider something like a RAV4 or CR-V in the $40K price range. The less expensive the car, the (justifiably, I think) higher the customer’s expectations are, because the car represents a bigger commitment for them. A rich guy buying a toy can afford to get rid of it if their mood changes or if the car pisses him off too much. A working-class person cannot.
I adore mine, and it’s been mostly problem-free, aside from the odd rattle or glitch. Based on what I have myself observed and from what I’ve seen in the forums from other people, Rivian has a way to go with quality control and with streamlining getting customers’ cars fixed that do have defects. And even the sales process itself was a bit disorganized. Volume customers aren’t going to put up with this, so let’s hope Rivian gets itself in check before it releases those cheaper versions.
TBQ.. Just produce the Ford 021C concept from ’99. It’s perfect and looks like the cars from “The Incredibles.”
https://marc-newson.com/ford-021c-concept-car/
That one is really fun! Keep the bright colors too, don’t ruin it with greyscale.
Reminds me of the Nissan Figaro which of course makes sense as both are early 1960s inspired designs
My stepdad’s CX-5 lease was ending, and he was not fond enough of that car to sign up for another one. But also, he wanted to downsize to something smaller & less expensive.
He and my mom saw a new Nissan Kicks while they were on a roadtrip, and they loved the look of that car. After cross-shopping against a few competing vehicles that I had suggested, they ended up going with the Kicks. Prior to this, neither one of them had cross-shopped Nissan in probably 10 years.
I saw an R2S yesterday and could only tell what it was by size. It looks identical to the other Rivians I’ve seen, save for being normal sized relative to other vehicles.
I still don’t like the Disney cartoon headlamps, though.
Oddly enough I didn’t mind the headlamps until I saw them described as lozenges. Now I can’t unsee it.
Meanwhile, the rear end of the Santa Fe has been giving me thicc Geo Metro vibes.
Thicc Geo Metro was beat out by Pinto Panopticon for my temporary screen name!
I love seeing people put black tape over the ends of the Santa Fe lights so they look like digital boners.
Lozenges is quite fitting. Jujubes? Troches?
Focus hybrid
Honestly, when it comes to knowing what people want, Ford has it down. I’m sure whatever they’re planning will be desirable (see the current heater they’re on with the Maverick and the Bronco). Quality has been the only question the last few years.
Honestly, I don’t understand why FoMoCo can’t just do a Bronco Sport Hybrid. There must be some sort of logistical or practical reason, because they clearly nailed the styling. It was so good that it basically bumped off the current Escape and its We-Have-Porsche-Macan-at-Home styling.
The Maverick Hybrid demand far exceeded Ford’s prediction and that made transaxle production a big bottle neck. I also think batteries would have been an issue if they could have kept up with transaxle production.
Bronco Sport demand also exceeded Ford’s expectations which along with the Maverick’s success meant they initially had less plant capacity than demand.
So I can see why it wasn’t offered initially, they didn’t “need” extra sales and they didn’t have capacity to support the Hybrid components.
Now with the Escape gone there should be production capacity to support that option in the Bronco Sport.
However I read elsewhere that the Bronco Sport is not long for this world so it may not be seen as worthwhile for a lame duck product. Combine that with the “coming soon compact Hybrid CUV” (Escape replacement) which pretty much only has a home that quickly at the Mexican plant and I can see why the BS may not be long for this world.
On other news Ford as announced that the Bronco will be getting a “new engine” for 2027 with some speculating that it will be a Hybrid.
That makes sense. People are responding well to the Bronco Sport’s trucklet styling, which in many ways was a reprise of the original gen. 1 and gen. 2 Escape’s theming. And I think it’s just because it’s a handsome, capable vehicle, not because it’s got Bronco on it. So hopefully whatever replaces the Bronco Sport keeps that same thing going.
Definite OG Escape vibes in the Bronco Sport and that Escape was a best seller in the segment.
As a Ford owner who had his in for about the 12th? recall today, I would say Quality is not in question. It’s poor. Still love my Maverick though. It may be Stockholm syndrome.
12 in one day? That’s more recalls than I have had for all of my vehicles in my life, and that includes 2 Fords.
Lol, 12th recall was taken care of today. The others have been done over the last 3 years. It does read that way though, doesn’t it?
I had a 2014 Fusion. It might have had one recall in the time I owned it. The Maverick had a recall before they built mine, and I ordered in June of ’21. In fairness, I’ve never experienced any of the recall issues on my vehicle, but it’s annoying that they require me to spend the time going to the dealer to get them taken care of.
Oh that’s a lot better, although what’s the difference between 1 and 12 recalls if they take care of it at the same time.
The 2010’s Fords weren’t too bad I think my 2017 has had two recalls total.
I don’t put many miles on it, so I get the oil changed about once a year and get the recalls done at the same time, mostly. A couple have been more than a computer update, so those involved leaving the car.
I still think they make a compelling product, but they need to get their software squared away.
