Home » Tesla Just Bumped The Prices On Its Most Popular Models For One Very Good Reason

Tesla Just Bumped The Prices On Its Most Popular Models For One Very Good Reason

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I’m not gonna bury the answer for this one deep in a story to make you scroll down. Tesla raised prices on the Model 3 and Model Y, overnight, with no announcement or explanation for the very obvious reason that it can. That Tesla has repeatedly changed its prices and gotten away with it points to something behavioral psychologists and economists call “anchoring-and-adjustment,” and it’s something that Tesla is very good at, whether intentionally or not.

While we’re on the topic of EVs, I want to touch on how Texas is changing its laws to make EVs more expensive to operate (and why that’s a good thing), as well as Volkswagen’s Scout battle, and Kia and Hyundai’s long streak of wins.

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Tesla Made Model 3s and Model Ys $250 More Expensive

0x0 Model3 01
Photo credit: Courtesy of Tesla, Inc.

For those keeping track at home, here’s a brief timeline of some of the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y price changes just this year, before delivery:

  • January 12th, 2023: Tesla drops all prices massively, the Model Y Performance goes from $65,990 to $56,990.
  • February 6th, 2023: Tesla raises some prices, the Model Y Performance now costs $57,990.
  • March 6th, 2023: Tesla lowers the prices of Model X and S models.
  • April 7th, 2023: Tesla lowers prices on Model 3 and Model Y, a Model Y Performance now becomes $53,990.

I think there were some other price adjustments in there? Frankly, it’s getting hard to follow. All I know is that, according to Tesla’s website, Here are the latest adjustments:

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Sawyer Merritt, who keeps on top of these things, also notes that Chinese and Canadian prices are up, generally, $290 across the board.

So, what is a Model 3 or Model Y actually worth? No real clue.

Both Tesla’s stock price and the price of its cars seem to follow something called the “anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic” identified by a couple of blokes called Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. There’s a good explanation of it here, but I’ll take this brief summary:

In a 1974 paper called “Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,” Tversky and Kahneman theorized that, when people try to make estimates or predictions, they begin with some initial value, or starting point, and then adjust from there. Anchoring bias happens because the adjustments usually aren’t big enough, leading us to incorrect decisions.

I.e., if you try to negotiate for a gallon of milk and the opening price the dairy farmer gives you is $900, you might think you’re clever if you can get the thing for $450. That’s half-off! Of course, if you have any sense of the actual value of the price of milk you’d realize that’s like 100x too high.

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I’m not certain that Elon Musk and Tesla are engaging in any sort of sound or predictable economic reasoning other than: We can win a price war now and, as noted yesterday, lower margins on cars will ultimately result in market share, which will result in more subscription revenue.

There’s another, more obvious psychological trend here as well, which all of us know as “hype.” This is obvious when people line up to pay $1,000 for $260 Swatch watches or get sucked into a game of three card monte. Teslas are both still fairly well hyped products in spite of their increased ubiquity, and every time Tesla moves prices a bit, there’s more interest and attention given to the company (I’m doing it right now!).

Given the increased competition from other automakers, the biggest risk to Tesla is that I don’t think they can get the price that much higher and, inevitably, low margins will strangle investment if magical subscription revenue doesn’t eventually appear.

Texas Creates An EV Tax Of $200 Per Car

2022 Gmc Hummer Ev 317
Photo credit: GMC

If you’ve never lived in Texas, you might get the sense that it’s a low-tax paradise where everyone gets to keep their hard-earned money. This is mostly bupkis. Yes, there’s no state income tax for individuals, but that money tends to be made up by high, regressive sales taxes, outrageous fees, maxed out property taxes, and underfunded services.

Texas is also big (that’s not a secret) and has a lot of roads it needs to maintain. The fourth biggest source of state tax revenue in The Lone Star State? A $.20 tax on gas and diesel. Guess who doesn’t pay those taxes but uses roads? Electric cars and trucks.

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In order to come up with more money, the state’s legislature voted to levy a $200 annual fee on electric cars. Is this fair? It depends on who you ask. According to Consumer Reports, this is basically a punishment:

  • CR calculated that drivers of new gas-powered vehicles in Texas pay an average of $71 dollars in gas taxes each year.  That’s significantly less than the annual fee of $200 or more that’s been proposed for EV owners.
  • Flat fees, unlike gas taxes, do not charge people based on how much they use the roads and surrounding infrastructure. Every driver gets hit with the same fees, regardless of how much they drive.  So, EV owners who typically take shorter drives would be facing a larger financial burden compared to those who use their vehicle for long-distance travel. 

This is all true and, yet, I think this EV fee is actually a good thing, even if it would generate less than 0.3% of the state’s annual costs for maintaining the roads. Why? Because the Texas gas tax is also too low. Basically, legislators in Texas are famously fearful of doing anything that seems like they’re raising taxes (I interned for a Republican state legislator in the Texas house).

I think this, from The Dallas Morning News, pretty much sums up my feelings:

Dylan Jaff, sustainability policy analyst with Consumer Reports, opposed Nichols’ bill and a companion by House Transportation Committee chief Terry Canales, D-Edinburg.

Today, gas taxes account for just 29% of Texas highway funds, the group noted.

“The primary cause of the road funding shortfall in Texas has nothing to do with EVs, but rather with the fact that Texas has not increased their gas tax since 1991,” Jaff said in a memo.

They should levy a $200 fee on EV drivers and then they should raise gas taxes to make it comparable, i.e. approximately $0.50 per gallon. They’re not going to, of course.

It’s not clear if Governor Greg Abbott will sign the bill and make it law.

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Volkswagen Needs Scout

Scout Motors Teaser

We’ve written a lot about how Volkswagen ended up reviving the Scout brand, and there’s a good blogpost this week from global automotive intelligence firm S&P Global about the why:

The story isn’t just about the Scout; it’s about a larger sandbox for VW to play in. We see three things: First, attract new customers to your brand who wouldn’t have shopped the brand before. Dealers like that. Second, it’s about retaining customers already in your fold—but may migrate out because you don’t have these types of vehicles. And the third opportunity is about the pricing power of these vehicles—and not just the trucks themselves but also the accessories. There’s also the regulatory impact of selling more EVs as emission standards get tougher and tougher through the decade.

If you look at a company like Ford, its lineup is: Crossovers, Trucks, and Mustangs. That’s also its bet on what people will want in the future and, frankly, Ford is probably right. The Bronco has been a hit, the F-Series is still America’s best-selling vehicle, and the Mustang won the muscle car wars. All of Volkswagen’s brands in the United States make crossovers. Some of them make sports cars. None of them make trucks. Here’s more from S&P on why that’s bad:

All our data show that light-duty trucks (SUVs, pickups, especially 4x4s) transact at higher prices than passenger cars. Customers like them; OEMs like the higher prices they bring. That’s why we see cars ebbing and trucks & SUVs dominating. And off-road-capable trucks often have rich margins even before buyers start to customize them.

Also, Scout’s a rad brand. More rad brands.

Kia Sold A Bunch Of Carnivals

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I haven’t driven a Kia Carnival minivan. I need to borrow a Carnival. I think it’s a nicely-sized vehicle, and it looks great. Also, Kia sold a bunch of them on its way to a ninth-straight month of year-over-year sales according to their press release:

Following its best first quarter sales performance in company history, Kia America’s sales and market share growth continued with April delivering the brand’s ninth consecutive year-over-year monthly sales increase with 68,205 units sold, a 15.5-percent increase over the same period last year. Sales of Kia’s electrified offerings, which totaled 11,798 units, were up 74-percent over the same period last year and 22-percent over the previous monthly sales record set in March 2023. In addition, Kia’s Carnival MPV achieved record-breaking April sales posting an increase of 52-percent over the previous high in April 2021.  Kia’s SUV sales also set new records with Sportage and Telluride posting increases of 18- and 4-percent, respectively, over the previous same month records set by the models in April 2022.  Overall, Kia’s capable utility vehicles accounted for 71-percent of April sales.

Hell yeah. Vans are good.

How much of this delay is because people love vans and how much of it is because of crippling shortages that forced people to wait 11 months before they could take delivery? It’s probably a lot of the latter. Still. Vans!

The Big Question

How much should a base Model 3 cost?

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Photos: Tesla, Kia, Volkswagen, GM

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Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
11 months ago

Tesla price adjustments are no different than manufacturer, dealer, or lender incentives present in the traditional dealer/manufacturer environment. These vary from month to month and are 3 layers deep. This is a good thing. The actual price is not obfuscated nearly as much as it currently is for other brands.