I had a 2010 Fusion V6 and it was absolutely bulletproof. The only things that ever went wrong were a seized rear brake caliper (probably from us constantly using the parking brake unnecessarily) and the AC compressor seized up and died. It’s been disappointing to see Ford’s decline. They were at the top of their game from 2010-2014 or so when it comes to quality.
Plenty of people can afford a Rivian R2, sure, but I have a hard time calling something going for $60k out the door an “affordable” vehicle.
As for the QoD, you can sit around waiting for Ford, or you can just drive down to your local Toyota or Honda dealer today and buy an Accord or a Camry, which probably have about the same passenger volume as an R2. No waiting required, and discounts available. Those sedans may not impress your neighbors with your outdoorsy virtue, but man they are nice cars and such a tremendous value, nicely equipped for a little over half the cost of the Rivian.
“What’s the affordable vehicle Ford needs to build?”
Entry-level Golf and Polo-sized cars, and a midsize sedan to compete with Accord, Sonata, K-something….
That means Focus, Fiesta and Fusion.
Ford should make a car again with at least a couple of affordable trim levels. It can be whatever: Focus, Fiesta, Fusion, something else that starts with F.
Lucid will survive – the Saudis will keep pumping money in until it’s profitable.
Exactly.
Unlike US Shareholders, the Saudis understand the long game.
Like Liv Golf? The Saudi’s spent $5 billion on Liv, then cut all funding which put the league into bankruptcy. The Saudi’s had assured players they would continue to 2032. I don’t think Lucid has an infinite timeframe or open checkbook.
Saudis have invested almost twice as much in Lucid.
EVs are the future – and are currently easier to build and ship out than Oil from the Middle East.
Meanwhile, nobody was asking for another non-sustainable golf league.
Sunk costs in either case.
TBQ: Bring back the Focus (I’d love to see another ST and/or RS), purely based on anecdotal evidence they seem to have sold well and having driven a couple as rentals were great small cars.
With transmissions that work, it might have a chance.
The only thing the automotive industry can do to fix the car market is the same thing that every other industry can do: Get forcibly legislated into paying their employees enough to actually buy new cars. Failing that, no amount of introducing new low-level models will have a meaningful effect.
Why not? Making a cheaper car means more people can afford it at the same pay.
I could be wrong but some quick googling seems to show union autoworkers make enough to afford a new car if you use the <35% annual salary in payments per year. I have no idea what non-union autoworkers make.
Non-union auto workers are pretty hit or miss, about half are “independent contractors” with no benefits, and many of us don’t make enough for the 35% calculation to even be possible: groceries, health insurance, housing and utilities don’t scale with income and can’t be discretionarily trimmed down to fit within the “economist-approved” budget model, the sum of those expenses is more than 65% of most people’s income.
The 35% number is actually unimaginable for most working people. With an “average” standard of living within driving distance of an OEM, that’s $2,000 rent for a medium apartment, $300 for bottom-of-the-barrel health insurance that doesn’t cover anything, $300 in power/water/gas/internet/phone bills, $100 in car insurance, $500 in groceries (more like $800 nowadays) and $400 in gasoline, assuming no savings, no retirement fund, and no purchasing “luxuries” like hair cuts, medical copays, eating out, clothes or car maintenance, that’s $4400 a month in survival expenses, at a standard tax rate that’s 100% of the income of someone making 72k a year.
To have 35% left over, that person would have to make $110k and still have no savings, not own a house and live like a pauper, and they’d be buying a luxury car with 35% of their income. Basically, anybody buying an economy car has far less than 35% of their income to put towards a car, someone buying a new economy car realistically makes 100k a year, because it’d be crazy to buy a new car before upgrading your health insurance or saving for retirement, and you’d be really crazy to spend 35% of your income on a car before you can live comfortably on the other 65% of it.
The 35% model only makes sense as “responsible advice” if you bought a house in the 90s, refinanced it in 2008 and are making $200 monthly mortgage payments while earning 80-100k a year, and are paying pre-COVID prices for groceries somehow.
Checking the math here, feel free to pick a different plant. I picked the Georgetown KY, Toyota plant.
I found a 2br apartment for $1000, but found a bunch of better ones for $1200 that are closer w/ some utilities and internet included. Still have to pay for power and phone so let’s say $100/mo utilities.
$400 in gas at $4 a gallon (avg in that city) is 100 gallons per month, if we assume a 20mpg truck that’s 2000 miles per month, for a 30mpg Toyota that’s 3000, both of these are way above the national avg of about 1000 miles per month. So let’s say ~200$ per month.
That food price is probably too high unless our theoretical guy is eating out alot. The USDA says a male monthly cost is $318/mo.
Keeping everything else the same this comes out to $2209/mo, ithis person living alone would need to make about $39,000 a year, totally doable. if they have a roommate this drops to $31,500/year, even nonunion they are making way more than that. A $500/mo car payment with a roommate is quite possible.
I still agree a new car is a bad $ decision in the under $100k bracket.
I am starting to see some R2s driving around in Seattle but haven’t seen one parked up close yet. R1S and and R1Ts are everywhere (I see like 10 on my normal dog walk) so it’s just time for the R2. If I was a new car buyer it would be high on my list as I like the shape a lot more than the fastback on my model Y that makes it hard to put the dog in the back, should also take less range hit with bikes on the back. It makes a lot more sense than a 4runner with $5-6/gal gas here.