J G
J G
11 months ago

Texas has no state property tax. Local governments set tax rates and collect property taxes that they use to provide local services including schools, streets, roads, police, fire protection, and more. Your locally elected officials (school trustees, city council members, county commissioners) decide your property tax burden. These local officials can also help answer questions and respond to inquiries.  

Automotiveflux
Automotiveflux
11 months ago

$2.67

Harmanx
Harmanx
11 months ago

Maybe ditch the gas tax and just charge an across-the-board car tax to both EVs and ICEVs of some amount that gets them what they need for road maintenance. I suspect it will be well below $200 per.

Livinglavidadidas
Livinglavidadidas
11 months ago
Reply to  Harmanx

We really should be doing a miles driven x weight of vehicle x some scaling factor as a road use tax. However I don’t want to go down the path of what it takes to have accurate mileage reporting.

Nlpnt
Nlpnt
11 months ago

Exactly. A Bolt owner should not be paying the same flat annual fee as a Hummer owner. With the gas tax that scaled automatically – a heavier car needed more gas to go a given distance.

V10omous
V10omous
11 months ago
Reply to  Nlpnt

The reality is the difference in wear between a Bolt and a Hummer is basically negligible. Heavy trucks cause the overwhelming majority of road damage.

Ranwhenparked
Ranwhenparked
11 months ago

I like the idea of a flat fee myself, write one check at the beginning of the year and be done with it, instead of being nickel and dimed all year long, even if it isn’t sound financially, psychologically I somehow prefer it? Maybe it’s the same mentality behind all you can eat buffets, you might not actually consume more than what $10 would buy at a normal diner, but people somehow like the thought that they can have as much as they want with no further charge beyond the original entrance

Stig's Cousin
Stig's Cousin
11 months ago
Reply to  Ranwhenparked

What about those who own multiple vehicles? A flat fee sucks if you pay the same amount for a daily driver and a project/limited use vehicle.

Imagine if David Tracy had to pay a flat fee for each vehicle in his fleet of shitboxes. He would be broke.

Last edited 11 months ago by Stig's Cousin
Frackle
Frackle
11 months ago

Washington has an EV registration fee as well. It makes intuitive sense if you don’t think too hard: a lot of road funding is paid through taxing gas, so we need to suck some money out of EV owners. Whether it makes sense to tax personal vehicle owners at all for upkeep of roads that are 100% worn down by commercial trucks… probably depends on how loud the lobbyists involved are.

Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
11 months ago
Reply to  Frackle

probably depends on how loud the lobbyists involved are.

Probably?! 😉

Toecutter
Toecutter
11 months ago

I think the base Model 3 should be reduced to $36,500. Put it in line with what profit margins on sedans are typically for OEMs. You’d be getting comparatively a lot of car for the money, considering its specs, vs those of its ICE-powered competition.

We also need an inexpensive Model 2, say somewhere around $20k, that delivers at least 200 miles range.

Torque
Torque
11 months ago

Re: “low margins will strangle investment if magical subscription revenue doesn’t eventually appear.”
Tesla (post these most recent price adjustments) is making 19% profit on each model 3 & model Y sold.
Comparatively legacy auto manufacturers make at most high single digit profits on each unit sold.
@Matt can you expand on your closing comments?
How is 19% profit per unit sold (vs. high single digit profits) equating to “low margins”?

Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
11 months ago
Reply to  Torque

How is 19% profit per unit sold (vs. high single digit profits) equating to “low margins”?

A 19% profit margin for a direct sales retailer is not good.

Dean Reimer
Dean Reimer
11 months ago

I’m not sure I agree with your last sentence. It would be low for direct sales when you’re in a market with 40% retail margins, but we keep hearing how dealers don’t make any money on car sales. If a typical dealer margin is single digits, then 19% for Tesla is still better than manufacturer+dealer combined margin.

10001010
10001010
11 months ago

Texas Rs are never ever ever going to raise the gas tax to $.50. If they did they’d have to replace all of the Joe Biden “I did that!” while pointing at the gas price stickers currently on every pump in the state. Just imagine how much that would cost!

Thomas Metcalf
Thomas Metcalf
11 months ago

Are the new Scouts just going to be bland crossovers? I bet that they will. Expectations are very low.

Parsko
Parsko
11 months ago

Cost + 20%.

This is why I will never make it in management.

VanGuy
VanGuy
11 months ago

“Hell yeah, *minivans are good.”

Don’t lump in the smaller ones with full-size ones. (Honestly I’m irrational about this, I admit it.) I kinda wish there was a different name/designation for “minivans” as a size/function.