We need more options in the EV space that can carry things, we bought a used Y since it can actually do a family road trip which most of the other smaller EVs can’t.
Look at Nissan go – one of my renters somehow scored a deal on a brand new Sentra yesterday for $21,000 @ 5%. They even gave him a grand for his tired old BMW. For someone with limited income, no credit and an aging live-in mom this was exactly what he needed. I haven’t paid much attention to Nissan, but it seems to me they are offering up some actual affordable vehicles.
With the pay-off of my roof nearing completion I’ve been eyeing something fully electric. The Rivian doesn’t make the cut off as it’s a wee-bit over my max budget of $25K. However, I found a local Ioniq 6 recently with 12,000 miles that does @ $24K. I even like the looks of them – if I squint, the silhouette reminds me of an old Lockheed Constellation fuselage.
TBQ: Idk, something fun. Stick-shift electric Focus, make the shifting difficult to master, call it the “Fo-Cuss”. Maybe a new/old factory version of the classic “Bucket-T” hot rod available in knock-down kit form, choose your own power plant – ICE or electric, delivered direct from Ford. Whatever it is, hopefully it’ll have a transmission that doesn’t grenade at 60,000 miles and isn’t subject to 35 recalls in its first year.
I’m thinking a Flex EV or van for mystery Ford 5.
A compact CUV and Van are the next two products for the UEV platform, but they did tell dealers a while back about a “Maverick based Van” So I can see that as #5.
The R2 and eventual R3 will be winners for Rivian because they are a great value relative to the ICE/Hybrid competition. The R2 is priced basically in line with the 4-Runner and offers more power, more storage, and a nicer interior with an equally strong lifestyle vibe. Sure the 4Runner may be more capable off-road, but a small percentage of buyers actually use it, they want the appearance of capability, which the R2 has plenty of.
It is pretty crazy the base model 4runner starts at like 45k and it is only RWD. I debated about those as a replacement for my FJ but anything comparable to it is well over 50k and they don’t even get that much better mpgs then the FJ. Reason why I would love the Jimny (or something similar) over here where it is a fuel efficient and also a really good offroader. But currently the only fuel efficient off roaders are expensive EVs. And it seems most of the ICE/Hybrid ones are like 25mpg or less.
TBQ: Crown Vic.
” The car I want is the Rivian R3, ”
Me too!
“What Are The Five Affordable Vehicles Ford Is Building?”
I’m guessing the five are:
-The Fathom
-new Escape hybrid
-new more affordable Mach E
-A larger SUV/CUV that is a stretched Mach E
-an electric sedan or hatchback… which should be a new Focus or Escort. But I bet they’ll call it something like Mustang Sedan or Mustang 4 door. OR… They’ll make a new hybrid Focus/Escort using the same bones as the Escape hybrid.
Edit… in my opinion, they should also make a new Transit Connect… either as a hybrid based on the Escape hybrid or as all electric based on the UEV platform.
“Note, the much better (on paper) new Rogue wasn’t even out yet.”
Just getting rid of the troublesome variable compression KR-series engine is likely to be a huge improvement. And ditching the CVT for a hybrid-electric transmission will be another huge improvement.
And if they make a plug-in hybrid version, that would be even better still. But it’s looking like they won’t
Ford has said that a compact van and CUV are the next products planned for the UEV platform.
There have also been grumblings about a 4dr Mustang but I don’t know if that is something Ford would consider “Affordable” since they say it will be under $40k, in other words $39,995
“compact van and CUV are the next products planned for the UEV platform.”
Now let’s hope they don’t give these vehicles stupid names like the Fathom.
Does the R2 have the expensive one piece body panels still? i think that price tag for simple fender bender repairs is probably the most prohibitive thing about choosing one.
Ford probably needs to take the Mach- E and give it a performance option in ICE and Erev. Call it whatever they want.
“Does the R2 have the expensive one piece body panels still? “
Apparently not from what I’ve heard/read.
The drive did an interview with the CEO, he said they R2 has a much more modular structure for ease of repair.
R2 should be better in this regard – but the issues regarding R1 were also overblown. That $42k repair ended up well under $10k but that doesn’t make for a fun headline, so nobody heard it.
I like the R3 too, but what I really want is that form factor in a car without AI bullshit and touchscreen-controlled vents. But if Rivian’s sales are anything to go by, that puts me in the minority.
Naw, you’re amongst friends here. Mishearing song lyrics is a classic bit of brain weirdness that’s gotta be universal. I also hadn’t heard of the word “downhearted” before that song, so I don’t blame ya.
Scrolled to find this comment. The touch controlled vents are the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. I desperately want an R3 but I wouldn’t take one for free with all that ai touch-screen-everything nonsense.
My guess for the 5th one, would be the Ford Territory, rebadged as the Escape
Great. Now take that chassis and drop a real car body on it. Not a lifted hatchback, no suv/cuv/whatever. A real car.