I’m still holding out for the day I can get my hands on a conversion E-Transit. Not a camper van–just an extended body model, high roof, 6 bucket seats, and a bench seat that folds into a bed. Who cares about stopping to charge when you’re in that kind of luxury with friends?

Thomas Metcalf
Thomas Metcalf
11 months ago
Reply to  VanGuy

6 seats eh? Must be nice having that many friends.

Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
Bjorn A. Payne Diaz
11 months ago
Reply to  VanGuy

Can we make the seats behind the driver and front passenger swivel seats too?

VanGuy
VanGuy
11 months ago

That’s how they were in my old one! I have very rarely seen a van or two come up for sale with 4 bucket seats behind the driver and passenger and still have a bench behind them, but usually the conversions aren’t extended length.
Even better, the seats could be removed fairly easily for more cargo space.

MrLM002
MrLM002
11 months ago

You missed the big news! The 2024 Toyota Tacoma will have a 6 speed manual!

Thomas Metcalf
Thomas Metcalf
11 months ago
Reply to  MrLM002

This is great news. If I ever get a truck, a Taco would be in the running. Alas, they have stupid low depreciation.

MrLM002
MrLM002
11 months ago
Reply to  Thomas Metcalf

Eh, I intend on keeping any automobile I buy till I cannot drive it anymore which most of the time means depreciation is irrelevant to me.

Thomas Metcalf
Thomas Metcalf
11 months ago
Reply to  MrLM002

My problem is that I am too cheap to buy a NEW truck and then a 3 year old Tacoma is like $2k less than a new one.
Bring back $2000 beaters!!!!

Drew
Drew
11 months ago
Reply to  MrLM002

As someone who is habitually checking on the Tacoma news every Tuesday for those stupid teasers, I suspect this was written before that news dropped. The time this dropped was not long after the Toyota Insta post.

But, yes, big news. I’m still waiting for all the powertrain details. These teasers are frustrating with the slow reveal.

Dogisbadob
Dogisbadob
11 months ago
Reply to  MrLM002

w00t w0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000t

Fencing_elf
Fencing_elf
11 months ago

Obvious solution: Drop gas taxes entirely and charge everyone the extra $200 at registration. Or make it a per-mile fee and collect odometer readings (self report + 2/3yr inspections?)

SarlaccRoadster
SarlaccRoadster
11 months ago
Reply to  Fencing_elf

..or just don’t charge gas vehicles anything, just charge EVs $1000/month and use that to fix the roads; any surplus can be doled out to all the semi trucks in the state as a ‘business incentive’

/s

Last edited 11 months ago by SarlaccRoadster
Stig's Cousin
Stig's Cousin
11 months ago
Reply to  Fencing_elf

A per mile fee would be fine. I don’t like the flat fee option. I had to pay a $200 annual fee to register my Leaf and Livewire when I lived in Georgia. The $200 fee (per vehicle) is equivalent to buying ~415 gallons of gas given the state and federal gas taxes there. I didn’t mind the fee for the Leaf since I drove that car around 12,000 per year and a comparable ICE vehicle driven that amount would pay around $175 or so in gas tax. The fee was completely unreasonable for the Livewire, since I would have to ride a comparable ICE bike over 20,000 miles to pay that much in gas tax. Flat fees are ridiculously out of proportion for limited use vehicles.

Ranwhenparked
Ranwhenparked
11 months ago
Reply to  Stig's Cousin

I drive close to 50,000 miles a year, the vast majority out of state, so I would really prefer a flat system. Hell, the per mile rate wouldn’t even accurately reflect where those miles were happening anyway, why should my state get another state’s road money just because their name is on my license plate? Pennsylvania needs the help way more, that’s where the largest share of my driving happens, and their roads suck.

RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
11 months ago

Oklahoma charged me a flat $110/year for my model 3. The math was GVWR based rather than looking at the closest comparable ICE car (Corolla or Camry). My rough math of a vehicle with a similar GVWR (midsized truck or SUV) puts me in the ballpark of what I was charged.

Cheap Bastard
Cheap Bastard
11 months ago

“How much should a base Model 3 cost?”

If Tesla wants me as a customer, whatever I’m comfortable paying in cash, not a maxed out 84 month loan. How much is that? Let me check my couch.

Seriously though I am not in the market for any new car. The value just isn’t there. Even in this current market a good, used Honda or Toyota can be had for cheaper than the taxes alone on many new cars for me; lower insurance and registration costs too. Pop in a modern head unit + cameras and it’s got all the tech I care about.

Drew
Drew
11 months ago

Here in Idaho, I have to pay additional registration fees of about $50/year for my PHEV, and BEVs are $135/year. I fully expect them to go for more money soon. They love to borrow bad ideas from other states.

Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
11 months ago

A Model 3 is worth as much as people are willing to pay.

Drew
Drew
11 months ago

Instead of commenting on the question at hand, I must admit I’m following the 2024 Tacoma teasers with equal parts frustration and anticipation (honestly, it might not be equal–these little teasers are annoying and I just want the reveal). Today’s minor reveal is three pedals, which may make some folks here happy, since that was possibly in question.

That’s better to talk about than Tesla pricing.

GreatFallsGreen
GreatFallsGreen
11 months ago
Reply to  Drew

I’ll second that (on the Tacoma and teasers in general) – very curious what is coming since a hybrid is also expected.

Drew
Drew
11 months ago

They’ve confirmed at least one hybrid option: i-Force MAX has been confirmed. I’m hoping there’s also a more efficiency-minded hybrid option offered alongside it, but we’ll see.

TurboCruiser
TurboCruiser
11 months ago

Ohio has also implemented an annual $200 EV tax. Except they implemented it in the most brain-dead way. Plug-in hybrids (which also use gas 50-80% of the time depending on the vehicle and length of trip) are also charged the full $200. But wait, it gets better. ANY regular hybrid vehicle (which runs solely on gasoline) must pay a lesser $100 fee. My wife’s non-PHEV C-Max gets worse mpg than my non-hybrid Sonic, yet, she has to pay the $100 extra fee each year.

I understand recouping the loss of gasoline taxes, but this is the stupidest way to do it. I don’t know if the law was passed by people who don’t understand the differences between hybrids, PHEVs, and EVs, or was it an intentional overreach that slipped by? Either way we are stuck with it for the foreseeable future.

PaysOutAllNight
PaysOutAllNight
11 months ago
Reply to  TurboCruiser

I don’t know how Ohio could’ve done this in a worse way.

If it’s not outright stupidity, it’s probably an intentional “Hyuk, hyuk, let’s punish the Tree-huggin’ Libs!” thing more than it is an actual attempt at good public policy.

Last edited 11 months ago by PaysOutAllNight
Dean Reimer
Dean Reimer
11 months ago

it’s probably an intentional “Hyuk, hyuk, let’s punish the Tree-huggin’ Libs!” thing more than it is an actual attempt at good public policy.


It’s Ohio, so that checks out.

Chris with bad opinions
Chris with bad opinions
11 months ago
Reply to  TurboCruiser

Considering how stupid the leadership in this state is, this is no surprise at all. Of course, the inbred hicks voting for idiots like DeSwine and Jackass Douchebag Vance are too stupid to realize any of this is happening.

GreatFallsGreen
GreatFallsGreen
11 months ago

I would assume Kia reports the car as presold, but they aren’t the only one that has long waits. Kia could actually be picking up minivan sales from Honda/Toyota with their delays. A friend of a friend went van shopping some time last year and stopped at Toyota first – but it was going to be several months before a Sienna would arrive, after the next kid would have arrived. A stop at Honda had the same result, but a year-or-less-old Odyssey had just been taken in on trade, so they jumped on that when they had the chance.

First Last
First Last
11 months ago

Tesla famously has no Marketing or PR budget. And why would they, when ad supported sites like the Autopian keep giving them gallons of virtual ink absolutely free every time they arbitrarily move prices up or down a few bucks? I mean here we are debating psychological pricing theory in a long-scroll post because they moved the price of a $50k car by a fraction of a percent.

tl;dr maybe the Autopian shouldn’t give Tesla free press every time Elon scratches his dick.

Cheap Bastard
Cheap Bastard
11 months ago
Reply to  First Last

Because Autopian ink =/= corporate shill ink. The Autopian can call out Tesla as a shitty company on the verge of collapse, it’s products as unmitigated grossly overpriced POS and Tesla buyers as insecure posers trying to buy virtue and basement dwelling, mouth breathing trollish losers IF they felt that were the case AND had evidence to support it.

SarlaccRoadster
SarlaccRoadster
11 months ago
Reply to  Cheap Bastard

I mean.. almost everything you said could be debated, except for the “Tesla is on the verge of collapse”.

There’s hatred, and there’s irrational hatred; no matter how hard you hate on them, you shouldn’t try to hide from the reality that they have the highest margins in the industry (by far) and the highest market share* of BEVs (by far), and the rate with which their competitors are “catching up” is very aspirational right now.

*i’m not gonna count various chinese carmakers who only sell in China, or lump their BEV numbers with hybrids

Last edited 11 months ago by SarlaccRoadster
Lockleaf
Lockleaf
11 months ago

FWIW, he didn’t actually state he believed any of the things he said. He stated Autopian could call those things out if they wanted and had the proof. I think he left room for the debating you mention.

Patrick George
Patrick George
11 months ago
Reply to  First Last

Like it or not, Tesla’s still the disruptive newsmaker in this space. You wouldn’t have CEOs from countless other companies weighing in on EV price cuts if that weren’t the case.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
11 months ago

Thanks for calling out the Moon Swatch. I dabble in watches myself. I’d hardly call myself an expert or a collector but I have a handful of pretty nice ones that I alternate based on use case and what pairs best with my outfits. The hype around the Moon Swatch is absurd. People are losing their shit because they think they’re getting an Omega for Swatch prices…but in reality it’s pretty much just a normal Swatch that Omega let them borrow design cues for and slap their name on. I’m not even sure if they’re worth what they cost new (I believe it’s around $250) and yet I see them selling online for $500-$1,000.

Hard, hard pass. Obviously this phenomenon applies to cars as well and once social media gets a hold of something it’s game over. Idiots will happily incinerate their money to be able to post about the fact that they’re one of the first to have THE THING! We’re seeing it with all the damn GRCs and CTRs that are selling for $50,000-$75,000 right now. I also get frustrated when journalists who claim they’re trying to educate people on how ridiculous hype can be then turn around and gush over the thing that’s overhyped.

I was kind of disappointed that RCR spent the whole GR Corolla video absolutely gushing over it after Brian took a more measured approach to reviewing some other super hyped cars like the Ioniq 5, Toyobaru, and IS500…but then again deep down he’s a JDM fanboy like so many others. Oh well.

Tesla prices are complicated because the market dictates that they’ve largely been worth what they’re charging until fairly recently. I think much of the price slashing has been due to the fact that a lot of automakers have caught up to them. Teslas still have the ace in the hole supercharger network for now and their range is still top notch but most other new EVs are a lot more interesting from a design standpoint at this stage…not to mention their interiors aren’t a complete dystopian tech nightmare.

I’m not sure how many folks have actually sat in a Tesla but they’re econoboxes with some lipstick on them interior wise. I remember getting in one for the first time in maybe 2017 or 18 and being like “wait that’s it?!?”. They haven’t changed since then either. It’s like sitting in a corporate office park furnished by IKEA in the early to mid 2000s….

I think a decently equipped model 3 before tax breaks is worth about $39,999 at most. They offer the best range and charging but in pretty much every other way they’re less compelling than the Korean competitors at the moment. Their price should reflect that. You’re willingly choosing a worse looking car with an inferior interior and supporting an absolute asshat of a CEO. Those things matter.

Ugh I wish the Carnival sales were something to celebrate but this is almost certainly due to the fact that you can’t get any desirable mid sized SUV for months at this point unless you’re willing to pay way over MSRP. My in laws just had to replace two of their appliances with a RAV 4 and CRV and the only way they could get close to what they wanted within a few months was to skip the hybrids. I also skim listings for Tellurides, Pilots, Palisades, etc. every now and then because we may need something bigger soon and people frequently ask me to find them cars.

There ain’t much out there. I think folks who need a family hauler now and can’t be talked into a horrendous financial decision (good for them) are more or less settling for things like the Carnival. I hope to be wrong though, as an Autopian I took an oath to preach the virtues of vans and wagons for the rest of my life and I’d love to see both make comebacks.

Last edited 11 months ago by Nsane In The MembraNe
Nick Ginther
Nick Ginther
11 months ago

I purposely bought a van instead of an SUV when when our second kid was born. Didn’t even entertain a Telluride or similar. Sliding door are 100000x more practical with small kids and in daycare parking lots (or at least in ours where none of the 3 row SUV drivers know how to park straight).

I like big SUVs. I’d love to have Suburban or a Expedition XL, but I am not going to give up the sliding doors until my kids are out of car seats.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
11 months ago
Reply to  Nick Ginther

I’m trying to vanpill my wife but it’s definitely a process

Andrew Wyman
Andrew Wyman
11 months ago

Let me know if you find any tricks, because I am also trying to vanpill my wife. We may have to create a Slack channel for our machinations.

Nick Ginther
Nick Ginther
11 months ago
Reply to  Andrew Wyman

I didn’t have to do much… I am the one that drives the van everyday. We traded in her Hyundai Tucson for the van, she took my Outback 3.6R Touring which was a step up in several ways for her. I don’t think she’d pick the Outback if she was buying a car today, but she wasn’t mad about it. She was pretty adamant that she didn’t want to drive a van, but didn’t care other than that. Win/win because I did want to drive a van.

Cheap Bastard
Cheap Bastard
11 months ago

Just buy a used one for cheap for yourself and let her jealousy do the rest.

V10omous
V10omous
11 months ago

You will not truly convince her until you actually have the kid and all their stuff and try to load it into a vehicle without sliding doors and all the space in back.

Once that happens, you’ll be at the dealership shopping within a few weeks. We had our first van by the time my son was 2 months old. We owned two full size sedans at the time, and it’s just not the same.

Data
Data
11 months ago
Reply to  V10omous

What are you people carrying with your kids? My first child was done with a regular cab 1995 Nissan truck and a Honda Accord. With a 12 year gap, my second child was done with a second gen Prius and a Civic.

Lockleaf
Lockleaf
11 months ago
Reply to  Data

I’m in this boat. I frequently laugh at people with one kid and a minivan. First kid was in a Protege 5 and a 97 Pathfinder. Once the second came along, we hauled both kids in a Saabaru wagon and a Saab 97x (yes I have a thing for pseudo-Saabs). Worked just fine. Not once did we feel the need to rush to a dealership and buy van.

V10omous
V10omous
11 months ago
Reply to  Lockleaf

Congrats to you both I guess?

More space makes things easier, sliding doors do as well, a larger backseat means my legroom isn’t cramped by a rear-facing car seat behind me, and so on.

I’ve driven my kids around at various times in a Viper, a 911, an MR2 Spyder, and a Fiesta so yes, of course it’s possible to squeeze in somewhere smaller, but why would you want to?

A F
A F
11 months ago
Reply to  Data

You need the van for the second kid, not the first. And the reason is car seats. They are huge, especially rear facing which is now a requirement in my state until they turn two. I could not fit one directly behind me in my Acura TL. It was fine when we had one kid, because it could go in the middle of the back seat. But when the second one came along, there was no way to fit both.

Also stroller. We spent several hours a day outside with the kids, so a full size stroller was a must. It’s a serious PITA getting these things emptied out and folded to fit in the trunk. And once it’s in there, you aren’t getting much else in. Trips are a real problem.

Finally, there’s the grandparents issue if they don’t live locally. You can’t fit 2 kids in car seats and 4 adults in a 2 row vehicle.

Last edited 11 months ago by A F
Cerberus
Cerberus
11 months ago
Reply to  Data

It’s the massive GD ejection seats parents are forced to get that increase in size every year. It’s a fucking scam. I remember reading about some guy who questioned the efficacy of these one-size-fits-none-all seats and paid for his own crash testing comparo with a forward-facing landfill-clogging (they can’t even be donated after a few years of use as they “expire” even though they’re made of materials that don’t break the fuck down in the environment and any UV elasticity breakdown would take far longer and more direct exposure), larger-vehicle-demanding seat against a seat belt with a height-adjustable shoulder appropriate for kid sizes and the results were about a wash in terms of safety with a properly installed seat, a large percentage of which are not properly installed.

A F
A F
11 months ago

Here’s what I did. Take your full size stroller with you on the test drive. Take it out of your current car and set it up with all the crap in the basket. Have her put it in the back of a 3 row CUV with the back seats up. She’s going to have to pull everything back out and fold the stroller to fit it in.

Take it back out, set it all up and go to the minivan. Open hatch, drop the fully set up stroller in, close hatch.

If that doesn’t work, take kid and car seat to the test drive, install them and go park next to another car in a parking lot. Have her get the kid in and out of the car seat with the minivan vs the CUV.

GreatFallsGreen
GreatFallsGreen
11 months ago

I doubt anyone that wasn’t already going to look at vans, is going to settle for a van. There’s fewer van brands out there, Odyssey and Sienna are just as hard to get, and brand loyalty has been declining over the last couple years. Pilots being new are extra tough to get (much less a deal I’m sure, and Telluride and Palisade are long the segment favs. If someone can’t get those, they’ll likely look to other comparable crossovers first. The Ascent and Atlas seem to have much more availability based on my area – older designs that aren’t as loved by the rags.

Drew
Drew
11 months ago

My sister ended up with a van when she finally realized that they are the better option for three rows and strapping kids into car seats. I think she will end up with an SUV with captain’s chairs for her next one because there’ll be far more of those than vans. Which is too bad.

Unclesam
Unclesam
11 months ago

after years of waiting for the id.buzz, patience finally ran out and we put a deposit down on a Pacifica Hybrid last week. The MSRP has gone up so much over the last two years, since the last time I’d really looked, that it prompted an 11th hour “maybe we can get over how ugly the Sienna is for 36mpg, if they’re available under $40k.” Of course, they’re not. Used ones are still selling for well over their original price if you can find them at all.

We also spared a thought for the Carnival (which actually looks pretty nice) and Odyssey (which does not), but low 20s mpg is a non-starter.

There doesn’t seem to be a ton of inventory for the PH on the ground, but there are some. Better still are the handful of low-mile one or two year old examples that can be found in the mid-high 30s if you don’t mind looking. Still a silly amount of money for a vehicle, but a relative bargain.

Nick Ginther
Nick Ginther
11 months ago

I got lucky with our Carnival when we bought it in April 21, they had just been released and I bought one sight unseen while it was still on the west coast. It took about 3 weeks to get to Kansas City. Didn’t have to wait and I didn’t see another one for months after that. Fast forward to today I saw 3 on my way to work this morning. It has been an ideal vehicle for our family.

Andrew Wyman
Andrew Wyman
11 months ago
Reply to  Nick Ginther

What are your favorite things about it so far? Things that set it apart from other vans you may have driven or ridden in?

Nick Ginther
Nick Ginther
11 months ago
Reply to  Andrew Wyman

When we got it, it had just been released and it caught my eye because it looked completely different than any other van on the market. I still appreciate the looks of it compared to the Toyota or Honda.

We drove all the options including a Sedona and a Pacifica. I would have bought the Sedona if carmax was such an annoying company. It was fine. The Siena was just sort of boring, same for the Odyssey, though I liked it better. The Pacific I drove was nice, but something about the interior just didn’t do it for me. I like the stow n go seat idea, but ALL the seats were just so thin it felt sort of like flying Spirt.

I didn’t dive or even sit in a Carnival until I took delivery (which is sort of crazy). But the seats are substantial and have been comfortable to me on 8+ hr drives. We got the EX model which I feel was the best bang for the buck. It got me the big screen nav system and a few other tech items like the passenger view camera. Honestly there isn’t a ton that isn’t available in other vans BUT the Carnival to me just looks soo much better. It doesn’t just look like a big blob. Plus Kia kills it with light design.

V10omous
V10omous
11 months ago

Tesla changing prices all the time is no different in practice than legacy automakers adjusting incentive programs monthly or quarterly.

Pre 2021, no one batted an eye at the idea that a car or truck might cost something different depending on what month you went to the dealership, or even at what time during the month.

This is just the direct sales version of that.

As for the EV tax, we’ve had one for a while in Indiana. Hell, we even charge $50 extra annually to hybrid drivers (Not sure if it’s plug-in only or all hybrids). Doesn’t seem like its made a bit of difference either to road quality or EV sales.

TurboCruiser
TurboCruiser
11 months ago
Reply to  V10omous

Ohio charges $100 to any regular hybrid. You know, vehicles that run solely on gasoline and do not plug into the electric grid. It’s idiotic.

Cheap Bastard
Cheap Bastard
11 months ago
Reply to  TurboCruiser

Hybrids use less gas and thus pay less that way while wearing down the roads just as much.

Drew
Drew
11 months ago
Reply to  V10omous

It’s only different in how Tesla leverages their price changes to get people talking. Other companies advertise their deals to get people in and Tesla just lets everyone else talk about it.

Last edited 11 months ago by Drew
Strangek
Strangek
11 months ago
Reply to  V10omous

Agreed. Obviously if it’s Truck Month there will be smokin’ deals to be had, it doesn’t mean we all freak out when Truck Month ends and prices go back up. Tesla just needs to brand this shit like Toyotathon or something.

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